Answers To The Pirates' Season Coming In June
by David Todd on Jun 1, 2011 11:52 AM EDT
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PrintIt's June 1, and the National League has already become pretty clearly delineated. There are seven teams currently at least four games over .500. The only real surprise team in the group is Arizona, which sits atop the NL West with a record of 30-25.
If you wanted to sift this a little further it separates nicely. The top three teams (the Phillies, Marlins and Cardinals) are all at least nine games over .500. The other four (the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Braves and Giants) are either four or five games over.
The other nine teams in the National League have records of .500 or worse. This group divides pretty easily as well. Cincinnati sits alone at .500. The Reds would be solidly in the upper half if they weren't 1-5, at home no less, against the Pirates. The Pirates are the only other team in the National League within three games of .500 either above or below. That seems rather odd, so let's leave the Reds in their own group right at .500.
The next group of four is led by the Pirates, three games under .500, and contains the Mets, Rockies and Dodgers, who are all four games under. The last group consists of the Nationals, Cubs, Astros and Padres, who are all at least seven games under.
If you follow the Pirates this is what is interesting. The Bucs are 3-13 against those top seven teams and 22-15 against everyone else (this includes 2-1 against Detroit in interleague play). Unlike last year, the Pirates have done a very good job of taking care of business against bad teams. But they're getting pounded by good ones.
In June, the Pirates play the Phillies three times and the Diamondbacks three times, and they have a series against each the Indians, Red Sox and Blue Jays in interleague play. 15 of the 27 games they play in June are against "good" teams. The other twelve are against the Mets (6), Astros (3) and Orioles (3).
It is also worth noting the Pirates have played 30 or their first 53 games on the road. After winning only 17 games on the road all of last year, the Pirates are currently a massively-improved 16-14 away from home. This imbalanced schedule will start to even out in June as the Pirates play 16 of their 27 games at PNC Park, where they are only 9-14 thus far, but were 40-41 last year.
Stating the obvious, the Pirates need to play better at home if they want to have any contact with the top 7-8 teams in the NL, three of whom are in their own division, the rest of the season. And they need to start beating good teams. The upcoming 10-game homestand is the Pirates' longest of the season and it opens with three against the Phillies and three against the Diamondbacks, two of the good teams.
The team's 18-year losing streak has been well-documented. So has the fact that during this century the latest they have even had a .500 record was June 11, 2005 when they stood at 30-30. At the end of the coming homestand, the Pirates will have played 65 games. At that point we should have a pretty good idea if this current team can match or exceed that mark and stay relevant to the playoff conversation as we enter the summer, or, with the draft behind us, the focus will again turn to minor league prospects and trade-deadline speculation.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Another kind of answer
Prepare for the 2012-16 seasons by trading Maholm, Hanrahan and a few others for high quality prospects.
s.zielinski
Yeah, sale the team for some "high quality prospects."
Maybe MLB will give the Bucs a 45-man roster to use for the offseason.
パトリック
Right
Sale the team for high quality prospects instead of keep the team to drive for 75.
s.zielinski
If you think you can get better prospects than we already have for Maholm, fine, but I doubt it.
The same goes for the other vets usually talked about in trade discussions this year.
Hanrahan could be a different story with the return.
You might see the team interested in trading unproven prospects for a return for the big league club too.
パトリック
You might see the team interested in trading unproven prospects for a return for the big league club too.
That might happen in the off season, unless special circumstances open up during the run up to the trade deadline.
For instance: The Dodgers might have a fire sale; the Mets may also sell off much of their team, although the Mets really do not have a player the Pirates would want and whom they can pay the going rate.
s.zielinski
We can't trade for Wright
Pedro Alvarez wants to play third base and his agent is Boras.
- Kevin Gorman
Boras is irrelevant.
Alvarez will walk for better money if he wants to whether he is at 3rd or 1st. You simply do not let agents dictate on field personnel moves.
2 options
If they are near the cellar in july, look for trades.
If they are close to 500 in july, keep most of the guys and see what happens, and if they dont keep the guys that are free agents at the end of the end of the season, they can get extra draft picks for compensation purposes.
as much as I like to see the Pirates shoot for .500 this year
They have to contend with St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Cincy. No easy task.
At the same time they won’t play these teams until late-July. If the Pirates are within 5 games behind hovering around the .500 mark by then maybe they should go for it.
But the way the Marlins/Braves are strangeholding the wild card and St. Louis firmly atop the NL Central it would be best to SALE THE TEAM and top to get top dollar out of Maholm and Hanrahan.
