Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects: May 2011 Edition
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 4:00 PM EDT
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PrintUnlike the 2010 season, in which its players suffered one injury after another, the 2011 season has been kind to the Pirates' minor leaguers. There have been few major injuries, and I think that, generally, Pirates prospects have played well, with most of them maintaining their status. The problem is that, with the very notable exception of Kyle McPherson, no one is in the midst of a breakout year. So there was a ton of competition for spots in the 11-25 range, but not nearly as much for the first 10 spots. Having the top pick in the 2011 draft should help that (as much as the lack of certainty at the top of the draft is causing us all to gnash our teeth right now), and some good performances by short-season guys (like Luis Heredia, Stetson Allie, Nick Kingham, Exicardo Cayonez, and so on) would help, too.
The grades go from A to C, where A means the guy will very probably be a superstar and C could mean anything from a guy in the high minors who's likely to become a role player, to a guy in Class A who's interesting but doesn't have much of a performance record.
As always, guys like Brad Lincoln who have significant big-league experience aren't eligible.
Here's the previous list. I'll probably do the next list after the draft signing deadline passes.
1. Jameson Taillon, SP, West Virginia. Grade: A-. Previous ranking: 1. Taillon now has 20 strikeouts and four walks in 24 innings pitched to go with a 3.38 ERA. That's not dominating, but it's still excellent for a 19-year-old making his first few professional starts in a full-season league. Nothing about his performance so far has changed his status as the Pirates' best prospect.
2. Tony Sanchez, C, Altoona. Previous ranking: 2. Grade: B. Forget about the Twitter controversy - Sanchez is a good kid. He has shown good control of the strike zone so far for Altoona, but little power. With his defense, he'll still probably be a major-league starter even if the power doesn't develop. Still, Sanchez doesn't look like a star at this point, which raises questions about the Pirates' strategy in the 2009 draft. They passed on higher-upside talents in order to take Sanchez, then spent the savings on later-round bonus babies like Zack Von Rosenberg, Colton Cain, Trent Stevenson and Jeff Inman. Several of those pitchers now look they have significant obstacles to clear to get back on the path toward becoming solid major leaguers. Will the Pirates' strategy pay off? We'll see. I had a really hard time deciding who to put at No. 2 - there are a lot of Pirates prospects who have performed well this season, but other than Taillon, none of them look like future stars.
3. Luis Heredia, SP. Previous ranking: 6. Grade: B. He's extremely young and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch in the states, but his stuff is filthy and his makeup and polish are excellent. All of Pirate City was abuzz about him in Spring Training. There's nothing to dislike about him; we'll just have to wait and see.
4. Stetson Allie, SP. Previous ranking: 4. Grade: B. Still hasn't pitched yet. Talk out of minor league camp suggests he has had trouble with his control, but that isn't a huge problem in itself at this stage - Allie is a project, and he has a lot of time to become what he's going to be.
5. Starling Marte, OF. Previous ranking: 5. Grade: B. Another year, another ridiculous batting average, but it's still hard to know what to make of Marte. As with Jarek Cunningham below, the lack of strike zone judgment is becoming a serious concern. Also like Cunningham, it's hard to know what to think of it until he gets to a level where his other skills don't make that irrelevant. It will be extremely hard for Marte to sustain a .300 batting average in the majors if he strikes out five times as often as he walks. But Marte might just be toolsy enough to make adjustments when he needs to.
6. Rudy Owens, SP, Indianapolis. Previous ranking: 7. Grade: B. Owens has had three strikeouts or fewer in his last five starts. I expected he would lose some strikeouts as he moved up the chain, but this is too many - he now has only 25 in 45 innings. That might improve as the season goes on, and I'm not overly worried, but in light of his recent performances, it might be wise for the Pirates to keep him in the minors a while longer.
7. Bryan Morris, SP, Altoona. Previous ranking: 3. Grade: B-. The last hope from the Jason Bay trade omewhat surprisingly opened the season at Altoona rather than Indianapolis. He pitched badly for three starts, missed a month with a strained oblique, then returned. He has pitched well in his two most recent starts, so hopefully he can get back on track now.
8. Colton Cain, SP, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 12. Grade: C+. Cain has been perhaps the best-performing member of the 2009 draft class so far. He has good velocity for a lefty, and his strong strikeout rate while pitching in a full-season league at age 20 bodes well for him.
9. Kyle McPherson, SP, Bradenton. Previous ranking: N/A. Grade: C+. This is a huge leap for McPherson, but he's been the one real breakout performer in the system so far, posting video-game numbers, with 45 strikeouts and three walks. He also appears to be allowing fewer fly balls than he used to, which will help him going forward. Pitchers who have excellent changeups sometimes dominate the low minors and then hit a wall later, but the fact that McPherson has been so outstanding in his first extended stint at Class A+ probably eases that worry somewhat.
10. Justin Wilson, SP, Indianapolis. Previous ranking: 11. Grade: C+. Wilson has a 2.67 ERA so far this year, but his peripherals have been much worse, with less than a 2:1 K:BB ratio. He also has a bunch of unearned runs, and he has allowed a lot more fly balls than he used to. A larger sample size might fix that to a degree, but take a look at the video of Wilson that Mark posted last week. He simply doesn't throw a lot of strikes, and his command really isn't there yet. He tries to pitch down in the zone, but when he misses, it's often up. I don't think he's ready for the majors yet - I think he would allow way too many walks against a more patient bunch of hitters, and also a fair number of homers. I do think his stuff could eventually make him a good starter, however.
11. Jarek Cunningham, 2B, Bradenton. Previous ranking: 17. Grade: C+. There's no getting around the fact that Cunningham has had a great season, with spectacular power for a 21-year-old. But his ratio of 47 strikeouts to seven walks is very, very scary, and could lead to serious problems at the upper levels. There's a good thread on OnlyBucs now comparing him to Chad Hermansen. Someone also noted recently that Cunningham is doing most of his damage with runners on base, hitting .256/.264/.511 with the bases empty. That might not mean anything, but Cunningham is mostly hitting second in the Marauders order, behind Robbie Grossman, who's a pretty good basestealer. It could be that Cunningham is seeing more fastballs with Grossman on. The knock against Cunningham is that he can't hit breaking pitches.
12. Jeff Locke, SP, Altoona. Previous ranking: 10. Grade: C+. It looked like Locke was headed to Indianapolis after pitching brilliantly down the stretch at Altoona last year, but the Pirates sent him back to the Curve. He began the season with three very good starts in a row, but he's gone downhill from there and has walked nine batters in his last two starts.
13. Alex Presley, OF, Indianapolis. Previous ranking: 13. Grade: C+. After hitting .320 in the minors last year, Presley is hitting .326 this year. He's almost 26, so where you place him on this list really depends on how you weight potential versus certainty. Presley could probably be a good major-league bench player right now, but he's in the awkward position of being interesting enough that the Pirates probably don't want to use him that way, but not quite interesting enough to clear space for. He's also a lefty, which doesn't fit well on the current Pirates roster. If the Bucs trade Garrett Jones or cut Lyle Overbay, that could clear space for Presley.
14. Zack Von Rosenberg, SP, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 8. Grade: C+. Von Rosenberg has been hit hard all year, and it looks like he'll be more of a project than we initially anticipated when he was drafted out of high school two years ago. The Pirates are working on his delivery, in part so that he doesn't leave so many fat pitches up in the zone, but it will probably be a bumpy ride for a while.
15. Andrew Lambo, OF, Indianapolis. Previous ranking: 9. Grade: C+. He's having a terrible season at Class AAA and never really mastered Class AA. But he's only 22! Hopefully this won't be a Gorkys Hernandez situation, where the guy fails forever but gets a pass because he's so young. In the meantime, though, he would still be a prospect in a year even if he doesn't improve at all before that.
16. Robbie Grossman, OF, Bradenton. Previous ranking: 15. Grade: C+. Grossman has cooled off in May after a terrific April, but I still think a good argument can be made that he's progressing. The key is in the K:BB ratio, which has improved from over two to just above one in two years despite his moving up a level. He has a .378 OBP right now, which is terrific for a 21-year-old in the Florida State League. Now the key will be to get better at actually, you know, hitting.
17. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Indianapolis. Previous ranking: 19. Grade: C. I was concerned about D'Arnaud last year, when he batted .247 at Altoona, but his struggles with batting average there were fluky to some degree, and now he's hitting .272 a level higher. His power is modest, and his K:BB ratios have gotten worse as he's ascended to levels where pitchers can consistently throw strikes, but with major-league shortstops being as bad as they are, he has a future.
18. Matt Curry, 1B, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 30. Grade: C. It's almost impossible to know what to think of a 22-year-old drafted as a college senior from a big school who's destroying the South Atlantic League. At the same time, Curry's numbers are so ridiculous they can't be ignored. He's hitting .367/.477/.669; he's too good for this level, and I look forward to seeing what he can do once he moves up.
19. Zack Dodson, SP, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 24. Grade: C. It's only seven starts, so it might not mean much, but 2009 fourth-rounder Dodson appears to have taken a nice step forward with his control this season, walking only 10 batters in his first 34.2 innings. He has also generated more grounders than he did last year. He improved throughout the 2010 season, so it wouldn't be surprising if the bump in his 2011 performance is for real.
20. Nick Kingham, SP. Previous ranking: 18. Grade: C. Kingham hasn't pitched yet and will probably start the season at State College. The 2010 fourth-rounder was well-regarded coming out of the draft, but we probably won't know much more than that for another month or so. I haven't seen him yet, but he apparently throws 90-92 MPH, with the potential to one day throw harder, and he has a changeup he likes. Here's an interview.
21. Mel Rojas, OF, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 16. Grade: C. The 2010 third-rounder is toolsy and fast, and a lot of people who have watched him a lot more than I have start to fall in love with him, but obviously, he hasn't hit yet at all.
22. Brooks Pounders, P, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 28. Grade: C. Pounders has pitched mostly in two- and three-inning stints this year, and he's been toxic, striking out 26 batters and walking three in his first 22.1 innings. He still allows way too many fly balls, which will translate to a ton of homers at the higher levels unless he learns to keep the ball down, or strike out more batters, or something.
23. Diego Moreno, RP, Altoona. Previous ranking: 20. Grade: C. Epoc saw Moreno in Bradenton recently and reported that his stuff was still as good as what it was last year. So like Epoc, I'm not really sure what Moreno was doing down there. He's back at Altoona now, and hopefully we'll start to learn more about whether he'll be able to help out in the majors.
24. Zachary Fuesser, P, West Virginia. Previous ranking: 25. Grade: C. Quietly continues to post excellent stats, this time as part of West Virginia's piggybacking system. Like Dodson, he has dramatically improved his walk rate so far this year.
25. Brandon Cumpton, SP, West Virginia. Previous ranking: N/A. Grade: C. This one is pretty speculative on my part, but the Pirates paid $124,000 to sign him last year, they're giving him turns in a West Virginia rotation in which starts aren't easy to come by, and two highly-ranked Pirates employees mentioned Cumpton to me without prompting while I was at Pirate City a couple months ago. One of those was Kyle Stark, who suggested Cumpton could start the season at Bradenton. That didn't happen, but Cumpton's performance at West Virginia so far has been really interesting - after three straight starts in which he allowed seven runs apiece, he's been just about unhittable, with 29 strikeouts, five walks and five runs allowed in his last 34 innings. His pitching coach has said that Cumpton's rough stretch was due to a lack of aggressiveness, so it doesn't sound like there was any physical problem.
26. Elevys Gonzalez, 3B, Bradenton. Previous ranking: N/A. Grade: C. Gonzalez isn't particularly toolsy, but he's done enough both last season at West Virginia and this year at Bradenton to deserve a spot here. He played a bit of shortstop last year; if he can fake his way around that position at the major-league level, he could have a good career as a bench player, but he's also young enough that he might turn out to be better than that.
27. Exicardo Cayonez, OF. Previous ranking: 26. Grade: C. Cayonez will probably start the year at State College. It was too bad the Pirates didn't feel they could send him to a full-season league, but he's only 19.
28. Willy Garcia, OF. Previous ranking: N/A. Grade: C. I thought about putting a lower-upside guy like Danny Moskos, Nathan Baker, Mike Crotta, Aaron Thompson Brock Holt, Josh Harrison, Jeremy Farrell or Tony Watson here, but then I thought, "What if the Pirates traded someone like Garcia for someone like Moskos?" Garcia stands in for a bunch of big-bonus players we don't really know much about yet, like Cesar Lopez, Jhonathan Barrios, Ryan Hafner and Jared Lakind. They should all be in short-season leagues this year.
29. Tim Alderson, RP, Altoona. Previous ranking: 29. Grade: C. Alderson seems to be reborn as a reliever, striking out 23 batters in his first 27 innings this year. He's still only 22, amazingly.
30. Brett Lorin, SP, Bradenton. Previous ranking: N/A. Grade: C. It's hard to know what to make of Lorin - he's already 24, but he has precious little pro experience, as he was already 21 when drafted and has missed a bunch of time due to injuries. He's now striking out a batter an inning while keeping the ball on the ground. It would be nice to see him get to Altoona by the end of the season.
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The top 30 looks better every time I see it
Add in the 1 and 2 picks from this year and it will be even better.
Sanchez at #2 speaks volume
about how fans overrate the farm club.
There was alot of bitching about having the 19th rating but truth be told, ZVR being anywhere near the 5 and a Sanchez at #2 is pretty rotten overall.
I know the farm club is better than it was but it’s got a long ways to go.
It’s be nice if they played Curry at an appropriate level so that they might even be able to judge how good the kid is.
We should have our tow 3 all be in BA's top 10
NH is a failure!!
by Wizard of Woz on May 26, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 50 prospects who are catchers, their level, and their stats:
3. Jesus Montero – AAA – .772
10. Wil Myers – AA – .749
30. Gary Sanchez – A – .713
36. Travis D’arnaud – AA – .952
46. Tony Sanchez – AA – .732
D’Arnaud is killing, but outside of the him the top fifty catchers are all OPSing around the same. Also, Sanchez’s OPS is very OBP driven, due to his rather low ISO compared to his career. If he goes a week and hits four doubles, voila.
Thank god we’ve advanced above average.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
Wil Myers is no longer a catcher
I am not sure how much longer Jesus Montero will be a catcher, but I don’t expect him to be catching 5 years from now.
Well
yes on one hand.
On the other hand, Montero is almost guaranteed to be a much, much better hitter than Tony. Tony will get some of that value back on defense, but not all of it in my opinion.
Still your point is a good one, Tony Sanchez is a damn good prospect and its not shame for him to be the 2nd best prospect in our system.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
We probably could...
…get Montero for Hanrahan. I wonder if Montero can play right field?
s.zielinski
I would wet myself if that happened. And the Yinzers would wet themselves because ‘dey traded dat closer for more prospeks!’
Thank you Ned Colletti.
No, you see, I’ve reserved the right to wet myself if one of two things happen
1. Trade a reliever for a top 10 prospect
2. The Pirates make the playoffs.
1 could very well lead to 2.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
1 could very well lead to 2
especially if his name is Jesus Montero straddling the old 1B bag at PNC Park
Too bad NY isn’t that stupid. Oh well. Colletti, you and Cashman can trade jobs.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
The Yankees make trades like this because they can
The Yankees brass soured on Tabata. He became a Pirate. The Yankees need a setup man. Trade a hitter without a position to the Pirates because Prince Fielder will DH for the Yankees in 2012.
The Yankees don’t rebuild; they reload. Prospects are mostly to be used as trade chips, especially a flawed prospect who will underperform the player the Yankees will likely sign to play his position.
Montero is definitely doable, which is not to say that Huntington and Cashman will make this trade. It only means it sits within the realm of the feasible.
s.zielinski
Here's the real issue with Montero in NY
Where the hell does he play? I don’t see him as a RF, so that leaves C and 1B. Except for the fact that he looks about as useful as Jorge Posada behind the plate, and some guy just signed a long term contract to play 1B. I suppose you could have him as a DH, but I feel like having a top prospect DH when you have needs at other positions is really inefficient.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
to add to what steve said
Cashman also sometimes gets overruled by his bosses… so really, anything can happen.
Nice Job....
Charlie. Great stuff as always.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Huh?
Wilson gets the nod over Cain and McPherson due to his proximity to the majors.
Slightly confused.
Other than that great piece. It’s really cool to think about all the interesting guys who didn’t make your top 30, like Cesar Lopez, Ryan Hafner, Jared Lakind (who you mentioned) and Drew Maggi, Dan Grovatt, Wesley Freeman, and Walker Gourley (those last two still intrigue me).
Another guy I’d like to touch on is Davydad Neverauskas. Not sure if he just slipped your mind, but a guy who held his own stateside last year at age 16 who’s reportedly throwing his fastball in the mid 90’s this year (per a WTM fanshot mentioned in this fanshot) would warrant at least some consideration in my top 30. Your thoughts?
Again, great piece as always.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 4:26 PM EDT reply actions
I changed the order after I wrote that. My power is out right now but I will fix when it comes back on. As for neverauskas, I thought about him, but it still seems like such a longshot for him to reach the majors. I might reconsider after he pitches a bit more.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 4:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Longshot to reach the majors
I don’t necessarily disagree, but what makes you think that?
I mean I honestly think this may be a case of a really talented guy who’s overlooked since hes from Lithuania. Now that does hurt him in a sense (less experience, much worse competition faced so far, and since I’ve never read anything at all about secondary offerings it may be a fair assumption that he has none – possibly due to his baseball background), but I still see a 17 year old who held his own stateside last year at the youngest possible age and is now throwing in the mid 90’s with a projectable frame and room/years to grow. I mean, from the way I see it, if he was a 6’3 junior in high school with a mid 90’s fastball and very crude secondary offerings, that guys gonna warrant some attention.
Not trying to quibble, but just present my side of the argument I guess. I just don’t see him as that much more of a longshot that say Dodson.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
18 year olds are longshots to make the majors by definition
Unless your name is Bryce Harper or something…
I think you make a good argument
One thing to bear in mind is my old hobbyhorse that guys who start late (whether due to growing up in a non-baseball country or for some reason playing hockey as youths) have a little more room to develop, age-wise. Obviously, their bodies still start to fail at 29-31 like anyone else, but my point is that they should be a year or two behind their peers, and that’s really not a problem. The physical maturity difference between a 20-y.o. and a 19-y.o. is swamped by the baseball skills/knowledge/intuition that would come from an extra 3-6 years of youth baseball (to say nothing of better HS competition).
All of which is to say that the guy has like 5 years to show that he can dominate A+, and he’s already at State College. We need to see development in that timeframe, but we don’t need to see anything like the standard level-per-year that you like out of serious prospects.
Your parenthetical in the second paragraph would be the beginning of my answer to the first question. He’s obviously about five years from the majors in the best of circumstances, and there’s really no telling how hard he’ll be throwing then, so without something else to round him out (like secondary pitches, etc.), I don’t know if I can put him in the top 30 yet. If he’s amazing at State College, or good at West Virginia, then I’d consider it.
He did pop into my head, though. The thing that was different about this list as opposed to some others I’ve written is that you could easily go 50 deep without feeling like you were wasting time. There’s a ton of depth at the lower levels. I’m not yet seeing a lot of breakouts, which I’m guessing is partly a function of most of their big-bonus draftees being only 19-20, but I would still like to see more.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Ya
that’s certainly reasonable. I’m probably a bit too excited about him, but I can’t help become enamored with 90’s heat along with (and the real kicker) the excellent ARL – something that rarely happens with Pirates prospects it seems.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Good stuff Charlie
My only quibble is ranking Allie at #4. I know that guys who throw 100 mph don’t grow on trees, but that ranking is more speculative than any other you make.
It seems that professional scouts in every sport are enamored with these type of “physical specimen” guys, saying that you can teach a player how to pitch (or throw TDs or read defenses or shoot 3s or whatever) but you can’t teach them to throw 100 (or be 7 ft tall or run a 4.25 or whatever).
The scouting reports on Taillon and Heredia seem to back up your rankings, esp. since they supposedly possess quality makeup to go along with talent; but when I look at Allie, I just see a kid who is good at throwing a baseball really hard but little else.
I’ve never seen any of these guys pitch, but I’m about as far from a scout as you can get. I trust what you and others have written about this stuff. Everything I’ve read so far tells me that Allie < Taillon or Heredia.
It's a good day to be a Pirate
Yeah, Recent scouting reports and makeup were my main reasons for putting heredia ahead of Allie this time. But I think it’s a mistake to think of Allie as merely a physical specimen type. He got a huge bonus and was widely regarded as a first round pick last year. Also, he has a good slider to go with that fastball, so he’s not just a thrower.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 4:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm sorry
because he has a slider…he’s not just a thrower? I don’t follow that logic.
The guy has lived on his “stuff” — a good slider and a 100mph fastball. That is exactly what “throwers” do, as their “stuff” is good enough to make up for mistakes (esp. at the HS level).
I have also heard what you have – bad command thus far (read as can’t throw strikes).
Unless he has developed some sort of Ankiel-like mental block, I don’t see how we can remove the “thrower” label from everything I’ve heard of Allie.
by insane_sanity on May 27, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
“Not just a thrower” was probably poor wording on my part. I just meant that he wasn’t depending purely on fastball velocity.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 27, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel like Ramon Cabrera belongs on this list
Maybe towards the bottom – I know he’s tiny – but still, a 21 year old catcher that can make contact like he does seems noteworthy.
One thing I’ve learned from watching a fair number of class a games in the past year is that the low minors are filled with really small guys like that who often perform quite well, but few players that small actually stick in the majors. I’m keeping an eye on him, though.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 4:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would still consider Lincoln a prospect
I don’t believe 52.2 innings of ML time to be significant. Also, have to consider how/if Kerrigan had any negative influence on his performance. Plus, he did lose a year with TJ surgery. Lastly, he has pitched very well this month and seems to be the leading candidate to be recalled.
Owens, I believe you are right that he needs a full season in AAA. The Few snipplets I saw of him, I honestly was disappointed. Hitters get to many good swings off him. His secondary pitches are “ordinary” at best. I’m no scout but he needs to work on getting an out pitch…. IMO, Owens stock dropped and the only thing that preventing him from dropping him out of the top ten is that no other prospects have set the world on fire. I’m hoping by Sept he proves me wrong!
by Krid on May 26, 2011 4:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
(My general guideline when doing these things is to exclude players who don’t meet MLB’s definition of a rookie, which is 50 innings or fewer, 45 days of service or fewer before Sept. 1. I wasn’t incredibly rigorous about it this time, but I think I got it right anyway.)
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Curious what people think of the cumpton video.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 4:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I thought that I really wanted another angle
It’s funny you asked, because that’s the only one I watched. I really liked something about how the ball got to the plate, but without any way to see the vertical movement, I couldn’t tell what I was really seeing.
On the whole, I like what I’m seeing there. Ball’s got some snap out of his hand and some movement. No obvious mechanical flaws, maybe a tiny bit too quick slowing down his arm on the follow-through. Needs to work on fastball command, obviously, but that can be taught.
(Caution: Not a scout. Caveat emptor.)
It looked to me like a ton of movement, which is why I asked, but I thought that might have been just the angle.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, looked like real pop of the fastball
Might have just been the clip, but it seemed like an awfully high percentage of offspeed stuff.
