In Neil Walker's Defense...

by SuperBaes on Jul 17, 2011 4:04 AM EDT

After watching Neil Walker make a pretty spectacular grab to rob Jason Michaels, I started wondering how bad he's actually been at 2nd base this year. He's had a reputation for most of his professional career as being a poor fielder; first at catcher, then 3rd base, now at 2nd. He occaisonally makes some poor decisions, but how has he been all year?

Again, all statistics courtesy of BBRef and FanGraphs...

Neil Walker played his first professional game at 2nd base in 2010, his age 24 season and his 7th professional season. He played 21 games there, making 1 error for a .990 fielding % and a 4.67 range factor/game.

He premiered at 2nd for the Pirates later that year, making 7 errors over 105 games (all fielding, none throwing) for a .985 fielding % (league average was .984) and compiling a 4.34 RF/G (league average was 4.73) Slightly below average, but not horrendous, especially considering he'd played all of 21 games at 2B professionally before then.

He's doing even better in 2011. Over 89 games (not including tonight), he's made 4 errors (all throwing) for a .991 fielding % (league average is .985) and a 4.99 RF/G (league average is 4.74). He leads NL second basemen in putouts, RF/G, and range factor/9 innings. He's 2nd in putouts,3rd in assists, and 4th in fielding %. He's 3rd among 2B (behind Orlando Cabrera and Dan Uggla) in UZR at -5.2. He even appears (very lowly) on this unofficial Web Gem scoreboard.

Brandon Phillips won the Gold Glove last year and probably will again this year (only because name recognition is the most important factor in that voting). Maybe Walker doesn't belong in that conversation (although his .1 dWAR is the same as Phillips'), but he's definitely outplayed his reputation as a butcher in the field.

Note: I know that errors and fielding % aren't accurate indicators of actual fielding prowess, but the advanced metrics (even though they seem to agree with me) are a little more difficult to quantify and digest.

Baes

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

another reason that UZR should not be the bible for fielding prowess

we all know Neil has below average range, but he is not a poor defender.

by white angus on Jul 17, 2011 7:59 AM EDT reply actions

Ummm

If you actually looked at Walker’s UZR data and compared him to his peers, you’d see that the data shows that Walker has poor range, and his UZR rating suffers because he has poor range.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Jul 17, 2011 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Sorry...

Should have been “3rd worst” behind Cabrera and Uggla.

by SuperBaes on Jul 17, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Walker is the man!

I cannot believe this post. Walker is a fantastic ATHLETE and has played very solid first base in the field and been our number 3,4,5 guy in the line-up. What the heck do you guys want? He is very high in number of chances, turns the double play and has VERY few errors. Get real Bucco fans. It is great to have a BAT at second who is also solid in the field.

by pittsburghdad6 on Jul 17, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions

It isn't his bat that we are questioning, it's his range

We do not have high K pitchers, so of course he’s going to get opportunities, and we have pitchers that let people get on first and groundballers at that that help him get more double plays as well. Fact is, that if a ball is hit in his zone, he is less likely than the average second baseman to get to that ball. Whether it’s his positioning, athleticism, etc. that is an undeniable FACT. UZR might not tell you who the best defenders are, but it does tell you which defenders have gotten to the most balls in their zone in the past. Throughout this year, Walker hasn’t been great at getting to the ball. That simple

by Justin Mos on Jul 17, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not a fact

because it doesn’t tell you what each player’s “zone” is. It assumes it is the same for each player. Positioning and other random events are enough to sway it from being close to fact.

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Do you even understand how UZR works?

If a player gets a ball “out of their zone” it isn’t ignored, and if he misses one “just outside the zone” it isn’t ignored either. Now, UZR isn’t perfect because positioning and how hard the ball is hit aren’t taken into account, as well as teammates reaching the ball instead of you, (I’d say this effects outfielders more than infielders, and Walker can’t use great D by Overbay to point to as his problem because Overbay has had even worse range according to UZR) but it tells you when compared to other players if he is reaching the batted ball. He has not reached the ball, that is the fact. Does that mean he is a horrible defender, not guaranteed, but it does tell you that for one reason or another, the position of second base has not been defended as adequately in Pittsburgh as it has been in other cities.

That means that either Walker has had an abnormal amount of bad luck in batted balls being hit hard, or his positioning has been off, or he has bad range in getting balls, or a combination of the above.

by Justin Mos on Jul 18, 2011 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions

“Walker has had an abnormal amount of bad luck in batted balls being hit hard, or his positioning has been off, or he has bad range in getting balls, or a combination of the above.”

Yes. And I think you underestimate the “luck” factor in this over 170 games. I also agree he does not have above average range though.

“Fact is, that if a ball is hit in his zone, he is less likely than the average second baseman to get to that ball.”

False. Everyone is given the same zone so there is no way to know this.

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions

OK, I should've said this

Fact is, if a ball is hit in the general direction of where a second baseman is expected to stand, he is less likely to reach it than the average second baseman, and any ability to reach a ball outside of his zone has not been able to compensate for this by saving enough runs to make up for his lack of reaching balls in said zone where a second baseman is expected to catch the ball.

Sorry if my earlier wording was poor, this wording might be slightly more confusing, but probably more accurate.

by Justin Mos on Jul 18, 2011 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't second basemen normally all stand on the first base side of second base?

Generally, it is the second baseman’s job to get to any ball from a third of the way from first to second until the second base bag. Wherever they stand in between there, they should get to about 70% of those balls. If they don’t, they are either positioned incorrectly, are slow getting to them, or have seen an inordinate amount of hard contact their way.

Considering we are asking the question of whether half of our pitching staff is able to induce weaker contact than their peripherals suggest, it seems weird to simultaneously suggest that one of our defenders has actually seen more than his share of hard contact.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, it does account for teammates reaching the ball instead of you.

by tobynotjason on Jul 18, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

UZR is all about range. That’s what the zone rating means — if you can catch a ball, good, but you better get to the ball first.

Thank you Ned Colletti.

by ryebr3ad on Jul 17, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

i knew someone would chime in... surprised it took so long

:-P

by white angus on Jul 17, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Walker was considered an excellent fielding thirdbaseman when in the minors

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Jul 17, 2011 8:18 AM EDT reply actions

Yep.

It wasn’t until we drafted Pedro that they considered moving off third, IIRC…

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 17, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I thought the move off of third

was necessitated when Aki pooped the bed. There may have been talk of Walker to the outfield but I don’t recall any talk of second base.

by MDBuc on Jul 17, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Walker was already off of 3B when 2010 started. he literally was the utility guy down in Indy, except he did play every day.

he didnt really start playing full time 2nd base until 2 weeks before his promotion

by white angus on Jul 17, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Walker was off 3B at Indy...

when 2010 started…because there was some guy named Pedro Alvarez playing there. Walker wasn’t bumping a $6M guy off 3B.

by Thunder on Jul 17, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

and Andy

who was still an adequate 3B at the time. Funny we all thought it would be Luigi who moved to 2B.

by Mr. E on Jul 17, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

At that point,

Andy was coming off a September of hitting .313/.359/.552. Walker was coming off his 2nd straight down year at AAA.

If Aki and Andy would have produced at the MLB level, we would have had a little log-jam. Instead, we were forced to give Walker a shot.

by H2O on Jul 17, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

we could have tried him in RF

whats the worst that could happen

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Remember that long road once more, then kiss it...kiss it goodbye
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by WVPiratesfan on Jul 17, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

but then we'd lose Milledge!

by Mr. E on Jul 17, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah -

wasn’t talking about 2B…

They were moving him into a “super-utility” role, incl. OF when they drafted Pedro.

2B was thrust upon him ’cause of Aki, for sure.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 17, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

thats a pretty significant jump in his range factor, i wonder what he did differently to change that, positioning?

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Jul 17, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions

This post has bad information.

He’s not 3rd in UZR, of 2B with over 200 innings played he is actually 37th out of 40. IIRC, he set the all time minor league past balls record as a catcher, he has moderately to very weak range going to right, his arm is not strong, and he’s allowed a number of infield hits against that were terrible, including during the Morton start down in Florida. He hasn’t been a good defender since at least high school, the appeal has always been with his bat.

Don’t get me wrong I like the guy, but let’s not fool ourselves. We have a league average hitting second basemen (based on all positions not just second basemen) with poor defense.

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jul 17, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions

He was the consensus best defensive 3B in AAA

So please, please don’t say factually wrong things like, “He hasn’t been a good defender since at least high school.” It makes you look ignorant.

by JRoth95 on Jul 17, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

PS

If his arm was strong enough to be a plus defender at 3B, it’s presumably strong enough to throw 90’.

by JRoth95 on Jul 17, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Considering Ive played on the same team as him and trained with him

Id venture to say I would be less ignorant than you concerning his defensive ability.

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jul 17, 2011 3:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

oh really?

Where did you play with him? Indy? Altoona? Single A?

Please man. We get it. You know (probably more like knew) Neil Walker. You played with him in high school. News flash—that was 7 years ago. I’m thinking that he’s changed juuuuuust a little bit after going through the professional ranks all the way to the MAJOR LEAGUES.

Criticize for whatever reason you want, but chill with the name-dropping.

by nickp593 on Jul 17, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Stats say my conclusions are correct

The only arguments for his defense are those based on feelings.

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jul 17, 2011 5:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm guessing his 3rd base defense might be able to be statistically backed up as at least average

If we actually HAD good minor league defensive statistics. We don’t have enough minor league data for defense, and that’s annoying.

On the subject of his arm though, yes, it is really good, as I’ve mentioned before his arm was the only one in the WPIAL that was able to throw out one of my brothers teammates. He might not have been the best a blocking the ball, but man he had a gun in high school, I don’t know where you got the impression he didn’t if you played with him.

by Justin Mos on Jul 17, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Walker is not poor defensively. if anything, hes improving.

is he really good? no. is he poor? no.

by white angus on Jul 17, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

As JRoth95 pointed out he is considered an excellent third baseman. For his major league career so far he is at 111 OPS+ and 109 wRC+. It would appear to me that thus far in his career he has been decidedly above average with the bat.

Jason
The Hanging Curve

by poorboywilly on Jul 17, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I also though it was obvious that was a typo about best/worst. I mean, he did say negative 5.2 and that Uggla was ahead of him…

by Mr. E on Jul 17, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Also

just because he is 37th doesn’t mean he has poor defense. UZR is based on all the current 2B, not an actual standard. It’s sort of like RBI in that sense because your rating will change without your performance changing at all. I think he is just fine on defense.

by Mr. E on Jul 17, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't that why it is called "below average?"

We compare hitters the same way. OPS+, RC+ are compared against the average hitter in the league. There has to be a standard, so comparing him to the average defender at his position seems like a reasonable standard.

What exactly are we comparing him to if not that? Or is there some kind of divine standard we are comparing him to? Maybe Moses forgot to write that commandment down.

by element1286 on Jul 17, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

The standard is

does he make most of the plays? Yes, he does.

by Mr. E on Jul 17, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

By that standard

You could tell that a batter is bad because he makes an out most of the time.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

C'mon

offense and defense in baseball are so much different. Obviously the FO and coaching staff also agree he is adequate. I know it’s subjective but I trust guys that have been in baseball all their life to judge this sort of thing.

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm guessing the front office thinks he's adequate defensively in the same way the Cardinals think Lance Berkman is an adequate outfielder

I think that the front office and coaching staff might think a player is a poor fielder but believe that their bat and lack of internal options still can make that player worth starting.

by Justin Mos on Jul 18, 2011 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Very true

but if Lance Berkman had a .700 OPS 3 months into the season I highly doubt he would still be playing RF for the Cards. If Walker had a .620 OPS right now I would have to think 2010 was a fluke and seriously consider benching him.

I also didn’t account for youth though. A team could start Walker (without a better alternative) also based on future projection.

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 3:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, offense and defense are different

in the sense that on offense the norm is to fail to get a hit in over 70% of your at bats, whereas on defense the norm is that you get the batter out in 70% of the balls hit near you.

As such, "making most of the plays" is not a good standard to judge a defender. A good defender is one that makes more plays than the average defender would make, and that’s what UZR tells you.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

You have Maz, Brandon Phillips, Bret Boone, Robbie Alomar

one of those four is going to be the worst and another will be “below average.” Does that make any of them poor at defense?

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Lyle Overbay is not poor at hitting when compared to most minor leaguers, nor to most MLB shortstops. But he is below average when compared to other MLB 1Bs. You have to compare players to other peers and what is expected of them at their position. There’s no use in comparing Walker’s defense to mine. Yes, he’s amazingly excellent compared to my own defense at second base.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Are those not all peers?

He can be fine defensively and be below average compared to other people who play 2B for other teams.

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

If his bat makes up for runs lost from his defense, then yes, that could be acceptable.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree

Barry Bonds’ bat would have made up for putting him at SS or C, but would any team do that? No because he’s not adequate at either of those spots.

by Mr. E on Jul 19, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Neil walker is batting like .450 this month

Is that defense enough? I find it useful. He’s not a butcher in the field either.

by jimmutt on Jul 17, 2011 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t understand how you arrived at those conclusions.

Walker has a .792 RZR, placing him above only Kelly Johnson, Dan Uggla, and Aaron Hill.
His DPR is -2.8, worst in the majors.
His RngR is -3.7, above only Dan Uggla and Orlando Cabrera.
His UZR is -5.2, again above Uggla and Cabrera.
However, his ErrR is 1.3, solidly in the middle of the pack.

So, Walker has awful range, and can’t turn double plays. He is good at avoiding errors, but he can’t exactly improve his range much. He can work on turning double plays, but his range is bad and that isn’t going to change. He is a poor defender, and will likely continue to be a poor defender.

by thecheeseisblue on Jul 17, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Great post.

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jul 17, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but

he’s not Orlando Cabrera.

Small victories!

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 18, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Walker looks fine turning the double play... much better than last season.

the key for him is positioning himself per the hitter, which is also up to his coaches.

enough with the UZR stuff. Walker has improved. End of discussion.

by white angus on Jul 18, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, absolutely Walker has improved.

I don’t know that proclaiming the end of discussion will actually end the discussion, however. This is, after all, a forum for discussing the important issues of the Pirates, of which Neil Walker’s defense is certainly one of the important issues.

Interestingly, there seems to have been a recent update to UZR stats on fangraphs. Previously, Walker’s UZR was about -1.5 for every month. Now, his April has been upgraded to -1.0, May to -0.9 and June to -0.9.

As a result of that, he now has a UZR/150 of ~~3.3, which is obviously just below average. This also jives with his +/~~ rating of -3.

I have been saying all along that I thought Walker was going to be able to stick at 2B because his bat would make up for the below average defense.

That said, I got the chance to watch Walker in person the last 2 games in Houston. I really did not see any kind of "good" defender in the sense that I got the feeling his movements were a bit slow to the ball. Even on the seemingly fine leaping catch he made (I think yesterday), it looked like a quicker player could have played it easier.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Gah. stupid auto cross out! Let's try this...

As a result of that, he now has a UZR/150 of -3.3, which is obviously just below average. This also jives with his +/ rating of – 3.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

one more time...

As a result of that, he now has a UZR/150 of – 3.3, which is obviously just below average. This also jives with his +/- rating of – 3.

by MarkInDallas on Jul 18, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

psst....

“jibes,” not “jives.”

Very opposite meanings.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 18, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Being a metric based guy

I’m going to wait until the end of the season so I can get a decent sample size

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Twitter: @shanecglass

by glass0941 on Jul 17, 2011 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

What about the results from last season?

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jul 17, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

as his first at 2B

those are not necessarily indicative…

by BurgherKing on Jul 17, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

Also, the sample size from last season is small as well. These two seasons combined will give me a little more comfort working with them, but being that last year’s data set isn’t necessarily indicative…

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Twitter: @shanecglass

by glass0941 on Jul 17, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

What is your ideal sample size?

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jul 18, 2011 7:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I think, for UZR, they say

3 years worth of data. Good site here with some quick explanations for those who don’t really understand UZR.

by Wizard of Woz on Jul 18, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Trouble is

that is too long of a sample for the human body. People’s skills can change a lot in 3 years. Defensive statistics just aren’t very accurate yet.

by Mr. E on Jul 18, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup.

Using a couple of them together is helpful sometimes, when they all agree, but that’s about it.

by Wizard of Woz on Jul 18, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

yes!!!! we have a winner!!!!

:-D

by white angus on Jul 18, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions

So summed up, Walker still has little range at 2b, but the balls he does get to he is sure handed with. I really dont have a problem with that seeing as how he was first a catcher then a 3b, neither position requires a lot of “range”…..

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Jul 18, 2011 8:53 AM EDT reply actions