Is This Pitching Staff for Real?

by Dan Pietrusinski on Jun 27, 2011 10:49 PM EDT

The improvement from last year into this year is remarkable. Although the hitting has left a lot to be desired, the record as a whole can be largely attributed to the bullpen and rotations who have all performed way above expectations. After the jump, looking at the high and low points of this years pitching staff and comparing it to last year.

2010 Rotation

Top Performers: James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf

With ERAs of 3.52 and 4.08 respectfully, these two statistically were our best starters. Considering McDonald wasn’t acquired until the trade deadline and Ohlendors record was 1-11, the rotation struggled mightily last year.

Maholm: 5.11 Duke: 5.67 Morton: 7.61 Karstens: 4.93

2010 Bullpen

Top Performers: Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan

Meek earned the all-star bid last year and finished the season with a 2.14 ERA. He was easily the most reliable arm out of the bullpen. Chris Resop also performed well once acquired. Joel Hanrahan will be discussed below.

D. McCutchen: 67IP, 6.16ERA, Sean Gallagher: 34.1IP, 6.07ERA

2011 Rotation

Top Performers: Everyone

With the exception of James McDonald, every Pirates starter has an ERA under 4. 2011 Pirate Starters Wins: 30. 2010: 31 (As far as I can tell). Granted, wins have a lot to do with the run production received, however it still requires the starter to go deep into the game to get the chance to win. The rotation has bounced back in a way no one expected this year

2011 Bullpen

Joel Hanrahan

With 100 strikeouts in 70 innings last year, improvement would have been difficult. But Hanrahan was also in a different role, mostly pairing with Meek as a set up man to get to Dotel. The man has been nothing short of spectacular this year though. With 22 saves already 2 weeks before the all star break, he has performed remarkably enough to have Jon Heyman from SI call him the best reliever in the NL so far. I’m not a big believer in Saves, but this is remarkable: 2010 Pirate Saves: 31; 2011: 23

Tomorrow: Pirates @ Blue Jays: RetroBlog

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

So you are saying our pitching is better this year?

by Joey Mooney on Jun 27, 2011 10:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Nope, I’m saying it is much much worse.

Daniel Pietrusinski

by Dan Pietrusinski on Jun 27, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Is there evidence?

In 2010 every starter had an ERA+ that was below average (except the late addition McDonald). This year all but McDonald are above average. And in 2011 three relievers had an ERA+ that was above average. Everyone else was below average. In 2011 Hanrahan, McCutchen, Veras, and Resop are above average. So, either you’ve got a logic that is not well spelled out, or you’re bonkers. Which is it?

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Jun 28, 2011 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Think he's being sarcastic.

He doesn’t say anything negative about the pitching this year in his post.

#AllTheBuntsAreBad!

by Slick1 on Jun 28, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

um, it's neither

it’s called “sarcasm.”

by Garrett122 on Jun 28, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

We’re last in strike-outs — it has to be much worse.

Thank you Ned Colletti.

by ryebr3ad on Jun 28, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

You didn’t answer your question: Is it for real? Or is something else at work, such as luck, improved defense or that offense in general is down throughout baseball.

If it’s truly better, then why? Why are Maholm and Karstens better this season?

by bolton on Jun 28, 2011 12:24 AM EDT reply actions

heres a reason...

by white angus on Jun 28, 2011 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Well, despite better pitching league-round, four of our starters have an ERA+ over 100. Four better than average starters.

Thank you Ned Colletti.

by ryebr3ad on Jun 28, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I had kind of forgot about the Meek-Hanrahan-Dotel trio.

Meek has been hurt, and Dotel long gone.

Boy was that a luxury. Hanrahan would shut down the 7th, Meek shuts down the 8th, and Dotel (usually) closed well.

The bullpen this year isn’t nearly as strong. Outside of Hanrahan, the bullpen is scary to watch, and I never truly can trust any pitcher besides Hanrahan (who is bound to blow a save eventually). Watson, McCutchen, and Moskos have done well, but Veras, Wood, and Resop could blow up at any point.

by H2O on Jun 28, 2011 12:49 AM EDT reply actions

if we're just looking at results

then you have to move Veras into the “done very well” category. He’s had some shaky moments but the results have been solid.

by Garrett122 on Jun 28, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Cutch and Moskos also solid job at least on ERA. Last year’s pen was more trustworthy, I’ll give him that

by Mr. E on Jun 28, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

The real truth lies in this statement

The rotation has bounced back in a way no one expected this year.

The problem is, not only is the majority of the staff out pitching their FIP and xFIP, those FIP and xFIP numbers are better than any ZIPS projections, etc. Now, obviously those projections aren’t always right and pitchers may have made significant progress (Karstens with his control, Morton changing his entire philosophy), but it still stands to reason that all are guys are getting lucky and are pitching over their heads in terms of true talent.

