How does the Pirates offseason look 1/3 of the way through the season?
by blackjackfishtaco on May 30, 2011 4:11 PM EDT
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PrintAccording to our good friend Bob Smizik, 1/3 of the season is a good way to evaluate how a player will perform the rest of the season. This is obviously not a hard and fast rule (ask Adam LaRoche), but still made me think about the Pirates offseason, including signings, missed signings, etc. After the jump is a non-exhaustive (I'm sure I forgot some) list of players the Pirates targeted this offseason (or were linked to) and how they are doing in 2011 1/3 of the way through the season.
Notes: I'm not great at analyzing sabermetrics, so if there are more advanced stats that you are interested in, please add them in the comments. All stats courtesy of Fangraphs. Minor league signings (Atkins, Fields) not looked at.
Signings
-Kevin Correia was signed by the Pirates to a 2 yr, $8 million contract following 2 seasons in San Diego. Expected to fill rotation spot.
7-4, 70.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 3.82 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, .259 BABIP, 70.1 LOB%, 49.2 GB%, 7.9 HR/FB, 4.13 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
-Lyle Overbay was signed by the Pirates to a 1 yr, $5 million contract following some decent seasons in Toronto. Expected to start at 1B even though he is aging.
.237/.307/.382, .689 OPS, 5 HR, 20 R, 19 RBI, 1 SB, 9.3 BB%, 19.1 K%, .265 BABIP, .145 ISO, .307 wOBA, 91 wRC+, -2.4 Fld, -0.6 Bsr, -.1 WAR
-Matt Diaz was signed to a 2 yr, $4.25 million contract after being non-tendered by Atlanta. Expected to form the right handed bat in a platoon with Garrett Jones
.244/.270/.314, .584 OPS, 0 HR, 6 R, 8 RBI, 2 SB, 2.2 BB%, 14.0 K%, .284 BABIP, .070 ISO, .267 wOBA, 64 wRC+, 2.0 Fld, 0.2 Bsr, 0.1 WAR
-Scott Olsen was signed to a 1 yr, $450k contract (with incentives) after a tenure in Washington. Expected to fill a rotation spot, spot starter, or LH long relief guy.
Olsen hurt his hamstring during spring training and never played a game with the big club. He was released 2 weeks ago.
-Jose Veras was signed to a minor league deal worth $1 million. Expected to be a bullpen guy.
1-1, 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 12.66 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9, .256 BABIP, 87.7 LOB%, 37.8 GB%, 13% HR/FB, 3.15 xFIP, 0.1 WAR
Missed signings
-Jorge De La Rosa re-signed with the Rockies for 3 yrs, $30 million. Last week, we found out JDLR needs Tommy John surgery to repair damage to his throwing elbow.
5-2, 59.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 7.93 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, .267 BABIP, 70.8 LOB%, 42.5 GB%, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.53 xFIP, 1.4 WAR
-Hiroki Kuroda re-signed with the Dodgers for 1 yr, $12 million.
5-5, 72.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 6.63 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9, .300 BABIP, 76.5 LOB%, 45.2 GB%, 10.8% HR/FB, 3.54 xFIP, 0.8 WAR
-Carl Pavano re-signed with the Twins for 2 yr, $17 million
2-5, 69.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 3.38 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, .78 HR/9, .299 BABIP, 59.0 LOB%, 47.1 GB%, 6.5% HR/FB, 4.45 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
-Brandon Webb signed with the Rangers for 1 yr, $3 million
Webb has yet to pitch in Texas this season.
Missed trades
-J.J. Hardy was traded to the Orioles (from the Twins) for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
.247/.330/.388, .718 OPS, 2 HR, 9 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 11.2 BB%, 16.5 K%, .271 BABIP, .141 ISO, .314 wOBA, 95 wRC+, 1.2 Fld, -2.6 Bsr, 0.3 WAR
-Kenshin Kawakami is still in the Braves system, pitching at AA Mississippi.
1-1, 10.2 IP, 7.59 ERA, 6.75 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 2.53 HR/9, .364 BABIP, 67.6 LOB%, 6.48 FIP (xFIP not available)
-Brendan Ryan was traded to the Mariners (from the Cardinals) for Maikel Cleto.
.277/.350/.348, .698 OPS, 0 HR, 16 R, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 6.7 BB%, 14.2 K%, .317 BABIP, .071 ISO, .316 wOBA, 102 wRC+, -2.2 Fld, 1.2 Bsr, 0.8 WAR
-Jason Bartlett was traded to the Padres (from the Rays) for Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, Cole Figueroa
.253/.302/.323, .625 OPS, 1 HR, 18 R, 17 RBI, 8 SB, 6.8 BB%, 17.2 K%, .293 BABIP, .070 ISO, .288 wOBA, 86 wRC+, -2.7 Fld, -.6 Bsr, 0.4 WAR
Rule 5
-Josh Rodriguez was selected by the Pirates from the Indians. He was returned in late April. Expectations for him varied; some expected him to compete with Cedeno for the starting SS gig, while others hoped he could push Ronny enough to improve. Obviously his stats are outrageous due to SSS.
.083/.214/.083, .297 OPS, 0 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 0 SB, 7.1 BB%, 66.7 K%, .250 BABIP, .000 ISO, .166 wOBA, -5 wRC+, -0.4 Fld, 0.4 Bsr, -0.1 WAR
-Nathan Adcock was selected by the Royals from the Pirates. He mostly served as a back end bullpen arm, but has also made a spot start or two.
1-0, 24.1 IP, 4.07 ERA, 4.81 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 1.48 HR/9, .321 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 49.4 GB%, 16.7% HR/FB, 4.20 xFIP, -0.2 WAR
So, if you dig through all that, I commend you. It seems that the pitchers targeted by the Pirates this year have done well if not for injury. I didn't realize Kuroda's contract was that expensive and am glad the Pirates passed on that. They are getting good pitching at a much reduced price. The targeted SSs have been less than stellar. Based on the same stats, it seems that sticking with Cedeno was the right move (.240/.304/.340, .644 OPS, 2 HR, 18 R, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 8.8 BB%, 20.7 K%, .283 BABIP, .100 ISO, .272 wOBA, 67 wRC+, 2.5 Fld, 0.7 Bsr, 0.6 WAR)...at least 1/3 of the way through the season.
And as has been discussed a lot, the signings of Diaz and Overbay have not worked out so well. More plate appearances for Diaz may improve his statline. What is troubling, though, is that Overbay's not playing the good defense that was expected.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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i still think Overbay has done okay with the glove, and his ABs have definately been better the last 2 weeks...
he is showing better hard contact than in april, hitting some bombs in PNC that would have been out in some of the other ballparks.
he has saved many runs with his glove despite his 4 errors. he is, however, working himself into a platoon situation once Pearce comes back unless Lyle continues to make hard contact. his last homer was off a LHP, by the way.
The fact that we’re hovering around .500 and have been real Road Warriors, I’m happy with the offseason signings. I think Hurdle has done a great job, especially when he outsmarted the dim witted LaTracy.
Free Pedro
by Bruce A. Ketcham on May 30, 2011 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
It looks like one of the better
offseasons we’ve seen in 18 years. Overbay and Diaz will not stay this bad. I think Corriea has a shot at keeping this up. Veras has been great.
overbay has actually been making more solid contact for almost 2 weeks now
his BA is still too low, but he looks to be swinging much better, albeit somewhat slow
How has Pavano been as valuable as Correia?
virtually same IP and WAR, yet 1 is actually good. I don’t understand.
Fangraphs WAR is based entirely on FIP (times innings pitched), which is a weighted combination of walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate — it assumes pitchers have no control over balls in play. Pavano has had a very low rate of home runs per fly ball (6.5%, below his 10% career rate), so FIP is kind to him. Also FIP doesn’t know that Correia has been getting fewer line drives and more pop-ups than Pavano, indicating that his lower BABIP (batting average on balls in play) probably isn’t pure luck (though maybe sabermetricians think line drives and pop-up percentages are luck, I don’t know).
Bottom line, fangraphs pitcher WAR should probably be taken with a grain of salt — Correia really is pitching better, most likely.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 30, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Perfectly said, Zane.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on May 30, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice summary
Sabermetricians in general agree that LD% and IFF% are under pitchers’ control, but FIP is kind of simplistic that way. IFF% has been specifically shown to be a skill, but with the great big caveat that it takes a long time to normalize – you need a few years of watching a pitcher to know whether he’s been lucky with IFF% or is actually skilled at inducing them (kind of similar to HR/FB, but iirc IFF% is less noisy – even pitchers with low HR/FB will have average seasons by rate).
The good: Correia, Veras, not moving assets for a shortstop
The bad: Overbay, Olsen
The “meh”: Beimel, Diaz.
I place Diaz in the “meh” because he’ll probably eventually hit lefties. He’s been horrible so far.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
Given Olsen's price tag
Its hard to view him as bad, there simply was no risk financial or otherwise. Overbay I would move to ‘meh.’
If Overbay's hitting the last couple weeks
is sustained for any length of time, he starts to approach “Meh,” but for now, he’s been an expensive roadblock in Pearce’s way with very little benefit. If he ends up hitting the same as Pearce but for more money, that’s still not very good.
I don’t like Overbay’s bat compared to Pierce’s but I don’t think Pierce’s is significantly better when he has to play more. Even with Overbay’s early errors, I still like his defense much, much better. He just looks so much smoother and more comfortable out there, and his increased range has allowed Walker to move over a little to help compensate for his lack of range. I would like to see Overbay platooned more, but with Alvarez, and now Pierce out, I just don’t see the opportunities to do so. Maybe if they bring Bowker up, but they need the roster spots to stabilize the left side of the infield right now. Is Overbay worth his price tag? Probably not, but its not a crippling contract that is too far over a similar player with his experience would receive, even if they had to platoon him a bit.
"Maybe if they bring Bowker up..."
Very probably Mr. Bowker will never see a Major League game without a ticket.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 31, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
i think there's a good chance
he’ll get a few games here and there with some team or the other…
by BurgherKing on May 31, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It's shocks me that Veras is worth only .1 WAR
outside of one or two bad outings he has been lights out this year
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." Wes Westrum
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
WAR really really dislikes relievers
It only cares about quality IP, and very few relievers get enough to make an impact.
Just remember that WAR says that Mariano Rivera, in a typical season, is worth as much as Andy LaRoche in 2009. It may be simply because the definition of replacement level is skewed – you get much, much more baseline credit for 150 games in the field than for 150 IP, regardless of leverage. So you have to be a pretty shitty player to play 150 games and not be worth a couple wins, while you can be the best reliever in history and only be worth a couple wins, because 150 IP don’t, according to FanGraphs’ model, matter very much.
I wonder if the premise is really supposed to be that replacing all Rivera’s appearances with, I dunno, Jesse Chavez would only cost the Yankees 2-3 wins in a season, or if they rationalize that Chavez wouldn’t really pitch in the same situations, so it’s not a 1-to-1 swap.
You can say that closers are overrated without pretending that pretty much every MLB pitcher could do an equal job, plus or minus a win.
“if they rationalize that Chavez wouldn’t really pitch in the same situations, so it’s not a 1-to-1 swap”
This one — the sabermetricians call it “bullpen chaining.” There’s an explanation here. Basically, you might think that you should adjust reliever WAR based on leverage index*, but they argue that you should cut that adjustment in half, because your highest-leverage reliever would really be replaced by your second-highest-leverage reliever, and on down the line until the replacement-level type steps into the lowest-leverage situations.
*Which measures how critical the situation is, so pitching the ninth in a 1-run game has a much higher leverage index than pitching the sixth down two. (JRoth, I figure you know this term already; just throwing it out for someone else who might read it.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 31, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Very interesting article
Thanks for share. I had heard the term, but I had never seen it explained that well. So what’s being said is that WAR has most relievers value doubled, or that it’s not as off as people typically think?
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
My grades on the moves we did make...
Correia…B
Overbay…D+
Diaz…D-
Olsen…F-
Veras…A-
Rodriguez…incomplete
The missed FA signings haven’t hurt us…and the missed trades would have been a step sideways at best. The offseason wasn’t a step back…but it wasn’t much of a step forward either.
I agree with these grades. I think Overbay and Diaz will improve to some degree, but, as was said during the offseason, there was no reason for the Pirates spend almost $10 million on players over-30 who were never that good to begin with. Not a wise use of money.
Oh, and I’d give rodriguez a grade (D or F) because his time with the Pirates is complete.
overbay was and is a better option at 1B than we had in house
the only 1B free agent out there who is having a good season is Berkman, and we werent going to sign him anyway. Everyone else has been overpriced or just awful.
by white angus on May 31, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather have the in-house options than $5 million and Overbay. They could have also gone outside the organization to get a 4-A player and hope for some luck, like the D-Backs did with Juan Miranda. A team like the Pirates should be focusing on players younger than 30 and trying to save money for a Walker or McCutchen extension.
look...
there are NO teams with NO veteran players. Overbay is on a 1 yr deal, meaning his $5MM goes off the books, which has absolutely nothing to do with extending Walker and McCutchen.
the Pirates have gotten plenty of 4A players (gawdammit i hate that term) over the last couple of seasons and you probably griped about every single one of them.
