The Price for Jose Reyes
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 9:46 AM EDT
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The Pirates fans have suffered 18 years for a winning season. Now there is currently one in sight, while it would be stupid to "sell the farm" for a winning season this year, perhaps the Pirates should give up some value for greater value this season. What position have we been complaining about a long? Shortstop right? While Ronny Cedeno has certainly proven himself serviceable, imagine an all-star upgrade. How bout Jose Reyes?
Before anyone shoots this idea down without consideration, consider this. The Mets clearly signaled they are in a sell-mode through the K-Rod trade to Milwaukee, a rebuilding process. Reyes has one year left on his contract and won't be there next year, they will be looking to get some value for him. Obviously the price for Reyes will be high, but out of reach?
Consider this trade proposal, Brad Lincoln+Stetson Allie + Jody Mercer+PTBNL = Jose Reyes. While all these players clearly have value, and I would be hesitant to give up Allie, as they say you gotta spend money to make money. Brad Lincoln is a relatively young middle of the rotation guy, the Pirates farm system is loaded with these type of guys. While Lincoln may be on the upswing of these middle rotation guys, I believe he is replaceable. As far as Allie goes, he's the guy I would hate to lose the most, Allie has enormous potential with his 100 mph fastball. However he is low in the minors and anything but guaranteed. The Pirates also have insurance in this department from Taillon and Cole. Additionally, Mercer would provide the Mets with an intriguing Shortstop replacement. Mercer has shown power from the shortstop position which is rare, but I don't think his batting average will let him hang in the Bigs, he is still intriguing enough though to perhaps entice the Mets. Lastly, a PTBNL could just sweeten the pot enough for the Mets to take this deal.
Someone like Reyes could be like when Marian Hossa went to the Pens which got them over the hump and into the Cup. He provides a high batting average, athleticism (a hall-mark of this club), and stealing ability. All of these traits could get the Pirates past the Brewers and the Cards in a weak division. I believe this move could help the Pirates break a dizzying losing spell that so desperately needs to be broken and not hopelessly mortgage the future. Additionally turn an already excited fan base into one that is electrified, additional ticket sales could go a long way.
Your thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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I love Reyes
I just think the issue for me is that the Pirates would not be able to retain him after this season and he is probably going to get $20M+ a year for 5 or more years. Also, I think the Pirates would have to include a guy like Starling Marte in your trade proposal for the Mets to do it.
He is too injury-prone to do something like this.
Plus there is no way we re-sign him so I don’t think it would be worth it to give up 4 players that could potentially help us for many years for half a season from Reyes
The point is this
I suppose my point is this, time to think of this year. The benefits of making the playoffs for the Buccos is worth the price, it raises the morale and produces a winning environment that breeds. Plus ticket sales could go a long way into keeping guys like McCutchen, Tabata, and Walker around. Yes, they’ll probably lose Reyes after this year but his impact would be well worth it.
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I see your point.
But Reyes is currently on the DL. So I wouldn’t trade the farm for a guy who is frequently injured. If i give up that much for him he best be in tip-top shape
If I'm the Mets
I turn this down.
I’d want Tallion, Marte and Cain (if not more).
Would love to have Reyes...
I think anyone here would agree. But if you can’t insure that you would have him the next season you can’t do it. Plus, while this Pirate team is fun to watch, I’m not sure that they are the kind of team that needs 1 more player to put them over the hump. I still think that pitching is the big question mark here for the second act of the Pirate season.
Also, the Pens were a play-off contending organization that needed pushed into the championship… The Bucs are just fighting for a wild card. Not sure we can compare the two clubs and there situations… Although things might be different in a few years.
Plus, nothing would be more painful than watching Allie or Taillion for that matter become aces in 2015 and have to witness it on Sports Center every morning.
Disagree on the wild card
The Pirates have a much better chance of winning the division than they do getting the Wild Card. But I agree with your premise.
by Blyleven Curve Ball on Jul 13, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on a few points
While it would be painful to see Allie pitching elsewhere (I don’t prepose trading Taillion), I think that pain would be worth seeing the buccos in the playoffs. As the Giants showed last year, the most talented team doesn’t always win, its the team with confidence and whos on a roll. Lets roll the dice on Reyes, I like our chances.
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
and what if they mortage the future for Reyes...
and don’t make the playoffs and don’t break .500? I think getting rid of the depth that Huntington has spent three years building for a half season rental is extremely foolish…no offense. The Pirates are more concerned with being competitive every year, not just this year. Look how much of that depth has kept the team afloat this season with all of the injuries.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Allie
Can’t be traded until the anniversary of his signing, so August 15th, after the deadline.
he would just be a PTBNL
then named on August 15th as the player
OK
So how bout Brad Lincoln + Jeff Locke + Jody Mercer + PTBNL (Allie), this would be a sweet deal and while it might sting I think it would be worth it
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
It's still not worth it. We trade those guys
and when Maholm is gone next year we have no one to take his spot. Plus we trade our depth at SS for half a season then have no one anyone on the radar after D’arnaud and Ronny. Too much risk for so little reward.
We could very well get that far without adding him, so why jeopardize future success for something that we can achieve for a lot less
Trade value
Why, could someone please explain, were Pirates veteran players not worth much except failed prospects while other teams’ veteran players are now worth blue-chip performers in the upper minors (Marte, Mercer, etc.)?
I do not recall ever reading that the Pirates were expecting to get four prospects, including very highly-rated players, for anybody they put on the market.
And a lot of the players the Pirates put on the market had more than 3 months of service time left on their contracts, and therefore more value.
I say, forget dealing top-end prospects. Other teams can go through EXACTLY the same experience as Pirates fans in anticipating trades …. “Oh, maybe we will get David Wright. Nope, Ty freaking Wiggington.”
by BuccoFan21 on Jul 13, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
a. The players weren’t that good. Jose Reyes is more valuable than any 2 Pirates put together that were traded away.
No top Pirate prospect is being included, except Marte perhaps. The others are all in 7-8+ rangeby BurgherKing on Jul 13, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
ugh, apparently putting b. makes it bold
I’ll try some other numbering system next time…
by BurgherKing on Jul 13, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I find that using brackets [ ]
instead of parentheses or numbers works pretty well.
[ A } it doesn’t trigger any html tags
[ B ] They’re pretty easy on the eyes
[ c ] you can use upper or lower case
[ 4 ] as long as you use a space between the bracket and the letter or number
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 13, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
which Pirate veterans are you refering to?
by JSteelers86 on Jul 13, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
All of them
Huntington did a good job in targeting players who had more value then their teams believed (D-Cutch, McDonald, Hanrahan, etc.) but did NOT get top prospects in return. The top prospects received were Andy Laroche, who struggled with the Dodgers and could not beat out the eminently mediocre Casey Blake, and Jose Tabata, who was with the Yankees. The Yankees don’t give two sh*ts about prospects. Most teams liked Tabata’s potential, but had questions if he would develop power, have enough plate discipline to merit being a corner OF’er.
Slight Correction
Andy Laroche, who struggled with the Dodgers and could not beat out the eminently mediocre Casey Blake
Casey Blake was traded to the Dodgers on July 26, 2008. Andy LaRoche was traded to the Pirates on July 31, 2008.
If you wanted to argue that LaRoche could not supplant Blake DeWitt, a former first round selection of the Dodgers and fellow rookie on that squad, that’s one thing, but to say that LaRoche could not beat out a guy with whom he spent all of five concurrent days in the Dodgers organization is a little disingenuous.
Though it is true that the Dodgers basically got Casey Blake (for Carlos Santana!) in order to play instead of LaRoche.
I think BuccoFan has a good point, actually. The Bucs got four prospects, including one or two top guys, for Bay, and four prospects, including one top guy, for Nady and D. Marte. Nady and D. Marte were two players (and the Yankees don’t value their prospects that much), and Bay had a year and a half left on his contract. These four-prospect deals sound like the sort of package you get for Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee — and I think Lee was the only part-season rental in that group, and they didn’t give up any of their top three prospects.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 13, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see
where there’s a huge gap. Reyes is worth more than anything the Pirates traded, although Bay is close because he wasn’t simply a rental.
Now we don’t know who the PTBNL is obviously (I wonder if the OP doesn’t really understand how PTBNL works; for example, Allie would actually have to be a PTBNL.) For this scenario lets say the PTBNL is Dan Grovatt. So its Stetson Allie, Jordy Mercer, Brad Lincoln, and Grovatt for Reyes.
None of those guys are currently a top 100 guy. Say what you want, but Allie isn’t a top 100 guy on basically anyone’s list right now. If he his, he squeaks in. Mercer has had a semi-breakout year, especially with power, and he’s a nice SS option, but even at his peak probably will be around a league average SS, and that’s if he makes it at all. Lincoln is a former top prospect who’s still youngish, but profiles as no more as a #3 starter, as is probably a back-end guy if he makes it all. Grovatt is a flier OF prospect who’s already old for his league, and is doing well but not dominating.
For Nady and Marte (to the Yankees) we got Tabata, who was a consensus top 100 prospect, although he was on a downslide, and three pitchers, all with limited upside, but near the major leagues, with two (Ohlendorf and Karstens) pitching for the big-league club immediately.
Honestly, I’d take, four versus four, Tabata/Ohlendorf/Karstens/D. McCutchen over Allie/Mercer/Lincoln/Grovatt any day of the week. Even if you lean the other way, there is no way Nady/Marte was even close in value to the value Reyes currently holds.
As far as the Bay trade, LaRoche was a preseason top 35 prospect the year he was traded to us (31st according to Baseball America) and Bryan Morris was a first round pick two years prior putting up good numbers in Low-A ball as a 21 year old, a good #2 piece to a trade. Brandon Moss and Craig Hanson were both ML ready players with team control left as well.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 13, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
nice points
…but how much is he truly worth give his half a season of control? plus is he not injured right now?
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
additionally
lets just say we make allie the PTBNL, I’d still be happy to send them Locke who’s leading in K’s. For a half season of control I believe the deal could work if the PIRATES pull the trigger
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Player evaluation
You say now that you would prefer Tabata, etc. to Allie, etc. but the performance of Karstens, D-Cutch and Ohlendorf has colored your perspective. If those guys flamed out big-time and where consistently hammered in the majors, your take is different, I suspect.
Further, none of the four in the Yankee deal was drafted as high as Allie, or had as much of a potential ceiling.
Also, Laroche failed in three tries with the Dodgers. He was no longer even part of their plans. They played crap (Dewitt) and traded for more crap (Blake) to replace him.
Tabata was a top-100 prospect, but questions about his power, his age, and his attitude were significant. We now know how talented he is, but he had more question marks than kudos at the time he was dealt.
Finally, the suggestion is that we trade a potential dominant arm (Allie), a major-league ready SP (Lincoln), a power-hitting SS who is hitting in AA for 3 months of Reyes.
No, thanks.
Because
the Pirates veteran players weren’t, for the most part, very good.
And they definitely weren’t the caliber of a Reyes. Jason Bay had a total of 1.5 WAR for the Pirates in 2008 before he was traded. Reyes has 4.7.
You're discounting the extra year of control
Bay gave the Red Sox 6.3 WAR in the remainder of his contract. Reyes won’t provide that much.
This is apples-to-oranges, because a certain number of WAR over a season plus isn’t worth as much as it would be over a couple months, but still, packages like the one in the OP don’t seem to me to be in line with what teams have actually been getting for top players in deadline deals.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 13, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there is a chance for Reyes
Most teams don’t need a shortstop in the race. I think he is a guy Pirates could get on the last day for almost nothing if no other team offers anything. More realistic speaking. Pirates should save that money and stick with Cedeno. For the money you can’t do any better. Save that money to ink some of the younger guys for more years like Cutch. I am all for adding a bat or two to this team but I don’t want to give up a good prospect for a half year rental. I wouldn’t mind to see Beltran, Bay, or Reyes but don’t forget Mets are still over 500 and no idea they could close the gap on the braves.
by Joey Mooney on Jul 13, 2011 11:36 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
the SS to monitor might be furcal
he might be available in a salary dump, like KRod.
if the pirates are going to fill a hole, though, i’d rather it be pitcher… perhaps if the Rays fall out of contention, or decide to sell. Or the Rockies. Or Houston. Or Marlins…
Furcal may merit monitoring ...
But to do so, you have to set up a chair in the trainer’s room. The guy cannot – simply CANNOT – stay healthy, and that has been the case every year since 3 of the past 4 seasons, this year included. Also, his leg injuries have greatly reduced his range and his stolen bases – two of his biggest assets when he was a good player.
I just think if the Mets gave away Krod and CASH for 2 players… I am sure the price on Reyes won’t be vary much. I think they would take 2 prospects and maybe even give us cash as well
by PiratesFanSince1980 on Jul 13, 2011 11:55 AM EDT reply actions
no
Jose Reyes will get you 2 prospects back in the 2012 draft. That alone has value…
Also, the Mets would have had to use KRod to close triggering his 17M option. They needed to get out from under that…
the right comp might be Beltran
by BurgherKing on Jul 13, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
The KROD situation was totally different.
by Wizard of Woz on Jul 13, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
BurgherKing, I respect your opinions, they are always well-reasoned and thought-out but dont you think two prospects, not Taillon level prospects, would be worth a half season rental of Reyes? I believe it totally does, especially since the Pirates can’t protect everyone on the 40 man roster this upcoming year
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't think we get him for that.
Two B prospects aren’t going to do it. Leads the NL in WAR right now.
by Wizard of Woz on Jul 13, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
dont you think two prospects, not Taillon level prospects, would be worth a half season rental of Reyes?
I do, yes. However, it might significantly depend on who those guys are. For example, I’d expect the Mets would want one of D’Arnaud/Mercer, and one lower level higher ceiling player, such as Allie/Marte/Cain, etc plus a throw in or two, such as maybe a Mike Colla/Matt Curry.
The question really is 3-fold (in my opinion, of course):
[ 1 ] Do you really think the Pirates are close enough to contention that getting a rental for close to the bigs players is worth it?
[ 2 ] Is our farm deep enough that we can afford to give up these players for a move that is likely not going to take us to the playoffs? (Or, are the pieces uncertain enough that we move them)?
[ 3 ] Do we need the guys we trade to become major league players more than we need the 2 WAR (maybe 1 WA Ronny Cedeno) this year?
The answer to your questions
1 Yes, I do believe that they are close enough to compete. Its a weak division and I think a team with confidence and some talent can win it. I think building a winning culture is as important as anything else at this point.
2 Yes I believe our farm system is deep enough to handle the deal that I offered. Every single one of the prospects I proposed has value but is also replaceable. Lincoln is good but nothing extra special. I wouldn’t lost a lot of sleep over him. Allie, while extremely high ceiling, is still not a finished product and far from guaranteed. There are many high school pitchers who don’t make it. Plus we have other upside arms like Taillon and Cole. The combination of the two of them makes him more expendable. Combine all this with the fact the Pirates won’t be able to protect their entire farm system come Rule 5 Draft time next year, further indicating that the farm system is deep. In particular in the arms department. As far as Mercer is concerned I believe he is overrated and that his value right now is high due to his homeruns. This is a case of sell high for Mercer.
3 And I don’t think we need any of the guys in the future that I’m offering to trade. While they are all great farm system guys and wouldn’t give them up for nothing, none of them are lynch pin guys. Alvarez is a lynchpin guy. McCutchen is a lynchpin guy. Taillon is a lynchpin guy. Sanchez is a lynchpin guy. You can’t give any of those guys up because they aren’t replaceable. All those I’ve listed are, including Allie, as much as I like him.
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
well, yeah, but you're assuming the Mets will take that
They may insist on D’Arnaud and Sanchez. (Personally, I think I’d do that deal.)
I’d be more loath to give up Lincoln, because he is really the only backup we have right now for an injury/ineffectiveness to a pitcher in the starting rotation.
Off the Table
In my opinion, the only prospects that should be off the Table include: Taillon, Marte, Sanchez, Cole, and Bell (if by miracle he signs). Anyone else should permit the Pirates to get talking and I would be willing to part with a few of them for a half-season of Electric Baseball from Reyes…Imagine the speed. D’arnaud, McCutchen, Tabata, Presley, and…Reyes. No reason to keep Ciracio then
Bell
While I understand Bell is enrolling in summer class, I believe I heard that the kid from S. Carolina is doing so as well (Bradley, Jr.) — appears that with talks of hard slotting + international draft….perhaps Boras has added a new “tool” to his bargaining repertoire.
I still heard that Bell had some agreements in place with certain big-spending clubs that he would sign if drafted. I read that as: “if the price is right, I’m not going to be a Long Horn.” So I’m not going to label his signing as a “miracle”; I think there is an awful lot of positioning going on right now.
by insane_sanity on Jul 13, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets keep Reyes
I think the price of Reyes just skyrocketed with the trade of Rodriguez. They’ll use the money they are saving to resign him.
by Blyleven Curve Ball on Jul 13, 2011 1:39 PM EDT reply actions
That may be the case
But I don’t if the Mets will resign Reyes or not, Reyes may not be willing resign with the Mets in which case the Mets will get what they can out of him, I think the K-Rod deal is a sign of things to come. But agreed if the asking price is too high you can’t pursue it. None of the prospects I’ve listed above on the "off the table " comment should be considered.
by Josh D. Brown on Jul 13, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I am simply amazed!
