Pirates Trying Pedro Ciriaco In Outfield
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 15, 2011 2:59 AM EDT
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Colin Dunlap on Pedro Ciriaco:
With Clint Hurdle mentioning that Pedro Ciriaco (pictured, above) was going to get some work in center, does this all but assure that Ciriaco is, by far, the leader for a bench spot right now? Seems that at this point in spring, they aren't moving you around, asking you to play another position and working with you there if they don't see something they really like in terms of keeping you around. If Ciriaco does make an appearance in center, that would mean he could be used at second, short, third and in center moving forward -- and that position flexibility might just offset what he doesn't give you with the bat.
I realize the idea of using Ciriaco as an outfielder is very much in the beta stage, but it would be interesting if he could play there. The ability to play several infield positions and center was supposed to be Corey Wimberly's calling card, but it looks like the Pirates might like Ciriaco to have it instead. That's fine with me, since Ciriaco probably wouldn't be substantially worse than Wimberly with the bat and appears to be much better with the glove.
Potential bench:
C/OF Ryan Doumit
IF Pedro Ciriaco
That's my guess right now. Doumit and Diaz/Jones are locks. I don't think the Pirates will carry a third catcher; it seems wasteful, and it isn't like anything about Jason Jaramillo or Dusty Brown's pedigrees inspire confidence anyway. Ciriaco's defensive ability wins him a job. As someone pointed out recently, the Pirates under Neal Huntington have kept three straight Rule 5 picks out of Spring Training, so Rodriguez stays (and he should, given his versatility and offensive ability).
As for Atkins, Andy Marte has hit much better than this Spring, and so has John Bowker. But Atkins' right-handedness and ability to play third (which I don't think should matter much, given that Ciriaco and Rodriguez can both play there, as can Neil Walker) give him the edge over Bowker, and his (Atkins') history with Clint Hurdle gives him the edge over Marte. Steve Pearce's having an option gives everyone an edge over Steve Pearce. I hope I'm wrong about Atkins - I'd much rather see Bowker (who is out of options) or even Marte.
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Not a fan of Atkins. Hopefully Pearce can turn enough heads.
by ATribeCalledGreg on Mar 15, 2011 6:59 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t have a problem with this. If Ciriaco can be useful at additional positions, it doesn’t hurt quite so much to have his slap-hitting ass on the bench as it would if he could just play SS.
I’m pretty much resigned to the fact that Garrett Atkins will be on the roster Opening Day. It’s not enough for me to be really upset about, but it seems like a poor use of this season to find out what guys like Pearce and Bowker are capable of.
As for Bowker, maybe Smizik was right about NH needlessly dumping Javier Lopez last year. There was no urgency to get rid of him, he didn’t cost much and if Bowker gets outrighted to Indy (or claimed off waivers), the Pirates have nothing to show for the trade. Again, not something that is going to cause me to lose sleep at night (although admitting that Smizik might actually be correct about something may cause me to drink a little heavier tonight), but it seems like a wasted opportunity, either by not keeping Lopez or not seeing how Bowker could perform given sufficient PAs.
Bowker
i’d love to have him around just a year longer. In hindsight, i half wish we found a way to get rid of jones this offseason…
i know that may not be giving the team the best chance
but at least through june, i d like personnel to be decided by option/players we could lose…
didnt Lopez just sign a contract for $3MM this season?
we got beimel and olsen for less than that.
by white angus on Mar 15, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
so youre saying its okay to have the third (?) highest paid player on your team perform in less than 5% of your teams innings for the season??? okay
oh, and wasnt lopez pretty awful the year before we aquired him?
so youre saying its okay to have the third (?) highest paid player on your team perform in less than 5% of your teams innings for the season???
It’s not the ideal situation, but when the alternative involves blowing that money on a non-upgrade like Overbay, then yeah, I would’ve ratehr hung onto Lopez. A small, overpriced upgrade is better than none at all.
oh, and wasnt lopez pretty awful the year before we aquired him?
Not really, no. He got off to a slow start with the Red Sox, and they punted him because they didn’t have the luxury of waiting for him to come around. He was just fine in Pawtucket the rest of the way, but they had already moved on, so he stayed there the rest of the way.
Minor league performance counts, too. I don’t know how many times I have to say that before people start believing it.
I think the ratio
is roughly 150,000 times for every instance of a minor league standout playing himself off the roster of the worst team in baseball or a mediocre minor leaguer hitting, I dunno, 21 HRs in a half MLB season.
It’s funny because it’s true: standout exceptions like LaRoche and Jones (and, arguably, Walker, since you were one of the most vocal in arguing that his MiL numbers showed he wasn’t good enough to succeed in the bigs) have way, way more weight than all the myriad players whose MLB careers pretty much follow suit from their MiL numbers. That’s how human cognition works, for better or worse.
I’m not actually arguing that you’re wrong*; I’m just explaining why people don’t listen to you on this.
- the one sense in which you’re wrong is that, even if you say that MiL performance is predictive/projectable/translatable to within 95% for 95% of players (which I suspect is higher than it really is), that still leaves about 40 MLB players at any given time whose actual MLB performance is significantly different from what their MiL numbers implied. That’s not a meaningless portion, especially since it’s more like 50 or 60 guys over the course of a season. If you committed to giving 600 PAs/32 starts to every minor leaguer whose numbers showed him an MLB regular, and never gave regular playing time to anyone whose MiL numbers were unimpressive, you’d be shooting yourself in the foot on a regular basis.
and, arguably, Walker, since you were one of the most vocal in arguing that his MiL numbers showed he wasn’t good enough to succeed in the bigs
Walker got promoted in 2010 after hitting .321/.392/.560 at AAA. That’s called earning it. If he had been playing that well from the start, he would’ve earned a callup a lot sooner than he did.
Walker isn’t a refutation of the idea that minor league numbers matter. He’s a confirmation of it.
If you committed to giving 600 PAs/32 starts to every minor leaguer whose numbers showed him an MLB regular, and never gave regular playing time to anyone whose MiL numbers were unimpressive, you’d be shooting yourself in the foot on a regular basis.
If you gave that level of playing time to every major leaguer whose numbers showed him to be a MLB-caliber regular, you’d have failures too. Just look at Iwamura last year. These are human beings, and you can’t entirely eliminate the human element – but playing the percentages is still the best strategy, in the absence of compelling evidence otherwise.
Whoa whoa whoa
Walker, pre-2010: 2664 PAs, all of which you insisted in the fall of 2009 proved that the guy was a bum – a marginal UT at best.
Walker, MiL 2010: 189 PAs “earn it”
So the rule now is that 189 PAs trump 14X as many? Bullshit. Just bullshit, Vlad. Show me a thread in which you wrote, “but if he hits well in his next <200 PAs, that would prove me completely wrong.” You didn’t write it because it’s not what you believed, not until the guy took a step forward and showed that those thousands of MiL PAs didn’t actually mean that much (career MiL OPS: .763, and that’s after those 189 PAs at .951).
My point about 600 PAs is that, whenever someone with solid MiL numbers craps out in a couple hundred PAs, you (among others) will insist that it’s a SSS, and MiL numbers count, etc. etc. IOW, in practice, if you think that the MiL numbers say a guy is a MLB regular, you refuse to accept anything less than 400+ MLB PAs as refutation. And my point is that that means throwing a way a lot of PAs on the basis of MiL numbers and in the face of MLB reality.
Also, the ZIPS advocates were misleading with Walker a year ago as well:
Walker pre-2010 ZIPS: .260/.303/.447, 93 OPS+. That is right in like with Feliz/Inge/Kouzmanoff/Peralta who are solid starters, but Walkers wouldn’t make it even with people for follow ZIPS religiously.
Similarly, Diaz has a better ZIPS than Milledge, but Milledge is supposedly better (or the same,), and Duke has the same ZIPS ERA as Correia, but Duke is better.
ZIPS and MLEs are used selectively and unevenly, when it fits the argument. Zips and MLE users need to come with a grain of salt, because they like to use tricks. It can be useful data, but not the way BD posters use it.
Walker was one of the players where they misled with MLEs and ZIPS (actually ignored ZIPS and age-to-level).
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Similarly, Diaz has a better ZIPS than Milledge, but Milledge is supposedly better (or the same,), and Duke has the same ZIPS ERA as Correia, but Duke is better.
ZiPS is tool. A good tool, IMO. But no projection system is going to be right about every player every time. You need to look at the total package of the available evidence when making your prediction about what a player’s going to do. If you just uncritically follow the ZiPS line, you aren’t an analyst. You’re a parrot, or a cheerleader.
(Also, FWIW, you’re wrong about Correia/Duke. The raw ERA is the same, but that’s a function of park factors. Duke is projected to have the better ERA+ of the two, and thus the better season. Though of course his broken hand throws that projection into question… which gets back to the point I was making in my first paragraph.)
I never said that Walker was a “bum” or a “marginal UT at best”. I said that he hadn’t hit much for several years (which he hadn’t), and that he needed to start hitting if he was going to have any kind of significant career (which he did), and that he was at that point a longshot (which he was). See here and here, for example. I said we should give him PT as long as we didn’t have any better prospects he’d be blocking, but not expect anything of him until he gave us a reason to do so. Well, he gave us a reason to do so. That happens sometimes, particularly with guys in their early 20s.
Show me a thread in which you wrote, "but if he hits well in his next <200 PAs, that would prove me completely wrong."
It’s not a matter of “proving me wrong”, it’s a matter of altering your expectations to conform to the best available information. Back before Walker started hitting, my position was that if he started hitting, he’d earn (and get) opportunities. See here and here. I wanted a full year of success at AAA before I got on board, but the complete and unexpected collapse of Iwamura pretty much removed the luxury of us waiting. Instead, we got three or four months of success for Walker (the tail end of 2010 and the start of 2011), followed by a need-based promotion, which fortunately he was able to handle.
And my point is that that means throwing a way a lot of PAs on the basis of MiL numbers and in the face of MLB reality.
Yes, it does.
Doing the right thing for the team is sometimes hard, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t the right thing. If the evidence suggests that you need to crawl out on that skinny little branch, then you either nut up or shut up and go home.
yet when people mention that Overbay dominated the minor, you write it off as being in a hitters park or league, yet its still minor league performance
sure, it was over a decade ago. but Pearce HAS regressed the last few seasons, including the minors, and has never put up any numbers in MLB.
lopez at nearly $3MM is NOT an improvement over a $5MM overbay for one big reason: playing time.
Context is key when analyzing minor league performance.
Lopez was pitching well in an environment that’s not especially friendly to pitchers, and he was doing it less than a year before we signed him. That has significant predictive value, and it’s a big part of why I liked our decision to sign him at the time.
Overbay was hitting well in an environment that significantly inflates the numbers of hitters, and he was doing it so long ago that the numbers carry almost no predictive value going forward. As such, they don’t really affect my opinion of him.
The difference between the two seems pretty obvious, I think.
Baseball season is back....
which I know because I’m digging around Cot’s contracts. We signed Javy for $775 for a year w/o an option. He signed with the Giants for $2.375. Sorry, we weren’t paying that. Period.
