In the game recap from Sunday, Escroll mentioned wanted to look at swing percentages, but mentioned that he wouldn't have time. With respect and credit to him for the idea, here is some information about swing percentage for this year.
The idea we are working with is that the Pirates are taking more pitches this year. It sees, via the eye test, that players are getting into deeper counts and taking more pitches. First, let's take a swing percentages of 5 Pirates compared to last year. I selected 5 Pirates who played most games, and who derive most of their value from their bats. Pedro was left out because I feel that his overall struggles this year may skew his numbers and may not be helpful. His numbers will be included with the rest of the team when discussing team numbers later. On to the chart..
|
|
’10 Sping % |
’11 Swing % |
Difference |
|
McCutchen |
67.4 |
66.7 |
-0.7 |
|
Walker |
45.2 |
44.3 |
-0.9 |
|
Tabata |
48.9 |
38.9 |
-10.0 |
|
Doumit |
45.8 |
38.4 |
-7.4 |
|
Jones |
47.8 |
46.3 |
-1.5 |
It appears that, in regards to these five players, that more plate discipline has been encouraged at the ML level. Tabata and Doumit have a giant change, while the other may just be a result of standard fluctuations. So. if swing percentages are dropping for this group, is it an overall hilosophy of being less picky, or has pitch recognition improved. To get a glimpse at this, we looked at O-swing % and Z-Swing %. O-Swing % is the percentage of pitches outside the zone that were offered at, while Z-Swing is a percentage of pitches inside of the zone that were offered at.
|
|
‘10 O-Swing % |
‘11 O-Swing % |
’10 Z-Swing % |
’11 Z-Swing % |
|
McCutchen |
20.0 |
16.1 |
57.4 |
53.7 |
|
Walker |
28.0 |
30.2 |
66.1 |
62.3 |
|
Tabata |
31.9 |
19.3 |
65.9 |
59.2 |
|
Doumit |
32.2 |
25.7 |
63.6 |
54.1 |
|
Jones |
31.1 |
28.6 |
71.0 |
69.6 |
These players appear to be more selective, but they don't look to be discriminating on which pitches not to swing at. I looks like they are just taking more pitches, bot balls and strikes. Walker seems to be an exception, offering at more pitches outside of the zone than last year.
Finally, let's look at the numbers for the team as a whole, compared to last year's numbers. I did not take the time to seperate out the player who are no loner on the team. This table reflects the raw swing %.
|
|
O-Swing % |
Z-Swing % |
Swing % |
|
2010 |
29.5 |
64.1 |
45.6 |
|
2011 |
26.6 |
63.2 |
43.8 |
|
Difference |
-2.9 |
-0.9 |
-1.8 |
So our eyes are telling the truth, the Pirates are taking more pitches this year. Compared to the rest of the ML, the Pirates have the 10th lowest Swing% this year as compared 16th last year.
Whether this is a change in philosophy, random fluctuation or a combination remains to be seen. Another look later in the year should provide us with a better picture.
Again, thanks to escroll for the idea.
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