While the staff should continue to be better than last year, if I were a betting man (and I am) I would bet on regression.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 28, 2011 10:24 AM EDT reply actions

but it still stands to reason that all are guys are getting lucky and are pitching over their heads in terms of true talent.

Really?

Our staff has had it’s share of good luck, and sure, a bit of regression is possible. But is it really reasonable to suggest that all five of them are simultaneously pitching over their heads? That seems statistically unlikely unto itself. At what point do we have to think that Searage’s influence / Hurdle’s influence / insert-abstract-“culture of winning”-idea here — is actually starting to make a difference.?

by Garrett122 on Jun 28, 2011 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

I would bet on regression because the Pirate staff is last in the National League in Ks. It stands to reason that more balls will start landing for hits (as has happened with Morton in June) or home runs. That’s not to say the staff is going to completely collapse.

We also have to remember that offense, for whatever reason, has been declining. The league average ERA has gone from 4.43 to 4.29 to 4.19 to 4.02 to 3.80 during the past 5 seasons.

by bolton on Jun 28, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I would bet on regression because the Pirate staff is last in the National League in Ks.

This isn’t so worrisome to me, because of our five guys, only McDonald approximates anything close to a strikeout pitcher (and even he gets a lot of fly balls.) Morton, Maholm, Correia, and Karstens are all at their best when then get tons of GBs.

I agree with you that some regression is probably in order, but I don’t think we’re going to regress to anything like last year’s numbers.

I just think that if you’re looking at five different guys, it’s possible that all of them are significantly overperforming, but it’s also possible that we’re just looking at genuine improvement. That certainly seems likely for Morton and Karstens, at least.

by Garrett122 on Jun 28, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

But is it really reasonable to suggest that all five of them are simultaneously pitching over their heads?

Yes, using xFIP from fangraphs and projected ERA from ZIPS
Jeff Karstens – ERA 2.66 – xFIP 3.76 – ZIPS 5.06
Charlie Morton – ERA 3.77 – xFIP 3.76 – ZIPS 4.95
James McDonald – ERA 4.52 – xFIP 4.56 – ZIPS 4.14
Kevin Correria – ERA 4.12 – xFIP 3.56 – ZIPS 4.52 (for the Padres in Petco)
Paul Maholm – ERA 3.21 – xFIP 4.02 – ZIPS 4.40

So Karstens is getting really lucky so far this year. Correria and Maholm are getting pretty lucky. Morton was (probably) getting lucky until he gave up 15 ER in his last 11 innings. Seems his luck ran out. McDonald, our “worst” pitcher, has had normal/average luck.

Every pitcher except McDonald (who’s again been our worst pitcher) has out-pitched his expected ERA (which I realize isn’t normalized to park effects like xFIP is, so maybe FIP would have been a better stat to use), and for Karstens, Correria, and Morton it’s been by a significant amount.

Some of that may be due to actual improvement, but the Pirates staff has pitched much better than expect and has been much luckier than we should expect them to be. Regression, unfortunately, is imminent.

(Added note: While I haven’t posted the numbers, 4/5 – Mcdonald left out again – have better xFIP’s this year compared to their career numbers. Another sign pointing to “pitching over their head.”)

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 28, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

metrics sure have a hard time predicting the future, dont they?

isnt it possible that some, if not all, are not pitching above their heads but have genuinely improved their craft?

by white angus on Jun 28, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

It's

possible, but my point is to be wary of guys who suddenly become much better, especially if there doesn’t seem to be a reason. For Morton, it was going back to the 2-seamer. For Karstens it’s his improved control/command.

Still, going back to being wary and accounting for luck, a realistic view point would expect regression. That’s all I’m saying.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 28, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

ZIPS

ZIPS also hates everyone. I get depressed when I read Szymborski’s projections going into the year: no one wins 18 games, no one hits 45 homeruns. More interesting are the “player to watch” highlights, complete with % performance modifiers to almost give an expected range.

by SuperBaes on Jun 29, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, technically it means that no individual person is more likely to hit 45 home runs or not, which isn’t quite the same thing.

Look at 40 home runs – I didn’t project anyone to hit 40 home runs, with the max at 39. However, I projected 33 players to have a 5% chance at 40 homers. Essentially, ZiPS isn’t projecting any individual to have a median projection of 40 home runs, but is projecting there being a 40 home run hitter as overwhelmingly likely (given the assumed levels of offense, the odds that none of those 33 players would hit 40 home runs given their projected playing time was 1-in-464).

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Jun 29, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not just luck Truth...

yes there has been some as there has been some bad luck but there are clear indications that Morton, Correia and Karstens are all better than last year. Additionally, the Pirate’s defense has gone from the worst in the league to top 10 last I checked. That more than anything would help explain the success of this staff which largely pitch to contact. Last year the defense was terrible and so were the pitching results. This year it’s very good and so are the pitching resutls.

#AllTheBuntsAreBad!

by Slick1 on Jun 28, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

plus the times that the defense has been less than stellar seems to come in spurts

like the last game against Boston… then the team runs off like a handful of games where the entire defense is fantastic

by white angus on Jun 28, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Pitching Staff to Ms. Jackson:

I am for real

Put on your dancin' shoes.

by PensFan024 on Jun 28, 2011 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

The actual ERA’s have improved over 2011 in large part due to the improved fielding – Walker is much better at 2nd than he was in 2010, Cedeno is having a good year defensively, and Cutch has been very solid in CF. That accounts for a significant portion of the improved ERA.

The FIP for Pirates starters is not going to be very good since very few of the SP’ers give high K totals, and they give up their share of bombs. The simple fact is that FIP treats all defenses the same.

They aren’t, and the FIP analysis does not claim to be able to differentiate between good fielding teams and bad fielding teams.

by BuccoFan21 on Jun 28, 2011 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

According

to fangraphs, the Pirates are slightly above average as a team when it comes to defense (using UZR). They sit at about the 33rd percentile. Their UZR is 8.9 and and UZR/150 is 2.7.

Again, they are above average, but are they enough above average to explain the xFIP and FIP gaps. I honestly don’t know because I’m not sure how you would factor that, but I would personally doubt it.

The pitching staff has been great. Honestly, since Correria and Morton have fallen off somewhat, I expect them to be at about the level they can sustain. However, when we talked about the staff two weeks ago (when their success really started getting attention), it was fairly clear to me that they were getting lucky and it was unsustainable. Regardless, who knows, I could very wrong and I hope I am.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 28, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

The expected regression based upon FIP supposes that the ERA will likely regress towards league average.

Which makes a lot of sense if the defense is league average. If it is above league average, then the expected regression is lessened. That is the weakness of FIP – it treats all defenses as league average, when they are obviously NOT.

by BuccoFan21 on Jun 28, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

That's

what I said I thought, although you put it much better.

My point is, while our defense isn’t average, like FIP expects, I don’t think it’s good enough to argue our staff’s ERAs are appropriate for their FIP.

Either way, just look at the other “luck” stats

Throwing out McDonald (see above to see why)…

Charlie Morton

The large difference between this year and last is the GB% and the HR/9 rate. I’d say those are sustainable because of the difference in approach (although he does have THE best GB% and HR/9 rate in the major leagues – hard to do). In fact, considering we are above average, I’d say he’s improved drastically and might be getting a tad unlucky. Basically his 3.77 ERA seems to be his true talent, or maybe slightly better, but probably not the sub 3 ERA he was rocking for a while.

Jeff Karstens

Another “improvement” candidate. At least that seems to be the case. However, his K/9 and BB/9 rates are similar to last year. That’s only because of a down June so far. Until June, his K/9 rates were higher by a solid amount as compared to last year, and his walk numbers dipped mightily in May.

His BABIP is .246. According to fangraphs Trevor Cahill had the lowest last year at .238. The NINETIETH percentile was .271. Karstens’s LOB% is 85.1% which would have been the best in baseball last year. Yes, he may currently unlucky with HR/FB%, but with marginal stuff, he’s not far off from where his career is. He’s going to regress.

Kevin Correia

BABIP is .275, while his career is .296, so a .21 differential. His 7.9% HR/FB rate and .89 HR/9 are 2.1% and .25 off his career mark respectively. Yes his walks are down, but so are his strikeouts, significantly, and his K/BB rate is only .23 better than his career rate. His LOB% is somewhat worse than his career mark (worse = unlucky)

He’s due for some regression, although he’s much better than last year.

Paul Maholm

Compared to his career numbers, Maholm has a .250 BABIP (.308 career), the worst walk rate of his career, and only an average strikeout rate. His LOB% is slightly unlucky compared to his career.

He’s due for some regression.

It’s a solid staff and is preforming well considering, and there has been progression, but we are getting lucky, especially Karstens, and it should run out. It may not and I hope so, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 28, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

you make good points, but you assume that the pitchers will fall into their norms; that they never improve or get worse

but things can change my friend. this aint the weather in San Diego, ya know.

by white angus on Jun 28, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I think so...

take a look at the gaps again. Personally I’d throw out FIP since it’s not as applicable in this situation and look at xFIP-. Morton and MacDonald are dead nuts on (ERA basically = xFIP). Correia and Maholm are outperforming xFIP slightly but that gap is easily explained with defense since they are pitched to contact guys. The only one that has a huge gap is Karstens. I think he is due for a regression but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him outperform his xFIP. Something to keep an eye on though is the innings totals. A lot of these guys could tire and performance could drop accordingly in the second half as the reach higher innings totals.

#AllTheBuntsAreBad!

by Slick1 on Jun 28, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions