Five Questions: Chicago Cubs
The Pirates kick off their 2011 season against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday. Here are five questions with Al Yellon, who runs the SB Nation Cubs blog Bleed Cubbie Blue.
How will playing time be distributed at second base, and what do you expect out of Darwin Barney this year?
It's not really clear how playing time will be distributed yet. When camp began it appeared the Cubs were going to platoon Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker at second, but Barney outplayed DeWitt, who has been relegated to a bench role. Baker rakes against LHP (.350/.395/.550 in 152 PA in 2010, .308/.363/.545 career), so he's likely to get most of the at-bats against lefthanders. Barney therefore will get the lion's share of the starts and because he's the Cubs' best defensive infielder, he could win the starting job. Barney's a winner - he was on an Oregon State College World Series-winning team, and bulked up his upper body last winter at an offseason camp. He could be a really pleasant surprise.
You wrote last week that Starlin Castro looks poised for a breakout season this year. Why do you think so?
Castro came up as the "speedy middle infield guy." He hit .300 last year - at age 20 - while playing somewhat shaky defense (27 errors). He's worked hard on the defense, and hit some monstrous home runs in spring training, including one over a 30-foot-high hitter's background 430 feet from the plate in Las Vegas. I could see him turning into Edgar Renteria in his prime, a 15-to-20-homer-a-year guy. And he just turned 21, an age at which a lot of guys are in Class AA, or juniors in college. He can only get better.
After struggling at the start of last season, Carlos Zambrano kept runs off the board down the stretch, although he still struggled with his control. What do you expect from him in 2011?
Big Z went through anger management with a psychologist after his incident last year in the dugout during a game vs. the White Sox. He was lights-out after his return, except, as you mention, for a few issues with command. He no longer has to worry about the pressure of starting on Opening Day, which in the past seemed to have him too amped up. (Last year, he got absolutely pounded by the Braves.) Ryan Dempster will start the game for the Cubs. I expect Zambrano to have an excellent season, one of his best - he's healthy and in great shape, and people forget he's not yet 30, because he's been around so long.
How much time do you expect 2010 20-homer hitter Tyler Colvin will get in the outfield?
All the Cubs' other outfielders - Kosuke Fukudome, Marlon Byrd and Alfonso Soriano - will need breaks and days off. That's how Colvin will likely be slotted in, kind of a four-guys-for-three-positions situation. Fukudome can't really hit lefthanders, but since Colvin is also a left-handed hitter, it won't be a strict platoon. Last year Colvin played in 135 games with 398 plate appearances. He should be in nearly as many games, with close to the same number or more plate appearances.
Given all the salary they'll have coming off the books (Carlos Silva, Kosuke Fukudome, perhaps Aramis Ramirez), do you think the Cubs have what it takes to land Albert Pujols next offseason?
Ramirez has been in walk (or, more correctly, opt-out) years in the past and has always produced. The key for him is staying healthy. If he produces a year like that, the Cubs could decide to retain him for another year (or more). He hasn't had a fully healthy year since 2008. Between Ramirez, Silva, Fukudome and John Grabow ($4.7 million this year), the Cubs could easily have $30 million available for Albert Pujols. If I'm making the decision, I sign Pujols in a heartbeat, to whatever deal he wants (probably front-loading it so if the last years aren't that productive, at least you're not paying that much for them). He's going to end up the greatest righthanded hitter in baseball history. Some Cubs fans are afraid of "another Soriano deal." But the comps for Pujols are guys like Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb - first-tier Hall of Famers. He's absolutely worth it ... not to mention it would cause anguish for Cardinals fans.
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love these posts charlie. always good to know what serious fans of other teams are thinking.
cubbies could surprise either way up or down this year. my guess is down, but that could just be homerism for the pirates.
not sure where the optimism for darwin barney comes from. he doesn’t look to hit for average or power so he’d better be maz with the glove. even david eckstein slugged over .400 in the minors (and .4000 in grittiness) and drew the occasional walk.
also, any fan that thinks pujols and soriano are comparable needs to get their head checked.
Just wanted to echo the first comment.
These kind of posts are great. With as many great bloggers as SBN has, these posts are always educational and entertaining.
I made most of my life decisions at a Foghat concert... I stand by them.
by Chester J Lampwick on Mar 29, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Castro
Looks like the Cubs will set at SS for a while! I just can’t believe why we can’t sign top tier prospects out of Latin America? With the exception of Heredia and “possibly” Marte & Moreno, we don’t seem to have that “top prospect” in the organization!
Is it scouting, Gayo, or budget issues preventing us from signing top Latin ballplayers? Yes, we have spent more on international signings, but Gayo has been in charge since 2004! Would he have been able to sign Heredia if he was not a close family friend of one of our scouts? According to DK article last year Heredia was like part of this scouts family! Marte and Moreno are top prospects in our organization, but is not high on most national publications! I realize drafting 16 yr olds is very difficult, but how can so many other organizations land top prospects?
I really don’t know and thought I would ask for your thoughts….. I am starting to wonder about Gayo! He had some success in Cleveland but what has he produced for the Bucco’s! Please help me out here… Is my ignorance on other Latin prospects in the DSL and VSL preventing me from being optimistic? Thank you…
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 11:58 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
theres 29 other teams out there trying to get those latin players. just like free agents you cant just say "hey, kid. come play for us"
by white angus on Mar 29, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That's true
In six years under Gayo as LA scouting director do we have “one” on our ML roster? Or one even close? I commented earlier that I just don’t know why we are not producing LA prospects into MLB players or even top 100 prospects? I just want the Pirates to win! NH has stuck to his plan of building through the draft and signing international prospects. Our minor league system under NH went from the cellar to the middle of the pack… But most if that talent is from the draft! After this years draft it could conceivably reach the top ten which is mind boggling! It would be even better adding top tier LA talent…
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 12:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we HAVE signed plenty of young latin players, and i do mean YOUNG...
look at the ages of these kids and you will see that the reason why the majority havent made the MLB roster is because they are still “kids”…
Yes, we have signed a ton of kids…. Gayo has been signing kids for six years, that would make them 22-24 years of age! Where is this group of players? Guys like Castro are hitting the majors at 20-22 years old, not A, A+, or AA…. Ref to Marte in AA— will he be a star at this level or struggle!
White Angus,
I’m not trying to stir the pot here but can you honestly say that our LA prospects compare to other organizations? I’m starting to believe that maybe we are giving Gayo a pass! I maybe totally wrong but it does bring up an interesting discussion… Just
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 2:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just trying to pick all of your brains for an answer…
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 2:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gayo
He may have been in charge since 2004, but he had little money to work with for signing players under Dave Littlefield. Neal Huntington has greatly expanded the amount the organization is willing to spend in Latin America; however, since many of these players are being signed at a very young age and have little organized baseball experience, it will take even longer to see an impact from Latin America than it will from the draft.
We’re not expecting the first (big) wave of drafted players to hit until 2012/2013, the first wave of Latin players is likely to be 2 or 3 years behind.
It's a good day to be a Pirate
Thanks… You believe it was more budget restraints than scouting? I appreciate your answer. It explains a lot.. Money talks in every culture!
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 3:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Time probably plays as big a factor as money. The pipeline has only just been opened up. The product is still (relatively) far away. However, if everything goes according to plan, once that talent arrives it will flow in a constant stream. The Cubs have one promising young Latin player. In a few years time, the Bucs hope to see not just one but many players arriving in the majors year after year after year.
It's a good day to be a Pirate
The fact that we’ve sucked as long as they’ve been alive can’t help.
by insane_sanity on Mar 29, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Gayo started in 2004. Let’s assume he had the budget to get what he wants. If he signs a kid in ‘04 at age 16, that would make them about 22-23 now. Most kids that age are in A+ or AA. We have Marte and Moreno. Like most prospects, the majority of these kids aren’t going to pan out so having these 2 is a solid success rate. More are on the way but are still in the State College/WVA level. You can’t just expect him to get 2 sure-fire impact MLB’ers every year and it’s even more unreasonable to complain that they aren’t making that impact at age 20 or 21.
Not complaining
Simply trying to get answers… I want NH’s plan to develop these “kids” to pan out! I want a winner back in Pittsburgh. I did not want to come across as a pessimist! Reading this post by Charlie just made me wonder why we can’t get a player like Castro!
As for Marte and Moreno their futures do look bright. However, I think it’s a little early in their development to refer to them " as being a solid success rate". Let’s only hope they are successful and become MLB players!
Thanks for your insight!
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 4:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah I guess that was poor wording but they have developed into assets that could be used in a trade and whatnot. In that regard they are a success, to be legit prospects. I think Castro is just a special case, although we have one of our own in Tabata. The key I think is these kids take years n years and the washout rate is so high it may be another 4,5,6 years before we see some big impact from LA.
Mr E,
I hope sooner for NH’s sake, as well for all Pirate Fans! I just hope NH will get to reap what he has sown! I can’t say I have agreed with all of his transactions… But, he has stuck to his plan and that’s why he differs from the Bonifays and Littlefields! That is why I respect him… Being under the media microscope from day one he hasn’t flinched! Maybe a Castro type player is on the Pirates Horizon!
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 4:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we almost had a prospect better than Castro, and we all know how that went.
you have 29 other teams trying to get the same players. you are going to lose more than you are going to win.
We do have a prospect better than Castro
His name is Luis Heredia.
Whether he achieves anything at the major league level is obviously still unknown but I think just on prospect status, he was more highly touted than Starlin. I may be wrong though.
I meant as a shortstop
but yes, i agree with you
by white angus on Mar 31, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Well for what it's worth
Jodaneli Carvajal was named the top international prospect this year and he’s a SS in our system…
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Mar 29, 2011 5:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's great
I knew you guys would have answers on Latin American prospects. That’s why I enjoy this site so much! The knowledge you guys have is unbelievable.
Thanks again for all your comments and opinions. I really appreciate the feedback…
by Krid on Mar 29, 2011 6:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
jorge bishop and elias diaz both are nice signings, especially Diaz
people think very highly of cayones.
No Raul
Fidel flamed out, but blocked the position for Raul. Its good to see him finally get some PT (presidential time).
by Wizard of Woz on Mar 30, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
First off, Charlie, nice post. Interesting read.
Secondly, I’m shocked that no one this entire day has bothered to call this guy out on the “Darwin Barney is a winner” line. Sure, he was a good player on those OSU teams that won back-to-back titles, but holy crap, have we grown so numb to this kind of mindlessness that we let it slide?
If he’d replied, “Darwin Barney is a good player and has been since he won back-to-back titles with the Beavers in 2006 and 2007,” it would have been fine, but you know what, there were a lot of other players on those teams and they aren’t making major league rosters this year. He’s making the Cubs because he has skill, not because he happened to be on a winning team.
If you can’t tell, I really need this season to start. Too much offseason, off-field chatter; need the bat and ball and green grass every day.
At least he isn’t a Phillies fan?…
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Mar 29, 2011 6:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Read the first comment. It only took one.
by johnnycuff on Mar 29, 2011 6:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, since you brought it up...
…. yes, Barney is a winner. Being on winning teams is important, I think. Obviously, it’s not the be-all and end-all of why Barney made the team. He has talent, and worked hard to get past the mindset that he was a utility infielder at the major league level. Some guys get pigeonholed in roles and can’t break through. Barney opened some eyes during spring training this year. He might win the job outright — because he’s the better player.
Fair enough?
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