Well, we got eight batters finished for our fan projections, so I figured now would be as good a time as any to see how our individual projections would most likely play out on the field in terms of the offensive stat that means the most to a teams success, runs scored. I'm assuming Garret Jones numbers will equal Matt Diaz numbers for platoon purposes and assuming very slightly better pitcher batting than last year, (my pitcher slash line is .100/.136/.126). I threw the numbers into http://lineupsimulator.com/ after transforming each line into a number, (this took forever). I also threw the numbers into http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py which is less intricate but you don't have to type in at bats and I thought it would be nice to have a second source. Our expected runs scored over the year if our lineup stays healthy and performs exactly to fans expectations is, (drum roll please)
by lineupsimulator- 640 over the course of the season, which would be 53 runs more than last year, THE NUMBERS I USED ARE AT THE BOTTOM, DON'T READ THEM UNLESS YOU ARE REALLY INTERESTED. Other than PA off by a decent bit, I thought that the numbers were very good and followed the projections just about to the T. This amount seems disappointing as it would only move us from 30th to 29th in the league in offense, and it just doesn't seem right. By contrast, the baseballmusings said that said projections, (using only OBP and SLG) would result in much more runs being scored. I would seriously like any informed opinion on what mistakes I might have made or if these projections generally are so drastically different in terms of run amounts. Thank you very much.
Jose Tabata 609 68 122 42 6 9 30 8
Andrew McCutchen 599 73 112 39 6 20 35 11
Lyle Overbay 590 77 100 31 2 21 1 0
Pedro Alvarez 580 76 92 32 2 33 2 1
Garret Jones 570 64 86 39 2 23 9 4
Neil Walker 560 49 100 36 3 17 4 4
Chris Snyder 550 74 84 30 1 13 1 1
Ronny Cedeno 540 37 110 12 1 10 14 4
pitcher 530 22 48 1 0 2 1 0




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