That so many Bucs fans can suggest trading away Allie, Marte, Lincoln, even Sanchez to get Reyes for 60 games, like that guarentees us the division. Reyes is hitting .354 but lifetime he is a .291 hitter. I would rather get a AAA 1B who is blocked or just bring up Hague.
by fatbastard on Jul 13, 2011 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Why would you do this deal?
It doesn’t make any sense. Even if we are close enough to make the playoffs there’s no need to make the type of trades that bring great players here for a half a year, while gutting the farm system. We need to make sensible moves, without trading away top prospects or big name big leaguers.
NO!
you dont trade top prospects for rental players. period. no way we sign reyes. only thing if your giving up anything more than a b prospect and a couple of c guys you lose. if i even make an offer it would be along the lines of gorkys and a ciriaco throw in one of the young arms like a stevenson or something. and thats it. if they say hell no(likely) then you move on. allie is a top 5 prospect dont trade him for a rental
See, I think if you are the kind of team that is going to compete year after year, you can make this statement. But when you haven’t been competetive in 18 years, and you find yourself 1 game out of first place in a winnable division, you have to make a run at it. I’m not saying you gut the farm system, but I am saying you have to make some effort at improving the team.
The thing is, I would have no problem “losing” a trade if it means we have a better chance (not even a guarantee) of making the playoffs.
i get ya
we dont know when this opportunity will present itself again, but you start trading the future and you can be sure we will have another 18 losing years. i want to make a run at it, but there are better trade options for a better price. Allie is the future and he could be a big part, if your not getting someone who will be here for years to make up for the loss then you set your self up for failure.
If you want to keep being competitive...
once every 18 years than by all means, go ahead and make these kind of deals. Fortunately Huntington has stated that his goals is for the Pirates to be competitive every year.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I’m not suggesting gutting the farm system. But if you can add a significant piece for the cost of a few prospects you have to take it. As a fan, if they don’t make some type of move for this year, I’ll be furious.
As a fan...
if they trade any of the prospects mentioned in this thread I’ll be pissed. Our system is not as deep as everyone thinks it is.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I Agree-NFW
Such a trade is stupid. THis is a fantasy league type trade, not a real world trade.
Yunz are crazy
I posted this on the other Fanpost but meant to post it here.
I didn’t want to make a new fanpost for this but some of you are crazy about who could be had for the Bucs, I took a quick look at the standings and rosters, here are some position players I think are candidates. Some guys I think could help, others maybe might not even be upgrades in the least but I think could be brought over in the range of what the FO would be willing to give up to get them. No Reyes, No Loney, No other players that truly stink or will take 4 of top 10 prospects to get them, No AA prospects that for some reason people think are upgrades to what we already have, just guys I think could be traded for at the price we would be willing to pay, didn’t look at pitchers or catchers so none on the list.
KC- Francoeur
Oak- Willingham
Fla- Cameron, NOT Hanley
Hou- Lee, NOT Pence as had been crazily mentioned
LAD- Furcal, injured a lot but they prob would dump salary for little return
SD- Ludwick, Bartlett, Bartlett having down year but good defense and could rebound outside Petco
ChC- Ramirez, Pena
NYM- Beltran
Det- Ordonez
LAA- Izturis
If Bartlett was our SS, we'd be trying to trade for Ronny
Best evidence is that he does not have good defense. This is his third straight year with negative UZR, and he’s been negative for three years in total zone too. And while moving out of Petco would probably improve his hitting line a little — right now it’s worse than Ronny’s — it wouldn’t be enough to make up for his glove. Do not want.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 13, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, and thanks for not making this a new Fanpost
I agree with the “no stinky players, no cleaning out the farm system.” It’s just that I think Bartlett is stinky. It looks like 2009 was an up year more than this year is a down year — he hit nearly as many home runs in 2009 as in the rest of his career combined.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 13, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
How about this???
The Pirates obtain Jose Reyes in trade, and the next day, the Steelers sign Nnamdi Asomugha??
All this chat about
something that ain’t gonna happen. The farm system is the future of the PBC. Reyes isn’t. Cedeno has been OK this year; he’s not the weak link that he was. I don’t see us trading for anything but a corner banger or a 1 or 2 SP.
My heros have always been Steelers...
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