No, there’s some definite movement there.
I might’ve been more likely to say “ton of movement” if I hadn’t been watching Peter Tago clips yesterday. (Example.)
Good lord, can that kid ever run his fastball. How he lasted all the way to pick 47 is beyond me…
Check yr text, plz.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 26, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
cool. thx.
keep it simple.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 26, 2011 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
IMO,
It looks like he doesn’t open up his front shoulder as much as he could. This could be because he’s trying to hide the ball, but I don’t see a nice ""tucked wing" with his glove hand.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 26, 2011 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean
compare Cumpton’s delivery to, say, Cain’s.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 27, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree 100% on the follow-through — if you watch it, he only does it on his curveball. On his fastball, he has no slowdown.
His motion is pretty smooth, but he 1.) seems to close his front shoulder a little too much for my liking, which leads to 2.) him not really curling his glove arm and ripping it through to provide some drive for his upper body to come through.
by insane_sanity on May 27, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
i would probably start to bump Alderson back up the list a tad
i think he gets more opportunities to pitch consecutive innings as the season goes on.
right now, no
i see him more long relief than anything, kinda like the piggyback style you see in State College.
if he continues to get the outs, then maybe he gets a spot start or two midseason, especially if theres an injury or a callup/demotion
he did have a 5 1/3 inning relief appearance recently (though did so with 0 K’s).
Hell, his ERA is now sub-1 — and as Charlie did well to point out….he’s only 22.
by insane_sanity on May 27, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
First of all
I’d like to see Bundy and Profar added to this list by August.
Second of all, if you were assured that every guy would reach his ceiling, what would be your top ten prospects for the Pirates this year?
I must agree
with someone upthread that this list kind of confirms that that #19 ranking was, if not accurate, at least in the ballpark. I like the talent – and I love the depth of it – but I see an awful lot of guys who are going to end up being like the players we had coming through in the Bonifay/early DL years – sparks of promise, but not quite fulfilling it. Or else reaching their ceilings, but they’re low ceilings.
Maybe I’m just in a pessimistic mood, but I don’t see much in this list to get me excited. What if, aside from Taillon and Heredia, the best 4 guys in our system are already here, burning their years of control, and we’re not especially close to augmenting them with impact talent? We could end up limping along at 75-85 wins per year, getting mid-level draft picks that don’t help much, and just treading water indefinitely.
Gah. I think I need to go find a cute puppy video or something.
Glad I’m not the only one having that type of day….
Wonder how patient the Bucs will be with Allie? Would like to see him DH some — just in case…
Damn, I need a hug… Or laid! Ok, I realize with this face of mine a hug is pushing it…
by Krid on May 26, 2011 7:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree but..
If the core 4 pan out like we hope, and you have sanchez on the way, thats five positions taken by hopefully real good major leaguers. My hope is we can get some average major leaguers to pan out at the other 3.
Also the top pick this year to add ( maybe rendon, and then alvarez to 1st) or
1st base Maybe hague?
RF maybe LAMBO?
SS. Maybe D’ arnaud
Pitching we seem to be ok, A decent group in AAA and AA and then the next wave lower after that.
Not saying we are In really great position but i am pretty happy with whats going on.
age of last winning season: 5
remember that the pirates are going to have to make some big changes by the beginning of 2012
the roster is going to look completely different. some of those names will be elsewhere.
Right
I’m apparently in a better mood today, and my optimistic-but-not-blindly-so take is:
The Core Four all continue to be above-average MLBers, with all capable of All-Star caliber seasons.
Sanchez and D’Arnaud and Lambo/Presley/Marte come up within the next 300 games and give us league average or better performance out of 7 positions; 1B (or 2B is they move Pedro) is handled through FA or a trade. Call that 4 guys averaging 3.5 WAR apiece and 4 guys averaging 2.5 WAR apiece, giving us 32 WAR from our everyday players.
One of Morton and McDonald blossoms into an above-average #2 SP, good for a touch under 4 wins. The other is an above-average #3, good for 2.5 wins. Among our other in-house options, we get a couple more #3-types, and someone else serviceable. All that adds up to 13 more WAR.
Our bullpen looks to be a strength for the next few years at least; that’s worth a total of 6 WAR (a couple guys around 2 apiece, then 5 guys compiling 2-3 more). I think we have enough marginal prospects that our bench should be a strength, but I’ll reserve some pessimism here and call it a wash.
That all adds up to 51 WAR for the team in 2013. Baseline wins varies year to year, but I’m pretty sure it’s always above 40. Which means that I could see us being a 90+ win team without anyone turning into a monster, and without Taillon or Heredia (or Rendon). A pessimist will note that a few busts and/or injuries would take that tally down; an optimist would note that all 4 core guys are capable of 5 WAR seasons, and 7 WAR for Cutch (who’s on pace for 6.3 this year, btw) or Pedro isn’t out of the question. I wouldn’t bet on 90+ wins in 2013, but if you gave me an over/under of 85 wins, I’d take the over.
