Pirates have 3/8 of best young position players
by JRoth95 on Feb 11, 2011 5:29 PM EST
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PrintPer this Fangraphs analysis, looking exclusively at young guys making league minimum - the 0-3 group. Not only do Cutch, Walker, and Pedro all make it, but also:
Three(!) Pirates in the starting lineup, and Jose Tabata didn’t miss by much (neither didJames McDonald, on the pitching side). We’re approaching 20 years since Barry Bonds left and the Pirates last enjoyed an above-.500 season. That streak could end fairly soon.
It'll be interesting to see which happens first: the Pirates actually having some success, or people around baseball noticing the talent. In a way, 2011 is the pivotal year in that race between accomplishment and recognition: if they lose 95, then no one will say anything except, "Despite a few talented young players, the Same Old Pirates just clinched a record 19th losing season," and 2012 could catch everyone by surprise; OTOH, if they hang around .500 for a few months and end up in the 70s for wins, then everyone will start working the angle of "You know the Pirates have been bad, but look at Andrew McCutchen and his crew of young Bucs."
Any analogies to Pittsburgh's national (and international) reputation and its sea change since the G-20 will be left to the reader.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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“It’ll be interesting to see which happens first: the Pirates actually having some success, or people around baseball noticing the talent.”
You mean like Mccutchen being named best center fielder by mlb network, and several other mainstream articles with a similar tune?
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 11, 2011 6:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
That's one guy
And every article sets him as the exception to the Pirates-suck rule. My question was when it would become a truism that the Pirates have a lot of young talent and are ready to compete in the next 2 years. Fangraphs may have noticed, but that’s not saying much. My question is when other cities’ newspapers, when the Bucs come to town, will use terms like “young and talented” and “up and coming” rather than “pathetic” and “poorly-run” in their previews.
It will be a truism when it is a truism. For now, the Pirates are coming off a 105-loss season and they’re relying on a lot of unproven young talent and mediocre veterans. I hope Tabata, Walker, Alvarez and McDonald pick up where they left off last year, but all of them could sharply regress. If this group starts to play competitive baseball, then I’m sure the newspapers in other cities will describe them as up and coming. Of course, I don’t know why fans need validation from writers they don’t respect.
you have to look deeper than on the surface win-loss numbers
if you only talk about the team when the team is winning, that makes you bandwagon, and that includes writers.
It would be one thing if the Pirates lost 105 games and had a Royals-quality farm system. Regardless of what Coonelly thinks, they don’t have such a system. Rather than up-and-coming and on the verge of contention, I think it’s more accurate to say the situation is improving, but the young players the Pirates are counting on come with question marks.
Speaking of won-loss record, I think the Pirates will improve by 15 games this season. But such an improvement won’t lead me to call them up and coming unless it’s accompanied by good performances from the young core in the majors as well as the minor league system.
i, myself, keep track of 3 teams, the royals being one of them
their top prospects are indeed “top”, but overall depth of their system is not very deep. in fact, theirs a very big drop off once you get passed the colon’s and the bianchi’s of their system.
the pirates, however, have alot of quantity but lack the stud prospects the royals have such as myers, hosmer and duffy
by white angus on Feb 14, 2011 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree with this...
the Royals have been spending like the Bucs on the draft for five years. They have a ton over slot signings who could potentially break out just like we do. Only difference is the two year head start and the fact that a couple of their over slot guys have already busted out. The Royals have also been more active in the international market than the Pirates though the Bucs are getting better. The Royals have studs and talent.
the royals have the sexy top level talent. they have not pursued the lower draft rounds as much as the pirates.
they do have some nice talent not in their top 10 like clint robinson who won the texas league triple crown. and kila is a nice player. but i dont see the overall depth there… but when you have literally a dozen top prospects, maybe it doesnt really matter much.
They have the same "potential depth"...
the Pirates do. Our depth lies in several over slot signings that have not broken out yet (or even had respectable seasons yet). So do the Royals. The Bucs have spent a little more in the draft but the Royals have killed us internationally. They are doing exactly what Huntington talks about the Pirates doing; flooding the system with talent.
and i agree with you
its just the Royals have the “sexier” prospects right now. i dont think their overall depth in the minor leagues is a good as ours, especially in the pitching department
We definitely have the potential...
to have move up quite a bit this year if some of our arms step forward.
Why the #($*) responses all the time?
Why so mean? Do you talk to people in person like that? If so, they are asking the same thing as you walk away??
It’s nice to see. But crowing about this runs the risk of being just as fallacious as the freakouts about the Bucs’ low standing on prospect lists this winter.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 11, 2011 6:56 PM EST reply actions
Any analogies to Pittsburgh’s national (and international) reputation and its sea change since the G-20 will be left to the reader.
You mean people have finally stopped saying, “This place used to be a dump, but wow, is it nice!”?
Kidding about media cliches aside, it’s a good thing to read that I might be able to hold the team to a high standard sometime in the near future. I will say that the talent gap between these guys and Taillon/Allie/Heredia is concerning, as I worry their peak will coincide with Alvarez and/or McCutchen hitting free agency and leaving.
Didn’t the Royals rapidly move up team prospect lists to the #1 spot due to big years by guys last year? If I recall, going into last year, Miers (not sure if he’d stick as a catcher) Hosmer (issues with his eyes) and Moustakas (problems with lefties). Also, I think other guys like Lamb and Montgomery really took off…I may be wrong on that though. The Bucs could move up rapidly this year…it really wouldn’t be completely out of the question of Marte and Sanchez took off and became A-level prospects, and one of the high school arms from the ZVR class breaks out.
Differences...
Hosmer, Myers, Moustakas, Duffy, Dwyer, Lamb, and anyone else who broke out were all high upside guys and many were already pretty highly regarded. We don’t have anyone who is going to be ranked THAT highly other than Taillon, Allie, and our #1 pick this year. Sanchez could move into top 30 conideration, Marte could make top 50, Cunningham could make top 50, one or two of the 2009 HS arms could be top 75, and few Latin guys could get into the top 100. Other than that we have very few guys who will come close. We could jump into top 5 consideration, but I don’t think we relly stand a chance at becoming #1.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
ZVR/Cain could break out
Lambo could have a big season. Gorkys could have a great season (ok, unlikely, but he could, and he was well-regarded). Heredia/Allie. Pounders/Black could have good seasons. Chambers/Grossman/Curry/Rojas all fairly well-regarded players who could have big seasons. Morris/Wilson?
If those guys had good-great seasons, would that put the Bucs in contention for #1?
My issue with “prospecting” usually is that it depends on who backs you. Owens/Wilson has had 2 pretty darn good seasons but is still not looked on as a great prospect. Mind you, the prospecters may be right, but we’ll see.
Sanchez could move into top 30 conideration, Marte could make top 50, Cunningham could make top 50, one or two of the 2009 HS arms could be top 75, and few Latin guys could get into the top 100. Other than that we have very few guys who will come close. We could jump into top 5 consideration, but I don’t think we relly stand a chance at becoming #1.
I would imagine that could move us to #1 (or #2 if the Royals don’t budge through drop-offs/graduations)
Being slightly more conservative (but still very optimistic)
- - Rendon – top 5
- - Taillon – top 10
- - Allie – top 25
- - Heredia – top 50
- - Sanchez – top 50
- - Marte – top 75
- - ZVR – top 75
- - Cain – top 100
- - 2011 2nd Rd pick – top 100
Include at least a few of the AA pitching prospects still being eligible, strong years from guys like Grossman and D’Arnaud, and promising seasons for guys like Kingham, Stevenson, Dodson, Cayonez, and Avila and that’s a #1 system.
Is it likely to happen? Hell no. Is it what happened for the Royals? Pretty much.
Much more realistic
- Rendon/Purke/Cole – top 10
- Taillon – top 25
- Sanchez – top 50
- Allie – top 75
- Heredia – top 100
- player X (ZVR/Cain/Marte/2nd Rnd 2011) – top 100
And we still have all those high upside guys like Cunningham, Dodson, Stevenson, Kingham, Mel Rojas etc. and high floor guys like D’Arnaud and 4 AA pitchers. Some will have good seasons, others will not. I’d say (assuming we don’t screw up our draft pick) we’re a safe bet to be a consensus top 12 system next year. Couple that with our promising core already in Pittsburgh and the future is very bright.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 14, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I think one’s view of the Pirate system depends on what one thinks of Lambo, Marte and Tony Sanchez. I’m very skeptical of all of them, so that’s why I don’t see the team having a top-10 type system. I like the pitching, but the hitting (and I probably like D’Arnaud and Rojas more than I should) doesn’t do much for me. I really hope Rendon has a great college season.
i dont mind at all that the farm is front loaded with pitching
when it comes time, you can deal excess to get a bat
by white angus on Feb 14, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
so you're saying
(if I’m not mistaken)
“grow the arms, buy the bats” – or some such?
by BlindSquirrel on Feb 15, 2011 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Whereas
I like Sanchez and I love Marte, so I feel really good about the system. I see 2-4 potentially elite pitchers, a dozen more with potential to be mid-rotation regulars, 1 or 2 impact position players (none elite), and 3-6 position players with potential to be starters. And I think there’s positional depth beyond that, guys like Latimore or Holt that I don’t expect anything from, but who could still step up and become starters.
#1
The Royals are just an example. If a lot of those guys you mentioned (Sanchez, Marte, etc) have big years and improve, and the Bucs system jumps roughly 10-12 spots, thats a huge improvement. They may not have the high-ceiling type guys the Royals have, but if a bunch of guys take rather large leaps, the Bucs system ranking (for what it’s worth) would as well. Also, I think ZVR and Cain, as mentioned by BK, represent probably the most likely of any of the 09 arms who could make big strides and become pretty top level prospects.
thats been my point all along
other than Owens and Morris, there hasnt been any real breakthroughs for any of our prospects. if they are doing well, they get hurt (sanchez, marte, holt) or they slump.
by white angus on Feb 14, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Almost every guy among the Bucs top 10 from last year had something like that happen (injury, slump, or both). If things break right, I think they can see a sharp increase this year. Hell, it has to even out, right?
by NastyNate82 on Feb 14, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
myers has already been moved to RF by the royals starting this spring
and yes, the royals had a bunch of prospects bust out this past season, especially Lamb and Moustakas… i think that Hosmer and Duffy will be fine Major leaguers, not sure on Moose or even Montgomery… but the royals are about 12 guys deep in MLB top prospects
by white angus on Feb 14, 2011 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
2011 over .500!
It’ll be interesting to see which happens first: the Pirates actually having some success, or people around baseball noticing the talent.
Totally agree with you. I have been telling my friends for 3 years that the Pirates would be over .500 in 2011. They’ve def got enough talent to do it. The key question is, Will they underachieve.
Agree
The pitching, especially starting pitching, is still weak.
The defense is bad.
I don’t see more than 75 wins if everything goes well.
I think 70 is far more likely.
If everything goes well
I could see them making a decent run at .500, even reaching it. But that’s everything – Tabata and Pedro making strides with the bat, Walker holding steady at the plate while making a big leap with the glove, Cedeno playing at his best for 6 months, the bullpen working out (which wouldn’t shock me, but is far from certain), and at least 2 SPs stepping up. All without any black holes.
Honestly, what I’d like from the season (short of the fantasy scenario above) is for them to hang around .500 for the first 2-3 months, and have whoever comes up from the Altoona 4 actually coming into a positive situation, instead of yet another round of, “I’ll be interested to see the young guys [lose].”
My personal pick is 72 wins, and I don’t see 75 as significantly less likely than 70.
Ouch
Who’d be the schlub to post a -5 WAR to cancel out Cutch? Since that’s essentially an all-replacement level team, it’s about as pessimistic as can be.
what about...
82 wins, but not all of them during the actual 2011 season?
by crusty on Feb 14, 2011 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
78 wins
I gotta feelin’…..Actually I’m usually too optimistic, but hey.
To me most of it comes down to McDonald and Ohlendorf. Defense is a factor, but still we pretty well know what we have in Maholm and Correia, which is league-average pitching more or less. If JMac and the Genius throw out 200 innings of 4.00 ERA ball, that’s an enormous swing from last year all by itself. 4 average starters doesn’t sound inspiring, but with a strong back end of the bullpen and a good offense (which I think the Bucs will have), that’s enough for a stab at .500.
Redeemed.
I like the pitching projection
Except that I think we’ll be lucky to have both Ohlie and Correia be productive and healthy. But hey, the cavalry is coming, right? If we get 3 solid months out of those 4 guys (and something non-disastrous from the 5 slot), then Owens or whoever can step in and take some of the workload.
One thing to remember: Maholm is actually capable of pitching pretty damn well. No reason to expect it, but his best seasons have been about a win better than his ’10. Every win counts.
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