Brandon Wood: No Thanks
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 21, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
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PrintEven for a waiver claim, I'm not at all interested in the Pirates acquiring the recently-DFA'ed Brandon Wood.
Wood obviously has legitimate power, but his impressive-looking minor-league record is mostly the product of spending nearly his whole career in two of the craziest hitting environments in the minors - the southern portion of the California League (where he hit 43 homers as a 20-year-old in Rancho Cucamonga) and the Mountain-Time-Zone portion of the Pacific Coast League (where he logged a ton of time as a member of the Salt Lake Bees).
And even in those wacky offensive contexts, Wood exhibited serious strike-zone issues, often striking out nearly three times as much as he walked. That tendency has eaten him alive in the majors, and the awful numbers he has posted there probably aren't a fluke, as he now has 153 strikeouts and 13 walks in 172 major-league games. Those are the numbers of a guy who simply has no idea what he's doing at the plate. And the problem doesn't seem to be getting better. In 2010, he had 71 strikeouts and six walks; this year he has eight strikeouts and no walks. Wood at been at Class AAA since the Reagan administration, so it isn't like he has been rushed to the big leagues, and not once has he put up big-league numbers that show even a glimmer of hope.
Also, if you claim Wood, you've got to put him on the 25-man roster. So where do you put him? As bad as Ronny Cedeno has been, I wouldn't expect Wood to be better. And as little interest as the Pirates have shown in Josh Rodriguez so far, Rodriguez actually arguably has the more impressive recent minor-league track record, once you adjust for park effects. And since Rodriguez has some clue what he's doing at the plate, he has a better chance of success than Wood does.
I suppose you could also do something like option Steve Pearce back to Indianapolis to clear a roster spot for Wood, but at this point, I wouldn't bother. Pearce is a much better hitter.
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So . . . you guys have reservations?
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
-Historians discover in Andrew Jackson’s papers the extent of his diplomatic communications with the Native Americans.
by CptnAwesome on Apr 21, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
agreed
The pirates are basically beyond the point of taking flyers on guys like this, at least when there’s so little likelihood of success.
Redeemed.
I don’t mind them taking flyers on players, but I would prefer they be better than Wood.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 21, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Wood doesn't fly...
it barely even floats.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 21, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Nicely.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 21, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
If you claim Wood and option Pearce, you still need to clear a 40 man roster spot.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 21, 2011 2:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yeah, but that doesn’t seem like much of an obstacle, since Leroux is still on there.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 21, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a great fit
We already have a third baseman who looks like he has no idea what he’s doing at the plate.
Question comes down to....
if this were the Rule 5 draft and it was held today, would you take JRod over Wood?
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There was actually a fairly similar player to Wood available in the Rule 5 (from a skill perspective, anyway): Brandon Waring. I didn’t recommend him, and he didn’t end up getting picked.
thing is
somebody will likely offer at least a bag of balls for him, so i don’t see it as likely he’ll make to waivers, meaning the comparison is more like JRod in the rule 5 vs. minor league fodder for wood.
Adamently, but politely disagree
Charlie, I agree that he has had some issues in the bigs, but I feel like it’s more the trials and tribulations of not playing every day, and putting in the extra work on fielding a new position. Wood was a 3B in the minors and made the failed switch to SS.
I feel like with some adjustments to his approach, see Jose Bautista, where someone just gets him to start looking for pitches to pull as opposed to hit to the opposite field, he may just get his mojo back.
As far as the minor league numbers being inflated, I hear the argument, but Kendry Morales never put up similar power numbers in that league. I would say that he probably saw more pitches to hit though given his team allowed him to have Howie kendrick in front of him with Kendry Morales protecting him.
Morales’ career minor-league batting average was 50 points higher than Wood’s; they’re not really comparable players, in my opinion. As for Bautista, he always had a relatively sound approach at the plate, and Wood just doesn’t. Players like Bautista who make adjustments that suddenly translate to huge results are very rare, and Wood’s problems right now are a lot more severe than Bautista’s were.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 21, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Wood was a 3B in the minors and made the failed switch to SS.
Wood has played 586 minor league games at short and 159 at third. He’s played both positions since rookie ball, in 2003. I’d think he should have a handle on both by now.
@gorilla
just was referring to the time being consumed by doing extra work with Alfredo Griffen… he took a lot of extra time working on his defense and this extra work takes away the focus from hitting.
by VoteforPedro on Apr 21, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Who I see when I look at Brandon Wood
I get that everyone thinks Lastings Milledge or Andy Laroche here, but those guys had two common issues. Lastings broke his hammate bone (bye bye power) and Andy never could overcome his serious back issues.
I see Jose Bautista, the blue jays version. Wood has a better pedigree, but he like Bautista had someone change his approach at the plate and tinker with the swing.
http://sportshaze.com/toronto/toronto-blue-jays/jose-bautista-rebunked-2677
Bautista’s changed approach
http://baseballinsiders.com/?p=52
the curious case of Brandon Wood
Perrotto just tweeted:
#Pirates fans might get their wish and be rid of Ronny Cedeno as the Buccos are trying to trade for DFA’d #Angels INF Brandon Wood.
I think I slightly disagree with you here, Charlie. I agree that Wood is unlikely to be anything but lousy, but there is that flicker of upside that Ronny Cedeno doesn’t have. As long as we’re not going anywhere this year (and we’re not), I wouldn’t mind bringing him in. He’s unlikely to be a noticeable upgrade, but it’s just about impossible to be worse than Cedeno.
Cedeno IMO would regress to a .575-.600 OPS and -5 to -10 defense. With Wood it is more like .450-500 and -15 D.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 21, 2011 3:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Okay, so the Pirates would win 67 games instead of 68. Cedeno has zero chance of any present or future value. Wood has at least a small chance of mild future value, plus he’s got defensive ability at third base (which Pedro nor Pearce has).
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Cedeno was a high upside prospect too though.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 21, 2011 3:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And now he isn’t. Wood isn’t, either, but Wood has had less of a chance than Cedeno and is two years younger. I just don’t see the downside. I fully realize he’d probably be another Milledge, but the shred of possibility that he’s more is worth it.
Cedeno has zero chance of ever being anything but one of the worst starters in all MLB.
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don’t see the downside.
The downside is that he’s a substantial downgrade on Cedeno and he has virtually no upside potential. He’s a warm body with a gaping hole in his skill set that’ll never be filled. The Brad Eldred of shortstop.
by Vlad on Apr 21, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It's not like we would be replacing Jeter...
Cedeno seems like an upgrade at the moment, but a slight upgrade for a losing team won’t make a difference. The downside is pretty much non-existent. This would be like replacing your 2005 Honda Civic that is in decent condition and runs well with a 1967 Shelby Mustang which can run, but needs a lot of work to fulfill its potential as an amazing car. Even if no work is ever done to the car, it will still run and while it may never be perfect, why miss out on the chance of having a car like that? It would be taking a Littlefield-esque approach by staying away from Wood. Also, imo, Wood’s problems are almost purely mental and he will likely benefit a lot from a change of scenery.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
This would be like replacing your 2005 Honda Civic that is in decent condition and runs well with a 1967 Shelby Mustang which can run, but needs a lot of work to fulfill its potential as an amazing car.
Wood isn’t a 1967 Shelby Mustang. He’s a 1974 Jaguar XK-E V12 Series III with no engine and cinder blocks where the wheels should be. A car that should in theory be cool, but in practice is awful, and has no ability to get you where you need to go.
IMO.
I wonder
if Perrotto has a source for this, or if he’s just making it up like his claim last spring that Hanrahan was going to have TJ surgery.
Bob Nightengale
USA Today was on the story. I imagine that is his source.
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Would they really DFA Ronny though?
He’s making decent coin.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 21, 2011 3:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's an interesting....
question. I don’t see it happening immediately. I think the move would be giving JRod back to Cleveland. Not sure if Ronny would be a malcontent if not starting or not.
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That’s Cedeno’s own problem if he’s pissed for being on the bench. He’s been on borrowed time for a year and a half of baseball.
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
ronny's got an option next year
that i could see us declining either way, with a buyout of $100k or so.
You still talking about this?
My question: Where is Uviedo? Where is he?
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 21, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently
In AA for Toronto. 8.1 IP, 10 K, 2 BB; ERA 0.00. WHIP 0.60
Yup.
Pitched well in winter ball, and still pitching well this year, just like he always does.
He’s going to have a nice long career as a solid ML RP. But I guess we were never going to have room for him on the roster, since we needed his spot for Leroux, right?
wasnt Uviedo long gone by the time Leroux arrived? or are you just making a general point?
One of the main arguments advanced by the “no big deal” camp at the time of the trade was that we had much too much talent on hand in the system to be able to spare a roster spot for a relief arm. As such, by that reasoning, wasting him the way we did was no big deal, since he would’ve been bumped off the roster and lost on waivers anyway.
And yet, here we are in late April, and we’ve got inferior players like Leroux and D’Cutch and Karstens on the roster.
“Hey, now!”
- – Mrs. McCutchen
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 22, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Remember...
this is the same Perrotto that heard that Brad Lincoln was starting at PNC tomorrow. And Lincoln is getting slapped around by the Mud Hens as I type.
Why not dump him for Cedeno?
Even if he’s not better, he probably wouldn’t be much worse. Everyone knows the Pirates won’t compete for anything but maybe 4th or 5th in the Central this year.
Wouldn’t we rather give 350 or so at-bats to Wood and see if a change of scenery, approach, etc. can have a positive effect?
Wood’s 2 years younger than Cedeno and if by some stroke of luck he turned it around is still young enough to be with a competing Pirates team down the road. Again, Wood is in all likelihood a busted prospect, but I’d still rather snag a Brandon Wood lottery ticket than play Cedeno who has no present or future value. If he’s truly terrible we still have Rodriguez and Ciriacio, who both suck. The only benefit of Cedeno is that you can’t get much worse.
Vlad, Charlie, Others… What am I missing here?
I agree, if Wood can play consistent average defense.
Right now Ronny is known below average player. I would give Wood a chance to resurrect his career over the course of this season, as long as he can handle the position defensively. I also would hope we could keep Ronny and split time between the two.
assuming you replace Cedeno with Wood
What you’ll get is worse defense than Cedeno (perhaps a historically bad infield), and a worse bat than Cedeno. Essentially, the WAR will go into and stay negative. It will hurt Paul Maholm’s trade value, and every other starter that is a trade possibility.
Cedeno who has no present or future value
Right. He may be 0 WAR, but that has value.
That’s a fair point. I’m not sure how steep the downgrade is, though — haven’t seen Wood quite enough to know if he’s as prone to the mental mistakes as Cedeno is.
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
as a mark of how bad he is at the plate
you thought Cedeno doesnt walk much? He had 24 last year. I bet Wood would have fewer- like half those, and he’d strike out more.
I’m not sure how steep the downgrade is, though — haven’t seen Wood quite enough to know if he’s as prone to the mental mistakes as Cedeno is.
Wood’s not mentally deficient. When he makes mistakes, they’re natural outgrowths from a legitimate and fundamental lack of MLB-level skills.
If he doesn’t have skills, what made him one of the best prospects in baseball? (I believe you, but it seems a little odd to me.)
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
If he doesn’t have skills, what made him one of the best prospects in baseball?
Think of him as a version of Brad Eldred who can play shortstop. Like Eldred, Wood has big-time power, and like Eldred, Wood can crush meatballs. Unfortunately for Wood, like Eldred he has big-time holes in his swing that prevent him from leveraging that tool against pitchers with MLB-caliber command. Since he didn’t see many of those in the minors, it wasn’t commonly recognized as a significant flaw at that time.
Remember my rule about hitters with a K/AB over 25% being suspect, particularly in the low minors? Guys like Wood are the reason for it.
There is an obvious difference in his approach...
from his minor league days of success to his days of MLB misery at the plate. It seemed like he was told he HAD to hit in his debut so he began to chase almost anything. After this happened, I am sure the manager told him he needed to become more passive, so he began taking a ton of pitches. His approach has been tampered with and a new hitting instructor may be able to get him back to his old approach. It may be flawed, but it is better than what he is currently doing. Also, Wood does not lack tools. He actually has some pretty amazing tools. He is worth a shot. The bad taste of Brad Eldred is still around for many to look at Wood without bias. I will admit there are some similarities, but Wood is a much better player overall.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
on a general note
since Vlad has covered Wood… often (or it seems to me) minor league players are graded highly as prospects based on a combination of their performance in the lower levels, as well as the tools they have. However, as they move up, they need to turn tools into skills, and that often doesn’t happen.
I wonder, though, just how much the hitting environments are responsible for this. If Wood wasn’t playing in a crappy environment, where power was ridiculously easy, would he not have been lulled into false senses of adequate performance, and worked harder at an earlier age, when rectifying holes was easier?
Yeah. If I were an organization, I’d do anything to keep my Class A+ affiliate out of the southern half of the Cal League, for example. It’s still possible the problems would have gone semi-unnoticed in a more neutral environment, as they did with Chad Hermansen, but they would be harder to hide.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 21, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
It is worth noting....
that Ronny is hitting .170/.217/.189
As for this year, there is no downgrade from what we have been getting. Not possible.
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Small sample size
Over their careers, Cedeno has been a MUCH better MLB hitter than Brandon Wood.
By your standard, the Red Sox ought to drop Carl Crawford and put Wood in LF because it’s just not possible for him to be worse than Crawford’s been in the first 3 weeks of this season.
Not true. Crawford has a track record as one of baseball’s best players. Cedeno has a track record of one of its worst. This season for Cedeno will not get much better, but Crawford’s will. There’s the difference.
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Cedeno has track record of being much better than Brandon Wood
Which is all that’s relevant for the purpose of this discussion.
I just brought up Crawford to point out the small sample size of this season’s results.
Yea...
I get it. Just pointing out how atrociously bad Cedeno has been this year. Hence the “As for this year”
As for my “standard,” I haven’t expressed an opinion on Wood on this page, so how do you have any idea what I think and what does any of that have to do with Carl Crawford? They aren’t the remotely close to the same situation.
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Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
No, they're exactly the same situation
You’re arguing that “things can’t get any worse” based on 18 games worth of stats. And yet, over the long haul, Cedeno has outperformed Wood by a signinficant amount. So things can get worse and probably will if we acquire Wood and make him our starting shortstop.
If Ronny’s current production were to continue as it has the first 18 games…then David is correct…Wood would not be much worse offensively. That would be almost impossible. Defensively…we’d better be finding flyball/strikeout pitchers real quick.
I don’t expect Cedeno to continue his current production level…but anything more than the production level that we got from his predecessor is unlikely.
Always looking for a scrap?
No I didn’t say “things can’t get any worse” so don’t put it in quotes. That’s lazy and incorrect.
If you want to argue a point with me, fine. But, as I’ve said before, argue a point I make and don’t misquote me.
I wrote:
As for this year, there is no downgrade from what we have been getting
That has nothing to do with going forward. It is talking about Cedeno’s actual production so far.
You do realize that small sample sizes still represent what actually happened. While it may not indicate what will happen going forward, Cedeno’s numbers are awful thus far. That is exactly what I said. I didn’t bring up Crawford or anything else.
It’s pretty unlikely that anyone would underperform Cedeno He’s 196 our of 198 in wOBA
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That has nothing to do with going forward. It is talking about Cedeno’s actual production so far.
If we go by actual production thus far in 2011, then by moving from Cedeno to Wood, we’d lose 12 points of OPS+, along with a significant amount of defensive value.
As bad as Cedeno has been, Wood has been much worse.
2 things
1. I expect Ronny to get better and end up hitting in the region of .250/.280/.380.
2.
there is no downgrade from what we have been getting. Not possible.
Brandon Wood stats- Over 2010 and 2011, thats about 250 PA, and significantly worse than Ronny this year. Career line, too, but i m somewhat willing to say some of his early struggles may have been due to early struggles that rookies go through
about the same trade value
as 2009 version of Adam LaRoche
Sounds about right
I mean, the thing is, whoever is trading for Maholm knows what they’re getting. They’re not going to let 2 months of stats significantly alter their perceived value of him. He’s a decent back-of-the-rotation, pitch-to-contact lefty who is pretty reliable for 180+ innings. Brandon Wood doesn’t turn him from Cliff Lee into roster fodder, being a bad pitcher already did that to him. Plus it’s not like other teams wouldn’t have access to FIP and xFIP numbers to identify the effects of a dreadful defense.
So far, Wood has been worse than Cedeno, by a lot
Cedeno: .242/.282/.351 -4.1 UZR/150
Wood: .169/.197/.259 -26.0 UZR/150
Wood is about as far below Cedeno as Cedeno is below Troy Tulowitzki.
I acknowledge that Wood is absolutely awful. I’d still be willing to let him start for two months and see if he can make good on any of his perceived talent. The only loss I can see coming from it is a slight drop in Paul Maholm’s trade value, but I’m not sure two months of worse defense will do anything drastic there.
by Suffering Buc on Apr 21, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Cedeno’s approach at the plate is very encouraging. He’s not translating it to hits just yet, but he’s working pitchers deep into counts, and actually taking walks… much better than the swing at everything approach from seasons past.
Prefer Cedeno… mostly to see if he can find a comfort level with a more patient approach.
agreed
you can see that he’s trying a better approach. That said,
i don’t mind giving up on Cedeno for someone better; but not for someone that is such a long shot.
"Pitch me outside, I will hit .400. Pitch me inside, and you will not find the ball." - Roberto Clemente
Wouldn’t we rather give 350 or so at-bats to Wood and see if a change of scenery, approach, etc. can have a positive effect?
No, because it’s fairly obvious that they won’t. He just doesn’t have what it takes to hit in the majors.
Vlad, Charlie, Others… What am I missing here?
Look at his K rate throughout the minors. He has gigantic holes in his strike zone, and when he plays against MLB pitchers who can hit those holes, he’s helpless. When he plays against minor league pitchers who can’t, he’s a stud. Full stop.
He’s also a marginal defender at short, so he isn’t even giving you glove value to offset the terrible bat. It’d be significantly less damaging for us to just outright cut Cedeno and replace him with literally any of our middle infielders from AAA.
K-Rod i mean J-Rod has been lost on the field and at the plate! I take a guy who has shown promise over a guy who has shown little. We keep taking chances with guys like Milledge, Laroche and so forth we gotta land a gem eventually!
by Joey Mooney on Apr 21, 2011 3:29 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
J-Rod has been lost on the field and at the plate
Take a look at these numbers, willya? Just because you haven’t seen Wood show little doesn’t mean that he has shown promise.
Right. I don’t understand why so many just ignore the fact that he’s posted a 22 OPS+ so far in his MLB career.
I get that the guy really hasn’t had consistent playing time, but plenty of other guys get shuttled back and forth between the big leagues and AAA and manage to hit better than most pitchers.
Can we agree that an organizational change can benefit a player?
I don’t think Wood will ever become a star, but who knows? In a lost season it’s going to really bad if Wood can ressurect his career on another team that isn’t the Pirates.
Well, he hasn't had much of one to ressurect..
you guys get my point tho!
that's not really my argument though
Wood hasn’t played as badly as he has because things havent come together- he’s played this badly because he has big holes in his game. Unless the Pirates see something that could be a quick fix, its not worth it.
Change of scenery can benefit a player, when he’s fundamentally OK, just isnt putting things together. I could see an argument for trying to pick up Ka’aihue, for instance, while his value is low, because I think he is a better player than what he’s done. Wood, however, has a long track record through the minors, and all of it says he is gonna keep K-ing and not walking, and pitchers aint gonna give him anything to hit.
An organizational change COULD help...
…but he has to stay on the 25 man, which means you have to get rid of someone, who, by the very fact that they’re an MLB player not named Brandon Wood, is better than Brandon Wood.
If we could grab him and stash him in the minors while we see if we can figure out a way to solve the guy, then by all means. But as it stands, you’ve got to demote or drop someone who is significantly better.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
I know it doesn't really belong here, but...
Just a quick note: McCutchen is back with the team and playing tonight.
I don't understand the enthusiasm...
…for throwing shit at a wall and seeing whether it sticks.
Wood doesn’t have the skills to be a MLB player. Full stop. This isn’t taking a reasonable gamble on a guy with some skills, like LaRoche or Milledge. This is bringing in a guy who was a prospect ages ago, but has long since shown that he’ll never be anything worth having, like Hayden Penn.
Wood isn’t a guy with upside. He’s a below-replacement-level player, a honeypot for scouts who fall in love with the one tool he’s got and ignore the rest of the package.
How do you know he doesnt have the skill set to be a MLB player?
Less than 500 AB’s in the Majors, i dont think thats enough to write someone off, Brandon Phillips comes to mind , he was a lost prospect…Im not saying Brandon Wood will be anything ever, im just saying less than 500 AB’s in the majors is too early to write off a former 1st rd pick, 40 plus homer, top 5 prospect in all of baseball.
Phillips didn’t strike out nearly as much. Nor did he perform as horribly in limited major league action.
by thecheeseisblue on Apr 21, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not just his major-league numbers. His minor-league performances, while superficially fine, show exactly why he’s having problems in the majors – he can’t control the strike zone.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Apr 21, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
sometimes though.......
….a simple change of scenery and coaching can change the fortunes of a player. Clint has a track record of helping hitters improve so what’s the real cost here?? Now if Wood has struggled on the field and his attitudes sucks then that’s a different story…..i think the FO has to seriously consider this especially if it is determined this kid wants to improve and will work hard to do so……
by Marooned Pirate on Apr 21, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Clint has a track record of helping hitters improve so what’s the real cost here?
Maybe 20 runs or so, over the course of the season. More, if you include the opportunity cost of going with Wood rather than pursuing an alternative who’s actually better than Cedeno.
is the FO......
…chasing anyone that we know is hands-down, guranteed w/ all the statistical back-up to prove is better then Cedeno; he who is south of the Mendoza line and suffers from brain farts!! LOL! Listen, i’m all for improving and if a trade is there i say go for it but, if nothing is on the horizon I can’t see how this claim hurts; we’re already a sinking ship so what one more hole in the hull??
by Marooned Pirate on Apr 22, 2011 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions
is the FO…… …chasing anyone that we know is hands-down, guranteed w/ all the statistical back-up to prove is better then Cedeno
They certainly were over the offseason – I doubt they’ve given up hope since then.
we’re already a sinking ship so what one more hole in the hull??
