Task Facing The Pirates This Winter Looks Nearly Impossible
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 7, 2011 9:32 AM EST
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PrintCShint in the comments to the Clint Barmes thread:
I'm just curious - who would we be happy with? Not every move that can/should be made is going to be perfect. We spend a lot of time looking at the negatives of signing players and rightfully so, but in seriousness, who do we think would realistically be a good free agent signing? I ask because just about every name that is linked with the pirates gets shut down very quickly as to why they would be a bad fit.
WTM in response:
It’s just a function of the fact that the FA market doesn’t work for the Pirates, especially not with a FO that’s dead set against overpaying, which of course is the only way the PIrates have a chance to sign a useful player. Aside from a reliever or two, the Pirates’ FA signings not only haven’t helped, but have almost always made things worse. So it’s not hard to see why people are pretty sour on the whole process.
This article I wrote six weeks ago sums things up pretty well. Just thinking about things on a general level, the Pirates are entering a market in which they typically have less to spend than other teams. (They should have a bit of money this year, but the big-ticket items, and probably also the medium-ticket items, will still be out of their price range.) They're also entering a market in which players can choose not to play for them, and most players would prefer not to unless the Pirates overpay. It's also a market in which most players are older and past their primes, and it would be very silly for the Pirates to get themselves in trouble by handing out long contracts that cover future seasons in which they might be poised to compete. And as WTM points out, the Pirates also have a front office that would rather have a root canal than overpay (which obviously isn't the worst trait in the world, but it doesn't help when the Pirates have all these other factors going against them).
That's a bad collection of circumstances, folks, and the Pirates are in a spot where they have no catcher, no first baseman, no shortstop, and arguably no third baseman, and they also need to fill at least one and perhaps two spots in their starting rotation. When you're the Pirates, fixing problems like those is really not what the free agent market is for. If you want to grab some relievers, great. And feel free to take some fliers on minor league free agents - most of them won't work out, but one time in every 25 or so you'll get a Garrett Jones.
But for starting pitchers or lineup fixtures, no. I mean, I'll believe it when I see it. The last time the Pirates got a valuable starting pitcher or lineup fixture as a major-league free agent was 2002-2003, when there was collusion and a couple of players signed with the Pirates because they pretty much had to. Literally, nine years ago. There hasn't been one since then. And now the Pirates are in a situation where they'll have to get four to five starting pitchers or lineup fixtures to even have a halfway competitive team. They'll have to do that by late March. Good luck to them! If it were one player they needed, that would be one thing, but it's not even close to that. There are, of course, trades, but in trades you typically have to get players whose current teams don't feel are worth their contracts, or you have to give up talent. In either case, the Pirates are going to have to be pretty darn creative to get things done.
I'll say this - this offseason will certainly be interesting. Maybe Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have a plan that I don't see coming at all. They're certainly acting like they do. Or maybe they only think they do, and we're going to end up with a bunch of Lyle Overbays again.
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It's not that depressing
The team fighting for a playoff spot in late July included Overbay at first, Cedeno at short and McKenry catching. Are the Pirates going to have worse players at all three spots in April? I don’t think so. In fact, I’m hoping they’ll have players who are equal or better at all three positions.
I disagree. I’m not a Barmes fan, but he’s equal to or better than Cedeno. A catcher such as Barajas or Hernandez is better than McKenry. A first-baseman such as Clint Robinson would probably be better than Overbay. The Pirates could also shift Pedro to first and get a third baseman who can hit better than Overbay. I personally think Blake Dewitt could have a mini-breakout next season. I’d also sign Tony Abreu as depth; I believe he would be an upgrade on Brandon Wood. That, to me, is a better offense, and it’s obtainable.
As far as replacing Maholm, I believe Francis or Capuano are similar pitchers. Jonathan Sanchez was a possibility, but he and a prospect were dealt today for Melky Cabrera.
I’m not a Barmes fan, but he’s equal to or better than Cedeno
He’s also fairly likely to re-sign with the Astros or get poached by a higher-profile club.
A catcher such as Barajas or Hernandez is better than McKenry.
I am unconvinced that this is true for Barajas, and I am unconvinced that Hernandez won’t have better options available to him.
A first-baseman such as Clint Robinson would probably be better than Overbay.
And what about the value of the player we’re trading to pick up Robinson?
I’d also sign Tony Abreu as depth; I believe he would be an upgrade on Brandon Wood.
He might be, but that’s only because Wood is awful.
As far as replacing Maholm, I believe Francis or Capuano are similar pitchers.
Similar, but inferior.
I’m not sure Francis and Capuano will be inferior to Maholm next season. I would agree that Maholm is the most likely to stay healthy, but that’s no guarantee.
I don’t know what it would take to get Robinson, Dewitt or some other blocked or overlooked player or prospect. It’s Neal’s job to find out. I’m just pointing out that there are other avenues to acquiring talent than the FA list.
What’ll it’ll take for the Pirates to sign anybody worthwhile is to follow the Jayson Werth model. They’re going to have to make somebody an offer he can’t refuse. I’m not saying they should or shouldn’t do this—like any other strategy, if the execution is good it can work out. The Gnats’ execution was bad.
But I just don’t think the Pirates can handle this sort of approach. They’ve tried it before, but they weren’t willing to go the extra mile. De la Rosa was an example. (And, yes, it’s just as well they didn’t sign him, but that’s not the point here.) They had a realistic shot at him because the Rockies had prioritized several other pitchers over him and the big spenders were focused on Cliff Lee. The Pirates’ only chance was to make DLR an offer he was unlikely to top later and put a time limit on it. Instead, they made a “competitve,” i.e., market value offer and failed to get him signed in time. The Rockies’ other targets all signed elsewhere, they turned back to DLR and he agreed to terms almost the moment they made him an offer, since he really just wanted to stay in Colorado.
This happened with Sano, too. (I realize I’m running the risk of igniting the whole NH vs. the agent debate, which I’m REALLY not trying to do.) Nobody else was making offers because the agent told them not to, but NH did anyway, which is fine. But to make that work, he needed to go in with a big offer. Instead, he refused to increase his offer because nobody else was bidding, even though it was obvious other teams eventually would bid. NH offered less than what Wagner Mateo got, and Sano was easily the more highly regarded of the two. (It was only later that Mateo flunked his physical and his contract was voided.) NH missed his chance because he was so concerned about not paying a dime more than he had to pay.
Of course, you can argue that the Pirates SHOULDN’T overpay, but the problem is that, if they’re not willing to do so, they should just stay the fuck out of the FA market altogether. Unless they radically change their approach, it’s just a formula for failure. And there’s absolutely no evidence that they’re willing to change their approach.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Anecdote about the Werth signing that amuses me:
Boras is legendary for playing one GM off another to drive up the price on his clients. When the Nats offered their deal, however, he apparently didn’t say “Well, we have to talk to other teams, we’ll be in touch” he IMMEDIATELY said “Done deal.”
Should’ve been the first clue to Washington they hysterically overpaid.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Here's what Werth gave them for Washington at the cost of $10.5 million
.232 BA 20 HRs 718 OPS 2.1 WAR (bbref)
This is why you DON’T give big contracts to players who have career years when they’re otherwise 4th OFs
the Pirates should continue with what they do best. Draft talent and pay them at their highest value. That’s how we’re able to get the Bells and Coles of the world.
The scary part is not this year, but the upcoming ones
In a long term contract, you generally get a deal at the front end, and they paid market value for his 2WAR this year. Unless he really turns it around, this is going to get really ugly.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 7, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
4th outfielder? I agree it was a bad contract, but Werth had been a very good player for 4 consecutive years before he signed with Washington.
by Monkeyking42 on Nov 8, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
At least NH appears to have learned his lesson after the Sano fiasco
I was afraid the Heredia negotiations would turn out the same way, but he didn’t get into a pissing match over price and landed him.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I agree...
that if the Pirates are not willing to overpay on free agents, just stay the hell out of the market. Signing a Lyle Overbay to play 1B for a year is not what we need. I’d frankly rather see Hague/Jones at 1B than to go get another Overbay that would get released before August.
Barring unforseen actions by the front office, this team is still going to suck in 2012. What we don’t need is 3 free agent signings like Correia/Diaz/Overbay, and NH/FC telling us how much they are going to improve the team. Don’t piss on the fans and tell them it’s raining. If we are going to suck, either do it with the kids, or with players you are going to have around for more than a year or two.
It is quite possible that you were not part of this crowd
but the give the young guys a shot approach is what the Bucs tried to do in 2010 (only they did it with the former top prospects like Clement, Milledge, Laroche, Bowker instead of AAAA guys like Hague) and they were, and in some circles continue to be, crushed for it. I’m not saying it was the wrong approach and in fact, I like what they tried to do in 2010 but it’s not surprising why they aren’t excited to do it again. Not only that, there is more potential for success this year than in 2010 with a handful of guys who are, at the very least, interesting, so it’s hard to justify not putting more reliable guys around them to keep from demoralizing the guys like Cutch, Tabata, McDonald etc. Like him or not, D-Lee would probably be a safer play at first than Matt Hague.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 7, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
No...they didn't try the young guys doing it in 2010.
Certainly not at the beginning of the season. Their opening day roster had such memorables as you mentioned (Clement, Milledge, Laroche, all failed prospects), Iwamura, Church, Crosby, Young, Carrasco, Donnelly, Lopez, Dotel, Taschner, etc. Bowker wasn’t acquired until the trade deadline.
That’s NOT a young roster. They eventually brought up the young guys (Alvarez, Walker, Tabata) but that wasn’t until June. And in the case of Walker, it wouldn’t have happened then if Iwamura wasn’t so terrible.
That’s NOT a young roster.
Actually, it is. Most of the guys you cite were bench players and relievers. I’d have preferred a younger bench, but relievers typically are older because most of them are failed starters. Clement and LaRoche were 26 (and LaRoche, acquired a year and a half ago, was already on thin ice), Milledge was 25. The average age for a hitter is about 29. Those three are failed prospects now. They weren’t when the Pirates acquired them.
Part of the point of KP’s post, I’m guessing, is that the same people who blast the Pirates for signing FAs and not going with younger guys will also usually blast them for going with younger guys. Refusing to fill positions with the Clint Barmeses of the world is going to mean filling them with prospects who have warts. Nobody has a half dozen blue chip, can’t-fail prospects just waiting to step in. Either you’ll go with a Chase d’Arnaud, who clearly isn’t ready, or you’ll pick up somebody like Milledge, who was formerly regarded as a top flight prospect but who was struggling to fulfill expectations. If the Pirates do that, a lot of the same people who’ll blast them for signing Barmes will blast them for going with prospects who have flaws.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, you summed it up nicely
this
Refusing to fill positions with the Clint Barmeses of the world is going to mean filling them with prospects who have warts. Nobody has a half dozen blue chip, can’t-fail prospects just waiting to step in.
was really what I was getting at.
Also, as you said above, while the 2010 roster did have some older guys like Aki, Crosby and Church, the team also gave starting positions for young(er) guys who had not proven they could play in the bigs but were good in the minor leagues (Laroche, Milledge and Clement all started opening day). This is a category that Chase d’Arnaud, Brad Lincoln (who I’ll admit, I think deserves an extended look) and Matt Hague would actually fit into. d’Arnaud will be 25 next year, Hague will be 26 and Lincoln will be 27. In 2010, Milledge was 25, while Laroche and Clement were both 26. Choosing to fill 3 large holes with unproven, older “prospects” instead of Pirate-tiered free agents is very similar to the much maligned 2010 strategy.
Unless the organization shocks the world by spending $50M in free agency this year, you will have people saying that their strategy this offseason was wrong (regardless of which path they take). If that strategy fails, like it did with the young guys in ‘10 or the vets in ’11, that criticism will grow even louder. If, however, their decisions panned out-they probably could have signed Kotchman, Colon and Francoeur (combined WAR=8) just as easily as they signed Correia, Overbay and Diaz (combined WAR as Pirates=-0.9)-then those same people will act like they supported NH’s moves the entire time.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 7, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
And let's be fair
The outcomes from the guys you name in 2010 constitute a bit of bad luck: for all three to crap out completely was not, I think, the most likely outcome. It would have been exceptional luck for all 3 to make a meaningful difference on a 105-loss team, but getting a half dozen WAR out of the bunch of them wouldn’t have been an outlandish prediction. Instead we got 0.0.
I’d say the spread of outcomes we got from the various young guys we needed in 2011 is more typically what you see from a team plugging holes with non-stellar prospects: adequate performance from a couple (Harrison, Wood), serious not-readiness from a couple (d’Arnaud, Bowker), and a breakout (Presley).
This is why I liked the 2010 approach
Let’s say that season played out exactly the same EXCEPT, Jeff Clement rebounded and became a passable defensive 1B capable of posting a .790 OPS with good power. Essentially, the Pirates would have filled one of their biggest holes with Gaby Sanchez AND would control him until 2016. That’s very valuable. Even if filling those 3 openings with veterans instead of the “prospects” meant the team only lost 85 games instead of 105 (and a 20 game swing is an enormous difference) filling that spot was more important to that team, that year.
Obviously, it didn’t work out that way, but I don’t think it was out of the question to think that one of those 3 former top prospects could have become a ML starter. While Clement was probably the least likely to succeed out of that group, Milledge (‘08) and Laroche (’09) had both had decent full seasons in the majors and, given their pedigree, gambling that one guy in that group panned out was a reasonable bet.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 7, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
worth noting
It’s not like they haven’t been signing a lot of free-agent busts; for the most part they haven’t been signing anyone who’s meant to be a starter. Since Littlefield’s Randa/Burnitz spree in the ‘05-’06 offseason, I think the only guys who fit that description are Tony Armas, Overbay, and Correia, maybe Scott Olsen if you want to stretch a point really really far.*
Now, in one way this might just reinforce your point — Jorge de la Rosa isn’t on this list because he won’t sign with us. But I don’t think that it proves that any free agent who signs with us has to be a suckpile, if we aim for something relatively modest, which we should anyway. If they sign Clint Barmes for $5m, it’s not a guarantee that he’ll turn into a pile of ashes.
I mean, I think they should’ve picked up the options on Maholm and Cedeno, but I don’t think the record shows that the Pirates have been repeatedly trying and failing here.
*I was going to make a joke about whatever muscle Olsen pulled, but when I search for “Scott Olsen injury” I get a bunch of stuff that’s not about baseball.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 10:06 AM EST reply actions
gah - typo in the first sentence
It’s not like they have been signing a lot of free agent busts.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
There was also the mondesi/Simon/stynes explosion in 2004. But yeah, it’s broadly true that they’ve approached the offseason in the past as if they had fewer holes to fill than they do now.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 7, 2011 10:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think you can ignore guys like Ramon Vazquez, Ryan Church, et al. Even in looking for backups, the Pirates have generally been restricted to the guys nobody else wanted, and most of the backups NH has signed have been crap, too.
The pattern has been so consistent that I really don’t think you need a hundred FA signings to prove it. And it’s been remarkably consistent between NH’s and DL’s regimes, which says a lot.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
I was responding to Charlie's point, which was about starters
If bench bats count, then I think we ought to look at the bullpen too, where NH has occasionally been modestly successful.
(FWIW, the D-backs were in on Vazquez, and we did lure him away by giving him an extra year. Which makes the point about having to overpay; but is there anyone else on that list who isn’t basically Some Dude who was signed for less than $2M? NH should certainly be able to sign better bench filler, but I don’t think you can extrapolate from his fondness for cheap crappy bench bats to what might happen when he looks for someone who’s supposed to be better. I mean, I’m not optimistic, but if we’re looking at attempts to sign significant FA’s, that’s what we should be looking at.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
we did lure him away by giving him an extra year. Which makes the point about having to overpay
Well, I’d argue that they also overpaid for Overbay and Correia. So they’re willing to overpay guys who make the team worse but not guys who make it better, which is worse than not being willing to overpay at all.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure about Overbay
Part of what made his signing so bad was that we had viable alternatives that projected to be comparable in value but at much lower cost. But Overbay projected to be roughly equal in value to Jones (similar offense, better defense), who did, in fact, provide about $5M in value in 2011.
Now, the collapse risk was probably greater (although there were plenty who expected Jones to be much less valuable in 2011 than he was, and Pearce and Clement speak for themselves), but I’d say that the Overbay overpay was minimal, if it existed at all. It was a foolish use of resources, but I don’t think it was an overpay in the sense that Werth was/is. Or, to stay in a similar payscale, the Rivas contract.
the Pirates are in a spot where they have no catcher, no first baseman, no shortstop, and arguably no third baseman, and they also need to fill at least one and perhaps two spots in their starting rotation.
……I would say we were missing these pieces even before we let half the roster go! My personal issue is this (and IMO I may be in the minority but probably not alone) we could keep the Doumit’s and Cedeno’s of the league because they offer good value for the dollar but quite frankly I’m sick and tired of that argument…….we can keep them (and similar types) and keep losing-GREAT! Last I checked it’s not my money being spent and probably not other’s on this blog so I EXPECT management to seriously upgrade the roster. Now, I’m not foolish enough to think that we are gonna grab the top-tier guys or even one for that matter however, as a fan base I believe we may be drinking the “small market” Kool-Aid because that’s all we’ve read and heard about for like a gazillion years. They’ve spent tons on the draft and I’m happy with that and think that’s part of the equation but now it IS time to upgrade the MLB roster for NEXT year as well via FA, genetic engineering or trade(s).
by Marooned Pirate on Nov 7, 2011 10:08 AM EST reply actions
and hey
According to this story, it sounds like the Burnitz turned down a better offer to come to the Bucs! That could happen again!
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 10:10 AM EST reply actions
How does a front office so determined to not give one thin dime more than market rate....
…end up paying 5 million to Lyle Overybay and giving multiple years to Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz?
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
to be fair
Diaz was to be a platoon player and his career splits show that it was a smart move at the time for only 2M, it was also meant to help GFJ out by getting in some rest vs LHP. That didnt pan out.
As for Correia, well, only 4M. I cant argue against giving an average pitcher 4M. At times he has the stuff to do what he did early in the season, but also can give you performances like the last half. His value in terms of WAR isn’t very high, but for 4M its not a bad price.
Overbay was brought in for defense. Trying to stabilize the infield didnt work out as Overbay committed errors and couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag. Again career stats would have said otherwise in terms of fielding and would suggest a bit better offense from him but once again, didn’t pan out.
I really dont know what it is about coming to Pittsburgh to play but its as if FA signees just lose all their skill/talent/motivation/whatever once they get here, its quite strange
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
4M on a 1 year deal for Correia on a "hope he bounces back" flyer ...
…would have been a good idea. Two years at that price was making a bad bet.
It’ll be the same way if they land, say, Capuano this season. 3 or 4MM for 1 year? All for it. Two years? No way.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
huh?
So, its okay to sign Capuano this year even though he is similar to Correia. but its not okay to sign Correia for two years. Just pretend we didn’t have Correia and signed him to a one year deal for $4 million this year and you should feel better.
I find it odd that Correia gets so much abuse, when he is really just slightly lees of a pitcher than Maholm for half the price. Lets not forget that it was Correia’s pitching in the first half that really led to this team finally winning on the road.
by ballparkfranks on Nov 7, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
i dont understand the correia and overbay and diaz hate either
we won with them all, and correia REALLY DID pitch fairly well the first half
i dont understand the correia and overbay and diaz hate either
They didn’t play well, and are being criticized for not playing well. What’s not to get?
correia REALLY DID pitch fairly well the first half
Yes, and then he pitched so badly in the second half that he completely cancelled out all the value he had generated in the first. Hence the criticism.
and we’ve lost hundreds of games with both Maholm and Doumit on the roster
What does that have to do with anything? We lost those games in spite of Maholm and Doumit, not because of them, and we would’ve lost even more games during that time without them.
by Vlad on Nov 7, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
so youre saying that Maholm and Doumit are not part of the problem over the last half decade?
we win because of them but we lose in spite of them???
I’m puzzled as to why this would be a hard one to figure out. Was Brian Giles “part of the problem” with the Pirates because the teams he was on were bad?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 7, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
theres really nothing to figure out.
people on here are overvaluing certain players like they always do.
i dont know if its because theyve met the guy or even interviewed them and they came off as a swell fellah.
ive said for weeks now that Maholm had one of his best seasons in 2011. and that i wouldnt mind if he came back. but saying that 2012 is over already simply because the FO thinks they can do better is coming off as bitterness, like they just bought a brand new Doumit batting practice jersey and he ends up playing for the Mariners
i dont know if its because theyve met the guy or even interviewed them and they came off as a swell fellah.
I met Maholm once, for about fifteen minutes at a blogger meeting, and he seemed like an OK guy, but we didn’t form a connection or anything like that. I’ve never met Doumit.
ive said for weeks now that Maholm had one of his best seasons in 2011.
It was only “one of his best seasons” in the sense that he’s basically given us the same performance every year he’s been with the team.
saying that 2012 is over already simply because the FO thinks they can do better is coming off as bitterness
He’s better than any player we’re likely to be able to sign in free agency, based on past precedent. That’s an objective analysis of the situation. In what way is it “bitter”?
see, you said likely... youre assuming the worst
and Maholm absolutely did NOT pitch the same way he always had. he pounded the inside, kept the hitters off balance, helped himself by not having the “big inning”…
see, you said likely… youre assuming the worst
Sure, but not without cause. If you jump off a cliff, assuming that it’ll hurt when you hit the ground is a perfectly sensible position to take.
and Maholm absolutely did NOT pitch the same way he always had. he pounded the inside, kept the hitters off balance, helped himself by not having the "big inning"…
In your subjective opinion. By the numbers, his rate stats are pretty much level (save for a gradual downward trend in his GB rate).
forget the numbers. just for one day.
go back and watch film of Maholm from 2009 and then some of 2011. you can easily tell that his gameplan was different, that he was more aggresive.
im going to say it again, its more than just numbers.
its more than just who is his fricken shortstop. maholm has had both good and poor fielders behind him and hes pitched both well and poorly with them all.
im going to say it again, its more than just numbers.
The numbers are just the record of what happened in the games. How can you understand more about what happened in the games by forgetting about what happened in the games?
by Vlad on Nov 7, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
because its more than just stats
winning is winning, and maholm/doumit have experienced very little of that.
and saying that they had little to do with it is blind favoritism. they very well could have been part of the problem.
its alot like adam laroche. he is a very servicable player. yet we all know what he brings; absolutely nothing for the first few months then goes on a tear when the team is already 28 games out of first. then the team is supposed to sign him to a $10mm deal?
why, why, why?
winning is winning, and maholm/doumit have experienced very little of that.
“Winning” is also stats. If you score more runs than you allow, you win, and if you don’t, you don’t.
its alot like adam laroche. he is a very servicable player. yet we all know what he brings; absolutely nothing for the first few months then goes on a tear when the team is already 28 games out of first. then the team is supposed to sign him to a $10mm deal?
why, why, why?
Because the games at the end of the year count for just as much in the standings as the games at the start of it. The nature of the narrative sportswriters will generate in order to describe the season doesn’t matter at all if you end up with the same number of wins at the end of it.
by Vlad on Nov 7, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The point, white angus
is that, even if Maholm did improve his approach, the outcome, by the numbers, was righty in line with his history.
But you’re making a weird argument anyway. You say A. that he changed (improved) his approach, and B. that he had a career year in 2011. Sounds to me like A+B=C keep Maholm, because he’s “figured it out.” But you’re somehow making C mean that he’s a bum for having improved himself in a way that’s visible to the naked eye. Weird.
by JRoth95 on Nov 7, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Glad I’m not the only one who noticed this.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
youre "assuming" that i dislike maholm, thats why.
i truly feel like he pitched some of his best baseball last year. it doesnt mean that i feel it necessary to keep him in a pirate uniform at that cost.
if we resign Maholm to a 2 year deal for less than $15MM, then yes.
its not a weird argument. im giving props to maholm for actually pitching better.
im not talking about his NUMBERS. im talking about the way he pitched.
$#@! the numbers. i dont need to see them to see that he pitched better.
im not saying hes a bum either. im saying the same performance can be had for cheaper, and possibly even better.
From who though?
Maybe in a magical Shangri-La where Hendrix never died and no one ever heard of the Kardashians, the Bucs could find this better, cheaper pitcher.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
how dare you put Hendrix and the Kardashians in the same comeback!!!
you cant hear Jimmy!!!!
by white angus on Nov 7, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i dont need to see them to see that he pitched better.
If he pitched better, then why didn’t it show up in the numbers?
but it did
2 less hits per 9 innings for starters. this helped his WHIP immensely.
he also got RH hitters to hit 50 pts less than the year before: around 310 down to around 260…
in fact, LH hitters hit slightly better than RHs in 2011 against Maholm
(starters only)
i've had this argument before
Maholm’s GB, LD and FB rates are almost exactly the same as 2 years back.
saying we have a set precedent on signing FA SP isn’t objective, it’s ignorant or just completely twisted.
The sample size of 1 is also far better than paying Paul Maholm $9m. Paul’s xFIPs (your favorite stat except when discussing Kevin Correia) the last 3 years 4.18 4.41 4.03
Correia… 4.14 4.06 4.38.
Yet one you want to banish one from the team and the other you want to give $10m to. The same guy whose velocity has dropped a full MPH for the 2nd straight year, is coming off a shoulder injury and pitched the least amount of innings he’s ever thrown in a full year.
saying we have a set precedent on signing FA SP isn’t objective, it’s ignorant or just completely twisted.
It’s not just FA SPs. It’s FAs of any sort. We don’t have the ability to attract high-quality talent through the FA process without drastically overpaying relative to market rates. We simply don’t.
Paul’s xFIPs (your favorite stat except when discussing Kevin Correia) the last 3 years 4.18 4.41 4.03
Correia… 4.14 4.06 4.38.
And in that time, Maholm pitched almost 50 more innings than Correia did. Correia simply doesn’t have the stamina to be counted on as a productive member of a ML rotation for an entire season.
If you want to go with Correia instead of Maholm, you need to add in 8 or 9 starts by Brian Burres (or whatever other replacement-level schlub you’d like to pick instead) to cover the difference in IP.
Doumit and Maholm aren’t high-quality so we don’t need to worry about that. This is only the second time NH has set out to use FA to win now and he has about 3x the cash he had last year.
And I’ll take Owens and Mcpherson then. Or with the $5m difference you can get 25 starts out of another SP that is slightly worse than Maholm but has a decent shot to outperform Paul in 2012.
so youre saying that Maholm and Doumit are not part of the problem over the last half decade?
That’s correct, yes. Maholm and Doumit are good enough to play for a winning team. The guys who sank the team over the past decade are the guys who are not.
i agree, but there are dozens and dozens of players out there you can say the same thing about
we have all seen maholm and doumit have some good games in black n yellah. we’ve also seen many bad games, especially from mr. maholm.
everyone on the roster is replacable.
i agree, but there are dozens and dozens of players out there you can say the same thing about
Of course. But Maholm and Doumit were compelled to play for us in 2012 if we decided that we wanted them, and none of those other dozens of players are.
everyone on the roster is replacable.
Sure, but not necessarily with a player of greater or equal value, given the restrictions under which we operate. My objection stems from the belief that the replacements of Maholm and Doumit will either be of lower quality or of equivalent quality but at a much greater cost.
youre just assuming that the replacements will be lower quality
none of us have any idea whom is going to be on our roster next season. we could sign Barmes to replace Cedeno and he has a monster season… who saw it coming? No one.
all 4 players non tendered are servicable major leaguers, no one is denying this. but they are replacable, and probably at much less a cost that you’d think.
and yes, i think the FO should trade some of the precious prospects we all consider to be gold around here.
youre just assuming that the replacements will be lower quality
All the available evidence suggests that this will be the case.
no, youre wrong.
youre assuming that NO trades will be made, or that they SHOULDNT be made.
there are literally a hundred players out there that could possibly make you forget that Maholm was even a Bucco.
no, youre wrong.
Then please provide the evidence that disagrees with my assessment.
there are literally a hundred players out there that could possibly make you forget that Maholm was even a Bucco.
And where is the evidence that we are going to acquire any of them?
where is the evidence we wont?
NH and FC have been in power 4 seasons. this is NOT the same regime as before.
yet you are now saying that it is, sorta.
personally, if i had to bet money, i would say that NH doesnt trade the prospects, which goes against my argument. but thats if my money is involved.
but theres no reason to assume that the front office wont be making some changes soon.
where is the evidence we wont?
I offer as evidence the fact that we have literally never been able to do this in the past, over the entire history of the team.
its not the same regime
we have no idea whats going to happen, and for the first time im actually excited about that.
I have no problem with you being excited, but you need to understand that there isn’t any actual factual basis for that excitement at this point.
Where there's horse shit,
there’s a pony!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Nov 7, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
factual basis??
do you even like baseball, vlad? you sound like you treat the game like its a job.
hey, if you get paid to be miserable, more kudo’s to ya.
of course he likes baseball
but baseball is more enjoyable when the pirates win. and we want the pirates to improve themselves, and looking so far at what they are doing, it doesnt look that way.
looking at the facts, it doesnt appear the pirates are poised to improve. and if they do improve through FA, it appears they’ll be doing it by overpaying
I’m Bill James. I made baseball as fun as doing your taxes!
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
by wg1of5 on Nov 7, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Heh.
I stole that from The Simpsons, but I’ll take the rec anyway.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
by wg1of5 on Nov 7, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
do you even like baseball, vlad?
I could ask you the same question. I’m the guy who’s arguing that they should try to put the best possible team on the field next year (within reasonable limits – no trading of top prospects for filler, etc.), and you’re the guy who’s arguing that it’s no big deal whether they lose 90 games or 95 in 2012.
i never said 90 or 95... did i?
if i did, then i take it back. of course i want the team to win next year with the best “possible” players.
youre willing to settle for Maholm, i think we can do better. thats the difference here.
