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The Bradenton Marauders: A Guess At The Roster

The 2011 Bradenton Marauders will mostly consist of last year's West Virginia players, who combined obvious skills with weaknesses that were equally obvious. As these guys, especially the hitters, move up, they'll be tested at each level, because the closer you get to the big leagues, the harder it is to succeed while having serious trouble making contact, for example. So this should be an interesting season for the Marauders - most of their players will be appropriate ages for the level, and many of them have a chance to either emerge as legitimate prospects or flop completely. They also will have a number of pitchers who are returning from serious injuries.

Thanks, again, to WTM's organizational depth chart, which makes posts like this way easier than they might be.

CATCHER

Ramon Cabrera struggled through his full-season debut in West Virginia last year, but probably not so much that the Pirates won't move him up. He'll get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate, followed by some combination of Jordan Newton, Jairo Marquez and Travis Scott. Scott is pretty much pure minor-league depth, but Newton and Marquez are at least somewhat interesting. Newton plainly can hit, but he's too old for the level; if he winds up with Bradenton, he'll probably also see time at DH. Marquez has played well in fits and starts, and isn't especially old, but the Pirates have yet to clear a space for him.

FIRST BASE

This will be Aaron Baker and hopefully also Matt Curry. Curry is much more interesting than Baker, at this stage - Baker didn't hit nearly enough last year for a 22-year-old with no defensive value in Class A. There's also Calvin Anderson, who didn't hit much for Bradenton last year, but I'm guessing he'll be at Altoona in 2011. There isn't an obvious first baseman in Altoona if he's not there, and the Pirates usually prefer moving players who might be prospects up at least once a year, rather than keeping them at the same level.

MIDDLE INFIELD

Jarek Cunningham should be the Marauders' second baseman, and he'll face a challenge in his quest to learn to hit offspeed pitches. Benjamin Gonzalez, who didn't hit at West Virginia but who played solid defense, should be the shortstop. Greg Picart, a capable organizational player, could back them up. Cunningham and Gonzalez are both good ages for the level, but either one could struggle. With a step forward, Cunningham could emerge this year as one of the Pirates' top prospects, but he could easily flop as well.

THIRD BASE

Hopefully this will be Elevys Gonzalez. Jesus Brito, who struggled in West Virginia but has very good power, could also pick up at bats here.

OUTFIELD

Assuming Starling Marte and Robbie Grossman move up to Altoona (and I think they probably will, although Grossman is young enough that it might not be an awful idea to let him consolidate his skills at Bradenton for a while), this year's Marauders outfield will be a little less prospect-packed than last year's. Evan Chambers should be the starting centerfielder, and as with Cunningham, his promotion could represent a big test. Chambers needs to be more aggressive and strike out a lot less, or pitchers with more advanced control will eat him alive. Still, with power, speed and on-base ability, he has upside.

Rogelios Noris will likely be in one of the corners. Noris struggled in West Virginia, striking out 144 times compared to 15 walks, so he represents a serious risk of collapsing completely as he moves up. The other outfield spot will probably be occupied by David Rubinstein and Jose Hernandez, who are probably both organizational players.

STARTING PITCHING

Quinton Miller's development has been slowed by injuries, but he has terrific stuff, and there's no reason he can't succeed in Bradenton if he's healthy. It's also possible the Pirates could send him to West Virginia, but given the number of pitchers who need innings there, Bradenton seems like a more likely destination. Brett Lorin, who will be 24 after missing most of 2010 with injury, should be at Bradenton as well. Yet another injured pitcher, Hunter Strickland, should take another spot in the rotation if he's healthy.

Phillip Irwin, who pitched very well at West Virginia last year, should also stick in a starting role. The same goes for Kyle McPherson, and it will be interesting to see how McPherson's homer-allowing ways play in Bradenton and against more advanced hitters.

There's also the possibility that the Pirates could send Tim Alderson back to Bradenton. If they need any starting pitching beyond that, they could turn to Jason Erickson, Gabriel Alvarado or Matt McSwain.

Miller is pretty clearly a legit prospect, and the Pirates evidently believe McPherson is one too. Beyond that, who knows. Given the logjam of pitching at West Virginia, it will be interesting to see what happens to guys like Irwin and Strickland if any of the Power's pitchers break out and win promotions midway through the season.

UPDATE: A couple people in the comments have asked about Nate Baker. My guess is that he'll be at Altoona, regardless of whether someone like Irwin outperformed him last year. As an early-round draft pick, I think the Pirates will be more aggressive with Baker than they will with most prospects, and since Baker survived late last season in Bradenton (albeit with more homers than you'd like to see), my guess is that they'll just move him up. It is possible he could remain in Bradenton, however.

RELIEF

If healthy, Victor Black should be the Marauders' top reliever, followed by undersized lefty Elicier Navarro and then starters or former starters who don't make the rotation (such as Erickson, Alvarado, and Maurice Bankston) and organizational guys (Zachary Foster, Mike Williams, Marc Baca). My guess is that it's also possible that 2010 Marauders closer Noah Krol could return, although the Pirates could also send him to Altoona.

If Duke Welker is still with the organization, the Bucs could send him back to the Bradenton bullpen, although he struggles to strike out more batters than he walks. Welker threw very hard last year, though, and the Pirates put up with Mike Felix's Rick Ankiel act for a very long time.

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Irwin and Baker

I was confused about this last year, and am hoping someone (WTM, maybe) who watches minor league games can shed some light. In 2009, the Bucs drafted Irwin and Baker. Baker was promoted to Bradenton part way through last season. Between the two, he has the worse stats in K, BB, K/BB, and HR/9 categories. Why was Baker promoted earlier? I know the Bucs want to see pitchers develop certain abilities before moving up, which is a possible reason, but more specifics would help, if anyone is aware.

Charlie, I think it’s quite likely Nate Baker will start in A+. It’s also possible that Irwin’s stop in A+ is short, if he can keep up the numbers from WV. (Owens jumped to AA with a short A+ stint, and its possible Irwin might do the same- their stats from WV look v v similar to me.)

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

Baker

Yeah, I’d bet he returns to Bradenton. He only got 45 innings there last year and didn’t do anything to earn a promotion (FIP over 5). I have no idea why he was promoted last year rather than Irwin or McPherson.

I would guess that Grossman returns to Bradenton too, though I’m less confident about that. He’s plenty young enough and he needs some more work before the jump to AA. Plus, those upper level outfields are going to be crowded.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

“I have no idea why he was promoted last year rather than Irwin or McPherson”

Probably because he has a left arm.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 3:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

at 6.4K/9 in Class A and High A, continuing to promote him seems like a recipe for disaster (or back end starter, when he could potentially use some more time to develop better)

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Normally I’d agree, but the Pirates seem to have a different way of developing their pitching prospects (though maybe it’s really not that different—anyone know?). If he’s been limited to focusing on fastball command and has mastered that, then that could explain both the low K rate and the promotion. Pure speculation of course.

by TNbucs on Feb 2, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

fastball command

His walk rate jumped after the promotion, so if he was indeed focusing on fastball command last year he obviously hasn’t mastered it.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

actually

That’s probably not fair. He was using his full arsenal when I saw him in Bradenton, so maybe he was working on fastball command at WV but was allowed to use his full repertoire after the promotion, and lack of command/control with his secondaries was responsible for the jump in walk rate.

Either way, though, the poor results are hard to dismiss at this point.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

probably because he has a left arm

Do we have a surplus of pitchers with only one arm?

by Wizard of Woz on Feb 2, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s the new market inefficiency!

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 2, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Or even no arms!

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Feb 2, 2011 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Why would Baker start in A again? He had a good enough year. I haven’t seen him, but the Proscouting guide ranked him 10th in the system, with #3 starter potential…

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 3:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

not A

A+, high A. He doesn’t seem to have done much in high A, in the short stint last year, and I don’t see why you’d send him to the next level unless you are convinced his stuff is better than its playing for whatever reason.

I don’t know the Proscouting guide, so I dont have much idea of comparables for their #3 projection. The bare numbers indicated to me that he’d be a prime candidate to become a reliever, although numbers are not v useful at such an early stage.

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I updated the post. My thinking was that because he’s an early-round college pick, they’d be pretty aggressive with him. They basically just threw Justin Wilson into levels he didn’t necessarily appear to be ready for and let him struggle, and that approach seemed to work pretty well. They’ve been a little more conservative with Baker, but this is an obvious spot where they can try to push him a bit.

I probably should have said all that from the beginning, though.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 2, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

its possible

If you’d asked me before last season began, I’d have guessed they’d give Wilson a bit more time in high A. So its possible they adopt a similar approach with Baker. Wasn’t Wilson also a 5th rd pick like Baker?

Unlike then, though, the Pirates actually have more in the system. For instance (and again, purely on the numbers), as epoc pointed out, I could see a stronger case for promoting both Irwin and McPherson ahead of Baker.

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilson

They placed him aggressively by starting him in A+, but he did spend an entire season there and his stuff is way, way, way better than Baker’s. Baker is a step above an org player in my opinion.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

What source is your stuff comparison based on?

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 4:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

What I’ve found so far is this guide (chiefly written by former pro scout Anup Sinha), and the Pirates Prospects web site (which is a different entity).

In both sources, both Baker and Wilson have similar velocity (basically around 88-92). Then both sources agree they both have two other average or solid average offerings. PP says Wilson’s curve could be plus, same is said in the PS guide about Baker’s change.

Maybe Baseball America is different. I didn’t order their guide yet.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 4:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

no

Again, I won’t discount any scouts’ perspective, but I personally feel that Baker is not anywhere near Wilson’s class of pitcher. Wilson’s velocity is much better than Baker’s, for one. I don’t doubt that Baker has hit 92 once or twice, but 88-92 is not an accurate assessment of his velocity. Similarly, Wilson has worked 88-92 at times, but he touches 95 and sits 89-92 right now. On top of that, Baker’s fastball doesn’t have much movement, while Wilson’s has excellent sinking action.

With the secondaries, yeah, I could see Baker’s changeup becoming an above-average pitch, but that again kind of oversells him in comparison with Wilson. Wilson’s breaking pitches could be plus in the sense that they already flash plus regularly although he hasn’t been able to throw them as plus pitches with consistency. Baker’s changeup could be plus only in the sense that he has a decent feel for it and it’s theoretically possible that with some more work it could become an above-average pitch.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

stuff

My comparison is based on the accumulation of a lot of sources, as well as seeing Baker in person. But if you’re looking for quotes or something, here’s Sickels on Baker:

“finesse lefty . . . works in the 87-90 range, mixing in a slider and changeup. None of his pitches are terrific . . . If he makes it, it will be as a number four or five starter or a relief asset.”

and on Wilson:
“His fastball velocity has been picking up, from 88-93 in past years up to 93-95 MPH at times in ‘10. His curveball and slider are also promising, and he keeps the ball down . . . Wilson’s pitches have a lot of movement . . . lefty power arms aren’t easy to find, and I think people need to keep a close eye on this one. Even a marginal improvement with his command could give him a big leap forward in ’11.”

As corroboration, I saw Baker at Bradenton a few times and he’s very underwhelming. Fastball in the high 80s and nothing special in the way of secondaries. He seemed to be surviving on being a lefty and being more advanced than the league. Some guys can get by as finesse lefties in the long run, but they tend to do a bit better than 6 k/9 in A ball after coming out of big D1 colleges.

Keith Law was clocking Wilson at 93-95 in the AFL, to partially corroborate that end of it, and he thinks enough of Wilson to rate him #7 in our organization, above Bryan Morris.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

FWIW...

I really like Justin Wilson. To say he has a lot of movement on his fastball is almost an understatement. I think this will be the reason he will never have a good walk rate but if he can induce GB at 45% clip while striking out 7 or 8 per 9 I think he can be a very effective starter. It would be a shame to waste his arm in the bullpen.

by Slick1 on Feb 2, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m not sure that clears much up. Sickles Baker readings are different than the other two sources, and 93-95 “at times” isn’t very descriptive (how does he usually throw?). Also, Sickles doesn’t pin a numbered stater tag on Wilson: does he really see him as a 3 or above?

I appreciate your first-hand analysis. If you’re going by a stadium radar gun, then it may have been slow for a day. But, your perspective does help (if not totally clear it up).

The Law reading doesn’t mean a lot, since Wilson was pitching in relief in the Arizona league.

Anyway, I learned a lot here, at least.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 5:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Baker's velo

I was looking over Alderson’s shoulder at his radar gun, so it was probably relatively accurate. Either way, Baker doesn’t have the velo or the movement that Wilson does. Baker doesn’t even touch 95, so it should be pretty clear that Wilson is throwing much harder.

BA ranks Wilson 15 and Baker 17 in our system, so there’s another source that doesn’t see too much difference between the two. I guess it just comes down to what you want to believe, but based on the statistics and the stuff, I feel very, very strongly that Wilson is much better than Baker.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions  

BA's list

I have a gripe with their top 30 list as well. While the top 12 or so are fairly OK by me, the rest of it seems a bit messed up. Aguero and Baker were too high for me, and there were quite a few people missing from it for my liking.

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

agree

BA’s list does not jive well with my own perceptions. I’d guess that it was DK’s work and that it’s heavily influenced by stuff like Baker getting promoted last year while Irwin was not. Irwin was 31 for them while Baker was 17, despite them being basically the same pitcher except that Irwin is right-handed and throws a curve instead of a slider. It’s clear to me that Irwin and Baker are several steps behind a guy like Wilson. The BA list is chock full of oddities like that. But again, it’s worth considering every opinion. I haven’t gotten around to reading their write-ups for the top 30, but I’m very interested to read what they have to say about these guys.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Cunningham, Holt, Chambers

dont make the top 30 off the top of my head, while Aguero, Latimore and Pribanic do.

Black, Gorkys, Baker and Dodson too high for my liking. Mercer too, probably.

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Not a bad list IMO. I’d probably just cut Aguero and Pribanic for Chambers and Miller. Besides that, you could move a couple guys up and down.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 7:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

“I don’t know the Proscouting guide, so I dont have much idea of comparables for their #3 projection. The bare numbers indicated to me that he’d be a prime candidate to become a reliever, although numbers are not v useful at such an early stage”

They also threw out the 3 label for Owens and Wilson, with Owens most likely to get there.

I don’t think they’re dissecting the low-minors advanced starts that much. The questions are probably more, does he throw left-handed and look good to our scouting and/or coaching? Probably the same with Justin Wilson. He got a fairly good report in the magazine, despite K/BB and other stats.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 3:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

for reference

what did they say about Morris? Locke? Lincoln? (any others mentioned)

Also, #3 seems (to me) like a ceiling to throw out there for players you are convinced wont be an ace. The question is, do they consider the most likely case to be long relief/5th starter, or is the average case #4 with a chance to be a bit better. Or, in terms of comparables, Duke/Maholm? Burres? Gorzelanny?

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, they focus on upside, because the downside is obvious with players like Baker or Wilson, or the 09 high school pitchers. Also you’d get what their tools are like.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 4:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

proscouting

All scouting perspectives are useful, and I wouldn’t call any scout’s opinion wrong, necessarily, but you won’t find many other people/organizations who see Baker as a top ten player in our system or someone who has a ceiling as a #3 starter. He doesn’t have the stuff for that and so far he hasn’t shown any ability to play above his stuff either.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

fair enough

I feel like they aren’t taking into account the age/ETAs for the players. For instance, the estimation of average case/upside should change greatly depending on that. So while its OK to concentrate on the upside of a 19 year old like the 09 HS pitchers, it probably isnt right to do that for the 23 year old Baker.

(My impression is that Baker at #10 is a big reach- can you post their prospect list? or link to it?)

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

They take into account ETA and likelihood into making the order of the list, but they don’t say in the description that so-and-so has a 40% chance of doing this and 60% of doing that. No one that I’ve seen does.

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 4:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

That's not what I'm saying

I’m saying that if you scout a guy when he’s 19, then you project him based a little more on things that could happen (adding velocity because of filling out, improving his pitches, control, etc) than on actual results, because he has more time to do so. When he’s 23, time is rapidly running out, and you should base your projection more on results than on possible improvements, because he’s going to have less time to do that.

Ranking Baker at #10 makes me feel like they aren’t taking into account this difference. Just my opinion.

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

“When he’s 23 time is rapidly running out, and you should base your projection more on results than on possible improvements, because he’s going to have less time to do that”

Don’t tell that to Steve Pearce! (or, for an example from last year, walker).

by Adam Reynolds on Feb 2, 2011 5:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Steve Pearce

always had pretty good numbers in the minors, even before his breakout in 2007, and even so, he’s basically maxed out his potential and is now a AAAA player or maybe an ML platoon player. That’s a good analogue, in my opinion. Baker’s stats aren’t terrible, but they’re not good either, and if he maxes out his potential he might have a couple of okay years at the back of someone’s rotation.

Walker, on the other hand, isn’t a good analogue, as he was always very talented – a first-round draft pick, top prospect, in AAA at 21. Stagnating at AAA as 23-year-old isn’t all that similar to being mediocre in A ball as a 23-year-old.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Pearce

He dominated the minors before becoming fringy perhaps due to lack of ability or handling. If Baker was dominating like Pearce on the pitching side of things, I wouldn’t have a problem with the #3 tag. Like epoc, but based on numbers only, I’d say Wilson has a much better chance than Baker. He has the ability to strike people out and as Sickels says, an improvement in the walks department may immediately raise his status significantly.

Baker, imo, needs more to jump to top 10 status. Maybe he is still working on some things, since he was in WV for most of last year, and its entirely possible we’ll see him bust out big next year. We’ll see.

by BurgherKing on Feb 2, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Irwin missed a little time with some minor injury. That may be why.

Grossman will probably go back to Bradenton.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Feb 2, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Jeff Inman?

Any word on Jeff Inman? If I remember correctly, he was throwing well in Spring Training last year, and then went down the injury rabbit hole.

by coreysc on Feb 2, 2011 3:10 PM EST reply actions  

NH was asked in the blogger interview if they had any minor leaguers expected to be out with injuries going into the season and he said nobody aside from Veal.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Feb 2, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Vlad remembered to ask about Inman right after Coonelly left. I don’t know what’s going on with him.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 2, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha, Vlad is always the exception!

by coreysc on Feb 2, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Correction

I wouldn’t be shocked if, when answering the question, NH had forgotten Inman was in the organization. Not a knock on NH, it just seems like everyone else has.

by coreysc on Feb 2, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Strickland and Grossman

These are interesting players to me.

I hadn’t even thought about Strickland being in Bradenton’s rotation. I guess it’s possible, but he was never very good to begin with and he was downright horrible last year. Does anyone still hold out hopes for him, maybe giving an injury mulligan for last year? He’s still young, so I suppose he’s not hopeless, but I don’t see much to be excited about there.

Grossman, on the other hand, I still believe in. He didn’t have a good season last year, but I think there are a lot of reasons to be hopeful. He was very young for the FSL last year, for one. Also, he cut his k rate significantly while mostly maintaining his walk rate in the jump to hi A. He also hit for slightly more power despite moving up a level and into a tougher hitting environment. Finally, he had a pretty significant platoon split – .279/.353/.393 vs. LHP and .233/.341/.328 vs. RHP – which probably has a lot to do with the fact that he’s relatively new to switch-hitting. I’ve read scouting reports that say he has a better swing from the left side but doesn’t recognize pitches as well. With more experience, it’s very possible that he improves from that side of the plate. He still has all the tools to succeed, so even though his performance has been disappointing so far, I still like him a lot. I hope he heads back to Bradenton next year to work on his pitch recognition from the left side before getting thrown to the AA wolves.

by epoc on Feb 2, 2011 9:36 PM EST reply actions  

Does anyone still hold out hopes for him, maybe giving an injury mulligan for last year?

There’s always a chance he wasn’t pitching with his full repertoire, I guess.

by Vlad on Feb 4, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

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