Ten Trades (trades 3-4)
by buccobat on Dec 17, 2011 12:26 AM EST
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I decided to make a ten trade proposals and will give my opinions on if and why I would accept them if I ran both teams. Here’s 3-4. Link to 1-2: http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/12/3/2587947/ten-potential-trades-trades-1-2
3. Pirates get: Destin Hood, Josh Smoker. Nationals get Alex Presley
Analysis: The Pirates net two talented prospects in this trade proposal and give up the overachieving Alex Presley. I’m saying that as an insult to Presley, I believe he will have an overachieving career, but because he has so much team control left and is coming off a very good season we should look into trading him. His value is high right now and he does not really play a position of need for the pirates, so he is a good player to trade. We would receive two high upside prospects in return. Destin Hood was a football and baseball star in high school. He passed up football scholarships to sign with the Nationals. He has put up solid numbers and has excellent raw power that he is starting to show off in games. He is likely to start next season in AA and is still just 21. We would also receive josh Smoker, a talented lefty who was moved to the pen this season. He will likely start next season in AA also. He had a lot of strikeouts and a lot walks this past season and was 23 in High-A ball, but is a former first round pick and has very good stuff. He was not drafted in this year’s rule V draft likely because of the fact he would have to jump 2 levels and likely not stick. If I were the pirates I would do this because we have an abundance of speedy and we can trade one of them when his value’s high. I would also do this if ran the Nationals, for they need a centerfielder badly. They would give up none of their top 5 or 7 prospects. Presley would play average D in center (above average range, below average arm with solid instincts and decision making).
Conclusion: The pirates get a pair of high upside prospects and give up a scrappy outfielder with many years of control left. There is definitely a risk that Presley continues or improves production than last season for the next 6 years but it is a risk worth taking.
4. Pirates get: Dominic Brown. Phillies get choice of… Offer 1: Jameson Tallion and Duke Welker. Offer 2: Stenson Allie and Robbie Grossman. Offer 3: Kyle Mcpherson and Robbie Grossman. Offer 4: Dan Grovatt.
Analysis: The Pirates would make a blockbuster trade for the super talented Dominic Brown. He was ranked the forth best prospect by BA going into the season, but struggled. He obviously has the skill but it seems the Phillies are not planning around him, for the recently signed Lance Nix to a two year deal. He joins a logjam in leftfield that includes Brown and Ben Francisco. This means Brown may be available for a discount. He is 6’5 and could easily hit 25-30+ homers when he matures and fills out. He has true 5 tool potential and would not be had cheap. I would expect the Phillies would accept offer 1, but 2 and 3 are also very reasonable. I threw in offer 4 just in case they felt bad for the pirates after the new CBA stopped the Bucs from “disrupting the competitive balance.” I would accept this trade if I ran the pirates because it would fill the void in left that was left by my proposed Presley with a much more talented player with much power. I would expect Brown to play right and Tabata to play left. If I ran the Phillies I would accept offer one because Tallion has potential to start in a rotation even that of the Phillies and Welker has enough potential to be an effective reliever for them.
Conclusion: This would be a huge trade if it went through. It would get the pirates a potential star for a potential ace. I would only do this trade if we traded Presley (or Cutch or Tabata at that. I would much rather trade Presley, though.) The Phillies need a top pitching prospect to replenish their farm system and give them another potential ace when their current aces leave hit free agency.
Also, I plan to write several posts over the next couple weeks. I’m on Christmas break from eighth grade and have been busy with school, sports, friends, girls, parties and all that stuff. BD hasn’t really been first on my list. Maybe I need to get my priorities straight but I kinda like ‘em how they are:)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Eh
both are solid value for value trades except for giving up Taillon for Brown. I wouldn’t really give up Taillon for anyone unless it was severely in our favor.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 17, 2011 1:45 AM EST reply actions
I consider brown more valuable than tallion
He’s MLB ready and a hitter which are more valuable than pitchers
by buccobat on Dec 17, 2011 7:49 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think there values are simaler,
I think Brown has a litte more value, but the Philles have a logjam in left and Brown might be availible for a slight discount aafter a rough year
i hear what youre saying
but you are also saying that hitters are more valuable, so we have to hope the phillies think otherwise?
A
year ago I’d agree but I’m unsure about Brown now.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 17, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
I would rather have Taillon than Brown 1 for 1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Dec 17, 2011 7:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
fair enough,
I was just trying to match their value up and brown’s season was not disasteraus. Therefore if he were still a prospect he’d probably be around 15 best prospect making him ranked lower than Tallion but more valuable because he is a hitter. That is what I wrote this on.
Taillon is better than Brown.
The Pirates FO prefers Taillon to Bryce Harper. Whether you agree with that or not, we can all agree Harper >> Brown. So I don’t think they’d give up Taillon. I really hope Taillon is extremely off-limits.
by my dixie wrecked on Dec 17, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
I didnt look at it that way,
you’re probaly right.
Hmm
Just wondering how you are coming to the conclusion that “hitters are more valuable than pitchers”?
Aren't hitting prospects considered more valuable
For example a top ten hitting prospect is worth a little more than a top ten pitching prospect.
As
well positional players have more impact over the course of a season than a starting pitcher by default. You can tell by positional players producing significantly more WAR
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 17, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
It's true.
Top hitters get more $ in FA than top pitchers do, both in total value and on an annual basis.
No way am I giving up Grovatt for Brown 1 for 1
The Phillies need to throw in at least Roy Halladay too if I’m making that deal
Besides, the Phils would at least demand Tim Wood in a deal for Brown.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Dec 17, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
You can't expect to rip teams off.
you have to be willing to make fair trades or nothing will get done
Brown is basically a prospect
he has high upside and 6 years of control left. It is much different than trading for a filler
He's been respectable.
He was also coming back from a broken hamate bone, which tends to hold down your offense for about a year after the injury.
He was pretty bad, but not terrible.
Remember he was the fourth best prospect before the season.
Taillon hasn't done anything to negate his value...
..but I highly doubt the Pirates still honestly prefer Taillon to Harper.
Ben Francisco got traded to Toronto
Evaluators and just plain smarter people than me love Brown, but I’ve just never seen it. If the baseball people say it’s a go, I’m for using assets to acquire other assets; what’s the point in stockpiling all these young power arms if some of them don’t become currency to buy other talent? Even my buddy, a disgusting Red Sox fan who knows nothing Jerry Remy or the Sons of Sam Horn didn’t tell him said to me today “The Pirates have a bunch of good power pitchers: Cole, Allie, and that guy with the weird name (Taillon).”
As I see it...
The main goal for the Pirate F.O. is to acquire and assemble one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, the only way for the Pirates to acquire #1 aces is through the draft, they can’t trade for a Halliday and if they did they couldn’t afford to pay him.
To start trading those pitchers even for a quality position player just sets them back from their main goal.
Look what they did last year mainly on the strength of their pitching and when that pitching collapsed look what happened.
Even if a position player is more valuable on paper than a pitcher a top pitcher in the Pirate world will always be more valuable.
Now just to make it clear I am not talking about all pitchers just guys like Taillon etc.
by oldfrothingslosh on Dec 18, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions
As a Nationals fan, I don't think trade 3 would go anywhere.
I don’t think it is unbalanced trade, but I don’t think the Nationals have any interest in Alex Presley. Contrary to your assertions that Presley "would play average D in center (above average range, below average arm with solid instincts and decision making). In the 483 innings that Presley has played in the OF at the major league level, he has racked up below average arm, range, and uzr. While the sample size is too small to truly be significant, it does not seem to indicate that he can handle CF.
Presley’s offense was great for the 231 PAs he had in 2011, but otherwise, he is basically a slightly upgraded Roger Bernadina, who has shown streaks of talent, but never able to hold it together long enough at the major league level. Given that Presley seems to be over-performing based on his minor league numbers (his ISO went up in the majors) he doesn’t seem to justify trading anything that would be fair for him.
I think the Nationals would be interested in several other OFs. I’m assuming that you wouldn’t trade Tabata or McCutchen because they are both great. However, I think that we should be interested in Gorkys Hernandez or Starling Marte. Obviously Marte is worth much more than Hernandez, but Hernandez might suit the Nationals needs quite well. What sort of package would it take to get either of those guys?
To be honest
Marte would probably be expensive (at least in the minds of many on this site). Since most who post here are well aware of what Marte brings to the table, I’ll make it brief. He has an absolute rifle for an arm, is good enough defensively that some think he’d unseat Cutch in CF, runs well, hits .300 every year and showed much improved pop this year. Some worry about his BB rate, others do not (that’s where a personal preference would come in to play). Without looking too much into the Nats’ system, I’d start by asking for Norris and Marrero. Norris’ prospect status is going to take a hit after his .210 season and Marrero continues to be solid without really being special.
Hernandez would be more affordable. His defense is really pretty special (the best defensive outfielder in the organization) but he doesn’t seem like he’d be anything more than a passable hitter. Also, given that he is probably considered no better than the 7th best OF asset (not prospect) in the organization, he could definitely be had.
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 18, 2011 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
I would expect Marte to be expensive.
One thing I would note about Norris’ .210 season was his OPS was .813. His batting average was down due mostly to walking a ton (18.2%) with the relatively wild pitchers in AA (who are mostly working on control). Norris has always walked a bunch, in 2008 over 302 PAs, he walked more than he struck out (20.9 v. 18.5%). However, this means that his BA has a smaller sample size since walks don’t count. As a result, bad luck (.251 BABIP) can have a greater impact.
That being said, I think both sides might not be comfortable on a Marte for Norris trade. I could be wrong, but I am guessing that the fans at Federal Baseball would want more than Marte for Norris. Maybe they would go straight up, but doubt that many would offer Marrero as well. I would be ok with Marte for Norris and Marrero though.
20.9% v. 18.5%
That’s a lot of balls not being hit. I’m always leery of Three True Outcomes guys.
I’m not very familiar with Washington’s system: what do you think the cost of Hernandez would be in terms of prospects? It seems to me that the Nationals could get Hernandez pretty cheaply and make that a pretty shrewd personnel move.
Norris has posted wRC+ of 129 even with a .210 avg. and has never had an OPS of below 800
So, he has plenty of power to back up his eye.
I don’t think Hernandez would draw much in terms of top talent. Unfortunately, the Pirates and Nationals are both fairly stacked with arms. I think the trade would be one of need rather than want. If we are lucky, then Hernandez will be Austin Jackson-lite. However, if he hits like its 2010, then he’ll be a total bust. I think Marrero might be too much, because while he profiles a similiar WAR to Hernandez, the worst case scenario for him is as a bench bat singles hitter. Maybe you guys would throw-in a bull-pen prospect? We could also offer Adam LaRoche and $4million. I see no reason why you would want him, but the offer is there.
I don't disagree
that Norris’ production in the minors has been solid, especially considering that he is a catcher. My concern, rather, is that because of he has shown a high K-rate combined with a low batting average two consecutive seasons, I would have substantial concerns that he would flame out altogether. He has value, but I see him as a high-risk prospect. Marrero is just not overly impressive to me, to be honest. I could see the Pirates having some level of interest in him because they have a hole at 1B but I’m not sure he is a substantially better prospect than Matt Hague. Hague is obviously older, which is why I’d rather have Marrero but I’m not sure their upsides are all that different.
I agree Gorkys wouldn’t attract a top-prospect as a return and the deal would probably be nothing more than swapping blocked players (potentially).
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 19, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Hague will be 27 next year
His numbers are similar but he’s never really been an age appropriate prospect, which seems odd. He’s been doing well, but never had the mid-season move that he needs to get serious consideration.
I think we are on the same page with Gorkys. Unfortunately, outside of Marrero and Lombardozzi, I don’t think we really have many guys chilling at AAA right now. I suppose we could offer a marginal kind of prospect for a position you guys are looking to fill some point later like Jason Martinson. He’s a 22 year old in A ball, he should move up next year after positing .818 OPS, as a SS. If he makes it he’ll, probably be at best a role player like Henandez. Or maybe Jhonatan Solano if you are looking for a back-up catcher.
I think
Hernandez makes alot of sense to the Nats.
Check this out to get my take on him.
He only needs to be below-average with the bat, even for a CF, to be a useful starting CF and I believe he can do that. Solid year last year and his ARL was just fine.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 19, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
Though offense is a fairly large concern for the Nationals since we ranked in the bottom third of MLB in most offensive stats. Some of that was missing Ryan Zimmerman for 60 games, Jayson Werth shedding about .200 OPS from last year, and Adam LaRoche being injured/putting up terrible numbers. Our bench production was also awful. All this to say, for Hernandez to be useful we would need an OBP of something like .330, which is possible, but not pretty far from a lock.
Hernandez + filler for Flores + interesting arm from A ball. How much will Flores make in arb? We might want some cash instead/as well as the arm
No.
Flores will probably make about $1million, but I don’t see the Nationals trading him. There is too much upside there. If you look at his pre-injury 2009 numbers, and his 2011 VWL numbers, you would see that Flores has a potentially huge upside. He has not really had much playing time while not recovering from injury. For the Nationals to trade Flores now, they almost certainly will lose, because no team is going to value him as more than a below average back-up. Besides there is a decent chance that even healthy Hernandez will hit like Flores did in 2011.
It’s odd that 230 ABs of Presley is overachieving but 100 PAs by Flores 2 years ago shows his true upside.
Flores hasn’t hit over a decent sample since he was 21 (6 years ago) and that came with huge red flags on BB and K numbers.
Both have a chance to be average starters at their position and both are blocked in the present and the future in their organizations.
A couple things
First, Presley has plenty of sample size to say that he should not be doing as well as he was. Flores does not.
Second, Flores was the back up in 2008 and had a OPS of about 700, which is pretty good for a catcher. But yes, he has been injured or recovering for the last 3 years. Furthermore, I was saying that the Nationals should be hesitant to trade Flores. He seems to be doing very well in VWL right now with an OPS of .938, obviously this is not major league ball but closer to AA. Still, we shouldn’t do anything with Flores until we see if his power comes back.
Third, catchers are harder to come by than corner OFs.
Presley has hit for the last 2 years at the highest levels. He also only has 2 years at A+ where he didn’t hit much though wasn’t terrible.
Flores has 1 year where he was a good hitter and about a season’s worth of PA at a fine rate (though in the majors) but he basically hasn’t been right in 3 years.
The Nats need a CF this year way more than they need a backup C and Flores is not going to get enough ABs behind Ramos to prove himself or to raise his trade value very much.
All the players being discussed would play CF for the Nationals.
I think that we are just going to have to disagree here.
For the record, I am not saying that Flores is better than Presley. To make such an argument would be stupid. I am saying that I believe there is a good chance that Flores will be worth more than Presley.
Finally, the Nationals while I believe that all of the players being discussed could play CF for the Nationals, the question is do they truly solve our problem? For the first time in our short history, most of our starting nine are already established. While this is good, it means that we have limited options for continuing to upgrade the team. Centerfield is our best chance to upgrade our terrible offense with a high-OBP player, who could bat lead off, without being a major downgrade defensively.
I’m really surprised by how quiet they’ve been. I guess there is still Gio or Oswalt but I expected them to have found a CF, at least, by now
Me too
maybe they are holding out to make a push for Cespedes…
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 20, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it has been a madding offseason.
I’m glad that we didn’t land any of the big fish that we were continually linked to during the season, Wilson, Fielder, Reyes etc. Because I think our best chance at winning a World Series is to remain flexible enough to cover our young core all the way through arbitration. Obviously, we could trade some as prospects mature to fill gaps or restock the farm as our draft position hopefully declines because we actually post a winning season.
But Buerhle and Aoki hurt as a fan. I’m still holding out hope that there will be a late Christmas present this year, but at this point I would settle for signing a better set of bench bats than Mark DeRosa and Greg Dobbs.
Presley
Then again, Nats fans think Werth, Harper, Ankiel and Bernadina could all play solid CF. Presley would be better than all 4, probably most similar to Bernie, but yes, still poor overall imo.
I don't know many fans that want any of those folks in center
But I am not convinced that Presley would play better than any of them. Ankiel put up great defense this year (only way to put up 1.4 WAR in 120 games with an OPS .660). Werth slugged .500 three seasons precedeeding 2011, which is why Bill James projects him to add about 100 points to his OPS in 2012. Also, Werth played plus defense in right, whereas fangraphs reports negatives for both years of Presley (for whatever such a small sample size of a voalitile statstic is worth.)
better defensively I meant, clearly harper and Werth are way better bets going forward. Ankiel also derived his entire value from his arm, where the rest of his history makes that look pretty fluky
Even defensively, Presley put up negative numbers in RF.
Ankiel and Werth put up positive numbers in CF.
This
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Yep
it’s not just a small sample size, it’s virtually useless.
All scouting reports point to Presley being able to handle CF somewhat and being above-average or better in a corner.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 20, 2011 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, I realize the sample size is essentially useless for Presley (see comment above)
However, the sample sizes for Werth in RF and Ankiel in CF were significant, and the indicated they are plus fielders.
Look, it is fine for you guys to value Presley more than I do; he plays on your team. But I haven’t seen any reason that the Nationals would want him other than sheer desperation, or to keep Cameron out of the OF. Neither of which are good reasons to trade.
I agree
I think Gorkys makes more sense to the Nats either way. Not sure what’d I ask for in return. Looking at the freshly released top 20, maybe…
Robbie Ray? That might be a bit too much.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 20, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think it is too high
I haven’t taken much of a look at their prospects to see who would be a good fit, but you have to remember Gorkys has almost no bat right now
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Ray is probably too much.
Here is sickel’s list for us:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/20/2650433/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2012
Maybe Dave Frietas?
Thanks!
I was definitely too lazy at that moment to go find it.
Rick Hague is a guy who intrigues me. Great player at Rice, injury issues have pushed him down, but he’s someone I’d consider giving up Gorkys for. Or maybe Michael Taylor, but the K’s are an obvious concern
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
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