Ross Ohlendorf Wins Arbitration Case

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 9, 2011 2:02 PM EST

Ross Ohlendorf has won his arbitration case and will receive $2.025 million this season. This is a shame, not because he didn't deserve it, but because this year's win will cause Ohlendorf's salaries to be higher in the next two seasons (edit: actually three, because he's a Super Two, which makes the situation even worse), potentially forcing the Pirates to make tougher decisions about whether to keep him around.

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my opinion on the Pirates number

they felt like they could agree to something like 1.7-1.8M. I doubt they expected to win at 1.4M. The agreement didnt happen and they are screwed, now.

by BurgherKing on Feb 9, 2011 2:14 PM EST reply actions

If that is the case then smart move by Ohlie

He had to know that, given past super twos, that he was much more likely to win than the FO.

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by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Feb 9, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

I m speculating

given the numbers someone posted on the previous discussion thread, it seems likely that he would come in at around 1.7M.

by BurgherKing on Feb 9, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

I think they thought they had a solid case

I suspect they could have settled at $1.8 million or slightly more.

I really think that they felt their figure was closer to value.

by Bernie6 on Feb 9, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

actually, you are probably right

it makes sense to throw a lower number at his agent while negotiating, but none at all to submit it to the arb guys.

by BurgherKing on Feb 9, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

It’s tough to try to figure out what kind of raise a Super Two starting pitcher gets in years 2, 3, and 4. I really can’t even find which players were Super Twos going back more than a couple years. The furthest back I could find was 2009, when Cole Hamels was one. He was a pretty special case and signed a multi-year deal, though.

by ElDuce on Feb 9, 2011 2:40 PM EST reply actions

I actually researched this a couple months ago

I found that, for the most part the 40/60/80 standard for arb-eligibles is true, where first-year eligibles get paid 40% of their WAR-value, second-years 60%, and third-years 80%. Super-twos follow this same pattern (in general) after getting about 30% in their super-two year. The outliers are generally relief pitchers, homerun hitters, and bad players who get more playing time than they should. Those types of players do better than 40/60/80. On the other hand, guys who get a lot of value from their defense do worse. The problem is that the sample size gets really small by the end of the spectrum. Very few players make it through all their arb years without signing multi-year deals or being non-tendered. I’d guess that if Ross goes to arbitration three more times he’ll get something like $3MM, $4.5MM, and $6MM, but that assumes his performance doesn’t change much over that period.

by epoc on Feb 9, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

that makes sense

that assumes his performance doesn’t change much over that period.

This is the real trouble. One really good (peak?) year can really spike that trend. Especially given that in arb, salaries never come down.

by BurgherKing on Feb 9, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

If I had to guess, I’d bet that Ross gets non-tendered before his arb years are up, especially given the quick non-tender trigger we’ve seen from this FO in the past.

by epoc on Feb 9, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

or traded

by epoc on Feb 9, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

Not if he's healthy

If he becomes a 185 inning SP with the stuff he seems to have (#3 starter stuff? about that), then I don’t think they non-tender him, simply because even $6M isn’t a lot for that performance, and because by 2013/2014, they need not to be risking starts on projects like Olsen or chum like Karstens.

Or, if they have better/younger options (and by ’14 they probably will), then they can trade him – plenty of contenders would be happy to pay $6M for a #4 who pitches like a #3.

by JRoth95 on Feb 10, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

sure

If he becomes a #3 starter they’ll probably lock him up long-term, and they certainly won’t non-tender him. He’ll cost more than $6MM in his final year, though, if he becomes that good.

by epoc on Feb 10, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

#3 is probably too high

That would represent a real surge in performance/consistency. But a pretty good #4, near as I can tell. Which is still worth $6M unless you also need a 1-3 and a few hitters as well.

by JRoth95 on Feb 10, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

Advanced Metrics

I’m wondering if this win signifies that the arbitrators are finally starting to consider factors beyond just W-L record, ERA and K’s.

By traditional measures, there was no way Ohlendorff was worth an award of $2MM for this year. However, if items such as run support, ERA+ and other previously-ignored factors were considered, then teams are going to have to adjust accordingly to their arbitration tactics.

Also, I’m curious if the Pirates did a hard push against Ohlendorff or if they figured he would be part of the organization for the next few years and did not want to destroy the relationship. It’s one thing to throw a guy under the bus in his third arb year, another one entirely to try to bury a guy you hope to have around for four more years.

by Bishop1973 on Feb 9, 2011 2:41 PM EST reply actions

I think it’s based solely on ERA. There really isn’t an “advanced” stat that you can throw out for Ohlendorf that likes him all that much. He’s significantly outperformed his peripherals the last two years and the projection systems are still very down on him.

by ElDuce on Feb 9, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

Was thinking the same...

… and if so this could be a cornerstone win for players going forward. Ohlie truly is a good example of his numbers being representative of being on a bad team.

by Cheap Beer on Feb 10, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

I’m wondering if this win signifies that the arbitrators are finally starting to consider factors beyond just W-L record, ERA and K’s.

What makes you think this was the case?

by ol Pete on Feb 10, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Because Ohlendorf had one win last season and still won the case

by Slick1 on Feb 10, 2011 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

That doesn't really support the point

by ol Pete on Feb 11, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

If he has a decent 2011 he will be traded

Owens, Lincoln, Wilson, Morris, and probably Locke will be waiting in the wings for 2012

by BadAndy on Feb 9, 2011 4:26 PM EST reply actions

I certainly hope the Pirates aren’t relying on Ohlendorf in two or three seasons.

by bolton on Feb 9, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

I certainly hope Ohlendorf does well enough to have trade value

But then that would bring up a catch-22. If he has a good season, people will fry NH for getting rid of one of our best pitchers. Every day I appreciate more and more how shitty NH’s job is.

by OctaShields on Feb 10, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

Injury history

It won’t be a difficult decision to keep him around or not if he can’t show that can stay healthy. He has shown to be injury-prone and so far just isn’t reliable enough to be counted on. He has shown to be a decent pitcher but how realistic is it for him to pitch a whole year considering since he has been a Pirate he has spent a lot of time on the DL? Hopefully this year he can stay on the mound and out of the trainer’s room.

Proud fan of Pittsburgh's professional sports teams and the Pirates too.

by Black&GoldTrain on Feb 9, 2011 4:26 PM EST reply actions

I understand why people don't like this

But good for him, 2 million dollars isn’t that much, this is pretty standard for a player like ross, the pirates are skin flints and i’m glad to see them open their wallets slightly more

by Josh D. Brown on Feb 9, 2011 5:18 PM EST reply actions

2 million dollars isn’t that much

this sentence has never been utter before ever by anyone.

by theatrain on Feb 11, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

Lol.

Pompeani just went trolling on the 6pm news about this. Pretty much said it was ridiculous to award Ohlendorf that kind of money, and cited only one stat in support of his argument. I don’t suppose I need to tell you which stat that was.

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by wg1of5 on Feb 9, 2011 6:56 PM EST reply actions