Mets 7, Pirates 0: Bucs' Offense Flatlines Again
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 12, 2011 4:46 PM EDT
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PrintThe only really nice thing one can say about this one is that Kevin Correia pitched pretty well before the wheels finally came off in the eighth. He actually took a perfect game into the fifth and gutted it out for a really long time when it looked like the Bucs' offense had no prayer of scoring. Good for him, and good for the Pirates' front office for acquiring him.
There were a couple of controversial calls that ended up probably not mattering - with a scoreless game in the seventh, Jason Bay hit a sacrifice fly with one out and runners on first and third. The Pirates eventually appealed ... something and got Angel Pagan out at either second or first after the lead run came home to score. What I thought happened was that Pagan went past second base but then did not tag second on his way back to first. The umpires initially took the run off the board, then put it back on again.
Then in the bottom of the inning, Lyle Overbay hit a fly ball to deep center, and Pagan appeared to make the catch at the wall. It sounded like it might have been a trap, but it was impossible to tell from the replay. Overbay was called out.
Beyond that ... the Pirates made Chris Capuano look like Steve Carlton today. And they ended up giving up seven runs, so it's hard to complain much about either of the calls. The first one was just weird, and the umpires' call on the second one was entirely reasonable given the facts available. Clint Hurdle was eventually thrown out of the game for arguing about the ball at the wall, but not even he seemed too up in arms about either call.
The broader problem was that their lineup consisted of Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and then one automatic out after another. The Pirates simply will not score much with a lineup that includes Matt Diaz, Lyle Overbay, Brandon Wood, Ronny Cedeno, and Dusty Brown. (Pat at WHYGAVS was ranting about Diaz on Twitter all afternoon.) Near the end of the game, Diaz was thrown out, apparently for yelling at the umpires from the bench. That made me laugh. Earlier he had been screaming at the home-plate umpire about a strike call that the replay showed was, in fact, a strike. But even if it weren't, was there anyone in that stadium besides Diaz who thought he would get a hit if given an additional chance?
At this point, the Pirates need to do something. Alex Presley, Chase D'Arnaud and Eric Fryer aren't world-beaters, but the Pirates need to give them the chance to show they can do something in the majors, as opposed to what the current group is doing, which is waving at junk out of the strike zone all the time and hitting weak grounders. It doesn't even matter that someone like Presley isn't really an ideal fit for the roster, since he's left-handed - Diaz is failing so thoroughly to do his job as the right-handed side of a platoon that he probably shouldn't be asked to do it anymore. At this point, I would be much more interested in seeing Presley try to hit lefties than seeing Diaz fail to do it.
I understand there have been a bunch of injuries. But it's not as if the Pirates lack semi-viable alternatives to some of the automatic outs currently clogging their lineup and bench. And some of those automatic outs are in the lineup not because of injuries, but because they were the Pirates' Plan A from the beginning of the season. And yeah, I'm upset about it. That game was nearly unwatchable.
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so basically we're saying get rid of Diaz, Jones and Overbay after 60 games...
cant say i agree with all of that, but i understand the frustration
I’d get rid of Diaz. Jones might be too good to dump completely. I’d love to get rid of Overbay, but I’m not sure who I’d want to take his place.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 12, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
overreacting
I understand that you’re frustrated, but you’re overreacting. Diaz barely has 100 PA this year. Overbay’s been bad, but not any worse than Walker over the last couple months. This just isn’t a team that’s going to score runs with Alvarez injured/ineffective. Add in the Pearce, Snyder, and Doumit injuries and it’s just a bad offense. That sucks, but it’s no reason to call for the release of the guys we have an emotional distaste for.
Walker, by the way, is hitting roughly .220/.290/.380 in May and June and he doesn’t exactly have a long history of being a good hitter. I wonder why he’s not listed among the “automatic outs” in this lineup.
You probably could make a case for Walker being among the “automatic outs,” although, for now, his overall numbers are fine.
I don’t think it requires any sort of emotional distaste to think Diaz shouldn’t be on the team. Not only are his numbers awful, he looks clueless up there, and he’s in his mid-30s and serves no particular organizational purpose if he isn’t hitting. At least with Walker (if Walker were anywhere near as bad as Diaz, which he isn’t), you could say that he’s young and he needs to be out there learning.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 12, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Charlie’s point about Diaz not serving an organizational purpose. I would extend that to Overbay and Jones, too. Team should focus on players younger than 27.
Diaz
Diaz’s organizational purpose is to platoon with Garrett Jones this year and next. That is a legitimate purpose, and although he isn’t hitting well right now there’s not really anything to suggest it’s a long-term problem rather than a slump. In the long-term, yes, they need younger guys, but he’s a good fit for the roster right now.
I disagree 100%. He’s a waste of a badly needed spot on the 40 man and he is preventing us seeing what we have with players like Presley who actually are a part of the future. It’s not personal, I was hoping he would do better but now it’s time to cut bait. The best case scenario is that we find away to trade him for a bag of balls even if we eat salary.
Yinzers uber alles
nonsense
Who do we need his 40-man spot for? Presley’s already on the 40-man. If you like Fryer, he would replace Brown or Toregas, not Diaz. d’Arnaud would take Ciriaco’s spot on the 25-man and I’d rather he replace a guy like Leroux on the 40.
Presley is not a part of the Pirates’ future other than as a 4th outfielder. I guess you could argue that he’s no worse than Diaz in that respect, but at least Diaz, as a RHH, fits the roster better.
The best-case scenario is that Diaz gets out of his slump and starts hitting RHP. Trading Diaz for salary relief is the second-worst-case scenario, not the best.
Presley...
Presley is not a part of the Pirates’ future other than as a 4th outfielder.
That may be true. But he could also come up and surprise in a Nate McLouth way and perform better than expected for a year and a half until someone like Marte is ready. At the point Presley may bring back a decent return in a trade. All of the arguing about Presley is probably moot since I assume he will come up during interleague play. I just hope he gets some playing time so we can determine if he can carry some of his AAA success to the majors.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
The thing about McLouth
Is that although he played above his tools, he handled AA and AAA at ages 22 and 23, whereas Presley turns 26 next month. Big difference between an undersized 22 year old tearing AA like McLouth did and an undersized 24 year old like Presley doing the same.
If Presley were a couple years younger, I’d be kind of excited about him but as it is, not so much.
Anyway, I do expect him to get some opportunities with the Pirates this year and I hope he makes he the most of them even though I don’t expect much.
Presley hit much better at both AA and AAA than McLouth did, however.
I don’t really disagree that Presley is probably a fourth outfielder at best. But he might be more – we really don’t know. We know Diaz isn’t more than a fourth outfielder at this point, and he appears to be considerably less than that.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jun 12, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Why does Diaz appear to be less than a fourth outfielder? I don’t understand your hatred for him. He has performed poorly in a small sample so far this year. That doesn’t mean he sucks. He is what he’s always been: a limited player who hits LHP well.
That's not really hatred.
He’s 4th in that he’s the weak half of a platoon and usually (or used to be) the first guy to start when one of the other three weren’t in the lineup.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
He has also played well below his reputation defensively as well…when a player in his 30s starts to suck in both aspects of the game he is either dogging it, toast, or most likely both.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jun 12, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He has also played well below his reputation defensively as well…
Who thought Diaz was going to be a good defender? He ’s spent the vast majority of his career in LF.
There are two types of guys who end up in LF long-term: Little waterbugs who don’t have the arm for center, and lumbering moose types. Diaz ain’t a waterbug, which really only leaves one option…
people on here dislike Diaz and Overbay and even Correia simply because of their ages
that they are somehow blocking young talent. presley is not that young, and the problem with him is that he may end up like mclouth after all.
yeah, people will chime in about Overbay being Overpaid, which is technically correct since every damn player is overpaid in professional sports. but teams cant win without some veteran players. and since neither Diaz NOR overbay are focal points on our offense, i cant see anyone putting any blame onto them.
if youre going to blame anyone, you have more logical choices than the RF and 1Bman du jour
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
No
People dislike Overbay because he is posting both a negative oWAR and a negative dWAR on the season.
Although, to be fair, he has been better than Matt Diaz in both aspects of the game.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jun 12, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I dislike Diaz because he is stinky.
I don’t really dislike Uberbay all that much.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 13, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Who do we need his 40-man spot for?
San Diego just put Poreda on waivers. I’d kind of like to take a look at his arm, see if we can get him throwing strikes again.
I was thinking the same thing...
he was pretty interesting a couple of years ago. Maybe Searage can work some magic.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
In fairness...
a lot of people didn’t think Overbay should be on the team to begin with. However, he is not even the biggest problem right now. The point is that the offense is struggling. The Pirates aren’t getting production out of RF or 1B and we have a guy in Indy who has been tearing up AAA for the better part of a year now. I’d bring Presley up tomorrow, send both Jones and Diaz to the bench and give Presley an extended look. And I’d realease Paul.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
anyone else notice that Walker's stats are nose diving fast?
his OPS is barely above Overbays, BTW….
yes, that was snarky… point being, 75% of the lineup is struggling to hit. Overbay had a good day today, hit the ball hard twice and walked. yet we need to get rid of him???
diaz and jones have struggled… and we should bring up Presley now? just because hes still killing it in AAA? we dont let our guys work through their slumps???
exactly
The offense sucks, but I’m hearing/reading a lot of overreactions. I’m fine with giving Presley a try, but anyone who thinks he’s a better option than a Jones/Diaz platoon is fooling themselves about the relative skill levels of those guys.
im fine with Presley getting a shot too
but for the right reasons. Iwamura was benched because he was pitifully awful last season. Jones/Diaz/Overbay have NOT been awful. they have been anywhere from poor to “meh”… Aki was replaced by a guy in AAA.
now if Jones and/or Diaz continue to disappoint, i can see bringing up Presley to get a couple weeks of starts, especially with the interleague coming up. once interleague ends, if Presley deserves to stick, then Jones needs to go… why? because Paul has shown me that hes a good option to have as a backup outfielder. Jones? either he starts or he has no real value at all.
I'm not so sure I'm fooling myself...
to think that Presley might be more useful than Jones. Jones has looked terrible for the better part of two years now. Yes he gets on some hot streaks but if Hurdle hadn’t sat him when he did his wOBA might be below .300 right now. Presley’s on base skills are lacking but so are Diaz’s. When you factor in Presley’s speed and defense I think he could be a more useful player than of the three. I’m not suggesting releasing either of those guys or never playing them again but right now they aren’t getting it done.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Jones
Jones has a 111 wRC+ this year. Against RHP it’s 122. You need to reexamine your opinion about Jones, who has most certainly not been “slumping for TWO years now” as you put it below.
Jones got off to a really hot start...
and has struggled to make solid contact for a good portion of the season. As I also stated below, I did overstate Jones’ struggles. He has a career wRC+ of 107 and 111 this year which is ok for a platoon player I guess. I, unlike you, am not 100% sure that Presley couldn’t do better.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Yeah and if Walker were a 30 something veteran...
with a younger more interesting player pushing him in AAA I might say the same thing. And I didn’t say get rid of Overbay. I said get rid of Paul. Ask yourself this too, how many times this season have we said “Overbay hit the ball hard today looks like he’s coming out of it?” Feels like it’s been quite a while. But again my argument right now is RF because we have a youthful option in AAA.
diaz and jones have struggled… and we should bring up Presley now? just because hes still killing it in AAA? we dont let our guys work through their slumps???
Jones has been slumping for TWO years now. How much time are you willing to give the guy? Diaz was a veteran platoon player who is not hitting anthing let alone lefties. So yes, to answer your question, the Pirates should bring up Presley now and sit Jones and Diaz. Presley has been tearing up AAA for over a year now and we are keeping him down there for those two guys? Really? It’s not like they are youngish players with a ton of upside sheesh. I know you believe not everyone should be a star but the amoung to sub par performance you are willing to put up with is a little mindbottling. If Pressley were 6’1" instead of 5’9" I wonder how many opinions would be different right now.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Not that I have a problem with giving Presley some PT
But his minor league hitting record is nealy identical to XPaul’s and Presley doesn’t have the arm to play RF. By all means give him a shot – nothing to lose at this point – but there’s no reason to believe Presley is any better than XP. We can hope, I guess.
Agreed...
but Indy is primarly a pitcher’s park from what I understand while Paul has come up through many favorable hitting environments in the Dodgers organization. I think Presley does have better extra base potential but you are right to point out the arm. I did neglect that and Paul has a good one so that definitely is something that should be factored in. This may be a case of shiny new toy syndrome but I won’t lose any sleep if one of Diaz, Paul or Jones is not on the roster tomorrow.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Paul
For whatever reason, he’s been a windmill machine in the Majors at the plate. He’s toast vs. MLB pitching, IMO. Presley may have an equally big issue with contact, but maybe he won’t. Presley certainly isn’t can’t miss. But Paul is horrible at bat. Worst you can do is go sideways, IMO.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 12, 2011 6:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
or John Bowker
Bowker’s hitting .331/.373/.475 at Indy. Maybe we should cut Garrett Jones and make John Bowker our starting RF.
Bowker has a big ole hole in his swing...
which I’m sure you know. While I did exaggerate Jones slumping for two years he has struggled to make solid contact for the better part of two years. This season he has a nice .337 wOBA (which is his career wOBA) while facing mainly righties but that is down almost 30-40 points from his hot start. With the way he was swinging I truly believe it would be even lower right now if Hurdle hadn’t decided to bench him in favor of Diaz/Paul. The only thing different between Jones this year and last year is that he is drawing more walks (which has boosted his wOBA) and the fact that he is primarily facing righties; though his K% is up 6%. His BABIP, LD%, ISO and Slg% are almost identical. Jones had an 8% walk rate last year in a full season so I’m not sure I’m ready to buy on the 14% walk rate he has so far this year. I don’t think the Pirates should cut Jones or Diaz but I do think they should cut Paul and birng up Presley while giving him a good look.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Bowker has a big ole hole in his swing…
Yes, he does. And Presley is an undersized, slap-hitting 4th outfielder. The only reason you believe the former but not the latter is because you’ve recently seen Bowker fail at the ML level. My point is that Presley is not good just because he’s hitting in AAA. He’s just not a starting-caliber corner outfielder.
I’m not sure what to make of your parsing of Jones’ stats. He’s a well-above-average hitter against RHP, and that’s what we need him to do. His 122 wRC+ is almost identical to his career number (125). There’s nothing wrong with him. He’s certainly better than Presley.
I have no problem with bringing up Presley. I don’t think he’s as good as Paul, but Paul’s not that great either so who cares. And if they want to play him in RF while Jones/Diaz DH in interleague play, that’s fine too. But that’s as far as it should go.
This is a lot like Josh Harrison, by the way. I don’t remember anyone clamoring for Harrison to get called up like this, but I do remember a lot of people claiming, in the last year or so, that Harrison was a real prospect because “all he does is hit,” even though realists cautioned that a no-defense, no-power, no-patience hitter wouldn’t have much success in the big leagues. And after a very brief love affair, we’re now seeing that “all he does is hit” guys in the minors are generally unsuccessful in the bigs unless they have real ML skills.
Wow!
Now who’s exagerrating? Once again, Presley has a .407 wOBA and .515 slg% this season. If that’s your definition of slap hitting that I guess we can stop debating this. The year Jones went on his tear he had a .371 wOBA in Indy with a .503 slg%. Before that season Jones never slugged above .500 in AAA. Is Jones a slap hitter? I guess only HR’s count then.
The only reason you believe the former but not the latter is because you’ve recently seen Bowker fail at the ML level. My point is that Presley is not good just because he’s hitting in AAA. He’s just not a starting-caliber corner outfielder.
Yes to the first part. Based on Bowker’s minor league stats there was no way for me to know he wouldn’t hit in the majors until he actually, you know, didn’t hit in the majors. And to the 2nd part of that I’m not sure how you can conclude Presley’s ceiling from 25 ML plate appearances. It would seem to me that you have drawn that conclusion based on old scouting reports and the fact that Presley is 5’9". If Presley was able to succeed in the majors it wouldn’t be the first time a player outperformed his scouting reports.
I’m not sure what to make of your parsing of Jones’ stats. He’s a well-above-average hitter against RHP, and that’s what we need him to do. His 122 wRC+ is almost identical to his career number (125). There’s nothing wrong with him. He’s certainly better than Presley.
I didn’t parse his stats. I used his career numbers and his numbers this season. Yeah he’s doing well against righties but his season wRC+ is 111 and his career is 107 so apparently the Pirates need him to hit lefties a little too.
He’s certainly better than Presley.
Until he gets an opportunity I can’t agree or disagree with you. I simply won’t penalize a guy for being 5’9".
This is a lot like Josh Harrison, by the way. I don’t remember anyone clamoring for Harrison to get called up like this, but I do remember a lot of people claiming, in the last year or so, that Harrison was a real prospect because "all he does is hit," even though realists cautioned that a no-defense, no-power, no-patience hitter wouldn’t have much success in the big leagues.
Harrison hasn’t come close to producing like Presley at the upper levels of the minors. He also has the reputation as a poor defender. No soup for you.
As I stated elsewhere, I think he is better than Paul but even he’s not, Paul isn’t anything that will be missed as you point out. I think Pressley should be called up for interleague play and get some regular at bats and if he isn’t overmatched he should stay on the roster over Paul. If he hits himself into more playing time, or Jones hits himself out of it, than Presley should get a longer look.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
look
The scouting reports that say Presley’s not that good aren’t that old.
What I’m saying is that you can’t judge prospects entirely by stats. You seem committed to doing so, so I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
Agreed, old should be deleted from my post...
I guess what I meant to say was that Presley has gone down to Indy and worked on everything Huntington and Stark said he needed to work on. Given that, and his performance this year, I wonder if the reports would change a little bit.
What I’m saying is that you can’t judge prospects entirely by stats.
I completely agree. Though I do think stats at the upper level of the minors are pretty valuable and can be strong indicators of ML performance. I believe in scouting; especially for drafting prospects. But I also value performance in AA and AAA more than you do. Like I said elsewhere, if the Pirates had a young player the caliber of Tabata performing at Tabata’s or Jones’ level I wouldn’t be having this debate with you.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
okay
But if Presley fails in the majors will you change your opinion about minor league stats vs. scouting? Maybe you can become my ally next year when we’re having this argument about, say, Aaron Pribanic.
Heh...
No I probably won’t change my opinion. I know I’ve given the imrpession that I don’t value scouting reports but that’s not the case. I do value them but I am willing to make exceptions to those reports under a few conditions: 1) when a player is tearing up the upper levels of the minors and 2) that player isn’t blocked by young high-end talent counted on to be a long-term fixture. I’m speaking mainly of former A – B grade prospects who generally have success in the minors as well. I used the scouting report argument to defend Huntington’s decision to not protect Adcock for example. There’s probably more exceptions that I haven’t mentioned but I’ve already spent more time arguing for Alex Presley than I ever thought I would so I’m gonna leave it at two. And you are right, it looks like this debate will take off again for some when Pribanic hits AAA. Though I will probably be on your side in that one.
And yes, this post was almost the same as the one you replied. #RedundancyIsFun!
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
ronny cedeno had a .357 batting average with over 600 ABs in AAA.
end of argument
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
I covered the “not all players who have success in the minors have success in the majors” argument with epoc in great length. Basically what it boils down to is if you are not a touted prospect you shouldn’t get a shot in the majors. If you’re comfortable with that than fine. Time will tell if you and epoc are correct.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Basically what it boils down to is if you are not a touted prospect you shouldn’t get a shot in the majors.
That’s not what I’m saying at all. I have no problem with Presley getting a shot. I just don’t think it should be as a starter for us, because the Jones/Diaz platoon is better. As I said before, if they’d like to use Presley in RF while Jones/Diaz DH during interleague play, I’m fine with it. If they want to DFA Paul and give Presley the 5th outfielder spot, I’m fine with that too. By no means do I think that Presley shouldn’t get a shot at some point. I just don’t think he should be given a starting job.
Well hell we wasted a lot of time over nothing then...
I don’t think he should be handed a job either. I think he should get some regular at bats during interleague and if he looks like he can handle ML pitching he should stay on the roster. If he keeps hitting and Jones doesn’t then Presley should get an everyday look for a while. Basically, I’d like to see him used how Hurdle has used Paul.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
The Pirates aren’t getting production out of RF or 1B and we have a guy in Indy who has been tearing up AAA for the better part of a year now. I’d bring Presley up tomorrow, send both Jones and Diaz to the bench and give Presley an extended look.
It sure sounds like you’re saying that Presley should be handed a job. But I accept that you’ve changed your position.
I changed my stance some...
after you correctly pointed out that I was overly critical of Jones. I thought I had stated that somewhere later but I’ve lost track of the posts. Either way, my fault for not being more clear.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I covered the "not all players who have success in the minors have success in the majors" argument with epoc in great length.
Not all players who have success in the majors continue to have success in the majors, either. That’s because they’re people, rather than just random number generators.
The only real difference is that when a “proven” guy hits like crap for a month, he’s “in a slump”, and when an “un-proven” guy does it, he’s a “failure”.
I want to see
Tabata lf
Presley rf
Cutch cf
Walker 2b
Overbay 1b
D’arnaud ss
Fryer c
Harrison 3b
Who do you want for DH?
Upcoming interleague play is a factor also. Paul, Jones, or Diaz?
by Central*Scrutinizer on Jun 12, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
doesn't really matter...
Hurdle will probably use matchups so I’d expect to see them all get starts.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
It doesn't matter what you think!
Sorry, I can’t help myself. Switch Tabata and Presley in the field too.
So knock off Ciriaco and bring up Presley, Fryer for either catcher
Who do you move to make a place for Chase? Wood? Just cut Diaz and eat the money? Giving him a two year contract is certainly a giant negative when evaluating the front office’s ability to judge major league talent.
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
I see whut you did thar.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 12, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yet the pitching we signed is perfectly fine — what is it, our front office can’t judge platoon hitters, but pitchers of any kind are always steals?
Thank you Ned Colletti.
In this case...
it’s a talent evaluation miss with Jones. He wasn’t even good against lefties last year. Diaz is just a case of bad luck imo. The guy has mashed lefties his entire career but now he’s a Pirate and the baseball gods have foresaken us.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Is Hurdle working with Diaz?
Part of the aggravation is watching his LaRochian nonchalant plate approach and the oversized bat just laying there on his shoulder.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Jun 12, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Diaz is in his 30's.
I’m sure Hurdle is hesitant to change his approach at this point. If he saw a mechanical flaw, something different in his swing that he normally doesn’t have, I’m sure Hurdle would correct it. Other than that, I think he leaves him alone.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Diaz’ contract is a “spend some money so MLB and the union don’t yell at us” contract. It has no reflection on their ability to judge talent.
I don't think that's it...
I think Huntington brought him in because he thought he would perform better in the weak half of a platoon than Milledge would. Diaz is struggling right now but you just can’t discount the fact that he has mashed lefties throughout his career. It was a completely justifiable acquisition. I don’t, however, think that Presley should be left in AAA because Hurdle is having trouble finding at bats for the three OF’s he has now.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Barry is definately wrong about Diaz, and you may be wrong about Presley
its fairly obvious that they want Jones’ power to play in this lineup and they are hoping he can work out of his slump. Presley is doing extremely well in AAA, granted, but many many players have done the exact same damn thing as he…
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
And those players you speak...
of all got shots in the majors didn’t they? If they hadn’t you would never know that they failed. So yeah I could be wrong but so could you.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
There is no reason at all...
for Presley to still be in the minors. He doesn’t even have a platoon split so he fits fine on the roster imo. The mistake the Pirates made is thinking Xavier Paul is more than he is. He was fine pick and a decent 4th or 5th OF but he is not someone who should be blocking Presley. Presley may not be a “world beater” in that he has no hype because he came on late but it’s getting really hard to ignore a plus .900 OPS in AAA with solid above average defense and 14 SB’s. Bring the guy up already and give him some starts. But I suppose Jones hits yesterday and today will fool everyone into thinking he’s finally put it together and we’ll have to put up with him getting more at bats. Remember when everyone was raving about Cedeno’s leg kick? Don’t look know but he’s hitting around .220. I’m not suggesting cutting all three of Jones, Diaz and Paul but one of them should go.
I’d like to see D’Arnaud spend some more time in AAA but Presley is ready. #FreeAlexPresley
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Presley is not any better than Paul, especially when you consider defense. All the people who are raving about #FreeAlexPresley now will be bitching about him a week after he’s called up.
I think he is better than Paul.
He has been much better defensively this year and has some extrabase power that I don’t see in Paul. You may be right in that he might fail but you could say that about anyone. The only thing I don’t like about him is his inability to take walks but other than that I think he could contribute. And the fact of the matter is that he is being blocked by no one of importance. And if he comes up and fails than so what, the team is no worse off. I just don’ think Paul is good enough to warrant not finding out what Presley can do. Seems kind of silly to me.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Paul had XBH power in the minors, too
Seriously, look at their MiLB hitting records side by side. It’s uncanny.
John Bowker
Bowker has hit better than Presley even at Indy over the last two years. AAA stats don’t automatically translate to the ML level. Presley doesn’t have the skills to be a ML corner outfielder. He’s absolutely not better than a Jones/Diaz platoon, and he’s not better than Paul as a fifth outfielder, because his D isn’t as good.
Bowker doesnt even have the skills to be a defensive replacement in the OF
which is why he was DFAd in the first place. he passed easily through waivers, remember? Presley, however, will at least provide a decent glove.
if we want a left hander who pulled every single pitch, then we would bring up Bowker… wait a minute, we already have one… JONES.
dude
My John Bowker posts are sarcastic attempts to get everyone to realize that old minor league players are not necessarily awesome just because they can hit in AAA. I’m on your side here.
Rule #1 about the internet
Sarcasm doesn’t translate well on message boards.
Actually he hasn't outhit Presley this year...
last year he did but this year Presley is carrying a .407 wOBA and Bowker has a .371 wOBA. I know you are being sarcastic but this is a weak argument. You’ve conveniently neglected to mention that Bowker hasn’t hit ML off speed stuff and has over 600 plate appearances in the majors to Presley’s 25. Now Presley may not perform any better than Bowker or Paul or Jones but none of those guys have actually taken advantage of their opportunity. If Presley doesn’t deserve a look after posting wOBA’s of .414 in AA (2010), .348 in AAA (2010) and .407 in AAA (2011) what exactly will it take?
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
what it will take
is Presley becoming a completely different player – one who projects to be a good major leaguer.
You continue to be very wrong about Jones, who absolutely has taken advantage of his ML opportunities and posted a 125 wRC+ against RHP in his career.
The reason I didn’t mention Bowker’s failures at the ML level is because (I thought) it was too obvious to mention. My whole point is that guys who can hit at AAA can’t necessarily hit in the majors. Bowker should prove that. Or Josh Harrison. Or Steve Pearce. Or any of the thousands of AAAA guys like them. Presley does not project as a starting-caliber ML corner outfielder, despite his nice numbers in the minor leagues.
If it was too obvious to mention...
you wouldn’t have brought Bowker up at all because that makes it a worthless example. I have no idea what kind of hitter Harrison will be and I’m not ready to put Pearce in the same category of hitter as Bowker. Are you positive in saying that Presley will struggle to hit major league off-speed stuff or ML pitchign in general? And yeah you can use Jones career stats neglecting to mention that they are largely driven by an outstanding 2009 which he is unlikely to repeat. Jones has a 111 wRC+ this season and a career 107. My guess is this is the player Jones truly is. Which to say is not bad in a part time role as he has been used. Unlike you though, I’m not 100% sure that Presley couldn’t do better if given an opportunity to do so.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
you misunderstand
It’s not clear what you’re understanding of the Bowker example is, but if you think it’s a worthless example you obviously are not understanding it correctly. The point of the example is this: guys who can hit at AAA can’t necessarily hit in the majors. If they don’t profile as good ML players, they don’t deserve ML starting positions, no matter how good they hit in AAA.
Jones has a 122 wRC+ this year against RHP, which is nearly identical to his career wRC+ against RHP. This is not a case of one good half-season. They guy can legitimately hit RHP. If that’s the player Jones truly is, great. A guy who hits 20% better than league average against RHP is a valuable player.
I am 100% positive that Presley will struggle to hit ML pitching, yes. In fact, if you’d like, we can have a friendly wager. I bet that if Presley gets 500 PA in the majors over the next three years, his wRC+ will be lower than the 107 you seem intent on disparaging Jones for having. (Note that this is a horrible bet for me to make, since if Presley is as awful as I think he is there’s no way he’ll get 500 PA. So I’ll lose the bet if he’s good but I probably won’t win the bet if he’s bad. That’s how confident I am that Presley will not be a good major league hitter.)
The point of the example is this: guys who can hit at AAA can’t necessarily hit in the majors.
In this context I understand your point. I’m not saying Presley is guaranteed to have his success translate. I just think he deserves shot. It’s not as if he has Jason Heyward blocking him.
If they don’t profile as good ML players, they don’t deserve ML starting positions, no matter how good they hit in AAA.
This is where I disagree. Players outperform their scouting reports all the time. Nate McLouth is a good example and he brought back Charlie Morton. If the Pirates already had a young answer in RF I’d be more inclined to leaving him in Indy though I still think he is a better option in the bench than Paul.
Jones has a 122 wRC+ this year against RHP, which is nearly identical to his career wRC+ against RHP. This is not a case of one good half-season. They guy can legitimately hit RHP. If that’s the player Jones truly is, great. A guy who hits 20% better than league average against RHP is a valuable player.
Agreed. But once again since Jones has more than zero at bats against lefties as well he needs to do a better job against them. You can’t completely throw out his performance against lefties. And I have come off of the disparaging remarks against Jones. He has put up slightly better than average numbers this season. Last season he was below average but saw more time against lefties than he will this year. However, I’m not sure a 111 wRC+ is enough to not give Presley some time in the lineup to see what he’s got.
I suppose we are not going to get anywhere with this debate because I don’t think a player performing at Presley’s level should be written off based on his profile. You do. We aren’t going to agree on this. If Presley comes up and sucks up the joint I’ll gladly say you were right.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I bet that if Presley gets 500 PA in the majors over the next three years, his wRC+ will be lower than the 107 you seem intent on disparaging Jones for having.
In fairness to Slick, Presley would be a superior player to Jones if both put up a 107 OPS+, since Presley’s a better baserunner and defender. You might want to tweak the line a bit to reflect that.
Bowker has hit better than Presley even at Indy over the last two years.
No he has not. Last year yes, this year no.
He’s absolutely not better than a Jones/Diaz platoon
Probably not given Diaz’s track record but I think a Diaz/Presley could be better.
he’s not better than Paul as a fifth outfielder, because his D isn’t as good.
Paul has the defensive edge but I think Presley will hit better and I don’t think Paul has enough of a defensive edge to make up for it. So I don’t agree on this point.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
well shit...
I guess I believe that redundancy is an effective debating technique. I’ve been up and down in this thread so many times I don’t even know what post I’m responding to anymore. You are a lot quicker than I am. My bad.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
i say $#@% it...
just leave the roster the $#@% alone. none of us know what the hell we are talking about anyway
Seems like a waste of time hanging out here then
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
by CW on Jun 12, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's see
Brandon Wood, Ronny Cedeno, Matt Diaz, Garret Jones, Pedro Ciriaco, Dusty Brown, Wyatt Toreagas. What’s wrong with the offense? I’ll tell you…those seven players are, quite literally, seven of the top 20 worst players in MLB.
by bosten7 on Jun 12, 2011 5:14 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
jesus
Ciriaco has 3 ABs this year, but he’s part of the problem with this offense? He’s just a UT IF and pinch runner who never plays. People need to calm down.
That's exactly my point...
If he were more than awful…wouldn’t he be getting more AB’s? He’s not contributing because he’s not playing. He’s not playing because he isn’t good.
by bosten7 on Jun 12, 2011 5:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hes not playing because hes a backup infielder!!! hes there in case Hurdle needs him, nothing more
are we going to trade for marco scutaro and put him on the bench???
good point, don't even think of them as backup, just emergency
They are keeping 4 players just for emergency… 2 catchers, Ciriaco for SS, and Wood for 1B.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Jun 12, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
21-man, actually. Wood, Ciriaco, Brown, and Toregas don’t count.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Jun 12, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
i see
The problem with the offense is that the pinch runners aren’t good hitters. Sweet assessment.
In seriousness, we all know the offense sucks. But you’re post is ridiculous. Jones and Diaz are not two of the worst 20 players in MLB. Ciriaco never plays, so it’s hard to be too upset about his lack of contribution. You’re just overreacting because you’re frustrated that the Pirates have scored 4 runs in the last 4 games.
“You’re just overreacting because you’re frustrated that the Pirates have scored 4 runs in the last 4 games”
Have you not watched this team play all season? We, VERY LITERALLY, rank in the 20’s in every single offensive category. Runs, 25th. Batting average, 25th. OBP, 22nd. Slugging, 26th. XBH, 24th. This not a 4 game reaction…..
Yes, and as I said in the very comment you’re responding to, “we all know the offense sucks.”
My point is that people are overreacting in the short term by claiming that Overbay and Diaz need to be cut or that Alex Presley is better than a Jones/Diaz platoon or that the offense is struggling because Pedro Ciriaco is such a shitty hitter.
I think Ciriaco being a “shitty hitter” is seriously part of the problem. His offensive deficiencies are well, well known and if he’s only gonna get 3 AB’s, what the hell’s the point? We could have a legitimately useful offensive player up in his place without losing anything defensively(He’s not being used as a defensive sub…).
Overbay really is THE problem. To be hitting what he’s hitting as a 1b is disgraceful and because he’s disgraceful, we’re having to use guys like Walker in spots they shouldn’t be used in. Walker is not a cleanup hitter.
dont blame Walker for his low numbers for a clean up hitter
the only player doing well at all is Cutch. Overbay, and yes im defending him again, was NOT brung in to be the focal point of the offense. alvarez and jones were supposed to be the run producers in this lineup, not Lyle.
Lyle has been hitting the ball better the last couple of weeks; not great, but better. Just missed another homer again, probably has hit 4 homers near the notch and would have been out in other parks.
and despite the errors, hes STILL the best 1B we have, and the only other 1Bman who was a free agent last season putting up good numbers is Berkman, who would have never come to Pitt anyway.
so relax about Lyle. hes one year and gone; and hes NOT the only reason why our offense is not performing.
I’m not blaming Walker even a little bit. It’s not his fault that he’s hitting at a spot in the order that he doesn’t belong in.
Pedro was certainly a massive disappointment but for Lyle to be putting up the numbers he is is ridiculous. And to have Ciriaco on the 25 man is unexplainable to me. 3 runs a game for us is a serious struggle and we’re carrying Ciriaco. I just shake my head. .
why are you surprised by Lyle's numbers? hes exactly what we expected except that his D has slipped a tad
overbay was NOT signed to be the cleanup hitter. walker was NOT supposed to be the cleanup hitter. Jones and Alvarez are the power guys. Overbay and Diaz are the veterans brought in to help the youngsters.
i too dont understand Ciriaco being on the roster but i honestly dont give two shits about it.
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
hes exactly what we expected except that his D has slipped a tad
He’s been a bit worse with the bat than expected. Most projections were calling for him to be right around a 100 OPS+, and he’s currently sitting at 88. That is at least the same neighborhood of the expectation, though, and old players like Overbay DO typically have more potential downside variance than upside.
If he "never plays"...
…then why is he on the roster at all? Does that sound like intelligent roster design, to carry a guy whom you plan/hope never to use?
by Vlad on Jun 12, 2011 6:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree with that
I’m not arguing that. I’m arguing that Ciriaco has about as much impact on this offense right now as Alex Presley does.
I agree with you that Ciriaco shouldn’t be on the roster right now.
I’m arguing that Ciriaco has about as much impact on this offense right now as Alex Presley does.
His presence on the roster is kind of the metaphorical “dog that didn’t bark”. If he weren’t on the roster, someone else would be, and there’s at least the chance that that someone else would be a good enough hitter to be adding value to the offense as a PH/spot starter. Ciriaco hasn’t done much direct damage to run scoring, but his spot on the 25-man roster does reflect a certain opportunity cost that’s being invisibly paid.
other than cedeno and jones/diaz, you have no argument at all
even then, there are much worse players at SS and RF than those 3.
crazy talk.
I wish they were our backups
But these guys are Starting! With the exception of Ciriaco. Sorry I’m just furious about this game. Ill go away now.
by bosten7 on Jun 12, 2011 5:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To clarify
I’m not blaming the front office or anything…we’ve just been destroyed by injuries. The roster right now is sort of just bad luck me thinks.
by bosten7 on Jun 12, 2011 5:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We're being destroyed by injuries in 3 positions.
3B, C and bullpen. The bullpen is doing just fine. Pedro was near invisible at 3B when he WAS healthy. So the only position we are getting hammered at is C. Everywhere but 3B and C are the players we started the season with.
We need to quit making excuses for the offense.
25% of the offense means no excuses?
Only in the world of Thunder is 25% nothing, because it’s convenient this time.
agreed...
I want to clarify that I am not down on the entire offense like some are and I’m not calling for wholesale changes. I am quite aware that most of these guys are 3rd and 4th options on the depth chart because of all the injuries which don’t seem to be given enough attention when discussing the Pirate’s woes. I’ve stated that I feel D’Arnaud should be left in the minors. I don’t think we should rush Fryer and Sanchez to the majors because they are both prospects and Huntington has stated that they both need more development time. My one, and really only, point is that RF is one of the many holes and the Pirates have a young, and more interesting option imo, than what is on the major league roster right now.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I think the front office is going to do something.
I sat in the PNC box today, and Frank Coonelly was a few seats to my left. He was visibly seething the entire game.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
Yeah, it’s pretty cool. I’d only sat in a box once before, but, as you’d guess, the PNC box at PNC Park is pretty nice.
Coonelly’s is ten times nicer and twice the size.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Jun 12, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Walker shouldn't be the #4 guy.
Get him out of there and he will hit better again.
Get Presley to the majors. At least get some advantage with the speed and D he and X Paul can provide.
パトリック
In case we've forgotten
Nearly everyone here and on other Pirates message boards believed this team would win about 70 games (+/- 5 games) this season. The team has so far played well beyond what most of us expected as the season began.
Three key position players are hitting well below what was expected of them, Alvarez, Tabata and Walker. Unless these players were flukes, they’ll probably improve as the year goes on.
Presley ought to play, and it’s important that he play for the same reasons it was important to put McCutchen, Tabata, Walker and Alvarez on the field when they were ready.
There is little relief coming from the minors. Bowker may be sooo far to the rear of the doghouse that he may never come out. D’Arnaud probably needs more time at AAA. Fryer too. Marte and Sanchez need to test themselves against AAA pitching. And Curry has spent only a few weeks in AA.
This position player black hole is just one consequence of Littlefield and Creech’s draft strategy. They needed to do a better job. But, the fact that they needed to do a better job is one of the reasons they were fired. Smith also has been no great finder of position player talent, although his drafts have been pitching heavy by design.
s.zielinski
The position player black hole is also a consequence of the current administration drafting a large majority of their players at pitcher. Just an example…the first 20 rounds of this year’s draft
9 RHP
2 LHP
7 OF
1 3B
1 SS (and that was in the 20th round)
2010…12 RHP, 2 LHP, 4 OF, 1 SS, 1 1B.
I thought I made that point?
I did, I did make that point:
Smith also has been no great finder of position player talent, although his drafts have been pitching heavy by design.
s.zielinski
I don't think the position player black hole is a consequence of Huntington/Smith's draft strategy
In a couple of years it will be, but not now. In 2008 they drafted a bunch of college position players high; Pedro Alvarez has of course been up for a while and is now hurt, and d’Arnaud and Hague are at AAA and fairly close to stepping in.
In 2009 the top pick was again a college position player whose ascent has been slowed by injury; but AFAICT very few 2009 position players are near contributing to the majors. Dustin Ackley is about to be called up, but most of the other position player picks seem to be still in AA (and of course Ackley was off the board when we picked). Part of this is that most of the draft was very pitching heavy.
2010 and 2011 were very pitching-heavy, but of course it’s too soon for any of those picks to be close to contributing to the majors. The highest-drafted college bat, Christian Colon, is OPSing 646 in AA.
So the culprit isn’t Smith and Huntington’s drafts; it’s their ML acquisitions and trades. (And Dave Littlefield, too; M**t W**t*rs would be useful now, wouldn’t he?)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jun 12, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, because
lots of players make it to the majors and are starters either 1 week or 53 weeks after they are drafted.
More doom and gloom...
from a Peter Gammons tweet earlier today.
pgammoPeter Gammons
Commissioner’s Office holds teams to not negotiation above slot until mid-August. Scott Boras’s first serious call last year? Aug., 10.
Guess we can forget seeing Cole and Bell play this season. Hopefully, we can still sign them, although that would probably run Bell up against a decision on whether to start school at Texas.
we should all start to ignore almost everything that comes out of Gammons mouf
he was 100& sure we were choosing Hultzen, probably cuz Nutting is too cheap to pony up.
Gammons is a crumby reporter at this point. He still has his reputation, and that’s all he needs.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Jun 12, 2011 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
If in regards to amateur players development...
I agree, Gammons is not a great source. When it comes to stuff happening at high levels of baseball…on the operations side…I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some validity to that statement. We’ve seen it happen too many times in the last few years to not have some credence.
When we start hearing about teams signing players above slot…then I will discount his words. And I’m not talking about our front office in a positive or negative way here. The MLB office has to sign off on the contracts, so they control when signings become official.
if i want to know something about the RedSox, then i'll listen to Gammons
anything else? he’ll fall on deaf ears
Expecting either of those guys to sign early was always stupid, bordering on delusional. That’s just not how it works with top talents, especially Boras clients.
Anyone disappointed bythis has nobody but themselves to blame.
by Vlad on Jun 12, 2011 6:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes, this.
Potentially Cole, but definitely not Bell. It’s the way the slot approval system works, you’re not getting your guys on the field until the next season.
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
by CW on Jun 12, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Which, looking at it as an outsider, is the most cripplingly idiotic thing I’ve ever seen: players willing to sit out entire seasons, not even willing to negotiate until near the deadline, and Selig sitting with his thumb up his ass doing everything in his power to extend that process even more because he’s afraid someone might pay a rookie a little more than he suggests.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
I left the game when KC was still en route for something special...
& we lost the game 7-0 ?
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jun 12, 2011 6:34 PM EDT reply actions
KC still pitched a fantastic game.
the pen just didnt hold the lead… but that happens. we shouldnt get all bent out of shape about it
You know I've been so stunned that I totally forgot to read the boxscore yet...
One good point if KC’s been fantastic
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Jun 12, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't Jones having a decent season?
.766 OPS in a down year for offense. I don’t get it.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 12, 2011 6:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
People are getting bent out of shape about Jones because he’s been dead in the water for a month now after a hot start.
In the aggregate, you are of course correct that he’s been right about where an observer should’ve expected him to be.
by Vlad on Jun 12, 2011 6:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Actually, Jones has been even better than that .766 OPS against righties, (he hasn't been in a STRICT platoon).
.798 with .359 of that coming from OBP. That’s seriously good offensive production. To compare that to others, his WRC+ this year against righties is equal to the total line of Colby Rasmus and better than the total lines of Jose Tabata, Ryan Ludwick, and Carlos Gonzalez
Numbers!
Preseason ZiPS on Jones was .262/.316/.444. He’s currently sitting at .238/.341/.411 for the year. Up about 30 points of OBP, down about 30 points of SLG, and within nine points of wOBA of his preseason forecast.
(Lots of season still left, of course.)
D’Arnaud is probably the biggest offensive upgrade from within the system, since Cedeno and Wood’s numbers have badly sagged.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 12, 2011 8:36 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Um, Brandon Wood is hitting .333 in June. I think even Charlie can admit (not happily, though) that Wood’s numbers have not “sagged”. Don’t worry, I won’t say anymore about Wood cause I’ll give Charlie a heart attack.
by impliedi on Jun 12, 2011 9:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
not to support the Wood haters on here, but Wood's ABs are not pleasant to watch
his swing was pretty bad to begin with, and now they are tinkering with it and its just flat out sad. dropping his hands, the uppercut, the weak follow through… shame.
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
clearly just getting lucky.
Although his LIDP (line out into double play) Saturday might have been his most well hit ball of the month (and not so great baserunning by Jones).
Gotta agree that Overbay, Jones and Diaz aren't the problems with the offense.
It is the “core”. Number one culprit, of course, is Pedro Alvarez. Followed closely by Tabata and Walker. These are the guys who are supposed to be carrying the offense. To try and pin the offensive woes on a role player like Diaz or a complimentary player like Overlay is utterly and completely missing the problem. Or to think that Alex Presley or Chase d’Arnaud are going to come up and carry the whole team on their backs is certainly dreaming. Look to the core and you’ll find your problems and, more importantly, the solutions.
by impliedi on Jun 12, 2011 9:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
- Overbay (stupid autocorrect on the phone!)
by impliedi on Jun 12, 2011 9:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Tabata and Walker are not problems. They are doing about as well as (realists) expected. As are Jones, Cedeno, and Overbay. Diaz has underperformed, but he’s got a pretty limited role.
Alvarez and injuries are the big problem. Over the offseason, ZiPS projected Alvarez to have a 118 OPS+ and the Pirates to be about average offensively overall. Give Alvarez a 65 OPS+ and an injury, and all of a sudden you’re a bad offense. Then give both your catchers injuries as well and . . . well, here we are.
Perhaps “problems” is too strong a word. Though Walker’s OPS has dropped 100 points in the last 3 weeks. Tabata has gotten some hits in bunches (especially in the last week) to finally start to get his numbers up after a month-long slide. But the point I’m making is that the offense is going to go as far as Tabatha, McCutchen, Walker and Alvarez takes it. Pointing fingers at the rest of the team seems unfair. Charlie characterized the bottom half of the Pirates line-up as automatic outs, while leaving Walker and Tabata out of that designation, which I would not agree with. For most of the year, everyone not named Andrew McCutchen has pretty much been an automatic out (short hot streaks, not withstanding.)
by impliedi on Jun 12, 2011 9:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
- Tabata (autocorrect strikes again!)
by impliedi on Jun 12, 2011 9:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Walker and Tabata are fine
Both slightly above league average this year with the bat, no one should have expected much more.
yet they expect Overbay to put up AllStar numbers?
yeah his OPS is down, it doesnt mean it wont come up. hes a career 800 OPS which is higher than nearly everyone else in the lineup.
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d be ecstatic if he put up something close to that. Sadly he’s hovered in the 5 and 600’s all year. Not much to defend
hes actually been up to nearly 700 this month
yeah, i know, not great, but not far below Walker and Tabata either.
im pretty confident it will continue to rise.
I'm pretty sure even Cutch was at .209 not that long ago
No one is sacred on this offense (except Pearce)
by Mr. E on Jun 13, 2011 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well Charlie
I rarely see eye to eye with the entirety of your posts, but I gotta agree with you on this one.
We need offense bad, it appears Fryer will not get a shot, but damn, D’Arnaud and Presley need to come to Pittsburgh asap. Also, Matt Hague is having a pretty nice year at 1b in AAA, I know Overbay was signed to “start all year” but just another name to think about
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
why is Hague now playing alot of 3B?
mayyyyyyyybe because he needs to play more positions to have a chance in the show? perhaps?
by white angus on Jun 12, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Every minor leaguer is better than every veteran. I heard that McCutchen should be moving to a corner for Starling Marte as soon as this time next year.
im pretty sure this was a slight at my post, so ill say this, with a bordline shitty offense, and with Overbay not doing much to help, why cant we consider Hague as an internal candidate to man some games at 1b either sometime this year or next?
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
Hauge has a .334 wOBA in AAA.
He isn’t likely to represent much of an upgrade over Overbay offensively and would be a downgrade defensively.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Jeff Banister did a horrible job as manager today.
Since no one else mentioned it yet… I’ll talk about the actual game…
Kevin Correia 8th inning… excellent.
First two outs, great. Already having a lefty and a righty warming in the pen, excellent.
3rd batter gets a hit, – ok I’m pulling KC here for the lefty Moskos to face the lefty Reyes. Nope, leave him in to get a hit.
Ok, I’m pulling KC HERE for Resop to face the righty Turner – NOPE, leave him in to put one off the wall… in RF.
Ok, bring in Moskos here to flip Beltran around where he’s already gotten comfortable tonight and to face the next batter, lefty batter Murphy if needed – Nope, bring in the RHP Resop for 1 pitch, THEN bring in Moskos to face Murpy.
Absolutely terrible job of putting your players in a position to succeed and completely gave away a winnable game against the Mets pen.
I've been wondering
I was listening to the game in the mid innings, then heard the implosion, and I couldn’t tell how much it was a slow hook on KC. I’d been thinking after the 6th that there was going to be a strong temptation to leave him in too long. Blass said that he was putting the ball wherever he wanted for awhile there; did that end during the 7th, or were 2 hits + a sac fly not actually a big deal (forn a stuff standpoint)?
He was definitely leaving the ball up in the 6-8th and was visibly frustrated with himself, punching his glove and such after hits.
I had a feeling
He’d been so dominant, I figured that multiple hits was a sign of losing it completely. Criminal for Banister not to have him on a super-short leash.
I think "hot-hitting AAA player"
is replacing “backup quarterback” as “the most popular guy in town”.
On Jones
I know that Slick1 has backed off his Jones hate from upthread, and that a few people have pointed out that he’s been OK in the aggregate, and quite good against righties, but I just want to lay out the monthly numbers, because the idea that he’s basically been crummy except for his first half season and a couple hot streaks is really inaccurate:
2010 wRC+ (not wOBA, because the offensive environment changed so much year to year)
A: 105
M: 104
J: 144
J: 84
A: 33
S: 66
2011
A: 147
M: 61
J: 202
Now: ~105 early last year isn’t good enough for an RFª or 1B, but it’s above average and, as we know, he was basically not platooned at all, and over 1/3 of his PAs came against lefties. Even with that spectacularly bad/unluckyªª August, his wRC+ vs. righties last year was 108; I’d bet that, had he been platooned, he would have done even better vs. righties, as he obviously pressed late last year.
Anyway, the guy has played 11.5 months for the Pirates; 3 have been terrible, 1 was bad, 2 mediocre, 2 good, 2 great, and 1.5 unbelievable. If he’d been platooned for much or most of ‘10, we’d probably be looking at something like 2 terrible, 1 bad, & 3 mediocre. In other words, completely fine for a cheap platoon guy who plays solid RF defense (career UZR/150 of 4.8).
ª Best as I can tell, a wRC+ of ~107 is break even on positional adjustment for RF; closer to 115 for 1B
ªª I went into this at length last September – his BABIP in August was .117; his next-worst month in MLB is .206
By break-even on positional adjustment, do you mean average, replacement-level, or que? It seems quite high for replacement level and maybe low for average.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jun 13, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Average
I was surprised it was that low, esp. for 1B.
For Fangraphs WAR, the positional adjustment is about -5.8 runs for a full year in RF, and -11 for 1B. A wRC+ of 115 gives you 13+ Runs Above Average for a full season (at least it did for Ike Davis; I’m pretty sure wRC+ has a linear relationship to RAA, but not certain).
If you’re an average offensive and defensive player, most of your value comes from being a warm body at your position – about 22 “runs” per year. So a perfectly average fielder and batter (for his position) with average baserunning is going to be worth ~2.2 WAR, because a replacement player would have been worth about 22 runs below average.
I think it’s still hard for a lot of people to distinguish between average and replacement-level performance; we see a guy like Jones failing to mash at an offense-first position and conclude that the guys stinks. But unless he’s got an actual hole in his game (as he does at 1B), he’s still providing decent value. As I said in the Josh Harrison thread, it’s extremely rare for even the best teams to have more than average performance from most of their positions; what you much more typically see is a couple of All-Stars, a couple of very good players, and then a blend of average and below-average players, often with a guy or two below replacement. I’m personally a big fan of the “avoid holes” philosophy of putting together a roster; one truly shitty regular transforms Andrew McCutchen into a league-average player.
If we take 2.2 wins as exactly average for position players and SPsª, you get 28.6 wins from your regulars; a decent bench & bullpen are worth another 5 wins (maybe). Call it 4.4 for round number purposes, add it to a 45 win baseline, and you get 78 wins. Which is about right, right? Average team is close to .500. The bottom line is that every player above 2.2 WAR is helping, but if you’ve got holes, you need to match that hole with someone who’s well above average. But studs like Pujols and (incredibly) Bautista make up for multiple holes; hell, Pujols plus 12 average guys is a contender. The only hitch is that, if you get injuries, now you need to make up for the (presumably) replacement level performance from the injured players.
ª That’s exactly what the median #3 SP was in 2010
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