Should The Pirates Substantially Raise Payroll Next Year?

Lots of young players not making a lot, and several higher priced veterans coming off the books. I’d also disagree that the attendance is high enough yet to get anywhere close to $70MM without greatly cutting back on the development/drafting philosophies which may or may not have change hoisted upon them with the next cba. The good news is they have fewer and fewer holes, with potential prospects coming up to fill some of them, so they could spend similar or slightly higher total dollars on fewer, higher end free agents, but I don’t see a big change. You want to keep the dollars available for the younger, better players who are starting to reach arbitration and their first big contracts, which should be a higher priority. Besides, as you pointed out, it remains to be seen if attendance will continue to rise, especially if/when ticket prices rise.

Please, no. There’s still so much baseball to play. I’m just starting to get my hopes up that, by some miracle, the Pirates may be able to sustain this level of competitiveness until the end of the season. Who knows? .500, or close to it. Why? Is it Clint Hurdle? Ray Searage? Natural progression of the core? The Starters waking up?

I want to see how the rooks do the rest of the season: D’Arnaud, Presley, Harrison, maybe Lincoln and one or two others. What’s going to happen at the trading deadline. Is someone going to knock our socks off with an offer we can’t refuse?

That Dodgers bankruptcy could sure get interesting. I have a feeling that we are about to learn a lot more about how MLB really operates. Could be SB Nation’s version of the OJ trial.

In short, there are a million reasons why I check Bucs Dugout several times a day. The size, shape, contents and spending plans of Bob Nutting’s Wallet are not among them.

if so, then presumably we should have a few million more to throw around. of course, that might end up in latin america instead of at the major league level.

Way too early for this type of talk, like a year or more too early. You don’t increase payroll just because you can, you wait until you have a reason. We aren’t going .500 this year, and we are going to move pieces at the deadline.

I’m not mistaken (which happens alot) Jose Reyes (just turned 28) will be a free agent.

I pray we don’t trade for him (unless somehow we can get an under the table deal done), but I’d love to throw whatever his market value + some will be for a 4-6 year deal.

Tulo (only a year younger somehow) just got a 10 year deal worth 157.75 million. The max it pays in one year is 20 Million from 2015-2019.

I say we offer Reyes 5 years worth 105-115 million with a low(er) basepay and a buttload of incentives.

He’s signed through 2016, he will put butts in the seats, we should compete for a playoff berth next year, and he will be around when the arms start coming up. If you really want to go crazy, sign him, then trade Chase D’Arnuad and another decent prospect (Robbie Grossman; Bryan Morris; Jeff Locke; ZVR; Cain?) and get a decent starter to jumpstart the process next year (make the trade in the offseason).

It’s my experience (without doing a whit of research) that young teams on the come often have a setback year before they really break through and stay competitive for awhile.

Next year could be ours.

I’d have to see what the free-agent market looked like this winter, but I’d hedge my bets toward 2013.

Let’s assume the Pirates deal Maholm, allow Snyder and Doumit to walk and cut Matt Diaz. It’s possible you could have 21/25 spots on the roster taken up by:
Tabata, Walker, Cutch, Pedro (starters)
Jones, Presley, Pearce, Cedeno-if they pick up his option, and McKenry/JJ/Fryer (bench)
Morton, McDonald, Correia, Karstens, Lincoln (starters)
Moskos, Watson, Veras, Resop, Meek, D.Cutch, Hammer (pen)
That leaves you trying to find starters (I guess) for 1B, SS, C and RF.

Let’s say Hanrahan and Karstens both get raises to $3.5M and they sign Cutch to a Jay Bruce-like deal that will give him $3.75M in the first year ($1M more than Bruce). Unless my math was wrong somewhere, those 21 guys would cost about $27.665M next year. How high can you really get their payroll? Doumit might very well be the best catcher on the market next year. We’d have to exercise both years of his option at once but maybe we get him to accept a deal for one year if we also pay him the $500K buyout, so he’s $7.75M. Maybe they go after Cuddyer to play first and give him a Berkman-like $8M deal. They target JJ Hardy, and sign him by doubling his salary from this year in a 3 year deal at $11.7M per. They sign Jason Kubel to play right with a 1 year deal at $7.5M.

Even after all of that, their payroll for next season would still “only” be $62.615M. I guess they could try to aquire a veteran starter instead of Brad Lincoln (or maybe extend Maholm) to get over $70M but it would be really tough. I wouldn’t hate seeing them try to fill out the roster next year with free agents (especially if none of the callups show much the rest of the way) but to get the payroll that high, they would essentially have to sign every single 2nd-tier free agent possible which is unlikely even if they WANTED to spend 70 mil.

If the Pirates decide to make a long term deal (say 5 years) with McCutcheon, then spending a little more money is worthwhile. The best way to spend money is to reward players from within, and keep your own star players.

With that said, picking up one or two veteran players to fill gaps next year is certainly a worthy endeavor. This would include keeping one of the veteran catchers on for another year if healthy…

What is the concern about spending more on payroll? That we may choose badly and waste money? That increased payroll means decreased draft budget? That adding high priced players will not necessarily improve the team (or attendance)?

I don’t see why they wouldn’t take a shot at getting better. I don’t want them to spending $5-7M on the Jeromy Burnitz and Lyle Overbay types that almost always are a waste of money either, but aren’t there other Free Agents out there that could help?

Here is a hypothetical question: If Albert Pujols would agree to a 6 year, $150MM deal to come to Pittsburgh, do you think they should sign him? To me, the answer is yes because he makes your team better, puts fans in seats, and is young enough that he should not fall apart before the end. I suspect a number of you will say no, however, so I am curious as to why.

I know that NH and Cutch are alledgedly in some sort of negotiations. I’m sure no one, including the two of them, knows how that will end, but I don’t even have a good guess. Do any of you guys want to make a guess as to what we might be paying Andrew next year? Will it be enough to have an impact on you discussion here? Is Hanrahan an option for a similar buy out of arbitration years?

the Pirates CAN and should raise payroll from current levels. The important part, however, is how the money is spent. Don’t raise payroll significantly for a one year stopgap player. We’ve seen what spending $5M on Overbay and $2M on Diaz has brought us.

If there is a FA at a necessary position (1B, C, SS) that can be a multi-year solution, then by all means, put out some money. But it MUST be a player that is a multi-year solution. 2012 is not the time for a 1 year fix player, unless we are talking of a trade deadline move next July for a competitve team.

Tie up the loose ends, like a Cutch extension, and work on long term solutions.

If we go under 500 we trade Maholm and whatever else we got laying around basically… Ok now let’s think about this. Say pirates become 6 or more games over 500 middle of July and are in first place in the division. They have to buy someone the fans would demand it almost. I would like Maholm to take the buyout at the end of the year and accept a new contract. 5 year 50 million. He says he wants to stay in Pitt and it willing to negotiate. Exchange some figures and if he stays I will buy a Maholm jersey. Doumit could renegotiate also bad year injury prone and so forth. I don’t think the Pirates salary should be near 70 million next year. 50 is more understanding!

One other factor you didn’t mention Charlie is what impact the deadline will have on next year’s payroll.

Let’s say the Pirates fall out of contention, but aren’t horrible (3-4 games under .500 in late July)…

A package of Hanrahan and Maholm (Provided they’re still performing) could bring a massive return for the team. This could change some of the dynamics as far as what we need to go after in the off-season and how much that will cost. There’s a ton of factors at play for the rest of this season that will determine next year’s payroll.

Shortstops
1. Jimmy Rollins (He has regressed, but should remain productive for 3-4 more seasons)
2. JJ Hardy
3. Furcal (Club option, but who knows with the situation in LAD)

Outfield
1. Beltran (2 year deal could be an interesting deal and make a statement) if he’d play RF.
2. Kubel
3. Ludwick
4. Cuddyer

SP

Not much on this front that I’ve seen… Edwin Jackson may not be a bad option. Dempster’s option may not be picked up, so there’s another decent choice. Obviously, the town would go nuts if CC Sabathia opted out of NYY and came to PIttsburgh lol. Lastly, and least likely.. Roy Oswalt? 16 million is alot for a pitcher with that back problem. I still think Philly takes him on again, but they could pull the rug from under his feet.

Just throwing some names out there for discussion.

We’ve reached the point where we’ve got to start talking about this [signing Free Agents and thus increasing payroll], haven’t we?

Not really. The best use of the off-season would have Huntington locking up McCutchen for his arbitration years and year one of his free agent period; looking additional dumpster finds; looking for trades that would help the team in the short- to medium-term. The Pirates will not have the money needed to sign a player making $10M to $15M per year. If those amounts seem like too much to pay for a player that would provide an upgrade to a player the Pirates now have, we need only to remind ourselves that the Pirates could pay $10M for Paul Maholm next year, Gary Mathews, Jr. ($12M in 2011), etc.

Potential Free Agent First Basemen (2012)

Lance Berkman STL
Russell Branyan LAA
Jorge Cantu SD
Prince Fielder MIL
Brad Hawpe SD
Eric Hinske ATL *
Ross Gload PHI
Nick Johnson CLE
Derrek Lee BAL
Xavier Nady ARI
David Ortiz BOS
Lyle Overbay PIT
Carlos Pena CHC
Albert Pujols STL
Jim Thome MIN

Potential Free Agent Outfielders (2012)

Bobby Abreu LAA *
Rick Ankiel WAS
Carlos Beltran NYM
Milton Bradley SEA
Pat Burrell SF
Mike Cameron BOS
Coco Crisp OAK
Michael Cuddyer MIN
Jack Cust SEA
Johnny Damon TB
David DeJesus OAK
J.D. Drew BOS
Jeff Francoeur KC *
Kosuke Fukudome CHC
Jonny Gomes CIN
Gabe Gross OAK
Vladimir Guerrero BAL
Carlos Guillen DET
Scott Hairston NYM
Willie Harris NYM
Raul Ibanez PHI
Conor Jackson OAK
Andruw Jones NYY
Austin Kearns CLE
Jason Kubel MIN
Ryan Ludwick SD
Hideki Matsui OAK
Nate McLouth ATL *
Jason Michaels HOU
Laynce Nix WAS
Magglio Ordonez DET
Juan Pierre CWS
Juan Rivera TOR
Cody Ross SF
Grady Sizemore CLE *
Matt Stairs WAS
Nick Swisher NYY *
Marcus Thames LAD
Josh Willingham OAK

Sadly, if the Free Agent is worth having, he’s also too expensive for the Pirates. If the Free Agent is too old, a big risk, lacks a high ceiling, then that Free Agent may and probably will turn out to be a waste of money (Overbay, Diaz, etc.).

The Pirates ought to set aside their money to pay for the stars they already have when it comes time to pay them. The team also ought to look for the opportunity to acquire high-ceiling prospects. The Pirates should spend significant money on a Free Agent only when the team confronts a special and too-good-to-be-true opportunity.

Can’t begin to describe the doom and gloom last year around this time. Now with the turnaround, the discussions are centered around Reyes, Pujols, FAs, etc. I think the pendulum may have swung a bit too far onto the other side.

The starting rotation is arguably overperforming. Would you say that Morton and McDonald are putting in consistent performances lately? Can we afford Maholm’s option next year? Who will replace Karstens and his 6 innings eventually. That’s 80% of the rotation that still have question marks.

As for hitting, what do we really have with Tabata, Alvarez, Jones, Cedeno and Tony Sanchez? Are their current numbers acceptable? Would you be willing to accept similar numbers in 2012? Will Sanchez develop?

2013 should be the goal and more patience is needed for 2012. As to increasing payroll, NH’s first obvious move is to sign McCutchen. Man, I hope McCutchen is willing to stay… Can we even name our 2nd best hitter as of now?

Taillon dominate tonight. If we don’t make a huge splash in the FA market (DO NOT SELL THE FARM!), can we just sit on our hands until 2014.

one sentiment I see here quite a bit is that the pirates can’t sign a big money free agent because that would crowd out the money needed to extend the young players currently in the system… ie: signing jose reyes to a big contract would mean that walker or tabata or alvarez or someone would end up walking because the pirates couldn’t afford him…

… but what if pedro turns out to be a complete flop? what if the rest of the supporting cast doesn’t play well enough to merit a substantial amount of money? … what if there’s no contract extensions to crowd out? would we rather watch a pirates team starring andrew mccutchen in the brian giles/jason bay role or would we rather have a second superstar on the roster?

the pirates have practically no money allocated for the next few years… they should have space on the payroll to afford to bring in a big money free agent for the immediate future… sure, it might mean that the pirates can’t re-sign someone else, but maybe we should cross that bridge when we come to it? besides, that seems an awful lot like a best case scenario to me, where the core four and perhaps a few other guys turn out like we all hope they will… and then the pirates would have the problem of having too much talent? seems like a nice problem to have…

besides, if the team waits ‘til they’re “good” to add another piece, it’s either going to be a trade acquisition who’ll (probably) cost valuable prospects or a free agent who will either be a middling pickup along the lines of lyle overbay and matt diaz or (if they’re any good) will demand a long and expensive contract, a la jose reyes… seems like they might as well just make the splash now…