Behold the wonders the Gods of Baseball can work

by steve_z on Jul 15, 2011 11:27 PM EDT

I wouldn't bet my life on the Pirates finishing above the McClatchy Line (.500). Yet, here we stand after the first post-All Star game of the season.

	Team	Wins	Losses	GB	Pct.
1	Pirates	48	43	-	.527
1	Brewers	49	44	-	.527
1	Cardinals	49	44	-	.527
4	Reds	46	47	3	.495
5	Cubs	38	56	11.5	.404
6	Astros	30	63	19	.323

I'd bet that, years from now, the 2011 season will will be remembered as an anomaly, much as Pirates fans recall the Freak Show today. But the difference between the two seasons is also a large one: This is the season when Pirates became respectable, interesting and full of promise. And help -- via a trade or a return to health of the injured -- may be on its way.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Brewers lost. They are .521 now.

So it’s PIT and STL in first. Rocks.

Thus Spake Bluecheerathustra

by bluecheer on Jul 15, 2011 11:32 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, baby!

by maguro on Jul 15, 2011 11:53 PM EDT reply actions

20th anniversary

of double worst-to-first by Braves and Twins, culminating in one of the best World Series ever.

To dreaaaam the impossible dreaaaaam …

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:15 AM EDT reply actions

Try to be a little more positive

I think they can win more than 33 games the rest of the way. And why does this year have to be an anomaly? Just maybe, they finally have a plan that is working.

by BarryJT on Jul 16, 2011 12:39 AM EDT reply actions

WOOOOOOHOOOOOOO!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=av8NTy5WkFc

Just got back from hp, now going to watch Karstens the Magnificent

by Mr. E on Jul 16, 2011 12:40 AM EDT reply actions

Let me explain to you all what tonight means to me

My title probably indicates that I am some older and long suffering fan who is simply overwhelmed by what is happening right now. True and false. I am not older, nor am I long suffering, but I am simply overwhelmed with happiness for what’s happening.

I’m a 21 year old senior in college. I did not grow up in Pittsburgh. I do not have any IMMEDIATE family from Pittsburgh. I do not root for the Steelers or the Penguins, only the Pirates. Long story short— my cousin married a man from Pittsburgh who I grew extremely close to from a young age. By being so close with him, I became close with his brother who is a die hard Buccos fan. I have never had a professional baseball team I’ve supported. I’ve always loved the MLB and followed it extensively, but I’ve never had a team to stake claim to. To be honest, me pledging an allegiance to a professional sports team has never really been my thing, it’s always been in supporting my college teams. Regardless, this person who i grew close to who has been a fan his entire life (since the late 80s is when he really became a die hard) somehow converted me into a die hard.

So do you know when the first year I followed the Pirates intensely was? 2009. I jumped on the bandwagon when we went 62-99. Then I only started to follow them even more intensely the following year when we stumbled to a miserable 57 wins. People called me crazy and had zero clue why this kid from Washington, D.C. was becoming a fanatic about the laughing stock of professional baseball. I explained to them how I believed in our management, in our players. I told them maybe not today, maybe not in year, but you will soon witness this team making an impact. They laughed and continued to be ignorant and I continued to watch every game. Spending hours on the phone every week talking to my cousin about the Pirates, about the farm system, the coaches, the management and how we remained optimistic.

Three years ago I made a commitment to begin supporting a team that nobody in my life could understand. Now, maybe they are starting to understand. So tonight is sweet vindication for me and my commitment. I know we still have a long way to go, but for right now, I’m choosing to live in the moment. For those of you who have suffered for years and years longer then I have— infinite respect for you for sticking things out. Furthermore, thank you for accepting me. As you can tell from this post, I am pretty much the opposite of a bandwagon fan.

by Zach Buccos on Jul 16, 2011 2:07 AM EDT reply actions 8 recs

Very well said

I’m usually pessimistic about a lot of things, but it feels good to live in the moment today and bask in the glow of first place. I’ll rec the bejeezus out of this…

by bruinbowler on Jul 16, 2011 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions

awesome.

by mak_DC on Jul 16, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

nice story

as a Pirates fan in six decades now (‘60s-’10s), let me welcome you aboard. I love it that you became a NR (non-resident) Bucs fan in one of the bad years. Very cool.

Remember, we were major underdogs/overachievers in ‘60 and ’71 and even ’79, so it’s ok to root for GREAT success for this team.

by ImmaculatePerception on Jul 16, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

Welcome aboard, matey!

bucdaddy, class of ’66

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

wozzle, class of 58

I got to see it all – well, not the 20s…

My heros have always been Steelers...

by wozzle on Jul 16, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

right there with you

from the burgh, been following them since my dad took me to my first game back in like 96. i’m 20 so I KNOW EXACTLY HOW YOU FEEL. we said.

by bbautista24 on Jul 16, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

well said*

by bbautista24 on Jul 16, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Woot!

I’ve been a fan since I saw Willie Stargell windmilling his bat in the left hand batters box during the 1979 World Series when I was 6 years old. To be honest, I don’t care how many wins this team puts up in the second half. All that matters to me right now is that I am excited for Pirates baseball……….in July! I picked ’em in April to go 76-86, and I was going to be very happy with that. I do think that the FO has a plan that is working; exhibit A has been the ability to plug holes with young players. Exhibit B is having a manager that gives consistent playing time. Pearce will help if/when he returns.

I am trying to get my wife to realize the importance of this being tied for first business, but she smiles and nods. Oh well! Nothing can be perfect. I’m just gonna bask in the 24 Flavors of Awesome that Is Jeff Karstens. If we trade anyone, I vote that it be Greg Brown.

Anyone coming to the Bay Area for the Giants series in August? If so, drop me a line!

by Omnibarn on Jul 16, 2011 3:02 AM EDT reply actions

" I am trying to get my wife to realize the importance of this being tied for first business, but she smiles and nods."

Pretty much exactly how it is around the Cocktailsfor2 household, as well.

I think she is starting to understand it a little better now, though. Perhaps going to The Gathering a second time has helped.

You should get your Mrs. to come with you next year.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

rec'd

for referring to your whole family in the third person, or is it third people, and not sounding dewshy in the process.

moseltov

by white angus on Jul 16, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

I live in Oakland

I was planning on going to the Tues night and Wed day games, but haven’t gotten tix yet.

I’m going to have a great early August. I’m flying to Philly to meet up with my brother and another friend, then we’ll drive to Altoona for a Curve game (I think it’s on the 4th), then on to Pittsburgh for my first game ever at PNC. The next night it’s off to State College for a Spikes game, then back to Bay Area on Monday in time for the Bucs/Giants series. I’m very psyched for this trip.

So, yeah, Omnibarn, It’d be fun to meet up with another Bucs fan in SF. Let’s email.

by ImmaculatePerception on Jul 16, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Tuesday

If you end up in the PBC section, we’re in 222 C1&2

by crusty on Jul 16, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

One of us ... one of us ... one of us ...

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

One of us ... one of us ...one of us ...

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

We accept you...one of us...

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I'm so excited!

In 10 hours I will be headed down to Houston for the games Saturday and Sunday. Last year I saw the Bucs play 2 games in San Fran and 2 games in Dallas. The Giants games were early in the season and I got to see one of Morton’s blowups. By the games in Dallas, things were really grim.

It’s hard to imagine that I will be watching the first place Pirates looking to gain sole possession of first!

Crazy!

by MarkInDallas on Jul 16, 2011 3:26 AM EDT reply actions

Lots of pictures, please!

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Have Fun Mark!

If you can, could you post a bit about your experience in Houston. I have friends down there and my wife and I have been talking about seeing a game there. Would love your commentary on the sites, eateries, bars, and the park.

by JSteelers86 on Jul 16, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

That's not a charity 1st Place either

We’re percentage points (rounded down) over .527, the Cardianls are a few ten thousandths (I think) of a point under .527 and are rounded up.

What does that mean?!

by Trogluddite on Jul 16, 2011 8:43 AM EDT reply actions

Projections

Coolstandings now has us at 36.1% chance of making the playoffs – best in the division. Let that sink in a little bit.

B-P’s Adjusted standings still don’t like us much, but then they have determined that the Brewers, outscored 422-408, are really a .500 team. Uh-huh.

One last note: coolstandings predicts 86 wins for us. 86! The fact that we’ve done all thisª without Pedro, Tabata, or any of our 3 best catchers is just mind-blowing.

ª Our record since Pedro and the Cs got hurt is much better than before; not suggesting causation, just timing

by JRoth95 on Jul 16, 2011 9:06 AM EDT reply actions

I can't remember the name

but Yahoo posts links to some prediction site that had us at 0.0% when we were like 3 or 4 games back. As we continued to win they raised it. Excuse me? You put us at zero, you don’t get to change your mind now. I’m probably more upset about it than I should be.

by Mr. E on Jul 16, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

“I’m probably more upset about it than I should be”

I find myself saying that a lot. Then I just remember what Bucdaddy and Bill Murray say; It just doesn’t matter, it just doesn’t matter……….

by MDBuc on Jul 16, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

That would be “AccuScore”. From what I understand they supposedly simulate the remaining games many times to come up with their percentages. Once the Pirates lose like four games in a season they always go down to 0.0%.

Jason
The Hanging Curve

by poorboywilly on Jul 17, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Baseball Prospectus

bases its projections on their PECOTA system. It’ll not like a starting rotation that strikes out too few hitters. I believe it also takes into account pre-2011 performance. That wouldn’t help at all!

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Jul 16, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

BP has 2 lists

The one you refer to – which heavily weights preseason predictions and such – is pretty useless except as a vague reminder of teams who are over/underachieving.

But the other one is analogous to coolstandings, except that, in addition to showing the PythagPat record, they also calculate expected RS/RA (and resulting Pthag) based on peripherals. On the one hand, it strains out some luck – if a team has suffered a stretch of crazy-high HR/FB, it regresses that out – on the other, it can be in a bit of denial about what’s actually happened. Not all “luck” evens out over the course of 162 games, and there’s limited utility in telling a team with a 850/800 RS/RA ratio that they were really a 77-85 team.

by JRoth95 on Jul 16, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

One thing on regressions

I was reading Posnanski’s analysis of lineups that are better and worse at getting their best hitters up with runners on base. He notes that, while JBautista gets up with a ton of runners on, he has mediocre RBI numbers. Why? Because he gets IBB’d, of course. And that’s never going to regress – it’s not luck-driven, or even skill-driven; it’s strategy (remember the old line – luck is the residue of planning). But analyses like BP’s cling a little too tightly to the idea that all variations from expected results are luck-driven. Which is fine in the aggregate, but I think people tend to forget the caveats that come with advanced statistical analysis.

by JRoth95 on Jul 16, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I have said it about 5-6 time already...

They will win the World Series this year. They are a team of destiny.

It doesn’t cost a thing to believe and the payoff on a winner is huge!

by pantherboy on Jul 16, 2011 9:10 AM EDT reply actions

More notes

I hadn’t realized that the Brewers suck on the road this year: 16-31, outscored 229-161. I might add that that’s the kind of run differential that stretches Pyhtagorean records – I think it’s within the zone, but barely.

On the flip side, at home they’ve outscored opponents by 247-193, and they’re 33-14. I’d say that kind of home/road sp[lit can’t be sustained, except that I was a Pirates fan last year.

All this leads me to be very pissed at the scheduling gods that we play 9 games in MIL and they play 6 games here. What kind of bullshit is that? [It’s also stupid that we go 3 full months without seeing a division rival, but I’m used to that crap.]

by JRoth95 on Jul 16, 2011 9:25 AM EDT reply actions

"... we play 9 games in MIL "

which affords me the opportunity to see them more often!

(That’s about the only positive I can take away from the scheduling.)

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

And the last three games of the season are at Miller Park.

My Dad lives in the Windy City so I’m already checking air fares and availability from London to Chicago.

I wore a Pirates hat to a season opener in Milwaukee about five years ago and met some nice people but was generally ridiculed for being a Bucs fan and being English.

A shot at .500 during the last series would be cool …. anything more would be fucking special!

by RDV across the sea on Jul 16, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Keep me posted -

I’d love to meet up for a drink and a game!

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Me too.

I’ll probably book something before the start of August – barring a monumental collapse.

by RDV across the sea on Jul 16, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Here’s a nice yahoo blog fail for those of you who hate the yahoo blogs(not me, but I know many do). #1, about the Bucs being in 1st place: " The Jolly Ranger is flying high ". Welcome to the bandwagon Mr. Mark Townsend.

by Akshay R on Jul 16, 2011 9:44 AM EDT reply actions

The first comment is sweet

Green Apple for me, thanks.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 16, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Beat me to it.

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

by Akshay R on Jul 16, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll bet nobody ever thought the Flaming Lips had anything to do with the Pirates,

but the song “A Spoonful Weighs a Ton” seems to be about the 2011 Bucs’ season:

Live version

And though they were sad
They rescued everyone
They lifted up the sun
A spoonful weighs a ton
Giving more than they had
The process had begun
A million came from one
The limits now were none

Being drunk on their plan, they lifted up the sun

Forcing it off with their hands
The trapdoor came undone
Above our heads it swung
The privilege had been won

Being drunk on their plan, they lifted up the sun

Yelling as hard as they can
The doubters all were stunned
Heard louder than a gun
The sound they made was love

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

great

love the FLips.
other (slightly paraphrased) lips lyrics that may describe being a Pirates fan in 2011:

“I’ve been waiting on a moment, and that moment finally came”

“all your bad days will end”

“suddenly… everything has changed”

and for JK: “do you realize… that you have the most beautiful face”

by ImmaculatePerception on Jul 16, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

His name is McCutchen
He can levitate a baseball
Starring on the Pirates
Who are in FIRST PLACE, y’all
‘cause he know that
it’d be tragic
if those evil Brewers win

McCutchen
They don’t believe us
But you won’t let those Brewers beat us
McCutchen
They don’t believe us
But you won’t let those Brewers defeat us

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 16, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

*knows/know

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Jul 16, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh, the Bucs are goin' all the way,

All the way,
All the way, yes
The Bucs are goin’ all the way,
All the way this year.

- RIP Benny Benack

Oh, yeah – Break out the Green Wienie!

RIP Bob Prince and Jim Woods.

My heros have always been Steelers...

by wozzle on Jul 16, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

How cool would it be.....

…..to see the Green Weenie resurrected? The Green Weenie has much good juju…..

What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. ~Leo Durocher

by dr_roxtar on Jul 16, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah!

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

The Gunner would be loving this season.

by Thunder on Jul 16, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Who holds the copyright to the thing?

Heinz? Anyone? I checked the online copyright catalog. There is no record for it after 1978. If someone copyrighted it in 1966, their title would have expired.

Hmmmm

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Jul 16, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought Prince did, but Wikipedia indicated that no one trademarked it. Of course, Wikipedia has been known to be wrong in the past.

by Thunder on Jul 16, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

[citation?]

by JRoth95 on Jul 16, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

“What a wonderful World”

by Mr. E on Jul 16, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Flaming Lips*

One of us … one of us … one of us …

*—Don’t know who I was watching when the Lips played the one Lollapalooza I ever went to (‘94), but it wasn’t them. Maybe when I was up front for George Clinton …

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Crucial Observation

I just want to point out how happy I am that there is serious discussion of The Flaming Lips in this thread. The Bucs and The Flaming Lips, two essentials of my life.

by Zach Buccos on Jul 16, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Cheers to that

It made me put them on. Cheers to the lips too for Embryonic, best thing they’ve done for a while.

by Mr. E on Jul 16, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

My pleasure, sir!

Now – go listen to “Lightning Strikes the Postman.”

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 16, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I counter with a lil diddy by Radiohead

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrpGhEVyrk0

“Kid A, Kid A, Kid A, Kid A
Everything, everything, everything, everything..
In its right place
In its right place
In its right place
Right place

Yesterday I woke up sucking a lemon
Yesterday I woke up sucking a lemon
Yesterday I woke up sucking a lemon
Yesterday I woke up sucking a lemon

Everything, everything, everything..
In its right place
In its right place
Right place

There are two colours in my head
There are two colours in my head
What is that you tried to say?
What was that you tried to say?
Tried to say.. tried to say..
Tried to say.. tried to say..

Everything in its right place"

With references to Andrew McCutchen (Kid A), the Black and Gold, the bitter taste of seasons past, and telling Smizikians to shove it, I feel this is quite apt.

by Mr. E on Jul 16, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

The model is sustainable.

Young, productive, affordable core, including one of the games real stars. Supplemented by pieces that contribute. Above average SP and RP. Guys who can throw and catch. It may not come together year and year, but it’s at least plausible for the period of time that the core is solid.

by Horace Clarke on Jul 16, 2011 10:23 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

And they compete in NL Central

by Horace Clarke on Jul 16, 2011 10:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

... for now.

I used to notice than when anyone in the Steelers’ division started to become any good (Jacksonville, Tennessee) they immediately got moved elsewhere. I figured the Rooneys had pictures of Tagliabue in a dress.

I can see Selig next year going, “Oh my, the Pirates winning our division? We can’t have this. Here, play the Phillies and Braves 18 times each.”

by bucdaddy on Jul 16, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions