Doumit-to-Houston Rumors Picking Up Steam
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 1:16 PM EST
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PrintIn addition to Langosch's speculation to that effect on Friday , we also have a piece along similar lines from Brian McTaggart, the Astros ' writer for MLB.com. After discussing internal options for Houston, McTaggart brings up three external options whom he sees as the Astros' best chance: free agent Bengie Molina , Doumit, and Phillies backup Brian Schneider . The Astros are operating under some significant financial limitations at this point, and their farm system is one of the weakest in baseball . Both factors would complicate any possible deal for Doumit.
One possible workaround that occurs to me would involve the Pirates not only covering part of Doumit's salary but also taking back a useful, moderately-priced veteran at a position of lesser need for the Astros (along with the expected prospect(s), of course). The most likely candidate on their roster would seem to be former Bucs prospect Jeff Keppinger . Shedding Keppinger's one-year deal for $2.3M would give the Astros a little more financial breathing room, and with Hall at second, Barmes at short, and Manzella as a utility infielder, they could probably make do without him. There were reports over the offseason that the Astros were considering trading Keppinger at that time, which suggests that they may see him as expendable. Keppinger, meanwhile, is a quality infield reserve (2011 ZiPS: .281/.335/.384 in Houston) who could be kept to improve our bench or re-flipped in a separate deal, either later this spring or at the deadline.
Given Snyder's past medical issues, I think that there's significant value for our team in retaining Doumit this year, and I wouldn't shove him out the door simply for the sake of making a trade. Nevertheless, we would be remiss if we didn't at least consider possible deals with a team in Houston's position.
Update: As was noted in the comments, Keppinger's offseason foot surgery will likely keep him out through mid-May. That's obviously an obstacle, though not necessarily an insurmountable one, depending on who else accompanies him in the trade. He's expected to suffer no long-term effects from the procedure, and there will still be a lot of season left at that point.
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can Keppinger play short? He’s always been a solid bat, a hard guy to strike out. I would still hope for a middle of the road prospect with him
Keppinger has a reasonable amount of experience at short, and probably wouldn’t embarrass himself too badly there in an emergency situation, but it’s not a great fit for his natural skills. UZR sees him as a -12.1 there per 150 games, in a fairly reasonable sample size (just under 1400 career ML innings). He’s decent enough at 2B and 3B, though, and has filled in at 1B and corner OF on occasion as well.
To fit Keppinger onto the roster, you either need to assume that the other IF backup (preferrably Rodriguez) is able to handle short, or else punt SS defense entirely.
Keppinger
is out at least until mid-May with left foot surgery in January.
by Pirate in Ole VA on Mar 6, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
A good point.
I hadn’t expected his rehab to take that long, but it seems you’re correct. Updating accordingly.
No
Doumit for Keppinger is not a good deal. The Pirates should only trade to improve the team, not to just make a move. If Houston lacks resources, that is not the Pirates problem. What would Keppinger bring? For that matter could someone please explain what Snyder has done to be the starting catcher over Doumit anyhow?
The Pirates should only trade to improve the team, not to just make a move.
In theory, this would improve the team, I think. Keppinger would be a solid upgrade on any UT IF on the roster (except perhaps Rodriguez), and we’d also have whichever Astros prospect(s) came along in the deal.
Teams have successfully flipped Keppinger for prospects in the past, so it’s not unlikely that we’d be able to do so as well, if we were so inclined.
Teams have successfully flipped Keppinger for prospects in the past, so it’s not unlikely that we’d be able to do so as well, if we were so inclined.
Vlad, please don’t tell me that you consider (or ever considered) Ruben Gotay, Russ Halitwanger or Drew Sutton to be “prospects”!!
What's scary is that Sutton is probably the best of the three (and the only one that could be remotely considered a "prospect"....
and it’s very unlikely he’ll ever turn out to be anything more than Keppinger is (a back-up infielder). Though Sutton is currently an NRI with the Red Sox, he’s got a pretty big uphill battle to get onto their roster.
I guess the Pirates thought enough of Gotay to have him be their property for 2 months in 2009 (to be honest, I had to look it up because I I don’t remember it!)
And Haltiwanger spent 2 more years in high-A before he was gone.
Vlad, please don’t tell me that you consider (or ever considered) Ruben Gotay, Russ Halitwanger or Drew Sutton to be "prospects"!!
Gotay was very much a prospect at the time he was traded for Keppinger. He was only 23, and was still a 2B at that point, and had a strong track record of offensive performances through 2004 (OPSes above .800 in three of his first four seasons), followed by a premature and ill-advised promotion to the majors. He looked like a good young player in need of a change of scenery and a fresh start.
Sutton was less attractive, but I’d still classify him as a prospect. He was getting a little long in the tooth, and had slipped from SS to 2B on the defensive spectrum, but he was the Astros’ Minor League Player of the Year in 2008 and entered 2009 in the #8 spot on their BA list. He was at least analogous at that time to our second-tier MIF prospects like Ciriaco, Mercer, and Friday.
You can’t look at how guys turned out and then go back and extrapolate whether they were or were not prospects at the time they were traded. Not all prospects develop into MLB regulars.
You can’t look at how guys turned out and then go back and extrapolate whether they were or were not prospects at the time they were traded. Not all prospects develop into MLB regulars.
I WAS talking about what they were viewed at the time.
Gotay was never considered to be much of a prospect and the Royals had pretty much given up on him by the time of the trade.
Sutton was the closest thing to a prospect, but he was already entering into his 6th year in the minors, and was just then getting his first chance at AAA at the age of 26. Yes, BA listed him high in 2009, but that was the usual BA overstating a guy’s previous year’s performance. Sutton had a great year in 2008, his 2nd in AA, bu the certainly wasn’t seen as being a whole lot more than a utility infielder.
And Haltiwanger was just a late round draft pick that managed to stick around for a couple of years with unimpressive numbers before the trade.
Again, Keppinger has NOT ever brought back prospects (as you stated he had). He managed to bring back one young minor leaguer who had a lower ceiling than Keppinger. Not exactly a good enough reason for the Pirates to go after him and expect to get anything in return.
Gotay was never considered to be much of a prospect
If he wasn’t ever considered to be much of a prospect, why did he play in the Futures Game in 2004 or the WBC in 2006? They don’t hand that shit out for free.
Yes, BA listed him high in 2009, but that was the usual BA overstating a guy’s previous year’s performance.
If you think that he was overrated as a prospect, that’s fine, but that doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not he was considered to be a prospect (or treated as a prospect) at the time he was traded. Keppinger was traded for Sutton at a time when Sutton was perceived to have value by the baseball community at large.
And Haltiwanger was just a late round draft pick that managed to stick around for a couple of years with unimpressive numbers before the trade.
I never said that Haltiwanger was a prospect – I’m not sure why you’d think that I did. I was quite clearly talking about Gotay and Sutton.
Again, Keppinger has NOT ever brought back prospects (as you stated he had).
Except for the two prospects he brought back, whom you’ve decided don’t count as prospects because you don’t like them…
Doumit would be much more valuable to the Pirates than Keppinger, even if he was healthy.
The backup catcher gets more ABs than a backup infielder on a normal team, and with Snyder’s injury history and general lack of bat against RHPs, Doumit should get even more than usual.
I guess the question hinges on what you think of Jaramillo. I do not think very much of him and see the difference between Doumit and him as pretty substantial – larger than the difference between Keppinger and our alternatives, when taking into account playing time.
So, assuming that, one thing is certain for me. Trading Doumit will make the Pirates of 2011 worse. Therefore it shouldn’t be done unless it brings back a piece or pieces that would significantly improve a future team.
I’m not talking someone along the lines of Argenis Diaz or Strickland, like we got for Adam LaRoche.
Doumit would be much more valuable to the Pirates than Keppinger, even if he was healthy.
True. As such, we’d need to make up the difference with one or more prospects in addition to Keppinger.
Therefore it shouldn’t be done unless it brings back a piece or pieces that would significantly improve a future team.
Not a lot of candidates for that in Houston’s system. They aren’t going to want to trade Lyles, and they can’t trade DeShields, Folty, Wates, or Kvasnicka without resorting to the PTBNL dodge. Bushue’s decent, but innings are going to be hard to come by for us at A+ this year. Among guys I’d consider at all, that kind of leaves us with Martinez, Melancon, and Mier.
Is one of those three enough to ring your bell? How about one of them plus a “useful filler” type like Arguello?
Mier doesn’t look good. He appears to be a bust, so unless the Pirates see something specific that they can fix, I’d say no.
If they could get Martinez, then that would be pretty good and fill a hole that we’ve got with outfield prospects. I doubt they would part with him for Doumit, though.
Melancon might be an option, but that would be probably the lowest I’d go.
I think it's too early to call Mier an outright bust.
Yeah, 2010 was disappointing, but it was just one season. He’s still got the glove and the walks and the not-bad-for-SS power. If he hadn’t struggled, there’s no way he’d even be in the conversation as a possible trade chip.
Villar, on the other hand, scares me to death. 150+ Ks in the low minors, from a guy who doesn’t have all that much power? Who spent a quarter of his season in Lancaster? Yikes.
“Villar, on the other hand, scares me to death. 150+ Ks in the low minors, from a guy who doesn’t have all that much power? Who spent a quarter of his season in Lancaster? Yikes.”
Just curious why you aren’t considering age-to-league?
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 6:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Just curious why you aren’t considering age-to-league?
What makes you think that I’m not? For about 75% of last season, Villar was a 19-year-old in A-ball, which is a perfectly normal and acceptable placement. And he hit .272/.332/.358 there, with a 26/103 K/BB (well above the 25% K/AB line). He was underaged for Lancaster, but Lancaster is an enormous launching pad – it’s like playing baseball on the moon. And he got the bat knocked out of his hands there.
Villar is a tremendous athlete, but right now, he knows very little about how to actually play baseball, and the failure rate on low-minors guys with that profile is very high. He’s got maybe a 5% chance of putting all the pieces together and being a star/superstar, but if he doesn’t, he probably won’t even end up as a solid regular in AAA.
He's not actually any good.
Why would they want him, and even if they did, what could we possibly get back in return for him?
what could we possibly get back in return for him?
The goodwill of Ed Wade. That may actually be of significant help at some point in the future.
OK, fine.
But refer back to Part A of my question. Jaramillo’s 2011 ZiPS is .234/.293/.339. Why would that Astros deliberately trade for that? They can already get shitty production from their internal options.
Doumit would be much more valuable to the Pirates than Keppinger, even if he was healthy.
Exactly right!! I don’t understand trading a good bat in Doumit for an injured and soon-to-be 31-year-old backup middle infielder. That could turn out to be one of the worst trades in Major League history (even eclipsing David Littlefield territory). It would be one of those trades where neither team gets anything out of the deal. The Astros are worse behind the plate and the Pirates have to fill-in a hole as the back-up utility infielder until Keppinger is healthy.
Hold on to Doumit until a team that actually has something of value to send back suffers a loss at catcher!!
No harm in that.
I don’t understand trading a good bat in Doumit for an injured and soon-to-be 31-year-old backup middle infielder.
Then let me break it down for you again: Houston doesn’t have enough payroll ceiling left to trade for Doumit unless we pay the vast majority of his contract, and they probably aren’t going to have enough prospect mass on hand to make a trade work if we DO pay the majority of his contract. Ergo, by picking up Keppinger as part of the deal, we’d be able to clear space to allow Houston to take more of Doumit’s contract, while acquiring a useful infield bat plus enough of Houston’s crummy prospects to make up the difference in value between the two.
If you’d rather hold onto Doumit, that’s fine, but the Astros probably can’t make a deal work without doing something like this, and the front office seems more and more determined to ship him out at all costs, for reasons that remain obscure to me.
That could turn out to be one of the worst trades in Major League history…
Hyperbolize much?
The Astros are worse behind the plate…
LOL. Worse behind the plate with Doumit than with Humberto Quintero? The same Humberto Quintero who was only half a win above replacement level as part of a 50/50 job split last year?
…and the Pirates have to fill-in a hole as the back-up utility infielder until Keppinger is healthy…
Which we are going to end up doing ANYWAY – for the entire season – in the event that we don’t acquire Keppinger.
See DL
If you want some of the worst trades in MLB history.
This would hardly be in the same universe, as Vlad notes.
See DL
If you want some of the worst trades in MLB history.
This would hardly be in the same universe, as Vlad notes.
Bernie, you’re talking about lopsided trades. I’m talking about the WORST trades as in: nobody-benefits-so-it’s-pointless-to-make-the-trade-kind-of-trade. To me, those are the worst trades because nobody gets any better. They’re useless.
You have to admit there was almost always a winner in the DL trades
(by the way, I know it’s a running joke about DL, but a lot of his TRADES were pretty decent – beyond the obvious cash-slashing Ramirez trade, it was his drafting and free agent signings that were the real disaster of his time in Pittsburgh) .
I don't know
I think when you look at the body of his work you want to vomit.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/411458-the-10-worst-pirates-moves-in-the-last-10-years
Also, you have to include the deals he passed on, like Ryan Howard.
I certainly don't want to spend too much time defending Dave Littlefield....
but he did trade Oliver Perez & Roberto Hernandez for Xavier Nady.
Traded Brian Giles for Jason Bay, Oliver Perez & Corey Stewart.
Traded Brandon Lyon, Anastacio Martinez & Jeff Suppan for Mike Gonzalez & Freddy Sanchez.
Traded Kris Benson & Jeff Keppinger for Ty Wiggingon, Jose Bautista & Matt Peterson (one of those trades where the Pirates may have benefited by holding on to their return longer!!)
I won’t argue that he made some bad trades in there, but I still think his destructive imprint on this team is felt more by the bad free agent signings and poor drafting.
Impled, just my thoughts
1. He lucked out and got Bay. Kevin Towers made clear that DL wanted other guys (Nady, Barfield).
2. I’m not sure I’d give DL such high marks on the Nady trade. He gave away Hernandez who would have been a type A free agent. Tabata is more valuable now. It’s more of a slight edge, I think, when you factor that in.
3. Actually, the Brandon Lyon trade is far more complicated than you list. DL gave away Mike Gonzalez for an injured player without insisting on a physical. Then when Lyon was hurt, he raised hell. But the Red Sox could have told him to go to hell. We would have lost Gonzalez and not gotten Sanchez in the orginal deal.
4. He wouldn’t have had to trade for Jose Bautista if the idiot hadn’t left him off the 40-man roster and he was taken in the Rule 5 draft. Why? He chose to leave three spots open and expose Bautista to the draft.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/031215rulevoverview.html
I can’t give him credit for trading for a player he never should have lost to begin with.
Haha, fair enough!!!
I was just trying to say that I feel that DL’s trade record isn’t quite as bad as his other stuff, but I think it gets lumped together in one giant “DL destroyed the Pirates organization” feelings most people have and it makes it seem worse than it was (not saying it was great, by any means, but he did pick up a few valuable pieces.)
In response to your responses:
1. You’re right, he did luck out and get Bay, however he did trade a productive player who was a bit of a clubhouse cancer for 2 very productive players (though how productive Perez has been is open for debate.) I think anytime you can get 2 productive players in exchange for 1 productive player, it’s a good trade.
2. It’s so bizarre to me to think of Roberto Hernandez as being a Type A free agent (which means that DL signed a Type A free agent!!!!! Perhaps we should give him credit for that), because while he was very good in his short time in Pittsburgh, he was a 41-year-old middle reliever. A team shouldn’t receive 2 picks for a 41-year-old middle reliever. But I still give him credit on this move for picking up Nady.
3. I still remember when the Red Sox trade went down, hearing about how great this Freddy Sanchez was, but having to wait forever to finally see him in a uniform, because he was injured. I still applaud him for correcting his mistake of sending Gonzalez away and also for picking up Sanchez, but you are right that basically he was covering his own blunder from a week prior.
4. Agreed about Bautista, DL covering up a previous blunder, But I just figured that Benson & Keppinger were a pretty small price to pay to pick up Wigginton & Bautista. Unfortunately, both had their biggest successes post-Pittsburgh. So, I think the trade was a good one, but they ended up giving up on Wigginton too soon and could never quite figure out how to get the most out of Bautista. You figure that Wigginton hit 69 HRs (while hitting .275 & over, plus an OPS over .800) over the next 3 seasons after he was released by the Pirates. Would have been some nice production to see in a Pirates uniform. Oh well!
The thing that totally baffles me is this......
the main reason to get rid of Doumit is to get rid of his salary…..
So, if $5 million is too much to pay for Doumit….isn’t $7 million (assuming the Pirates have to pay most of Doumit’s salary AND pay Keppinger’s salary) WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too much to pay for Jeff Keppinger????
Dave Littlefield probably would have made this move in a heartbeat!!!!
Not that I don't agree with the horrible ...
free agent signings and drafts.
I just think he was a disaster on the trade market as well.
DL just sucked in all aspects of the job, I think.
LOL. Worse behind the plate with Doumit than with Humberto Quintero? The same Humberto Quintero who was only half a win above replacement level as part of a 50/50 job split last year?
Let’s see replacing a guy who was a half a win above replacement level with a guy who was .3 wins above replacement level last year, yeah, I’d say they would be worse off with Doumit.
Then let me break it down for you again: Houston doesn’t have enough payroll ceiling left to trade for Doumit unless we pay the vast majority of his contract, and they probably aren’t going to have enough prospect mass on hand to make a trade work if we DO pay the majority of his contract. Ergo, by picking up Keppinger as part of the deal, we’d be able to clear space to allow Houston to take more of Doumit’s contract, while acquiring a useful infield bat plus enough of Houston’s crummy prospects to make up the difference in value between the two.
You make it sound like the Pirates owe it to the Astros to help them out with their payroll problems. I don’t get it, this trade does absolutely nothing to make the Pirates a better baseball team, and I’d argue a worse one. Keppinger is out until May and even then, he’ll have to get back into playing shape. He may not be really ready to go until after the trading deadline, what good is that? You haven’t told me why the Pirates would want an injured Keppinger except to say that he’s brought back prospects in the past (which isn’t at all true…he’s brought back a player, yes, but not a prospect.)
That could turn out to be one of the worst trades in Major League history…
Hyperbolize much?
Well, certainly if neither team benefits, then it is one of the worst trades in Major League history. That’s all I was saying. Sure, many trades have benefited no one (as this one would) and they are all tied for the worst trades in ML history. (Note, I didn’t say the worst one-sided trades, that’s where some of the DL trades come into play, but one of the many completely pointless, useless trades that bad teams make when they are desperate to unload salary.)
I still think it’s a horrendous trade, with absolutely no benefit to either side.
Let’s see replacing a guy who was a half a win above replacement level with a guy who was .3 wins above replacement level last year, yeah, I’d say they would be worse off with Doumit.
First, Doumit was at 0.8 WAR last year, not 0.3. Second, Doumit’s WAR total is suppressed by the time he spent in RF and at 1B. The offensive baseline at those positions is higher, so his bat provided less marginal value there, and his defensive numbers at those positions hurt his fielding rating. Considered purely as a catcher, the role Doumit would play in Houston, he’s a clear and obvious upgrade for the Astros.
You make it sound like the Pirates owe it to the Astros to help them out with their payroll problems.
If we want to make a deal with them, then yes, we do, since they don’t have the money on hand to make a deal otherwise. We’d be taking advantage of their predicament to acquire a useful asset (i.e. Keppinger) at a bargain price, and they’d get half a loaf rather than none. Everybody wins.
Keppinger is out until May and even then, he’ll have to get back into playing shape. He may not be really ready to go until after the trading deadline, what good is that?
While it’s technically possible that Keppinger will be out until after the trade deadline, in reality that’s about as likely as him being decapitated by an inbound meteor. The fact that you need to rely on that kind of stuff only underlines the weakness of your case.
You haven’t told me why the Pirates would want…Keppinger
From the original piece I wrote on this: “Keppinger, meanwhile, is a quality infield reserve (2011 ZiPS: .281/.335/.384 in Houston) who could be kept to improve our bench…”
Reading comprehension FAIL.
he’s brought back prospects in the past (which isn’t at all true…he’s brought back a player, yes, but not a prospect.)
As I demonstrated upthread, both Gotay and Sutton were considered to be prospects at the time they were traded for Keppinger. Your obstinate denial of this fairly obvious fact does you no credit.
I still think it’s a horrendous trade, with absolutely no benefit to either side.
This is because you are wrong about nearly every aspect of the situation. You’re wrong about Doumit’s value as a catcher, wrong about Keppinger’s value as a reserve, wrong about the seriousness of Keppinger’s medical issues, and wrong about the caliber of player for whom Keppinger has been traded in the past.
Other than that, your analysis is spot-on.
First, Doumit was at 0.8 WAR last year, not 0.3.
Baseball-reference lists Doumit’s WAR last year as a 0.3.
Vlad, you seem real defensive about people attacking this trade. Rather than attacking me, maybe you need to go back and think a little more about Jeff Keppinger. I think it’s funny that you are defending Doumit’s WAR, but then want to give him up for next to nothing. I’m saying the same thing. He’s an atrocious catcher at this point in his career. But his bat continues to be valuable. Why trade him for a back-up infielder, who may or may not recover from injury still baffles me.
I’m not going to go back and try to re-prove my points, because obviously you have it in your head that Gotay and Sutton were considered prospects and because you were the one to suggest this awful trade, you aren’t going to let anyone else make points that suggest this trade would do absolutely nothing for the Pirates.
Again, my overall belief better to hold on to Doumit until a team is really desperate, and the Pirates can get something of VALUE in return. Go ahead, tell me how stupid I am again.
Suggested this yesterday..
Maybe Fernando Abad… what do you think Vlad? Mark? Anyone?
Keppinger and Abad for Doumit.
He’s not a prospect, but he’ll contribute at the ML-level, this year and potentially long-term, has a good minors track record, and could be a valuable bullpen lefty. I have no clue whether Houston would trade him, or whether or not this would bridge the gap between Keppinger and Doumit, but it’s at least interesting to me.
I don't have a really good fix on Abad.
His repertoire isn’t anything special, and he wasn’t as good as his ML ERA last year (low BABIP, high strand rate). On the other hand, you have to respect his track record, and he does fill an area of need for us.
I’d like to see some film on him before taking a position either way.
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Also something to keep note of..
Cervelli out 6-8 weeks for the Yankees..
Miguel Olivo injured groin muscle for the Mariners..
I don’t think either team will look to the trade market just yet, but could be of interest to keep an eye on at some point.
Particularly the Mariners if Olivo’s problems linger and the Mariners over-achieve.
The Yankees have Martin, Posada, and Montero as catching options as well, so I don’t see them needing a catcher.
Seattle might be a good fit, though. Doumit could step in if Olivo had to miss any time, and would probably get some ABs at DH, C, and even 1B with a fully healthy lineup.
Not sure if either side would do it, but I’d consider asking for Greg Halman in exchange. Extremely low floor, but a very high ceiling as well. Maybe try to get 100-mph Dan Cortes as well?
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Went away to Leafland for a day. It was nice, even though they lost. And I became a Certified Grabbo Lover.
Halman?
I just can’t imagine ANY universe in which K rates like that translate, plus the “good part” of his numbers must be taken with the PCL grain of salt.
seattle has Adam Moore
He’s still kind of raw, but I think they saw him as the heir apparent at C?
by Pensburgh Pirates on Mar 7, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather see what we have in Josh Rodriguez
then pay more for Keppinger, who seems to be a similar player without a chance at upside.
If Keppinger's healthy and on our roster
Cedeno should be on the bench or cut.
by jackiegleason on Mar 6, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Keppinger is not a SS
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Mar 6, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Don't be fooled.
They actually have a good bit we could use. See 5-10 here:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12579
Seems like a number of guys we could use if HOU wanted to do something dumb.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 3:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The system is too weak to trade Roy Halladay or Andrew McCutchen. But the player in question is Ryan Doumit.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 3:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I already talked about most of those guys.
I mentioned #7, #8, #10, and #16 as guys who might make sense. Houston isn’t going to trade #1 for Doumit, no matter how much of his money we pick up. As I said above, #2, #3, #9, and #14 are 2010 draftees who can’t be traded until after the 2011 draft (unless they’re designated as a PTBNL, to be chosen after the end of the season).
Houston just spent $2.6M on #4 last July. He’s a 17-year-old who’s never played in the US – I highly doubt they’re going to trade him. #5 has ghastly issues with contact – 150+ Ks in the low minors last year. He’s probably not going to make it. #6 is a speed-based tools goof with a bad glove at 2B and no walks or power. I don’t think he’s going to hit, and if by some miracle he does, he probably won’t hit enough to handle a position shift to 3B or the OF. #11 is five-foot-five. When was the last time a guy that short made the majors as a position player? #12 has power, but not much else going for him, tools-wise. A BA under .250 in the low minors is a very bad sign, particularly when paired with a bad contact rate. #13 is a CF who hits like 6 (though at least he can field his position – I’ll give him that much). #15 is a Rule 5 pick, and as such, would be subject to the usual Rule 5 restrictions if we traded for him. #17 is a Creechling who might not even stick in CF. #18 is a 16-year-old Dominican (see #4). As a bonus, he also already has a positive test for PEDs on his record. #19 is a relatively old converted pitcher who can maybe have a career as a backup OF, but probably won’t. #20 is maybe interesting, but more as a lottery ticket than a serious acquisition. He throws heat, but doesn’t get swings and misses and has relatively poorly-developed secondary stuff.
So, yeah. Not much there to use when making a deal.
All we really need, at minimum, in a trade would be a few productive years off the bench, since that’s the role Doumit would serve for only one year at that. So I’d just look for maybe two guys with starter upside, but even if they ended up on the bench, it would still work.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 5:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Then you have four realistic options:
#7, #8, #10, and #16.
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 5:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I like
- and #10. I’d ask for/take both them if we eat Doumit’s salary. Although, despite the contact/strikeout issues I’d prefer #5 over #10.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
Formatting issues
should read “#8 and #10”
Although that’s a best case scenario for Doumit. Again, I’d personally take Villar, J.D. Martinez, or Mier + a semi-prospect, even if we have to eat Doumit’s salary.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
I may be in the minority here, but I would definitely take a flier at Jiovanni Mier and another throw in prospect for Doumit and a bulk of his salary. He had a down year at the plate in 2010 but I still think he has a ton of talent and the ability to reach it.
Nope
I’m with you
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't realize DL was also helping the Astros
I knew the Astros minor league system was not good.
But Vlad’s review is pretty damning.
Its also a more negative review on several guys than BA, BP, Hardball Times, etc.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 8:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well
while that may be true, its a universally accepted bottom 5 system without significant upside (like the Pirates for example) and no talent at the MLB level either.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
But Vlad would tell you they have few guys worth reading Doumit for, and I’m not sure I’d go that far given other sources. Doumit doesn’t have a ton of value to either us or the Astros, because they are nut in the hunt either.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 8:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
But Vlad would tell you they have few guys worth reading Doumit for, and I’m not sure I’d go that far given other sources.
OK, then, tell me: On which guys am I wrong, and why?
I don't think
You aren’t “wrong” per se, but (for example) you painted Villar in a very negative light.
As a bit of some intro, my writing class in law school has recently focused on persuasive writing on how to take the same facts and use them in completely different manners depending on which side of a case you take. There’s nothing wrong about it, but its just important to recognize.
#5 has ghastly issues with contact – 150+ Ks in the low minors last year.
Nothing is factually wrong with that statement and that certainly is alarming, but you only examined one side of Villar. Someone could just as easily write
This ultra-athletic shortstop impressed with the Phillies and Houston following his inclusion in the Roy Oswalt trade.
and
Villar has the tools to be an above-average everyday shortstop.
via http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12579
and
9) Jonathan Villar, SS, Grade C+: Would rank higher on pure tools
via http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/28/1900512/houston-astros-top-20-prospects-for-2011
It just depends how you look at it, but clearly Villar possess some positive attributes to be ranked #5 and #9, albeit in a bad farm system.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
One thing I haven’t taken into account is whether Doumit would give us a Type A or B draft pick with a decent year. If true, that would complicate matters, and we’d have to be particular about a return in any trade.
If Doumit s very unlikely to be pick eligible, then his value is limited to maybe one more win in 2011. That’s nice, but minor league depth is probably more important, even if we’re bringing in flawed or raw prospects.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 9:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Don’t forget that Keppinger also has a decent shot at qualifying.
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 11:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don' thtink he is eligible for either comp picks or arbitration.
He has a contract which includes club options past this year. I don’t think the Bucs are allowed to decline their club options only to offer him arbitration….even if they could that would be suicidal anyway.
I don’t believe that Keppinger’s got any options outstanding (there aren’t any listed at Cot’s), but even if he does, there’s no barrier to declining a player’s option and then offering him arbitration unless that’s specifically prohibited in the language of his particular contract. It’s not standard language, but some guys ask for and get clauses of that type, mostly Japanese players who don’t want to be locked into a franchise for six years of control.
pretty sure he meant Doumit.
Another thing, isn’t the CBA up soon? So there might not be a comp system next year.
Certainly possible.
But it’s not a given, and as such, both players’ arbitration status still has value. Just not as much as it would be if the CBA situation were clearer.
Actually you can
You can decline an option but offer arbitration.
I agree, however, that it would be a bad move.
Depends what he does this year.
He put up a .744 raw OPS last year (105 OPS+), as a full-time starter. If he does it again, that’s easily worth bringing back for 2012. He would’ve been the fourth-best hitter on our 2010 team, behind only Cutch, Walker, and Pedro.
It’s also worth remembering that if he does miss a month and a half of PT, as expected, that’ll help hold his award down.
He does have some positive attributes.
I just think that in the balance they’re outweighed by the negatives. That’s not a position of convenience I’m taking in order to support a larger characterization of their farm
system – it’s something I genuinely believe.
I may, of course, be incorrect in my assessment, and you’re certainly welcome to disagree.
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 11:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough
I was not accusing you of being dishonest or unfair, but simply painting another picture.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think you’re wrong either ( can’t say either way, because I haven’t seen or don’t remember them), but you’re different then several sources at least.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 9:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hardball times ranked them 23 rd.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 9:00 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Re: #11
Isn’t Eckstein that small?
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Mar 6, 2011 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
Not quite.
Eckstein’s listed as 5’7". He’s also listed at 20 pounds heavier than Altuve.
It’s possible that either or both players’ listed info is inaccurate, of course.
There WERE guys that size in the majors a hundred years ago.
Wee Willie Keeler, for example, was listed at 5’4", 140, compared to Altuve’s 5’5", 148. But that was a long time ago, and a lot of stuff has changed since then.
And who could forget the illustrious career of Eddie Gaedel?
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Mar 7, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Ya
Scouts find it difficult to wrap their heads around Altuve, who is thought to be even shorter than his listed height, and leaving him without comparison in modern baseball. He could use a more patient approach at the plate, and he is an inefficient basestealer.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 7, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe instead of Keppinger, they’d just send Quintero along with a prospect. If there’s a worry that Jaramillo would be significantly below replacement level, then he’d be a safe backup option since he hasn’t dropped below 0 WAR since 2005.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 4:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Quintero's only making a million bucks.
Adding him to the deal doesn’t give the Astros much more financial ceiling. And he’s no different from the dozens of other good-catch-no-hit backstops hanging around AAA – we don’t need to trade for that in order to have it. If we were going to get a catcher from them, I’d much rather roll the dice on Towles and hope a change of scenery sparks something there.
The point of Keppinger as an addition is not that we have a crying need for a MIF, but that he’s a solid player at a reasonable salary who’s not a great fit for the Astros’ roster.
Many trades like that
involve players not on Top 20 lists. If the Pirates were in the Astros situation, how would you respond?
To move a guy you don’t especially value much, sometimes the return is a “Lottery Ticket” type. A guy in A Ball that your system likes, that they’re willing to part with.
I doubt Houston would part with a Top Twenty Prospect for Doumit. Maybe someone in the 30-40 range of mutual agreement.
Houston would be idiotic to trade any of their top 30 for Doumit.
But we’re speculating on the premise that Ed Wade isn’t a very good GM.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 7:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
20 of the guys in Houston's top 30...
…are only prospects in the loosest possible sense of the word. You could take certain guys from the 21-30 range on our list and make a good case for them as top 10 guys on Houston’s. And I’m not saying that because I’m in love with our system…
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 8:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We got decent talent in the 20-30s. Grossman, Chambers, Rojas, Harrison, guys like that. Also maybe Moskos if he rebounds.
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 6, 2011 8:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Exactly my point.
And we’re a middle-of-the-road system right now. If you took a team like Texas, they’d have guys outside their top 30 who’d be in Houston’s top 15.
Conversely, if you took a random guy from Houston’s 21-30 range, he’d be a bench-playing/bullpen-filling afterthought in the Rangers’ system.
Pretty down on Doumit
I’d trade a guy like Brian Friday for Ryan Doumit for sure. Doumit has a pretty big upside when he’s healthy, and doesn’t have an albatross of a contract.
Obviously, don’t give up the farm, but for a 20-30 prospect, why not?
From the BA top 30, Ramon Aguero, Hague, Josh Rodriguez, Mercer, Ciriaco, and Pribanic have very little value for me.
But even then, would you trade even that for a year of Doumit’s 1 WAR on the bench in a down season where your not contending? From the Astros perspective, would you trade even a shred for the same?
by Adam Reynolds on Mar 7, 2011 1:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
But even then, would you trade even that for a year of Doumit’s 1 WAR on the bench in a down season where your not contending?
It’s not about trying to contend – it’s about not humiliating themselves. The guy who’s currently at the top of their depth chart is a 31-year-old with a .598 OPS in 627 ML PA over the last three seasons. You don’t want to make your loyal fans watch that every day, if you can help it.
Whatever you personally think of Doumit (and he’s really not as bad as a lot of the fan sentiment in Pittsburgh suggests), he’s a huge, huge upgrade on Quintero. Would I give up a non-prospect like Hague or a fringe prospect like Mercer or Pribanic for that kind of upgrade? Damn skippy. Of course, I probably wouldn’t get myself into a position where I’d need to make that choice in the first place…
the astros are in full rebuilding mode for the first time in memory. i dont see them brining in Doumit at all.
if they get anyone, its going to be on the cheap and on the short term
If we're paying half of Doumit's deal...
…and taking Astros prospects in return, he IS “cheap and on the short term”.
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 8:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I just would be very surprised if this went down.
The first choice for the Astros has got to be Benji Molina. I think the main reason he has been thinking about retiring is the lack of playing time he has been promised by clubs. With Houston, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Sure, it’s hard to go from the World Series to playing for a team likely fighting for second to last place, but it’s an MLB job. Molina strikes me as a guy who just has fun playing the game.
Maybe
He already turned down a chance to back up his brother with the Cardinals, though, because the money wasn’t there. I don’t think he’s going to be too flexible about his asking price, and the Astros may not have enough payroll space left to meet it even if he’s their top choice.
by Vlad on Mar 6, 2011 11:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Starting
Maybe he will play for less money if he’s given a starting job in a hitter friendly park.
by uneasy rider on Mar 7, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Selling to the Astros sounds like
selling in a buyer’s market. They don’t have much to give, they don’t want Doumit’s salary, and they have other, cheaper options. Perhaps the best option is to hold until there’s a better fit. MLB Trade Rumours was noting that the Angels would still like to add a bat and a timely injury (to another team’s catcher) might make RD more valuable to trade in a month or two.
"Who is John Galt?"
McCutchenisthetruth.
I’ve got to pick a law school in the next month. Which do you attend and do you like it?
I attend
WVU college of law. It was really the only school I looked at (in-state, many friends live in Morgantown, both parents went there, etc.). It’s a top 50 school right now, and I really enjoy it. I already had/have a social base outside of the law school, so I mainly just attend class etc, but its full of cool people and I’ve made a few good friends.
One of the best pluses about WVU is it has a exceptionally low rate of “snakes.” Snakes are students who seek to purposefully hinder other students by making up fake notes (and sharing them) or checking out books so other students cannot use them (yes that happens).
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 6, 2011 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
Why the hell does that happen in law school? Are people that competitive about being lawyers?
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Mar 7, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
No
Just getting in practice for the real world of lawyering.
by MarkInDallas on Mar 7, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
ZING!
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Haha, I laughed
It’s not about “being lawyers” as in some people won’t graduate at all. It’s about what place someone graduates from law school. At WVU graduating at the very top of the class (top 5% so ~6-7 people) will get recruited by law firms in Charleston, Pittsburgh, Cincy etc. Not top of the corporate ladder, but those jobs will 80k-100k starting out, while someone who graduates.. say middle of the pack.. will most likely find a job that pays 40k-50k.
At top tier law schools, Harvard, Yale, Georgetown etc, people projected to graduate at the top of their classes will get flown on private jets to interview at firms in New York, Chicago, Houston, D.C. etc. You graduate middle of the pack.. well you get the idea.
Personally I think its dumb. I just want to help people, not make money, but whatever.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Mar 7, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
Cool.
I’m accepted to Villanova, Penn State, Pitt, Akron, Michigan State, Western New England, and Saint Thomas. Gotta pick one by April 1st.
I’m leaning Penn State. Brand new building and and close to home (live in the Altoona area now).
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