Justin Verlander: A Case Study into Greg Smith's Process
by biggyv on Jun 5, 2011 3:56 PM EDT
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PrintIn today's Baltimore Sun, Phil Rogers discusses the Tigers' process leading into the 2004 draft, where they had the #2 pick and Greg Smith was the team's scouting director.
Justin Verlander was 7-6 with a 3.49 ERA at Old Dominion that year, and walked about five batters per nine innings. The Tigers believed that he had the best stuff in the draft, but had struggled to repeat his delivery at ODU. Other pitchers such as Jered Weaver, Philip Humber, and Jeff Niemann were rated higher by some scouting services. But Smith liked Verlander's stuff too much.
In an email last week, Smith referenced a "lack of consensus'' within the Tigers' scouting staff about Verlander. But he was convinced that the powerful right-hander would rise above Weaver and Humber, who probably were safer picks, so he stuck to his guns.
"If the main focus had been on current performance, his value certainly would have slipped and moved him down the board,'' said Smith, now the Pirates' scouting director. "… We believed there was more in there yet to be harnessed.''
It goes without saying that the writeup on Verlander leading into the draft reminds us of someone, and probably goes a long way toward explaining that Gerrit Cole is being seen as the Pirates' pick at 1.1 tomorrow.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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That's why he makes the big bucks
Hope he knows something (a lot of things) that we don’t know. Hope lightning strikes twice. Hope hope hope for the best, etc.
Lino Donoso
Well, not EVERYTHING.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
by Stealing First Base on Jun 6, 2011 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Part of what makes me kind of flabbergasted at the reaction to Cole possibly being the pick is people seem to be under the mistaken impression that he can’t, you know, get better. That he’ll be 2011 UCLA Gerrit Cole for his entire career.
Heck Jameson Tallion didn’t have overwhelming stats (for a high schooler with his “stuff” at least) and no one seemed to mind his selection.
Thank you Travis
I’ve asked that question many times to people who blast the Cole pick. Personally, unless his medicals are terrible, I want Rendon (and Bundy would be my #2), but everyone acts like he couldn’t harness his command or improve at all.
my stance
i disagree with the Cole pick, although I’d be the first to accept I know far less than the FO does. However, my reasoning here is that Cole is nowhere near as polished as I’d want a #1 overall pick to be. I have no idea what the circumstances around the 2004 top of the draft were, but as you’ll notice if you do an advanced search with Verlander for my user ID, I have mentioned the Verlander comp for Cole quite a while back. That, imo, is essentially what the FO is going for, if they pick Cole.
However, note also that Smith was SD for the tigers for 7 years or so, and had a v poor track record. So for every pick of his that turned into a Verlander, there were plenty of busts (I m not implying all of this is his fault or anything, simply that it happened, so to pick just one v good outcome is misleading).
Further, this is a loaded draft, and my favorite college pitcher in this draft is Trevor Bauer. I realize jackiejenkins’ hyperbolizing has turned a lot of people off toward Bauer, but I think he’s going to be very good. As such, it’s not that Cole isn’t a good talent, it’s:
1. He’s not the best college talent- Rendon is, although his medicals murk the scenario.
2. He’s not the best college pitcher either, imo.
3. On upside, he’s probably at #4 or #5 on my list, which is disappointing
4. He’s going to get a huge signing bonus (which will reduce some of our ability to get good talent from the draft) and likely a ML deal. So whatever changes we’re going to have him make, they better work and quick.
Of course, Cole could improve, but so could others, and if you agree to the premise that he’s not the best college pitcher out there now, why would you believe he is more likely to be better than the others? That’s where my thinking on this lies, and I haven’t even put in the flameout rate of college pitchers in there.
Finally, unless the major league team dramatically improves here on out, this may well be the pick (or draft, overall) that will decide Huntington’s future in 2013 or so.
Of course, Cole could improve, but so could others, and if you agree to the premise that he’s not the best college pitcher out there now, why would you believe he is more likely to be better than the others?
In a word, scouting. There are a lot of scouts – and scouting-oriented analysts like Keith Law- who feel that because of Cole’s tools and projectability, he is more likely to be a big league ace than the other college pitchers (Bauer and Hultzen, primarily) who are outperforming him this year.
This is a perspective that can’t ge gleaned by looking at the numbers, so I understand why people have a hard time accepting it. What is more puzzling to me is why people slag off Cole because he’s not dominating college competition and scream for Rendon, who isn’t dominating college competition either.
Rendon
the reason I want Rendon is that I believe the injury has hampered his performance majorly. I believe that the guy from the previous 2 years is the real one, not the one frmo this year.Plus, the elite eye, and the bat-speed.
Sure
You could be right, too. Or maybe jackiegleason is right and Bauer becomes the next Lincecum. Or – who knows? – maybe tge Pirates are right and Cole is the best. There are also draft gurus out there like Goldstein who prefer Bundy over all the college guys. It’s wide open this year, you could make a reasonable case for a lot of guys at #1.
well if this was his regular performance level though
that’s not too good… he’s way down the college leaderboards. However, when you consider he’s doing this with what may be a major injury, it’s that much more impressive in context.
That's fine, but...
If you’re going to go the “I like the guy from the first two years” route, it works for Cole too. Over his first two seasons he posted a 1.15 WHIP, 11.12 K/9 and 3.91 BB/9 (and even in his “disappointing” junior season he posted a 1.11 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and 3.31 ERA. It’s not like he was getting smoked.)
www.stealingfirstbase.com
by Stealing First Base on Jun 6, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Out of curiosity...
who are the 4 guys with more upside in this draft. The only one, imo, with arguably more upside would be Bundy.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
my take only
Rendon (this was independent of injury reports- so this probably changes now)
Bundy
Bauer
Starling/Bradley/Guerrieri (depending on who you believe)
Rendon, Bundy arguments can be made...
and maybe…maybe Starling (I think he’s gotten a ton of draft hype like Tate a couple of years ago) but the other two, not so much.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
and for argument sake...
it’s difficult for me to believe Rendon is the best college player unless we are just ignoring this season. It hard to argue that anyone is better than Bauer or Hultzen right now.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
fair argument
as maguro said earlier, there’s strong cases to be made for a lot of people. Until I factored in RichieHebner’s comment about medical report, I stand by Rendon as the best college player, since I’m discounting some of the drop in his performance due to injury.
I get you...
it’s hard for any of us to say without knowing the full report. I’ve been of the opinion that if he fully recovers from the injury the 09 and 10 versions are the real Rendon (and that would make him the #1 imo). But if there is structural issues involved that changes things.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
There's a big difference between Cole and Taillon
3 years of college.
Plus, Tailon was in a significantly weaker class, and the options were far fewer.
True...
But if Verlander could improve by leaps and bounds and harness his stuff, why can’t Cole?
Verlander has 151K's in 105 innings
missing bats in college is imperative if you are supposedly a power pitcher.
Cole’s K’s when compared to other supposed power guys drafted early who had the same type of K’s per 9, well not alot of success out of those type guys.
Hey I’ll root for him but am convinced he’s a big mistake.
My shift has me listening to ESPN early mornings and there appears to be a 50/50 split on these two right now. I hear guys mention that because he’s small that pitching every 5th day will be tough (I love that argument, what a crock of BS) and others say he’s a rubber band arm type of player who throws daily and who’s delivery will protect his arm for his career. Big division.
By the way, I heard it again saying the Pirates were the only team not to include Bauer on their draft board. They said supposedly the Pirates felt he was too small and risky.
by jackiegleason on Jun 6, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
To anyone who might know, which is the best league in college baseball generally? How about just this season? I could imagine it being any of the BCS conferences outside of the Big East or Big X.
I think I saw a similar question on a Keith Law chat
Specifically, which is best for MLB preparation. I believe he said the SEC was #1, with the Pac 10 and ACC being 2A and 2B.
Still doesn’t take away from my central thought, which is that Cole can certainly get much, much better. He could also stagnate and be horrible, but everyone acts like that’s the only option.
everyone acts like that’s the only option
Nobody acts like that’s the only option, but everyone knows the history of college pitchers, and where the odds lie. Where I think you’re primarily wrong is in overstating the dislike for the pick.
Interesting to note
That the Royals announced today that John Lamb will be needed TJ surgery. That’s a huge blow to their world-dominating prospect bunch, although they do still have enough top-shelf arms to let him rehab for a year and still be fine. While he is a HS pick, it just goes to show the volatility of pitching prospects in general.
If the Pirates think they can get Cole to develop into Verlander, I trust them and am excited to watch his development. I’d probably still rather have Rendon, but I’m willing to watch this play out.
Lamb and Odorizzi are the only ones of the top KC prospects, not including the promoted Hosmer, who were doing well...
moose, montgomery, myers, smith, colon; none really standing out with their new placements…
goes to show just how few of the top prospects actually “dominate” a new level
hopefully
they can make him another Verlander and not another Anderson.
Hey what time is the draft tomorrow? Also is i just round 1 or more than that?
We have to unify and watch our flag ascend!
7:00
coverage begins at 6 on MLB network……also available on mlb.com
I put this in another thread...
but I’ll post it again here since every draft related post seems to boil down to a Cole vs. Bauer debate. It’s an interesting article in which scouts are asked who’d they prefer between Cole and Bauer:
http://www.tree.com/sports-recreation/blog-blog/archive-2011-06-05-west-coast-bias-poll-of-scouts-on-draft-bound-ucla-pitchers-yield-some-surprises.aspx
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Everyone in Pirate land is vastly underrating Gerrit Cole
Stats are nice and all, but people are really not realizing just how good Gerrit Cole probably will be.
You are all missing one BIG thing.
Verlanders MAJOR PROBLEM was walks and control. Gerrit Cole’s major problem is he gets HIT. That’s a difference.
Gerrit Cole....
The guy becomes the best pitching prospect in baseball the day he signs, and everyone is crying about it.
Yeah, I like Miller and Taillon better than Cole. He could still be pretty good though.
by Adam Reynolds on Jun 6, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Out of curiosity, what makes you like Taillon better than Cole? Just that Taillon has had success in his limited pro ball experience so far?
www.stealingfirstbase.com
by Stealing First Base on Jun 6, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Taillon is not even top 10 on most "experts" list...
Shelby Miller is high up there , also Matt Moore, Julia Teheran, jake odorizzi… but Taillon could jump even higher with some dominating starts
a .230 BAA against COLLEGE hitters
That’s a .230 BAA against competition between A+ and AA I’m guessing at best. I doubt his fastball’s going to get much faster than 98 MPH late in games. I doubt his completely wicked slider is going to get much better. I doubt his amazing changeup is going to get a ton better, (though at least he’ll probably be encouraged to throw it more in pro ball). It very well COULD happen, but I’m not the most optimistic person that it will.
So what point are you making exactly?
I think you are saying that you are worried that he will get hit as a pro because he isn’t more dominant in college. That’s a valid point and the main reason he isn’t a no brainer consensus #1 pick. However I believe when he gets a better pitching plan and if he is able to develop above average command you’re looking at a potential Cy Younger. His stuff is above average to excellent right now. He just needs to work on the things I listed.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I heard this on the radio today (actually was a replay so might have aired earlier), a guy was breaking down the draft and said the most polished pitcher now is Hultzen. He felt, and quite frankly I do too, Hultzen will have the quickest time to the majors. He probably won’t be an ace, but a competant number two and mentioned the idea of having a lefty in between Tallion and Allie (Allie is headed for the bullpen IMO and far away from the majors). He felt Hultzen was the most sure thing in the draft. Without having see much of Hultzen, I like to think he’s comparable to Mike Leake from Cincy.
But he said if the Pirates want to get risky, they’ll take Rendon or Cole. FWIW I’ll be happy with either pitcher and less so about Rendon due to the injuries. I think it will be Cole, but I just thought I’d throw that idea out there.
Everybody has been saying that about Hultzen...
the only problem is most doesn’t see him as a front line starter and that would be disappointing for me to get someone without Ace talent. If Hultzen turned out to be Leake that would be even more disappointing for 1.1 pick imo. I don’t see Leake as anything more than a back end guy, maybe #3 at best.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
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