Chicken Wire, Duct Tape & Spit: Assessing The Pirates
by David Todd on Jun 30, 2011 12:33 PM EDT
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PrintThat's Clint Hurdle's new favorite phrase when asked how the Pirates are winning these days.
As WTM's signature line says, "You are entitled to you're own opinions, not your own facts." I think some Pirates fans have started bordering on irrationality when it comes to assessing the Pirates' performance.
Last night I was listening to a talk show host talk about how frustrated he was with last night's loss. That's fine. I can see some - not much, but some - validity in that. Unfortunately, it takes me awhile to get home from the postgame show and I kept listening. For 25 minutes. The host and various callers were talking about all the Pirates' baserunning mistakes (see below) and finally he just said he felt like the Pirates "crapped away" the game and also suggested they did the same against Boston on Sunday. At that point I had to turn it off. When I got home I couldn't help myself, so I got on BD and saw some similar arguments. I decided to sleep on it and see how it felt in the morning. The same.
First some facts. The Pirates are a bit "lucky" to be 40-39. Their Pythagorean Record based on runs scored and runs against suggests they should be 38-41. Also, they are 13-8 in one-run games. While Bob Walk, among others, thinks one-run wins are a sign of a good bullpen, history would suggest they aren't. Again it is more likely the team has been a little lucky and will probably regress back toward .500 as the season progresses.
Looking at specific statistics, at the plate the Pirates are 14th in the NL in wOBA and K%. They are 15th in SLG and ISO. They are 8th in BABIP. On the mound they are 12th in FIP, 15 in xFIP, but 6th in ERA. As you might suspect from those numbers, the staff is dead last in K/9 because the starters can't strike anybody out, averaging only 5.4K/9.
Those numbers aren't a formula for success. They aren't even a formula for a .500 team. The reality is the Pirates have the fourth-best BABIP against, the sixth best LOB%-against, virtually identical to 2-5, and have played very well defensively. That and some luck have the team right around .500 at the half way point.
Now let's look at the most recent five games against Boston and Toronto. The scores were as follows: vs. Boston W 3-1, W 6-4, L 4-2. vs. Toronto W 7-6, L 2-1.
During the Boston series the Red Sox had more hits, walks and home runs, the PIrates struck out more often and commited more errors. The difference in the series was the Red Sox went an amazing 1-for-26 with runners in scoring position and left 29 men on base. The Pirates were 6-for-26 with RISP and left 23 men on base. In Sunday's game spefically, the Pirates walked six, committed four errors and got out-hit. Probably the more appropriate assessment is they played like crap, not that they crapped it away. Yet, in the end they won two of the three games in the series.
So far in Toronto the peripherals are almost comically against the Pirates. The Jays have 11 extra base hits and five home runs. The Pirates three extra-base hits and two home runs. Pirates batters have struck out 20 times to the Jays' six, but they have out-walked them seven to five. Again the difference has been at bats with RISP where the Pirates are 5-for-13, leaving 12 on base and the Jays are 1-for-15, leaving 13 on base. Sure, last night the Pirates had three men thrown out on the bases*, but you might forget the Jays had two, including their leadoff batter in the first when they later got a walk and a single.
(*I'm amazed how many people are killing the Pirates for their baserunning last night. Let's look at the three outs on the bases:
1.) Walker thrown out at the plate on a chopper to third.
Situation: There were runners on first and third with no outs in the fifth of a scoreless game, and the Pirates had managed two hits against Brandon Morrow, a strikeout pitcher. Matt Diaz was at the plate and Ronny Cedeno and Eric Fryer were on deck.
Assessment: Walker was running on contact and the ball was a chopper to the left side. This was a coaching-staff decision and I generally agree. If you get thrown out you still have two on and a runner in scoring position. Bautista made a good play. I think it was the right decision, with the bottom of the order coming up. Walker wasn't running on his own.
2.) Diaz hung up between second and third.
Situation: Still a scoreless game in the fifth, now with Lyle Overbay on second and Diaz on first and one out. Cedeno bloops a single to right-center. Overbay scores and Diaz is hung up in a rundown between second and third. He is tagged out while Cedeno moves to second.
Assessment: This could have been a smart play or a bonehead play depending on what Diaz was seeing. Unfortunately I couldn't tell from the replays or the announcers. If Overbay was going to score easily and there was no chance of a play at the plate, then Diaz made a bad mistake. However, if Overbay, a slow runner, didn't get a good read on the bloop and the Jays may have had a shot at him at home, Diaz did exactly the right thing in rounding the bag and forcing the cutoff man to make a decision with only one out. In a scoreless game in that situation the Pirates would absolutely give up an out to guarantee the run scoring. Often in this situation the Pirates airmail the cutoff man and the team on the bases gets the best of both worlds, the run scoring and the runner to third. In this case the Jays made the play, but Diaz stayed alive long enough to allow Cedeno to get to second. Again, not a clear answer.
3.) Jones gets picked off first after breaking for second.
Sitaution: Garrett Jones on first with two outs and Andrew McCutchen at the plate, top of the eighth, down 2-1.
Assessment: On a 2-2 pitch Jones gets the steal sign, breaks for second and slips. Realizing he will be out by 20 feet, he reverses course and tries to get back to the bag, but is picked off by a good throw by Jose Molina. Criticizing this is just asinine. Yes, of course it's a bad play to slip when breaking for second, but things happen. This was not a mental error or a decision by Jones "to inexplicably stop" as one poster called it. Jones actually made a good decision once he slipped and Molina made a good throw. Again this was a coaching-staff decision to have him running. If he gets thrown out stealing Cutch leads off the ninth. If he makes it, there is a man in scoring position for Cutch. I have no problem with that thinking. A single by Cutch in that situation doesn't score Jones from first.)
So in the five games against the Sox and Jays thus far, the opposition has gone 2-for-41 (.049) with RISP and left 42 men on base. Is some of that because of good Pirates pitching? Sure. Is it going to continue at that pace? Not a chance in hell.
The larger point is Pirates fans should be doing backflips that they are 3-2 in these five games and 40-39 overall. The pitching staff has been good, though the starters have, as expected, been unable to sustain their fantastic first two months. The bullpen continues to be excellent, but the offense is and should be a major concern. The Bucs need to stay in touch until the all-star break and then get Alvarez, Tabata, Pearce and Doumit back and have them perform up to levels that they have seen in the past in order to generate more offense.
If that doesn't happen and the team puts up offensive numbers like this in the second half and the pitching drops off at all, their record is much more likely to be closer to 10 games under .500 than the 40-39 mark they are sporting right now.
When Clint Hurdle says it's chicken wire, duct tape and spit, he is showing that he and the front office understand that while injuries have forced the Pirates to rely on a major league-high 42 players, the team needs to play better to sustain even this level of performance based on their peripherals. The suggestion from some that the Pirates are blowing games that they should win just shows that they are looking through a very Pirates-colored prism. If things don't change they better find a smoke machine and some mirrors as well.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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i was also listening to that same radio host last night from time to time and had the same reaction you had, though probably with more swearing. He kept going on and on about how he’d rather have them lose by 5 then lose by 1, which makes absolutely no sense to me. Why the hell would you rather get blown out then have at least a chance to win the game? Like you said, win% in one run games tends to even out to around .500 for any team, whether they’re really good or really bad. You don’t want your team to keep getting blown out because that just shows a larger disparity in talent.
It’s great right now that the Pirates are still somehow above .500, and it would absolutely be awesome if that were to continue through the rest of the season. But I wouldn’t bet on it, considering the stats you laid out. Before the season I had a feeling they’d win somewhere between 70-75 games, and nothing this season had made me rethink that, honestly.
He kept going on and on about how he’d rather have them lose by 5 then lose by 1, which makes absolutely no sense to me. Why the hell would you rather get blown out then have at least a chance to win the game?
I know this is counter-intuitive, but I feel the same way as the host.
I mean, of course I’d rather have the team in the game, and have a chance to win right down to the end. But games lost like that just feel like worse defeats than the occasional blowout, because I know we had a chance to win it.
Basically, I know logically that the Pirates won’t win every game. So when the opponent hangs a big number on us, my brain kind of goes “Okay, this is just one we have to hang in the L column” and kind of gets over it. But when it’s a nail-biter, you start thinking about every little break that might have gone the other way.
Or, to use a food metaphor, it’s kind of like how if someone just walked into your office and said “Hey, we don’t have any cake” you wouldn’t really be that disappointed because you probably weren’t expecting cake. But if someone brought a cake in, dangled it under your nose, and then took it away before you could eat it, it would be seriously infuriating.
I would rather lose the World Series by one run than get blown out in 162 games.
by MarkInDallas on Jun 30, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
well yes, of course
Maybe I wasn’t clear. The rational part of my brain would rather have us lose close, because I understand that anytime it’s close you have a better chance to win.
I’m just saying that from a completely fan-centric-emotional point of view, the blowouts are (generally) easier to swallow than the one-run losses.
It goes the other way, too (at least for me). While it’s really fun to blow a team out of the water, I think I get more personal satisfaction when the team wins a really close, tense game.
Essentially I’m saying that close games “feel” more important, so the wins seem like bigger accomplishments and the losses sting a little bit more.
Why talk about cake
when we already have Pai?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 30, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with your last two baserunning blunders...
First the Diaz situation…the play was in front of him as he was running for second. He had ample time to realize the ball could have been cutoff. He either didn’t notice the cutoff man, or didn’t realize that the ball could be cutoff. That’s on him. I understand the need to be aggressive, but I also understand the importance of opportunities with RISP. Diaz’s failure to stay on second cost the Pirates an out, but more importantly for a team that isn’t very solid with RISP, an extra at-bat with RISP.
Second the Jones situation…while nobody should blame Jones for going, since he was sent, there is no reason to give Jones a free pass for tripping over his own two feet. I understand that “things happen”, but honestly Jones needs to keep his feet. Is it fair to say he stopped, no. Is it fair to blame Jones for the loss, no. Is if fair to say WTF when he falls and gets thrown out at first, yes.
by pantherboy on Jun 30, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Of course....
Diaz and every player knows a ball can be cutoff or thrown in behind him.
The ball was hit to right center. The play at the plate is not in front of him it is behind him. The first baseman Adam Lind is nowhere near his view when he hits 2nd and Nick Leyva is concerned with Overbay rounding third. He’s on his own and it is not in front of him, the play is going to take place behind him and his job was to look at Overbay, not the cutoff man, and assess how easily he was going to score and then decide how to round the bag. I didn’t say he was right or wrong. You saying he was wrong may be the right answer, but you didn’t provide any proof to back that up.
The Jones point isn’t worth debating. If you want to yell at a guy for slipping, have at it.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
He shouldn't be looking at the plate...
that play means nothing to Diaz.
Diaz needs to be concerned with two things…second base and third base/third base coach. That would entail making sure the throw isn’t cut off. Diaz didn’t do that, therefore he’s wrong.
The basehit was to center, Diaz is on first. If he can’t see how the defense is shifting, then he is at fault. If he sees how the defense is shifting and ignores it, it’s his fault.
And I think you’re getting a little emotional on the Jones situation. I don’t want to yell at a guy for slipping, but I don’t see the big deal about Pirate fans being frustrated a player tripped. I specifically mentioned he didn’t blow the game and that he didn’t stop in the baseline.
Somebody is to blame for Jones falling…it wasn’t the coaches, the Blue Jays, the Pirates, etc….therefore it is only one person’s fault. Again, I don’t think he should be blamed for more than he did, falling down. I also think it’s fair to hope for a major leaguer to not trip while breaking for first, but it is what it is.
Not falling down is part of the skills of being a baseball player.
by MarkInDallas on Jun 30, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s actually the elusive sixth tool.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jun 30, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The ball was to right, just over the 2B. He should definitely know how the d is positioned but the key part is how is the throw, which he can’t see.
What I mean by positioned is by looking at the SS or the 2B when he is running
that’s all he really needs to see on a ball hit into centerish.
Even in D2 we were taught about this scenario, and you need to account for it as a runner.
You mean for the throw?
SS was at second base and I’m sure the 2B was still in short RF. He has to see if the throw is low enough to be cut off, which he can’t see if it’s behind him. It wasn’t in center, it was in right field.
I would imagine pantherboy...
has never tripped
Diaz's tools as a major league player
I’m glad this was mentioned. Diaz made TWO outs in that inning. With men on 1st and 3rd and NO outs, he hit his usual weak grounder (he is fourth on the team in Grounding Into DPs) that did not score a run (and produced an out), then got caught on the base paths.
He is a liability to the team.
Here are stats I have mentioned before:
As of July 7 Diaz is 7th in number of AT BATs. But he is 10th in RBIs, 11th in walks, 11th in runs, has NO homeruns, AND he is 4th in grounding into double plays! PLUS he has no arm, is an average fielder and has average speed at best. Watch him at bat. NO energy. Leans back before every pitch and swings with his arms. Results: pop ups and ground balls. His only triple was a pop fly that bounced over the Toronto fielder on the hard turf. He is a waste, no threat whatsoever at the plate. He cannot compare to Paul or Jones for what they bring to the table, at bat and in the field.
by pittsburghdad6 on Jul 9, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
No problem with the Walker running play
He has very little time to judge the speed of that ball. Granted, they probably only had a play at first which would have left us with 2nd and 3rd and one out, but if he misjudges the speed of that ball and doesn’t run, it would be a disaster if the Jay’s turn two and Walker doesn’t move. This is all assuming he even had the option of returning to third.
by ATribeCalledGreg on Jun 30, 2011 1:36 PM EDT reply actions
On the whole, I’d say the nearest analogy for this team is the 2003 Royals. But at least KC fans had fun that year.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Yep
That’s why I applaud the Harrison, Presely, d’Arnaud debuts, the Wood experiment, and any other forward-looking decision the team has made and will make this year. The sad fact of the matter is that the 18-year streak could force the front office to not trade any veterans for prospects because these trades could and likely would appear to be salary dumps to many fans and blinkered sports journalists. Again, the smart move for the Pirates can be a dumb PR move.
s.zielinski
The sad fact of the matter is that the 18-year streak could force the front office to not trade any veterans for prospects because these trades could and likely would appear to be salary dumps to many fans and blinkered sports journalists.
This front office has shown time and again that they don’t particularly care about that.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
by Stealing First Base on Jul 1, 2011 4:08 AM EDT up reply actions
We’re not having fun this season? I am. Maybe in general, we’re just so jaded that a decent season doesn’t have much effect.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 30, 2011 2:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I meant having fun as part of the analogy. Didn’t mean to imply this isn’t fun.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
At Bucs Dugout we have a simple motto: it’s your party, you deserve to enjoy it, but how are you going to enjoy the party if you’re worried about whether the shrimp cocktail has been sitting out too long, or is there enough ice, or do the guests think the party is lame, or are they stealing stuff, or are they going through the medicine cabinet because they’re nosy or because they think they might find something that’ll give them a rocking buzz? I used to do that last thing. Not anymore. Clean and sober.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jun 30, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you're gonna use the phrase, go with the Original (accept no substitutes!)
.
.
.
.
(Although that show was kinda funny sometimes, too…)
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 30, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The Pirates have weak points in their rotation
Maholm, Correia and Karstens are all performing well beyond what we would have predicted six months back. They are not pitchers around which one would want to build a starting rotation. And it is these very pitchers who have helped to push the Pirates to the McClatchy Line.
For me, I’ll just enjoy the show while it lasts but I’ll also look towards the future, which appears much brighter than the horizon we have directly before us.
s.zielinski
And their peripherals would indicate...
that the only starter(s) on the staff likely to repeat his first half ERA is McDonald…and possibly Correia.
You obviously haven't looked at Morton's numbers.
unless you are talking about Morton’s 1st half numbers from last year.
Yeah, Morton's doing exactly what his peripherals say he should be.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
by Stealing First Base on Jul 1, 2011 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Awesome writeup
Perfect criticism…this is why people should come to blogs…True understanding of the games tactics and situations, well done sir. rec’d
I love
you. I’ve been trying to say this for weeks that we’re getting lucky as hell, but no one will listen.
Rec’d, and if I can figure out how to rec it more I will.
This is the real reason why we shouldn’t sell anything remotely valuable on the farm to get better this year.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jun 30, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I cede my Rec to the gentleman from West Virginia
Think that will work?
by Wizard of Woz on Jun 30, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I've been listening to you. We are on the same page.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Pirates have no excuse to lose any game.
I mean they are from Pittsburgh right? Our teams should be better right? Either that or they aren’t that good, so they have to win those games, that’s another good logical argument.
I’ve been very happy with this years team. If we had better numbers pitching and Alvarez was here hitting well then the argument that they should be better would be valid. This is a young, beaten up team that is finding ways to win. The Baseball season is too long for a team to do that a whole season. The hope for this team is that they keep this run up long enough for some help to come in and even the odds a bit.
IF Pedro comes back playing well, and either Ross or Lincoln come up and play well the rest of the way this team has a good chance.
The good sign is that this team should be a nearly .500 team as is. If we get a little help we can pull it off.
I am almost sure the Pirates will regress and end up with 70-75 wins.
However, I’m tempted to nitpick a couple of your assertions.
I think you’re overstating the Pirates’ luck with RS/RA, which is 298/310, and a 3-game difference according to the Pythagorean record, as you pointed out. The Buccos are right in line with what they’ve earned. Hardly anyone is gonna end the season with their W/L matching the Pythagorean W/L perfectly.
I’m a fan of the Blue Jackets, and for two straight years, I’ve watched them jump out to a great record the first month or two, always watching that damn GS/GA difference dip further into the negatives, knowing we were not as good as we looked. It has played out that way for two seasons with the Jackets ending the season near the bottom of the standings. The Pirates don’t look like that. They’re about as good as they look.
It is terrible how much we strike out. However, that’s already “bearing fruit” if you will, because we’re 12th in runs scored in the NL. With injuries healing up and more guys hitting the more positive side of their realistic projections, I think our runs scored will improve in the season’s second half.
Meanwhile, I agree with you about the pitching. While our strikeouts are low, our BBs and HR allowed are merely middle of the road, so they can’t make up for that. Besides that, there’s no way guys like Correia, Karstens and Maholm can keep up their quality all season, just based on career numbers.
But I wouldn’t say we’ve gotten lucky so far. The Pirates have played about as well as a team that’s a game or two of .500. They’ve “earned” it.
In other words
I don’t think we’ve gotten all that lucky so far. However, I do think our overall quality of play is unsustainable, considering our roster. (I guess that’s why I said “nitpick.”)
Great analysis, one correction...
Jones was in fact at fault since Hurdle said that he took the green light off and Jones missed the sign. They did not want him running on that pitch.
by nycbucsfan on Jun 30, 2011 2:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hadn't seen that...
thanks for the heads up. Have a link?
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Hope this works...
But if not it’s in today’s PPG piece on the game.
by nycbucsfan on Jun 30, 2011 3:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Chicken Wire, Duct Tape & Spit
Sounds like a fun night
No Kidding...
To take Slim Pickens out of contest: “Shoot, a fella’ could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff.”
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
I think it would be AWESOME to have
a Slim Pickens contest!
.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 30, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
They actually had to re-dub that line.
Originally, he said, "Shoot, a fella’ could have a pretty good weekend in Dallas with all that stuff." But JFK was assassinated during post-production, so they had to redo the audio.
Yep!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jun 30, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for laying this out.
This is not a .500 team, or even close to a .500 team.
The only people that don’t believe that are those that don’t believe in SABR.
If you say you believe/know this isn’t a .500 team, you are ridiculed as not being a fan, when in fact all you are doing is not being a mindless blind yinzer. I love the Pirates just as much as the next guy, and in fact probably more, but I’m being realistic about our situation.
The solution is to tune out 99% of Pirates fans as they have no idea what they are talking about and suddenly everybody in Pittsburgh is an expert on baseball because the team is 1 game over .500 50% of the way through a season.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
This is not a .500 team, or even close to a .500 team
Really? Last I checked we were a game over .500. I know you SABR guys like your stats but how can you argue facts? I’m not saying that they will end up a .500 team, but right now they are…do I think they will slide a little, yeah, but they played .500 the first half I’m hoping they can do the same in the second… I don’t care how they do it, or what their stats look like. Just gimme the results.
by grambo119 on Jun 30, 2011 3:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's close to a .500 team
Well, I’m one of those SABR guys…before the season replacementlevelyankees ran my player projections thru Diamond Mind a few thousand times, and the Pirates averaged a 72-90 record, .444.
If we assume that everyone performs at their pre-season projection for the rest of the season, and add it to the 40-39 already in the books, that’s 77-85 for the year. A hell of a lot better than 2010.
by Brian Cartwright on Jun 30, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I find this funny....
They aren’t a .500 team, or even close to a .500 team.
But here’s the rub…umm..they are actually above .500.
Whether they will stay that way or not is an open question, but that they ARE currently a .500 team is beyond dispute, because there record shows it.
I really enjoy reading about the advanced metrics in the game and think they’ve added a lot, but I think this is why it is sometimes ridiculed.
The Pirates are currently a .500 team due to a lot of luck...especially pitching-wise...
Maholm, for instance, career BAA prior to this season was around .290…this year teams are hitting .231 against him. BABIP career about .320, this season .256.
Karstens, career BAA prior to this season also about .290…this year .242. BABIP career about .300, this season .249.
Morton has a WHIP of 1.523 and an ERA of 3.77. Anybody realize how out of whack the ERA is. How many starters in the league have a higher WHIP? Four, and one of them is McDonald (1.588 WHIP and 4.52 ERA). the others…J.A. Happ (1.540 and 5.54), Javier Vasquez (1.584 and 5.83) and Jake Westbrook (1.656 and 5.32).
If any or all four pitch to their peripheral numbers the rest of the season, they are going to give up a lot more runs than they have been. The only one I can really pin something on is Correia, who has cut his BB/9 almost in half. That’s something he has control over.
How many people realize that Karstens is actually striking out more batters per 9 innings than any of our other starters than McDonald? There are 61 pitchers currently eligible (by IP) for the ERA title in the NL. As I mentioned, Karstens is 2nd among our starters in K/9…but he’s 45th out of 61 in the NL.
If this team is to play .500 for the rest of the season, they better get a hell of a lot more offense going than they have now, because the numbers say the pitching isn’t as good as many think.
Morton's gonna allow hits.
He’s not a strike out guy. And sometimes he’s gonna get those bloops all day when he’s unlucky and we’ll lose.
But as long as he keeps the ground balls and doesn’t walk people, he’ll be a good starter.
Thank you, Steve
This is exactly why people who dig sabermetrics (myself included) get ridiculed.
You’re missing the forest for the trees, Kosstic. We are a .500 team. These are facts.
If you want to posit that this level of play is unsustainable, fine. That’s what David did, and I agree with most of his post.
But when you say things like
The only people that don’t believe that are those that don’t believe in SABR.
well that’s just ridiculous. SABR is not something to be “believed” or not “believed,” it’s just different ways to analyze what has already happened.
Sabermetrics are an amazing and fascinating way of making sense of trends, and are often a remarkably accurate predictive tool. But predictions are not law.
~ ~ ~
Let’s imagine a theoretical team with a very unusual trend: No one on this team gets any hits after the 1st inning. BUT in the first inning every single player hits a single in a row. 9 singles, back-to-back. After those nine hits the 1-2-3 guys strike out, and from then on the team gathers no hits. As a result, the team basically scores seven runs per game, all in the first inning.
This is the pattern every single game. (Bear with me, it’s just a thought exercise.)
Analyzing this theoretical team sabermetrically, they would look pretty bad. Everyone on the team bats exactly .250 (assuming no extra-inning games). Their ISO is zero. They are doing well precisely because they hit astronomically well with runners in scoring position (approximately .700 with RISP).
They have an average pitching staff, but seven runs a game carries them to the playoffs and eventually the World Series, which they win.
Would it still count, even though they won in a completely improbable and statistically unlikely way? Of course it would.
~ ~ ~
Now the obvious rebuttal here is that such a team would never exist, and a hundred years of games of evidence suggests patterns and norms that most teams follow. But can anyone prove that such a team and season couldn’t theoretically happen? No. It’s within the realm of possible outcomes.
My point of all this is that yes, sabermetrics and statistics in general can really help us understand what happened and predict what will happen next. But when you treat them like law, you defeat their purpose.
by Garrett122 on Jun 30, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
On this team...
9 singles in a row will get at least one guy thrown out on the bases…probably the plate.
by Thunder on Jun 30, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
thanks
for really addressing the point.
(And by the way, no one gets thrown out. Each single is a solidly struck line drive which lands between the CF and LF. Everyone on my team has exceptional speed but they are also exceptionally conservative on the basepaths, preferring to go station-to-station. The first 8 singles bring in five runs but leave the bases loaded. On the 9th single they go crazy and the guy from second scores, leaving them with 7 runs and two men on. Everyone else strikes out. Sorry — my imaginary team, my rules.)
Obviously...
it wasn’t meant to address the point ;)
Just look at the 1960 team
for an example of what you are talking about. Their amount of comebacks and close games were off the charts. Although it is a small sample, the 1960 World Series is the best example of why one needs to look at intangibles and not just stats.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Jun 30, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
-28 run differential in WS
THERE IS NO WAY THE 1960 PIRATES ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS OR ANYTHING CLOSE
by Mr. E on Jun 30, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd for awesomeness.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 1, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks Central
for providing a real-world example of what I needed a goofy metaphor to explain.
Thanks, Mr. E, for getting it.
Well, yeah
Those 40 wins are in the bank, no one is disputing that.
The question is how do we expect the next 83 games to go? I wouldn’t assume that this is a .500 team simply because they’ve managed to play .500 ball for 79 games.
or maybe
we aren’t so blind as to think the team of June is the team going forward. Maybe we have our cleanup hitter, top bench bat, starting C, leadoff man, #3 SP coming back soon. But whatever works for you
Damned if yinz do, damned if yinz don't
So let me get this straight. The “yinzers” are criticized when they get upset as the team loses 105 games because they don’t understand the big picture. The “yinzers” also get crticized when they get excited as the team plays .500 baseball (and they have the audacity to, ya know, think the team can keep playing .500 baseball).
Apparently they can’t win for yinz’in.
So do you think this team is going to finish .500 or better?
Because I don’t think it will. Sorry if that offends you.
Doesn't matter
I wasn’t taking a stand one way or another. Just not a fan of diminishing people’s hopes and using demeaning terms like “yinzer” just because the general fan base is excited about the Pirates.
I also don’t think it’s cold hard fact that this team WON’T finish over .500. WILL they? Probably not. I guess the stats don’t support it and the past 18 years definitely don’t support it. But that doesn’t mean it won’t or can’t happen. They’ll open July at or above .500, and that is one of the best opportunities we’ve had in a long long time.
I just don’t buy into the superiority complex every time people have emotions.
Just not a fan of diminishing people’s hopes
You should probably go to a different forum.
I also don’t think it’s cold hard fact that this team WON’T finish over .500
Of course not, its in the future, and the future is allegedly really hard to predict.
I guess the stats don’t support it
True and relavant, unlike
the past 18 years definitely don’t support it.
I just don’t buy into the superiority complex every time people have emotions.
You are on an internet sports site, participating in a discussion with fans of a team that has been losing for 18 years. Superiority complex and ridicule are often all we have. That, and logic, which you also are apparently offended by. Why not try this site.
by Wizard of Woz on Jul 1, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Awesome
great read. agree with you fully. i was irk’d with that talk show host as well. rec’d
I don't know who the host was, but obviously he doesn't really think that.
People call into talk shows a lot more when things are exciting and it could have gone either way. People love to play the what if game and feel they have a new take on what might have happened if such and such had gone their way.
Caller to the Fan this morning summed up what this teams needs, and that is to work on base running. Too many base running blunders cost us game. Last night, and that error against the Red Sox when Jones rounded third half way then was told to go back. Running bases should be one of the easier things to do during the game.
Yes, we need to work on not stumbling, and not playing on astro turf. DONE! Diaz made the only blunder and even then it was a very small one as far as baserunning errors go.
Ronny Cedeno, 1 SB, 5 CS. and that’s not including some of the other stupid stuff he does. When he gets on base, Hurdle should have a boat anchor attached to his feet.
is this a crit of Ronny or Clint or both??
wasn’t the hit and run on? yes, Ronny initially blew the sign, Toronto was paying attention, and pitched out. Clint did not adjust to a Ronny flub.
#31 All Day...
Yeah, Ronny was a dead duck on that play, I remember because of the throw by Arencibia..peeeeeerrrrrrrfffect.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jul 10, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=77fM_9w7mBU
Just replace “Manny” with “Ronny”
Coaching baserunning won’t help him anyways. Buying him this possibly will…
I dunno, this might make the problem worse.
“Why the f—- didn’t Ronny run to second on that DP? He was forced, for Christ’s sake!”
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
I love lots of guys. - leaflover4ever
Posts like this are the reason a lot of people don't like "statheads"
Yea, the stats say they shouldn’t have the record that they have, and they shouldn’t be winning the games that they are. But they ARE winning those games. I’m not going to sit here and mope about how shitty their stats are, because when I’m watching the Pittsburgh Pirates play baseball, I want them to win, and I want to be excited about the team. Right now they are winning, and right now I am excited.
Yea, we have a lot of bad players, and yea, we’ve gotten pretty lucky. But this is sports, not science. If stats perfectly predicted how many games a team would win, there would be no reason to play the games. The GM and manager both recognize that with the way the team is playing right now, they don’t have a great chance of staying above .500, and I understand it as well.
But I’m not going to let it keep me from being excited to watch this Pittsburgh Pirates baseball team, and I’m sure as hell not going to try to convince other people that they shouldn’t be excited.
Nobody is trying...
to convince anybody not to be excited. At least I’m not. I’m also not denying the facts of the performance to date. They are what they are.
The point, generally, is the team is most likely going to have to play better going forward to maintain this pace and stay in the race.
Nobody’s moping and I have repeated many times that Clint Hurdle’s non-quantifiable presence as a leader and the environment he has created has made a very positive contribution to the franchise.
Pretty sure you have a strawman there.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
"The suggestion from some that the Pirates are blowing games that they should win just shows that the are looking through a very Pirates-colored prism"
“I think some Pirates fans have started bordering on irrationality when it comes to assessing the Pirates’ performance.”
Part of being a fan is being irrational about your team. You are trying to convince people that we should take a step back, look at the bad stats, and temper our excitement, because the wins are going to dry up.
Sure it's fine...
to be irrational. I’ve been there. But for me that is in front of the tv or at a game with friends and having a beer in my hand.
If you are going to converse on a message, a more informed conversation is generally a better route.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
If you want to believe that
start arguing that the umps are screwing us and our Pitcher’s K/9 would be at least 1 higher if not for this. We’d also not K as much, BB and hit more, and that we are really a >.500 team! And now that we are hanging around anyways the umps will respect us more in the second half.
They are using advanced stats to say we can't sustain winning
This argument skews our stats enough so that doubters would have to agree we will keep winning.
Teams have in the past
played ‘over their heads’ for an entire season. Such is likely what it will take for the Bucs to sustain. Nonetheless, this is fun and a monumental second half collapse would be required to negate the fun. Good and bad are relative — they only mean as a function of each other. 18 down = this heap big fun.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
Camoseven remain positive!
This site is so full of posters with negative spin it’s pathetic. They know everything, and all of these experts predicted 70 wins or less. But a few of us know the Bucco’s will not settle for .500 this year, but they will battle until the last weekend of the season for the division!
Still
Wouldn’t it help to acquire a legitimate baserunning coach (someone like Davy Lopes comes to mind) to try to improve that aspect of the game? Who is responsible for that on the Pirates, anyway?
by Central*Scrutinizer on Jun 30, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Weighing in
I watch a lot of other games since I live on the west coast, and can’t see most of the Pirates games.
What Diaz did seems to be happening every night between both 2nd and 3rd, and between 1st and 2nd. It seems that the idea is to make sure that run scores and force the cutoff man to not only conced the run, but to make a good play te get the runner. It seems to be a risk they are considering wothwhile.
Walker breaking for home is also common. Its your basic contact play, go on anything not hit to the pitcher. I don’t know the percentages at the pro level, but a study of high school baseball showed that the runner scored over 80% of the time. It makes more sense with that runner on 1B as well.
Garrett Jones had the only mistake if he missed a sign, and boy was he close to getting back in there. It took a perfect throw and tag.
On statistics
The problem I have with “statheads” is that they’ve forgotten that statistics only tell us what has happened in the past. While they can be a useful indication of what will come in the future they are not air tight and they are not perfect. Statistics can not account for learning, adjusting or luck. Consequently anything can happen.
Let me repeat. Anything Can Happen.
It is not out side the realm of the possible that this year’s Bucs will win the World Series. It is unlikely in the extreme but it is possible. Hell in our division all we need is for the Pirates to hit a hot streak at the end of season while the couple teams in front of us go stone cold. Once you hit the playoffs anything is possible again.
The statistical analysis of baseball offers a deeper understanding of what is going on in front of us. Far deeper than any other sport. But statistics are descriptive not predictive. The greatest con men of all time have managed to make people forget that.
Do I believe the Pirates will win the division? No
Will they make a run at the playoffs? Unlikely
Do they have a legitimate shot at breaking the streak of futility? I believe there is a reasonable chance.
And statistics can’t change that because they can’t predict the future.
Peace
JP
oof
But statistics are descriptive not predictive.
This is so wrong that I don’t know where to begin.
that's a bit harsh
phlipside pointed out in his post that statistics can be very useful. But he’s correct in that no statistic can 100% predict future outcomes. (if they could, we could all be making a lot of money at casinos.)
So yes, it’s incorrect to say “statistics are not predictive,” because the definition of “predictive” means “aiding in predictions.” But it would be correct to say “Statistics are not guarantees of future performance,” which I think is closer to what he meant (if I may presume.)
Precisely right
Perhaps the better word might be prescriptive. Statistics never give you better than a likelihood. They do NOT predict future performance they merely describe likelihoods. In that sense they are not predictive.
Peace
JP
agreed
if you go off of expected stats, it means you can never improve, so why even bother showing up at the ballpark.
by white angus on Jun 30, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I have never gotten into a car accident. Stats say that I probably will at some point, and that if it is serious enough, wearing a seat belt will increase the odds of surviving or being less seriously injured. Sometimes, people experience more traumatic or even lethal injuries because of a seat belt. Should I align with the stats that say I should wear a seat belt, or with my current performance?
by Wizard of Woz on Jul 1, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Great post, dtoddwin
Run differential only begins to tell the story. We’re two games over that, but as you implied with your follow-up commentary, the Pirates’ peripherals don’t even support their runs scored/runs allowed totals. Baseball Prospectus shows expected wins based on peripherals, and the Pirates aren’t just 2 games over their Pythagorean, but they’re 6.5 games over what their underlying statistics (and opponent quality) say they should be at.
The Pirates have played like the 70-win team we all thought they were. We’ve just gotten all the breaks so far.
I’ll follow that up by saying
1) I sure hope the luck doesn’t run out and
B) I think NH is smart enough to not fall into the trap that the Royals did after 2003.
hopefully this team can continue to surprise, just so we can put things like Pythagorean to rest.
by white angus on Jun 30, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Winning...
won’t put Pythagorean to rest. If the Pirates win a bunch more games 6-2 like they did last night, their RS/RA ratio will become more favorable and the Pyth. record will start to adjust more favorably toward the Pirates actual record.
It doesn’t go away.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Defying the odds is fun
teams over perform all the time, as well as doing worse than expected. There are many rolls of the dice, plays here and there that turn a game.
Although I have dutifully watched every game for the past few years, this is the first time in probably 20 that I am getting excited, can’t wait for the next game. Like when it’s Sunday and the Steelers will be on. I love that feeling.
Now, looking at the players we have, I know in my head that I should expect worse than 40-39 the rest of the year. But I also know that even with the talent we have, or that the front office might be able to bring in, it is possible to be a winning team over a half of a season. We’ve already done it for the first half, now we wish to buck the odds and do it the second half as well. 85 wins could take this division. That’s 45-38 the rest of the year. While I’ll admit it might not be likely, I know it’s certainly possible.
Let’s watch the games and enjoy. 1973 was a hell of a ride. The team was flawed in many ways. Clemente was gone, Blass couldn’t throw strikes. The defense was pretty crappy. But Willie was blasting the ball and new guys like Rooker were winning games. It came down to the game after the scheduled end of the season. It actually could have ended in a three way tie with the Cubs and Mets, but some rookie pitcher on the Padres named Randy Jones shut us down that final game.
by Brian Cartwright on Jun 30, 2011 6:34 PM EDT reply actions
What is the relationship between ISO SLG and BABIP
If my underlying assumption was that the Pirates were a singles-hitting team, much moreso than the rest of the league, my secondary assumption would be that they would be ranked low in ISO and SLG and higher in BABIP.
Oh that’s exactly how it is.
Thus, it’s not necessarily a sign of a lack of success nor being lucky nor indicating some sort of regression – it is what it is. I would be more surprised if they ranked lower in BABIP.
I didn't ....
suggest that the ISO, SLG or BABip numbers were anything but what they actually were.
ISO and SLG numbers are not really luck-related. BABip is at times, which is why I pointed out the Pirates were in the middle of the pack and thus weren’t particularly lucky or unlucky.
As for your assumption, it’s not the Pirates are a singles hitting team, it is the fact that up to this point in the season they have been a poor hitting team. Which is the definition of a lack of success.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Please - stop the "lucky"
If I had a nickel for every time someone used “lucky” on this site I would have at least enough for a six-pack of really good beer.
So, a model based on runs scored and runs against results in a 38-41 record and the Pirates actual record is 40-39? A model which only apparently only accounts for two variables must mean the Pirates are unlucky? Those are called models to support your argument.
I mean seriously, if the Bucs were 50-29 – now yes, that might be a lucky record based on a metric that has acceptance and validity, although probably a season length of games versus a half-season. But one game over, versus 3 games under? That’s not luck that’s the error term left out.
See the post above....
about third order wins and the metrics that are determinant in a team scoring and giving up runs. As pointed out in that case the Pirates are outperforming their expected results by 6.5 games.
If you don’t accept how these things are calculated or don’t believe them that’s fine, but I didn’t invent them or create the terminology. Both are generally accepted when discussing these sorts of things the terms “lucky” and “unlucky” are used in context.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Brilliant analysis, D-Todd!
I like very much your approach in assessing the Pirates and their performance thus far this season. Notwithstanding your assessment, however, I am optimistic that the Pirates can maintain their performance thus far this season and will probably finish 83-79. Too optimistic? I don’t think so. One reason: Clint Hurdle. I like Hurdle’s approach to this team. Let’s face it, last year was a disaster. I lay the blame primarily at the lackluster, lack of passion of John Russell. Hurdle seems to get more out of his players. I think his expectation is that the PIRATES MUST improve, and he won’t accept anything less. Last year at this time we were well below .500 and had nowhere to go but up. Here we are on July 1st sitting at 41-39, 2 games ABOVE .500. I think you’d agree most of us wouldn’t have believed it last year if anyone told us we’d have a winning record and be in 3rd place only a couple games out of the division lead by this time in 2011. So, I’ll take it. This team still does some things that baffle me sometimes and all the points you made about the Pirates deficiencies are fair and pretty accurate. But we’re winning. Not by much, but I’ll take it. This team IS improving. It still has a long way to go. But for the 1st time in 18 years, you have to admit that there’s hope for the Pirates. And that, my friend, is a hell of a lot better than the despair and disappointment of years past. I said I’d be happy if this team played .500 ball this year, and by God they’re doing it. So count your blessings, Buccos fans. We ain’t there yet. But I’m betting we’re on our way. LET"S GO BUCCOS.
Hurdle has done a great job
I am no fan of the bunt, however with the talent on this team I think Hurdle has taken a decent approach. He has a rotation and bullpen who are performing over their heads so to speak and he is riding the hot hand. many guys have had huge nights at the crap table doing the same thing. Now if we could just a big bat in right or first….paging Carlos Pena.
Can't rec this one
I didn’t see the games in question re: the baserunning, but after a close game you can always point to one or three things that could have made a difference. I don’t see a connection between their unimpressive season stats and crapping away a single game. I do agree with the another poster in the sense that my feeling after reading this post is that to expect a Pirate win given their stats is silly or even delusional. I’m sure you didn’t mean that, but it’s the tone I got. Sorry.
There’s the phrase, “the season isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon” and I think that’s wrong. I think it’s 162 distinct sprints. Any one of those games could be a bad loss, even if you lose 105 games. They might be expected to lose, but that doesn’t mean that some good baseball instead of bad baseball wouldn’t have pulled THAT ONE out. Callers talk about THE game, after the game.
think....
you might have misunderstood. I was suggesting the baserunning didn’t cost the Pirates the game on Wednesday.
And no, I don’t think it’s delusional. Just they have to perform better offensively. (See fanpost I just put up.) I actually can point to tangible things, which, if they happen, make it likely.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
No, yeah, I got that
I’m saying I can’t blame a fan for feeling that baserunning did cost them the game(s). Regardless of whether they got outplayed statistically, if they were in position to win the game at some point and failed, it’s a valid complaint. They could get outhit 10-3, outwalked 6-2, whiff 15 times, and commit 4 errors to the opponents none. But if they end up only losing that game 2-1, it’s conceivable, nay, likely, they could have won the game had they done something differently. Like not make a baserunning or tactical blunder that doesn’t show up in the stat sheet.
I’m not disagreeing with your whole point, just that complaining about a loss, even when outplayed, or in the midst of a poor statistical stretch, should be a perfectly acceptable thing to do, or hear.
like ants at a picnic dtoddwin
i buy the stats and the argument. i just choose to not care :)
It's possible to have both
I’m excited by the season so far, young player breaking out, a newfound depth at the major league level, yet I felt kind of bemused when MLB Trade Rumors called the Pirates a contender.
Nothing wrong with a lot of close wins, there may even be more skill to it than we think. But the important point here is that we tend to take small positives for granted and think that small negatives can be overcome easily.
I feel like I just read through an aethiest vs. intellegent design forum where they attempt to explain the origins of life, as fact, while completely fogetting that it’s all theoretical.
Personally I’ll worry about the true outcome on the field as it’s the first time in my adult life that July baseball is relevant for the current season. For once I am not looking foward to a trade deadline for future building pieces, thinking about offseason moves, and looking forward to a new April beginning… all pre all-star break.
I’ll then concentrate my efforts on continuing to dominate the bucsdugout fantasy league.
Chicken wire, duct tape and spit...... luxery
when I was a lad we had baling wire, chewing gum and spit… if we were lucky!
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