Why Trading For Mark Trumbo Is A Bad Idea
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 11, 2011 11:21 PM EST
Email
Print
Tim writes about Mark Trumbo's trade value. There's been a ton of discussion of Trumbo here in the past week or so, but personally, I'd rather just avoid him. He's young enough that there are still a variety of possible outcomes for him, but given that the Pirates would presumably have to give up something of value to get him, I'd rather just say forget it.
Trumbo struck out five times as often as he walked last year, which helped result in his now-notorious .291 on-base percentage. He's not so young that you'd expect him to make great strides in that area, and so I think the most likely career path here is something like that of Mike Jacobs with slightly better defense - a nice guy to have around if he's cheap, due to his power, but never a star, and he'll start to become a problem once he hits arbitration.
UZR says Trumbo's defense in his rookie season was good, but he's never had much of a defensive reputation, so that seems like an area where he might regress to the mean next year. Also, as Tim points out, a player whose chief (well, pretty much only) tool is right-handed power isn't much of a fit for PNC Park. He does have a lot of power, but if his home-run total drops from 29 to 23 or so, Pirates fans are going to get frustrated pretty quickly, because he doesn't provide much else. Pass.
55 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Yep
Hit the nail on the head.
Two numbers describe it all
.291 OBP
4.4 BB%
Pass.. on Trumbo.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 11, 2011 11:27 PM EST reply actions
I’d also let Trumbo go, basically for the same reasons you mentioned. One more thing, too — Of Trumbo’s 29 home runs last year, 23 of them were either to left or left center field. That makes him a pretty lousy fit for PNC Park.
Exacerbating that problem, Angel Stadium had a home run park factor of 93 last year for RHB. At PNC, that figure was just 73.
In short, I think it’s pretty likely Trumbo would hit for substantially less home run power if he were playing 81 games per year in Pittsburgh.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
Errr, I see you kind of touched on that at the bottom of the post. That’ll teach me not to read to the bottom.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Dec 11, 2011 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Who then...
… would be your primary target based on production (mostly future), age and (expected) trade cost?
Good answer!
One market we haven’t talked about would be those athletic power hitting OF’er who may be conversion candidates for 1st base. I wouldn’t want a statue at first, but somebody with the frame and athleticism of J. Hayward would be a good candidate. G. Jones would have fit that mold with limited upside.
I thought the same about Trumbo, until...
I started looking more into his minor league stats. He didn’t profile as the plodding masher he looked like last year. His total MiLB slash line was .275/.330/.474. His K% has stayed around 20%, but his BB% has been consistently greater than 6.0%. Before his breakout year in 2010 (taken in proper context because it was the PCL), his doubles basically doubled his homers. I never saw him play, but that sounds to me like a player growing into his power potential (something Billy Butler STILL hasn’t done). Since he hasn’t repeated a level since low-A Cedar Rapids at age 20, I’m more apt to attribute his low peripherals to adjusting to MLB pitching; even if he was just a smidge old at 25.
I’m not necessarily for acquiring Trumbo, but I really started to tear into his past numbers looking for an excuse to discount him over the past few weeks and really haven’t seen anything too alarming. Of the names I’ve seen floated here as a potential long-term 1B solution, assuming the cost is essentially equal, I like him much more than Morales, Cron, or (especially) Butler.
Trumbo has only once had a BB/AB greater than 10%, which is kind of the limit for a guy projecting to have an adequate ML OBP, unless he can hit like .320 (which Trumbo can’t).
Also, Trumbo’s only two strong offensive performances in the minors came in extremely strong offensive environments, i.e. Rancho and Salt Lake.
He’s not a good bet going forward.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 8:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
you haven't adjusted for those numbers being in MiLB
THT Forecasts MLE’s
Year Age BA/OB/SA wOBA Fld ISO BB% SO%
2008 22 243/273/429 298 -3 186 041 228
2009 23 257/291/404 300 -1 147 051 225
2010 24 250/310/452 328 -1 202 081 282
2011 25 255/293/485 329 +4 230 044 212
His BB and SO both spiked up in 2010, back to previous levels in 2011. ISO isn’t super high.
by Brian Cartwright on Dec 12, 2011 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
That may be true
but is he worth the the price? Would you give Marte for him?
by Wizard of Woz on Dec 12, 2011 8:12 AM EST up reply actions
whatever man
you know its true… and vlad, you do too.
im not saying trade for Trumbo, im just stating an obvious fact. he WOULD BE the best 1Bman in our system TODAY.
by white angus on Dec 12, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
Very true.
Proud fan of Pittsburgh's professional sports teams and the Pirates too.
by Black&GoldTrain on Dec 12, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I think he and Jones are pretty much even, actually.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 6:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Trumbo
If his home run power would drop from 29 to 23 in PNC, why trade for him. Don’t we already have a 23-25 HR guy in Garrett Jones?
2012 ZiPS for Trumbo: .253/.295/.437, good for a 98 OPS+. His three comps are Richie Sexson, Julio Zuleta, and Dave Hengel.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 8:30 AM EST via mobile reply actions
It kind of goes without saying, but those obviously aren’t starting-1B-caliber numbers. They come with 25 HR… but also a 34/141 BB/K.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 8:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
and ZIPS is never wrong
not even when they made sneakers
by white angus on Dec 12, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
It's just a prediction...
…but it’s one from a system that I use and respect. It’s not ironclad, but it’s not nothing, either.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 6:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Great post Charlie and McCutchenIsTheTruth
I wouldn’t trade anything for him at this time, I think a regression is likely. I’d rather play Jones and Hague.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
There is that, at least. If we’re willing to totally punt the position and get replacement-level production, Hague can do it on the cheap.
All in all, though, it’s probably better to go out and get a good option, or a decent option, or just go with Jones for another year.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 10:22 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Read my mind.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Well since the Pirates are already on MLB's blacklist for draft spending...
….and if we must have a Trumbo….is Dalton available?
…
I’m sorry, that’s the best I can do on a Monday morning
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Rough night
with “the chinchilla?”
;-)
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
A humble question...
Do we or will we need to prepare a hitter to play DH for 2013? I know that is an easy slot to be replaced, and there isn’t clear whatever the schedule will be. But the Pirates don’t have a power hitter in their system, and that will be a disadvantage when there are more interleague games. (Or the pitcher-at-bat rule will be dismissed?)
Are there going to be more interleague games, or just the same number spread out more?
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Well, the way I figure
each team plays 54 series. Assuming that there are 54 sets of series a year, and each series set must have an odd number of inter-league games, that leaves us with a minimum of 54 series split up between 15 teams per league. Or between 1 and 2 series a year. I am sure they will add more, but the change in frequency of inter-league games does not necessarily mean that there will be an increase in the volume of inter-league games played.
by Wizard of Woz on Dec 12, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if NH has checked on Dmitri Young?
I posted this on another thread, but thought it made sense to add it here as well.
Young is 38 and has reportedly lost 70+ pounds in an attempt to make a come back. If it would only take a minor league deal for Young with an invite to ST, I think it would be a good gamble for a guy with a career .292/.351/.475 slash line.
Could be a low risk, high reward situation.
I had the same thought
But my concern is the guy hasn’t seen MLB pitching in like, what, 2 years? How much timing has he lost? Does he remember what a curveball looks like when it breaks, as opposed to a fastball? I’d be pretty leery if the team made him the starting 1B right after signing him.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Obviously that is what you would need to determine during ST and maybe a month at AAA. If it is a minor league deal, no harm in that at all. My guess is if he has lost all that weight, he has been doing a lot of cage work as well and perhaps some live practice as well. But your concerns are legit.
True
But you still need a contingency plan at that point to play first for the first month or so of the season. If he’s right though, and he’s been doing the work in the cage that you suspect, then it could be a huge signing for us.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
So you would pass on a young Trumbo but are willing to give a 38 year old whose been out of baseball a chance? Come on.
Proud fan of Pittsburgh's professional sports teams and the Pirates too.
by Black&GoldTrain on Dec 12, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't cost prospects to get him though
With Trumbo, coming off the season he just had, it’s going to be expensive to get him.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
no offense but F the prospects
Trumbo has years of control left, and he could possibly be better than he showed in 2011.
chances are the prospects whom are dealt for him dont even make a dent on the roster anyway.
Years of control are only valuable if the player in question is an above-average talent. Trumbo’s the kind of guy who gets non-tendered once he reaches his arb years.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 6:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Which is great
Except that the prospects will be much more valuable, especially if Trumbo falls off the table a bit like I expect.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Old or not, Dmitri Young has more hitting ability in his little finger than Trumbo has in his entire body.
I wouldn’t mind a NRI for Young, or a low-salary deal with incentives if he came in for a workout and looked good.
by Vlad on Dec 12, 2011 6:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Please check
your email
THX
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 12, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see him back just for his old chat handle on The Dugout
“SteakGrowsOnDmitri”
(This just made me laugh a long time. But what’s “DudeYou’reGettingADelmon”?)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 12, 2011 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bucs Dugout
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
- Josh Hamilton makes great catch, destroys part of fence at Safeco Field