Smizik was wrong about that trade at the time and was even more wrong about the Octavio Dotel trade which you never see him bringing up for obvious reasons. You traded Lopez for whatever was the best offer. I’m pretty sure Smizik wasn’t privy to any of those negotiations.
Deck chairs, guys, deck chairs.
And my vote would be Bowker over Atkins. Someone gets hurt and Pearce is first recall because he can play various spots as well.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
i so agree with you
but i dont see a problem with atkins as a backup. if overbay goes down, bring up Pearce to start and keep atkins as the backup. or fields. or marte.
I would rather dump Doumit
And have Jaramillo as the backup catcher. Forget about Atkins and keep Bowker, Ciriaco and JRod. Injury prone Doumit can’t catch to begin with and I can’t see using up a roster spot just because he is due to make 5 mil. Just eat it already. If Jones or Diaz gets hurt would anyone want Doumit playing half the time in rightfield? Not me. I would rather see Bowker or eventually Lambo.
That's silly
He is a useful bench bat you are paying anyway. The potential to be a trade chip is there, and he is much better then JJ. That is like paying $5m for JJ. Dumping Doumit would be outright stupid. Again, not holding a roster spot because he makes $5m, but because he is in the top 5 or 6 best bats in training camp. True, he doesn’t really have a position anymore, but if you are going to make mindless dumps, then dump Jones, who is also nearly useless in the field, and does not his as well as Doumit.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Silly?
They have been trying to trade Doumit for 2 years now. With yet another injury, what makes you think they would now? At best they would recieve a low draft pick and have to pay most of his salary anyway. Jaramillo is a better backup, is hitting well this spring and we are talking one year with Sanchez probably due up next season anyway. Finally saying we should dump Jones instead is absurd. He hits righties very well and has true trade potential if he breaks out again like in his first year with the Bucs.
by primetime99 on Mar 15, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Jaramillo is a better backup…
No, he isn’t. Doumit is a much better all-around player, even after considering his defensive issues. That’s why he was starting over Jaramillo in the first place, before we traded for Snyder.
AMAZING!
You guys just can’t give up on Doumit. It’s laughable really. The guy is an injury prone horrible catcher. A few years ago he swung at a pitch and broke his wrist. Last year Young threw an absolute on the money strike to him from right field, ball takes one hop right threw his legs. He turns to get the ball and gets run over by the guy tagging up, concussion. When I say Jaramillo is a better backup I mean’t better on defense. Doumit cannot hit off the bench. He is the type of hitter who has to play a month straight just to get in some kind of groove. Oh look below, LOL, the Wizard of Woz is here to support Doumit! Makes no mention that Jones can play 1b also in case Overbay gets hurt.
by primetime99 on Mar 15, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Makes no mention that Jones can play 1b also in case Overbay gets hurt.
So can Pearce/Bowker
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Doumit is probably better at 1b then Jones
Jones can’t make the throw to 2b. If you want use that arguement, with the lowest level of defense qualifying as competent, then Doumit can play 3 positions, C, RF and 1B, so again, your agruement falls on its face.
AGAIN, I DON"T LIKE DOUMIT, BUT IT SILLY TO DUMP HIM JUST TO GET JJ ON THE ROSTER
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously...
you didn’t watch Doumit trying to play 1B last season.
I didn't say he was good
or even average, but if the qualification is that he has played some games there, then he fits.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Doumit.....
isn’t close to as good at first as Jones. Those two games against the Tigers last year were as much an indictment of the coaching staff as the player. Putting him out their the second game was borderline criminal.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
I didn't say he was good
or even average, but if the qualification is that he has played some games there, then he fits.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you had an argument until you said that, really.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 15, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I just went back and read that
I guess I was a little worked up, I recant that. Both are poor, but Doumit is poorer.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 16, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
The guy is an injury prone horrible catcher.
And yet, he’s still better than Jaramillo.
When I say Jaramillo is a better backup I mean’t better on defense.
Which would be a perfectly reasonable point if backup catchers never had to hit. Unfortunately for your position, they do, and Jaramillo has a .222/.284/.317 batting line across the last two seasons. As such, any runs he gains on Doumit on defense, he more than gives back on offense.
Doumit cannot hit off the bench. He is the type of hitter who has to play a month straight just to get in some kind of groove.
Doumit as a PH, career: .282/.346/.465
Makes no mention that Jones can play 1b also in case Overbay gets hurt.
You say that as though the ability to play first base is a rare or particularly valuable skill.
IB is important
When you have Cedeno and Alvarez throwing to you. Jones is way better at making a pick than Doumit. Doumit .282 career pinch hitter? Yeah 20 whole hits, wow. What the heck am I doing anyway? You are obviously one of those guys who refuses to ever be wrong about anything, so I’ll just say you are right.
Sorry for wasting your time. Doumit is the best catcher ever.
by primetime99 on Mar 15, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
yawn
really, so what suggests Doumit is not a good PH?
And there’s no point making a strawman argument for Doumit at 1B, because no one suggested he should replace Overbay.
And, if Overbay goes down, there’s always Pearce at Indy, who can certainly pick them. If you need someone to platoon with him, you got Bowker.
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
You are obviously one of those guys who refuese to ever be wrong about anything, so I’ll just say you are right.
Sorry for wasting your time. Doumit is the worst catcher and human being ever.
See anyone can play that game. You still haven’t proven anything, and now you are being juvenile. Nice debate strategy.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Wizard I knew you would see the light!