Five extra minutes spent treading water could be the difference between getting picked up by a passing ship or bitten in half by a shark.
How do you know he doesnt have the skill set to be a MLB player?
Observation combined with past performance.
It’s not just his MLB troubles. Wood’s never had any command of the strike zone. You can get away with that shit in A+, but not in MLB.
Okay
so if your saying if he would somehow discover some plate recognition and strike zone judgment, he could live up to his potential or no?
i'm not sure that's something that one can learn over time
thats a natural talent that you either have, or you dont, IMO
somewhat
a lot of it has to deal with being a head guess, guessing pitches all the time, like Pedro does, he takes cock shot fastball cause hes guessing off speed, The kid has been playing baseball his whole life im sure he knows a ball from a strike…It just a matter of him not being a head case and swinging at the right pitches…All Mental
Why don't you understand the enthusiasm, Vlad...
the Pirates FO has been throwing crap at a wall to see if it sticks for a long time now. That’s how we ended up with most of our roster.
pirates had crap stickin to the wall long before FC and NH even got here
this is a newer, fresher, less stinky wall o’ duece
by white angus on Apr 21, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Do I think Wood will ever be good or reach any of his potential? No.
Do I think Wood will be a significant downgrade from Cedeno? Yes.
Do I think picking up Wood will be a colossal waste of time? Yes.
Am I nonetheless intrigued by a shiny new toy, and as a result wouldn’t be too bereft over picking him up? Yes.
by thecheeseisblue on Apr 21, 2011 4:10 PM EDT reply actions
Brandon Wood talent wise
Is a sociopath’s wet dream
PASS!
Pre-season ZiPS, in case it wakes some people up:
Brandon Wood, 2011: .222/.272/.370, for a 71 OPS+.
That puts him even with Ciriaco and Gorkys, and one point of OPS+ above Jaramillo. With a well-below-average glove, unlike all three of those guys.
For another point of reference, that’s one point of OPS+ below the 2011 projection for Bobby Crosby. Or, to put it yet another way, one point of OPS+ below the 2011 projection for Luke Carlin, our second-string catcher from AAA last year. Or, to put it yet another, one point of OPS+ above the 2011 projection for Jason Kendall.
Etc.
If you update ZiPS to include 2011's numbers-to-date...
…his forward projection drops to .217/.262/.360.
Zips gave Ronny a really generous line
Had him basically repeating 2010.
I dont buy that Wood projection, either. Their both way too high.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 21, 2011 5:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not a good idea.
We already have living proof of the cautionary value of strikeouts in the minors on the roster. My criteria is more stringent than Vlad’s. I am always very skeptical about guys who strike out in more than 20% of ABs.
Huntington has talked about the importance of limiting Ks as an offense. If he picks up Wood, you have to question his actual dedication to that concept.
Wood
Whether or not the Pirates should pick him up really comes down to scouting. He has actually showed some ability to control the zone in the minors, so if the problems at the ML level are mental and/or mechanical, the Pirates should definitely claim him and give him a shot. Same deal on the defensive side: if the scouts think he can handle SS, give him a chance. I think you can make arguments either pro or con based on the track record and stats, but he does have some tools so ultimately the question needs to be whether his current problems are fixable. You just have to trust your scouts to answer that.
The only positive thing I can say is if he hits waivers, the player cost is low (if you waive Leroux (when you still have Boyer and Sinkbeil) and option Pearce.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 21, 2011 6:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He has actually showed some ability to control the zone in the minors…
Aren’t you the guy who was complaining in this thread that Starling Marte’s K rate and walk rate were “bad”? Wood’s only had one season where he had one BB per 10 PA, and in that season, he struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats. In the majors, he’s got 13 BB and 153 K. He makes Marte look like Eddie Joost.
ummm . . .
Wood and Marte had similar K rates in the lower minors, but Wood walked about 170% as much. His strike zone control was vastly better than Marte’s, and he was also younger at every level. I agree that Wood’s strikeout rates were/are a concern, but he did, as I said, show some ability to control the zone in the minors. His K rates improved quite a bit in his last two full years in AAA, for instance, and he always had average-ish walk rates.
He hasn’t controlled the zone in the majors, which is cause for concern, but as I said, if scouts think it’s fixable he’s worth a shot. Just like Marte’s not an organizational player because the scouts see that he has a good tools and a ton of upside.
Wood and Marte had similar K rates in the lower minors, but Wood walked about 170% as much. His strike zone control was vastly better than Marte’s, and he was also younger at every level.
Which would be a great point if both were unknowns heading into the future. But we already know that Wood’s career went pear-shaped after that point, while you only suspect that Marte’s is going to do so.
(It’s also kind of important that Wood’s low-minors sample size is much, much larger than Marte’s, and therefore likely a much more accurate indicator of his true-talent level of ability.)
I agree that Wood’s strikeout rates were/are a concern, but he did, as I said, show some ability to control the zone in the minors.
He never had a season where he had both a solid BB rate and a solid K rate at the same time.
His K rates improved quite a bit in his last two full years in AAA, for instance…
Improved performances by players repeating levels need to be taken with a large grain of salt, for precisely this reason.
He hasn’t controlled the zone in the majors, which is cause for concern, but as I said, if scouts think it’s fixable he’s worth a shot. Just like Marte’s not an organizational player because the scouts see that he has a good tools and a ton of upside
Tools are much more of a reason for optimism in a 22-year-old than in a 26-year-old. A 26-year-old needs baseball skills, and Wood doesn’t have many of those.
If the scouts think they can fix him, fine, go for it, but personally I’m not seeing an easy fix here.
Well, yeah.
The coaching staff gets paid to do this for a living, and they’re much better at this than I am. If they see something fixable that I missed, that’d be awesome.
Not holding my breath on it, though.
not holding my breath
I’m not either. But he’s definitely worth a shot if someone sees something in him.
I don't think it would be awful........
…….to give him a shot “IF” the coaches feel they can work with him…..he is intriguing so i wouldn’t dismiss him out of hand…..we are still the Pirates afterall!!
by Marooned Pirate on Apr 21, 2011 6:57 PM EDT reply actions
But you'd have to work with him in the Majors
Not the minors. In which case, by definition basically, you have to cut ties with someone significantly better than him for an experiment that will likely fail.
If you can do that in the minors, then by all means. But Wood’s out of options.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
dammit Neal
Please throw away the 2006 baseball america prospect book..at least update to the 2008/2009 book.
by SHOOTFOR2010 on Apr 21, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions
John Sickels says he is worth the pick-up......
I trust him more than most.
Plus, like epoc said, he has shown the ability to control the strike-zone in the minors for periods of time, resulting in nearly a 9% BB rate in one of his years in Milb.
Regardless of your opinion, I can’t understand the ‘strong opinion’ one way or the other that most in this thread are taking. It’s a position (SS) where we have the unfortunate luxury of trying different things with different people. I wouldn’t be upset if we tried this route….
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 21, 2011 10:33 PM EDT reply actions
in nearly a 9% BB rate in one of his years in Milb
That’s not a particularly high standard. Especially for a guy in his ninth pro season.
I can’t understand the ‘strong opinion’ one way or the other that most in this thread are taking.
He’s a below-replacement-level player. The position playing equivalent of Pat Mahomes or Don Wengert. If I wanted to see a guy who belonged in AA, I’d drive to Altoona.
Seems a bit strong, but we shall see....
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Apr 21, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah dont sign him....
Charlie, Vlad and the boys are right…….Josh Rodriguez, Crotta two guys that YOU WONT HEAR OF AGAIN after this year! Of course rolling the dice on anyone else who MIGHT ACTUALLY have upside is stooopid, right guys? .
by yeahyeahyeah85 on Apr 21, 2011 10:42 PM EDT reply actions
You realize that Wood has been running on 9 years of "upside," right?
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Consider the source...
this is the poster who thinks even meek has “upside,” too.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 22, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
if even meek is 12
Then that poster is 7.
by BadAndy on Apr 22, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Worst Player Ever?
FWIW, Here’s Rob Neyer from a couple weeks back saying that you could make a pretty convincing argument that Brandon Wood is the worst player ever. He drops all sorts of caveats, but that fact that you can reasonably debate the issue is, um, worrisome.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/4/8/2097934/making-sense-of-brandon-wood
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
to quote a commenter on that site
Brandon Wood’s major league equivlency for his abs at AAA Salt Lake suggest a .230 with a .283ob and .418 slugging pct.
as Charlie pointed out, even his decent minor league stats seem quite inflated.
153 strikeouts and 13 walks
That is stunning. How is that even possible? However, I guess I wouldn’t have a problem with giving him a shot but I don’t see how he can possibly improve at the plate.
Proud fan of Pittsburgh's professional sports teams and the Pirates too.
by Black&GoldTrain on Apr 22, 2011 3:00 AM EDT reply actions
The only way it makes sense to take a flyer on Wood
is if the Pirates have decided that JRod is not someone they want to pursue further. Other than that, picking up Wood would be a total head scratcher.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 22, 2011 3:03 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
unless
I understand all the arguments against Wood, but he was a top prospect for a long time for a good reason. Shortstops who could hit 30 homers are very rare.
Do you not think that if the Pirates’ scouts are all saying, “This guy still has a lot of talent. He needs a change of scenery and some work on his swing mechanics, but he could still be pretty good,” that the Pirates shouldn’t take a shot on that?
I don’t really see it as much of a head-scratcher either way. There are obvious reasons to do it, and equally obvious reasons not to do it. If they do it, we’ll know why.
The head scratcher part
is if they cast aside anyone except JRod.
by MarkInDallas on Apr 22, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Really, I'm shocked that so many people are interested in this guy
Take 2010 Andy LaRoche, subtract about 150 points of OPS and that’s Brandon Wood.
Blech.
Fangraphs showing how unlikely it is that young players with extreme K numbers ever figure it out.
An ominous sign for Pedro as well unless he gets his ship righted quickly.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/will-brandon-wood-figure-things-out/
Place your votes for if wood is claimed, who goes:
Rodriguez, Pearce, or Ronny.
JRod looked good at short last night, so I’d actually prob go with Ronny. Dropping JRod this early is a (minor) mistake IMO
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 22, 2011 10:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Disagree strongly.
There is no way on Earth Day that the Pirates are going to “dump” Cedeno for Wood.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 22, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I dunno.
It sounds like a waste of time even giving him playing time. But since there’s really nothing at shortstop until Chase d’Arnaud gets to Pittsburgh, I suppose there are worse things the Pirates could do.
There is no love in the World. There's only pain.
I LIKE IT!!!
Career .284 hitter in the minors with 161 homeruns.
Plus it isn’t that much of a risk, Ronny Cedeno is a below average SS. Rodriguez, Ciraco, & Chase could duplicate his weak production. Wood is a kid that if he gets it together could be a power hitting SS, which in the Pirates situation you have to take a chance on him. Say we don’t claim him and he lives up to his potential….it will be yet another sad moment for the franchise. Lets GO BUCS!!!
It looks like it's gonna happen
So all this debate will be moot….but….
He’s really just not a good baseball player. Period. He is significantly worse than anyone on the Pirates Major League roster, and probably even worse than our Shortstops in the high minors.
He just isn’t good. I guess there’s a slim chance he could turn it around, but he’s been around for nine years and it hasn’t happened.
Santa Roberto Clemente
Ora Pro Nobis
FireRickReilly
Another reason not to sign him
[And I’m sorry if this was said way upthread]
The only way he could improve would be with lots and lots of PAs. As bad as this team is, as frustrating as Cedeno is, we shouldn’t be running a guy this bad out there every day. And spot-starting him will IMO accomplish nothing at all.
It’s 12:37. Does that mean that we’ve dodged this bullet?
by JRoth95 on Apr 22, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
@ JRoth
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Apr 22, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
At this point, not-Ronny Cedeno is probably your best player to man SS. I’m not a big fan of Brandon Wood myself, but if you have the chance to pick him for free it’s hard to criticize that move. You never know, I mean, this could end up being like Brandon Phillips in Cincy. And right now, the Pirates are in the kind of position to take fliers on guys like this. It’s a no-lose situation.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 22, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions
Sadly
Ronny is the best SS the Pirates have right now. And Phillips isn’t really a good comparison; he was 22 when he struggled with the Indians as their everyday 2B.
Yes
but he was 25 when the Reds got him for a song and gave him regular ABs. I only make the comparison in respect to the way both players were highly-touted prospects who struggled mightily for a few years with their original team. They were both bought low by a team on the rebuild. Phillips turned into one the best 2Bs in the NL, and hopefully Wood can do something similar for the Pirates. Not saying it will or that the chances are even decent for it happening, but the parallels are interesting.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 22, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
For the record, I'd rather just make JRod starter and wave goodbye to Ronny.
by Adam Reynolds on Apr 22, 2011 1:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Charlie loves cedeno?
Cedeno hits for a week when his job is threatened and then resumes his terrible play. He should be long gone by next year, D’naurd has shown nothing, maybe less than nothing last year and to start this year.
So why is bringing in a past top prospect w/ little MLB actual playing time for free a bad move?
There is no SS in this organization that is MLB worthy unless Holt steps up even further and he is a couple years away.
Wood is the perfect type of risk/reward gamble that this club needs to take.
The risk? That we dont watch a terrible Cedeno play out his last season here(probably in the MLB) while we lose 90 plus games?
A change of scenery may allow him to reach his potential and if it doesn’t, we still win by not having to watch Cedeno out there on a daily basis.
Rumors of Doumit going to Boston heating up, a friend said the rumor in Boston is Bowden, a AAA converted relief pitcher.
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