Andrew McCutchen In Extension Talks With Pirates
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 2, 2011 1:46 AM EDT
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PrintThe Pirates are in contract extension talks with Andrew McCutchen, Dejan Kovacevic reports. McCutchen will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after 2012, assuming he isn't a Super Two. If he isn't signed to an extension, he'll be eligible for free agency after 2015. It appears, unfortunately, that the type of extension McCutchen and the Pirates are discussing would not buy out any free agency years.
UPDATE 4:57 AM: The more I think about it, the more I think signing McCutchen for exactly four years would be an actively bad idea, since it would pretty much guarantee that McCutchen would leave Pittsburgh after the 2015 season. After that point, he would really have no incentive to stick around unless the Pirates were willing to pay market price for his services. If the Bucs signed him to a four-year deal, they might save a few million bucks over what he would make in arbitration, but that's all they would get out of it. If they make him wait, he would have to go year to year, and he'd have to sweat the possibility that he'd blow out his knee or something before he got that big multi-year payday. He'll therefore have at least some incentive to sign away a year or two of his free agency years in order to get that first big-money contract. The Pirates would be making a mistake by not at least sneaking one extra year in at the end of any contract McCutchen might sign.
Assuming the Pirates sign McCutchen to a four-year extension, what might that look like? Assuming (lots of assuming going on here, and sorry about that) McCutchen won't be a Super Two, he would make around $460,000 in 2012.
But what about the next two years? Before the 2010 season, the Dodgers signed Matt Kemp, who at the time was similar to McCutchen today in his athleticism, future potential, and overall value, to a two-year, $11 million deal that bought out his first two years of arbitration.
Curtis Granderson signed an extension for the Tigers in 2008, before his last pre-arbitration season. Granderson's career got off to a brilliant start, and he posted a WAR of 7.4 in 2007, compared to 3.4 for McCutchen last season. But Granderson was 26 at the time, so he had less headroom than the younger McCutchen does now. Granderson's deal was for five years and $30.25 million, with the pre-arbitration season and the three arbitration seasons costing $18.25 million.
There are somewhat more complicated cases to look at, like the Jay Bruce deal, which is six years and $51 million, buys out three free agency years, and is somewhat front-loaded, or the Justin Upton deal. But the Kemp and Granderson contracts provide a pretty good framework for what to expect here, assuming that the Pirates aren't buying out any free agency years. Basically, if you start with Kemp's $11 million, and add about $8 million for a final arbitration year and about $1 million for his last pre-arbitration year in 2012, that would mean that McCutchen's deal would be something like four years, $20 million.
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I see no point to it unless they get a FA year or two out of it. I’ve never understood why fans go into ecstasy when a team signs a player for years that it controls anyway.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on May 2, 2011 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wrote the “Yes please!” before I realized FA years wouldn’t be involved. I’m revising now.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 2, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
If it’s just FA year, I don’t see why fans should care. Yeah, the Pirates get cost certainty, but what’s that to me?
I noticed Dejan explained it by saying that many fans don’t realize that a team controls a player’s first six years.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on May 2, 2011 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I think they also think that a four-year contract assures McCutchen would actually be in Pittsburgh for four more years. If it’s a four-year deal, the proposed McCutchen deal would be somewhat similar to the extension Jason Bay signed with Pittsburgh, and obviously, he didn’t last through its duration.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 2, 2011 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
In other words, fans don’t understand that a player is committed for the 0-6 years with or without a contract extension.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on May 2, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
whether this is true or not, but I have to believe that a fan has some sense of this and even a casual fan might have a general idea that the team has the player for some period of time.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
It's symbolic of commitment
I agree most fans have at least some sense that a player has to stay with the team for a certain length of time. But the absence of a multi-year deal symbolizes (again, to the casual fan) that the team is not committed and might trade the player at any time. A multi-year deal, even if only through arb years, symbolizes that the team is committed to the player.
Like with Nate McLouth. The backlash on that trade was partly the front office saying the wrong thing at the time of signing, but also because it made fans and talk-radio hosts (other than you) and callers say, "but but but why did you just sign him to a “long-term” deal then? Boo-hoo. I thought he’d be here forever, sniffle, why else would they sign him to such a big and long contract?"
I prefer the Boston model.
No extension that doesn’t include at least one free agent year. In the linked piece, it’s not clear if this is just DK’s speculation that this is the most likely scenario or if this is actually the extent of the talks.
Obviously, with Cutch saying he is willing to be here his whole career and then refusing to sign an extension into FA years, one of these things doesn’t jive with the other.
Yeah, the more I think about it, you’re right. Doing a four-year deal basically guarantees McCutchen would be gone after 2015. The few million bucks the Pirates might save probably aren’t worth it.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 2, 2011 5:03 AM EDT up reply actions
it sounded like DK's speculation to me
I mean, if Coonnelly didn’t comment, and McCutchen didn’t divulge details, what else could it be?
Might be wishful thinking on my part though.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 2, 2011 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions
McCutchen will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after 2012, assuming he isn’t a Super Two.
Could this be one of their primary concerns? Seems to if they sign him for the 4 remaining team control years, the thinking could be worst case scenario (for the next 4 years) they save a few million and if he would have been a Super Two, they save significantly more than that.
Obviously this would only make solid sense if (a) the Pirates thought there was a legitimate chance he’d be a Super Two guy and (b) they don’t think they have much of a shot of getting FA years in a deal (before he hits FA).
Plus, all those factors considered, maybe NH feels like he’d rather try and save the multi-million over the course of the next 4 years and do something with it to contend, like sign an outside FA or sign someone who (pure speculation) is more willing to sign long term (Walker, Tabata?)
It’s been reiterated here many times before, and I agree; McCutchen is the best piece of the core to build around long term. He’s not a Boras client (gives him a leg up on Alvarez), he should age the best, frankly he’s the best player, and he currently gets FA earlier than any other player (part of the core 4). Unfortunately, that doesn’t always mean that he’s the best option to pursue for a myriad of factors, some of which I tried to highlight above.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 2, 2011 6:33 AM EDT reply actions
Regarding Super Two
If Cutch were to sign an extension soon, there would no doubt be a clause in the contract that says Cutch would make X amount if he is Super Two, Y amount if he is not. Neither party will “take a gamble” and assume Cutch would or would not be a Super Two.
Highly unlikely,
I’ve never heard of a contract drawn up that way and would be interested to even know if it would be acceptable to MLB.
Mark, what is the day that Super 2 status is released?
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
That's how the did Braun's contract
“If [Braun] qualifies as a “Super 2” arbitration-eligible player following the 2009 season, the total value of the deal will jump from $45 million to $51 million."
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080516&content_id=2711958&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp
Longoria too
Longoria is making $4.5MM this year instead of $2MM because he qualified for super two.
Since this is a business
I’d recommend approaching it as a business decision. I liked Roxgirl’s discussion of rational choice theory, linked in Charlie’s Five Questions piece on the Rockies when they were about to come to town a couple of weeks back.
If, in the Pirates’ estimation, signing McCutchen to a contract extension under whatever terms results in greater revenues than otherwise, they should go for it. Kind of like Micawber’s Law applied to baseball. Looking at it from the player’s perspective, balancing his desire for security and his calculation that one of the higher payroll clubs might need his services a few years down the road, he’ll come up with his figure. If the two parties can meet somewhere between their respective figures, Deal!
If it was me, I’d be keeping an eye on the outlines of the next CBA. I have a feeling some things are going to change. After all, why should Football and Basketball have all the fun?!
Gotta go to work now.
Lino Donoso
Well
their guess is about a 6yr deal worth more than 52mil if Cutch stays healthy all season. I would be pleased with a deal of this type.
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
blah, here is the link
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/05/pirates-mccutchen-discussing-extension.html
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
So that's two free agent years?
I like..
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
by CW on May 2, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
well that seems to just be their speculation/take/idea on the whole thing…i like their speculation a lot better than DKs though
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Didnt DK also speculate at Pedro's 50lb weight gain this offseason...
without even seeing the man? i believe every single Pirates writer chimed in on his fatness. im saying this because, we really shouldnt “read” into anything a writer says before its an official announcement.
seems to be more writers out there looking to scoop a story first instead of waiting for the actual facts these days.
He did
DK doesn’t report facts, only opinions. This is well established at this point.
On top of that his opinions are terrible, pretty amazing for a guy to have been around the game for as long as he has without improving his skills. You can make a good argument he has gotten worse over time.
by Kosstic518 on May 2, 2011 12:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Link?
I don’t remember DK saying he was 50 lbs overweight. That would be out of the ordinary for him.
DK doesn’t report facts, only opinions.
This is far from the truth. He reports many facts. It is true that he is working more opinion pieces into his blog but saying he doesn’t report facts is WAY, WAY off!
Fact and opinion
His pieces contain both, which is no problem, but sometimes it is hard to know what’s supposed to be fact and what’s supposed to opinion just by reading his stories.
For example:
The most likely type of extension would be one that carries McCutchen through next season, plus his three arbitration years.
Is this fact or opinion? Who said it was “the most likely type of extension”? Did McCutchen or his agent indicate that they weren’t interested in signing away any FA years? Did Coonelly say something that led him to believe this? Just DK’s personal opinion? You just can’t tell based on the article whether this statement is fact, fact-based opinion or pure speculation.
Going by previous track record,
the most likely type of extension this FO would try for is one that includes 1 or 2 option years like they’ve given to many players. They have never picked one of those options up, but they do try to get them in case the player breaks out and is worth that elevated dollar amount.
That was exactly my thought
and I was thinking hmm he will probably get an option in the $16m range.
So if you combine Charlie’s proposed deal with what I think will happen, you get exactly what MLBTR suggested 6yr/$52m.
i didnt mean DK said Pedro was 50lbs overweight. i exaggerated the numbers there.
why? because everyone else exaggerated them.
Gotta get some FA years
This team is PR nightmare, but FINALLY they will be able to show people “Here, we waited until we had a player worth ponying up for and we did.” If anything, it would be refreshing to feel safe buying a player jersey again. Casual fans (or most fans) are so cautious getting attached to any player, if they make a move that ensures Cutch will be here for the next 6 years and he plays up to his potential, he’s not looking at just a nice payday, he’s looking at being our Crosby, Roesthlisberger in the eyes of Pittsburgh sports fans who haven’t had a face for the Pirates in forever.
by ATribeCalledGreg on May 2, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions
Regardless if they cover a few years of FA the casual fan will have no idea whether the contract was good or not, they will simply here “new contract” (or something of the sort) and think the Pirates made a great move, PR was any deal is a good deal to attract the casual fan.
To us here, we know the difference and I would hope the Pirates do too. Two years buyout of FA would be nice and I dont think thats asking for much.
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Don't forget McLouth...
we had him for a couple of free agent years and still traded him. Extending Cutch won’t prove anything to the fan that doesn’t trust the front office. Only winning will.
with all due respect to mclouth
he was never the prospect Cutch was, and his so called long term deal will be pittance to what Cutch will be receiving.
probably looking at a 6-8 yr deal if the money is right
You don't have to tell me that...
We were talking about winning the trust of the casual fan, not the fine readers of Buc’s Dugout!
No. The PIrates just had one option year for $10.65M in the McLouth deal.
Doesn’t seem like Atlanta will pick that up next year. They’ll be paying the $1.25M buyout.
That's why I hate the phrase
“contract extension”. To me, an “extension” is signing a guy beyond what he is already signed for (which in Cutch’s case would be years beyond the team’s control).
I mean, I understand that guys like McCutchen are on one-year contracts, but still calling it an “extension” seems like the wrong word.
I guess technically we don't have to offer him arbitration
so we don’t gain years of control but it does guarantee we will not let him walk during those years.
Here, we waited until we had a player worth ponying up for and we did.
I really wish they would have ponied up for that Kendal guy. Then he would have spent his whole career in Pittsburgh.
Put on your dancin' shoes.
That's the risk, isn't it?
If the Pirates pay for McCutchen and he injures himself, the contract becomes an albatross. If they fail to offer him a long-term contract, the haters label Nutting as too cheap to own the Pirates.
The Pirates ought to do what’s best for the team on the field without also doing anything financially reckless. Let the haters hate. It’s what they like to do.
s.zielinski
How else can we get studs in their FA years?
The incentive Cutch has to sign an extension is that he gets set for life. That is huge leverage that the Bucs have. “Sign this $60 million contract now and never worry about money again.” Cutch is already a very good player and he has MVP upside. We can’t sign any comparable player on the open market in his FA years. We have to take advantage of this unique situation.
Agreed...
but the Bucs need to be real selective with whom they make offers to. As stated earlier McCutchen seems to fit the bill because he has the profile to age well. I would be concerned with offering extensions (big money) to Alvarez or Tabata because I don’t think either has the body type to age gracefully and Tabata has that hammy thing. Tabata isn’t in the Alvarez area when it comes to body type but I do believe he will fill out and some point and lose speed. If he is not hitting for power at that point he is not as valuable. Again, it pays to take this risk for the front office but they have to be extremely selective with who they make offers to.
Hammy thing?
The thing he’s missed 17 innings from so far? Yeah, better call up Marte FAST
by ATribeCalledGreg on May 2, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Next time...
you may want to do some fact checking before being a douche. He had hammy problems last year and throughout his minor league career.
Agreed
I wouldn’t look into extending any of the other “Big Four” at this moment. Like Pedro, Cutch’s upside is enormous (even higher than Pedro because of his speed). But unlike Pedro, Cutch is already a very good player with a sample size to prove it.
Tabata
After Cutch I would focus on Tabata and Walker in that order. I would sign Tabata ASAP.
Yinzers uber alles
I agreed
Tabata comes after Cutch, but man from a pure baseball standpoint I don’t like extending Walker right now. His defense has him hanging on by a thread at 2B (-18.0 UZR/150 so far for his career) and he’s hit over his head last year and so far this year (.340 BABIP last year and .368 BABIP so far this year – both of which will come down a bit), inflating his value.
Obviously you have to extend him from a PR standpoint cause of the hometown thing.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 2, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
no, you don't have to extend him
Walker is the kind of guy that you might want to get signed through arb years, so there’s cost certainty, which might help in flipping him to another team.
Of course, I doubt Walker gets traded anytime soon :-) the backlash would be unprecedented if that happened.
That's
what I’m saying. If Walker was from Nevada, Tennessee, or any place outside of Western Pa. there’s no need to keep him around. However, its the right move to keep him around for his entire career if it can be done at a decent cost.
The revenue and fan goodwill that will be generated makes Walker more valuable than someone of a similar skill set. Just think Joe Mauer.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 2, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
no offense, but if Mauer put up numbers similar to Walker so far, the twins fans wouldnt revolt that much.
when walker wins batting titles, gold gloves and bangs miss pennsylvania, THEN the argument would be valid.
Considering Tabata's age, I think he has one of the best futures.
The guy is definitely going to hit for power and he’ll remain very productive for at least into his late 20’s, which will mean if we can get him for 8 or 9 years, we should do it.
The problem I see is
Tabata’s future seems much harder to project than Cutch’s. When Tabata hits his FA years, how much do we think he will be worth? A speedster who can hit ~.290-.300 with little power and demand around $8-$10 million, or a 5-tool stud who hits for power and is more in the $15-$20 million range? I love the idea of locking up Tabata for the long-term, but it all depends on how much Tabata thinks he is worth.
Of course I am talking about Tabata's projected ceiling
We all know injuries can happen, that’s not really the point.
the only problem im seeing with Tabata is that his swing is different now than at the beginning of the season
tell me if im wrong, and please look at some tape if you have too, but it looks like hes up there wailing! he right shoulder is dropping down like hes trying to lift the ball in the air, instead of driving down through the ball like he did earlier.
anyone help on this?
yeah, please do.
it may be me, but his swing is looking more violent with a slight uppercut. i have HDTV, and the AGH camera doesnt miss anything
i didnt look at any tape
but I’ve had the impression Tabata is swinging harder recently. I thought from the live games, that his head moved earlier a couple of times, and it seems to me like he’s trying to hit the ball too hard. I don’t know whether there is a mechanical change happening more frequently.
youve seen it too, right???
his AB’s look different. im trying to pin point it but im not online techy enough to get it done.
yeah
or i think i did.
But my knowledge of swing mechanics etc is very limited, so I leave those to the pros!
Of course, it is not necessary to talk Tabata extension until after this season really.
But, I think every player goes through periods where their swing or timing is not perfect. You project based on the makeup, overall skill and drive of the player to make the adjustments needed to stay on top of his game.
For me, I think Tabata is the real deal who will do what is needed. As for speed, take a look at Marlon Byrd to see how I would project Tabata to age. Byrd is very similar in the sense he has a thick lower half, but he has no problems getting the wheels going.
Like Z said it's a risk...
but let’s not forget that before Kendall got hurt he was one of the best, if not the best, catchers in baseball. He was just entering his prime and his numbers rivaled Mauer’s at roughly the same point in their careers. People forget just how good Kendall was and he most likely would have outperformed his contract had he not been hurt. Cutch looks like he is on the verge of stardom to me so I’d like to see him locked up. But if history shows it only takes one stroke of bad luck to make a great contract into an albatross.
i dont think people forget how good Kendall was in his hey day.
he was good. but he wasnt Mauer. not even close. the only catcher out there even close to Mauer would be Piazza, and thats just with the bat.
sorry Jason Kendall, but you were not Mauer ver 1.0
Actually, he was very close to Mauer's offensive production
No player is ever exactly the same as another player, but those two were very similar.
Here are their OPS+ scores, ages 22 – 26:
Kendall: 101, 114, 131. 136, 124
Mauer: 107, 144, 118, 134, 170
Other than Mauer’s monster year in 2009, they’re pretty much the same guy.
Go take a another look Angus...
as maguro pointed out they were really close. Look at Fangraph’s wOBA’s and WAR for both; again scary close.
i told you guys, im not a METRIC head
this is all i need to know: Mauer has won 3 batting titles. no other catcher has won more than 1.
that alone is special.
not $184MM special, but still special.
>:-D
Ah, so batting titles are all that matter
Guess you think Chase Utley can’t compare to Freddy Sanchez as a second baseman, too.
ahhhhhhh, way to twist things around, pahdnuh
if you want to compare them, then lets simplifiy it…
Utley, when healthy, is a player you build around
Sanchez, when healthy, is a player a contending team will trade for to help the current ballclub
thaz it.
I lived in Spain during the Indurain years.
They said no one would do that again. And then the very next guy did it.
also, i know its kind of a most popular list, but Mauer has also won 3 consecutive gold gloves
how many does Kendall have on his shelf?
Thought you weren't a Metric Head...phony!
Very good debate strategy, I don’t use advanced stats…oh wait unless the support my argument. Can’t lose strategy, very impressive sir!!! j/k
hahahahaha
i thought dWAR was a 70s rock band with an occasional appearance by Eric Burden, but thats just me
Mauer is a 4.4 dWAR for his career
and nearly 40 WAR overall… yeah, yeah. im trying to learn the metric stuff, i admit it. doesnt mean im accepting it.
i just dont like Kendall. hes a $#@!
We can use examples and counterexamples all day
Evan Longoria immediately signed an extension when he was called up and that looks like on the best contracts in baseball right now. If we want to have any All-Stars on our team with MVP upside during their FA years, we will have to sign our own players to extensions early in their MLB careers.
The good part...
which no one seems to be mentioning…
Cutch being quoted as wanting to be here for his entire career. He could have made no statement at all in that regard, but he chose to indicate his wishes. I view that as a good sign, but I also hope that Pirates management chooses to be fair with Cutch, and not take advantage of his interest/willingness to stay in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future.
Ya
but how much of that is just “interviewee speak”. Ya he could have said nothing, but in this day and age, it’s much more prudent to say the politically correct thing, aka “I wanna be here for my entire career.”
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 2, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
depends on the definition of "fair"
I also hope that Pirates management chooses to be fair with Cutch
As has been said before, if Cutch would like to stay in Pitt for a long time, there’s no way he’s going to get market value (almost certainly). So, it all depends on what he and the FO feels is fair value. It’s a tricky negotiation for both parties. I’d want to have Cutch in Pitt at least through 2017/18. That gives us enough of his peak years, as well as enough time to find a replacement.
What would that be worth? To me, as the FO, I wouldn’t want to go much higher than 6yrs/65-70M (starting 2012) or 7 years/75-80M.
almost every players says "i want to be a ______ for my entire career"
carl crawford said it.
zack greinke said it when he signed his first extension.
everybody says it. it means nothing.
Another important quote from the article
“McCutchen said he and his agent, Steve Hammond, hope to see the contract reflect potential future performance.”
To me that means Cutch won’t be satisfied with the team buying out some FA years as if e will remain 3-4 WAR player. He knows he has MVP upside, and he wants his salaries to reflect that ceiling.
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