2011 vs 2010 SP

by zogger on Apr 18, 2011 7:28 PM EDT

Yes it is just 15 games into the season but here is a comparison of the 2010 vs 2011 SP based on the HQS/QS/Avg/Poor/BlowUp metric (plus a few others).

Pitcher	Starts	HQS	QS	Avg	Poor	BlowUp	%HQS/QS/Avg	%Poor/Blowup
Correia	3	33%	33%	0%	33%	0%	67%	33%
Karstans	1	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%	100%
Maholm	3	33%	33%	33%	0%	0%	100%	0%
McDonald	3	0%	0%	33%	0%	67%	33%	67%
Morton	3	67%	33%	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%
Ohlendorf	2	0%	0%	0%	50%	50%	0%	100%
2011 Totals	15	27%	20%	13%	13%	27%	60%	40%
2010 Totals	159	19%	25%	16%	6%	35%	60%	40%

Stat	2011 Pirates	2010 Pirates
Games	15	159
Innings Pitched Per Start	5.7	5.4
Hits Allowed Per 9	8.9	10.8
Runs Allowed Per 9	4.9	5.9
BaseRunners per 9	12.7	13.9
ER Per 9	4.2	5.3
BB Per 9	3.9	3.1
SO Per 9	4.6	5.7
HR Per 9	1.1	1.2
SP Wins %	27%	21%
SP Loss %	47%	52%
SP ND %	27%	27%

My summary:

More HQS, but same basic HQS/QS/Avg=60% (League Avg is 74%)
Correia, Morton, and Maholm doing fine. The others, not so good.
Giving Up 2 less hits per 9, 1 run less per 9
Getting 1 Less KO/9 and issuing 1 more BB/9

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Sample size is too small

But we’ve been lucky. We had the worst xFIP in the league going into today. We are due for some reversion.

by Kosstic518 on Apr 18, 2011 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

Will not last with the raised BB rate and lower K rate. Morton has a crazy 68.7 GB%, which has allowed him to walk more than twice as many as he’s K’d. Fine for now, but it won’t last. McDonald is walking far too many and can’t hit his spots consistantly (see Saturday night’s box score for what that means).

Correia is obviously pitching over his head, but if he can be half as good as he’s been then he’ll be worth having around. Maholm is Maholm…great one day, mediocre the next. I used to like him but I’m tiring of the inconsistancy.

Sadly, this leaves us with 0 actual glimmers of hope, other than that maybe Morton can start to K a few more guys now that he’s got some swagger. He’s basically been dancing through the raindrops though. I actually figured the 2011 numbers would look far better than 2010, so seeing them in black & white really brings you back to reality.

by Tuckshop25 on Apr 18, 2011 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

When you say "it won't last..."

are you talking about the GB rate or his bottom line success thus far? Because the thing is, FIP and xFIP start to break when you have extreme outliers, and his GB rate is an EXTREME outlier. Watching him it’s undeniable that he’s going to tend strongly groundball. The question is whether he’ll be this extreme. If you don’t assume the awesome groundball rate “won’t last,” it does seem like he could easily post RAs better than his xFIP/FIP due to the crazy, model-breaking double play rate he’d get.

Moreover, the eyeball test say “he’s pitching well,” right? If a guy looks to be pitching well, it is sometimes the case in a SSS situation like “half of April” that it’s not the ERA that’s going to come in line with the subpar xFIP (and K/BB rates), but rather the K/BB rates that will move to better reflect the (high quality) way he’s actually pitching.

by tobynotjason on Apr 19, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm talking

Mostly about the GB rate. As long as Morton starts throwing more than 90% fastballs he’ll probably start to strike out more, and as he’s gains confidence he’ll start walking fewer. But the GB% is not going to stay that high no matter what.

Ultimately I think Charlie could turn into a major GB pitcher and have some success, but he’s going to be a solid regular not a star or HOF type pitcher. The fangraphs article that came out today brought up Carmona and Piniero as comps, and I think those are pretty reasonable ceilings for him.

by Tuckshop25 on Apr 19, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions