Should Jeff Karstens Stay In Pirates' Rotation?
Neil Walker picked up five RBIs Friday on the night before his bobblehead night as the Pirates won 10-1. It's far too late to do a real recap (although I did a nuts-and-bolts one here), but I watched the game until the Tigers broke up Jeff Karstens' perfect game in the fifth.
Speaking of which, I wonder if Karstens will get to keep his rotation spot when Ross Ohlendorf gets back. It may be a while before that happens, so this could be an academic exercise, but I'm still interested in it because of how well Karstens has pitched. He still allows a ton of homers, but other than that, he's having a terrific year, with a 3:1 K:BB ratio and a 3.36 xFIP. The Pirates currently have the luxury of not really having anyone in their rotation who obviously deserves to be bumped. The only guy who has really struggled this year has been James McDonald, and he appears to be back on track after a rough April. So is there anyone whose spot Ohlendorf really deserves?
A lot of folks here aren't fans of Karstens, and I'm not either. He's playing at the peak of his abilities now, and he's more likely to slide back into the 4.8-ERA range than to maintain his current pace. He will hopefully be replaced by Brad Lincoln or Rudy Owens at some point this year.
But in the meantime, he's helping the Pirates win, and I don't think Ohlendorf has much more upside for the Pirates than Karstens does. The Pirates control Ohlendorf's rights through 2014, but since he was already arbitration-eligible last offseason and will receive escalating salaries over the next three years, it's unlikely he'll stay with the Bucs that whole time. If he's going to be in the rotation, it should be because of what he can do now. If he isn't the best option now, he should be in the bullpen. Having Ohlendorf in the rotation doesn't bother me, but both he and Karstens are just placeholders until better options arrive. Karstens is pitching well right now, and I don't mind letting him stay on as a starter until he turns back into a pumpkin.
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My personal belief is...
You have to keep Karstens in there. As was stated, a lot of people here aren’t big fans of Karstens, but the guy has earned the spot.
Until Ohlie or someone else show better results, there’s no reason to make the change. I’m a firm believer in “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
by Taz101 on May 21, 2011 6:58 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Ohlendorf
Mentally weak. Not that I’m some mental “Rambo” or anything…. but it seems that he falls apart very easily whenever he hits adversity. I’m not a big fan.
Being confident and mentally tough is different than being able to read Tom Clancy and knowing where to plant crops.
by ATribeCalledGreg on May 21, 2011 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions
calling Ohlendorf mentally weak makes no sense whatsoever... in fact, its rude and mean spirited, and unjustified.
shame, shame
Besides....
….there’s no evidence proving Ohlendorf is mentally weak.
s.zielinski
Weird...
I never heard that about him since he is the smartest Pirate had an internship for like Nasa. Guy is a genius. In his career he is better than Karstens but Karstens deserves it as of now. If Jeff starts struggling replace him with Ross when the time comes problem solved.
by Joey Mooney on May 21, 2011 7:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not completely agreeing with kravy and ATCG, but all you're saying is he's book smart
So what? It speaks nothing of his mental toughness or confidence.
What, you don’t bounce right back after being hit in the face with a line drive?
He may be unlucky, injury prone and not better than fifth starter, but I have to agree with you this is untrue. I can’t ever remember reading that he is in any way a head case.
barry is right, azibuck
ohly took a beaner off his nogin, the reflected ball went all the way into RF!!!!, and he just got right back up… thats toughness, and confidence in one $#@ing play, son.
It could have been whistling past the graveyard, you don't know
It still has absolutely nothing to do with the pitch he’s about to throw. You’re still talking about physical toughness, not mental toughness. And I don’t want to take up this fight. I’m just saying you’re not disproving he’s not mentally tough.
You want us to disprove a negative?
I think i’s up to you to provide evidence that he is “mentally weak”.
Also recovering from getting hit in the face with line drive would take involve some mental toughness, I would expect.
Well then Maholm's an idiot
What’s your problem white angus?
in my opinion
starts aren’t like pitch counts. I say you wait until he can’t keep putting up quality starts before you switch him out. basically, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it
home runs
I mentioned this on a thread the other day, but it’s not just that Karstens still allows a ton of home runs; his HR/FB is considerably up this year, 18.6% compared to a career rate of 10.5%. (Results as starter only aren’t that much different — 21.4% this year compared to a career rate of 11.4%, or something like that.) So there’s some reason to believe that Frank’s performance will stay around his xFIP; his batted-bals-in-play and strand rate might regress, but if fewer balls leave the park on him it’ll make up for it.
(I am a Karstens fan, though, in that I’m irrationally fond of him and even I know it’s irrational.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 21, 2011 7:32 AM EDT reply actions
Leave Jeff Karstens ALONE!!!

Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 21, 2011 8:05 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Charlie
NW bobblehead night is tonight, Saturday, not last night…
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
I always wondered if anyone ever gave Merton Hanks a bobblehead night
by Mr. E on May 21, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec.
Nicely done, sir.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 22, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Let Ohlie show what he can do on a rehab assignment in AAA
If he mows them down as a starter, then maybe you use him and Karstens as co-fifth starters.
Also, I don’t know if we have any double-headers (where has that tradition gone), but let him start one of the games to see how he fares after his AAA rehab assignment.
hm that would be interesting and possibly effective. are you suggesting we rotate them starts or piggy back them allowing them to pitch say 3-4IP? That would probably make Karstens alot better, would also allow Ohlie to throw harder if he only has to go so many innings
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Karstens will likely stay a starter for at least the next month.
Unless he pitches his way out of a spot. Ohlendorf doesn’t appear to be real close to starting a rehab assignment. When that does happen, if the plan is for Ohlie to go back in the rotation, they will likely use most or all of the available rehab time to get him stretched out.
Lincoln is beginning to pitch like he deserves a spot in Pittsburgh. I’m guessing that if he keeps it up for a few more starts, and everyone else stays healthy…that’s the time where the Pirates will start looking for what they want to get in a trade for Maholm. Since I see no way that the Pirates will exercise his option, it’s a fairly sure bet that the Pirates will look to trade him prior to July 31st.
As the weather warms up…so will the hitters. I think we will see at least one…and maybe more…of our pitchers start to see their ERAs rise somewhat.
I think this is about right
Vlad has me sold that picking up Paulie’s option wouldn’t be dumb, I just don’t know that it makes sense to keep him when we’ve got 4 other, cheaper guys pitching well, and 2 guys waiting in the wings. And that’s setting aside Owens & Wilson, let alone Morris and Locke.
The good news is that, the better Maholm pitches, the better his option looks to a trade partner. I wouldn’t trade him just to make room for Lincoln or Karstens (or really Ohlie), but if he can return real talent….
by JRoth95 on May 21, 2011 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No doubt.
If the Pirates turn out to have a surplus of good starting pitchers, then a vet will be gone. In this case, Maholm is the likely one. I don’t think they need to pick up his option to retain him for the future. They would have to renegotiate things, though, which would likely mean giving an extra year. I think they pick up the option only if they find themselves in a bind for next year for some reason.
I don’t think they will trade Maholm and then see if Lincoln or Owens or Wilson can cut it. I think they’ll need to be pretty confident ahead of time before doing that, especially if the Pirates are hovering around the .500 mark in July.
by MarkInDallas on May 21, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Jen Langosch...
tweeting this morning that Ciriaco is on his way to Pittsburgh. Pedro to the DL perhaps??
Yeah, saw that -
hope not.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 21, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Dunlap agrees with Langosch..
colin_dunlap
Have been told Pedro Ciriaco is expected to join #pirates tonight. This can’t be good for another Pedro.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 21, 2011 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Usually, the simplest explanation is correct…which means Alvarez to the DL. The only other possibility that makes sense is a trade that hasn’t been announced yet, because I don’t see anyone getting released or waived.
Another transaction by the front office I don't know about immediately???
SALE THE SECRECY!
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Ahh, Scumbag Smizik.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
by ryebr3ad on May 21, 2011 12:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Would it be rude to note that
is almost exactly what people (pretty sure Vlad, but he wasn’t alone) said about his performance as a starter last season? And he’s been almost a run better on xFIP over a not-tiny sample this year.
I’m not arguing that he’s going to get better, nor that some regression isn’t likely. But maybe it’s time to accept that we’ve been seriously underestimating the guy, and stop basing our projections on incorrect estimates of the guy’s abilities. If I’d said, back when he was signed for $1.1M, that he’d pitch 50 innings as a SP with an xFIP below 3.7, I’d have been hooted off BD. But here he is, doing it.
Shame we didn’t do a community projection for him. It would be the funniest thread all season.
by JRoth95 on May 21, 2011 10:19 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
“…we’ve been seriously underestimating the guy …”
For the record, not me. I like him, always have.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 21, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Good on ya. Me too.
But then I’ve always had a fondness for the you-know-who cough Josh Fogg cough types. I know Morton is the guy with the huge upside, so when he shows significant progress everyone starts assuming it’s real. But when Karstens shows improvement it’s, “Well, he’ll be regressing soon enough.” If our coaching staff can bring out the best in Morton, why can’t it bring out the best in Karstens, even if his best almost certainly will never quite match up to Morton’s? If we can never pay for a true No. 1 staff-ace starter, and developing one is a long shot, couldn’t you put yourself in a pretty good position to contend if your rotation had, say, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4 stuff? It’s much cheaper and far easier to try to bring up the bottom and improve by five wins than to try to find/pay an ace to do the same thing.
"if your rotation had, say, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4 stuff"
That sounds like the 71 and 79 staffs, at least in broad strokes (I don’t want to debate the relative rotation value of Luke Walker or Jim Bibby). Of course, those teams had hitting and power that was, ahem, somewhat superior to the current edition.
I never tire of this meme
You couldn’t be righter.
I think Karstens will regress, but maybe he just won’t. Heck, some are still expecting Walker to regress, and he has in fact improved, which isn’t actually that surprising.
by Adam Reynolds on May 21, 2011 10:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Karstens = Josh Fogg 2.0
Loved Fogg, love Karstens. Keep him in ’ere
Why wait til Karstens turn back into a pumpkin though?
let him leave on a good note and bring up Lincoln and if he falters then just throw Karstens back in. But if Lincoln does good, your bullpen gets that much better. Karstens isnt more than a spot starter but hes very valuable out of the pen giving you 2-3 innings a clip.
Why wait til Karstens turn back into a pumpkin though?
because there is a good chance he never will
by BurgherKing on May 21, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
good is probably overstating things
but there is a chance
by BurgherKing on May 21, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
My friend and I have a weird fascination with Karstens
Guy’s got stones straight up. Not the biggest guy, doesn’t have the best stuff, but he’s like F this I’m gonna win tonight. Started following him on Twitter and the guy’s got a ton of confidence even if he isn’t Steven Strasburg (as evidenced by the way he stepped up and pitched really well in Strasburg’s debut). Though he refuses to acknowledge and contribute to my Electrikarsens meme
One thing
The Nady trade is the trade that just keeps on giving.
+1
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 21, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I bet the Yankees wouldnt mind having him right now...or Ollie.
OR the millions they gave Marte to pitch 15 innings in 3 years
Probably not.
Marte pitched some scoreless frames in the World Series for them.
by Adam Reynolds on May 21, 2011 1:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So if we use Smizik logic here.....
Yankees still win that trade since the Yankees won the World Series with Marte and the Pirates haven’t won it without him.
There is no love in the World. There's only pain.
by IAPiratesFan on May 21, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't really have anything against Jeff
But he’s a 5 inning guy. This works if the other four guys are going deeper into games — generally have been so far — but becomes a big issue once a couple guys falter. So I really think his place in the rotation depends on the other starters.
Jeff Karstens: AAA Talent, MLB Guts

The man has average stuff at best but just goes up there and pitches off of guts and testicular fortiude. Some how it ends up working out for him.
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." Wes Westrum
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on May 21, 2011 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You can never have enough pitching
So it’s a good problem to have, what to do with Karstens when RO comes back. I’d agree with a poster above in giving him two AAA rehab stints and move one of them into long or middle relief. RO seems to have a heavy pitch (forget if it’s a sinker or what), but could be well utilized in the pen.
Also, we’re discussing this all after Karsten’s best start of the season – that’s a start that included the typical 6th inning HR and many, many hard hit balls that aren’t always going to be hit directly to the infielders or hang up long enough for Cutch to make a sliding grab. While Jeff K is sure ugly, you gotta love his effort and 5+ solid innings he’s regularly putting up.
I've especially liked Karstens since that game he pitched
last year after we got out scored 36-2 or something like that in the series against the Brewers. I saw that Karstens was pitching the next game and I thought “Oh no, how bad can this get? After that pounding they are going to go with a guy who wasn’t good enough to make the team out of spring training.”
But he pitched well and we got a win. I don’t know if he will regress or not but I would love to see him do well.
This
I don’t know if he will regress or not but I would love to see him do well.
Is what I think about every Pirate pitcher. (and how the hell do you finish a block quote?)
like this
type or copy and paste you quote then hit the block quote button, thats how I do it
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." Wes Westrum
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on May 21, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at that game.
Karstens didn’t get the win, as he was taken out long before the Pirates scored enough runs to win. They were down 3-2 going in to the top of the 9th. Ronny Cedeno hit a home run off Trevor Hoffman. Then the Pirates loaded the bases and Ryan Doumit hit a grand slam off Hoffman. It was pretty cool. The place emptied out fast as Doumit was rounding the bases. I enjoyed it.
There is no love in the World. There's only pain.
by IAPiratesFan on May 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Karstens has shown he should be given the chance to remain in the rotation.
I like the option of starting Karstens and trying Ohlie in the bullpen until we see that Ohlie is back and effective. If he is, maybe piggy back Karstens/Ohlendorf since Karstens hits a wall after 70 pitches. He has been really good up to 70 pitches.
as much as
He’s been a good starter I think he should go back to muddle relief. If he does well, there’s a chance he and maholm will both get traded.
Karstens is probably a good relief pitcher for teams in the hunt later on in the season.
And being able to start or relieve is an attractive quality for a RP. But don’t give him away.
Karstens our best SP. No Relation our best RP. Cedeno our best regular.
I don’t see anything unusual about this.

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