we all know that Overbay wouldnt be an allstar caliber player when he signed, yet you all seem shocked that hes not batting 250 with 15HRs by now.
he HAS outperformed both Bowker and Pearce this season for one simple reason: neither one has taken the job from him. Pearce could possible work into a platoon once he regains his footing, but Bowker couldnt even make the starting lineup at 2 different positions. bowker IS that 4A player you mention, and if Pearce comes back and struggles, he will soon be deemed this as well.
forgot my point: every young team has some veteran players
you cant get around this. its not like the pirates signed johnny damon and asked him to become our go-to guy…
“The Pirates have gotten plenty of 4A players (gawdammit i hate that term) over the last couple of seasons and you probably griped about every single one of them.”
I don’t believe I’ve griped about any of them. I’m for any and all low-cost attempts to solve a problem. They should kick the tires on someone like Clint Robinson. He probably wouldn’t be the answer, but at least there’s a possibility he could be part of the next good Pirate team. A rebuilding should not waste its time with the Sean Casey’s and Lyle Overbay’s of the world — at least not when they’re older than 32.
sorry to single you out like that
but what makes you think they havent “kicked the tires” on other players, such as clint robinson???
just because they didnt sign/trade for someone doesnt mean they didnt try.
these are fair grades
if you assume Correia comes back to earth, which is a reasonable assumption.
If we’re grading just on current performance though, I think it’s hard to grade KC any less than an “A” signing. We were reasonably hoping for what — a decent #3 starter? But KC’s pitching like a legit #2 for cheap right now. It’s not flashy but he’s been consistent.
I doubt that he can keep up this level all year, just saying that if you’re grading based on year-to-date, he’s done much more than we could have expected.
Olsen is a "no credit"
It’s like taking a course success/audit, where if you pass then you get credits toward your degree (but not your GPA) but if you fail, or stop coming, it just shows up as a course you audited. It doesn’t affect your GPA at all.
The Bucs spent bupkes on Olsen and he never pitched for them. No harm was done. I’m a lot more concerned about Diaz, who looks to be clogging up the roster for two years.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 31, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Correia has completely stabilized the rotation
He’s leading the league in wins and costs $4million. B is way too low at this point.
The biggest loss is
Bartolo Colon!!!
Nutting is too cheap to pay for the stem cell therapy!!
Thanks. Good stuff.
For me, the disappointment in the offseason wasn’t the acquisition of any particular player. Rather, it was the pure conventionality of the thought processes behind those acquisitions. This offseason could have been engineered by Littlefield. I had higher expectations for this front office. The one item PBC had that nearly every other team wanted was payroll flexibility. I wish we would have explored other teams bad contracts, like Lohse from Cards—the cards were desperate to get rid of his 2 yrs/$25 million contract and were even willing to include talent apparently (they needed $$ for Pujols and wanted to get in on Uggla). I wish the club would have found a long-term piece using its payroll flexibility (and the Lohse example perhaps doesn’t fit).
yeah, the Lohse example is nuts, no offense
another team’s bad contracts arent bad contracts if they are performing up to them, right???
none taken, w.a.
And that’s kind of what I’m trying (and doing a bad job) of getting at. Last year, Lohse was terrible. So terrible that the cards — if Stl. Post-Dispatch sports blogs are to be believed — were actually offering talent plus Lohse to get his contract off the books. They needed the $25 million to throw at Pujols extension, which they were desperately trying to get done before this season. And they wanted in on Uggla, but couldn’t offer him the $10 million/year extension that Atlanta could.
In retrospect, the bucs could have had a starter who, as you say, is actually earning his “bad” contract plus whatever other talent the cards may have thrown in. Obviously, this is all 20-20 hindsight. I just think there were some creative “rebound” risks out there that COULD payoff more than the known, very limited upside risk of Overbay or Olson, for example.
If you can provide actual examples, then ok
but just saying we should have found some hidden gems isn’t going to gain you much support.
I’d say Veras and Correia have been exactly what you described. Overbay… at least we didn’t waste $5m more on Pena/Lee is about all I can say for him. Diaz, I hold out some hope he can come around but it’s more about roster spot with him than salary.
Oh, so you want me to back up my opinions with actual examples!
Heresy! AGree on Veras and the club’s acquisition of bullpen talent in general. And definitely agree on Pena/Lee, which I have always been against. Again, the good is that this FO didn’t hamstring the future. But some clubs’ bad contracts sure would have been upgrades for us (Zambrano and Lohse, just to mention a couple).
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