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Hurdle, The Bunt, The Book And Dan Fox
This is in relation to Charlie's post about Hurdle deciding to bunt with McCutchen on Friday, but there are enough other points that I thought it was worth a separate FanPost. I was in Hurdle's office and specifically asked him about the bunt situation and a bunch of other things.
1. When Hurdle said he "thought about a bunch of things," he then did go on to discuss what exactly he thought about. Most of these things had to do with player personnel moves. I ripped him for bunting both on twitter and on the postgame show. Having talked to him about it, my impressions are this: He liked the idea of bunting. Period. That's it. He did think about other things, but he wanted a man on second and if it cost him an out, so be it. He didn't talk about Cutch's DP stats specifically that Colin Dunlap referenced in his article.
Obviously I and many others disagree with this thinking, but that was his answer.
I asked Xavier Paul about running and he said it was a bit sloppy around first. I asked if he had a green light to go on his own and he said yes, but it was clear in that situation with the bunt on, it wasn't his call. But he did say the conditions weren't great. J.R. Towles was behind the plate and had only thrown out one of 11 basestealers. Unfortunately I didn't get a chance to ask about him directly, but, as noted, Hurdle said the pitcher was neither fast nor slow to the plate.
2. I asked if he considered burning Garrett Jones when the Astros brought in a lefty. The more I think about it, this was as big, if not bigger, a tactical error as the bunt. Jones was 1-for-10 against lefties this year and both Steve Pearce and Ryan Doumit were available on the bench.
This is where being a man down (with Pedro Alvarez out) hurt Hurdle. He talked about wanting to be able to score in either the eighth or ninth and figured if Chris Snyder got a hit in the ninth he would have to run for him. I asked if he would run any of his pitchers and he said neither Kevin Correia or Jeff Karstens was much of an upgrade and that left only Sunday's starter James McDonald, and he didn't want to use him there.
When talking about pinch-hitting Doumit he mentioned he would have left him in the game in right. He said that Doumit has practiced the last two days there but probably wasn't ready and wanted to give him a few more days of serious work before games. Having Snyder hurt in spring training, Doumit focused exclusively on catching. I don't get the impression that Doumit will get starts in right. Rather, when they make late-inning moves and use Doumit off the bench they would keep him in the game in case something happened to Snyder. While this hurts defensively, the situation means the team is probably behind and isn't a bad idea.
The larger point is he should have hit Pearce for Jones and I think he over-thought this one. But, again, he expressed what his thought process was very clearly. I just think he got it wrong in my opinion.
3. I asked about his relationship with Dan Fox and how open the lines of communication were with Dan and his people. (Dan Fox is the head of the Pirates Baseball System's Development and came out of Baseball Prospectus.) It is clear that Hurdle has a lot of respect for Fox and he said he has had Fox and his people sit with the coaches on various occasions so that they understood there were more tools available to them. I will have the audio of this part of the conversation up on the Extra innings website in the next 24 hours if you would like to hear his full response.
4. Charlie linked to Tom Tango's book, The Book, as I did on my website a few days ago. Yesterday I gave Clint a copy of The Book. (I meant to do this before the went on their west coast trip, but didn't get down to the stadium before they left. This was NOT directly in response to the Cutch bunt, but to his decisions as a whole.) Hurdle is very receptive to new thinking and realizes he doesn't know everything. The Book isn't exactly new, but he seemed genuinely pleased to have it and said he would read it.
5. I again asked about Brad Lincoln and discussed his peripherals vs. front line stats. He said the team has had eyes on all of Lincoln's starts and the one before the last wasn't particularly good, but they were closely monitoring the situation. My take is that if Lincoln can put 2-3 starts together he will be called up with Karstens going back to the long-man role.
Brian Burres is now back in the equation because there is an open spot on the 40-man. Sean Gallagher has really hurt himself with a string of bad starts in Indy. The opportunity was there and it may not be much longer.
UPDATE: The Lincoln question was asked directly to Neal Huntington on his show today and he said Lincoln has not been able to throw his breaking ball or changeup for a strike when he was behind in the count. His fastball was being elevated and what was causing him to be hit at the AAA level would certainly cause him to be hit at the major league level. As you might imagine, he needs to put together a string of good starts to get the call.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Great
Post, Rec’d.
It’s hard to expect “old school” guys (if you will) to suddenly abandon everything they’ve been taught – small ball etc. – and suddenly do everything by the numbers, the book, the math – essentially sabermetrics. The OP simply having the general sense that Hurdle is both humble (“Hurdle . . . realizes he doesn’t know everything”) and willing to learn (“Hurdle is very receptive to new thinking”) is a very good sign.
Remember, it takes time to for people to give up their old ways and suddenly accept paradigm shifts. The way I see it is Hurdle can develop into a better game manager, which will we need down the road more than right now, and I feel like he’s a great personality for our young players and will develop talent and get the most out of their talent. I feel like our players genuinely enjoy playing for him. Now that’s he’s willing to learn too, I am pleased with Clint Hurdle as the Pirates manager, for now and into the future.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on May 8, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions
Big balls, I love it!
Giving Hurdle a copy of the book; I was wondering if someone would have the guts to do it. Reading Hurdle saying he’d like someone to give him a copy of the book I thought he was being fecitious, but if he seemed to geniunely appreciate it I take that as a good thing even if he thinks it’s bullshit. Nice job, recd.
I heard a Hurdle mention 'the book' in an interview earlier this season.
Can anybody clarify if Clint was referring to (or had knowledge of) Tom Tango’s work at that time?
by RDV across the sea on May 8, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
He was making fun....
of the idea that there is “A Book”. Saying if anyone would give it to him he would read it with them.
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So Hurdle wasn’t familiar with the statistical research that has been done on the value of bunting in various game situations?
I’d also like to say… I live outside the USA, so I can’t listen to the Pirates post game shows or even daily Pittsburgh sports talk radio, but I appreciate you posting much of your program content on Bucs Dugout.
by RDV across the sea on May 8, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure...
he has had some exposure to the statistical research through Dan Fox and others. I showed him the win expectancy matrix that I had printed out and put inside the book. He clearly understood it. He also pointed out that it “doesn’t take into account the kind of team you have.” This is true. There are a lot of contextual things that aren’t accounted for in the table and I think that is why he may find it less valuable than others think it may be.
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I think that bunt was the day before Hurdle mentioned the Pirates having trouble stretching out leads late in games. 44 vs 40 percent isn’t much difference so the Pirates problems late in games might have been making things like bunts and steals and hit and runs even more appealing to Hurdle than usual.
If Pedro would go on the DL
Anyone think Josh Harrison could be added to the 40 Man Roster and Called up?
Pedro's not going to DL
cleared to PH today.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 8, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Huntington did mention him as a possibility if it did happen...
though he was a bit reluctant given that Harrison had just come off the DL. But as C42 said below it’s a moot point because Pedro is not going on the DL.
Why would Brian Burres be back in the equation?
Maybe I’m missing something. He’s been an oil can in Triple-A, and Justin Wilson has greatly outperformed him. Can’t imagine adding Burres to the 40 man over Wilson if you need a major league LHP in either starting or relief.
by Adam Reynolds on May 8, 2011 5:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's a real head scratcher.
I’m not sure what Huntington sees in him. I didn’t mind having hin in AAA as an emergency guy but he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. Lincoln threw another solid outing today so I find it hard to believe that Burress would be ahead of him on the depth chart. I guess the way I took it is that Huntington expected more out of Owens, Lincoln and Wilson to this point and the fact that they have struggled a bit means that we would probably need to turn to Burress if a couple more guys were to get hurt before Ohlendorf is ready.
I don't think Burres is
ahead of Lincoln. But just telling you that Hurdle mentioned his name. It surprised me, so I asked the follow up about the 40-man.
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Yep...
I think the order if someone went down to day would be Lincoln…….and let’s hope it doesn’t happen Burres. I don’t think the younger guys are ready. Burres has been erratic, but he’s also done it before and if it were just one start I think that is who you would see.
I think NH would really have liked to see Gallagher do well and be that next guy (and I would have too), but it just hasn’t happened.
I think after Lincoln’s start yesterday, he is going to get the call if he can do it one more time in AAA.
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Completely agree...
it’s a shame that Gallagher hasn’t seized the opportunity. I’m wondering if he or Leroux get bumped when Ascanio comes off the DL. HUntington said he’s been hitting 98 mph but is struggling with command in the 2nd inning of multiple inning work. Sounds encouraging for a guy that had labrum surgery.
I was really
high on Ascanio before the injury. If he is back to 98 that is very encouraging.
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Gallagher isn’t on the 40-man anymore.
by Charlie Wilmoth on May 10, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Right,
but like Burres benefits at the moment because there is an open spot. NH seemed genuinely disappointed with his performance on his show on Sunday.
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LOL,
Would be nice, but I’m sure my impact is zero. Dan Fox and Neal are on the same page. Not sure why it doesn’t filter down. I’ll try to sort that out if I can have time with them.
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That was...
in reply to Mr. E.
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Thank You
You’ve done a great service for the Pirates and the fans. As much as I like Huntington, this is his failure for not communicating this to Hurdle before the season started. As I’ve posted before, managerial duties need to move to SABR and the manager can be in charge of fundamentals and morale.
by Kosstic518 on May 9, 2011 9:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Lincoln needs to do more than have a few good starts. He needs to fix his erratic command of his pitches. Lincoln can throw pitches into the strike zone. But his fastball lacks sharp movement. He can’t leave it up in the zone. And he needs to spot it well to make it effective. The same applies to his curve and change.
Lincoln can make this work. McDonald has made it work for him. So…
s.zielinski
Exactly what Huntington said...
And apparently that’s what he has been doing the last couple of games. Huntington also said that Lincoln has developed the change up to the point that it is now a weapon but…wait for it…needs to command it better so he can use it in tight situations. We may actually get some useful starts out of Lincoln yet.
Let me get this straight
Great post. Props to dtoddwin! Only one problem, Hurdle is still not making sense:
Hurdle claims he didn’t pull Jones and use Pearce or Doumit to hit against the lefty reliever because he was worrying about having to PINCH RUN for Snyder in the 9th?!? He wasn’t willing to use one of them up with a runner 3rd down by 1 run in the 8th to save them for a hypothetical pinch running situation the next inning. Wow.
I actually hope he was lying when he said that, trying to sound like he had a justification for a bad decision. If he really thinks that way, he is an even worse tactician than I imagined.
On the other hand, I do like his idea of getting Doumit into RF late in games. If that gives Hurdle the comfort level/fig leaf that he needs to use Doumit more often to PH, then I’m all for it. Hurdle is clearly trying to carve a niche as the most prolific double switcher in MLB!
enough already
just because Doumit has two wonderful game changing blasts this season is not enough of a reason to put him in RF.
he looks to be better behind the plate in a soft platoon situation. its keeping him fresh on both offense and especially defense. lets say we leave him alone for now.
Read the words already
I do like his idea of getting Doumit into RF late in games. If that gives Hurdle the comfort level/fig leaf that he needs to use Doumit more often to PH, then I’m all for it.
The sacrifice
Does the scoring expectation between man on first, 0 out and man on second, one out differ from inning to inning? How about the win expectation?
Thinking that Leyland used to bunt a lot in the first inning. If we give him credit for being sabremetrically aware at all, we’d say he was trying to get ahead ASAP because the team that scores first tends to win at something like a 60%+ clip, IIRC. So even if the scoring expectation would drop slightly, maybe the WIN expectation of actually scoring in the first inning (or second, or third) with the aid of the bunt went up significantly?
Also, Earl Weaver used to say, “If you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get,” but sometimes one rrun is all you need.
I think....
they are doing more analysis by inning and situation, but I don’t have any of that data if it has been published.
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As they should.
I’m thinking there’s more of a surprise factor in bunting in the early innings (unless you do it all the time, like Leyland did) and therefore a better likelihood of reaching base on a hit or an error than in the bottom of the ninth, when everyone is playing for it and the bunt is almost certainly an out. But that’s purely subjective.
Understand ...
I’m not really arguing in favor of the bunt, I tend more to agree with Weaver, I’m just saying that perhaps it works much better as a tactic in some situations than others, to the extent it works at all.
weaver also had guys like ripken, murray, powell, decinces, ford, robinson, singleton, robinson...
our big bopper has 1 HR this year. and sorry to burst anyones bubble, but our best extra base guy is a 34 yr old who cant hit righties…
theres nothing wrong with smallball when you have a lineup like ours.
Pretty sure that the way they calculate run expectation just depends on the base-out situation, not on the inning, but win expectancy definitely depends on inning. And I think the bunt would be worse in the early innings (barring things like having a bad hitter bunt), because in the early innings the first and second run are worth close to the same amount, and in the late innings the first run is worth a lot more.
Think of it this way: if you score one run in the first inning, the other team has eight or nine chances to get it back, and you have lots of chances to add to your lead; so the second run is a lot more likely to make a difference. If you score one run in the top of the ninth, the other team has only one chance to score at all, and the second run is a lot less likely to matter. (The extreme case is the bottom of the ninth, where the second run doesn’t matter at all in a tie game.)
The exact values are situation-dependent though (and dependent on how many runs you’re likely to score — I’ve given some posters some crap for saying that you should bunt against tough pitchers, but it is better than bunting when everyone’s getting on). One of the few sabermetrically approved bunt situations was the one against the Cubs where Hurdle had Overbay bunt with Tabata and Walker on second and first, because it got the tying run to third with one out. That bunt did work out, when Walker scored from second on Pedro’s infield single.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on May 9, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
You have no idea...
what kind of team we have right now; it’s the beginning of May; just stop it already.
More on minor leaguers
I work for the Norfolk Tides and we just finished up a series with the Indians. First off Lincoln looked great constantly got ahead of hitters had about 6 or 7 ks. Very efficient for 6 innings of work. I am not able to watch every pitch of the game so I cannot talk about his off speed stuff but he really seemed to fool the Norfolk hitters and get a lot of weak fly balls and ground balls. Presely really impressed me he seemed to have 3 hits every game was all over the place hitting multiple doubles and a triple and stealing a few bases. Gallagher really struggled here could not get ahead and seemed to leave many balls over the plate and got hit really hard giving up a few home runs. Justin Wilson has been throwing good all year but really struggled in his start here. Also being hit very hard and was run out of the game early. I am not really a burress fan but he really threw well. Went deep into the game and just shut down the Tides. Chase D’arnaud really looks smooth in the field playing 2 games at short and 2 at second. Seemed to be streaky at the plate would hit a ball hard then roll over for an easy ground ball. Dusty brown and Jason jarramilo split time one as the DH and one catching, both looked really good at the plate getting multiple hits or hitting the ball hard. Gorkys hernandez really disappointed me he can’t seem to find anything at the plate rarely hit the ball hard once in the 4 game series. Lambo also struggled at the plate but with him a see more potential he smoked a few balls for out and had a few hits still not great but I can see the possible developement. Pedro ciriaco really was disappointing as well he had such a good spring and now is hitting around .175 in AAA. He just looked okay in the field as well also playing short and second nothing spectacular but also nothing bad. This is my main take away from a 4 game series here in Norfolk.
by Matt Moyer on May 9, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Wow!
Thanks for coming aboard with this!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on May 9, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks...
for the insight. Nice to hear good things about Lincoln.
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