Should Rudy Owens Start In Place Of Ross Ohlendorf?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 12, 2011 2:18 PM EDT
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Looking over Rob Biertempfel's note from yesterday that Jeff Karstens, Brian Burres or Brad Lincoln are candidates to start in place of Ross Ohlendorf while Ohlendorf is on the DL, it struck me as a shame that Rudy Owens isn't on the 40-man roster right now. Owens pitched well in his Class AAA debut yesterday, posting five strikeouts and no walks while allowing one run over seven innings. (He did give up two doubles and a homer.) Because the Bucs had an off day yesterday, he next time they need an extra starter is Saturday, which would mean Owens would be perfect, getting four days of rest before making his first big-league start.
In addition to Owens not being on the 40-man, the Pirates have pretty specific development plans they usually stick to for top prospects. But as I've said before, Owens has the sort of polish that would make him a good candidate to succeed right away. And while Kyle Stark has emphasized the need for Class AAA to function as an emergency supply of potential major-leaguers in case someone gets hurt, I think it's pretty likely that Owens would be a better spot starter right now than guys like Karstens, Burres or Lincoln. That makes someone like Burres pretty superfluous, and unless you're Burres or his mother or something, that's a very good thing.
If I were in charge, I might just go ahead and put Owens on the roster and give him the start. That does complicate things a little, in that you then have to keep Owens on the 40-man, but since it looks very likely he'll be added at some point this year anyway, I don't think that's a big deal.
The other downside is that you start his arbitration clock. A couple things about that. First, as of right now, the Ohlendorf injury is just a strain, so hopefully Owens would just be up for a couple of spot starts. And even if that turned out not to be the case, it's not certain what will happen with Super Twos in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, so whether Owens gets to the big leagues in April or mid-June might not even turn out to matter in terms of his future salaries.
Anyway, Burres pitched for Indianapolis today, so he'd only have three days' rest before Saturday, and he isn't on the 40-man roster either, so I'm guessing the Bucs will go with Lincoln or Karstens, probably Karstens.
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Owens doesn't strike me as a guy you'd push back just to delay his arbitration eligibility
That said, I can’t see jerking him back and forth from AAA just to get a spot start, either.
Owens may not be a can’t-miss prospect, but he seems like a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation guy at least.
I’d keep him at Indy until he’s ready, then bring him up for good. It’s not like he’s being blocked or anything.
owens probably could hold his own right now in the bigs.
he would pitch well on occasion, get ripped on a few others. that being said, no chance in hell he gets called up right now.
I wached the video
Of the start against the Mud Hens. The thing that strikes you is the easy motion that results in a fastball with some pace and movement. There were some swings and misses on the fastball, but it doesn’t appear that he’s trying to strike anyone out. For the most part the fastball command was excellent. He was down and shooting for the corners. On the home run his command wavered. He got behind—so a change or curve wasn’t a credible option, and then elevated a fastball.
I think white angus is about right. MLB hitters will have a reasonably hard time squaring up his fastball, but it’s not clear that his fastball command will demand that hitters hit his pitch.
Viva Clemente!
Link
do you have a link to that rudy owens video? i would like to watch it
age of last winning season: 5
Wait for Super 2....
Then, immediately bring him up either to replace Maholm or Ohlendorf. Neither of the latter two individuals are going to be effective at all this year.
I just wish the Red Sox were stupid enough to do the deal that dtoddwin suggested and take Paul off our hands.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 12, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
Would the team really consider Lincoln after he just got out of Florida?
I might be wrong, but I’d think they’d want him to get some real work at Indy before trying him again in Pittsburgh.
I think....
Karstens gets this start and if Lincoln is effective in the next start he gets a chance when the turn comes up again.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
That would make the most sense in the short-term, I agree....
In June, Owens, provided he stays on course, needs to have one of the 5 spots – either Ohlendorf’s (likely) or Maholms.
Of course, that assumes that Charlie doesn’t short-circuit.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 12, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
"Wait till after the super 2"
This is a hard thing to figure at times, IIRC, from Mark’s many posts last season about it. Also, will it be relevant after this season with a new collective bargaining agreement?
I’m not sure…just asking.
If it is the same as it has been....
Then, him pitching next start would definitely start his clock early.
If it is changed in the new CBA, then its relevance can’t be determined until we see the CBA.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 12, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends what you mean by clock.
Because Owens was not on the 40 man to start the season, he is not on option right now. That makes a difference, because players who spend less than 30 days on option to start a season get a full years’ service time. Since Owens was not on option to start the season, he will get the exact number of days he is in MLB, and as long as that doesn’t exceed 172 days, he will not get a full year of service.
The 172 day mark passed already this past Sunday, so Owens will not accrue an entire year’s worth of service time this year even if brought up today.
When I think of "clock starting early", I think of the service time years, not a Super Two clock. If he comes up now and stays up, yes, of course he would be a Super Two, assuming such a thing still exists when that time comes.
But, there’s no guarantee that Owens would stay in MLB the whole year. He could make a couple of starts until Ohlie is ready to return, and then come up again in July and still avoid Super Two.
That said, I don’t think Owens should jump to MLB right now. I think he should make at least 5 or 6 successful starts in AAA before bringing him up. He’s much too valuable to risk messing with his head by rushing him.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 12, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Just checked the CBA, and I need to clarify a small mistake.
If any player is on optional assignment less than 20 days in a season, he gets credited with those days. So, since Owens is not on option now, he doesn’t get those days at the beginning of the season here. However, if he is brought up and then sent back down, he would have to be down there at least 20 days for those days to not count as service time if you’re attempting to avoid Super Two.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 12, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I am thinking if he comes up, he stays up......
Him coming up for a spot start, then going back down, would not be the route to go, in my opinion.
Once he’s up, I want him staying up.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 12, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Me too.
Right now, I think there’s a pretty good chance if he came up now, he’d have to be sent back down.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 12, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he should make at least 5 or 6 successful starts in AAA before bringing him up. He’s much too valuable to risk messing with his head by rushing him.
IAWTC
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 12, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
After all of the talk about development etc, one pretty good AAA start seems like a rush just to see what he can do, and seems like hed be leapfrogging lincoln on the org chart even though lincoln is a former 1st rounder who dominated AAA before getting a call up last year and having mixed results. Morton dominated AAA before getting ripped in the bigs also. I’d be dissapointed if odorf and maholm are still in the rotation in sept but this feels a little like shiny new toy syndrome to me
RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.
"I'D BE A CHEF"
-TONY PLUSH
by GTrain on Apr 12, 2011 2:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Lincoln didn't dominate Triple A.....
And, Owens, in my eyes from reading between the lines, is definitely above Lincoln in the orgz. eyes – as he should be, in my opinion.
Until Lincoln figures out how to throw a change up and command his too-straight fastball, he is going to continue to get hit hard.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 12, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Could very well be wrong
I recalled him pitching well prior to his call up when every one had really high hopes, right after Strasburg’s debut IIRC
RIP NATE. RIP TONY PLUSH.
"I'D BE A CHEF"
-TONY PLUSH
He started getting better K/9 rates towards the end of his AAA time....
But, when he got up to the bigs, it was obvious that his FB was too flat to get Major Leaguers out (particularly LH batters) without a change-up to keep them honest. While his CB is very good, he didn’t have control with it during his brief stint in the big leagues.
I think he is a guy that may benefit from working with Searage, as opposed to Dave Kerwin (ha), but I still think he will get hit hard if he doesn’t improve his CH.
Rudy, on the other hand, controls his pitches well and has a very good CH in my eyes. That is why I like him better, at this point.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 13, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah.
If you’re going to try to make the case, that’s the place to make it.
Would’ve liked to see a K per inning at that level. That’s the only real hole in his profile with the Curve.
hahaha
That was all I could find, Vlad!
I don’t think he was sub-4.00 anywhere else…
by insane_sanity on Apr 12, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting interview
They talked to Tim Hudson about pitching when he was young versus now. He said back “in the day”, he relied on his “stuff”. Now, he relies on command.
I think Rudy Owens could be an anomaly — a 23 year old kid that had acquired advanced command of his repertoire for his age.
I would still look to get him additional starts in AAA — not necessarily keeping an eye on his clock, but to see how the AAA workload affects him vs. AA. AAA is interesting, because he will see many AAAA bats, and it will be great to see how he approaches those players.
Eh, maybe I’m too optimistic.
Not without his fro....
I don’t think he should be called up until he has had a chance to grow that awesome blonde fro again. It should be stipulated in his contract somewhere that there is a minimum length, measured at 90 degrees from any hair growing regions of his head, that must be maintained at all times. I would propose 4" to start with and be willing to compromise down to 3".
by McGreal on Apr 12, 2011 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
that was actually a perm. he mentioned that he got that done one day because he was bored.
but yes, he should be forced to wear it again before being called up. mozeltov
NO
We aren’t winning in 2011 or 2012, maybe not in 2013 either. Do not start the arby clock or take up roster room until we are competing.
by Kosstic518 on Apr 12, 2011 3:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It would be ridiculous
to keep Owens down much longer than is good for his development. What do you want? Keep him down in AAA for 2 more years if he shows he’s ready to pitch in MLB in 2 months?
by MarkInDallas on Apr 12, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont want to see him before mid june
Preferably not until September. Why waste is clock?
by Kosstic518 on Apr 12, 2011 5:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
There's no clock advantage to bringing him up in September rather than June.
Here are the options:
1) Bringing him up now would avoid him accruing 1 year service time by the end of this season, but would ensure him to be a Super Two arb eligible player (if such a thing exists in 2014). Free agency eligible after 2017 season.
2) Bringing him up after June 4 would avoid Super Two eligibility in 2014, making 2015 his first arbitration season. Free agency eligible after 2017 season.
3) Bringing him up in September would be exactly the same scenario as #2. First arbitration season in 2015. Free agency eligible after 2017 season.
So, as far as years of control go, there’s no difference between bring him up now or in September.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 12, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Injury time counts as MLB time if the injury occurred in MLB. If he’s demoted, then the clock stops for those days. So, you could bring him up in September, but then you’d have to wait an extra month in 2012 to make up for it.
This is pretty much what happened with Walker and Pearce last year. Each was brought up shortly after the deadline for their respective service time to not accrue a full year in 2010. Pearce had less excess days than Walker, so his clock was able to be restarted first. Walker was brought up about 4 days after the date for him to not accrue a full year’s service time.
I was tracking very closely on those dates and when people were clamoring for Walker to be brought up to replace Aki, I kept a running daily tally of how many days we still had to wait for Walker to be brought up.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 13, 2011 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Kyle Drabek
Has looked very good so far. If Owens is better than Drabek, he’ll do very well.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 12, 2011 3:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Wow!
Easy there hoss. Owens has progressed very well, and I hope he is a good ML pitcher one day. But saying he could be better than Drabek? C’mon now. Nobody should be drinking the Kool-Aid that fast.
That was a statement from the FO
during the offseason. Kind of an inside joke. Though I don’t doubt that it was said in earnest, and it may yet turn out to be validated.
SIDE NOTE
Anyone see Alex Wimmers first start of the year for the Twins org?!?!?
6 batters faced, 6 BB, 4 ER, 3 WP
wow
that is impressive, not just anyone can have that little control
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." Wes Westrum
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Apr 12, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The Twins
also used the 31st overall pick on Shooter Hunt a few years back. In 154 pro innings (all at A+ or lower) he has 178 walks, 27 hit batters, and 45 wild pitches. He and Wimmers are now playing on the same team.
Shooter Hunt: THIS IS HIS YEAR.
Good first appearance… not so much tonight.
by tobynotjason on Apr 13, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I like that Arizona promoted him to A ball after the 20+ ERA in rookie ball.
Only to demote him to A-…..nice!
by insane_sanity on Apr 12, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Also good:
Remember the scene in Major League where Charlie Sheen’s character throws at the fake plywood batter because no real players will stand in against him during BP? The Dodgers actually did that with Bene.
Of course, Steve Dalkowski is, and always will be, the best of the type.
(Some Dalkowski stories, in case you’ve never heard of him before.)
Re: Bene
Here’s my question . . . what the hell did the Dodgers see in him to take him #5 overall? In three years at Division II Cal State-LA, he had a 5.62 ERA, and walked 133 batters in 147.1 IP! I know scouting may not have been quite as sophisticated back then, but seriously . . . what the hell was going on there?
Yikes
He sounds dangerous….
Move over Charlie, you may have company At your next therapy session.
My appointment is before yours…
by Krid on Apr 12, 2011 4:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let's wait until July
Or until Maholm is traded. This way you could hand him the ball every fifth day and say the job is yours kid, go get ’em!
by Krid on Apr 12, 2011 3:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Lincoln
The Pirates have publicly said he’s a candidate, but I think yesterday’s move pretty much rules him out. Since they activated him from the DL (which they didn’t really have to do) and optioned him to Indy he now has to stay down at least 10 days. I believe that means he’s not eligible to be called up until next Thursday. The Ohlendorf spot will have already taken 2 turns by then. According to the earlier reports Ohlendorf is expected back before a third turn comes up, though that could change. The only way he can be called up earlier than next Thursday is if someone else goes on the DL.
They want to activate
Lincoln. This was the expected move. A couple more starts in Indy and then maybe he comes up.
I may be being over pessimistic (or is it optimistic), but I would be really surprised if Ross only missed 2 or 3 starts. I’ll bet he isn’t back until after May 15.
The Hammer Speaks
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
I guess im just not clear here, with what the pirates are planning on doing: After Lincoln is healthy again and if he plays well, where is he going to go? Who’s spot in the majors is he going to take? doesnt seem like theyre trading anyone so soon? And even later in the season Where will there be room for him and owens? I assume that the pirates arent only going to promote Lincoln if someone gets injured, so whats the plan here?
Plan?
How about a plan of:
When a pitcher is showing real talent and success in AAA, then we worry about where he goes. You don’t plan every move you might make. Let the players dictate the plan.
by ballparkfranks on Apr 12, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Owens still has some stuff to work on
He didn’t have excellent fastball control. Even though he had a very good outing, numbers-wise, I think he doesn’t have the complete confidence in his fastball that he will have later when he gets a better feel. The last thing you’d want would be to bring him up and he doesn’t trust that he can command his fastball, starts nibbling, gets behind in counts and then either walks people or has to groove fastballs into the fat part of the zone and gets crushed.
Rudy Owens is going to be very good, but I wouldn’t promote him until he’s had 3-4 good starts in a row and is coming in with confidence.
Karstens
Situations like this one is the exact reason we have guys like Karstens and even Burres around. We had 5 starters, with our 6 and 7 guys (Lincoln and Olsen) both hurt. You hope to get into the season to get guys healthy and get their innings built up, but Ohlendorf gets injured right away. So now your choices are to bring up a guy that really isn’t ready, or has his arm strength built up, or use one of the veterans that are here for this exact purpose.
I’d like to see Lincoln pitch for a month or two in the minors working on his change-up. I’d like to see Owens get a clear handle on his command which has been kind of spotty, even yesterday. Bringing up either youngster could work, or it could force them into bad habits or overthrowing if they get into trouble. These things can lead to injuries. Not worth it.
Karstens
Karstens doesnt get enough credit. His work on friday night was great, and at this point i dont see Ross Ohlendorf much of an upgrade over him. Karstens isnt a guy you want in your rotation in the future but for right now atleast you know what youll get from him. Also he is a really good guy:
Karstens is stretched out to start after throwing 67 pitches in relief on Friday. He pitched 3 1/3
innings in that game, entering cold in the third after Ohlendorf exited with the shoulder injury.
“I’m just used to the role,” Karstens said. “I roll out of bed with a smile on my face. I get to put the big league uniform on every day and I’m proud of that.”
age of last winning season: 5
Brad Lincoln
I am really excited to watch brad lincolns progress this year. i still have pretty high hopes for him, i think kerrigan really screwd with him. He needs some change up work and his fast ball is alittle straight, but i think searage will have a diffrent mindset with him and he’ll be attacking the strike zone and throwing that sweet curve for a strike out pitch (i love lincolns curve ball). And turning out to be a really nice # 4 picther for us in our new look rotation coming in the next few years.
And ballparkfranks is right, we have karstens here for this reason, no need to rush anyone
age of last winning season: 5
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