Langosch: Tyler Yates 'Very Much In The Mix' For Bullpen Job
by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 19, 2011 7:45 PM EST
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PrintJenifer Langosch reports that Tyler Yates is "very much in the mix" for a spot in the bullpen, although she also describes him as "once a successful Major League pitcher," so who knows. Or maybe I just blinked and missed that time. Anyway, it looks like Yates has made an impression:
"He is so far ahead of everybody else, it's unbelievable," pitching coach Ray Searage said this week. "It looks like he can pitch tomorrow. Sometimes I have to yank that chain on his neck and say, 'Relax.' He's trying to make up for time that he lost. No. Live for the moment. Don't think about having to make up for stuff that happened in the past. That's over with."
Good for Yates - the article describes how he considered other career paths after having Tommy John surgery and then elbow inflammation, causing him to miss most of 2009 and all of 2010. He stuck with baseball, though, and here he is at Bradenton.
I doubt there's an organization in baseball that likes Yates half as much as the Pirates do. And yet I highly suspect that even the Pirates will be hard-pressed to find a spot for him out of camp. For one thing, there just aren't a lot of bullpen jobs available. For another, Yates is 33 and was never particularly good even before the elbow trouble. He has 48 walks in 85 career innings with the Pirates, and was often excruciating to watch.
It would be easier to be open-minded about the possibility of Yates making the team (hey, you never know, maybe Tommy John made him stronger, and he's better than ever!) if the Pirates hadn't held onto him for so long. They obviously love him and they have for years, but he's done little on the baseball field to earn it. I don't think he'll get a bullpen job when all is said and done, but I also really hope that's the way the Bucs see it, too.
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Ya gotta
have a soft spot in yer heart for someone who works soooo hard to get back to pro ball, and I’ve always had a soft spot for Ol’ “Flood Gates,” as well as T.J. (The Jim) Beam, but I really don’t think Tyler is going to make the trip North out of ST. IMO, a lot of things have to go wrong (or he needs to go incredibly right) for that to happen. As you mention, Charlie, he ain’t no Spring chicken…
Still, form everything I’ve ever read, Yates is a really nice guy, so I do wish him the best.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Agreed, Charlie....
He has never been better than average, with a K/9 rate that seems rather pedestrian for a reliever, as well as too high of BB/9 rate (especially considered in relation to the low K/9 rate).
One note of caution: Marcel, for some unknown reason, must be a believer, because they project him to have his best year ever. Granted, they expect him to get a small amount of innings, but I wonder why they have his peripherals at a career best?
Smarter people than I, any explanation for the optimism of Marcels?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Feb 19, 2011 8:51 PM EST reply actions
Marcel?
Marceau?
.
Hair Wave?
.
Duchamp?
.
Hossa?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 19, 2011 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
Well I don't know about the smarter than you part...
but Marcels looks at the last three years of data. The more recent the data the heavier the weight. Since Yates didn’t pitch last year the system is looking at 2007-2009. In 2007 and 2008 Yates posted decent/ok FIP’s and xFIP’s (3.88, 4.24 and 4.1 % 4.4 respectively). His 2009 was terrible but he only pitched 12 innings so my guess is that 2009 doesn’t bring the projection down too much. Coming off a major injury the projections seem to optimistic but if he is healthy I think the he has a chance of obtaining his projections: 4.46 FIP, 4.40 xFIP, 8K/9 with almost 5BB/9. Those seem like Yates numbers to me and are definitely better than last year but it looks like Yates’ best year (periperals wise) was 2007 (2011 proejctions included). That said I don’t know how Marcel ranks with some of the other projection systems in terms of accuracy.
I have respect for the effort he put in to get back.
But Hart and Ascanio did the same thing and are younger, better, and have higher upside.
But they are trying to come back from a shoulder injury
Its a big distinction.
Tyler Yates . . .
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Feb 19, 2011 9:52 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Quite possibly
my favourite sketch ever.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 20, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
The only reason the pirates haven’t given up on Yates is because he throws in the mid-nineties consistently. A power arm out of the pen is always a plus but he needs to show he can keep it in the strike zone
by Mike fetters on Feb 20, 2011 2:27 AM EST via mobile reply actions
A question for anyone here
If Hunter Pence got 6.9 million for 25 hr 91 rbi .280 avg what does everyone project Cutch, Alvarez, Walker, Tabata to make in 2013 assuming they all had great seasons in 2011 and 2012?
Actually…it’s 2014 that will make Nutting cry. Only Cutch is likely to be arb-eligible in 2013 (depending on…1) whether there is baseball in 2012, and 2) when arbitration eligibility hits, because Super-Twos may be gone.). They will all be arb-eligible in 2014.
I wouldn't bet on a labor dispute
Things are going really well in the MLB. Ironic since the NFL is having a ton of issues with their labor agreement
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Projected Pen?
Joel, Meek, Beimel, Veras, Resop, Karstens, Olsen/Morton………dont see where Yates has any chance to knock out any of them
Karstens is probably the worst on pure talent...
…but Yates isn’t really a multi-inning guy, and as such would seem to be a bad fit there.
by Vlad on Feb 20, 2011 10:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Unless Olsen/Morton fit into that role
I suspect if Yates stays healthy and does okay, he’ll get a chance at Indy this year and may be called up.
I’m still skeptical though.
Vlad
Is there a date in March where the Pirates could pull the plug on Karstens and not be responsible for the bulk of his contract this year? How much does service time affect this, if at all?
I don't think so, no.
He didn’t sign a split contract or go to arbitration, so I think his deal is fully guaranteed.
From what I can find...
March 14th…last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days. This is about 1/6 of a player’s salary.
March 28th is the last day that a team can ask for unconditional release waivers for a player and NOT be responsible for the player’s full salary. He would get paid 45 days termination pay, which is approximately 1/4 of the season salary.
BTW…March 22nd is the first day teams can put players on the 15 day disabled list. That player would be eligible to come off the DL on April 6th.
I guess Yates has to hope...
…that either Resop or Veras has a bad enough spring that the team loses faith in them.
Don’t really see that happening, though.
by Vlad on Feb 20, 2011 10:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Vlad
I really hope you and some others here are right about Resop.
Resop has a good chance to get hurt or ineffective this year.
He’s been hurt and bad as a reliever and got hurt immediately when Atlanta called on him. I have some memory of his arm limiting him atleast once last year with the Pirates.
I feel Atlanta’s pitching scouts and coaches are some of the best and they were onto something when they moved him to starter.
Atlanta sure does have a great track record developing pitchers though they have traded some great ones away.
by jackiegleason on Feb 20, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
My question would be what do people think the chances are that one of the above or one of the starters gets injured or traded by opening day? I put that at well above 50%, which means you have to have other guys in the mix.
What this brings up
Is that, due to the 4 guys who could fit at 2 positions (5th SP and swingman), the BP as projected includes 2 swingmen (Karstens & Morton/Olsen), which is 1 more than you need. Which does, in fact, mean that any SP injury opens up a hole for a short reliever such as Yates (and he was, at least in ‘08, a guy who went more than 1 inning on a semi-regular basis, so he doesn’t hurt you there).
But, as someone said, that still means things going perfectly for Yates and terribly for someone else (including, probably, us fans).
the BP as projected includes 2 swingmen (Karstens & Morton/Olsen), which is 1 more than you need
With our rotation, I could easily see a need for two swingmen. Particularly with all the freaking out over McDonald occasionally being asked to go more than five innings.
Yes and no
Mostly yes.
First of all, a huge part of that hinges on Morton: if he doesn’t settle in and pitch tolerably from the start, he’ll need his own swingman. Add Correia and McDonald being unreliable for heavy workloads on top of that, and you could well be right.
