Baseball Prospectus Loves Pirates' Top Prospects
by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 16, 2011 11:58 AM EST
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PrintBaseball Prospectus' list (subscribers-only) of the Pirates' top prospects is ... well, the tenor of it is pretty different from any list of Bucs prospects I can recall. It's full of sentences like "Heredia's ceiling is through the roof" and "Taillon has monster stuff" and "Marte is among the most exciting players in the minors." The cause is the Pirates' super-ambitious approach in the draft (and, to a lesser degree, in Latin America) - of the top 10, eight received signing bonuses of at least a million dollars. The article as a whole isn't overwhelmingly positive, noting that the Pirates still don't have a ton of hitting talent or enough depth, but it reads very differently than articles like these have in the recent past.
Here's the list:
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Luis Heredia
4. Josh Bell
5. Starling Marte
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Stetson Allie
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Colton Cain
10. Tony Sanchez
11. Bryan Morris
12. Jeff Locke
13. Clay Holmes
14. Nick Kingham
15. Rudy Owens
16. Zack Von Rosenberg
17. Alen Hanson
18. Justin Wilson
19. Gorkys Hernandez
20. Gustavo Nunez
One of the more interesting parts is the writeup on Kyle McPherson, who BP characterizes as having a very good fastball ("fantastic," actually) but a weak breaking ball and only an average changeup. That's not the way evaluations of McPherson typically go.
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fascinating
Tony Sanchez took a huge tumble down to a 2 star rating. It was VERY encouraging to see that we had four (FOUR!) prospects rated as 5 star prospects. Marte and Grossman received 4 star marks. This has gotta be the most 5 star propsects we’ve had ever correct?
Most
definitely gotta be the most 5 stars, plus two 4 stars to boot is awesome.
I think the farm system really is on the way up.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, they must really like Josh Bell to have him ranked ahead of Starling Marte already.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
his power potential, as a switch hitter, were top notch pre-draft... best power hitter in the draft, including college, say some
by white angus on Dec 16, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Haha
Angus is ecstatic about that rating.
I, for one, have Marte ahead of Bell and Heredia at #3.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
why would i be ecstatic about that?
doesnt help my wallet in the least
by white angus on Dec 16, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
yep, but not because of that
i just saved alot of money on my car insurance by switchin to geico
by white angus on Dec 16, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Pretty decent list
Especially difficult to disagree with the top 10, though I’d move Sanchez up to 8. I still believe!
I will say Bryan Morris is too high and that Hanson and Nunez should be replaced on the list by Mercer and Cunningham.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Too
low on Cunningham and Kingham for my taste and too high on Cain and Morris.
Overall though, despite me disagreeing with individual prospect, I think it semi-adequately describes how good the farm system is and how well it has progressed.
2008
5 star – 1
4 star – 2
3 star – 4
2 star – 4
2009
5 star – 2
4 star – 1
3 star – 4
2 star – 4
2010
5 star – 2
4 star – 2
3 star – 6
2 star – 1
2011
5 star – 4
4 star – 2
3 star – 3
2 star – 2
We’ve obviously added elite, top end talent in their eyes. However, we actually have one less 3-star player or better compared to last year (10 in 2011 compared to 9 in 2012). That surprises me alot considering I think we are also much deeper this year compared to several years previous to this one.
Good to see none the less.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:52 PM EST reply actions
but whom are those 3 and 2 star players from 2008?
by white angus on Dec 16, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
Three-Star Prospects
4. Daniel Moskos, LHP
5. Brad Lincoln, RHP
6. Jamie Romak, OF
7. Duke Welker, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
8. Brian Bixler, SS
9. Brian Friday, SS
10. Shelby Ford, 2B
11. Andrew Walker, C
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
that is one ugly list
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
by C Shint on Dec 16, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ya
In response to David below, yes players need to have success at the ML level, but honestly just having vastly superior talent will create superior major league talent after attrition takes place.
Our 6th best prospect was Jamie Romak as opposed to Robbie Grossman this year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
The reality though...
is as good as he has been over the past year, we don’t know that Robbie Grossman isn’t going to be a Jamie Romak.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Correct
but I don’t think anyone would have considered Jamie Romak a fringe top 100 prospect at the time. Admittedly, I’m unsure of that, but I’d take a stab in the dark and say he might have been fringe top 300
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
thankfully, their BB/K ratios seem to be going in different directions
Romak really flamed out at AA in 2009, and has yet to appear in AAA.
meanwhile, Grossman appears to have better peripherals, but you’re right he still has much to prove
so, comparing 2008 with 2011
Five-star (4)
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Luis Heredia
4. Josh Bell
Four-star (2)
5. Starling Marte
6. Robbie Grossman
Three-star: (3)
7. Stetson Allie
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Colton Cain
Two-star: (2)
10. Tony Sanchez
11. Bryan Morris
IMO, that’s quite a remarkable turnaround
They were probably going to put Cunningham on the list
but they heard that he hurt himself baking Christmas cookies.
Important to remember....
Most of the top rated guys are at least two years (or more) from the majors. Only two of the guys on the list even have a shot at appearing in Sept and that isn’t even a certainty. Lots of potential, but just look at where Sanchez, Locke, Owens and Wilson are on this year’s list vs. last year’s. We certainly aren’t debating whether Sanchez is going to be on anybody’s Top 100 list anymore.
Having watched Locke I see his ceiling now as maybe a #3 and I don’t he becomes that. Wilson is probably finished as a starter and Owens is a huge question mark. This management team still has to prove that it can develop players.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
The point is....
many have. The Huntington regime has yet to do it. Largely a function of time, but let’s see it happen.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Not a knock...
But it seems you’ve become increasingly cynical since the season ended. I’m not talking about this post in particular, just in general on here and on twitter.
Not that it matters, just an observation though.
by psudynasty1017 on Dec 16, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
I've said this before
but I think you can at least argue that Tony Sanchez is still a Top-100 prospect. For the record, I don’t think he is but I could understand the case. For one thing, his defense was good this year by almost all accounts. His B:KK rate suggests that his approach wasn’t that bad. It’s plausible that his drop in power could be explained by his weight loss which is definitely correctable. He also plays a position where he can get by without being a great offensive player if he is a good defender.
I think the biggest case Sanchez has is that there are several examples of this type of thing happening before. In 2010, Dee Gordon was ranked as the #46 prospect in baseball after posting a .301/.362/.394 line as a shortstop in A ball in ‘09. Gordon followed that up with a .277/.332/.355 line in AA and his ranking JUMPED to #26. Sanchez was the #46 prospect this year coming off a .314/.416/.454 line as a catcher in A+ (he was a year older than Gordon but also playing a level up so it balances out). Clearly his numbers tanked (.241/.340/.314) but I don’t understand why this means that he has to drop at leas 55 spots when Gordon, under similar circumstances, jumped 20 spots.
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 16, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
This guy posting at minorleagueball has Sanchez at 90 for basically that reason; when I asked him about it, he said he expected Sanchez’s BABIP to come back up and that he would be a useful player if he was average as a hitter.
(I don’t think the poster is a Pirates fan, though his screen name is “gogotabata.”)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 16, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
"Most of the top rated guys are at least two years (or more) from the majors."
Quit trying to talk sense, dtodd.
There’s a Mark Merchant and a Chad Hermansen somewhere near the top of the list.
Since the Bucs are “all in” with building through the draft and int’l signings under NH/FC, it will be much more important to come back to this list in 2015 and see who’s made it, who’s flopped, and how many guys flamed out due to injury.
(It’s interesting to note that of the #4-11 guys on the 2008 list, Duke Welker may very well take a step forward to the majors this year, and, if the positive reports of last season continue this one and he stays healthy, he may show us more in the majors than anyone else on the list.)
パトリック
Owens has two great years
and then stunk at Triple-A last year – but then missed the 2nd half with an injury. I’m holding otu hope that the bad performance was injury related, and if healthy he can return to his 2009-10 form.
by Brian Cartwright on Dec 16, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
I would be inclined to agree, but...
I read a lot of BD readers predict this from Rudy before last season due to his lack of velocity. I’m certainly not giving up on him, but its not like his poor performance at AAA was so out of context that it should be chalked up entirely to injury.
I saw him in person 4 times in 2010
while pitching in Altoona. According to the stadium gun, he was consistently 91-92. If correct, that’s more than Maholm, and not so low that I would consider it a detriment. He had very good command of his pitches, moving around the strike zone. Impressed me with my eyes and not just his stat line.
by Brian Cartwright on Dec 19, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Also interesting
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/86 or later)
1. Andrew McCutchen, OF
2. Gerrit Cole, RHP
3. Jameson Taillon, RHP
4. Luis Heredia, RHP
5. Josh Bell, OF
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
7. Starling Marte, OF
8. Robbie Grossman, OF
9. Jose Tabata, OF
10. Stetson Allie, RHP
I'd drop Alvarez down to about #9 on the list and I have my doubts as to the inclusion of Tabata.
パトリック
We'll see this year.
We’ll see if Tabata can do much and stay on the field, instead of needing a bazillion weeks to recover from a quad strain that a necessitated a medevac from PNC Park. Tabata looks more and more to me like backup OF material, one that will lose the speed part of his game rapidly, and his production at the plate will be a disappointment too.
Grossman needs to take a big step in the minors this year at AA, and perhaps a bit at AAA. (But will he be healthy and hitting well after breaking a hamate bone?)
パトリック
After this year will be next year's rankings
as of now, Grossman just had his first good pro season at A+ at age 21. Tabata was hitting .300 in the majors at the same age.
Neither projects as more than average future power and their defense is probably similar in value. Tabata K’s less 3 levels up and also jumped his walks to an above average rate, negating Grossman’s main advantage.
I know your opinion is based mostly on the injuries and whatnot, but it’s almost like BP didn’t take their own rankings seriously when they say stuff like this.
"Tabata was hitting .300 in the majors at the same age."
If Tabata’s 23, then I’m the next President of the U.S.
A WVU loss in the Orange Bowl would make a good start to 2012.
I lijke Tabata but am afraid he may have peaked
regardless of injuries, he’s a corner OF with a good glove (up to +10) who can steal 20 some bases, but doesn’t display much power. Below avg wOBA for a corner, at best he’s looking like 1.5 to 2.0 WAR going forward. Average but unspectacular starter.
Grossman had his first solid season, his profile reminds me a lot of Nick Swisher. I think Grossman is capable of 20 HR power, 100 BB, 250-270 BA, avg at best defense in a corner. Different skill set than Tabata, but one that can be a useful major leaguer. Grossman may eventually squeeze guys like Presley and Tabata out. We could have LF Grossman CF McCutchen RF Bell
by Brian Cartwright on Dec 19, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
OK, then you have to fit in Marte
but maybe McCutchen will be traded for prospects by then
by Brian Cartwright on Dec 19, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
and if Grossman had played in the majors this year he wouldn’t have displayed much power either. They have similar overall ceilings except one is in AA next year and one is in his 3rd season of the majors.
Swisher didn't become a MLB starter until age 25
and has a 254/366/406 career line. That’s the kind of skills I see Grossman having, and he might make it before 2015.
by Brian Cartwright on Dec 20, 2011 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
Question....
Does anybody know anything about the Pirate scouts?
Are they graded somehow?
Do they fight for one of their finds or just write up a report and rec?
Are they told to just scout certain types or positions and ignore the rest?
The Pirates have been drafting high so most of their top picks have been pretty much no-brainers but it seems like with the new CBA they may have to change their drafting strategy somewhat. Does that mean that the scouts will have to be more accountable?
Hope these are not dumb questions but I never see anything written about the scouting dept. except the people who run it and not anything about the grunts.thanks
by oldfrothingslosh on Dec 16, 2011 2:36 PM EST reply actions
Those are actually great questions.
I’ve always wondered myself if the Pirates shouldn’t be trying to poach scouts with good track records from other orgs. There has to be a latter day Howie Haak out there somewhere – right?
"Don Mossi was the complete five-tool ugly player. He could run ugly, hit ugly, throw ugly, field ugly and ugly for power.
when
when does it turn around, the 2008 2009 drafts are looking more like bust, and this year top 4 have a grand total of 1.5 yrs of low a ball games under thier belt.how do we know if any of these 5 star uber- prospects can play. NH has no track record of developing players but does a large track record of wasting money.
"please buy the team mr. cuban"
hmm
2008 has produced D’Arnaud, Mercer, Wilson, Grossman, and Pedro, all of whom can’t be considered busts yet. In fact, that’s a pretty good result from one draft. 2009 still has Tony Sanchez who is still breathing last time I checked, and ZVR, Colton Cain, and Zach Dodson are farm from busts at this point.
Then Taillon, Cole, Heredia, and Bell. Nothing wrong with that as the top 4 guys coming into the system the last 2 years. Check back in 3 years to see if you are right. You may well be, but you aren’t right yet in my opinion.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
far
from busts*** not farm, heh.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
dont bother explaining that stuff
he doesnt understand that the average time a player spends in the minor leagues is 5 years. all of them have to be in the majors NOW… now gawdammit now!!!
And above average players will spend less than 5 years in the minors. We obviously don’t have too many above average players from the 2008 draft, as next season will be year 5.
not for everyone
Guys like Robbie Grossman and Wes Freeman signed late enough that they basically didn’t play in 2008, so 2012 will be their fourth year in the minors. Pedro Whatsisface, too. Pedro and d’Arnaud have reached the majors (but they haven’t performed as we’d like!), and Mercer, Hague, and Wilson are close.
Anyway, I don’t think we say that, just because the average length of time in the minors is 5 years, that players who spend more time in the minors are below average. I’d rather have Grossman or even Cunningham than Hague even if Hague might reach the majors more quickly.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 18, 2011 9:25 AM EST up reply actions
Farm for Busts
Sounds like a great title for a Littlefield movie huh?
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
by Cheap Beer on Dec 16, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
how about
having your top 4 ready to step in and help a 90 loss team, same stuff different names . the results are the results.
"please buy the team mr. cuban"
How are any of the top 4 in any way, shape or form ready to help the major league team?
Outside of maybe a September callup for Cole or Taillon, which would be dumb because it starts their Super 2 clock.
I had more to say here, but I just noticed your signature and it’s pretty clear that facts will have zero effect on you.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
But you are assuming the results
If Pedro rebounds even to the tune of a 20-HR, .252/.332/.429 season like Bill James predicts, and Taillon and Cole dominate the minors this year, and guys like Tabata and Presley stay healthy and Sanchez is catching in Pittsburgh by July, then those will be the results and those results would be pretty good. You are assuming that none of the players on this list will help the Pirates now (or in the future) and that is flawed logic.
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 16, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
"how do we know if any of these 5 star uber- prospects can play"
Time.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Since the top 4
all joined the organization since 2010, how exactly would you suggest they get more experience?
Not to get into a big, long debate over a topic that has been thoroughly beaten into the ground but…ok, I just saw other people respond to this, so just see above.
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 16, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Well, NH could send the rest of the ballclub (and the league I suppose) on a trip at relativistic speeds, and then a return trip also at relativistic speeds, causing time to pass more slowly in the rest of the league while the top 4 stay behind and get extra practice.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 16, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting thought
It’s kinda like in Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey when they had to spend 18 months learning how to play their instruments and only had a few seconds to do it. In your scenario, is Clint Hurdle playing the role of George Carlin?
On a side note, since the Wyld Stallyns music was actually played by KISS and KISS music does exist in the real world, how come we don’t live in a futuristic world that worships the band? Oh well. Be excellent to each other!
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 16, 2011 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
how come we don’t live in a futuristic world that worships the band?<?i>
Wait, we don’t?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 16, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think that the scouting report on mcpherson is from last year...
and he got better this year
Jim Callis article "Best Of The Rest: The 2012 NL Just-Missed Team"
Best Of The Rest: The 2012 NL Just-Missed Team
Insider piece
He lists 11 more NL players that he likes (I dub the 11th man), and Dickerson makes the cut. I suppose BA has Dickerson 11 on their list??
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Oh I love their intro too...
Every year, there will inevitably be some quality prospects from deep organizations who don’t make our Top 10 lists. Jim Callis broke down the best of the rest from the National League, including a couple more bats for the Padres.
Look everybody the Pirates are a “deep organization”!!
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Also worth a look, if you like weird stat lines:
Santo Manzanillo‘s first year in rookie ball. It’s remarkable that he was able to come back from a Jason Neighborgall-esque debut and work his way into actual prospect-dom.
Wow
Neighborgall’s numbers were really awful. It’s hard to believe that the Diamondbacks kept running him out there when he’s walking 3 guys every inning. Steve Dalkowski had control problems like that in the late 50’s and was given a pretty long leash but he allegedly threw 115 mph so…
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 16, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
I think BP has gone downhill. But maybe because that’s because I took two years off in reading in regularly.
Robbie Grossman
Does anyone see him as a future Pirate? I haven’t read anything from NH et al concerning him directly, but everyone here has sold him as a piece in some trade or another… are they considering him to ever be a Pirate? Or do most of us assume Cutch-Tabata-Presley with a shot for Marte or Bell?
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