"The Brain, the Brawn and the Dirtball."
by Slick1 on Mar 28, 2011 1:30 AM EDT
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PrintThat was a quote from Dejan Kovacevik's latest article on Pirate prospects Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie and Tony Sanchez. This piece is an example of Dejan at his finest. It's a really good read on three key players in the Pirates' system.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/11087/1135306-63.stm
Most of us can agree that the draft has been a strength of Neal Huntington though some have been disappointed that the Pirates minor league system has not been rated higher by many of the respected publications. Baseball America rated the system at nineteen recently. But if you want to get an idea what kind of talent is in the system take a look at the follwing quote:
Jim Callis, Baseball America's executive editor, calls the current trio "as good as any" in the Pittsburgh system since 1998, when Aramis Ramirez, Kris Benson and Chad Hermansen all ranked among that publication's top 13 overall prospects. Callis also calls the trio better than that of 2009, when Pedro Alvarez ranked 12th, Andrew McCutchen 33rd, Jose Tabata 75th.
Pretty high praise; especially so given the latter group currently forms the core of the 2011 Pirates. Let's hope the new big three can develop as planned and get to Pittsburgh sooner rather than later.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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if a few of the prospects have breakout seasons in 2011...
and then adding rendon or cole or purke, the organizational ranking would skyrocket. thats the biggest difference between the pirates and the top farm systems like the royals and the rays.
the royals had 5 or so breakthrough players last year. the pirates had alex presley.
the royals had 5 or so breakthrough players last year. the pirates had alex presley.
And Walker. No one saw that coming except for fusilijerry88.
But he doesn't count
when prospects are rated.
Actually, if Owens really steps up this year, he’ll also not count towards next year’s rankings, because he’ll be a major leaguer.
I don’t think it’s a conspiracy or anything, but I think it’s pretty common (the last couple years at least) for Pirate minor leaguers to be underranked, then break out and reach the big team, all without disturbing the low ranking of the org as a whole. Of the 4 young guys, only PA got sufficient love as a prospect (granting that NFW lost his ranking on merit), but they’ve proved themselves as MLBers. And I expect at least another 2-3 examples of that over the next couple years.
Owens barely even counts towards this years ranking. BA wouldn’t have put him in the top 200 overall.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, no one is paying any attention to a Bryan Morris or Andrew Lambo either. If either of them does well, it will sneak up on a lot of people because they aren’t top 100.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 28, 2011 1:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Of the 4 young guys, only PA got sufficient love as a prospect
Not sure I agree with that. Tabata was BA’s #27 in 2007, #37 in 2008, and #75 in 2009 (even after he’d put up a .630 OPS for the Yankees and then gotten traded for pennies on the dollar the year before). That seems like a good bit of love to me.
Similarly, Cutch was BA’s #50 in 2006, #13 in 2007, #14 in 2008, and #33 in 2009. BA doesn’t put guys in their top 50 unless they like them quite a bit…
My interpretation of Tabata's numbers is different
The guy was a legit top-5 RoY candidate, and he was only the 75th best prospect 2 months earlier (or is it 14 months?)?
For Cutch, I guess I’d forgotten the 2 years in the teens – I recalled the 33, which struck me as low for a 5-tool guy who’s done nothing but succeed.
but he never had that breakout season that people thought he would have
for a player to jump in the prospect standings they really need to dominate, not stay “on par”.
its not a slam against the Cutch’s of the world, just a probably truth. if starling marte dominates altoona and adds power to his game, he will jump up to a possible top 20 prospect. until then, hes a decent one.
The guy was a legit top-5 RoY candidate…
He finished 8th in the NL voting. There were a total of fourteen guys between both leagues who drew more votes than he did (i.e. one). And of course, the majority of the players on the list weren’t ML rookies in 2011, and even for the ones who were, BA’s list is more about eventual peak value than about immediate impact.
(or is it 14 months?)?
It’s 14. He went from 75 to off the list after putting up a .293/.357/.406 line between AA and AAA. You could make a case for keeping him on the list, based on that performance, but the margin between the #75 guy and the #101 guy is very small.
Purke stock.....
dropping like a rock. Velocity down, has not been impressive his last few outings according to Keith Law and others.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Others...
seemed to be concerned that it is more than that.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @hammerspeaks
Could very well be.
But personally, I wouldn’t freak out about it yet. Plenty of time for that later, right?
Interesting article
Anyone else think it was a little strange that DK more or less called Allie a jerk?
He walks and talks like the kid who took your lunch money at school just to show he could.
I understand that’s he’s trying to contrast Allie’s toughness with Taillon’s more “cerebral” personality but he ended up just making Allie seem like a brute. Which very well may be true but it’s a curious choice for a hometown piece trying to drum up enthusiasm about new young players.
Perhaps DK
had his lunch money taken away on a few occasions…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 28, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Just last week, he took DK's per diem and gave him a swirly
Just to show he could.
by maguro on Mar 28, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Actually,
in reading the whole thing, I think that it’s more to describe a swagger, with an intimidating look.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 28, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I get that
just seemed like a weird way to present that.
There’s lots of assholes in sports but usually the hometown writers try to gently work around that fact.
I thought this
was about Ryan Braun for some reason. Sorry to pick nits, but its “brawn.”
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 28, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions
I figured Morgan was the dirtball
but couldn’t think of any brains on MIL
by BarryJT on Mar 28, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
could be brian?
Brian Shouse maybe? He’s gone but brains are also missing…
From the article:
Not much came of Benson and Hermansen, so caution is advised.
Yeah, 200 ML starts with a 100 ERA+ for Benson. Not much at all.
The piece as a whole is pretty good.
I just kind of resent seeing Benson’s career written off that lightly.
How heavily should it have been written off?
In the context of the article, not much came of Kris Benson relative to his prospect standing in 1998.
In the context of the article, not much came of Kris Benson relative to his prospect standing in 1998.
Well, let’s think about that a bit. BA had Benson ranked as their #7 overall prospect in 1998. Here are their #7 overall prospects from other years, and what they went on to do:
1990: Todd Zeile. 16-year career, primarily as a 3B, with a 103 OPS+ in 8649 career PA. No All-Star appearances, and never led his league in anything.
1991: Ivan Rodriguez. Still active, future HOF catcher if the PED police don’t shut the door in his face.
1992: Wil Cordero. Ex-Buc, notorious wife-beater. 14-year career as an OF/SS/1B, with a 95 OPS+ in 4738 career PA. One All-Star appearance, one Silver Slugger award, both in 1994. Never led his league in anything.
1993: Todd Van Poppel. Another ex-Buc. 11-year career, with half as a crappy starter and half as a sporadically decent-ish reliever. 80 ERA+ in 907 career innings.
1994: Manny Ramirez. Still active, future HOF OF/DH. Not a complete player, but boy could he ever hit.
1995: Charles Johnson. Strong defender with a solid bat in his good years. As of today, the last notable African-American catcher. 12-year career, 97 OPS+ in 4385 PA. Two All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, one WS ring.
1996: Karim Garcia. Journeyman OF and long-time benchie. 10-year career, 82 OPS+ in 1560 PA. Probably the only guy on this list ever taken in an expansion draft.
1997: Todd Walker. 12-year career, mostly as a “2B”. 5055 PA, 98 OPS+. Never made an All-Star team or won an award, never led his league in anything.
1998: Kris Benson. Decent starter when he wasn’t hurt. 9-year career (not including seasons on the DL), 100 ERA+ in 1243 2/3 IP. Never made an All-Star team or won an award, never led his league in anything.
1999: Ryan Anderson. Towering lefty, hurt his arm and never pitched in the majors. Currently working as a chef.
2000: Sean Burroughs. Little League World Series star and son of Jeff. Notoriously not included in the Giles trade, at SD’s request. Never developed power, out of the majors at 26 (though he showed up in camp with Arizona this year, after a four-year absence from affiliated ball). 90 OPS+ in 1690 PA.
2001: CC Sabathia. Kicks ass, takes names. May not be HOF material yet, but definitely on the right path. Four All-Star games and one Cy, and still only 30 this year.
2002: Joe Mauer. Best all-around catcher since Johnny Bench.
2003: Brandon Phillips. Failed Indians shortstop prospect turned moderately-successful Reds 2B. 93 OPS+ in 3691 PA. One All-Star game, two Gold Gloves, still a productive regular.
2004: Kaz Matsui. NPB star, but game mostly didn’t translate to the US. 82 OPS+ in 2555 PA, probably back in Japan for good.
2005: Scott Kazmir. Better career than Victor Zambrano? Two-time All-Star, led AL in Ks in 2007, but awful last year and looking pretty done this spring after arm problems. 106 ERA+ in 1020 1/3 IP.
Everybody after that looks pretty good (Billingsley, Longoria, Kershaw, Brett Anderson, Posey, and Aroldis Chapman), but I think it’s kind of early to say too much definitive about any of those guys.
So, would it have been nice if Benson had turned into a star? Yeah. But could we have done worse? Absolutely.
The point was...
…that by the standards of other #7 overall prospects, we didn’t do too badly by ending up with Benson’s career. Even in a slot as high as that, you’ve got basically a one-in-three shot at a star/superstar, a one-in-three shot at a productive non-star, and a one-in-three shot at a total bust.
If we expected more from Benson, it’s our own fault for having unrealistic expectations.
Incidentally
This kind of reinforces the point I was trying to make up above. Obviously it’s way, way too early to project career arcs for Cutch or Tabata. But they both are already ahead of 1/3 of prospects ranked #7, and neither was ever ranked better than 13. Cutch looks very likely to be better than 2/3 of guys ranked #7.
Projection is very, very far from a science, but my point is that the people making rankings thought, for some reason, that Lars Anderson was a much better prospect than Cutch in 2009. Which doesn’t give me a lot of faith in their assessments.
the people making rankings thought, for some reason, that Lars Anderson was a much better prospect than Cutch in 2009. Which doesn’t give me a lot of faith in their assessments.
Based on the information available at the time, I think that was a justifiable call. Lars had been very good in 2008, and was young for his leagues at 20 as well. You need to discount the Lancaster numbers somewhat due to park factors, but it was still a very good performance for a player of his age and experience.
At that time, Cutch was a good defender at a more difficult position, and he was a bit more advanced, but he hadn’t shown any real power yet and he’d only stolen bases at a 64% success rate the year before.
Fortunately for us, he’s taken several steps forward since then, even as Anderson has fallen back.
This is a good point and one thing that I’ve been meaning to mention when the Rudy Owens / Zach Duke comparison comes up. Hopefully Owens is going to be better than Duke, and he certainly has the tools to be, but Duke was a pretty good starting pitcher for many years whose career would have looked a lot better if he hadn’t been saddled with such crappy defensive teams. Owens could certainly turn out to be better than Duke, but comparing Owens to Duke is not necessarily a slight. For any non-elite prospect to become a decent regular for many years is actually a pretty good outcome.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Mar 28, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
im sorry but theres no evidence that Duke would have pitched better with a better defense
other pitchers excelled here, sort of, with the same crappy defenders behind them.
you put Duke in boston and he still may have the highest BAA in the league.
im sorry but theres no evidence that Duke would have pitched better with a better defense
The fact that he enjoyed a career year in the one and only season when we had a statistically above-average defense isn’t persuasive?
you could argue that Duke was successful in year one because of his newness to the league
his other half season of decentness, you would have a better argument.
however, a good pitcher could also overcome a poor defense by actually pitching better on occasion. ohlendorf pitched better despite having the same defense. same goes for mcdonald. and probably a few more.
his other half season of decentness, you would have a better argument.
That is, in fact, the season I was using in my argument. His fluky rookie half-season is so obviously anomalous in so many ways that it doesn’t really bear consideration of that sort.
ohlendorf pitched better despite having the same defense.
Ohlendorf has been fortunate the last two years, which isn’t the same thing as having a repeatable skill. For his career, his xFIP is only 0.19 higher than his ERA. He doesn’t have some kind of magic fairy dust. He just got unlucky for a while, and then lucky for a while after that.
same goes for mcdonald.
McDonald’s ERA (3.52) and xFIP (3.84) with the Pirates last year were very close. He was hurt by our defense to the tune of a .322 BABIP, but got very lucky on HR/FB (3.7%), which was more than enough to cancel out the damage done by our defense.
and probably a few more.
You would tend to expect there to be a few in any given season, simply because of the way normal distributions within a population work. The vast majority, however, display significant negative effects caused by the defense.
I kind of hate to open this can of worms...
…but jeez, Sanchez looks really thin in that photo, doesn’t he?
Allie took his lunch money
He did lose twenty lbs when he broke his jaw. How old is the picture?
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
by glass0941 on Mar 28, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Has to be fairly recent.
Given that it’s got Taillon and Allie in Pirates uniforms in it.
I knew intellectually that he had dropped some pounds, which was certainly understandable what with his jaw being wired shut and all. I was just kind of taken aback to actually see it.
The pic is from last week.
Sanchez posted it on his twitter feed as soon as it was available.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 28, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
While he has lost weight
I think the picture may be a little deceiving. He is standing next to two people who are substantially bigger than him: Allie is 6’4, 225 lbs and Taillon 6’5, 230. When you’re standing next to two people that much bigger than you, chances are you are going to look a bit small in comparison
by PuncSpeedChunk on Mar 28, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It's somewhat deceiving.
If you’ve seen pics of him from when he was in college and from his early days in the Pirates organization then you can’t help but notice he is much thinner. Everything I’ve heard about this guy since he has been in the org has been positive and many have noted his work habits are great. I’m sure he dropped at least ten pounds, I’d guess probably closer to twenty, while his jaw was wired. If he’s kept to a near maintenance calorie diet and kept up the workouts he’s not going to gain back the weight, at least not quickly, and it’s only been a few months since the injury.
about that
hopefully he’s learned to drop like a sack of shit if a FB is coming at his face.
by BlindSquirrel on Mar 28, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
C'mon...
Heredia is throwing 96.
Tony…who?
I would think that is a good sign. Not disturbingly thin, but I recall concerns about his weight being high coming out of college. Particularly remember him talking about eating subway every day and losing x amount of pounds. For a catcher we need him to keep his weight down and stay mobile
RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.
"I'D BE A CHEF"
-TONY PLUSH
Stetson:
“It’s pretty special,” he said. “I was never a big school guy, to be honest. Just to come out, clear my head and pitch has been a lot of fun. Even last year, when me and Jameson were with State College just to watch, it wasn’t as bad as I’d thought. The bus rides were a little long, but playing baseball and not having to go to school … you can’t really beat that.”
I guess you can’t really beat that.
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
Ha
Knowing this now, I totally would have been more stingy in the negotiations. The guy clearly would have never gone to a college class.
Stetson = meathead — and I love it.
The guy clearly would have never gone to a college class.
That really doesn’t disqualify you from playing NCAA Div I sports. Each school has people working behind the scenes to keep their meatheads eligible.
Did anyone else read that headline as...
Ryan Braun is a Dirtball?
After listening to a couple of innings of the Twins feed on MLBTV...
and reading the PG I’m ready for a shower and a bath and I may walk through a car wash to feel clean again.
I watched the game today with the sound off after the first two innings. All the commentator wanted to do was rip the Pirates everytime they came up to bat ( you know the old rebuilding for 18 years lie ) Talking about how they get rid of a player as soon as he gets good and other snide remarks.
Then I went to the PG site and read some snide article about Corrieia from somebody who must be on the editorial board and who had to get his politics involved because I guess Corrieia is a Republican …like, who the hell cares.
Then to really top my day off I made the mistake of reading “smizak ….I refuse to spell his name with a capital letter”…..and the posts from his minions.
Thank goodness there are some blogs like this where at least there is fair exchanges and thoughts after a day of encountering nothing but hate and negativaty.
by oldfrothingslosh on Mar 28, 2011 4:10 PM EDT reply actions
Most players are Republicans.
Purely out of self-interest. It is the party of low taxes for the rich, after all.
Jeez , now I have to listen to political views here too !
Thanks for nothing.
by oldfrothingslosh on Mar 28, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Not taking a position on it.
Just stating a fact. Demographically, the player base leans very far to the right, though there are individual exceptions of course.
my post was intended to be about the hate and negativity...
that I encountered throughout the day toward the Pirates The only reason I mentioned …anything about Corrieia’s alleged affilliation to the Rep. party is the writer threw it in the article for really no reason except to try to demean Corrieia further. I don’t know who the writer is, that was the first time I have seen his name.
As I wrote in my post "Who the hell cares "(about his politics)
As for you’re fact’s I don’t know if I accept them as well as you’re saying you are not taking a position but you say things like “it’s the party of low taxes for the rich” and “the player base leans Very Far To The Left”
Tell me do you also write for the sports page of the Daily Worker?
by oldfrothingslosh on Mar 28, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
As for you’re fact’s I don’t know if I accept them as well as you’re saying you are not taking a position but you say things like "it’s the party of low taxes for the rich"
Again: Not taking a position, just stating a fact. There was one party pushing to extend tax cuts for annual incomes above $250k last fall, for example, and it wasn’t the Democrats. Link.
"the player base leans Very Far To The Left"
Actually, I said that the player base as a whole leans to the right. Which it does. Link, for example. Most sports owners also lean to the right, for similar (financially-based) reasons, though there are some notable exceptions, like Peter Angelos.
Tell me do you also write for the sports page of the Daily Worker?
No, I don’t. Amusingly, though, the Daily Worker used to have a very good sports page back in the day, highlighted by Lester Rodney. They were, as you might expect, one of the only non-African American papers to give extensive coverage to black sports in the ’40s and ’50s, and were one of the first to push aggressively for the integration of baseball. Back then, of course, there were significant ties between socialism and the civil rights movement, dating back to the Harlem Renaissance and before.
The famous quote about Rodney, from Leo Durocher:
“You know, Rodney, for a fucking Communist, you sure know your baseball.”
And also why
so many live in Florida. No state income tax.
Not just baseball players, either.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 28, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
but higher taxes elsewhere.
property tax, car insurance and home insurance are outrageous. if you live in a city, you can be charged property tax by the city AND by the county you reside.
make no mistake, you end up paying no matter where you live.
smizak ….I refuse to spell his name with a capital letter
or correctly either…
; )
by BlindSquirrel on Mar 28, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t read or respect him enough him enough to care if his name is spelled correctly.
by oldfrothingslosh on Mar 28, 2011 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
fwiw
Assuming this is the article you were talking about, I don’t think the writer was saying that Correia is a Republican. He made a joke about George W. Bush, and then made another joke based on the possibility that KC was a Republican and might have been offended by the previous joke. (I’m using the word “joke” very loosely.) I can’t find anything online to indicate what KC’s politics might be.
Anyway, oldfrothingslosh is right — that column was a major suckpile, no matter what your politics are.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Mar 29, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
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