How are the top position prospects doing?
by Roberto on Jul 10, 2011 2:41 PM EDT
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PrintTo answer this question I'll take the top 10 position prospects from the Pirates Prospects Position Guide and look at their on base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. I'll also try to offer some context by looking back to last year.
Starling Marte, Altoona, AA, (OBP = 351/SLG =455/OPS =806). For the last ten games (283/341/624). This performance nearly equals last year's, although July has been a bit ugly. Still a nice line, and the slugging is up a bit (23 doubles and 5 HR versus 19 and 3 last year). Here's a quote from BA,
Marte's defense will accelerate his rise, as will his intelligence and ambition. But his strike-zone discipline will have to keep pace. Ticketed for Double-A in 2011, he could push Andrew McCutchen to an outfield corner when he arrives in Pittsburgh.
His strike zone issues do not appear to have been solved, though AA pitchers are not able to take advantage of them.
Tony Sanchez, Altoona, AA, (346/314/661). For the last ten games only (318/333/652). This is disappointing, as the OPS is 200 points below last year's. The hitting will have to improve for him to remain a top prospect, although the glove should carry him to the majors in some capacity.
Andrew Lambo, Altoona, AA, (265/307/572). For the last ten games (348/439/787). Well, there are a few hopeful signs recently, although this has been a bad year for Lambo. This is his third year in AA, and it's hard to consider Lambo a top prospect anymore (especially since his tool is hitting).
Chase d'Arnaud, Pittsburgh Pirates. Not much to say. He may not be up to stay, but last year's poor performance is no longer a concern. (Note, he wasn't hitting a Indy when he was called up, so his struggles with the Pirates were to be expected. His season stats at Indy were fine, though: 347/418/766.)
Mel Rojas, West Virginia, A, (298/345/643). For the last ten games the numbers are better, but still not outstanding (318/634/952). Two doubles, two triples, and three home runs in the last 10 games suggest that the power tool is starting to emerge. He had no home runs or triples last year.
Jarek Cunningham, Bradenton, A+, (323/534/857). Fifteen home runs this year, and he's been on fire during the last 10 games (400/545/945). He has definitely moved up in the rankings. Looks like a pretty good 18th round pick up.
Exicardo Cayonez, ?, (189/063/252). As Charlie noted a couple of days ago
after going 2-for-32 for State College, he's back in the GCL.
He actually is not on that roster yet, but this has been a brutal year for him.
Gorkys Hernandez, Indianapolis, AAA, (350/409/759). In the last 10 games he's been almost as hot as Jerek Cunningham. He hit a home run!!! and had a slash line of 390/579/969, which is excellent. Given his excellent defensive skills, this makes Hernandez a legitimate prospect again. He's in AAA, dong well, and is 23.
Brock Holt, Altoona, AA, (338/382/720). He seems to have heated back up in July going 341/405/747, so he's in the picture, but not dazzling. This is not as good as last year, (410/438/848), but is still decent.
Only Cayonez and Lambo are raising serious doubts, and one hopes Cayonez can bounce back.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Bingo!
Gorkys should be the trade candidate people are talking about, not Marte. Package him with a couple of arms to get at bat. Basically a reverse McLouth trade.
Especially since it's a little hard
To see him beating out McCutchen, Tabata, Presley, or Marte.
Viva Clemente!
anyone going to mention the 20 plus errors that Cunningham has had this half season at 2B?
oh wait, i just did.
Any sense of where they're happening?
I haven’t seen him play, but a little hard to imagine they’re on throws.
Viva Clemente!
Errors in the minor leagues: Not indicative of defensive ability.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 10, 2011 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but
supposedly Cunningham has the range of Overbay’s glove.
by BurgherKing on Jul 10, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, I know he’s not supposed to be good defensively. But errors are not a good way to point that out.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 11, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
defense
His defense is underrated, in my opinion. His range is solid, and his hands are fine. His big problem is just that he’s really awkward. He doesn’t seem to control his body well in the field. Theoretically, that’s something that a pro athlete should be able to improve with repitition. I think it’s possible he could play okay defense at either 2B or 3B eventually, but he does profile better as an outfielder, IMO.
im sorry, but 20 errors at 2B halfway through a season when you are not known for defense in the first place...
is not acceptable. hes a future RF.
Tweet from Langosch moments ago
Spoke with a coach who has seen lots of Starling Marte this year. Said the CF hasn’t even neared his potential yet. Raw tools are that good.
Why give us OBP, SLG, and OPS?
We can do math. I mean, for that matter we can look up the statistics ourselves, but I’d prefer an AVG/OBP/OPS line, and figure out the SLG myself… it’s like four stats in three!
Everyone seems to be hating on AVG these days…
I think it's funny how You apparently don't care how often a player gets a hit per at bat.
That is one of the most important things for me in the minor leagues. More important than in the majors, for sure. It would be better to give AVG, K%, and BB%. Those are the most important stats in the minors.
I'm a traditionialist...
Avg/OBP/Slg is the standard triple slash.
slash
What ever happened to AVG HR RBI..?
Two of those metrics are all but useless for player evaluation, and the other one isn’t all that much better.
by thecheeseisblue on Jul 11, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Batting average ...
is the third most important indicator of offensive production, trailing only OBP and slugging which, combined, are represented as OPS.
Oh, so a line showing OBP, slugging and OPS is the best indicator of offensive performance? Never mind ….
To evaluate minor league talent I like to break things down into the skills of hitting.
There’s 1) the ability to consistently make contact, for which K/AB% is the important stat to look at, 2) The ability to hit the ball hard when you do make contact, for which AVG is a good indicator, and 3) the ability to control the strike zone and hit pitches good for you, not for the pitcher, for which BB/PA% is the best indicator.
SLG% is a good indicator of what kind of hitter the player is, and that determines the acceptable range for the other numbers.
If a player is basically a singles hitter, then I like to see AVG around .320-.330, K/AB% of around 12% and BB/PA% of 8% to believe that player will be successful in MLB.
If the player is a power hitter, then the AVG can be .300+, K/AB under 20% and BB/PA of 10%+.
So, just proving OBP doesn’t tell me much, because if the player has a high AVG but only 3% walk rate, then I think his skills might not translate to MLB (something to look for in Starling Marte).
Similarly, OPS doesn’t mean much on its own because a player could have a high walk rate and hit for a lot of power, but with a K/AB of 30% and an AVG of under .280 (like Pedro Alvarez did). That makes me think that the player could have major problems with making contact in MLB and could struggle a lot.
Here’s an example of what I’m talking about (OBP/SLG/OPS)…
Pedro Alvarez in 2010: 363 /.533 / .896
Matt Hague in 2011: .378 / .479 / .857
With these numbers, you can’t a darn thing about the readiness of these players for MLB. They look kind of similar, but you’d probably lean toward Pedro Alvarez being the guy more ready for MLB.
However, when you look at the K/AB, you see Alvarez had a huge issue in making contact (28%), while Hague is excellent (11.6%). Hague makes contact with the frequency of a singles hitter, but has pretty decent power, but not the overwhelming power of Alvarez.
For me, Hague is much more primed to succeed in MLB right now (with the bat anyway), because his skills will translate easier, while Alvarez was right on the tipping point between striking out too many times to make up for it with HRs.
by MarkInDallas on Jul 11, 2011 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions
lol
Yeah, K rate and BB rate and BA are important, but claiming that Matt Hague is a better ML player than Alvarez right now doesn’t do your argument any favors.
We’ll see if I’m right if we ever see Hague in MLB.
by MarkInDallas on Jul 11, 2011 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I strongly agree with MarkinDallas on the importance of average and K rate in the minor leagues.
For me, the walk rate is of lesser importance. I want to see a player be able to hit the pitch that’s not quite perfect. Of course, it’s also not a good thing to see a player never walk.
The other stat I favor, especially below Triple-A, is doubles/triples, especially for players who are young for their league.
As far as Hague/Alvarez, I wish we could combine Hague’s contact skills with Alvarez’s power.
HAGUAREZ!
He would be amazing and also impervious to traditional weapons.
Unfortunately, some fans here would dislike him because one ear would still be inside his hat.
Robbie Grossman
.280/.420/.391 combines a .811 OPS, the bat is lack of powerful but with a very good plate discipline: BB/SO is 75/69!!! And he also has 19 stolen bases in 25 attempts.
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