An addition to: "The # 1 pick in historical perspective "

by Schide on May 31, 2011 8:17 PM EDT

Basically I wanted to list the fWAR of all the #1 picks, minus the players drafted in the last few years. I was going to just post this as a reply in that thread, but the lack of formatting made it unreadable.

Career WAR is self-explanatory. WAR/150 is a batter's WAR per 150 games played, while WAR/200IP in the same, but per 200 innings pitched. They're not exactly comparable, and 180 IP might have been better, but I went with 200. Top 5 Peak WAR is the average of each player's 5 best WAR seasons. If they didn't play that many seasons, then the total was divided by however many seasons they did play.

		Career WAR	WAR/150G - WAR/200IP	Top 5 Peak WAR
2007	David Price	7.8	3.7	2.0
2006	Luke Hochevar	5.3	2.3	1.0
2005	Justin Upton	9.8	3.1	2.0
2004	Matthew Bush	0.0	0.0	0.0
2003	Delmon Young	1.2	0.3	0.4
2002	Bryan Bullington	0.0	0.0	0.0
2001	Joe Mauer	33.7	6.0	5.9
2000	Adrian Gonzalez	22.9	3.8	4.7
1999	Josh Hamilton	17.6	5.4	3.4
1998	Pat Burrell	21.6	2.0	3.0
1997	Matt Anderson	0.8	0.6	0.4
1996	Kris Benson	15.0	2.4	2.8
1995	Darin Erstad	29.6	2.7	4.0
1994	Paul Wilson	8.7	1.8	1.6
1993	Alex Rodriguez	110.4	7.0	9.7
1992	Phil Nevin	17.4	2.1	3.6
1991	Brien Taylor	0.0	0.0	0.0
1990	Chipper Jones	85.8	5.6	7.3
1989	Ben McDonald	21.8	3.4	3.5
1988	Andy Benes	35.7	2.9	4.2
1987	Ken Griffey	83.9	4.7	8.6
1986	Jeff King	17.8	2.2	3.1
1985	B.J. Surhoff	35.6	2.3	3.5
1984	Shawn Abner	-0.8	-0.3	0.1
1983	Tim Belcher	31.4	2.6	3.7
1982	Shawon Dunston	8.9	0.7	1.4
1981	Mike Moore	35.7	2.5	4.4
1980	Darryl Strawberry	43.2	4.1	5.4
1979	Al Chambers	-0.4	-1.0	-0.1
1978	Bob Horner	20.9	3.0	3.0
1977	Harold Baines	45.3	2.4	3.7
1976	Floyd Bannister	33.9	2.8	4.1
1975	Danny Goodwin	NA	NA	NA
1974	Bill Almon	4.6	0.6	1.3
1973	David Clyde	3.6	2.2	0.9	*No WAR data for 1973
1972	Dave Roberts	2.4	0.5	0.9
1971	Danny Goodwin	-0.9	-0.5	0.1
1970	Mike Ivie	9.2	1.6	1.9
1969	Jeff Burroughs	21.6	1.9	3.3
1968	Tim Foli	11.0	1.0	1.8
1967	Ron Bloomberg	9.3	3.0	1.9
1966	Steve Chilcott	0.0	0.0	0.0
1965	Rick Monday	38.0	2.9	4.0

AVG		21.4	2.2	2.8

What to conclude from this? Well for one, every pick averages out to be at least an average performer for the length of their careers, and even better during their peak. Like SHOOTFOR2010 said, they are 3 fairly obvious HOFs in Griffey, Jones and Rodriguez, although there is fairly steep drop-off from them to the next player in terms of career WAR, Harold Baines with 45.3. Of course, a few players drafted since 2000 can still get to that level or above, though now Mauer has an injury history and might move off catcher, and Gonzalez plays 1st, which is no help when attempting to accumulate WAR, and might very well have to DH eventually. Hamilton has already missed so much, so he probably have the chance to accumulate as much as he might have. That's about all I have to say I guess.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Looking at this, I have one thought.

Considering the careers of Al Chambers and Shawn Abner, I see the Pirates’ strategy in drafting Bryan Bullington. They wanted to ensure they didn’t draft a player “good” enough to accumulate enough playing time to cost the Pirates wins. Genius.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Jun 1, 2011 8:31 AM EDT reply actions