How many trades have the Pirates made during the off-season in the NH/FC era?
Answer…two. The Iwamura/Chavez trade and the Duke trade (which was basically a dump).
That is fairly strong evidence that the Pirates aren’t LIKELY to make a significant trade during the off season.
you dont make big trades your first few seasons in a rebuild
everyone knows this. thats not even an argument. after you trade off your “talent”, you build up through your draft. the next step should be evaluation.
cmon guys.
everyone knows this
Someone should tell NH, then. Most people would consider Bay and Nady and McLouth to be “big trades”.
BTW.....
……I see your point and agree 100%…..
by Marooned Pirate on Nov 9, 2011 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
Correia
was really only good for the first month of the season (2.90 ERA, 1.091 WHIP) and even then it seemed like he was doing it with smoke and mirrors. His ERA climbed every month after that (4.15, 4.46, 6.08, 8.41) and so did his WHIP (1.319, 1.321, 1.650, 1.869). Plus, he was so bad down the stretch, during a time when Pirates fans were getting demoralized by every one of the horrifying series losses to a last place team that the players who really struggled like Correia seemed to epitomize the team’s gut-wrenching collapse.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 7, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm saying that taking 1 year fliers on guys like Correia or Capuano..
….are what the Bucs have to do to plug rotation holes right now. But that’s what they should be: 1 year.
And Correia just “slightly” less than Maholm? In what world?
Correia: 4.7 career fWAR over 895 IP
Maholm: 13.9 career fWAR over 1143.2 IP
Quite literally, Maholm is 3 times the pitcher Correia is
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
What World?
Real world. Spew all the stats around you want, or go back over the game logs for Correia and Maholm last season (which was one of Maholm’s career best) and see how many games each pitcher put us in a position to win, and how many games each pitcher totally laid an egg in. Not a huge difference at all. Stats also don’t tell the timing of the wins or the opponents each pitcher performed well against. I’m not saying Correia was Maholm’s equal last season, but there wasn’t a huge difference, and it wouldn’t surprise too much if Correia had a better year next season, considering the nature of each pitcher’s season ending injury.
by ballparkfranks on Nov 7, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
My point
Nowadays, there are so many stats out there that it’s easy to handpick stats to support nearly any argument as you can see in this thread. Even looking at the game logs could be considered looking at stats, but you can see some other things come to light when you back away from the numbers and look at the games.
I like Maholm, and I like him better than Correia, but paying him $9 million is a risk with no future reward.
by ballparkfranks on Nov 7, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
You may be able find a stat to support any argument, but you can’t find a stat to support any argument well.
by thecheeseisblue on Nov 8, 2011 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I can throw RBIs in your face all day long if it supports my argument. However, it doesn’t actually add anything to my argument because it’s a pointless stat. So it supports it, but not well.
by thecheeseisblue on Nov 8, 2011 2:46 AM EST up reply actions
its a pointless stat to sabreheads
but in the game itself, its still one of the glamour stats. if it were meaningless, you would have Pujols leading off and have Shumacher try to drive him in.
RBI is a nearly meaningless stat, among other reasons, because it doesn’t reflect in any way the number of RBI opportunities the player collecting the RBI received. If I come to bat with nine men on base in a given game, and drive in two, I’m credited with the same number of RBI as a guy who doesn’t see a runner on base all day and hits two solo HR.
The ability to drive in runs is a valuable skill – but RBI does a very poor job of measuring that skill.
Well, you still wouldn't have him leading off
Doesn’t current lineup optimization theory hold that you’d typically have your most valuable hitter bat second?
3rd i believe is the best, statistically
which is, ironically, where notable saber/moneyball-hater la russa had him. When he bats 3rd, its a good mix of opportunities to drive guys in, while getting max plate appearances per game.
It depends on whether your strength is more obp, contact, or power, and also on the other hitters in the lineup, but yes, 2nd or 3rd is where you want your best guy.
can’t find a link to it off the top of my head though…
I always read second (and pitcher eighth)
and the #3 hitter should actually be about the fifth best. Here’s a link.
Another thing I’ve always read is that this isn’t really very important. The PR hit the Pirates took from hitting the pitcher eighth probably outweighed the tiny in-game advantage, even if the SABRmetricians are right about it.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 9, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
also, having Schumaker bat near the top of the order was a dumb decision by T La Russ
Giving lots of extra ABs to a guy with a .333 OBP and a .685 OPS probably cost the team a few runs.
But the real point is, you design the lineup to maximize runs scored, not RBIs for one particular guy. If you have a hitter like Pujols, you want to get guys on in front of him, so that will drive up his RBIs (and he’ll walk a lot, which will drive up the RBIs of the guys hitting behind him). But the goal is to maximize team runs, not individual RBIs.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 9, 2011 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Spew all the stats around you want
Stats are nothing but a record of what actually happened in the games. If you want to throw out the stats, you’re essentially making a faith-based argument rather than a rational one.
There are plenty of stats we don’t have though. The record is incomplete so you cannot rely solely on those stats.
The record is incomplete so you cannot rely solely on those stats.
Some information is better than no information.
Some information is better than no information.
Not if that information doesn’t fit your chosen narritive.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 7, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
You sound like one of those guys...
…who talk about how much heart McKenry plays with.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
and Pitcher WAR is just about IP
most people know Maholm has thrown more innings than Correia. That doesn’t make him 3 times as good. 3 times as useful? maybe.
So even using your formulation...
…Maholm is 3 times as useful as Correia. That still upends the guy’s point about Maholm being only “slightly” better.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I wouldn’t trade one Maholm for 53 Correias. That’s the point of replacement level analysis.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
No
But you sound like a guy that likes to put words in someone else mouth.
by ballparkfranks on Nov 7, 2011 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Anybody that was expecting anything other than what the Pirates got out of Correia in 2011, hasn’t paid attention to his career. A pitcher near .500 with an ERA around 4.50.
Considering that he had a 4.79 ERA with his BEST walk rate in his career (by about 20%)…I will be real surprised if his ERA is below 5.00 this season.
A whole lot of people seemed to be unreasonably surprised that a 30-year-old who’d only once spent an entire season in the rotation might display stamina issues down the stretch, too.
To me the surprise
was that there was simply no help coming from the minors. I wasn’t thinking, “Correia for 25 starts, then Owens”, but it didn’t seem unreasonable, last winter, to expect that someone other than Lincoln would be in a position to have some productive August/September starts for us. But no one was. We did get some unproductive starts, but that doesn’t really make me feel better.
A successful off-season
Guys like Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and CJ Wilson are all absurd pipe dreams to put it most charitably. Most, if not all of us, are aware of that.
So, given the holes in the Pirates lineup, what could we call a realistic successful off-season?
For me, if the Bucs could land Barmes, Ramon Hernandez/Rod Barajas, and Chris Capuano for the rotation, let’s call it a win and get ready for spring training.
Doumit back on something like a 1 year/6MM deal via arbitration instead of Hernandez/Barajas or DLee back at 1 year/8MM the same way would be gravy.
(Landing someone like Edwin Jackson or Carlos Pena would be within the realm of possible events, but only juuuussssst barely. Extremely unlikely at best, so they’re not really in my thoughts.)
Thoughts?
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Thoughts
For me, if the Bucs could land Barmes, Ramon Hernandez/Rod Barajas, and Chris Capuano for the rotation, let’s call it a win and get ready for spring training.
So barely upgrading or holding flat at SS and C with older players and for potentially more money and downgrading at one SP slot while saving some cash is a win?
Maybe NH and FC have an actual plan that they are going to unleash at some point that will just blow all of us away, but I have the sneaking suspicion that this offseason will wind up reeking like a pile of soiled diapers in the mid-July sun.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
I dunno
Maholm: 2.1 fWAR, 4.03 xFIP last season.
Capuano: 1.6 fWAr, 3.67 xFIP last season
Maholm’s cost? 9.75MM. Capuano won’t get more than 3-4MM.
To save 5-6 million and sacrifice half a win? I’d take that.
Moving on:
Barmes: .698 OPS, 10.8 UZR/150, 3.1 fWAR
Cedeno: .636 OPS, 6.8 UZR/150, 1.4 fWAR
Cedeno’s cost: 3 million. Barmes could probably be had for 5MM. Barmes has also been much more consistent with the glove in the field throughout his career than Ronny. So having a dependable glove at SS to back up our rotation of ground ballers and holding serve on the bat for 2 million more? I’d take that too.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Capuano won’t get more than 3-4MM.
I think you’re going to be surprised by how much Capuano gets. And even if he does end up cheaper than Maholm, that’s because his extensive history of arm problems make him spectacularly unreliable. Picking him up to be the rotation workhorse is like buying a used Alfa Romeo as your daily transportation.
Anyone who gives Capuano a penny over...
…4.5MM is insane, but the free agent market is indeed weird.
I can’t shake the feeling that the Bucs are going to end up with Jeff Francis or Capuano & if they have to have a lefty whose arm is being held on by a single tendon, give me CC
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
by Raybin on Nov 7, 2011 11:41 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
For a groundballers pitching staff...
it sure give up a lot of HRs.
For me, if the Bucs could land Barmes, Ramon Hernandez/Rod Barajas, and Chris Capuano for the rotation, let’s call it a win and get ready for spring training.
That’s not a win. That’s maybe, maybe a push. If you squint.
Perhaps I should clarify
That’s a win given the situation they’ve places themselves in. Whether they should be in this situation in the first place is another question altogether
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
by Raybin on Nov 7, 2011 11:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough.
With this clarification, I can see your point.
Problem is, they didn’t have to be in this position, as you allude to. They could have easily brought back Cedeno and Maholm AND spent the money to get Capuano (not that I would do that, but it would be a possibility), as well as either exercise Doumit’s option or decline so that they can offer arbitration.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
Yeah, OK
But this is why we wailed and gnashed our teeth: they chose to put themselves in a position such that a modest downgrade would qualify as a win. And, to be clear, the signings you outline are at the top end of what’s possible, IMO.
I suppose I'm more optimistic than you
Though it’s really depressing that speculating about Clint Barmes and Ramon Hernandez can be defined as “optimistic”
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I hesitated with "possible"
I mean, surprising things happen. It wouldn’t rock my worldview, or make me suspect collusion, if they did somewhat better than Barmes/Hernandez/Capuano. But I don’t see any reason to expect more than that.
Probably the most upside comes from NRIs to problematic pitchers – as the Yankees showed, sometimes those can really pay off out of all proportion to the odds. But position players? Good ones have options, and mediocre ones rarely are anything but mediocre.
Gonna cost the second round pick for Hernandez
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 7, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Putting on my GM hat...
…I offer Doumit arb and if he accepts, great & if not, use the sandwich round pick to offset the possible loss of the 2nd rounder if you land Hernandez
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
by Raybin on Nov 7, 2011 11:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Final Sentence
I’ll say this – this offseason will certainly be interesting. Maybe Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have a plan that I don’t see coming at all. They’re certainly acting like they do. Or maybe they only think they do, and we’re going to end up with a bunch of Lyle Overbays again.
That final sentence in the final graf makes me want to take some Xanax.
I don't buy the pity party
For one thing, people in baseball notice when you make successful, high profile signings. Which is precisely what the Pirates have done in the draft. People also notice when you improve, and when last I checked the Pirates improved by 15 games last year. Will you sign the top free agents who will have multiple suitors? No. But no one is seriously suggesting that strategy. When last I checked the Yankees aren’t in on Ramon Hernandez, Clint Barmes, Derrek Lee, or Chris Capuano.
Will the Pirates sign all of their first choices? Of course not. But unlike a lot of clubs, they’ve got money to spend. And I don’t much worry about NH getting played by Scott Boras.
Viva Clemente!
For one thing, people in baseball notice when you make successful, high profile signings. Which is precisely what the Pirates have done in the draft.
There’s a difference between “people in baseball” and “players”. 99% of players know fuck-all about their team’s farm system, and most of the ones that do pay attention are irritated by money paid to prospects (since they think that money should be going to proven talents like themselves, instead).
But unlike a lot of clubs, they’ve got money to spend.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that, if push came to shove, didn’t have money to spend. Sure, there are teams like the Marlins that won’t spend it, and teams like the Cubs and Mets that shouldn’t spend (although with Epstein in Chicago, that may be changing), but the money is there for everyone else. Just because the Pirates have some extra cash this year, people think that they’re going to be able to get themselves some shiny new toys, but trust me, we’ll be getting Go-Bots instead of Transformers.
And I don’t much worry about NH getting played by Scott Boras.
That’s only because Scott Boras doesn’t deal in bottom-feeders and hangers-on. Top-shelf is how he rolls, and NH is looking for $1 well drinks to get his buzz on.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
Actually, I don't think he is looking for $1 well drinks to get his buzz on
Though it’s a great line.
Dodgers, Twins, Astros, Reds, Nationals, Arizona, A’s, Angels, Orioles. There are a bunch of teams hurting right now due to high salaries or low revenues.
Viva Clemente!
When a team has a 105 loss season as the Pirates did in 2010...
the AVERAGE improvement the following season is something like 17 games. They didn’t do anything special.
best season is 7 years
just sayin
Which makes it almost as fun as the era of Ryan Vogelsong, Abe Nunez, Tike Redman, and Randall Simon.
Who couldn’t get nostalgic for that?
does this mean
we have a semi productive Benson and Wells, along with Perez? I may be inclined to be happy about such a thing given the state of our pitching in recent years
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
what did the era of Maholm, Doumit, Duke, Bay, Sanchez and WIlson bring?
one batting title, one rookie of the year, and years of 69 wins or less
what did the era of Maholm, Doumit, Duke, Bay, Sanchez and WIlson bring?
I had a lot of good afternoons and evenings spent watching games that we won. If I go see a game, I’d rather see the team win than lose, even if we aren’t contending for anything that year. Maholm and Doumit make this team better than it’ll be next year without them.
if the pirates find suitable replacements, you just may see more wins than the Maholm/Doumit era has given us...
but youre assuming the worst. i dont get that.
When Neal shows...
that he can actually acquire suitable replacements, then we can quit assuming the worst. His track record on the major league level is less than convincing.
youre assuming he wont do it, which is what im arguing about.
he obviously wants to build the team through the system, which is fine. but he has to go out and aquire better players to blend with the youth.
i totally agree with him having to do better.
but youre saying he wont. but then again, youve pretty much wanted him gone for years.
Funny conversation
Angus: Where’s your proof that NH won’t make things better?
Thunder: All of NH’s past moves.
Angus: Where’s your proof that NH won’t do things differently from the way he consistently has in the past?
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Or a farm system with any sort of depth.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
just not true
Look at the farm system now and look at the farm system four years ago. The depth has improved immensely.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 8, 2011 7:22 AM EST up reply actions
It’ll be a top ten system now. Some people may have it in the top five. When NH took over BA rated it in the bottom five.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 8, 2011 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
whats funny about it?
i think i actually make sense on this one. (for a change)
he gutted the MLB team year one. We all knew the team wouldnt win for a while as he built up the farm system.
now we are going into year 5 after a semi-successful 4th season.
many of the prospects from both the DL years and NH years are starting to knock on the door.
why cant NH start doing it a different way??
He’ll have to overpay significantly to sign anybody who’ll be a real improvement. Maybe he’s ready (or maybe it’s Coonelly) to make a 180 degree change in his financial approach. Given how consistent they’ve been in that approach, though, the logical assumption is that they won’t do it, until they prove otherwise.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
Can only predict future actions based on known past ones.
I’m happy to be wrong in this case, believe me. But until the wallet comes open or the trade wire hums with legitimately helpful deals, I’ll err on the side of track record.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
You would then also agree
that this situation isn’t as it always has been for NH in that he has considerable room for the budget, and more depth in the system than he’s ever had.
Taking that approach, this is not the same situation as his previous years, and hence could not be held to compare to previous years at a rate of 100%.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I predict, based on years when NH has had a FA budget of $30 million
that this is the first year he’s had that. I think you are right, Cheap Beer, this is not the same situation.
Viva Clemente!
And all signs point to yes
on making big moves. Or at least moves.
We’ve cleared out space by cutting guys like Maholm and Cedeno and we haven’t added projects that need a look like Clement or LaRoche.
While a different foundation doesn’t necessarily mean the house will look the same, it also means that many signs are pointing to something different ‘above ground’.
I am still hanging a $20 on a significant piece being added via trade.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
For who though?
This is what I’m curious about. Who are these players the front office is clearing out space for?
Pujols, Fielder? No one believes this.
CJ Wilson? Everything I read points to him getting a deal in the range of 5/75 from a contender. What would he want to come to Pittsburgh?
Reyes? Does this look like the kind of front office who would risk 7/126 on a guy who’s leg is apt to fall off?
And as for trades…who out there is available that would require clearing out a bunch of money for? Even guys talked about below like Cahill & Gonzalez are just entering their arb years and wouldn’t be terribly pricey in 2012.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Um, no . . . .
There’s no evidence that they’ll do it and a long, unbroken string of evidence that they won’t. We’re not writing on a blank slate here, as you like to pretend.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
who is pretending?
FC and NH have been in charge 4 years. they found themselves in contention and, to everyones happiness on here, they made changes to help the team. most everyone assumed they would be sellers but they absolutely were NOT.
so how is that for evidence?
by white angus on Nov 7, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That has absolutely no relevance to anything they’re going to do this winter. It’s a totally different market.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
its evidence, baby
it shows the the FO did something out of the norm, something that the fans didnt expect or assume.
sure, it was just once, but it actually happened. i saw it. it was magical.
It's irrelevant evidence.
It has no bearing at all on whether they’ll pay well above market to sign a useful player who doesn’t want to come to Pgh. Lee and Ludwick had no choice.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it’s real easy to trade for 3rd starters. Probably wouldn’t have to give up much in return.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Because we already had Maholm.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it actually is.
If I have a car, and I drive it off a cliff, and I take out a mortgage on my house to buy a replacement, I’m not just as well off as I was before the accident, just because I have transportation again.
no, you dont take out a 2nd mortgage cuz your tuckus died in that car
whats with this analogy? usually your analogies are spot on.
? The idea that the Pirates would be buyers at the deadline was widely discussed here and elsewhere well before it actually happened.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 7, 2011 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
yes, and still many people believed that the pirates would be sellers
because “thats why the pirates do”.
Actually...
I wouldn’t call the Pirates buyers at the deadline. I’d call them renters.
Can we stop this silly notion that the Pirates were contenders in 2011? When you finish the season 24 games out of first place, you did not contend.
Contending in July is meaningless when there are two more months of the season. Finishing 24 games out proves this.
by Tim Wiliams on Nov 7, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, it had meaning…in July. That does not mean that a team even came close to contending.
Again, a team finishing 24 games out of first place means that they were not contenders.
Last I checked
July, 2011 was in the year 2011, so we were contenders in 2011.
It’s the only reason we are even having this argument about Paul Maholm. If we weren’t contenders, he and his shiny ERA would be long gone by now.
Your logic is the equivalent of someone losing all of his money in a brokerage account, but that person feeling like a winner in the market because two months earlier his brokerage account was doing well.
Contending in July is not the same as being contenders. To be contenders, you have to be competing for the division lead (or a wild card) when the season is coming to a close.
Just so I understand, are you saying that if a team was in contention in July and then had one of the worst collapses in MLB history to the point where they finished 24 games out of 1st place, they were contenders?
fwiw, your analogy is way off. The Pirates aren’t broke.
It’s more like we were Captain of the Chess Club, then we got to date one of the homecoming Princesses for 4 months, and then she dumped us for the Captain of the swim team.
Yeah, we’re still losers… but we’ll always have those 4 months…
so every mlb team was a contender in 2011
all 16 NL teams and all 14 AL teams were tied for 1st place at one point last season.
ALL CONTENDERS
My crystal ball forsees a fairly significant trade this winter.
I won’t speculate as to what, but this is what my gut is telling me…
… either that or greek for lunch.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Nope, I went Ramen.
But I’m willing to put money on it that we pull in a SP via trade this year.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Who does your gut think is the SP?
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
That would give my gut indigestion
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
ding, ding... was typing that.
You also have to assume that TB will want to trim a little too… OAK as well.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
or Jurrjens
his injury problems last year don’t scare me all that much.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Atlanta listening to offers on Jurrjens/Prado
Jurrjens for the rotation, Prado to 3rd, Pedro to 1st, let’s GO WIN SOME TITLES
That last part may be a bit of an overstatement
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
of the guys who realistically might be available...
…I’d see what Beane would want for Gonzalez or Cahill. Otherwise, it’s probably not worth it.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
So trade for Gio, resign Lee, and push with Barmes/Hernandez… Leaves money to extend Walker/McCutchen.
Good offseason imo.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Gonzalez would immediately be the best pitcher the Bucs have had since Drabek
That alone would make it a GREAT offseason, everything else aside.
he wouldn’t come cheap though.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
To be fair
Sanchez/Jurrjens/Gio/Cahill/Any of the arms in TB… they’d all be the best arms for the bucs.
It’s the first time in a long time that our system has any sort of depth. Assuming this would be the first NH offseason where he could seriously entertain an impact trade.
I am leaning SP, but I wouldn’t rule out a 1B either… I don’t see two impact players though.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Well there goes Sanchez
Traded to the Royals for Melky Cabrera…
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Really?
If so, good.
Sanchez would be awesome if he knew where his pitches were going more than about 40 percent of the time.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Giants done dealing pitching?
I don’t see them dealing anything else…
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I'd say they're done
Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Vogelsong
Zito
looks to be their rotation next season. Anyone who thinks the top 3 are headed anywhere is smoking crack.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
the fvcking fvck!!!
i didnt read carefully enough first time— the Giants gave up Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo?!!???!!!
I dunno..
…they gave up a #5 starter & their 25th best prospect (according to the article) for a reasonably priced guy who might help provide them with desperately needed offense. Seems like a good deal.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
that was 25th best prospect before 2011
he went back to starting this past season. i would guarantee that verdugo jumped up those rankings this season
i think Verdugo is better than 25th
the list MLBTR mentions was pre-2010 season, i think. At worst, verdugo is going to be a solid reliever, imo.
I thought Cabrera for Sanchez is a push but slightly favored KCR— I just cant see Cabrera repeating 2011, and Sanchez is better than a #5, although 2011 was disconcertingly bad. Anyway, I think its worth it for KC.
i live about an hour near Richmond and saw Verdugo pitch once this season
lots of swings and misses that night.
richmond isnt a good hitters park so its hard to say if its legitimate, but swings n misses are a good start.
his Kper9 stats as a reliever are insane!
a reasonably priced guy who might help provide them with desperately needed offense
I trust Melky Cabrera about as far as I can throw this monitor.
yup, now the question is, if that was us getting sanchez, what would have taken to acquire him.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
yup, now the question is, if that was us getting sanchez, what would have taken to acquire him.
Hard to say. We don’t have many players as bad as Melky, but the Giants presumably didn’t trade for him in the expectation that he’d be bad, so who knows what they think he is?
I can answer that
who knows what they think he is?
They think he’s a veteran player that knows the tricks of the trade and that will allow him to put up a season like the one he just put up in Kansas City.
and
melky will not be a centerpiece of the team to build around, just a nice addition.
if the guy can hit in KC, he may be able to adjust to SF.
There was also a good chance Sanchez was going to be non-tendered.
I’m sure nobody would have complained much if we got Melky for Maholm… It’s essentially a free player.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I’m sure nobody would have complained much if we got Melky for Maholm… It’s essentially a free player.
I would have, because I don’t like Melky at all, and if we traded for him we’d probably use him rather than getting a player whom I trust even slightly instead.
If we got Pujols for 100% free
I still think you’d find a way to spin it in a negative light.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I still think you’d find a way to spin it in a negative light.
Pujols is just a little more talented than Melky Cabrera.
I don’t like Melky and don’t think he’s a good bet going forward. That was my position on him when he was a prospect, that was my position on him when he was starting for the Yankees, and it’s still my position today.
i'll back up Vlad on this one
hes never been a fan of Melky. he was mentioned as a possible pirate in the past and Vlad’s monitor was in serious danger of destruction
for some reason Vlad's comment reminds me of Wordsworth's "My Heart Leaps Up"
My heart sinks down when I behold
A Melky at the plate
So was it when he was in the minors
So was it when he was with the MF Yankees
So is now that he just got traded
Now, ain’t that great?
Wordsworth’s rhymes were a bit tighter than mine, though.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
BTW
I was meh-ing Wodsworth for taking too long. Anyone can have tight rhymes if he works on a poem for days.
I was in fact thinking of taking time to think of some actual rhymes, and then I said to myself, “Self, is that really a good use of your time?”
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 8, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
They think he’s a veteran player that knows the tricks of the trade and that will allow him to put up a season like the one he just put up in Kansas City.
Oh dear.
that about sums up
how most giants fans should be feeling right now… I wonder though, if Torres is available, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on him…
Ummmmm
did you watch that AFL rising stars game… just sayin.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
You're referring to Cole?
Sanchez turns 29 this month and has been pitching in the bigs since 2006.
Cole is 21, just out of college & has never pitched above the AFL.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I am
I view Sanchez as Cole’s floor.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Now I'm dreaming of Gonzalez
26 year old flame throwing lefty under 4 more years of team control who’s pumped out 404.2 innings the past 2 seasons kasdjfl;kasmdf;oaweifn;oa
And Cahill’s only 23 who I’m a huge fan of. with the right coaching, he can evolve into a legitimate ace.
Sigh. If only…still, these are the fantasies that get me through the offseason
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Me too!
THIS is what I think of this offseason… not the debbie downer, Pirates always stink stuff.
Come March I may be down with everyone else, but there really are legit ways to make this team better. Maybe we aren’t talking trades, because they’re seldom made, but there’s never been an offseason where it even seemed plausible without running a very thin farm.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Nice move
I assume you’re saving the difference in price between the replacement-level lunch you had and the 1 MAR (Meal Above Replacement, natch) gyro you could have had, and plan to invest in a 3.5 MAR burger later in the week.
I am taking the saved difference and allocating it to a new tiller. The higher yield from the farm, will eventually ease the necessity to over-purchase, past the prime, processed foods.
Long term sustainability is the goal.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Part of Baseball
The way baseball is set up every team faces decisions like we had on Maholm, Doumit, Snyder, and Cedeno. Players become free agents or price themselves out of a job. So I don’t really look at it as downgrading, and start comparing Barmes to Cedeno and Maholm to Capuano. There are other players that improve each year that we don’t expect, and there are spots that are open for changes.
I’d say I didn’t like the Cedeno decision, and was on the fence about Maholm. But those aren’t what will define this offseason.
My plan would be to fill spots at SS and 1B, and maybe at catcher, but I would not pay the going rate for mediocre starting pitchers. I would look to an approach of using successful relievers that have more than two pitches and converting them to starters. Use internal options, and load AAA with 3 such pitchers and see what you can come up with. I think there would be a real good chance that someone might outperform Paul Maholm, and actually provide something beyond next season.
Anyone that doesn’t want to use stopgaps should realize that guys that we let walk were going to fill the same role.
My biggest problem with not exercising any of the options...
is that most of us pretty much knew on Opening Day 2011 that barring an MVP type season, the options on Maholm, Doumit and Snyder were not going to be exercised. And the Pirates got ZERO out of it up to this point. They might get a sandwich pick or two, assuming they offer arbitration, or could still get stuck with a pricey contract if one of them accepts arbitration and then wins.
most of us pretty much knew on Opening Day 2011 that barring an MVP type season, the options on Maholm, Doumit and Snyder were not going to be exercised
Disagree.
thunder is right
its been stated over and over again since the beginning of the season. all 3 were probably going to be exPirates in 2012. im sure that was the overwhelming consensus.
My recollection
was that Doumit’s was lest likely, for length reasons, that Snyder’s was plausible, if he stayed healthy, and that Maholm’s was a tossup, depending on what the young’ns did. If you’d told me last winter that not a single one of the Altoona 4 looked likely to be ready to start for the Pirates in spring of 2012, I’d have said, “take Paulie’s option.” It was always a viable choice and in the absence of good replacements, it becomes an obvious one.
that's my sense too
Also, though I understand the original sentiment (or what I think it is) — if we knew we wouldn’t be picking up these options, shouldn’t we have got something for the players before letting them go? — that’s not a good reason to pick up the options. Just because we didn’t get rid of the assets at their highest value, that’s irrelevant to the question of whether we should pay for them another year; we have to evaluate whether they’re worth what we’d have to pay for them. The sunk costs are gone.
(NTM that, with Snyder and Doumit, part of the reason we got nothing for them this year is injury. They got hurt at such a time that it would’ve been impossible to trade them, even if we’d have liked to.)
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t pick up Snyder’s or Doumit’s option, because I don’t trust them to stay healthy (especially for Doumit’s two years). I would definitely offer Doumit arb and be fine if he accepts, because then we have him on a one-year deal. I might even offer Snyder arb. I’d almost definitely have picked up Maholm’s option.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
I wrote this on PP this morning.
My wish for this hot stove season would be to fill the holes in the lineup with younger upside players with the potential to take this team a step forward and begin the road to sustained winning in 2012. We all hope Cutch signs a long term deal, he is our super star, our face of the franchise and should be locked up for the long term. Tabata is already locked up and Presley has years of control left. Jones is a fan favorite and is a good RF and 1B bench player Hernandez will be a fine 5th OF with the defensive ability to back up left and center. Marte and Grossman are our trade bate! There is no reason to hold on to them with so many holes at so many positions that could be filled with better options than the usual pick ups.
With that said I would like to begin with the rotation and a trade for Gio Gonzalez. Left handed starter with top of the rotation potential signed to a good contract. Secondly Free agent Edwin Jackson. Best young starter on the market that the Bucs have a prayer of signing. With McDonald, Morton, and a shot for Lincoln would be the best young rotation they’ve had for some time and one hell of a bridge to the big future. Karstens and Correa pushed to the bull pen and we are 7 deep before you even touch the farm.
At C I would first start with offering Doumit arbitration, his bat is good, he is a fan favorite, and in a platoon with McKenrey is a better option then someone on the wrong side of 30. Secondly I would probably try to include Suzuki in the Gonzalez trade. Suzuki’s contract actually gives Sanchez more time to get back on track.
At SS i would go after a potential non tender in Aviles. A better option then the old men in the FA market and under team control until 2015. I don’t know what it would take to get him, I leave it up for discussion. I like him a lot. I don’t care to explore any other options.
First is tough man. As you can tell I don"t care for over the hill FA’s and I don’t care for platoons either. Jones is a nice back up but I don’t want him starting. If the Bucs wanted to make a big splash you could go after A.Ram and sell it to the fans as undoing a great injustice. This would move Alvarez to first. I’ve always liked Kendrys Morales and James Loney too. If the Angels want Jones I suppose Hague could be the back up.
So I’ve gone on a bit long and went a little pie in the sky, but I think it looks a lot better then a lot of the things I’ve been reading. It may also be pushing the payroll some but only into the 60m range. The important thing is, I believe the winning would start now. Fans like younger players too, and with the chance of Pujols and Fielder leaving the division, and the Cubs not being rebuilt overnight maybe it could be two steps forward.
I like part of this
I’ve posted elsewhere that I love Gio Gonzalez and would go nuts if the Pirates were able to get him from the A’s. I also wouldn’t mind kicking the tires on Suzuki because I don’t know if the A’s would actually take a lesser deal to get out from under Suzuki’s contract (not because he is horribly overpaid but rather because their ownership seems hellbent on slashing payroll unless they are allowed to move to San Jose). Jackson is interesting but I’ll bet he gets overpaid and I’d rather have Maholm (although that ship may have sailed). Other than that, I wouldn’t hate having McDonald, Morton, Lincoln and Karstens filling out the rotation after Gonzalez
I agree with offering Doumit (who FWIW is also “on the wrong side of 30”) arbitration and, assuming the Gio trade wouldn’t include Suzuki, I would want a catcher to split time with McKenry. I would like Ramon Hernandez, even as a Type A, since the team will likely get 2 comp picks for Doumit and Lee.
Aviles would be an OK option but I’m not convinced he gets non-tendered. I don’t think Barmes would be a substantial dropoff.
Morales scares me and I think Loney sucks. If D-Lee bolts, I would like seeing them take a run at Carlos Pena.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 7, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
In theory, I like the idea of adding those guys. In practice, Beane is going to want a shitload of talent back in return.
Tim Williams over on Pirates Prospects wrote a great...
…piece about Gonzalez and what it’d take to acquire him.
Basically, at the high end, it’d take Taillon and Heredia and at the low end, it’d take one of them, plus Marte or Grossman and maybe 1 other lower level prospect.
The question then is: does the amount that Gonzalez helps the Bucs the next 4 years he’s under team control exceed the amount those players would be expected to help once they’re up with the club?
Williams thinks itt’s sacrificing too much. I tend to agree, much as I love love love Gonzalez.
Here’s the whole piece to read for yourself: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2011/11/gio-gonzalez-would-cost-too-much.html
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Williams also may be overvaluing the prospects again
Heredia, Grossman and someone like Cain; if it gets the deal done, i would do it.
taillon and cole are untouchable. everyone else, name the price.
I'd do Allie, Grossman and whoever
I couldn’t let Heredia go. Just can’t. Overvalue, whatever, but I’m dying to see what he can do. Someone that talented that young is a guy the Bucs HAVE to give a shot to.
Actually, if we’re speaking in hypotheticals, I’d rather pay that price to get Trevor Cahill. He’d immediately be the best pitcher on the MLB roster by a mile and is only 23. A few years of tutelage by Ray Searage could make him one of the best in the game. His ceiling is almost unlimited.
I’m no pro scout, but man, do I like what I see from that kid.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
why give up so early on Allie?
just because of some struggles in his first season? heredia didnt exactly set the world on fire yet either…
you have to give up talent to get talent. Heredia gives you a better shot at getting something better back in return.
How is trading a prospect "giving up" on them?
Aren’t you the one saying it’s time to start dealing from farm depth? I’m just saying if you’re gonna start down that path, I’d keep Heredia and dangle Allie. Pure opinion there based on Allie’s uncertain future as a starter and Heredia’s higher upside. I could be wrong.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
you can wait and wait for the prospects to come, but ALL teams trade their prospects, or aquire others'
yes, even the Rays do it.
we hold onto all of our prospects and the vast majority of them will lose value as they advance up the ladder.
Some prospects are worth waiting for and running the risk of lost value too
To me, Heredia falls into that category. Taillon and Cole are two others. Probably Josh Bell too.
I’d listen to offers on every other prospect in the system other than those 4.
Sometimes you have to take a chance and deal from farm depth to acquire a major leaguer that can help your club. Sometimes too, you have to hang on to guys and take a risk that maybe they won’t pan out.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
well, i hear ya
but Heredia could flame out before even reaching Altoona.
gio gonzalez is already an MLB pitcher, with some team control left to boot.
Williams also may be overvaluing the prospects again
It doesn’t sound like he is to me.
Which is part of the reason why I’m not as cavalier about the possibility of trading for ML talent as you are.
Williams follows the ilk of most of the guys in here...
metric guys…
sign guys like Pena, resign the maholms, hold on to the prospects forever until they lose all their value…
Prospects don't necessarily stay prospects forever
Not all our farm guys are doomed to be AAAA types. Some of them will pan out into viable, useful major leaguers. In which case you get to realize their value by having them on your team.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Says who?
I don’t expect bench players to put up 2-3 WAR because, you know…that’s what makes them bench players.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Here's who
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
thank you! you agree with me.
ive been saying that all season long about Diaz, and XP, and Harrison, and ….
they all suck, ya know
yes, im saying that.
he was signed as a backup, nothing more. if jones were better, diaz would have played even less.
diaz was so bad, the braves reluctantly brought him back to help their playoff run… (yeah, gonna lose this argument)
To employ your own reasoning, the Braves were 8.5 games ahead in the wild card race when Diaz joined them and they finished out of the playoffs. Therefore he’s a loser.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What you’re missing here, Charlie, is the angus theorem. Backups don’t matter. Allen Craig and his 153 OPS+, John Jay and his 114 OPS+, and Nick Punto and his 127 OPS+ had nothing at all to do with the Cards’ success. They’d have gone just as far with XP and his 78 OPS+, Diaz and his 75 OPS+, and Brandon Wood and his 73 OPS+.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
and you actually think Punto is going to perform at that level with the Bucs???
backups do matter. but guys on here calling our own players “garbage” and “trash” is dewshy, justified or not.
go ahead and get your punto’s, i’ll give you 3 weeks before you call him worthless.
and craig is only a backup because his positions are taken by allstar caliber guys, and you KNOW THIS!!!
Moving the goalposts
You’re avoiding the point, which is that crappy, sub-replacement hitters are not acceptable players just because they’re not starters. Good teams don’t settle for a backup outfielder with a 78 or 75 OPS+. That sucks, and, contrary to your belief, XP and Diaz both sucked for the Pirates.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
the reason why the pirates tanked is because of the starters, not the bench guys
how about we get some starters with some of that high OPS+ stuff, shall we?
or we can just write it all off and PUNT this dialogue as well.
how about we get some starters with some of that high OPS+ stuff, shall we?
Ideally, we would do both. Fixing holes in the lineup doesn’t prevent us from also fixing holes on the bench at the same time.
youre acting like im saying we should stick with what we have.
all im doing is defending the players. especially the ones that people label as being awful. i cant stand it when laptop monkeys spew their hatred at someone when they should do the world a huge favor and follow futbol.
real easy to condemn a player from the comfort of your own couch.
ive been saying that all season long about Diaz, and XP, and Harrison, and ….
they all suck, ya know
Per Fangraphs, both Paul and Diaz provided below-replacement-level value last year. You don’t need to be a starting-caliber player to be valuable on a bench, but neither of those guys helped us at all last year.
i could care less about fangraphs, no offense
other that Paul’s poor pinch hitting, he played well for the team.
i would take him as a backup outfielder on my team anyday.
other that Paul’s poor pinch hitting, he played well for the team.
He was bad enough at pinch hitting that it more than killed the value he provided by doing anything else.
i would take him as a backup outfielder on my team anyday.
On a personal level, I like him a lot. He grew up as a Pirates fan, and he seemed like he played hard all year. But his performance in 2011 was not good, and if we want to be a good team in the future, we need to get more from that roster spot – be it from him, or someone else.
Setting the bar below ground
So now we’re making arguments that an outfielder with a 78 OPS+, or a .642 OPS, or any other stat you want to look at, is a useful player? Amazing.
Oh, except for his pinch hitting. You’re admitting he sucked at that. No big deal. Backup outfielders are hardly ever called upon to pinch hit.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how was the play?
by BurgherKing on Nov 7, 2011 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and XP will never, ever improve...
just like Cedeno didnt.
just like Karstens didnt.
just like Morton didnt.
youre right. theyre garbage. sale teh team!
XP had his shot and didn’t take advantage of it. How many shots you keep giving a guy is a function both of performance and ceiling. Morton and Cedeno have both long been regarded as having far more ability than showed up in their performances. XP hasn’t, so he isn’t worth sticking with for as long as they were. (Of course, in Cedeno’s case, the Pirates didn’t want to stick with him. They just couldn’t find anybody else.)
XP also is a bad fit for this team. He’s a weak hitter with zero plate discipline (which is a good indication he’s unlikely to improve much) whose main utility is that he can run and play all three OF positions. But the Bucs are going to have three OFs next year who can run and play center. They need a guy on the bench who can hit. It’s time to try somebody else, and it’s certainly not worth risking the loss of an actual prospect to protect a below-replacement player like XP.
Karstens was a fallback who got a shot only because of an injury, then had a season that he’s extremely unlikely to repeat. The Pirates actually removed him from the roster two years ago. If they want to do the same with XP, and he’ll sign a minor league deal to go to Indianapolis, I’m fine with that.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 7, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
and XP will never, ever improve…
His minor league track record suggests that significant future improvement is unlikely, as does his age. Of course, there are always a few exceptions to the rule… but in general the smart money is against a player like him.