OTOH, we should have someone coming up from Indy by mid-June, which reduces the overall innings pressure on whichever 12 guys who go north.
well with olsen or morton...
Being in the bullpen they might not see the need to keep another inning-eater like Karstens, so I wouldn’t assume he has the job already. If Yates can show he still has his velocity I think he has a very good chance to make the pen
by Mike fetters on Feb 20, 2011 12:20 PM EST via mobile reply actions
If Yates is healthy and doesn't get a big-league job the first few weeks of the season,
NPB might come calling. There’s always a foreign pitcher or two that gets hurt early on or flops adjusting to life and baseball in Japan that needs replacing.
His career rates are similar to Jose Veras, so he could be a similar guy to that if healthy.
by Adam Reynolds on Feb 20, 2011 3:22 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I doubt there’s an organization in baseball that likes Yates half as much as the Pirates do.
An apt statement. Yates is 33 and has had three full seasons as a reliever in the majors (leaving out his initial partial season as a swing man and his aborted 2009 season). Here are some of the yearly numbers:
WHIP: 1.460, 1.439, 1.541
K/9: 8.3, 9.4, 7.7
BB/9: 5.6, 4.2, 5.0
Is there some indication that this guy has ever been even a decent pitcher? I don’t see it. The Pirates’ obsession with him is bizarre.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
NH loves the fastball
But I’m with you on this one.
Is there some indication that this guy has ever been even a decent pitcher?
Devil’s advocate here:
Career 4.40 xFIP. That’s nothing special for a RH short reliever, but it’s above replacement level, and as such he’s a reasonable use of a NRI (which is our current level of commitment).
Career 8+ K/9 is pretty decent, and while the walks are ugly, the 47.6% career GB rate would help mitigate that (by generating DPs) if our infield D weren’t so awful.
Average reliever WHIP in the NL over the last four years has been 1.34 to 1.39, and Yates has never been below 1.44, including two full years with the Braves, who had a respectable defense. And the average includes all the sad sacks who pitch in white flag roles, while the Pirates seem to think Yates is a late-inning guy. A reliever who puts runners on in those numbers is roster filler at best.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
DAMMIT, WTM!
If you’re gonna cite important stats like that, at least get…
oh, never mind.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 21, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Average reliever WHIP in the NL over the last four years has been 1.34 to 1.39, and Yates has never been below 1.44, including two full years with the Braves, who had a respectable defense.
Sure, his WHIP is below average due to all the walks. But being a high-GB pitcher helps mitigate the cost of that, since it increases DPs and decreases XBH (particularly HRs). Which is why he can carry a decent xFIP even though he puts so many guys on base.
It’s an ugly style to watch, and it makes him prone to the occasional spectacular meltdown. But it can be reasonably effective in the long and dispassionate view.
Even by xFIP, as you noted, he’s still below average—consistently below average, not up and down like some relievers who can give you an outstanding year from time to time. The Pirates have mistaken him for a late-inning reliever, but the numbers—ALL of them—show him to be a marginal major leaguer. And he’s 33 now, which combined with the consistently subpar performances shows that the odds of him improving are minimal. They can easily find other options with higher ceilings. At best, Yates is AAA depth, somebody to call on if your bullpen is wiped out by injuries and ineffectiveness. No way on earth he should come anywhere close to making the opening day roster.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Don't want to speak for Vlad...
but I think he agrees with you. He states up above somewhere that Yates numbers were below average but above replacement level so Yates would be useful as an NRI. Vlad if I misspoke I apologize.
No, that's pretty much it.
He’s not a guy who should be getting guaranteed money at this point… but he isn’t getting guaranteed money. He’s in camp as a NRI, in case Veres catches Blass disease or Hanrahan falls into a combine harvester and we end up needing a semi-respectable warm arm to round out the back of pen. If he’s healthy, he’s capable of filling that role.
This isn’t Lake Wobegon. Not everybody who’s a ML-quality player gets to be above average.
I don’t have a problem with . . .
He’s in camp as a NRI, in case Veres catches Blass disease or Hanrahan falls into a combine harvester and we end up needing a semi-respectable warm arm to round out the back of pen.
I have a problem with . . .
Tyler Yates is “very much in the mix” for a spot in the bullpen
Unless the latter is a reference to the Indy bullpen.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
He apparently added two pitches
Biertempfel said on his buccoblog at the Tribune Review that Yates has begun using a changeup again and also is adding a cutter. Apparently he now has 5 pitches.
by Cainyoudigit on Feb 20, 2011 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
That old?
I actually had lost track. 33 is crazy.
Also, 1.439 WHIP when you’re only walking 4.2/9 is ridiculous. That means he allowed more than a hit per inning. Furthermore, that was the best IF defense the team’s had in… I don’t even know how long. Years and years.
Another spring training non-story
No way unless Yates makes the team unless someone ahead of him gets injured.
Has anyone read Chris Resop's numbers as a starter?
53 hits in 82 innings with 91 K’s.
Those are Bumgartner, Hellickson like numbers. I had no idea he was that dominant.
The GM shouldn’t care if he was a highly rated prospect or not, numbers like that dont lie. It wasn’t A ball either.
With you poor rotation why would your GM not start him or allow him to compete for a spot?
Dude...
the GM’s name is Huntington. You’ve posted here enough that you should know his name by now. I don’t know what it is but the “your GM”…“your team”…“your owner” comes off as kind of condescending. I know you don’t mean it that way just pointing it out. And don’t worry, if your start saying Pirates instead of “your team” you won’t be forced to become a fan.
Sorry slick
That’s how I talk at times but it does not change the fact that Chris Resop was a beast starter last year and his history of injury at reliever is well documented.
I find it funny that Huntington would rather limit his rotation options to guys who have been blasted for most part in their major league career.
I read the one reader asking if Huntington purposely loses to get that great draft pick? With how he has managed the roster since I moved to Pittsburgh, I’d hope that is the case and it is not a case of total incompetency.
by jackiegleason on Feb 21, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
No worries, I was pretty sure you didn't mean anything by it...
I agree with you on Resop btw. I don’t think NH sabaotges his roster but I do think he trusts his scouts who may be letting him down at the ML level. Resop performed well last year in his relief role and only has two really good pitches, IMO, though he does have a four pitch mix. I am curious to see what he can bring to the table as a starter but Huntington has stated that he feels his injury history leaves him better suited for the pen.
his history of injury at reliever is well documented
I must admit, this kind of smells like post hoc ergo propter hoc to me.
Is that Latin Vlad?
I need a translation
by jackiegleason on Feb 21, 2011 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Google is your friend, and it’s just a copy and paste away at all times!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 21, 2011 6:41 PM EST up reply actions
It is Latin.
Cocktails’s link is a good summary, but the basic idea is this:
Just because Resop got hurt while being used in a relief role does not necessarily imply that the relief role was what caused Resop to be injured.
"Or maybe I just blinked and missed that time."
This was the time. 2.0 INN, 6 TBF, 4 Ks, 15:4 strike:ball ratio. Put down Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Pence, Wigginton (that was his 126 wRC+ year), and someone called Towles. She may have had a different game in mind, but I think that was the time he was “once a successful Major League pitcher.”
someone called Towles
J.R. Towles. Catching prospect. Bat hasn’t developed (as is sometimes the case with C prospects), and has mostly fallen out of favor in Houston, but is still on the roster for now IIRC.
Thanks
The name didn’t ring a bell at all (surprising for how often we play Houston), and he obviously wasn’t important as far as that sequence was concerned.
Incidentally, that must have been a fun game; I don’t recall it (which makes me think I missed it, since it was memorable), but Dumatrait shits the bed, the Houston starter matches him, then Dumatrait tries to do it again, with Marte cleaning up the mess. Excellent relief from Yates and Bautista (!) the rest of the way, and a 10-7 come-from-behind win for the Buccos.
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