Power and the Game of Baseball

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 8, 2011 3:22 PM EST

Living in the Moneyball era, stats are god. Sabermetrics inundate and pervade scouting. That's not necessarily a bad thing. However, a purely statistical approach has its flaws. Although the strict sabermetrician will disagree, I believe there are aspects to anything, including baseball, that haven't yet been quantified, if they even can. In this case, and now my writing may start to make sense considering the title, I don't believe sabermetrics completely explain the effect of power, specifically homerun power, on a player's value, measured here in WAR. That is because on fangraphs, WAR, for the offensive side of the equation, uses wRAA, which directly uses wOBA. wOBA strictly uses numbers, defining the result of each plate appearance in a game, in its calculation.

Therefore, it does not use two major aspects of power that I believe clearly exist in the game of baseball. The first, I believe has more of an effect. A hitter with more power will be feared more, and therefore will get pitched to more carefully. That in turn should allow a hitter with patience to walk more and be more selective, getting better pitches to hit. The second I believe has less of an effect, and that is protection. If Michael Bourn is protecting Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols won't get any good pitches to hit, which will increase his OBP slightly, but give him less chances to affect the game with a big hit, usually one worth extra bases. If Matt Holliday is instead protecting Albert, he will hypothetically get more pitches to hit. How much this actually happens is up to debate and I suspect this particular effect is small.

I wrote these two long paragraphs to point out that I'm not ignoring these factors nor should they be ignored. However, my analysis will be purely statistical.

For whatever the reason, the 30 HR plateau seems to be popular these days. Looking at the Pirates minor leagues, arguments could probably made that Cunningham, Curry, and Dickerson could one day hit 30 HR's in the major leagues if you dream big. Josh Bell, who has yet to take professional AB definitely has that power potential but is years away. However, after that is stark and clear that the Pirates lack power hitting depth in their minor league system, at least 30 HR power hitting depth. How big a deal is that?

For some reason, and I've surely been guilty, people seem to think 30 HR hitters grow on trees. Let's simply look at the numbers. Via Fangraphs.

2011

30 HR Hitters - 23

Highest WAR with less 30 HRs - 8.0, 4th in MLB, Dustin Pedroia (21 HR)

Players with less 30 HRs with more than 5 WAR - 15 out of 29 (51.7%)

Players with single digit HRs - Brett Gardner (7 HRs) - 5.1 WAR; Jose Reyes (7 HRs) - 6.2 WAR

Players with more than 30 HRs, more than 600 PA's, and less than 2 WAR - Mark Reynolds (37 HRs) - 0.3 WAR; Ryan Howard (33 HRs) - 1.6 WAR

1B with less than 30 HRs and more than 3 WAR - 6 out of 12 (50%); Including 2 of the top 3, Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez.

Teams without a 30 HR hitter - 13 out of 30 (43.3%)

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Like valuing Dunks over layups

Runs are Runs are Runs.

by Wizard of Woz on Nov 8, 2011 3:51 PM EST reply actions

A home run is the most efficient way of scoring. The Hurdle approach of single-sacrifice-pray for another hit simply isn’t as effective.

by bolton on Nov 8, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions

And I know you’re not advocating for the sacrifice.

by bolton on Nov 8, 2011 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

I actually like this post

I’ll take a Billy Butler everyday. Doesn’t have huge Home Run power but hits .295 not .244. Strikes out every 6 at bats not every 4.

by pineapplepete on Nov 8, 2011 5:55 PM EST reply actions

Protection has been studied and found to not matter much...

The notion of protection makes intuitive sense, and we’ve certainly observed certain powerful hitters being pitched around more than others. However, sabermetric studies have been done to conclude that the effects of protection are slim to none in the overall run production of the lineup. Sure it will change the character of the players’ stats…the feared hitter will walk more (thus scoring more runs) and drive in less. However, these more or less balance themselves out at the team level, and the whole is basically the sum of the parts. If you think there is a flaw in the studies, then do the dirty work and prove us wrong with a more nuanced study or different approach (it’s good for sabermetrics when this type of thing happens, and it has happened before). I don’t have links handy at the moment, but searching The Book Blog is a good start.

As for fear, sure it’s possible that fear causes pitchers to pitch more carefully, which paradoxically gives them more pitches to hit. However, that still would show up in the stats we are using. If you want to argue that a hitter’s power and ability to draw walks are not independent upon one another, that’s fine, but I don’t see that matters for your argument. So what exactly is sabermetrics missing here?

Sabermetrica

by mickeyg13 on Nov 8, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions

I'm

assuming you are focusing on my statement,

I don’t believe sabermetrics completely explain the effect of power, specifically homerun power, on a player’s value, measured here in WAR.

I was unclear. I simply was trying to say WAR doesn’t quantify the effects of “protection” and “fear.” That seems very clear to me. wOBA doesn’t take them into effect last time I checked. Therefore, neither does wRAA, and so fangraph’s WAR stat doesn’t. Now if you are arguing they have 0 effect, then why did you say “found not to matter much” instead of “they don’t matter at all.”

Anyway, I put all this in here to avoid arguments that I failed to account for “protection” and “fear.” I pointed out I had not and while they aren’t included in WAR, their effects are statistically insignificant. Basically I didn’t want to hear “WE NEED A POWER HITTING 1B TO PROTECT PEDRO ALVAREZ; THAT’S WHY HIS YEAR WAS SO BAD.” Clearly neither do you. Thank you for posting the links to back up my point.

I’m assuming you aren’t trying to take a shot at me, but if you knew my ideologies concerning baseball you would realize that I’m a big sabermetrics fan.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 8, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions

The idea is that they seem to matter so little that it isn't really worth the time to adjust WAR to account for it, I think that is the general gist of the argument

by Justin Mos on Nov 8, 2011 9:58 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I was just protecting myself.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 8, 2011 11:43 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for picking on me. It shows you read what I had to say.

I realize 30-home run players don’t grow on trees. That’s why I don’t buy the argument that the Pirates shouldn’t sign Cespedes because they already have Marte, Grossman, Presley and Tabata. Bell, of course, projects as a 30-home run hitter, but he’s four or five years from the majors and might never get past Double-A.

by bolton on Nov 8, 2011 7:36 PM EST reply actions

Ya

I wasn’t trying to say your comment or thoughts or dumb. I just wanted to take the specific quote. I’ll fix it.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 8, 2011 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

No need to fix anything.

by bolton on Nov 8, 2011 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

No

lol. It was unfair. I wouldn’t appreciate that if someone did the same to me. Already “fixed”

are* dumb for the record.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 8, 2011 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

Anyway, it’s a good post Truth. I like the advanced metrics, but I generally think you can use a simple formula to predict a winning team: It draws more walks than it throws and hits more home runs than it allows.

by bolton on Nov 8, 2011 8:07 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

and again sorry.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Nov 8, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions

Then again walks+homers for<walks+homers against for the 2010 San Francisco Giants...

by Justin Mos on Nov 8, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions

those darn Giants...

I just checked the 2011 stats.

Four NL clubs had more HR than HRA and more BB than BBA: Arizona, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and St. Louis. (Surprisingly, Florida almost did it.)

Six had fewer HR than HRA and fewer BB than BBA: Cubs, Cincy, Houston, LAD, Pittsburgh, San Diego.

by bolton on Nov 8, 2011 10:13 PM EST up reply actions

That's telling.

by bucdaddy on Nov 9, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

i agree.

im not a fan of building through power, but that kind of stat opened my eyes.

by white angus on Nov 9, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

still, you can argue that Arizona, Philly, Milw and StL play half their games in hitter friendly environments

while SD, LA and Pitt play half their games in pitcher friendly parks.

by white angus on Nov 9, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Right, but...

So do their pitchers. This is a comparison of what a team’s hitters do versus what their pitchers give up, not a comparison of how many home runs StL hits vs. SD, for example. The team’s hitters and pitchers are always playing in the same ballpark. Or so I assume.

by jperb on Nov 9, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

ha! love the "assume" finish...

kudos!

by white angus on Nov 9, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

that some sabermetric stats tend to downplay the value of power. For example, I think the WAR of power hitters is often held down because when they play in the traditional “power positions” their WAR is reduced because they play an easier position, even if they play it well. A mediocre CF is given more credit (in terms of WAR) than a good RF. While this may make sense when tabulating a player’s value, I think as a whole it probably hurts power hitters more because the bulk of them play these “easy” positions.

by KentuckyPirate on Nov 8, 2011 10:13 PM EST reply actions

theres a reason for that though

Assuming they both hit the same, a speedy, great defensive CF will provide more value to his team than a hulking 1B. The CF could play 1B and be just as effective there, while the 1B could play CF and he’d be a disaster on defense.

Basically, Andrew McCutchen does not provide the pirates the same value if he played CF all season, compared to if he played 1B all season. The bat is the same, but however you measure it, by WAR or just plain watching, McCutchen is more valuable playing CF. That’s what positional adjustment is for.

by titanlord91 on Nov 9, 2011 12:16 AM EST reply actions

oops, that was a reply to kentuckypirate

by titanlord91 on Nov 9, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

I understand the reasoning behind the positional adjustment

what I was saying is that a positional adjustment is more likely to affect power hitters than contact hitters. I think the above analysis, and most that look at the value of a power hitter, typically focuses on their offensive contribution. Therefore, to use a stat like WAR that penalizes power hitters more often than contact hitters is not completely fair in this type of analysis (where the suggestion is that power helps an offense in ways that aren’t quantified, like protection and being pitched carefully).

by KentuckyPirate on Nov 9, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions