Is Presley for Real?

by zogger on Jul 10, 2011 10:27 AM EDT

With two more hits last night, AP is hitting .362. Over the last 10 games, he is hitting .385 with 5BB and 6K.He is hitting .235 against lefties and .433 against righties. His slash line is .362/.426/.596/1.022

So is AP going to keep this up or is he headed for a crash? If he keeps this up, it will be hard to not keep him in the lineup when Tabata comes back.

IMHO, I see him cooling off but staying about .300 for the rest of the year. I'd like to see a bit more HR, but he is doing a nice job as a leadoff hitter. When Tabata comes back, I'd have Presley be the starting RF with Diaz starting against lefties. That would give us super speed in the OF and on the bases.

Poll

Is AP for Real?

He will keep hitting way above .300

27 votes

He will fall back to about .300

98 votes

He will fall back to .280ish

44 votes

He will crash and burn

0 votes

169 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

Tweet Comment 30 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

i would have Presley stay in LF and move Tabata to RF

save some wear and tear on Tab’s legs plus his arm is better than Elvis’…

and no, Presley cant keep this pace up.

by white angus on Jul 10, 2011 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

agreed

Everyone keeps saying Presley is going to move to RF when Tabata comes back. I think its been well known that Tabata will eventually move to RF so this would be a perfect time to move him there now. Less ground to cover (especially at PNC) will help Tabata and his arm will be much more valuable in RF.

by FusilliJerry88 on Jul 10, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Of Course Presley is for real

He is not just hitting for average but even his outs are good at bats. Jones just trys to hit the ball in the river every time up.

by fatbastard on Jul 10, 2011 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

chicks dig the long ball!

I think AP will get better actually. I can see his numbers against lefties go up.

by Joey Mooney on Jul 10, 2011 11:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

True

He has no platoon split from the minors.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 10, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

He can still be extremely usful

Even if his average falls off by about 80 points, which its likely to do.

by Woo! on Jul 10, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

I'd be thrilled with...

290/350/450

by mak_DC on Jul 10, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

at this point

a spot in the OF is his to lose…

by BurgherKing on Jul 10, 2011 11:41 AM EDT reply actions

The answer to this question is...

Yes. Kids a natural hitter. I see him being a .300 hitter for a long time.

by Zach Buccos on Jul 10, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

It’s too soon to say whether The King is for real, or if pitchers will soon find a weakness to exploit. The jury’s still out on Tabata, too. A small-market team such as Pittsburgh needs to find out, so I’d put them in the corners and move Jones to first.

by bolton on Jul 10, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions

The King

I like that. Nominate that as his official BD nickname.

by azibuck on Jul 10, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll second

by Wizard of Woz on Jul 11, 2011 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions

looks good

his minor league numbers for the last few years say he can keep it up. those are minor league numbers tho. there is a reason though why he is 26 and just now getting an extended look. all we can do is wait and see and hope.

long live the king.

by bbautista24 on Jul 10, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Presley

His BAbip coming into today was over .400, so yeah, he’s not going to keep this up. ZiPS ROS projection is .264/.314/.408, which is about what I would have expected. That said, he has looked good at the plate and he’s definitely earned a longer look. I still think he’ll eventually fall back down to 4th outfielder status, but I’m more optimistic now than I was a couple weeks ago.

I’m not sure I’d move Tabata off left for him, though. I just don’t trust that he’s a long-term answer enough to move Tabata yet. It sucks because Presley’s arm doesn’t really play in RF, but given the shape of PNC his arm’s probably almost as big a liability in LF as it would be in RF.

by epoc on Jul 10, 2011 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

.400 BABIP is too high, but he can probably sustain something in the .350 range.

Fast left handed batters who hit to all fields are able to sustain the highest BABIP of any player. He cam absolutely be a .300+ AVG hitter in MLB from what I’ve seen.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 10, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Sustaining a .350 BABIP

Would make Presley a near HoF-caliber hitter. The list of guys who were able to do that is extremely high-end.

http://reconditebaseball.blogspot.com/2008/05/extreme-career-babip.html

I would like to think he can do it, but it’s going against the odds.

by maguro on Jul 10, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

A consistent .350 BAbip is extremely unlikely. I do agree with Mark that Presley profiles as a guy who should have a good BAbip, though. The ZiPS projection I mentioned includes a .312 BAbip, so if you bump the BA up a bit it would be something like .280/.330/.420. With average D, that would be a roughly league-average player in this offensive environment, which is more than I expected from Presley.

Of course, Neil Walker looked like a ~.280/.330/.420 hitter after last season, too, and that’s not going so well these days. I still don’t have a ton of hope for Presley, but he’s clearly deserved a longer look, and I hope he continues to exceed my expectations.

by epoc on Jul 10, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

FYI

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5305&position=OF
Presley had .385 babip when he breakout last year at Altoona, and he had .378 this year at Indianapolis.

by taiwania on Jul 11, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Presley reminds me a little of Orlando Merced

He’s faster than Merced though. Merced was a guy I kept underestimating when he first came up. I don’t think he was rated as much of a prospect in the low minors. Back in ’91, we needed a firstbaseman who hit left-handed (to platoon with Redus). He seized the job with a fast start and kept on going and going. Merced wound up with a pretty solid career.

by skvolcanoes on Jul 10, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

Presley and Merced

. . . and Presley could do the same. I needed one more sentence there to finish the thought.

by skvolcanoes on Jul 10, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Will be interesting once Tabata comes back

I don’t know how you can sit Presley and let Overbay keep playing. It just doesn’t seem possible.

by maguro on Jul 10, 2011 3:03 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's time to end the Overbay era

Put Jones at 1B and let Presley play everyday. The difference in hitting between Overbay and Presley should be plenty large enough to offset the issue of having Jones hit against LHP.

Side note: has Diaz ever played first? We’ve never talked about that, but could he theoretically spell Jones occasionally at first against tough lefties?

by Garrett122 on Jul 10, 2011 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

Wood can

just sayin’

by Mr. E on Jul 10, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I like having wood!

But on a non sexual note I want to see him get more playing time!

by Joey Mooney on Jul 10, 2011 4:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

If Wood can play defense like he has since he’s been here, I don’t mind having his horrible bat on the roster. Alvarez, Harrison, and d’Arnaud are all suspect in the field, and Cedeno has a concussion. Those aren’t easy injuries to come back from. He’s our safest bet defensively among all the infielders right now, if you’re worried about Cedeno’s health.

No jinx no jinx no jinx.

by Suffering Buc on Jul 10, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Presley

For two years in the upper minors, he has hit. In the majors, he has made solid contact and has shown excellent strike zone recognition. (The called strike 3 in today’s game was a joke – that was ball 4.)

A speedy, left-handed hitter who makes solid contact and who has plus ball/strike recognition will hit anywhere he plays.

by BuccoFan21 on Jul 10, 2011 11:41 PM EDT reply actions

ALVIS Presley THE KING!

Hermits have no peer pressure.........Stephen Wright

by elnardowebster on Jul 11, 2011 1:36 AM EDT reply actions

He turned it on last year

Judging his MLEs

He’s been bring his so% down every year from 2004 to 2010, although bb% has been fairly steady (053-063) then up this year. Except for 08 & 09 has always had good babip (309-345)

year  PA wOBA  BA/ OB/ SA  BH  HR  BB  SO
2010 590  337 288/334/442 334 026 059 168
2011 381  367 317/367/477 367 031 071 172

He’s been at this level for almost 1000 PAs. Projections such as Oliver or Zips use three years, plus 2008 for in-season 2011. However, I’d like to believe that 300/350/450 is closer to Presley’s true talent level than a 270 ba estimate that’s pulled down by poor seasons in 2008 and 2009

by Brian Cartwright on Jul 11, 2011 5:52 AM EDT reply actions

It’s been a long time since I’ve liked an outfield as much as the Jones/McCutchen/Presley outfield we have now.

Right now, there really isn’t much that concerns me about Presley. His swing has no holes. He has a good eye for balls and strikes. He has okay pop for a leadoff type player. He runs well. He plays a solid outfield. I don’t think I would be stretching it too much to think that Presley could be a 295/360/435 type player heading into the future. I’d prefer my corner outfielders to be 475 SLUG and above, but considering Presley offers more in the speed department than most of the heavier hitting corner outfielders would, I’d take that type of production all day.

by slick720 on Jul 11, 2011 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

SMALL BALL

We are still a small ball team. Tabata, Cutch and Presley in the OF put trememdous pressure on the D. Their speed on ground balls is a delight to behold. Plus they can steal second after that scratch hit. Jones and Pearce at first provide power down in the line-up. Doumit should also provide pop and switch-hitting is a PLUS. I like still think Jones is a 20 HR and 70 RBI man who is an asset to this team. Speed kills!

by pittsburghdad6 on Jul 12, 2011 4:58 PM EDT reply actions