Arbitration Lottery
by WTM on Dec 12, 2011 10:00 AM EST
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Who gets tendered? Who doesn't? Tim has a rundown here, with some salary projections. The list:
Today's the deadline, so get your predictions in fast. The winner gets . . . respect.
My guess is they'll tender everybody but Veras. They'll consider him too expensive for a reliever. I'd tender everybody but Grilli.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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prediction
everyone gets tendered! it’s Oprah day in Pittsburgh. YOU GET A TENDERED! AND YOUUUUU GET A TENDERED!!!!
by Mingy on Dec 12, 2011 10:03 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Using the rationale of the FO
GFJ, Veras, and Resop will be non-tendered.
by BadAndy on Dec 12, 2011 10:10 AM EST via mobile reply actions
That's my fear
At this point though, they’d have to be nuts to non-tender Jones. After all they’ve sunk into SS and C, non-tendering Jones would get them back into a punt, or putting themselves in a position where it’s either a punt or another Overbay-style signing. Unlike 2011, we don’t have a raft of ~104 OPS+ 1Bs on hand.
It wouldn’t be hard to upgrade over Jones (although at what price?); that doesn’t mean it will happen, and it seems crazy to drop your insurance plan before you go looking for something better (note: any similarity between this statement and my dating history is purely coincidental).
I just listened to an interview with NH in which he talked about going with a platoon of Jones and Evans or Fox as a fallback from Lee. Jones isn’t going anywhere unless Lee signs in the next five hours or whatever.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
someone mentioned that Resop was on the pirates caravan
would be awkward if that happened
by white angus on Dec 12, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
prediction
They tender everyone but Grilli.
They non tender Hanrahan
But only after the announce they are going to do so and then try to deal him only to find no one wants to give up anything of value….
I know, THAT could never happen…could it?
For the record
I agree with WTM’s guess about what they’ll do. If it were up to me, I’d be tempted to tender them all, but I don’t have a feel for what kind of raise Grilli is looking at, and I don’t know who all is available – NH’s scouts may already have their eyes on a couple NRIs whom they expect to match Grilli’s performance, and possibly even Veras’ or Resop’s.
IOW, if they non-tender RPs, I’ll assume it’s because they actually have a backup plan. If they non-tender Jones, I’ll assume it’s because Nutting is cheap, and that he should sale the team.
if they non tender Jones
i wont miss a minute of sleep
by white angus on Dec 12, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
The only one I'm unsure of is Grilli.
I think they all get tendered.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Fail...
How ‘bout Grili gets tendered because he actually pitched well last year. Can’t imagine his number would be much over $1 million.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
MLBTR predicted $800,000...
…which seems fair. Grilli was one of the few decent post-All Star break surprises last year.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Calling it
They’ve all been signed long term for quite a while…and today we’ll find out.
by bosten7 on Dec 12, 2011 10:37 AM EST via mobile reply actions
My guesses
Joel Hanrahan – Lock
Jeff Karstens – Lock
Jose Veras – Coin flip. Not sure if they’ll want to shell out ~1.3MM and hope Good Jose shows up more often than Bad Jose. I’ll guess non-tender.
Garrett Jones – Another coin flip. If they manage to convince Lee to re-sign or snap up a James Loney if he’s non-tendered, they’ll be shelling out 2 million+ for a bench player. But if they non-tender him, then they’ll be stuck with Hague or Evans if Loney gets tendered and Lee signs with Cleveland or whoever. I’ll say they tender him if they don’t convince Lee to re-sign before the deadline.
Charlie Morton – Lock
Chris Resop – More than likely. I’ll say they do.
Evan Meek – More than likely. My guess is they’ll want to give him another full season to hopefully stay healthy. However, he was very uneven after his return from injury…if there’s going to be a “surprising” non-tender, it’ll be Meek. But I’m still pretty sure he stays.
Jason Grilli – Coin flip. He’s nothing that can’t be replaced, but he can also do long relief and Hurdle used him in a surprising amount of tough situations…over 40% of his innings were high-leverage. DCutch actually has an option left, so they may want to tender Grilli and send Daniel back to AAA. Tough call. I’ll say he’s tendered and they figure out the bullpen logjam later.
Long-winded way of saying “I agree with WTM’s forecast”
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Good call on Meek
No idea what sort of raise he’s due for, but you’r right that they could decide to cut bait.
I guess only GFJ, Grilli, Resop, and Veras are on the bubble...
GFJ gets tendered given the current alternatives at 1B, and his trade value otherwise
Grilli gets tendered because he was effective, and his prior relationship with Hurdle
Resop gets tendered because he’ll be cheap, and he’s on the caravan
Veras gets tendered because even though he faded down the stretch, he could still get the big strikeout
My guess is that they will tender everyone.
Veras’ costliness might lead to a non-tender but I think Huntington will sign him with the intention of trading him at the deadline. Huntington needs to explore every way possible to bring in young talent and trading relief pitchers like Veras (who can pitch at a high level) might be the way to offset some of the limitations of the new CBA.
Veras
I agree with you on Veras. I think he could to prove to be a very valuable trade chip and make it worth signing him.
Yeah I was just thinking that Huntington might be willing to eat his expensive salary for the chance at trading him for prospects later (or as part of a package etc..). The FO has to be racking their brains to figure out a way to get more talent into the system under the new CBA.
Veras could easily pitch well for us and be worth the minimal salary that he will receive plus he could net us a prospect or two. Much better than simply non-tendering him.
by Cainyoudigit on Dec 12, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
agreed
with the number of good teams needing “bullpen help”, he’d be hot if he hit the market
by insane_sanity on Dec 12, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
I think all should be tendered
I think in actuality Veras and Grilli will be non tendered.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I think there is no way they let Meek go. He was on fire the year before and a potential closer until Hanrahan beat him out and then he got hurt. Huntington has to be thinking that Meek could bounce back and stay healthy, he was a former rule 5 pick under Huntington, and he could fill in if Hanrahan gets hurt or is traded.
by Cainyoudigit on Dec 12, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Only Veras will get non-tendered
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
I sorta got this right huh?
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Any non-tender guys from around the league that interest you?
Mine is Daric Barton of the A’s. If he gets non-tendered we should sign him and add him to the 1st base pool.
They could do worse
Barton will never put up 5 WAR again, but he’s shown the ability to hit for average, draw some walks & have a good glove.
Hoping James Loney and his wacky Maserati driving ways get non-tendered. He’d be a solid candidate.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
But
Barton is the equivalent of Matt Hague. OK, he walks a bit more and hits for a slightly lower average. No more power. Now his dreadful year this year should be a result of the shoulder injury, but a full recovery is not guaranteed. I’d be willing to take a flyer, but recognize it as such.
Viva Clemente!
The grass is greener for some here
Give Hague no chance to play, yet they want to pick up guys off the scrap heap and give them a chance instead of him. I don’t get the reasoning of wanting AAA 1B that is 2-3 years older than him with equal or worse stats. I really don’t get it.
I never once said that I would give Barton the job and I never once said that Hague shouldn’t be given a fair chance. All I am saying is we could look at Barton and if he is non-tendered we offer him a contract and an opportunity to fight it out with every other so-so first baseman we have. Its not like we have a legit 1st base option right now so why would adding one more name to the list be a problem
by Cainyoudigit on Dec 12, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
On MLBTR list under the Pitchers
they list Chris Volstad and Joe Saunders as non tender possibilities, I would be very interested in both guys.
Volstad could be a decent 4/5...
…if he could consistently keep the ball in the damn park. His xFIP last year was actually 3.64…he had a 15.5% HR/FB rate.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
he's a sinker/slider guy
when the sinker doesn’t sink….your HR/FB rate jumps, right?
by insane_sanity on Dec 12, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I worry about Meek.
If his wing isn’t healthy and his stuff is pedestrian again, it will cause us trouble in the ’pen.
I guess he won’t get too much money, though, with arbitration this time.
パトリック
Tender everyone except for...
Resop and Grilli…Neal needs some bullpen holes to fill, doesn’t he?
hey
if there is one thing NH knows how to do, its how to build an MLB bullpen. Cant go wrong with a bunch of NRI that have live arms with a chance of finding a few gems in the rough
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
was going to say this myself
I believe everyone will be tendered but sure wouldn’t mind cutting ties with Resop & Grilli (Althought Grilli did impress me late last year) because they seem average-ish one pitch guys. I think VERAS is actually filthy and could prove to be an asset. Resop and Grilli have low ceilings. Wouldn’t mind having a few more Veras type finds added.
More than anything else the Neal has been SUPER SUCCESSFUL building bullpens out of nothing. even thunder has to respect that
People always say this, but I think this has been overstated. Remember Denny Bautista? Tyler Yates? It’s not like Resop and Veras are expensive.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 12, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Howzabout
iRomulo!
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 13, 2011 7:13 AM EST up reply actions
that's what I was thinking on Veras...
He is “expensive” when compared to other arms in OUR bullpen, but in reality…is he that expensive?
He is a little erratic for my taste (don’t like the walks), but that damn curveball is filthy.
by insane_sanity on Dec 12, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
In related news, Jesse Chavez was DFAd by Toronto today
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
of course
there were a few failures but overall many good moves. all i’m saying is that we know what we have in Resop (a decent MLB relief pitcher so not that valuable) and since we already have a solid bullpen i’d like to let Neal take a chance on some more higher upside Veras-esque options. Because why not?
I guess I just don’t think we have enough information to say Resop is a low-upside pitcher. His strikeout rate is terrific.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 12, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
He doesn’t really have much apart from the fastball. His main secondary pitch is his curve, and at least according to the pitch value tables at fangraphs, it’s not very effective.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
I think we went a little quickly
from “NH can’t build a bullpen” to “NH can build a bullpen in his sleep”. He turned a major failing in ‘08 and ’09 into a major strength in ’10 and ’11, but let’s not assume it’s 100% skill-driven.
That said, if he’s pinching pennies in the ‘pen to free up dollar bills for a SP, I’m all for it.
Right. I think there’s a lot of variance involved here.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 12, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Non-Tenders
Veras
Grilli (hope to sign him later)
Jones will be tendered unless they obtain a real 1B.
Meek could be their closer if they trade Hanrahan. He’s absolutely tendered.
What did NH say earlier?
“We’re going to non-tender some players that people don’t want us to non-tender,” Huntington said. “We’re going to tender some players that probably surprise some people.”
I could see Meek being non tendered if they feel his arm isn’t back to were it was
Meek is already pretty cheap
If they non tender him, it must mean he is not likely to return to form.
He's a clever chap
any chance to get Ohlie back in a FO position?
by BlindSquirrel on Dec 12, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
Grilli, Veras, and Meek
I can see them non tendering these guys, but then trying to sign them back on the cheaps.
Also, Meeks injury makes me wonder if they would even want to pursue him.
by EndlessMike on Dec 12, 2011 1:11 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Aramis Ramirez is coming back
to NLC. The Brew Crew just sign him for 3 years. Does anyone think Casey McGehee will be non-tendered? And anyone interested?
Joel Hanrahan – yes they tender him. If Meek Comes on strong after missing most of last year. he’ll get the closer job and Hanrahan will be traded.
Jeff Karstens – Nice to have either a long relief or Starting Pitcher again. If he Starts, hopefully he’s the good Karstens of 2011. Better than seeing Burress, or Aaron Heilman, or whoever else they have in AAA come up.
Jose Veras – No. Typically he was brought on in the 8th inning to branch the 7th to 9th innings and while his curveball is filthy we couldn’t trade him last year when the trade deadline came about i think. Unless The FO was thinking of trying to make the push and not trade Veras. But I think Meek will fill this role if all goes well.
Garrett Jones – Yes. without a veteran 1B (can you call him a veteran at this point?) aside from Evans. You need to tender him. If D Lee somehow comes back then you can either bench him or cut bait and run.
Charlie Morton – Yes. Electric Stuff/Ground Chuck got his act somewhat together and had a strong 1st half. Here’s to hoping he gets healthy and finally puts it all together.
Chris Resop – Yes. Resop was probably the Bullpen’s most reliable RP out of the pen last year not with the last name of Hanrahan. His LOB was incredible for a while and perhaps his overusage is what lead to his faltering later on in the year. He was placed in alot of high leverage situations last year.
Evan Meek – A wash year last year coming back from surgery. Hopefully he is able to bridge the 8th inning to Hanrahan.
Jason Grilli -My Guess is No. He was claimed off waivers and you can find many players like Grilli.
Part of the reason we couldn’t trade Veras at the deadline is he was a very important part of our pen and we were “in it.” So it was going to be hard to part with him and hope that Resop, McCutchen, Grilli or one of the AAA guys could step into his spot.
Veras
Don’t forget that Veras was one of the best arms we had prior to the All Star break 41 IP, 26 H 12 ER 19 BB 44 K 2.61 ERA and .182 batting average against.
He pitched a total of 71 innings last year after being between 48 – 57 IP the previous three seasons. Perhaps he simply wore down a little.
I’m pretty hopeful that they keep Veras. He’s an example of how WAR can sometimes undervalue relievers. He’s not quite our Mike Adams, but he’s a pretty effective reliever and isn’t that old. It won’t cripple the Bucs to lose him, but unless the salary really, really goes north, I’d hope they hold onto him.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
the IP are quite high
and I’m worried about the effect that will have on this season. I hope he goes, and disappoints elsewhere.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
My guess: Hanrahan will be the only reliever tendered.
So Veras, Grilli and Resop will not be tendered. Everyone else will be tendered.
How many relievers has NH offered arb to in his time in Pittsburgh??
If I were to pick one, I'd think it would be Resop.
Although, who knows, maybe Neal’s getting tired of having to build a bullpen every off-season!!
Here's a list of NH's tender/non-tender decisions about arbitration (I think I've got them all)
Dec. 2007:
Tendered: Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Xavier Nady, John Grabow, and Jose Bautista.
Non-Tendered: None
Dec. 2008:
Tendered: Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, John Grabow and Tyler Yates
Non-Tendered: Denny Bautista
Dec. 2009
Tendered: Zach Duke, Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Karstens (Super 2)
Non-tendered: Matt Capps
Dec. 2010
Tendered: Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan
Non-tendered: Lastings Milledge
by impliedi on Dec 12, 2011 7:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
And it answers my question above about how many relievers have been tendered/non-tendered bu NH
Tendered Grabow twice, Yates once, and Karstens (when he was the “swing man”).
He’s only not tendered contracts to D Bautista and Capps out of the bullpen.
When was it that Karstens was removed from the 40 man and unclaimed?
by MarkInDallas on Dec 12, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
late Nov. 2009
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 12, 2011 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
I may be wrong...
but I believe that Veal, Burres, and Argenis Diaz were also non-tenders last offseason.
In addition, the Pirates DFA Young, LaRoche and Duke in November because they didn’t plan to tender them contracts. Young got released, LaRoche got outrighted to Indy and Duke got traded to Arizona.
Veal, Burress and Diaz
were all non-tenders last year, however, they were not arbitration-eligible. Only Milledge was arb-eligible guy, who was non-tendered..
Per Jen L.
#Pirates have acquired INF Casey McGehee from #Brewers for RHP Jose Veras
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Well, I was basically right. Everybody’s coming back except Veras. The exact method was off.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Loophole:
Veras traded for McGehee, who was tendered, so technically, everyone got tendered.
.
.
…okay, not technically, but more like skew-it-so-it-comes-out-the-way-you-want.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Dec 13, 2011 7:15 AM EST up reply actions
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