Never said he was a bad human being though. By the way Jaramillo is hitting .533 this spring. Why not give him a chance is all I’m saying. We know what we have in Doumit, a guy who gets constantly hurt. If we had things this boards way Neil Walker NEVER would have gotten a chance to play everyday.
by primetime99 on Mar 15, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Small Sample Size Success
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Prolonged Failure
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
IB is important When you have Cedeno and Alvarez throwing to you.
If that were true (and it may or may not be), Jones’s status as a below-average 1B defender shouldn’t be an argument in his favor.
Doumit .282 career pinch hitter? Yeah 20 whole hits, wow.
It’s a very small sample, yes. It’s also the best available evidence regarding your claim, and it’s signficantly better than the evidence you put forward in support of your claim, i.e. nothing. Mad? Build a better argument next time.
You are obviously one of those guys who refuses to ever be wrong about anything, so I’ll just say you are right.
Again: If you want me to back down on a point, you need to put forward a better argument than the one you’re making right now. Elevate your game.
heh
ill consider what your saying primetime, love what vlad brings to the table but sometimes he likes to refute a simple fans wishful thinking. now i havent read what you two are discussing above so ill stop there
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Face to foot style! How’d you like it?!?!
by Seven_Patch on Mar 15, 2011 11:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Heh, just agreeing with you. FYI it was primetime’s face and Vlad’s foot.
by Seven_Patch on Mar 16, 2011 9:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
College Education
You say that as though the ability to play first base is a rare or particularly valuable skill.
As a lefty, 1B was my position growing up. (I couldn’t find the plate from the mound.) I took a lot of pride in my defense as well as my bat and even received some accolades for my defensive play. When I got to college, I was immediately sent to RF which I perceived was a demotion until I realized what the coach was doing. I ended up starting in RF and even had a few assists. Even though it was many years ago, I’ll never forget the feeling of throwing out a runner trying to score from second.
Also
You imply that I often defend Doumit. I can’t ever remember defending him beofore. You have been a member of SB Nation for just over a month, hardly enough time to establish a pattern of my defending or attacking someone. I generally just snark. Unless this is just a new name and you are one of those multiple name/hide my identity guys. I hope that you are not, but your accusation seems strange from such a new member.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
pssst....
pirate21, anyone?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 15, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
nope.
common misconception, though.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 16, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes silly.
A. 2010
Jones v. RHP wOBA .337
Doumit v. RHP wOBA .363
Career numbers are closer, Jones with an edge. If Jones’ 2009 break out was real, then edge to him. If he is close to last year, then Doumit, by a significant amount.
B.
at best they would receive a low draft pick and have to pay most of his salary anyway
As opposed to your plan of paying his whole salary and receiving nothing in return, in exchange for having JJ play in the majors. Its not like Doumit is blocking anyone.
C. With Snyder’s injury history, I expect he will have a trip to the DL at some point, which would leave us with JJ and … who? Dusty Brown? That’s your plan, Dusty Brown on the ML roster?
D.
[Jones] has true trade potential if he breaks out again like in his first year with the Bucs.
If we are wishcasting here, why couldn’t Doumit break out? Jones has about 3 months of ML success, Doumit has years.
I don’t love Doumit, but dumping him is just silly.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Jaramillo ...
is horrible. I’ll be really disappointed to see him on the team this year.
Given the inevitable injuries to the starting catchers...
…prepare to be disappointed.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 2:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would rather dump Doumit And have Jaramillo as the backup catcher.
Deliberately losing games is considered unsporting, you know.
I like this whole idea
Other then his sweet tweets, nickname and overall likability, it doesn’t seem like there is much Wimbo can do that Ciriaco can’t. Both fast and can’t hit. It seems to me that he will be a useful bench piece. Boo on Atkins, though.
Plusses and minuses
Having a bench player with speed and the ability to play good defense makes sense. The problem is that Ciriaco refuses to take a walk and has little power. His batting average in his minor league career is 0.274 (not too bad). His OBP is 0.302. Hard to imagine.
Viva Clemente!
Ciriaco probably wouldn’t be substantially worse than Wimberly with the bat and appears to be much better with the glove.
I’d actually expect Ciriaco to be slightly better on offense, though neither is anything to write home about.
I was just about to post this..
Ciriaco is probably at least capable of hitting the ball over the fence, not to mention his performance this Spring has been much better than Wimberly’s.
To be honest
That is not exactly a debate that anyone ever wanted to be having.
#piratefanfun
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 15, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
bench
With a LHP starter, you’ve got a bench of Jones (LH), Doumit (S), Rodriguez®, Ciriaco® and Atkins® — before Atkins, you’ve already got 3 RH options — I think Atkins case would be hurt by the 2 utility players both being RH hitters.
With a RHP starter, you’ve got a bench of Snyder®, Diaz®, Rodriguez®, Ciriaco® and Atkins® — this leaves you no LH bat for late appearances against a RH reliever. If a team were to bring in a LH middle reliever, you could enter some of your RH bats. If they then bring in a RH closer, you’d have no LH bat on the bench late in the game.
I think the abundance of RH starters (and closers) would make it beneficial to carry Bowker as a LH bat on the bench with some pop — he’s not a dominant HR hitter, but he could change the game late with one swing of the bat against a RH pitcher. He could also plug into LF as a LHB if we want to give Tabata a day off vs. a RHP.
I think that, if Ciriaco is UTIL #2 (w/ Rodriguez), both of your utility guys being RH hitters leaves a need for another LH bat on the bench. IMO, I don’t think the FO plans to lose Bowker this quickly after the Lopez trade either.
"...UTIL #2..."
That’s pretty much a problem right there. I generally loathe the existence of UTIL #1, what the hell would we need UTIL #2 for?
I agree on Bowker
His lefthandedness would be useful if we were building a roster to win as many games as possible. In reality though I think Snyder starts 80 of the 120 games against righties leaving only 40 games where we have no left handed bench bat. Either way though I think Atkins brings nothing and Diaz and Bowker can both hit the ball over the fence off the bench on righty days where Doumit starts. My bench is Diaz/Jones, Snyder/Doumit, J-Rod, Ciriaco, and Bowker but I could live with just J-Rod and Pearce instead of Ciriaco.
Here's the real issue
Based on minor league stats Bowker looks better than Garrett Jones. Overall Bowker has an OPS of 871, Jones 762. In AAA Bowker had an OPS 971 and Jones had 782. That’s no guarantee that Bowker will be better in the majors, but there’s a reasonable chance that you’d rather have Bowker going forward than Jones.
Viva Clemente!
yet still a reasonable chance that Bowker does absolutely nothing in the bigs, while jones HAS had some success
which is why Overbay was signed to play 1B instead of the pearce/bowker platoon
yet still a reasonable chance that Bowker does absolutely nothing in the bigs, while jones HAS had some success
Which means nothing, going forward.
By that logic
Bowker’s AAA numbers don’t mean anything going forward, either.
Just as you can translate MiL numbers to MLB, you can go in reverse. Add Jones’ MLB numbers to his AAA numbers, and I think you’ll get a bit more than .782 OPS (seeing as how his MLB OPS is .781, which I’m pretty sure translates to significantly more in AAA performance).
Which isn’t to say that Bowkers doesn’t figure to do better than Jones going forward (he’s younger, among other things). It’s just to say that your argument doesn’t really mean anything.
Perhaps I phrased that poorly.
The fact that Jones’s good numbers came primarily in MLB while Bowker’s came primarily in AAA makes virtually no difference when formulating a forward projection for both players. I.e. Jones’s status as a “proven veteran” isn’t actually worth anything, and is a terrible reason for favoring him over Bowker, if it comes down to one or the other.
I hear you
It’s particularly poor reasoning given that the guy had 3 amazing months, 3-4 respectable months, and 2 awful months – if he’d hit like he did in April-June ‘10 for all 9 months of his Pirates career, then you say, OK the guy “got it” on some level, and there’s reason to think it might continue. But instead you have a flukey half season and a mediocre season that trended downward – that’s not a “proven” anything.
[Although on preview I realize that all white angus said was “had some success,” not “proven vet.” But I think the point stands – the guy may have shown that he’s not impossibly overmatched at the MLB level – as some decent MiL hitters are – but nothing more]
i think Vlad is saying we should always give the younger "prospects" a chance over an average veteran who probably wont be a great player
even though the players he likes, i.e. pearce and bowker, are not getting any younger and have had multiple chances in the show.
yet true young players who havent had a shot, like ciriaco, stink and shouldnt be on the field.
it kind of sounds like favoritism instead of metrics, but i could be mistaken.
no offense, of course
None taken.
i think Vlad is saying we should always give the younger “prospects” a chance over an average veteran who probably wont be a great player
Generally speaking, this is true.
even though the players he likes, i.e. pearce and bowker, are not getting any younger and have had multiple chances in the show.
Those “chances” tell you relatively little about the ability of Pearce and Bowker to hit in the majors, compared to their respective minor league performances in recent seasons. Hence my position.
yet true young players who havent had a shot, like ciriaco, stink and shouldnt be on the field.
Ciriaco is entering his seventh pro season, and in spite of having generally played in good offensive environments, he’s got a career .302 OBP and has only posted a full-season OPS over .700 once. His youth suggests that he’s likely to improve going forward, but he needs to show a hell of a lot of improvement to get up to ML standard, and based on what he’s done so far I’m not confident that he’ll be able to do it. It’s not impossible, but given our other internal options, I’m not sure it’s worth investing the time and effort to find out.
i know ciriaco hasnt impressed with the bat in the minors. the stats prove this.
and bowker/pearce have put up good numbers in the minors. and im not saying ciriaco deserves a shot simply because he hasnt had one.
my point is this: both pearce and bowker have had multiple tastes of the big leagues but both have not secured regular spots with a major league club. why? maybe because the teams’ already have established players, or maybe because of injuries, or (IMO) they just arent good enough to warrant it.
that last sentence sounds like im slamming them, but thats what i believe the pirates and giants think about these two players.
also, bowker and pearce play a different position than ciriaco, and ciriaco needs to be looked at differently because of his skill set. hes a middle infielder with a good glove, very good speed, and is now learning multiple spots. his bat SHOULD be looked at differently than the pearce’s and bowker’s of the baseball world. if ciriaco was better than average with the bat, the Dbacks may not have ever let him go in the first place.
that last sentence sounds like im slamming them, but thats what i believe the pirates and giants think about these two players.
That could very well be true, but from the evidence available to me, it looks like both are mistaken. It probably sounds crazy and prideful to challenge the professionals’ judgment on something like this, and I could very well end up being wrong on it. But that’s where my analysis is leading me, and if you can’t trust your own brain, you might as well give up.
also, bowker and pearce play a different position than ciriaco, and ciriaco needs to be looked at differently because of his skill set. hes a middle infielder with a good glove, very good speed, and is now learning multiple spots.
Very true. The offensive baseline is much lower for a good-glove SS than for a RF/1B. Even after accounting for that, I don’t think he has the bat to be a starter, but as I noted above, I could be wrong about that.
Hard to believe ...
that on such a bad team that there is no place or Bowker, Pearce or Marte.