Very Nice Post
We can only play better against the good teams and at home! WHOOOO!
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 12:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The only problem with judging the Pirates after the upcoming homestand...
is that pretty much the rest of the month, we play interleague…which we have not done well with. We may be OK against the Snorioles…but the Indians, Red Sox and Blue Jays are going to be a struggle.
Well technically
It’s a .667 clip. SALE THE SATAN!
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
No question that is ......
going to be a huge test and one of the reasons, with Doumit out, that we may well see Alex Presley recalled by then with either Paul or Wood DFA’d or Ciriaco sent down.
That is where not having Doumit and Pearce is really going to make a difference. Our bench is incredibly weak right now.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
The Pirates arent going .500.
Sorry. Decent shot they won’t in 2012 either if Huntington executes the plan of not playing for .500 but instead playing for the playoffs. There should be a mass exodus at both the 2011 and 2012 deadline. The 2011 team wouldn’t even go .500 if we didn’t trade anyone.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 1, 2011 1:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
this post doesnt make a lick of sense
they will be worse by shooting for the playoffs than they would be by aiming for 500? and why would there be mass exodus at the next two deadlines when a large part of the roster is under team control thru 2014?
i think he's referring to the rule5 situation and also the number of players due for arbitration in the next 2 years
both of those are going to play a huge part in the team’s 40man roster
oh i agree with that 100%
but i didnt interpret Kosstics post that way at all.
No that's not what he meant...
Kosstic518 is reiterating his stance that the team should continue to trade established veterans in which the Pirates only have a couple more years of control. This has been his position for as long as I can remember. I think there is no way that will happen for a couple of reasons: 1) the core is in Pittsburgh and the Pirates will supplement it, not tear it down and 2) Huntington has said that the talent acquisition phase of the plan is over. As such I would be incredibly surprised to see all of Maholm, Doumit, Veras, and Hanrahan traded. I think the front office believes this team has a legitmate shot at a wild card next season. Depending on how the rest of this season plays out I don’t see that it’s out of the question.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Slick clarified my opinion.
My question for those who believe we have a shot for next year is say you need roughly 88 wins to win the wild card and the team is currently a 75 win team (which its not in my opinion, I think its more like high 60s), where are you going to find 13 WAR in upgrades between the 2011 team and the opening day 2012 team?
We don’t have the talent to make that big of a jump in one year during 2012, but I think we may in 2013.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 1, 2011 5:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Can Pedro come around, can we get a good 1B/SS in 2012, and can a guy like Taillon reach the majors at some point in 2012 to anchor the pitching staff?
Those are the questions for whether we will compete in 2012. Might be a stretch, but who knows.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 1, 2011 5:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Okay, lets break this down.
Assuming the Pirates are a 75 win team in 2011, and that they need 88 wins to get the wild card…
Cedeno is on pace for roughly 1.5 WAR
Overbay is on pace for roughly -1.0 WAR
Say our 3B total is on pace for roughly -1.0 WAR, even though I think we will have a better total than that.
Karstens is on pace for roughly 0.3 WAR.
Total thats -0.2 WAR, so you need roughly 12.8 WAR over what we already have to make a wild card run. Split four ways, that’s 3.2 WAR over each. Pedro at 3B could easily produce WAR of roughly 2.2 next year, but where are you going to find a much better short stop with the assets we currently have? Where are you going to find a first basement worth 2+ WAR with our limited financial resources? Do you actually think Taillon is going to come up and in a portion of a full season provide 3.2 wins above Karstens?
Highly doubtful. We need upgrades at way more than 4 positions to compete. We aren’t going to upgrade at all of those positions in the course of one short year.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I forgot to add
If the Pirates aren’t a 75 win team, the contribution from the four spots you mentioned above what we already have becomes way higher in order to compete.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Uh, Pedro
could “easily” produce a WAR of 5+ next year. So could Walker, Tabata, and Cutch. It would be very surprising if all of them do, but it would also be surprising if the 4 of them don’t account for 14+ wins as they enter their peak years.
I mean, if you think that Pedro’s age 25 season will be nothing more than 162/95X his age 23 season, that’s your right, but it’s not actually a median projection.
Walker, Cutch and Tabata are already accounting for wins this year.
The would have to well surpass this year’s total WAR to help make a difference. The question is where do you get an additional 13+ WAR on top of what we already have?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
this metric is inconclusive for one big reason... hot streaks...
when some of these batters, like an alvarez or an overbay, goes streaking, it can help lead the team to more wins, which could possibly push the team past that 75 win mark.
however, slumps can do just the opposite. the problem with our offense is that many of the hitters have been slumping at the same time and the streaks have been a rare occurance.
put a few hot hitters together, the win total can jump, as long as the pitchers hold up their end of course
What happens if the pitching ends its 2 month hot streak?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 1, 2011 10:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
thats what i said in my last sentence, as long as the pitching holds up
thats why i dont like the WAR nonsense… this is a team game. there are hot streaks and slumps. pitching is good one week, sorry the next… offense and defense the same way…
damn thy metrics!!! just play the game already!!!
aieeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's a team game played in individual players
The problem is trying to quantify each of their performances
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Yes. GM’s have to quantify to come up with contract numbers. The rest of us…not so much.
Put on your dancin' shoes.
GMs also have to calculate how good their team is in terms of how many games they should win.
We fans do it not because we have to but because we enjoy it.
Cedeno stays the same or slightly better. Pearce/Jones/Hague/Curry produce 2 WAR at 1B. That’s a 3 win improvement. Pedro produces 4 WAR next year, that’s 5 more. Some combo of Wilson/Owens/Mcpherson/whoever gets us 2 WAR. Improvement from Tabata/Walker and voila, there is 13 more wins.
I think some of those assumptions are on the high side
But that assumes nothing unlucky happens, no injuries, no regress, no unforseen events. That’s asking for a lot of things to break our way.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 2, 2011 7:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think asking Huntington to find average production at first or that Pedro, Tabata and our #5 starter perform to expectations (don’t even have to exceed them) is asking all that much. But yeah of course we will have to catch some breaks, just as any other team does. I’m just saying it’s possible.
yeah, they are all assumptions
no offense, but i cant go off of something like that. you watch the guys play and you can tell with your own eyes if they are improving or not.
for example, Tabata’s average is still down, yet hes making very good contact like he did earlier in the season. chances are, his numbers will go up…
guessing a guy’s WAR makes no sense to my dense arse. not all players on a team will have a positive wins above replacement, and that goes for the really good teams too.
we shouldnt expect all our players to be this way. the game is more than just numbers, right?
You own eyes can deceive
but there is a metric for what you see. Using the rough xBABIP calculator provided by The Hardball Times, we can punch in Tabata’s numbers. His BABIP in May was .310, but his expected was .334. He was a little under what his raw numbers would indicate, and that is using an average player. His speed may make his expected BABIP even a little higher. His line LD% is up from 9.8% to 15.8%. There are metrics that back up what you see.
As for hot and cold streaks, sometimes teams win when the pitcher sucks and the offense is on fire, and vice-versa. Sometimes the pitcher is awesome and the offense can’t get a hit. These “streaks” tend to balance out over a long period of time and the performance will be roughly equal to the average aggregate performance of the players over the course of the year. Sometimes the Cards win when Pujols goes hit-less, and sometimes they lose when he has 4 hits, over the course of the year those things balance, and he adds “wins” to the team.
by Wizard of Woz on Jun 2, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Can’t we just look at the sky instead of looking at radar screens and weather forecasts.
But:
Something to avoid.
s.zielinski
I'm not sure I understand your criticism
to translate to non-sabr talk: “I think we can get avg. production at first base next year, Pedro could be pretty darn good and we could have a solid 5th starter. I also think Walker and Tabata are capable of more than they are giving right now.”
My eyes tell me all of these things, as well as pedigree and such.
Sign Barry Bonds to break the 18 year curse
Sign Barry Bonds to the team and let appear in atleast one game ,so as to end the losing curse the Pirates have had since he was traded!!!!!!!!!!!!1
and with the first pick...
The Pirates select Sid Breams son! Flawless Plan!
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Im confused...
People have told me for years Pirates can’t contend against, Cards, Cubs, Brew Crew, Reds, Astros. The rays could never win a division with the Red Sox and Yanks. The Pirates pitching is good enough for the playoffs. So why trade anyone. You can say well they will get worse and I will say did you even think there was a chance for them to pitch this good? If Pedro comes back hot and somehow we got a good hitting Right fielder or first baseman why couldn’t we compete for the Playoffs?
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 3:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
But they still lack the high end talent to compete....
The Pirates have successfully restocked the farm system so they are no longer in the position where the have to trade people. But, they still lack enough high end talent to realistically compete on a yearly basis (barring lightning-in-a-bottle scenarios like the current pitching staff is riding). So if there’s the opportunity to trade Maholm, Hanrahan, Veras, etc. for some high upside talent that could put us in a better position to compete in the next couple years, I think we should do it. But there is certainly no reason to stockpile more C+ prospects. We already have plenty of those.
Im just not sure if the guys we have will bring in high end prospects and as a team it might look good to fans and ticket holders to sign maholm long term. Would be nice to see a guy who came through the system and retire for the Pirates. He is only 29
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 5:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The rotation is not playoff calibur.
Stack our top three against playoff teams from last year and tell me what you come up with.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 1, 2011 5:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Stack our ERA now
Hurdle has this team looking like the Rockies when he coached them he gets the most out of his pitchers but we are lacking a bat or two. We are not that bad!
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 6:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ERA?
Come on, please.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Look at the score now ERA is coming down more. The team is clicking we have a chance!
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 8:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You expect me to change my opinion after three and a half innings of one game in a 162 game season?
I can’t tell if this is serious or not.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I am serious
Im not saying the Pirates have the best pitching staff. But these guys want to WIN. Let’s say Pedro was batting 270 with 10 or so home runs now and we had a first baseman with similar production. I could see the Pirates being 3 games over 500… Right in the playoff picture.
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 9:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Out of curiousity
How many games do you think the Pirates are going to win this year?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Well, I just asked.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 1, 2011 10:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Dumb question but here it goes...
If we keep this team together anywhere from high 70’s to low 80’s on wins. Pedro is coming back and if he ends better than he did last year Pirates will score runs. Our highest batting average is like 260 or so. Doumit will be coming back along with Pearce. Presley could impact the team as well. If we trade Maholm how do we benefit? The pitching should regress or it could get better. Look at all the complete games. I think it will take a step back but the bats will take a step forward.
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 11:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Alright
So basically what I was trying to clarify is you think the current team as it stands this second is somewhere between 10 to 15 wins better than I do. That’s a fair opinion, but I just don’t buy it.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 2, 2011 6:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I understand
But maybe all the losing seasons you lose hope. Maholm could easily have the same record or better than Correia. Morton gave us how many losses last year? The team has improved on defense and pitching you can’t shy away from that. So saying we can win at least 10 more games this year is not crazy at all. Very realistic and with some luck and timely hitting 500 is achievable.
by Joey Mooney on Jun 2, 2011 8:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We won 57 games last year
I am the one calling for a 10 game increase. You are correct, that is not crazy.
You are calling for a 20 to 25 game increase.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 2, 2011 10:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also its not about losing hope at all.
My hope has never been higher in 18 seasons, I’m fully behind Huntington and one of if not the biggest supporter he has on this website. I’m just being realistic about expectations from a team that won 57 games in 2010.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 2, 2011 10:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yet, we are halfway to our win total from last season with basically the same team
how do we explain this?
This is a far different team than June 1, 2010. Way better. Now the new guys aren’t rooks and they aren’t starting in the middle of a lost season
Sophomore Slumps
Pirates are known for great call ups then whatever happened to those guys… Pedro had the slump this year and Tabata been streaky. This team will surprise people on the field and on paper by end of the season.
by Joey Mooney on Jun 2, 2011 2:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is an absurd statement.
I’m at work so I don’t have the rosters in front of me but I bet we had at minimum 25 percent roster turn over.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 2, 2011 3:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we stunk the whole year, my friend... let me go down the list of players whom are still featured players on this years bucs
walker, cedeno, alvarez, doumit, snyder, tabata, mccutchen, jones, morton, mcdonald, maholm, karstens, hanrahan, meed, dcutch…
most of the above guys are “starters” this year and last… our record after june1st 2010 was pitiful, with these same guys…
You named 15 guys.
If your list is correct, thats 40% roster turn over. Doesn’t seem like the same team to me.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
im talking about regular contributors, not backups and fillins...
say what you want, but my list is accurate and those same guys are now WINNING…
other than Duke and Milledge, no one else got alot of playing time after June 1st of last season.
once again, im not counting the crosbys, the churchs, the iwamuras, etc… my list above played alot last season and are doing the same this year, just doing it alot better
This snideness would be so much more convincing
if the team’s FIP and xFIP weren’t better than their ERA.
This makes no sense.
The ERA is currently the lowest of the three.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I think it's SP vs. RP?
The starters have better ERA than FIP and xFIP; the team has better FIP and xFIP. Since you said “pitching” not “starting pitching”, that’s what I went with.
Monkey off the back of this franchise
No doubt the schedule will be increasing in difficulty, and there are two unknowns which have yet to be determined. First, will the pitching continue to be vastly improved from 2010? Second, will the hitting come around, and improve over last season?
If the answer is yes to both those questions before the trading deadline, that means the club will still be hovering around the .500 mark. At that point, I would hope there wouldn’t be any trades for long term purposes. The organization just has to go for it, to have a realistic chance to end this horrible losing streak, is far beyond what anyone could have thought for this team entering this season.
If you can get a legit prospects like a Jesus Montero
Who can step in right away and become a 3-5 hitter in your lineup, you have to do it! The Pirates need to go get a bat if they want to compete this year, the pitching has been unbelievable. Actually good enough to were they should be well over 500.
The Pirates pitching is good enough for the playoffs.
8th best in Majors with 3.46 ERA
Number 1 in MLB for the last 30 days (24 games) 2.58 ERA way ahead of any MLB team (2nd M’s with 2.81 ERA),
Results: 12 wins 12 Losses
We’re improving from last year, no doubt but if we look at the facts objectively, a 500 results is an insult to any #1 pitching staff in the Majors.
The M’s with a 2.81 ERA are 15-10 during the same period, they’ve got a quite lame offense, far worse than ours on the paper, but they seem to hit the ball when it matters, clutch hits… they’re now back in playoffs contention… Yes, they want to win & to win may just solves everything.
Sooner or later, pitchers will be upset, tired or under pressure to not having a decent run support. Bats will be woken up when pitching will start to struggle perhaps.
Sorry to not be very optimistic, but we could’ve had a way better record if only we had a minimum of offensive consistency. With some talents like Cutch, Tabs, GJF, NFW & Pedro I don’t get it.
"I'm gonna go get the papers, get the papers." - Jimmy Two Times
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jun 1, 2011 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
“Sorry to not be very optimistic, but we could’ve had a way better record if only we had a minimum of offensive consistency. With some talents like Cutch, Tabs, GJF, NFW & Pedro I don’t get it.”
I get it. Overbay, Cedeno, and Alvarez/Wood have been bottom-5 hitters at their position, while only McCutchen has been top 5 for his position. Three bottom-5 hitters is a huge amount of lineup drag.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 1, 2011 4:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Compete
It doesn’t seem to be the consensus, but I think there is ample room to compete in this division.
The NL Central is arguably the weakest division in baseball, and we’re within 6 1/2 on June 1st. The team is flirting with .500, and has some significant injuries.
But Clint Hurdle has shown that the team has a bit of a different personality this year.
I think (with some added help) this team can compete, and it will only help them down the line.
We should not give up (no pun intended) so easily, and we should not think that heaven lies ahead in 2015.
We have thought that too many times in the past eighteen years.
The pitching has been there, and I think if we could add a bat or two, we can make some headway.
Let’s keep competing, see who might be available next month and get in this thing for a change.
That’s the way it should be done when a division is there for the taking.
If Alvarez or Tabata had hit a lick so far this year, the Pirates would have three or four more wins. I like the odds of both of them coming around, and with them, so should the offense.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
Tabata
If not for him we could have 3 or 4 more losses too. I remember his first month of baseball…
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 4:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Tabata's actually having a good year at the plate
Thanks to all the walks, he has a very good .361 OBP.
Good point. Tabata fell off pretty hard for a long time, but he’s been better lately. He hasn’t shown power in over a month, though, and his defense hasn’t been what I hoped.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Jun 1, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Tabata is around 8th in left fielder WRC+. Not too bad really. Maybe I expected more, but that’s still above-average hitting.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 1, 2011 5:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
109 wRC+ and .335 wOBA is not too bad.
His .360 OBP is better than last year. He has dramatically improved his walk rate, which has also increased his K% some, but not as much as his walk rate has improved. Hopefully as he matures, his K% will drop down.
Hanrahan can help in 2012-2013, so I dont really want to trade him unless for an elite package.
A Hanny extension might be a good investment if he finishes the season with strong numbers. Top closers are taken for granted, until you have a lousy one.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 1, 2011 5:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
ANY closer generally extracts more than he’s worth on the trade deadline market (see Dotel, Octavio). So if NH can find a top-notch package for Hanny, do it, and continue the cobbling that the Pirates and Rays have shown can be a very successful way to build a bullpen.
All in all, I’d like to see us keep Hanrahan and Maholm (especially Maholm), but if the Bucs are 5 games under come July 20 or so, and there’s a great deal on the table, the Pirates have to make the move, methinks.
Unless the Pirates think that they can exercise the buyout and then get Maholm to sign for less than the nearly $10M he’s due next season, he will be traded.
I don’t see the Pirates paying him $10M next season, and he isn’t ranked high enough to bring any compensation picks back to the Pirates in any case.
This is a good point
I really think he’s been pitching great, but it’s much more likely that they sale the Maholm (who will then go 8-3 with the Yankees down the stretch, causing riots). Then call up Lincoln and go Correia-Morton-McDonald-Karstens-Lincoln. Odorf is the wild card but he looks slated for the Pen or Karstens spot. Rudy doesnt seem ready
I wouldn't mind seeing Maholm extended
2/$16 or 3/$22, something like that. The Pirates don’t dare open next season with $25M payroll, the union will be all over them. They have to spend money somewhere and Maholm seems like a decent value.
Some of that money...
will be spent on Cutch.
No way Maholm accepts $8M a year unless he completely tanks from here on out.
Absolutely no way.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
To further that point, Maholm has no incentive to sign for less than $10M per year.
Pitchers get overpaid, and even if he was theoretically only a 2.0 WAR guy $10M alone is fair value on the FA market. If he keeps this up, he would get more than that in free agency for a number of years that we could not be comfortable with.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Eh
I don’t think Maholm is necessarily a $10M per year guy. He’s comparable to Jake Westbrook, who signed for 2/$16M last year. Ted Lilly got 3/$33M, but he’s a significantly better pitcher than Maholm.
Maybe if he pitches crazy good the rest of this year and the Pirates decline his option he gets a Lilly type deal, but if he goes back to being Paul Maholm, he’s looking at something like Westbrook got, IMO.
Doubtful
Westbrook is 5 years old roughly, so you have a lot bigger age concern with him. Maholm can easily get more than two years in free agency.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Who else will be a FA?
Worth got overpaid simply from lack of free agency. Im not sure what other pitchers will compete with Maholm. The guy is a solid 3 or 4 guy in any rotation.
by Joey Mooney on Jun 1, 2011 11:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it's going to be a question of years, not dollars with Maholm.
The Pirates are not going to get him at 1 year/$8M if he keeps pitching like this.. But they could get 2 years/16M or 3 years/22M. Honestly, if they think he can keep this up another year, they will likely pick up the option.
I have a real hard time believing he accepts less than 3 years
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jun 2, 2011 7:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I have a hard time believing any team would give Maholm more than 3 years.
That’s just not happening. The only guys that get 4+ years are far above average players.
Csn somebody clarify this
In most of the conversations about Maholm, someone mention compensation picks. IIRC, when we buy him out, he becomes a free agent and we don’t have the opportunity to offer arb to him. If we can’t offer him arb, we can’t get comp pics. Am I wrong on this?
Also, I think keeping him for $10m next year isn’t the worst idea. If he give us a performance 3/4 as good as this year, he’ll be worth every penny.
by Wizard of Woz on Jun 2, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
i cant argue that
this has been the best pitching stretch of Maholm’s career. hes attacking the RH hitters and keeping the lefties off balance.
Maholm...
is going to have to pitch “lights out” in the 2nd half to move up the list to even get one compensation pick. So…declining the option means that he could walk away with the Pirates getting nothing in return…except the money savings for next season.
Maholm is a tough sell
if he wants more than three years at more than $24. That is where I’d draw the line.
Maholm
I think he is a guy who would accept a longer contract with less a year he seems to like it there. So maybe even 4 years for 7 million a year he could bite. As long as there is other free agent pitchers.
by Joey Mooney on Jun 2, 2011 2:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
well how about this
Correia, Morton, McDonald make up 3/5 of 2012 rotation. Now choose the other 2 between Karstens, Ohlie, Maholm, Lincoln, Wilson, Owens, 2011 FAs….
my opinion is we put Lincoln and Owens in from the get go next year and keep Karstens as a long relief guy, I wouldnt mind keeping Maholm though if he comes at a lower cost.
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Answers to 2011 Season
They were answered in March…this is still going to be a losing team. So far the losing has not been as bad as in years past, but losing is still losing.
Yes, because
… playing exciting, competitive baseball, staying within a few games of .500 throughout the season and ending the year at 78-84 is really no different than going 57-105.
I guess that 29 teams in MLB are Losers because they won’t win the World Series this year. Losing is still losing.
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