Scoring More Runs

by zogger on Dec 2, 2011 8:41 PM EST

One of key challenges for the Bucs in 2012 is to score more runs. They were 27th in MLB in 2010.

In looking at the 2010 stats, they wiffed in 22% of their PAs. This tied them with the Nats and Padres for last in MLB. So what if they could reduce their KOs; what would be the effect?

I created a new metric call Batting Average Make Contact (BAMC). This is Hits/(AB-SO). It takes into account HR which BABIP does not.

What was the Bucs BAMC? It was .322 which was 15th in MLB. So when they made contact, they did about average.

The league Average SO per PAs was 19%. So what if the Bucs reduced their KOs to 19%?

This means they would have put an additonal ~182 balls in play which would have resulted in ~59 more hits. The Bucs Runs/Hits was .46, so these 59 more hits would have resulted in 27 more runs. This would have made them close to the Braves run total of 641; roughly 22nd in MLB.

So my conclusion? While cutting down the KOs is not a total solution to scoring more runs, it has the potential to increase the Bucs scoring. When they make contact, their BAMC is average, but they just don't put the ball in play enough!

After they stop KOing, they need to hit more HRs. Only 8.1% of their hits left the park, making them 26th in MLB. League average was ~11%. If an additional 3% of their new hit total were HRs, their HR total would go from 107 to 152. This would place them roughly middle of MLB.. Pedro alone could add 20 of these HRs.

If you look at teams whose BAMC is close to the Bucs, whose wiffs is ~18%, and whose HR/H was 11%, the Angles are close. They scored 57 more runs than the Bucs and were 15th in MLB in Runs scored. Would you take the Angels offense for the Bucs in 2012?

BTW, the World Chapion Cardinals BAMC was .332, wiffs were 16%, HR/H was 10.7%, and they scored the most runs in the NL and 5th overall in MLB.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

So, the simple answer is...

Pedro must K less and hit more HRs. Solved!

by MarkInDallas on Dec 3, 2011 4:56 AM EST reply actions

i think youre actually spot on

25 hrs from pedro may have moved us up a notch in the standings

by white angus on Dec 3, 2011 7:17 AM EST up reply actions

yepper

by karreemofwheat on Dec 3, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

I applaud the initiative, but I see a few issues...

First of all, reducing K’s doesn’t happen in isolation…you can’t just take what a player does when not striking out and presume that it will continue that way if he were to cut down his strikeouts. For instance, a player might reduce his strikeouts by altering his approach to produce more singles but fewer home runs. Whether the net effect is positive is complicated.

Secondly, you allow for walks in the denominator, but there is no way for a walk to have a positive contribution in your formula. You probably either want to remove walks from the denominator or account for them positively in the numerator.

Moreover, presumably the real thing you are interested in here is how well the player contributes offensively on contact. Such a metric already exists and it has perhaps either the best or the worst name in sabermetrics: wOBAcon (short for weighted on-base average on contact). Instead of giving a home run the same value as a single, it assigns the four types of hits the proper run values (so a home run gets about 1.95 times the value of a single, etc).

Sabermetrica

by mickeyg13 on Dec 5, 2011 11:35 PM EST reply actions