That's what happens...
…when you bring a guy like Atkins to camp.
If you aren’t prepared to have a guy end up on the roster, you shouldn’t sign him and then hold open competitions during the spring.
Ahhh yes,
This is what really happens when we have “competitions” in Spring Training. The manager favorite gets the edge, and in a SSS, anything can happen.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
on the positive side
Atkins has done everything he can to not make the team… if he does make it, it will be because of the manager favorite getting the SSS line to keep him…
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
he hasn’t done anything to lose the job. I mentioned on another post that this may be a bit of a litmus test. In future years, Hurdle may be able to refer to this situation when recruiting free agents. He could say, “I promised Atkins a real shot, made him the favorite, and he won the job. You can trust me when I tell you something.” Not to say that would make up for losing a valuable piece, but in the grand scheme of things, it may be worth something.
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 15, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
i see the point
although I’d much rather not lose a piece for Atkins…
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
i dont see the big deal. its not like atkins is competing for a full time job.
losing bowker wouldnt hurt that much, would it? fields and marte will be in AAA and you wont be losing pearce.
not a big deal.
by white angus on Mar 15, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
its probably not
but i still think Bowker is the only in that group (Atkins/Fields/Marte/Bowker) who could be a solid major league piece for the next 4-5 years. As such, I’d rather not lose Bowker for Atkins.
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
im not saying keep atkins, i just dont think its a big deal
neither one of these guys will make a dent in the starting lineup unless someone gets badly hurt. i liked the bowker addition last season, but if hes not in the picture i dont see the big deal.
losing bowker wouldnt hurt that much, would it?
Given that we’re paying five million dollars for Overbay to deliver Bowker-type production, yeah, it’d sting a little.
which, once again, bowker has NOT put up.
overbay, for better or worse, is a major leaguer who has put up decent numbers for a period of time. bowker has absolutely NOT put up any major league stats.
the FO got bowker last season and determined that he was not a starter at two different positions. we should be fine with this.
Bowker HAS put up major league stats. They’ve just been bad ones.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 2:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
overbay, for better or worse, is a major leaguer who has put up decent numbers for a period of time.
Which would be great if we were traveling back in time to 1999 to re-play those games. We aren’t, though, and Overbay’s past ML performance guarantees nothing more than Bowker’s track record at AAA does.
White Angus scouts using:
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 15, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
yes it does, vlad
overbay HAS produced at the Major league level, bowker has not. there have been hundreds of good minor leaguers that couldnt translate that success to the majors, bowker may end up being one of them. overbay has been in the show for a decade for a reason: hes better than alot of players at his position.
overbay has now played for 4 franchises. other than being replaced by Prince Fielder, he has kept his job every other year because teams had nothing better to replace him with.
the Jays let him walk because they are going young and think adam lind can handle the job.
how many 1B could have taken Overbay’s job the last decade or so??? im guessing at least a dozen or two prospects along the way, and if you get technical about it, hundreds that could have been aquired by Overbay’s bosses.
overbay has been in the majors because he IS average. he does NOT hurt his team and he could be one of those additions a team makes to make the core better…
bowker and pearce, whom i want to succeed, have not shown this in the major leagues. do they deserves chances? of course they do. they are talented guys. but would the pirates be better at first base with them instead of overbay? i say, nay.
The problem with Overbay in a nutshell isn't that he won't make us better now
Overbay is a below average offensive/above average defensive first baseman on the downslope of his career.
Best case scenario, absolute best, is that he is the 20th or so best first baseman in baseball this year and there is a sizable chance that he will crater. He also likely has no future in Pittsburgh beyond this season.
So yes, he has a track record and he is a useful piece for the right team but, as he doesn’t project for anything beyond this year, the PBC are not that team because it does nothing to make us better in a potential contending season. Its more valuable to the team going forward to see whether Pearce/Bowker’s MiLB equivalents DO transfer than to dump ABs into players like Overbay.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 16, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
then why isnt the team putting bowker/pearce at 1B???
im almost positive that 29 other teams would do the exact same thing as our FO.
the pirates dont see pearce or bowker as future fixtures at 1B
and im pretty sure most if not all teams would agree with them. signing overbay to a ONE YEAR deal doesnt hurt the team in the long run because he is NOT blocking anyone from taking that position.
the pirates obviously see that they had to look elsewhere to get 1B help because, quite frankly, in house at that position looks pretty grim. the best future option today, not including Pedro, at 1B looks to be Curry.
Pearce and Bowker both have nonzero possibilities of starting for or at least contributing to a good baseball team in two years. Overbay does not.
I don’t know how much clearer that could be, really.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 16, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
there have been hundreds of good minor leaguers that couldnt translate that success to the majors
Similarly, there are hundreds of good major leaguers who weren’t able to sustain their past success, due to age-related decline. I’m not sure why you assume that Bowker is more likely to fall into the former category than Overbay is to fall into the latter.
That’s really the crux of our disagreement.
of course Overbay could regress further
ive never said he would bat .312 again. but i do believe the pirates could have done alot worse than Lyle at 1B, which i believe would have been Bowker/Pearce. i dont believe either one can succeed in a platoon situation a la Matt Diaz.
I have a bad feeling ...
I think they’re going to carry Doumit and Jaramillo. Managers hate to use their backup catchers in pinch-hitting situations and I’m sure that Hurdle’s been told by the front office to get Doumit some showcase at-bats.
I agree that it’s wasteful, but I’d bet it happens anyways.
http://www.whygavs.com
http://mlb.fanhouse.com
this would be horrible
and this is the one scenario, where I’d rather Doumit just get dumped…
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
the counterpoint to it being
I hope the FO is not stupid, and if they cant trade Doumit, I hope they carry him as the backup catcher and send JJ down to AAA.
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
does anyone know how injury insruance payments work in mlb?
I know in basketball when guys are out the insurance company picks up like 75% of the contract. does anyone have specific #s? Is that how it works in MLB?
RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.
"I'D BE A CHEF"
-TONY PLUSH
The short answer is that it's complicated.
The amount of coverage is variable (usually above 50%, always below full), depending on stuff like how comprehensive the policy is (many won’t cover new injuries that are related to previous injuries, like the elbow on a pitcher who’s had TJ), the amount of time the player must be disabled before the coverage kicks in, and the cost to the team. Insurance is generally also limited to the first few years of a contract. It used to be three years as the standard, but that may have changed when I wasn’t paying attention.
Rodriguez, Bowker and Marte makes a good deal of sense for the bench. Even though you’ll never mistake me for a big fan of Bowker or Marte. But for what we have, that’s decent.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 11:31 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I wish Bowker would get a chance
His walk rate jumping from 08 to 09 makes me feel like he could be an asset. And poor Pearce, talk about a series of unfortunate events (Delwyn Young would be so bad at defense he hurt other people.)
So just to be clear, the Pirates are going to carry two middle infielders who can’t really hit and a guy whose OPS was .562 and .650 the last two years on their bench?
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
Bowker
been a big fan since the trade, and hope he can put it together… too bad he didnt get the Brandon Moss extended look…
So just to be clear, the Pirates are going to carry two middle infielders who can’t really hit and a guy whose OPS was .562 and .650 the last two years on their bench?
Well, I was hoping that they carry Rodriguez, and send Ciriaco to AAA. Reports suggest Ciriaco has the upper hand, which (imo) is unfortunate- I havent heard much at all about Rodriguez though- chances are he’ll be offered back at the end of ST (just my gut feeling)… I’d prefer to have both Rodriguez and Bowker ahead of the other options…
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Trying Ciriaco doesn't mean he sticks
There will be an injury at some point. Knowing that a player can fill in at multiple positions is useful. Since he’s on the 40-man roster, he can be called up from Indy when needed. If you don’t roster Rodriguez and Bowker (especially Bowker) they’ll be gone.
Viva Clemente!
yeah
as i said before, I’d really rather see both Rodriguez and Bowker rostered over all other options…
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
It is not....
clear that Rodriguez can’t hit. If you meant Ciriaco and Cedeno point taken. But, that’s the other reason to make sure Ciriaco is versatile.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
I don't think...
Rodriguez and Ciriaco both make the roster. If Ciriaco makes it I think Rodriguez gets sent back or kept through trade. At this point I think the bench will be:
Ciriaco
Doumit
Diaz
Bowker
Atkins/Marte
I think Pearce gets sent down to “work on things at 3B.” He’ll be the first one called up when someone is hurt or traded.
He's generally not stupid...
…but has done enough stupid things in isolation that I don’t think I can rule it out at this point.
but thats one person's opinion of NH, and it doesnt make it right.
just because WE think the front office is wrong doesnt make us right.
Since there's no jury here...
isn’t being right relative? I mean if I think I’m right then aren’t I right? It’s kind of like “it’s not a lie if you really believe it…” Paraphrased from the great George Costanza.
but thats one person’s opinion of NH
It may only be one person’s opinion, but it’s mine, and as such I kind of have to favor it, y’know?
i agree with this
but i also agree with Slick, that I think only one of Rodriguez and Ciriaco makes it…
what do you make of the fact that we’ve heard so little of Rodriguez through the spring?
by BurgherKing on Mar 15, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I make very little of it
He’s had 15 AB, and more will be available going forward. It’s still early.
Viva Clemente!
15 ABs
I think that’s a bad thing, and I sincerely hope you’re right. I hope that he gets to play almost every game here on, rotating one of the regulars and plugging him in their positions.
I just have a feeling (like Slick) that he got discounted a bit early. Again, I hope I’m wrong…
You picked up on my hunch...
I think his limited at bats are a bad thing. They’ve spent more time trying to find out what they have in Wimbley and Ciriaco that I think Rodriguez will only make it if the other two show they can’t (Wimbo has already done that IMO). Then there is the Huntington comment that seemed eerily foreshadowing in which he said he would make every effort to trade for Rodriguez before sending him back. I hope I’m reading too much into the comment but I just have a feeling.
Im also fine with Charlies bench.
Bowker and Marte are interesting, but they’ve already had a ton of ML opportunities already. Rodriguez is the more important piece for me, b/c he hasn’t received a major league look yet.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 1:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
i dont think Rodriguez gets sent back to Cleveland
and it wouldnt surprise me if both he and ciriaco make the team. i believe the FO is waiting for Cedeno to excel one last time, and if he doesnt Rodriguez gets the first nod.
From Dunlap's chat:
Andrew: Hey Colin, I was wondering how you think Atkins is doing. I, for one, was excited to see him in camp with the Pirates. Do you think he will make the team?
Colin Dunlap: It would seem Atkins is squarely on the fence, as he is a true corner guy. Also, he is Clint Hurdle’s guy — don’t discount that. But, all that said, if someone held me down today and made me say “yes” or “no” on Ciriaco, I’d say he might already have one of the bench spots sewn up. So that is one gone. And he can play some third. Also, don’t be surprised if you still see Jones at 1B in some instances when Overbay needs the day off. In essence, it could come down to (and this depends on the amount of catchers they carry) of Atkins fighting it out with Steve Pearce for a spot.
