According to our good friend Bob Smizik, 1/3 of the season is a good way to evaluate how a player will perform the rest of the season. This is obviously not a hard and fast rule (ask Adam LaRoche), but still made me think about the Pirates offseason, including signings, missed signings, etc. After the jump is a non-exhaustive (I'm sure I forgot some) list of players the Pirates targeted this offseason (or were linked to) and how they are doing in 2011 1/3 of the way through the season.
Notes: I'm not great at analyzing sabermetrics, so if there are more advanced stats that you are interested in, please add them in the comments. All stats courtesy of Fangraphs. Minor league signings (Atkins, Fields) not looked at.
Signings
-Kevin Correia was signed by the Pirates to a 2 yr, $8 million contract following 2 seasons in San Diego. Expected to fill rotation spot.
7-4, 70.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 3.82 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, .259 BABIP, 70.1 LOB%, 49.2 GB%, 7.9 HR/FB, 4.13 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
-Lyle Overbay was signed by the Pirates to a 1 yr, $5 million contract following some decent seasons in Toronto. Expected to start at 1B even though he is aging.
.237/.307/.382, .689 OPS, 5 HR, 20 R, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 9.3 BB%, 19.1 K%, .265 BABIP, .145 ISO, .307 wOBA, 91 wRC+, -2.4 Fld, -0.6 Bsr, -.1 WAR
-Matt Diaz was signed to a 2 yr, $4.25 million contract after being non-tendered by Atlanta. Expected to form the right handed bat in a platoon with Garrett Jones
.244/.270/.314, .584 OPS, 0 HR, 6 R, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 2.2 BB%, 14.0 K%, .284 BABIP, .070 ISO, .267 wOBA, 64 wRC+, 2.0 Fld, 0.2 Bsr, 0.1 WAR
-Scott Olsen was signed to a 1 yr, $450k contract (with incentives) after a tenure in Washington. Expected to fill a rotation spot, spot starter, or LH long relief guy.
Olsen hurt his hamstring during spring training and never played a game with the big club. He was released 2 weeks ago.
-Jose Veras was signed to a minor league deal worth $1 million. Expected to be a bullpen guy.
1-1, 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 12.66 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9, .256 BABIP, 87.7 LOB%, 37.8 GB%, 13% HR/FB, 3.15 xFIP, 0.1 WAR
Missed signings
-Jorge De La Rosa re-signed with the Rockies for 3 yrs, $30 million. Last week, we found out JDLR needs Tommy John surgery to repair damage to his throwing elbow.
5-2, 59.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 7.93 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, .267 BABIP, 70.8 LOB%, 42.5 GB%, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.53 xFIP, 1.4 WAR
-Hiroki Kuroda re-signed with the Dodgers for 1 yr, $12 million.
5-5, 72.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 6.63 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, .300 BABIP, 76.5 LOB%, 45.2 GB%, 10.8% HR/FB, 3.54 xFIP, 0.8 WAR
-Carl Pavano re-signed with the Twins for 2 yr, $17 million
2-5, 69.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 3.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, .78 HR/9, .299 BABIP, 59.0 LOB%, 47.1 GB%, 6.5% HR/FB, 4.45 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
-Brandon Webb signed with the Rangers for 1 yr, $3 million
Webb has yet to pitch in Texas this season.
Missed trades
-J.J. Hardy was traded to the Orioles (from the Twins) for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
.247/.330/.388, .718 OPS, 2 HR, 9 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 11.2 BB%, 16.5 K%, .271 BABIP, .141 ISO, .314 wOBA, 95 wRC+, 1.2 Fld, -2.6 Bsr, 0.3 WAR
-Kenshin Kawakami is still in the Braves system, pitching at AA Mississippi.
1-1, 10.2 IP, 7.59 ERA, 6.75 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 2.53 HR/9, .364 BABIP, 67.6 LOB%, 6.48 FIP (xFIP not available)
-Brendan Ryan was traded to the Mariners (from the Cardinals) for Maikel Cleto.
.277/.350/.348, .698 OPS, 0 HR, 16 R, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 6.7 BB%, 14.2 K%, .317 BABIP, .071 ISO, .316 wOBA, 102 wRC+, -2.2 Fld, 1.2 Bsr, 0.8 WAR
-Jason Bartlett was traded to the Padres (from the Rays) for Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, Cole Figueroa
.253/.302/.323, .625 OPS, 1 HR, 18 R, 17 RBI, 8 SB, 6.8 BB%, 17.2 K%, .293 BABIP, .070 ISO, .288 wOBA, 86 wRC+, -2.7 Fld, -.6 Bsr, 0.4 WAR
Rule 5
-Josh Rodriguez was selected by the Pirates from the Indians. He was returned in late April. Expectations for him varied; some expected him to compete with Cedeno for the starting SS gig, while others hoped he could push Ronny enough to improve. Obviously his stats are outrageous due to SSS.
.083/.214/.083, .297 OPS, 0 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 0 SB, 7.1 BB%, 66.7 K%, .250 BABIP, .000 ISO, .166 wOBA, -5 wRC+, -0.4 Fld, 0.4 Bsr, -0.1 WAR
-Nathan Adcock was selected by the Royals from the Pirates. He mostly served as a back end bullpen arm, but has also made a spot start or two.
1-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 4.81 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 HR/9, .321 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 49.4 GB%, 16.7% HR/FB, 4.20 xFIP, -0.2 WAR
So, if you dig through all that, I commend you. It seems that the pitchers targeted by the Pirates this year have done well if not for injury. I didn't realize Kuroda's contract was that expensive and am glad the Pirates passed on that. They are getting good pitching at a much reduced price. The targeted SSs have been less than stellar. Based on the same stats, it seems that sticking with Cedeno was the right move (.240/.304/.340, .644 OPS, 2 HR, 18 R, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 8.8 BB%, 20.7 K%, .283 BABIP, .100 ISO, .272 wOBA, 67 wRC+, 2.5 Fld, 0.7 Bsr, 0.6 WAR)...at least 1/3 of the way through the season.
And as has been discussed a lot, the signings of Diaz and Overbay have not worked out so well. More plate appearances for Diaz may improve his statline. What is troubling, though, is that Overbay's not playing the good defense that was expected.




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