FanPost

Pirates RS projections based on Community Projections


Well, we got eight batters finished for our fan projections, so I figured now would be as good a time as any to see how our individual projections would most likely play out on the field in terms of the offensive stat that means the most to a teams success, runs scored.  I'm assuming Garret Jones numbers will equal Matt Diaz numbers for platoon purposes and assuming very slightly better pitcher batting than last year, (my pitcher slash line is .100/.136/.126).  I threw the numbers into http://lineupsimulator.com/ after transforming each line into a number, (this took forever).  I also threw the numbers into http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py which is less intricate but you don't have to type in at bats and I thought it would be nice to have a second source.  Our expected runs scored over the year if our lineup stays healthy and performs exactly to fans expectations is, (drum roll please)

 

by lineupsimulator- 640 over the course of the season, which would be 53 runs more than last year, THE NUMBERS I USED ARE AT THE BOTTOM, DON'T READ THEM UNLESS YOU ARE REALLY INTERESTED.  Other than PA off by a decent bit, I thought that the numbers were very good and followed the projections just about to the T.  This amount seems  disappointing as it would only move us from 30th to 29th in the league in offense, and it just doesn't seem right.  By contrast, the baseballmusings said that said projections, (using only OBP and SLG) would result in much more runs being scored.  I would seriously like any informed opinion on what mistakes I might have made or if these projections generally are so drastically different in terms of run amounts.  Thank you very much.

 

 

 

Jose Tabata          609    68    122    42    6    9    30    8
Andrew McCutchen    599    73    112    39    6    20    35    11
Lyle Overbay    590    77    100    31    2    21    1    0
Pedro Alvarez    580    76    92    32    2    33    2    1
Garret Jones    570    64    86    39    2    23    9    4
Neil Walker          560    49    100    36    3     17    4    4
Chris Snyder    550    74    84    30    1    13    1    1
Ronny Cedeno    540    37    110    12    1    10    14    4
pitcher          530    22    48    1    0    2    1     0

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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