Full transcript here, with q’s about Ciriaco, Bowker, Pearce…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Pearce isn't making it....
his having options means he’s going down and will be the first guy called up when there is an injury. I’m fine with that. I’d rather see them keep Bowker to start the season and not lose him on waivers (hypothetically).
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Agreed.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 15, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think this will be the case because of the option...
and I really think NH wants to keep Bowker on the team.
Dtoddwin, good to see you back. It’s been a while…where you been?
I’d much, much rather run with an eight-man bullpen than have Atkins on the roster. If Hurdle’s going to be loyal to him because he had a good year for him at Coors Field, that’s a huge shame. Atkins is a crumby hitter and inept in the field. I don’t want him anywhere near PNC Park.
Good point
I mean, I’d rather just have a better bench player, but even another inning-eater in the pen would do us more good than Atkins is likely to.
i dont think its a guarantee that Atkins makes the team
other than a homer, he hasnt done anything. he looks slow out there too. i think the FO would love to see Pearce make the team with Fields and Marte starting out in AAA.
i truly believe that signing atkins was done for hurdle but that doesnt mean hes on the team.
I like Ciriaco
And adding CF to his resume makes him that much more valuable. It never hurts to have a good glove slap hitter with some speed on the bench. The sad part is he may already be better than our regular SS.
Add me to the list of people who would love to see Bowker or Pearce make the team over Atkins. I think his past performance in Colorado is clouding the judgement of those who want to keep him around now.
Right
And ask yourself the question, “What role might Garret Atkins play in the Pirates of 2013?” Unless you think the evidence of the last few years is an anomaly, the answer has to be “None.” I suspect that Atkins makes the team only if the front office thinks it’s important for someone else to get regular reps in AAA.
Viva Clemente!
Because he's been a very good hitter at AAA...
…and seems to have the physical tools to succeed in MLB. Just needs some more adjustment time (IMO).
how do you get adjustment time while only playing against RHP's?
how do you get better being a part timer??? diaz is a part timer; we already know what we are getting with him. blossoming at a late age is a rare occurance which you yourself have stated in the past.
i would love for bowker to succeed. he does look better this spring than he did at the end of last season, more comfortable maybe?
how do you get better being a part timer???
Technique work during coaching sessions, plus adjustments to your mental approach, I guess.
no way
i’d hate to get all dan jenkins in here, but gameday is the best way to improve… you can teach clement for 3 months straight but obviously it didnt help him recognize a curveball.
i feel ashamed that i brung that up.
sigh.
you can teach clement for 3 months straight but obviously it didnt help him recognize a curveball.
Clement, I think, just doesn’t have what it takes to spot the breaking ball out of a pitcher’s hand. You could have a guy do nothing but throw him curves all day, or hire three and have them go in shifts, and still at the end of the day he wouldn’t be able to make any skill gains in that area.
.306/.398/.510
In an extremely limited sample size last fall once he finally got a chance to play every day (September 15th – October 2nd) doesn’t hurt his case either when you combine it with his AAA numbers.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Mar 15, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Career numbers
Jones vs RHP 746 PA… .854 OPS
Jones vs LHP 350 PA… .630 OPS
Bowker vs RHP 533 PA… .722 OPS
Bowker vs LHP 57 PA… .309 OPS
Overbay vs RHP 3358 PA… 838 OPS
Overbay vs LHP 1087 PA… .709 OPS
Diaz vs RHP 849 PA… .710 OPS
Diaz vs LHP 797 PA… .907 OPS
Pearce vs RHP 287 PA… .606 OPS
Pearce vs LHP 129 PA… .929 OPS
Bowker can’t hit RHP well enough to command playing time ahead of Jones or Overbay…and can’t hit LHP at all…let alone well enough to beat out Pearce or Diaz.
Bowker’s career vs. RHP is even worse than Jones’s 2010 second half vs. RHP, if I recall.
As with Andy Marte, Bowker is a good concept, but probably not someone I’d want to give playing time too in 2011. If hes going to make the 25 roster, we really should have brought in another LH bat..
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 6:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bowker has 240 MLB PAs in 09/10
Which is after he had the “Hey, I should try and walk more” adjustment period between 2008 and 2009. Are those numbers great? Not at all, but it’s way, way too early to write him off after a third of a season’s worth of PAs.
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
by CW on Mar 15, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Still, we might have had a bench guy like Mark Kotsay, Branyan, Randy Winn, Eric Hinske, Brad Hawpe (good bounceback candidate because he played through fractured ribs in ’10).
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 15, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Eric Hinske
Given the stink he raised the last time he was here, this seems unlikely to me. We wouldn’t want him back, and even if we did, he wouldn’t want to play here.
The only guy out of that list whom I like at all going forward is Branyan, and we killed that possibility when we signed Overbay.
other than light tower power, branyan offers little to the bucs
hes a poor runner, a poor fielder AND hes older than overbay.
you can bring up his stats, and his OPS looks nice, but how does having
a DH in your lineup help?
he’s bounced around for a reason: hes a hired gun. especially for teams out of competition.
you can bring up his stats, and his OPS looks nice, but how does having a DH in your lineup help?
On a per-PA basis, he’s a really, really good hitter. Walks and power is a pretty limited skill set, but he’s got enough of both to be an above-average 1B, particularly as part of a platoon. I mean, as of right now he’s 14th in the entire history of baseball in AB per HR, at 14.9. That’s just crazy.
his nickname at one time with the Indians i believe was "rally killer"
and im not slamming branyan, im just defending overbay…
Trade
Doumit and Cedeno and get them out of here.
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