The Baseball Rule of Thirds

by zogger on Jun 22, 2011 6:45 PM EDT

There is an old saying in baseball:

"No matter what you do, you will lose 1/3 of your games and win 1/3 of your games. It is what do you do with the 1/3 left that determine's your season."

Using the above adage, last year the Bucs were 3-51 in the games that decided their 2010 season. Identifying which games were part of the 54 which determined the Pirates season is hard to do. I have looked thru last season's games and was hard pressed to categorize the games. But when you have bad pitching, hitting, and defense it is hard to win games.

I think this recent 3 game series with the O's is a nice reflection of Baseball's Rule of Thirds and how the Pirates this year are different from last year.

Game 1 was a blow out with the O's scoring early and often to romp to a 8-3 win. Categorized this one as part of the 1/3 you were going to lose during the season.

Game 2 was a Pirate romp. The Bucs scored early, added to the lead, and won 9-3. I put this in the category of 1/3 you were going to win.

Today's game was definitely in the category of a game that determine's your season. The Pirates take a small early lead, lose the lead, take it back, and then bring in the bullpen to shut the door. This is the type of game the Pirates did not often win in the past 18 years. Once they got behind, they would lose. If they were ahead, the bull pen would cough up the lead

Recall the Met game where the Bucs took a 7-0 lead early. This was a win served up for the taking, but the Bucs let it slip away. The Mets came back, grabbed the lead, and the Bucs failed to rally. This is another game that helps decide your season. In this case the Bucs lost it.

The Bucs present .500 record is a reflection of how they are finding ways to win their share of the 54 games that will decide their season. Right now they are winning mostly due to strong SP and a solid BP with a "lights out" closer. The defense is doing it's part but the hitting is weak. They are winning few games with their bats. I think the hitting will come, but they aren't doing it yet.

I also give credit to Hurdle and his staff. I think Hurdle is helping the players win games that under Russel they would lose. I don't think it is because of his in-game moves (yea that bunting thing!). Hurdle is manipulating his lineups better. He is giving guys better chances to succeed. It the Bucs finish at .500, they will have improved by 24 games!

Obviously the Pirates need to get much better, but the signs are there. And they are much more interesting to follow!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

I think 1-run games is the key to our improvement

We’ve played in 19 one-run games this year. That’s 26%, so not too far off of the 1/3 rule. In those 19 games, we’re 12-7. That’s a winning pct of 63.1%

Last year at this time we played in 44 one-run games. That was 27%, so again not too far off. In those 44 games, we were 20-24. That’s a winning pct of 45.4%

So if we play in 44 one run games, a pace we’re not too far from, and we win 63.1% we should see an improvement of 8 games (I rounded up from 7.764).

Couple that with our run differential improvement and we are witnessing a major improvement.

by pantherboy on Jun 22, 2011 8:27 PM EDT reply actions

not last year at this time...

by pantherboy on Jun 22, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I was wondering about that

but not gonna’ do higher math this late at night.

What does that mean?!

by Trogluddite on Jun 22, 2011 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions

nice number crunching

thanks Panther

by Garrett122 on Jun 23, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions

One run games can be pretty random

The 2003 Detroit Tigers won over 50% of one run games, and finished 43-119.

In general, the good teams win them and the bad ones don’t. Chicken and egg conversation to me. The better you are, the more 1 run games you win and vice versa. I agree that this team has improved, but the 1 run games are a reflection of this improvement, not a cause.

by Wizard of Woz on Jun 23, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions

The rule of thirds is a nice saying, but it doesn’t honestly hold too much water in terms of being taken literally.

As far as one-run games, the numbers over time have shown that they’re largely a matter of luck – every team regresses to around .500 in one-run games over the course of a few seasons. What’s more indicative of good teams is their record in blowouts, which is something that doesn’t tend to regress as much.

This also makes sense intuitively. Do people remember the 1927 Yankees because of the way they gutted out a bunch of one-run games? No, they remember them for dominating their opponents. And dominate they did. Their record that year was 43-8 in blowouts (games won or lost by 5+ runs) for a crazy .843 winning percentage in those games. Their record in one-run games, meanwhile, was 24-19 for a .558 winning percentage. Even the team widely considered to be the best in baseball history won one-run games based more on luck than on skill. It’s the blowouts that make them great.

Luckily, the Pirates have improved in blowouts as well. This season they’re 9-10 (.474) in such contests. Mediocre, yes, but a vast improvement over their record of 11-39 (.220) last season.

Shameless self promotion time – I track blowout victories and losses for the Bucs on my blog at www.stealingfirstbase.com.

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Stealing First Base on Jun 22, 2011 9:47 PM EDT reply actions

Do people remember the 1927 Yankees

lol yes i remember them, NH broke them up a few years ago…
lol yes i remember them, because we were all around to watch them…
lol yes i remember them, because they were on ROOT that day, oh wait….

cant set me up like that ;)

We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!

by C Shint on Jun 23, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Lou Gehrig: Now I’ve got a place to root.

by Garrett122 on Jun 23, 2011 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

+1 lol and rec’d

We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!

by C Shint on Jun 23, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions

agreed

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 23, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Not Exactly Literally but

It does seem that even the worse teams win 1/3 of their games. So while 1/3 is not a precise number, it does have some basis in reality.

They key why I wrote this post is to remember that you won’t win (or lose) every game. Rather the way to judge if a team like the Pirates is imrpoving is to see how well they take advantage of the opportunities to win a game. This year they are doing much better giving themselves a chance to win and the closing the deal.

by zogger on Jun 23, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, fair enough. I guess my objection is more that people tend to classify the blowouts as “the ones you would win anyway” and “the ones you would lose anyway.” In reality, that’s not the case.

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Stealing First Base on Jun 23, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions