Bucs Dugout Community Prospect #3
by epoc on Dec 23, 2011 6:07 PM EST
Email
PrintProspect #2 was Taillon in a runaway (near-unanimous vote), so I closed that poll after a few people suggested we should move on. We probably won't see another vote that one-sided, but if anything similar happens in the future and I don't seem to be around, anyone else can go ahead and start the next poll.
Our list so far:
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
The #3 spot is where it starts to get interesting. I'll leave this one up until Monday evening, so no one misses it over the holiday. I'm adding Stetson Allie, Tony Sanchez, and Kyle McPherson to the poll. As always, if you want to vote for someone who isn't listed, add his name and a +1 under "others."
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
94 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
not in top 5
1. Cole
2. Taillon
3. Bell
4. Heredia
5. Marte
I think you want to comment farther down
If you want to vote for a player, add a +1 after their name. If you want to talk about them, that goes under the “discussion” tab.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 25, 2011 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
+1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Dec 23, 2011 6:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Dec 23, 2011 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Prospect???
Tony Sanchez has shown nothing in his 4 years from rookie to AA. I will walk again if he becomes the Pirates “franchise” catcher.
4 years?
He’s played 2.5 years, and half the time he’s been injured (which is a problem in itself).
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
For the other reasons already stated
everything about your comment is flat out wrong.
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 25, 2011 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Uh
personally yes on Kingham, no on Cain.
Dickerson and Cunningham as well in my opinion.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
basically
what was dicussed in prospect 2 post…Marte so much closer to majors even tho I absolutely LOVE Josh Bell.
the case for Josh Bell
I voted for Marte, but I think he and Bell are extremely close and I’m surprised Bell’s not getting more love in the early going here. Let me play devil’s advocate for a second and make the case for Bell.
Bell and Marte both have tremendous upside. Bell could be a classic corner outfield slugger, while Marte could be a five-tool CF. But one big difference between them is that Bell has the type of approach that will allow him to make the most of his tools, while Marte does not. Marte has very poor plate discipline. That’s not just a matter of not taking a lot of walks and striking out too much. Both of those things are bad, but it goes farther than that. If you swing too much, pitchers have no reason to give you a good pitch to hit. And major league pitchers will exploit that. Consider Josh Harrison, who is a good pure hitter but who doesn’t control the strike zone. He was able to hit .300 in AA and AAA, but his batting line collapsed when he got to the majors and started facing good, experienced pitchers who could exploit his impatient approach. Marte is more talented than Harrison, but he also makes contact far, far less. He could be looking at a total collapse as he starts facing better hitters.
Although Marte is closer to the bigs, I don’t think he’s more likely to succeed than Bell. Controlling the strike zone is too important, and Marte is too poor at it. Besides which, he doesn’t have the power to really make pitchers pay if they make a mistake, which is going to further suppress his BA and OBP. I have trouble believing Marte is ever going to reach his true upside with such a poor approach. I see him as something like a .290/.330/.420 hitter in the bigs. Combined with his defensive value, he’d be a very good player. But Bell has the potential to hit .300/.400/.500, and unlike Marte he has an approach mature enough to let him reach that upside.
Obviously, Bell isn’t a lock to be a superstar, but I think he has a better chance than Marte to be a star player.
by epoc on Dec 23, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep
Big question is whether Marte can draw at least a decent number of walks because I do not think he can maintain a BABIP around .400 in MLB like he’s done in the minors.
I strongly
disagree about Marte’s plate discipline. He cut his K rate significantly last year, from 23.3 to 17.5%. Last year, in the majors the average K rate was 20.7%.
I saw him in person quite a few times, albeit down at Low-A WV. Marte came across as a guy who can lay off pitches if he needs to, but he’s just so talented he can hit almost anything. The numbers bear that out.
This article (Insider, which I don’t have at the moment; will on Christmas day) talks about how Cano has a similar profile, and over time he’s improved his BB rate to an acceptable rate. He just swung at everything as a young player because he had such an elite hit tool.
Overall I’ll take the guy who came off an excellent season in AA over an OF who hasn’t seen a pro pitch and a pitcher who hasn’t pitched a pitch above the GCL level.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 23, 2011 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I strongly agree with you...
Marte is no Josh Harrison. Despite how his stats read, he is not a free swinger and does not go up there hacking, as anyone who has seen him play will tell you. He falls behind in counts because he takes pitches looking for something he can drive. And .332 and 58 extra base hits, playing in a pitcher’s park in a terrible league for offense, says that he can hurt you. I saw him hit a home run in Reading that probably hasn’t landed yet, when a good pitcher tried to get him out with the same pitch in consecutive at bats.
I was a late convert to Marte; I didn’t like him on paper, for the reasons others have mentioned. But this is one player that you have to see. His approach at the plate is much better than it appears, and when he makes weak contact in a pitcher’s count he still has his speed to rely on.
And he is a terrific CF with a great arm.
www.drstrangeglove.com
I’ve seen him play. I’m guessing that KLaw, Goldstein, and the boys at BA (or at least their sources) have also seen him play. And all of us agree that he is indeed a free swinger and does indeed go up there hacking.
I’m not saying he’s not a good prospect, but the lack of strike zone control is a serious concern.
Al Skorupa
disagrees, and really likes Marte, so it’s not a consensus.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
does that matter?
Al Skorupa’s a pretty insightful, knowledgeable guy, but I don’t see how it matters that there’s not a consensus when there is an overwhelming majority. It seems pretty foolish to side with Al Skorupa and against KLaw, Goldstein, Baseball America, and the statistical evidence (mediocre K rate, terrible BB rate, unsustainable BAbip).
That’s if we’re talking about appeals of authority, though. I understand that you personally share Alskor’s opinion, and I respect that. I just don’t buy the appeal to authority when that authority’s opinion is both in the minority and not all that authoritative.
Er
okay. I have no other arguments then.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 3:27 AM EST up reply actions
If Marte is so talented that he can hit almost anything, then why does he strike out 17.5% of the time against AA pitchers? I don’t think that argument passes the sniff test, personally.
When I saw Marte in Bradenton in 2010, he couldn’t recognize offspeed stuff and swung at basically everything. He did not look good. He must have been better this year, otherwise he would not have had the success he had, but even this year, KLaw is still saying that he swings at everything; Goldstein is saying he gets himself out by swinging at bad pitches; and BA is saying he needs to improve his plate discipline. No one, other than Pirate fans, seems to be saying that his discipline is okay or that he’s so talented that he doesn’t need to be disciplined.
I think the Cano comp is pretty laughable. I don’t know how a younger Cano compared to Marte from a scouting perspective, but from a statistical perspective they aren’t similar at all. Cano was in the majors at age 22, and struck out in only 12.3% of his PA while hitting for a .161 ISO. At the same age, Marte was striking out 17.5% of the time in AA with a .168 ISO.
I am not making these claims for Marte...
If he is hoping to succeed by hitting every pitch that is thrown to him of course he will fail. That is what Josh Harrison does. What I said is that he is not the stereotypical free swinger who can’t recognize pitches. Every time I have seen him he has been very selective with what he swings at. He takes a lot of pitches.
My experience watching him play all took place this year. I can’t answer as to what he looked like a year and a half ago at Bradenton, or what the pundits have to say.
Perhaps he improved.
www.drstrangeglove.com
Why isn’t he drawing more walks if he’s being selective? Are pitchers for some reason throwing way more balls over the plate to him than to the other players in the league, despite him being one of the more dangerous hitters? And if he is being selective and the pitchers are throwing a lot of strikes, doesn’t it concern you that he’s striking out so often?
Again, this doesn’t pass the sniff test. A guy who is being selective doesn’t walk less than 4% of the time in AA. A guy who can hit anything doesn’t K 17% of the time in AA.
To answer your question..
www.drstrangeglove.com
by nycbucsfan on Dec 24, 2011 10:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Freaking phone...
To answer your question, I believe he is working on pitch recognition and plate discipline by taking more pitches, and often falls behind as a result.
Also, he is being selective as to whether or not he can hit a pitch hard, not whether or not a pitch is a strike.
To be clear, I am very concerned about the lack of walks, but he is by no means a finished product with no room for further development.
And if we both agree he is #3, maybe we should be focusing on the many positives
www.drstrangeglove.com
AGREE
Right now, I am happy with Presley’s approach. Walks+, Steals+, Bunts+, opposite field hitting+, Ks low+=major leaguer.
The
Cano comp is plate discipline only. Plus, it’s the same type of thing. I never said Marte is as good as Cano.
17.5% is 2.5% below league average. When you hit .315 with that K rate, I think it does pass the sniff test.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
17.5% is 2.5% below league average. When you hit .315 with that K rate, I think it does pass the sniff test.
If I understand you correctly, what you are arguing is that Marte has some special skill that does not allow him to make elite levels of contact or hit lots of homeruns but does allow him to collect elite numbers of base hits when he puts the ball in play. This flies in the face of everything we know about BAbip.
I don’t deny that Marte has, to some extent, a special “BAbip skill” or whatever. For instance, he’s very fast and a good bunter, which surely allows him to get more hits than players who don’t possess those skills. But it makes no sense that a player could lack the selectivity and bat control to avoid striking out but simultaneously possess the bat control to consistently hit .400 on balls in play.
What kind of K rates and BAbips do you think Marte is going to post in the majors?
Um
BABIP correlates to LD/GB/FB rates.
LD’s fall in most, followed by GB’s, followed by FB’s. If Marte makes consistent hard contact – line drives – his BABIP can legitimately be higher. Plus the speed and bunting you mentioned.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 3:27 AM EST up reply actions
And
this actually…
One might expect a higher contact rate to lead to a higher BABIP, but the opposite actually seems to be the case. This is likely caused by the correlation between strikeouts and power, since players who swing hard tend to either miss entirely or crush the ball for hits. If this theory is reflected in our data, it makes sense that we would expect a player with a lower contact rate to generate a higher predicted BABIP. This is consistent with Studeman’s follow-up work on BABIP.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 4:07 AM EST up reply actions
okay
But what does that have to do with Marte’s plate discipline? There’s also a high correlation between power, strikeouts, and walks, because players who hit lots of homers (generally speaking) are able to do so not just because they swing really hard but because they take lots of pitches looking for the one they can crush. You may have noticed that in the article you linked, in the paragraph just before the one you quoted, the authors note that a batter’s eye (defined as BB rate over K rate) and pitches per PA are two of the key parameters in their BAbip predictor.
Marte’s not the kind of guy they’re talking about in that paragraph there. They’re talking about guys who are selective at the plate and swing really hard when they get their pitch. Marte doesn’t have that kind of discipline.
And that’s essentially what I’m saying, right? Unless Marte improves his batter’s eye (plate discipline) he will get taken advantage of. Better pitchers will get him to swing at worse and worse pitches, which will result in even more strikeouts, even fewer walks, and much weaker contact (less power, lower BAbip). This happens to every hitter as he moves up the ladder, but Marte’s especially susceptible because his K rate is mediocre, his walk rate is terrible, and his BAbip is unsustainably high. He doesn’t have much margin for error.
(It’s almost 6 am and I have the feeling that I’m not making my point very coherently right now. I’m going to resist the urge to keep piling on nonsense.)
And that’s essentially what I’m saying, right? Unless Marte improves his batter’s eye (plate discipline) he will get taken advantage of. Better pitchers will get him to swing at worse and worse pitches, which will result in even more strikeouts, even fewer walks, and much weaker contact (less power, lower BAbip). This happens to every hitter as he moves up the ladder, but Marte’s especially susceptible because his K rate is mediocre, his walk rate is terrible, and his BAbip is unsustainably high. He doesn’t have much margin for error.
I agree. The point of Robinson Cano was that he was a similar player that was a free-swinger who didn’t “worry” about his plate discipline because he was so talented he could hit anything. As Cano went up in levels, and the talent of the competition he faced progressed closer to his level, he adjusted by “learning” plate discipline (I put “learning” in quotes because I think Cano always had the ability; it’s like playing NCAA football against my younger cousin, I could probably efficiently run an offense with passes and short throws, but I throw hail marys for fun and I end up with a poor completion percentage and some interceptions).
I think Marte is the same type of rare players. When I saw him, I didn’t see him flail at breaking balls or chase pitchers in the dirt. He just hit the crap out of anything remotely near the strikezone. His ridiculous BABIP supports that theory. In addition, so does his low K rate. People keep yelling poor plate discipline, but he only has one element of it; a low walk rate. If he strikes out at a 17.5% clip and walks at a 5% clip, he can still hit .280 with a realistic BABIP (although I think he can do better). I also see 15-20 HR power, with a ton of doubles. That’s a .280/.325/.450 or so. With plus-plus defense in center, that’s still a 4-5 WAR player. That’s also if he doesn’t “learn” to walk.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
I’m still not buying the Cano comp. Cano actually did (and does) hit everything. He has always made contact at an elite level, while Marte does not. Their discipline may be similar, but in general they are not similar players. Cano makes more contact and hits for more power, so he has much more room for error than Marte does. I think it’s quite likely that Marte will become more disciplined, but he’s starting from a baseline of 5:1 K:BB ratio, which is pretty scary.
I still don’t see how Marte’s BAbip supports the theory that Marte hits the crap out of everything near the strike zone. If he hit the crap out of anything near the strike zone, why does he strike out so much? It’s not a situation where he’s like a Vlad Guerrero or Howie Kendrick or Robbie Cano who swings a lot but still makes consistent contact and hits the ball really hard. He’s a guy who swings a lot, swings and misses a lot, but gets a lot of base hits when he does make contact (partly through hitting the ball hard, probably, but also because he hits a lot of grounders and runs really fast). I can believe in the Kendrick/Guerrero profile because those guys really do hit the crap out of anything near the strike zone. But Marte’s not that type of hitter – too much swing and miss in his game.
If he strikes out at a 17.5% clip and walks at a 5% clip, he can still hit .280 with a realistic BABIP (although I think he can do better).
To do this at the ML level, he will need to drastically improve his plate discipline. You are suggesting that he can maintain his current K rate and improve his BB rate while climbing from AA to the majors. That’s a very tall order. The best players can do that, but I don’t see how we can prima facie assume that Marte will end up as one of the better players in baseball. It’s very possible that he could improve his plate discipline quite a bit but still strike out 20% of the time and walk 4% of the time in the majors. The difference in talent level between MLB and AA really is quite significant.
Personally, I do think he’ll improve his plate discipline. He’s a smart player who’s still relatively inexperienced, and he’s already shown that he can make adjustments, as evidenced by how successfully he transitioned to AA. But he’s so overaggressive that I don’t think he’ll ever live up to his potential. I think .280/.320/.420 is a fairly reasonable expectation, and that would make him quite a good player, a borderline all-star, but I still think there’s a pretty good chance that he becomes a Carlos Gomez or Felix Pie or one of those guys whose plate discipline prevents them from being a good major leaguer despite their talent.
How's
“I have a gut feeling Marte is gonna be really good and I’m grasping at straws to back it up sabermetrically” sound?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 24, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
ZiPS minor league translations for Marte’s 2011 were .267/.301/.398.
Also, I went searching through some minor league archives to try to find some comps for Marte. I didn’t find any really good ones, since no one consistently hits .300 with such poor K:BB numbers, but I found a few decent ones: Franklin Gutierrez, Lastings Milledge, Anderson Hernandez, Wilson Betemit, Corey Hart, Eric Reed, Felix Pie, and Rondell White. None of them are perfect for various reasons, but collectively they hit roughly the same in A-AA as Marte has and at similar ages. The group had the same K rate (both per PA and per AB) and the same ISO; they also had below-average BB rates and excellent BAbips, though the BB rates are still higher than Marte’s and the BAbips are lower.
At any rate, it’s about the best comparison set you could find, I think. The good news is that all of those guys made it to the majors, and with the exception of Eric Reed they’ve all hung on for relatively significant careers. There are even a few stars in the mix – Hart and White. They’ve averaged a .243/.301/.370 line in the bigs so far. Marte will probably hit for more average (and thus more SLG) but walk less. The ZiPS MLE of .270/.300/.400 seems pretty decent as far as a mean outcome goes. That’s about -7 runs per 700 PA, which he could make up for with defense and baserunning, making him an average-ish overall player, second-divsion starter type. And having a Rondell White ceiling is pretty awesome.
Marte also
hits for better power than Harrison and has a more projectable frame. As Truth mentions, Marte’s reduced K rate suggests improved plate patience.
While I voted for Marte, I would ask anybody who is familiar with other systems what the biggest difference is between Bell and Bubba Starling. I remember reading reports before the draft that some people preferred Bell to Starling but much of that sentiment seems to have disappeared. Starling was an A- and Marte’s not topping that. What does Starling offer that Bell doesn’t? Is it just the athleticism of a college football player?
by KentuckyPirate on Dec 23, 2011 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Starling vs. Bell
Bubba is an elite athlete. Bell isn’t. Just using off-the-top-of-my-head FUTURE grades for both.
Starling
Arm – 55-60 – Solidly above-average
Glove – 60-65 – Plus or better range
Hit tool – 50-60 – .270-290 hitter
Power – 55-65 – Potential 30 hr hitter
Speed – 60-65 – 30-50 sb, xbh threat
Bell
Arm – 45-50 – Suited better for LF
Glove – 45-55 – Not a CF
Hit tool – 60-70 – .290-.320 hitter
Power – 55-65 – 30-35+ hr power
Speed – 45-55 – 15 sb; not a clogger
Bell is “safer” with the bat but Starling makes up that floor gap with his defensive ability. From there, Bubba’s ceiling beats out Bell’s ceiling as a plus CF vs. an above-average LF because of a near equal offensive ceiling.
My take
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 23, 2011 11:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Agreed
Defense and speed is the main difference between the two, with the nod in all 3 (arm included) of those categories going to Starling. I think Bell has a better pure hit tool and better power potential, although you graded them the same in their power tool.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Yes,
I think that’s it in a nut shell. Bell will have to move off of CF and he only has average speed.
www.drstrangeglove.com
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bucs Dugout
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