Last I saw
The baseline was actually right around 45 wins.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
That's what I had in mind
But that seemed implausible on top of a suggestion of 51 WAR. Can you imagine 96 wins in 2013, and without everybody maxing out?
It does rely on D’Arnaud and First Baseman X performing adequately, which is far from assured. But still.
Just went to west Virginia. That came ou on twitter right after I published this.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 7:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
he pitched a scoreless inning last night
good to see him back
Jarek Cunningham could power PNC on wind energy.
They should seriously make him take the first 2 pitches of every AB for a week and see if that clicks with him.
Jeff Locke looks like Nuke Laloosh.
We really need a high ceiling guy in Indy or Altoona to bust out in the next 3 months.
We
have a high ceiling guy in Indy or Altoona?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Theoretically
Morris and Locke both have a high ceiling. I don’t think anyone really expects them to reach it at this point, but I think both were once projected as potential solid #2s.
If by “high ceiling” you mean perennial All-Star, then no.
Going just on ceiling
Lambo, Hernandez, Sanchez, Marte, Morris, and maybe Chase D’arnaud would be up there for me. Chase only makes it because his ceiling is maybe an average MLB shortstop, and those are like gold.
Obviously many of these guys (all?) will fail to reach their ceilings.
well, they expect him to hit for power
most of his doubles have been because of his speed, which is not a bad thing IMO.
Call Me crazy
Not saying he is a top prospect,
I really like matt hague. Batting .290 with 3 hrs, and 27 rbis so far this year.Also from what i have seen watching him (granted onlyt 2 or 3 times) He has looked really solid defensively.
although he lacks serious power, if he can come up and hit .280 with 15 hrs 85rbi and play solid defense i would take it. compared with what we have had to deal with the past 5 years, (laroche, clement, overbay, and jones defensivly) i would take a solid defender who hits for average at 1st base.
age of last winning season: 5
85rbi
That would depend almost entirely on the other players in the lineup, and wouldn’t indicate much (if anything) about Hague’s skill as a hitter.
Just throwing out a stat line
Not really usuing RBIs as a huge indicator just throwing out a stat line.
But i would actually like to know your opinon, as well as any1 elses of Matt Hague. I for some reason like him.
age of last winning season: 5
He’s a try-hard guy, and seems like a good kid, but I just don’t think the bat’s there for him to make it at 1B, with as little power as he has. He’s stuck in kind of the same spot that Jordan Brown was in Cleveland a couple years back.
I’ll be the first one to stand up and clap for him if he’s able to make a go of it, though.
agreed
Hague has produced at every level.
Here’s to hoping he learns to eat his spinach and develop some power!
by insane_sanity on May 27, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
great list, Charlie
I like the list. Except for a few guys, I’d have pretty much everyone in the same general area. Nice writeups, too.
Thanks. Your approval, as someone who’s seen some of these guys a lot more than I have, means a lot.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
aw, shucks
For the record, you and I differ by more than five spots on only four players: Locke and d’Arnaud (who I have higher) and Grossman and Lambo (who I have lower).
Yeah, I thought you might say that about Grossman. Most people who watch him a lot don’t really like him much. My basis for consistently ranking him highly has more to do with bonus amount and age relative to league. It sounded like you were coming around a bit on him, though.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 26, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Grossman
He’s definitely improved since last year, and considering that he’s a switch-hitter (and he came to it pretty late) he could just be a late bloomer. I haven’t given up on him, but he’s kind of a “wait and see” player for me rather than a solid prospect.
Rendon getting healthy????
Played the field today and hit a 2B and HR!
(posted on this thread as well as the other about the top pick, not sure how many would see that there now that its towards the bottom)
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Good
that is excellent news. Hopefully he goes on a mini-tear over the next week and he does enough to convince the Pirates to pick up. I think he’s still the right pick by a large margin.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
im guessing pitchers are going after him more because of playoffs?
but im not impressed by him playing 2B.
idc what position he is playing, the fact that he is on the field using his glove, showing lateral movement (bad ankle injuries) and throwing the ball(bum shoulder) indicates he is gaining some health back.
And if that is the case that he is finally being pitched too, it shows his power never really went away in the first place.
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Couldn't
have said it better myself.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 27, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Ain't too many hitters here.
Pedro Alvarez thinks Cunningham swings and misses too much. Is that really going to play up past A-Ball?
I’d move him lower and probably D’Arnaud higher. D’Arnaud is still probly better OBP than Cedeno, and around the same at everything else in my book.
The solution
1st round – Rendon
2nd round – Baez
3rd round – Swihart
Who’s with me!
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 26, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Curry
I see he had another big game at VW, he as 3-5 with 2 2B and 3 RBI today. He needs to move up soon. Maybe Altoona by the end of the season?
if it were me, i'd send him up to Altoona and bypass bradenton
altoona has miles durham at 1B, so theres no blocking there. Baker doesnt need to be promoted just yet.
so yes, Curry to altoona when possible.
Solid, Charlie.
Thanks for this, and all you do for us Bucs’ fans.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Hey Charlie
what’s going on with Kawika Emsley-Pai? Just saw his stat line for the year and he seems to be crushing the ball, albeit in only 19 games thus far. If I recall, the consensus was that he was all defense, very little bat.
by PuncSpeedChunk on May 27, 2011 12:27 AM EDT reply actions
He’s never been a big hitter before, and it’s not hard to put up crazy numbers in sample sizes that small. I’d wait before worrying too much about him. That said, I might play him ahead of Elias Diaz if I were the Pirates, but the Bucs really like Diaz.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 27, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I saw
him play 1 game for the Power, and was impressed by his approach, if nothing else. It’s not a special bat by any means, but it doesn’t look useless either.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 27, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Outstanding effort!
Thanks for putting up a detailed list about the Pirates prospects. Fingers crossed that some of these guys can turn this team around and be main components to a winning and contending ballclub in the near future.
Proud fan of Pittsburgh's professional sports teams and the Pirates too.
by Black&GoldTrain on May 27, 2011 1:58 AM EDT reply actions
In my mind, the system is coming around, but still soemwhat of a disappointing season so far.
There just hasn’t been a lot of real good surprises (outside Curry, but he has age and pedigree questions), but there have been some step backs. With the obvious small sample size caveats, here are the players who I am somewhat disappointed in thus far:
Owens
Locke
Wilson
Sanchez
Lambo
ZVR
Morris
Grossman
I was pumped about Cunningham, and he’s still one of my favorite prospects, but his K tear the past 2 weeks is concerning. So is his continuing inability to draw walks.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
i wouldnt call Wilson or Morris disappointments, and Grossman ive never really been impressed with
Morris was hurt, Wilson is pitching well, Sanchez is doing just fine and his OBP is fantastic. Owens isnt striking anyone out but hes pitching better. Locke is going through a rough patch… it happens.
lambo and ZVR i agree with. but its early.
Well, I did mention a few times how I understand the samples are small.
I would disagree about Wilson. His ERA is nice, but his Ks are down to a point where his walks aren’t acceptable and he’s not the groundball machine he was last year. Sanchez’s ISO below .100 isn’t going to cut it.
Again, it’s early, but we’re getting to a point where stats this year matter. And I would feel a lot better if the guys I mentioned were performing to the level I thought they would. I mean, that’s practically every big prospect in AA or better outside of Marte performing below expectations.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
i agree with you on
Owens, Locke, Lambo, ZVR
on the other hand I could probably name prospects who are exciting to watch now instead of disappointing. it works hand and hand, not every single guy is going to have a good season but for the most part things havent been bad.
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
What prospects would you nmae on the flip side outperforming expectations. I mean, legit prospects, not fringe or org guys.
Outside of Cunningham nd Curry, I can’t think of one off the top of my head performing better than I thought they would. Maybe Cain and Pounders?
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
There just hasn’t been a lot of real good surprises…
I would think that Farrell and Harrison certainly qualify as positive surprises. Plus guys like McPherson and Cunningham, who were expected to succeed but have thus far exceeded those expectations.
McPherson
McPherson’s about as good a surprise as you can reasonably hope for, IMO. He’s gone from org player to real prospect in the last year.
Owens
McPherson is a future major league starter, IMO. He came out of nowhere but he is a legit starting pitching prospect. I think his FB and CH are major league average right now, his curve is average when he commands it, and the CH has plus potential. I’ve seen him three times now, and I like him more each time. Like I said somewhere else in this thread, I basically agree with Charlie’s placement of him on this list: he belongs with Owens, Morris, Wilson, and Locke in that group of older low-ceiling but solid starting pitching prospects.
Well, do you consider Farrell or Harrison real prospects?
Because I don’t. And McPherson’s been good, but he’s old for his level. He’s a prospect, I suppose, but I would trade any of the disappointments I listed doing well over McPherson.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Well, do you consider Farrell or Harrison real prospects?
Depends what you mean by “real prospects”. Neither would bring a huge return in trade, and neither will probably ever play in an All-Star game. Both guys could end up having significant ML careers, though, and both are notionally worthy of a 40-man roster spot this offseason. For me, that’s a prospect.
great post
Charlie, I especially appreciate taking the time to attach videos for many of the players.
Some of these guys (like Cumpton) I’ve never seen video on. Great to have it all in one place!
Thank you!
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