Of course, any player can improve. By itself that’s not a reason to keep him on the roster. Brad Eldred may suddenly learn to make consistent contact, but I’m not ready to acquire him to play first.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Nov 8, 2011 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
your team would lose more often than others too
The Pirates could have just put Gorkys on the team, and he would have provided similar value… bah!
I was going to write a response above
saying that I thought it would be too costly to make a serious offer for Gio, but this comment popped up while I was in the middle of it so I’ll write it here.
I also agree that it’s too much to give up for Gio. Not because he is not worth that much talent but because the Pirates are not close enough for him to make a substantial difference. It’s kind of like what the Brewers did last year in trading for Greinke. If adding the player is going to really help the team make a run then it is worth it. While I think it’s plausible that the Pirates could be contenders in the next 4 years, there are too many question marks right now. Without a couple of positive developments from guys like Pedro and Tony Sanchez I think it’s unlikely the team contends before 2015. Trading Taillon and Heredia could seriously weaken the club in 2016 while only improving the 2014 team from 83-87 wins (for example). That’s not enough.
by KentuckyPirate on Nov 7, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
whats wrong with giving up some talent?
It’s better to acquire talent without giving up talent in return, when possible.
If we decline Maholm’s $9M option, then trade away $4M worth of talent for a Maholm-analogue on a one-year deal for $6M, it’s the same thing as throwing $1M out the window.
With some room left for quibbling...
…$9MM is pretty much market value for a solid, dependable lefty innings eater.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Fair enough
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
And if you want my prediction..
…3 years/25MM, 8.33 AAV (Hence my “room left for quibbling”)
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
no, that's not right, angus
Vlad’s point is that you replaced Maholm with an equivalent performer for $6M, apparently saving $3M, but you gave up a guy who could be expected to provide $4M worth of surplus value down the road, which eats up the savings and more. So you’re behind on the deal, compared to where you’d be if you kept Maholm and the prospect.
It’s even worse, though, because money isn’t as valuable to the Bucs this year as talent is down the road.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
i understand
just dont agree. i dont think Maholm is worth that $9MM. i think the team could easily do better by looking elsewhere.
Meh.
The only relatively cheap option I could see outpacing Maholm next year is Capuano, and he’s no sure bet when it comes to being healthy.
And in any case, if you were looking to replace a starter on this team, wouldn’t it be better to start with replacing Correia or Lincoln?
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
there are plenty of options
plus there are TRADES. this could be a very busy offseason for the pirates, but everyone on here assumes that the goal for this FO is to decrease salary again.
Eh.
Certainly they could bring in a viable upgrade via trade, but like most of the posters around here, I’m in the “believe it when I see it” camp, seeing as the current FO has literally never succeeded in making an offseason trade to fill any lineup or rotation hole on the team. As Thunder said upthread, they tried it exactly once, and it gave us Iwamura.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
and thats fine, i guess.
but the NEW regime hasnt really attempted anyone of that stature because it wasnt ready yet. hell, it still might not be ready yet.
you dont get rid of your entire baseball team in one season and sign FA’s to fill every position on the club. this FO has said all along that the team would love to fill as many spots internally as possible, but future aquisitions would have to be made.
other than Iwamura and Overbay, every one else has been backup players. NH’s biggest failing is NOT the free agents, its the young former top prospects he gave shots too, with not one of them working out over the long run.
no, with all due respect, you didn't understand
The argument Vlad was making was independent of the question of whether Maholm is worth $9MM. Just forget about the specific players, and think of it in terms of players A and B and prospect C.
Players A and B are equally good. You have an option on player A for $9m. Player B will make $6m that year, but the only way to get him is to trade prospect C, who you expect to produce $4m in surplus value over his career.
Then it never makes sense to dump player A and trade for player B, even if player B is worth his salary and player A isn’t. If players A and B aren’t worth $9m, then you should dump A and not trade for B — even though B seems like a bargain, he’s not worth it once you factor in the loss of C. If they’re worth $10m or more, you should keep A and trade for B — and if you only have room for one, it should be A, because the extra $3m you pay him is more than made up for by getting to keep C. But, whether or not you think A is worth his salary, if you’re planning to trade for his replacement, you have to factor in the value of what you give up in the trade as well as any difference in their salaries.
That isn’t to say that trading doesn’t make any sense — maybe you think we can get someone better in a trade, or maybe you think that we can trade for a cheaper guy by giving up someone isn’t so valuable to us (maybe someone who we might lose in the Rule 5 or something). I think that’s not likely, but it’s possible, I suppose. Part of the reason I think it isn’t likely is because I think Maholm is about worth his money.
Sorry for getting all het up about an abstract argument, but that’s what I do for a living.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
no i do understand, i just dont agree
you all believe Maholm is worth the price, and i definately say nay.
its that simple. no need for metrics that dont mean squat, no need for trade value comparisons… he is NOT worth that kind of money.
thats all.
for Christ's sake
I just went through an entire post explaining that the argument Vlad made had nothing to do with whether Maholm was worth the money.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
nothing to do with whether Maholm was worth the money
Yeah, I tried explaining above that this isn’t the issue, but it’s not sinking in.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
well, I might have overreacted a little
I guess the issue is that angus wants to trade some prospects away for other players. If you think that those players are really worth it, fine, but I’d think that the Bucs aren’t on the point in the development curve where they ought to be trading away a lot of their best prospects, and I think that’s what it’d take to get the guys he wants. Given that, if you think Maholm isn’t worth it, then you think Maholm isn’t worth it.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 7, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
but it’s not sinking in
Seems to be a common theme when discussing such things with WA.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 8, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
"Maybe Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly have a plan that I don't see coming at all."
While many here will agree that drafting/signing/developing home-grown talent is a better way to go for the Bucs than how DL went about things, should we really believe they have a plan to win?
They’ve spent a ton more on a few drafts-which is a few million here and few there- and is still a lot cheaper than spending tens of millions more on the MLB payroll. They put a few million here and few there into Latin America signings and vastly improving their Dominican Rep. facility, but still not that much money in the big scheme of things.
The Josh Bell signing, for instance, seems like a real coup for the Buccos. However, if all he does is replace a traded Cutch in a few years, then what’s so great about that?
The only way this franchise will have a sustained run of success is to have Nutting sale the team to someone with the resources and willingness to take the chances necessary.
パトリック
The Josh Bell signing, for instance, seems like a real coup for the Buccos. However, if all he does is replace a traded Cutch in a few years, then what’s so great about that?
It’s great because then we dont need to go through all this hand-wringing over who to put at a position where the current player became a FA. FAs are an option if you can get a good deal for some reason but there will be good viable options internally who can take over.
(Not that Bell can replace Cutch, since I haven’t seen anyone suggest he has a prayer of being a CF, but just going with the key point here)
Yep.
This is why the Rays can stomach losing guys like Crawford, Garza, Soriano et al; they nearly always seem to have someone like Jennings, Hellickson, or McGee ready to step into that void almost immediately.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
remember that the Rays have flopped on decisions too
once they start losing again, it could be a while before they bounce back. They will be in a different city by the time that happens.
No, it's not.
We’ll probably lose one of the few good players we have in a couple years and maybe, just maybe, have Bell as a top-notch corner OF in Pgh. a little later. My point is that they’re making it look like they’re spending on the draft to develop from within to keep a continual flow of talent to PNC Park, when in reality they’re looking for a cheaper way of having a 70-75 win team on the field most years.
I’m not advocating for a return of the DL ways to be sure, but I don’t see how under NH/FC we’re putting together a farm system that will make us anything like the Rays, for example.
パトリック
You don't get to a point where you can own a sports franchise
by being a bad business person (McCourt aside).
And you don’t build a winning business by setting yourself up to lose money. Selling the team will remedy squat.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Still amazed...
…that some of the “listen to me, I’m never wrong” crowd on this blog has yet to be hired to run the Pirates.
Baseball is broken and until it’s fixed, the Pirates chance to contend for more than maybe a season or two in a row is slim at best. You have to hit on almost all of your top draft picks and last I checked…no one does that.
Saying that keeping Ronny Cedeno is wrong and signing Climt Barmes is more wrong is OK, but why not offer up a solution rather than just blasting those who feel differently. Waiting for the young guys to come up apparently isn’t the right plan either.
thats part of the problem
many posters, myself included, don’t see a solution at the moment. NH’s moves have set the pirates up, for now, as being weaker as we go into the offseason.
OF COURSE it’s possible he could pull a rabbit out of his hat and make the team better going into 2012… but I don’t see how he’s going to pull it off so far.
That's the thing
Whatever NH’s super-seekrit plan is, it’s hard to see how it benefits from starting the offseason by giving away 4-7 wins. You might have some super weapon that will win the battle for you, but that doesn’t mean that shooting yourself in the foot at the outset was a smart decision.
We could always
So, what if the Pirates shoot out of the gate with deals for mid to low tier free agents, like Barmes, Pena, Shoppach, all the realistic top end targets that would come here, offering them competitive deals with a short time limit on it? Try to grab a few players quickly at a reasonable price, before the market sets itself. That way they could try to get a couple of wins ahead of the market, rather than trying to compete during, since they essentially can’t.
Hard to believe
that any or all those guys would sign here before testing the market. The only way to speed ahead of the market is to A. overpay or B. have some intangible appeal. Which is the opposite of what the Pirates have.
It’s conceivable that a surprise, blockbuster signing (e.g. Reyes) could shift player expectations such that the intangibles flip for us, but that first step is a doozy. It’s one of the reasons that I thought trading for Reyes last summer could actually have made sense – aside from short term benefits (who knows, maybe we avoid that tailspin and are at least in the conversation another month), it would have reset the narrative about the Pirates. A trade-and-extend could have worked like the Mets’ contract with Pedro Martinez, which was ultimately a bad deal, but A. paid off handsomely the 1st 2 seasons and B. suddenly made them a destination for the likes of Beltran and Delgado.
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