Neil Walker Extension Shouldn't Be A Priority
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 8, 2011 6:12 PM EST
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PrintFor some reason - I think probably because the Pirates' 2012 payroll currently appears to be at rock bottom, and fans aren't sure what to make of that - the subject of a Neil Walker extension has come up once again.
I wrote about a possibility of a Walker extension back in August. It's certainly not the worst use of the Pirates' money and time, but I don't think it should be a particularly pressing issue either. Walker is already 26 and doesn't exactly have amazing upside (although he's good enough and young enough that a spike in performance is certainly still possible), and many young players who get extensions through their arbitration years are better than he is. The Pirates also control his rights for five more years, and given that Walker is a flawed player and a second baseman and is already 26, there's no value in getting him to sign a long-term deal in order to control his rights beyond that time period. (That is, Walker will be 31 by the time he's through with the arbitration process anyway, and there's no reason to sign him to a long-term deal now in order to control his age-31 and age-32 seasons. Even if they're just team options, it's questionable what the Pirates would really be getting out of such a move.)
So there's really no reason to go nuts. The only really good reason to sign Walker to an extension is to take advantage of his local ties, and to hope that his desire to stay in Pittsburgh is worth more to him than money.
Walker is a good player, but not a great one. He's improving as a defensive second baseman, but not so much that his glove has value there. He hits line drives, but doesn't hit that many homers. He doesn't draw enough walks. He's good enough that we should be thrilled to have him around for now, but not so good that the Pirates should be planning on building around him for the next five years. One recent message-board post even proposed signing him for five years and $30 million, which is insane in the membrane, given that the Pirates control his rights at the league minimum next season. If the Bucs were to sign him to an extension for half that, that would be fine. But I wouldn't make it a priority.
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I have no problem with the Pirates working out a deal with Walker for cost certainty,
if it’s similar in manner to the one Tabata recieved, since they’re about the same age.
I don’t see the need at this point, though, to guarantee any of Walker’s FA years. They could come back to the extension issue this time next year.
パトリック
I'm a huge N. W fan
And I pretty much agree.
I do think he will get better defensive wise and eventually be better then average. There is definitely no urgency but it would be nice to get a steal in his arbitration years. That way we can have cost certainly and can work on cutch’s deal and know how much we can spend without worrying about N.W. busting out and his ARB numbers going high.
age of last winning season: 5
by Bobby Hill on Nov 8, 2011 6:35 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The only urgency for an extension on the Pirates roster, if an urgency exists, would be Cutch. And that’s probably not even urgent this season, unless they are afraid of what his Arb 1 salary will be with a good 2012.
If they’d like cost certainty, then, sure, go ahead and extend Walker, but it wouldn’t be a big priority unless he has a breakout 2012.
5 year 30 million?????
Who is that a$$clown? smdh
i love how you think 31 or 32 is considered “old”. and the fact that out of all the 2nd baseman in the majors, who else had as good of an overall season as walker?? both offensively and defensively. him leading the majors in RBI’s amongst 2nd basemen on top of being a finalist for the NL gold glove at 2nd. cano, phillips, pedroia, and walker stand alone in the talk of productive major league 2nd baseman this season
Walker
The only NL 2nd b man I take over walker for next year would be Phillips. But what he means is there is no reason to rush into a contract with a guy that you already have control over through his prime years.
Also using RBI totals as an argument around here is not a good idea. Same as fielding % which I believe is main factor in gold glove voting.
age of last winning season: 5
by Bobby Hill on Nov 8, 2011 9:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
zobrist
People need to put Ben Zobrist on their list of good second basemen. He is really good.
(Also, Chase Utley — he missed time but was good when he played.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 8, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
chase is awesome
He is one of my favorites but if I had to choose 1 based on age , contract and production I think walkers the better value. I also like zobrist and also i Can’t believe I left out rickie weeks he is pretty awesome
age of last winning season: 5
by Bobby Hill on Nov 8, 2011 10:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
alot of you people on here are such sabermetrics nerds its unbelieveable. granted I know they are very important and pivotal to scouting. but saying that RBI totals, a long lasting traditional baseball statistic, is not valid in discussing a player’s potential and output is just plain stupid. seriously saying that traditional stats mean nothing in arguments is dumb, such as ichiro’s hits in a season record, reynolds’ strikeout record, howard’s number of strikeouts in a season, guys like weaver and verlander’s number of K’s in a season, etc. lets just throw everything that pertains to the entire season rather than measuring in game activity (the true definition to sabermetrics) out the door like batting avg, HR, RBI’s, on base percentage, hits, ERA, WHIP, K’s, etc. this is totally a world of sabermetrics now that the back of baseball cards have always had their sabermetrics on the back. lets just start basing teams records from now on using the pythagorean expectation and give the cy young, mvp’s, silver slugger based entirely on WAR
alot of you people on here are such sabermetrics nerds its unbelieveable.
Thanks! It’s an honor just to be nominated.
but saying that RBI totals, a long lasting traditional baseball statistic, is not valid in discussing a player’s potential and output is just plain stupid.
RBI totals don’t reflect the number of RBI opportunities the player collecting the RBI received. A guy who comes to bat with 100 runners on base and drives in 75 of them is doing a better job of driving in runs than a guy who comes to bat with 150 runners on base and drives in 100 of them, even though the latter has many more RBI. Nor do they reflect the difficulty of any given RBI opportunity. A player who comes to bat with a runner on first and two out and gets the runner home is delivering a much more impressive performance than a player who comes to bat with a runner on third and nobody out and then hits a sac fly… yet both receive 1 RBI for their efforts.
Sabermetrics is the search for truth: When Player X did Thing Y, how much value did it generate for his team? If stats like RBI and pitcher wins and batting average are out of favor, it’s because they don’t do a good job of reflecting the actual value generated by the player for his team.
by Vlad on Nov 9, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Just wondering
How does NW’s RBI performance stack up against the criteria you identify?
People have talked about revising RBI
to reflect those criteria. One concept is along the lines of xRBI, where you rate a player against what he “should” have done, based on Run Expectancy or whatever, while the other (I think this is a Posnanski idea) would be a counting stat, but it can go up and down. Strike out with the bases loaded and no outs? You just lost an RBI or two.
If you prefer obsolete...
…but the point being that RBI’s tell us nothing about a player that wOBA or OPS doesn’t already. In fact it tells us a lot less, with a lot more room for error. So in a sense it is useless because it has been replaced by newer, better metrics. I don’t mind “traditional stats” if they tell me something unique. Batting average for example tells me something unique that newer stats do not.
I still have a working Windows 98 PC, a working Windows XP Laptop, and a Windows 7 Desktop, guess which I don’t use…..It’s not because the Windows 98 PC is useless in of itself, if I had no other option, I could do some basic typing and maybe some email, it’s just obsolete. But in a practical sense it is useless, because the chances of me ever having to actually use it are remote.
RBIs do tell us something
The problem is, they don’t tell us much about the player’s talent level, and they don’t even tell us as much about performance as you might think. They tell us… well, how many runs scored when he was batting.
I still have a working Windows 98 PC, a working Windows XP Laptop, and a Windows 7 Desktop, guess which I don’t use
My guess is that you use the XP to pinch-hit, even though it’s not very good at it.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 9, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OK
give the cy young, mvp’s, silver slugger based entirely on WAR
Let’s look at the past three seasons to see how this would play out.
2008 NL MVP – Albert Pujols (9.6 WAR – 1st in NL)
2009 NL MVP – Albert Pujols (9.2 WAR – 1st in NL)
2010 NL MVP – Joey Votto (5.9 WAR – 3rd in NL; Pujols (7.1) and Adrian Gonzalez (6.0) ahead)
2008 AL MVP – Dustin Pedroia (5.2 WAR – 9th in AL); Joe Mauer was first at 8.7
2009 AL MVP – Joe Mauer (7.9 WAR – 1st in AL)
2010 AL MVP – Josh Hamilton (7.0 WAR – 3rd in AL; Longoria (7.6) and Miguel Cabrera (7.2) ahead)
2008 NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (6.9 WAR – 1st in NL)
2009 NL Cy Young – Tim Lincecum (6.3 WAR – 1st in NL)
2010 NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay (7.0 WAR – 2nd in NL; Ubaldo Jiminez (7.2) ahead of him)
2008 AL Cy Young – Cliff Lee (7.3 WAR – 1st in AL)
2009 AL Cy Young – Zach Greinke (9.0 WAR – 1st in AL)
2010 AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez (6.2 WAR – 1st in AL)
The player who finished 1st in WAR in their league among position players and pitchers won 8 of the 12 awards, 2nd place won 1 and 3rd place won 2 (the questionable Votto over Pujols decsion in 2010). Only the selection of Pedroia over Mauer for 2008 AL MVP stands out as an aggregious miscarraige of voting justice.
For argument, this year’s awards would look like this:
AL MVP – Jose Bautista (8.5 WAR)
NL MVP – Matt Kemp (10.0 WAR)
AL Cy Young – Justin Verlander (8.6 WAR)
NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay (7.4 WAR)
Each of those guys is a legitimate candidate for the respective awards, so I would say that using WAR would just be a purely objective way of giving out awards that usually come to the same conclusion using the subjective practice of having baseball writers vote on them.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
i like the work you put in there
but because im not a metric guy this will come off as im arguing just to argue:
is WAR really necessary on those lists above? you could go off of all the basic stats and figure out which guys are the best players, right???
do you really need to know a guys WAR, or wRAA, or UZR to determine if hes MVP worthy? I say its kind of a waste of energy.
look at 2011: Matt Kemp. He put up monster numbers this year. Easily the best of his career and arguably the best overall numbers in the game. He lead the league in Runs, HRs and yes, RBI. He was amongst the league leaders in Batting average, stolen bases, hits, OPS and XBH. He also lead the league in total bases. His park adjusted OPS, which is one of the newer metrics that dont piss me off, was through the roof with improvement. im not even going to mention the UZR stuff because……
so we already know without calculating for WAR that Kemp was a complete badass.
we already know this using the classic stats that baseball already has. so whats the point in it?
maybe baseball stats could be like Mapquest. You can give new and improved mapquest a try, or just stick with classic mapquest. either way, the map is the same.
as far as Pedroia goes...
theres no reason to think he DIDNT deserve to win that award. i will always stick by my belief that it takes more than just stats to win, and DP that season kicked into 2nd gear and the Sox rode him all the way.
we already know this using the classic stats that baseball already has. so whats the point in it?
You may know that, but a hell of a lot of members of the BBWAA have decided that you can’t be “valuable” if you aren’t playing for a contender.
how can a list of 2nd baseman who are productive not include Ian Kinsler?
.370 wOBA, positive UZR past 3 years, more walks than K’s last year, all with a .243 BABIP dragging him down and he’s not even that old. If that isn’t productive your standards are crazy. Also, Howie Kendrick looks to be good, and also the players other people have mentioned.
who else had as good of an overall season as walker??
Pedroia, Kinsler, Zobrist, Phillips, Kendrick, Cano, Weeks, and Espinosa.
Unless you just mean offensively, in which case it’s Pedroia, Kinsler, Zobrist, Phillips, Kendrick, Cano, Weeks, Espinosa, Uggla, and a tossup with Carroll.
by thecheeseisblue on Nov 8, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
eh, i wouldnt throw espinosa and uggla in there
almost all of Uggla’s numbers came after the allstar break, al la LaRoche, and espinosa had some good power stats but nothing else
almost all of Uggla’s numbers came after the allstar break
You consistently make arguments based on the Pirates’s first half, and then dismiss Uggla because he had a strong half, but it was the second half. In your world, Does only the first half count or what? Over the course of the year, Uggla was very productive. To me, it doesn’t matter if his bad games are grouped at the beginning of the year, instead of scattered throughout the season. What’s your reasoning on this?
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 9, 2011 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
oh cmon
if Uggla were a pirate and was still batting under 200 after the allstar break, you would be bitching for his head on a stake…
anyway, most of my arguments on here are for the sake of creating some good discussions on this blog. and i dont lower myself by spewing hatred, or vile comments towards others when doing so. i also pride myself in not ridiculing the players… except for Josh Hamilton, of course.
one of the goals of a blog is to get a good discussion going, make it last, and make it worthwhile. being right or wrong doesnt matter on a blog because it just doesnt matter what any of us think. talking about it like smart, informative fans is all that matters.
even when im wrong.
that being said...
if Uggla were putting up an OPS of around 600 the first half of the season for a team like the Pirates, he may have been benched or even traded at the deadline.
laroche had good numbers as a pirate, but almost all of his damage came after the team was out of contention. when he came over from the Braves, his numbers werent as skewed. so how valuable is a player when he is so inconsistant in his production? garrett jones fits this profile as well.
walker, IMO, had an average season. but at least he was consistantly average.
I've never understood this point
laroche had good numbers as a pirate, but almost all of his damage came after the team was out of contention
If the Pirates go 41-40 in the first half of the year, then go 40-41 in the second half of the year, they finish with a record of 81-81.
If the Pirates go 55-26 in the first half of the year, then go 26-55 in the second half of the year, they finish with a record of 81-81.
If the Pirates go 26-55 in the first half of the year, then go 55-26 in the second half of the year, they finish with a record of 81-81.
Why do people act like games played in April and May are important because the team is still in “contention”, but games in August and September aren’t because the team is not in “contention?”
The 2007 Colorado Rockies are the perfect example of why every game played is important, regardless of what time of year it is held.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
i was just saying thats why Laroche is looked down upon as a pirate
no matter what anyone thinks on this blog about Laroche, good or bad, he will always be considered as one of the problem players from the DL era.
it doesnt matter what stats he accumulated at the end of the season, thats just the way he is perceived.
when laroche struggled during the spring, the venom spewed at him would make Pete Rose blush.
and if Uggla were a pirate and had the exact same start he did in 2011, tell me that the fans/blogs wouldnt be ripping him a new one.
prove me wrong.
Yup, when he was bad
and at the end of the year, you look at the aggregate numbers and say, he had a pretty decent year. Just like LaRoche.
by Wizard of Woz on Nov 9, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
except that he would do it on a bad pirate team and not a good braves squad
which means that he wasnt necessarily making the team play poorly, but he surely wasnt helping them play any better either.
Actually
2011 provided definitive evidence that first half wins count more. Thanks to the extremely uneven distribution of wins, the Pirates drew more fans than they had in 10 years, although it was not their most winning season in that timeframe. That’s worth millions of dollars to the team, and probably did some long-term good as well in terms of cementing fan loyalty/interest.
and probably did some long-term good as well in terms of cementing fan loyalty/interest.
you couldnt tell that by reading on this blog… :-D
2011 provided definitive evidence that first half wins count more.
In terms of increasing attendance, revenue generation and fan interest, no argument here.
In terms of final standings, doesn’t matter if you win April 1 or September 30. One win is one win.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
by Bishop1973 on Nov 9, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well sure
But if the choice is between 72 wins and $2M operating profit and 72 wins and $8M operating profit, I know which I’d pick.
Not to mention that it was, you know, fun.
Not to mention that it was, you know, fun.
The first half was more fun than usual. The second half was less fun than usual.
On the whole, I think I had a fairly typical amount of fun for the year as a whole.
Hmm
Don’t think I agree. The second half felt pretty much exactly like August and September in every Pirates season I can remember, certainly since before the NH era. But the first half was heady. And the fact that it came with signs of interest from the city as a whole, for once making my Pirate fandom seem like a normal, accepted behavior, was a super-bonus.
If I had truly believed we could contend, then the second half would have felt worse than late ‘10 or late ’09, but instead it was the same .333 late summer play that has been a hallmark of Huntington teams (not blaming him, but it’s happened every year under him, more or less).
not to me
The second half felt pretty much exactly like August and September in every Pirates season I can remember
I was more thoroughly disheartened in August and September of this past year than at any time in recent memory. The sheer magnitude of the dropoff was devastating, given the heightened expectations I had after the way the first half played out. I would have preferred that the team started slowly and finished strong — that would at least have given me some hope that next season would see some improvement. Instead, I have just the opposite expectation for next season.
I was more thoroughly disheartened in August and September of this past year than at any time in recent memory. The sheer magnitude of the dropoff was devastating…
This is more or less my feeling as well. We simply weren’t scoring runs at all, and the rotation’s total collapse was extremely frutrating as well.
I dunno
I don’t have time to run the numbers right now, but I know that both late 2009 and late 2010 featured teams playing at a sub-.333 Pythag rate; I have trouble believing the 2011 edition was significantly worse than that. Worse, sure, but obviously so? I have my doubts.
Of course, I also recall that late summer of 2009 and 2010 featured me yelling that the team was absolute shit, and people here disagreeing with me (“They won’t lose 100, it takes extraordinary badness to do that”), so that may be the source of the disparity.
Yes but
the late 2009 and 2010 team swoons came after the Pirates traded away guys like Bay, Nady, Sanchez, Wilson and Laroche. This years swoon came after they added guys at the deadline.
I'd only pick...
the 72 wins and $8M operating profit if I was SURE that it would be reinvested in the major league roster in short order. And at this point, I’m not sure it will be.
If the contract is something agreeable, then i have no problem
I just don’t want to see a Jason Kendall like deal which hangs around the PBC like an Albatross.
The Kendall deal is my favorite deal to mention when someone says "overpay a free agent by a small bit, it's going to be worth it!"
I think I’ll make a fanpost about it now.
or jack wilson
after his monster 2004, littlefield signed him to a deal that essentially assumed he’d win the silver slugger every season.
Kendall wouldn’t have been overpaid if his performance hadn’t fallen off a cliff due to the thumb injury. Based on his pre-injury stats, he was worth the deal he got.
by Vlad on Nov 9, 2011 4:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Couldn't agree more
I’d still ask what he would want for a 5 or 6 or 7 year deal, just to hear the price. I’m willing to sign people for the very long term if they sign Tabata level deals, even though we are unlikely to find another one of those.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Just to look at numbers
Assuming he averages 3 WAR/year over his years of control (IMO a pretty justifiable assumption – he should have a peak year between 4 and 5 wins in there, which should soak up any subpar or injury years), and using a simplistic 40/60/80 arb schedule:
2012 – $0.4M
2013 – $0.4M
2014 – $6M
2015 – $9M
2016 – $12M
TOTAL – $28M
That’s without inflation, and without arbitrators overreacting to a breakout year; if he were to earn 4 wins in ’12 and 4.5 in ’13, his 2014 payday could be huge – 8 or 9 million. But even the more modest numbers are pretty likely because he puts up numbers that arbitrators prize – AVG, RBI, and FP.
I wasn’t expecting this outcome at all when I started this comment, btw. All of a sudden, 6/30 actually looks like a good deal for the Pirates – you’re probably getting that last year for just $2M, which is decent value for anything short of guy going Overbay.
It also makes me think that they should try damned hard to find a replacement for 2015, and hope to move him in a trade before he gets too expensive. If he’s solid in ’12 and ’13, then a 6/30 contract would make him eminently tradable.
i think this
is pretty much an upper bound on what he gets paid. I’m going to argue that its going to end up as 0.45/0.45/ 4.5/6.5/8.5
Show your work
What kind of WAR (or OPS+ + defense) do you think would lead to just $8.5M in his age 30 season? That would translate to a FA market value of $10.6M, which will be a lot less than 2 wins by that point (I should have worked in inflation in my numbers; it accelerates faster than I appreciated).
I don’t deny that this was a generous estimate, but as I say, I think there’s very realistic scenarios – based on timing of his best years, and on how his production looks to arbitrators – that get him well above $30M over his controlled years.
i didnt work in inflation
so that’s definitely a drawback. Essentially, though, I don’t expect arb decisions to be made based on WAR. As a result, I think the arb committee will look around, decide that Walker isn’t in the upper tier of 2Bs (based on his HR/power numbers and perhaps familiarity). And the reasoning goes that the very top guys will get 18-20M, the Rickie Weeks around 12-15M, the solid good like Walker around 10-12M.
Naturally, all of this could change if Walker busts out and has a 4.5+ WAR season, but assuming that his true value is close to the 3WAR he produced this year, that’s what I’d expect.
assuming that his true value is close to the 3WAR he produced this year
I should have been clearer that this is what I’m assuming.
OK, gotcha
And I do understand your reasoning. But I think that his big RBI numbers (assuming he continues to bat a couple slots behind Cutch) and low error rates (because his flaws are in range, which don’t show up in E) will fool arbitrators into overvaluing him (or, perhaps, to valuing him correctly based on the wrong metrics).
Now let's be more skeptical
Let’s say his defense regresses and he proves to be a true talent ~100 OPS+ guy, making him more of a 2-2.5 WAR guy. And he never gets much above 3 wins, so the arbitrators don’t get stupid.
2014 – $5M
2015 – $7.5M
2016 – $10M
TOTAL – $23.5M
6/$30M is actually still a decent deal, believe it or not: his age 31 season, he’d (effectively) earn $6.5M, at a time when the average win will be worth something like $6.75M.
I think you have to be pretty down on Walker to come up with a scenario in which 6/30, or even 6/35, isn’t a worthwhile deal.
BTW
I realize that I misread Charlie, and that he was reacting negatively to a 5/30 proposal, which I agree wouldn’t make any sense. In general I don’t see much point in buying out arb years without getting any FA years. Yes, cost certainty, yes, front loading salary, but you’re risking hugely overpaying with limited upside. After all, the worst that can happen with arbitration is that a guy who’s performed well gets over-rewarded, and so you’re paying only a bit less than market value, instead of a lot less. But you’re still actually getting performance. Whereas a guaranteed contract can lead to a McLouth situation.
If I were NH, I’d see whether NFW would bite at something like 5/20 with a mutual option for $10M. That might be too light, but it (virtually) guarantees the Pirates get a bargain through the arb years, and there’s potential fat payday at the back end if Walker’s good. If he’s awesome, he deserves more and can go get it.
this is essentiall what I feel
If I were NH, I’d see whether NFW would bite at something like 5/20 with a mutual option for $10M
Not sure about the mutual option, but I’d do 6/30 or 7/38 or so fairly gladly. Even the 5/20 probably.
My thinking
is that the mutual option is the carrot to get him to take a pretty meager guaranteed number through the arb years – if he ends up significantly underpaid, he can go elsewhere (or renegotiate from strength), but there’s also a nice number there that he can achieve with good, solid performance (if he’s even close to league average, the team would almost certainly take the option, if only to trade him).
Meanwhile, from the FO’s POV, it’s a very low risk deal – assuming he survives 2013 healthy, the absolute worst you’ve done is pay market rate for wins that you could have gotten cheaper, but if he achieves any of his upside (2011 defense + 2010 offense), you’re ahead of the game by year 2 of arbitration.
what are mutual options, anyway?
I really don’t understand mutual options. A mutual option for $10M means that, if the player and the team agree, he can play for them for another year for $10M. Without the mutual option… if the player and the team agree, he can play for them for another year for $10M, by signing a 1/$10M contract. I guess there’s a signaling issue, but AFAICT the option is just meaningless.
This isn’t a knock on your post, just something that’s always bugged me. (Though if I were Walker I wouldn’t treat the mutual option as any sort of a carrot — it’d have to be a player option to work for me.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 9, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think you have to be pretty down on Walker to come up with a scenario in which 6/30, or even 6/35, isn’t a worthwhile deal.
You also need to account for the possibility of a significant (or even career-altering) injury. It’s not huge, but it’s real.
Sure
And I honestly don’t know how teams deal with that. For ~75% of position players under 30, there’s a small, uniform chance of that kind of injury in any given year; I’m not sure how FOs calculate that when deciding what’s a reasonable contract.
I know that teams have injury insurance for contracts; does anyone know how those are structured? Is it limited to season- or career-ending injuries?
[the other ~25% are the Reyeses and Doumits who, for whatever reason, are injury-prone; for them, you really have to build that likelihood into your number with a significant discount]
Don't know if it has been brought up yet...
…but NW is the type of guy that traditionally gets overpaid in arbitration because of his traditional counting stats are very good….so it might not be a bad idea to sign him through his arb years, and not really worry about buying out any free agent years for that reason.
Let's see, Charlie ...
I believe that the PBC wit the BMTIB has just concluded its 19th consecutive sub-.500 season and is about to embark on its 20th.
Exactly what should be the Pirates’ priorities if not properly rewarding the players who ‘they’ expect to be a part of a winning franchise? Notice that I said ‘they’, not ‘I’.
What does “rewarding” have to do with anything? It’s not a moral issue. It’s a matter of what’s best for the team in the long run.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 9, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Very Average
Walker was valuable to us in that there wasnt anyone else near consistent enough to plug into a middle order spot besides Cutch. He is the definition of a ‘sell high’ type of guy, but given his local ties, his value here is so much greater. I always thought he would make a plus 1st baseman with the glove and could give you Overbay-prime type numbers at the plate, filling 1st with a young player and opening up the middle for guys like Mercer, Chase, Harrison, Holt, FA to compete. Walker had 2 good months ..the other 2/3 of the season he was eh to bad at the plate. much of his RBI totals came from hitting 4th with the .350+ obp guys with speed in front of him, after he was moved down his totals really dropped. I like him for now, but long term he’s still a question and probably best served if he is batting 2nd vs lefties (singles/contact hitter), and 5th or 6th vs righties (much more power). i think if he hits 6th that means we signed a couple legit power bats…lets hope so!
yeah
walker’s value is increased because he could play multiple positions. he is already good at 3B, competent at 2B, and would probably be competent at 1B or corner OF if necessary. He can be moved around to accommodate other guys if necessary.
right
but wouldnt that tick off the “leave him alone” guys? saying that its too hard for a player to move from one position to another and expect him to be any good.
meaning, it was unfair for the pirates to not only move Walker off of catcher to 3B only to have the team move him once again after all that hard work in the initial position change
they should talk to Ben Zobrist who played 131 games at 2nd (with an .822ops and 72xbh) but also played 38 games in rf. i think Walker could do that (maybe not the 72 xbh)
by patient pirate on Nov 10, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
im not going to let walker block some stud 2B prospect just because it’d be “tough” to “learn” a new position. And honestly, I think the learning curve for 2B would be much higher than it would for 1B or OF (which he did get some time at in the minors before taking over for Iwamura)
all due respect to Zobrist
but he was never the prospect Walker was, and that Zobrist was going to end up a utility player anyway…
for the record, i could care less if they move Walker around the diamond.
baseball is baseball. if he doesnt like it, quit.
he was never the prospect Walker was
Sort-of. Zobrist was a less-well-regarded prospect at the time both players were drafted, but a more-well-regarde prospect at the time both reached the majors. Which has more to do with Walker’s stock being in the toilet at that time than anything else, but still…
a much less regarded prospect is more like it
when aquired by the Rays, he was said to be a light hitting utility infielder with better than average contact ability but no true strength, possible organizational filler. Talbot was the main aquisition.
Zobrist didnt even have stock. he exploded once he became a semi-regular and after the ballywhoed batting change. the injuries to Bartlett also got him more playing time at SS which helped him win the super utility spot in 09 when he became an OPS stud and allstar.
but before all of that, he was just a middle infielder who was behind pretty much everyone on the Rays depth chart. Walker was a multiple time member of the top 100 prospect club.
by white angus on Nov 10, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Talbot, 22, signed as a second-round pick out of a Utah high school in 2002. He had frustrated some Astros officials with his inconsistency in the past but has hit his stride this season. In 18 games (17 starts) at Corpus Christi, he went 6-4, 3.39. He had a 96-29 K-BB ratio in 90 innings, while opponents batted .269 with four homers against him. Talbot’s best pitch is his changeup, and he also owns a solid fastball. His ability to develop a reliable breaking ball will determine if he becomes a No. 3-5 starter or a middle reliever in the long run.
Zobrist, 25, has been old for his leagues but never has hit less than .304 at any of his four minor league stops. A sixth-round pick from Dallas Baptist in 2004, he was hitting .327/.434/.473 with thee homers, 30 RBIs and nine steals in 83 games at Corpus Christi. A switch-hitter, he stands out the most for his ability to handle the bat, but all his tools except for power are average. The Astros often compared him to former standout utilityman Bill Spiers, and Zobrist projects more in that role than as a regular.
-Jim Callis, in BA’s transaction writeup in 2006
Walker used to be a top prospect, but by 2009 his stock had dropped significantly. I’ll see whether I can find you the exact quote after I get home tonight. At that point, he looked like a long shot to have even Bill Spiers’s career.
also probably helps that Zobrist started at short
I’d guess that SS-2B-RF is an easier defensive progression to deal with than C-3B-2B-RF.
(Why are we talking about moving Walker to the outfield again? That doesn’t seem like something we need to do anytime soon. Lessee…. OK, I think titanlord is right that Walker’s positional flexibility helps him, though the obvious thing instead of putting him at first would be to put him at third and a functional Pedro at first. If we have a functional Pedro.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Nov 10, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if an extension that looks like this:
…would be acceptable to NFW?
2013: 2MM
2014: 3MM
2015: 4MM
2016: 5MM
2017: player option for 5.75MM
2018: mutual option for 6MM
2019: team option for 6.5MM
That’s 14MM guaranteed for Walker, cost certainty for the Bucs during his arb years, a very tradeable contract if they so desire and increasing team control over his status during the option years.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Obviously this assumes...
…the extension would be signed sometime next season.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
BTW Walker's monthly obp/ops
april .368/.815 very nice
may .287/.668 very very bad
june .303/.611 ugh
july .404/.889 awesome
aug .336/.721 eh
sept .301/.734 eh-
not sure why people think a player with a career minor league obp of .322 is going to greatly improve on that in the bigs after age 25. its nice that he has but its very possible that this is it folks
april .368/.815 very nice
may .287/.668 very very bad
june .303/.611 ugh
july .404/.889 awesome
aug .336/.721 eh
sept .301/.734 eh-
I’m not sure what you think that set of splits illustrates. Most players have significant month-to-month variation in their splits during any given year.
by Vlad on Nov 10, 2011 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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