Pirates Eyeing Hunter Pence... ???

Pirates wont deal Jameson or Pedro for Pence. Tabata could be possible if they are concerned with his health. If that is the case the front office must be confident in AP as leadoff cause we don’t have another one. I would like to keep Tabata personally, but Marte, Cain, and maybe AAA player…

see. Take a look at the fangraphs page for Hunter Pence.

A career walk rate of 6%. A strikeout rate that has increased to over 20% after seeing some improvement the past two years. An ISO that has DECLINED every year Pence has been at the major league level and now sits at a meh .168 (for a corner OF). That’s very worrisome to me since players should gain power as they get older and stronger but Pence is now 28 and has simply trended down.

Pence’s wOBA is a solid .376, which is a career best save for his rookie year where he played 2/3’s of the season. However, that wOBA is inflated by a career high .321 average (again save for his rookie campaign) which inflates his OBP to a .363. (I realize average and OBP don’t directly input to wOBA, but more hits and walks means a higher wOBA). Finally, his average is inflated by a .385 BABIP, .57 points higher than his career mark. His LD% is up 2.4% over his career number and 3.6% from last year’s number, but Pence should regress over the remainder of the season.

Pence is no doubt a good player, and is on pace for about 6 WAR. That’s even considering UZR has him as an about an average RF this year while he’s been decidedly above average for his career. Much of that has to do with his arm, which is fantastic (as showcased at the all-star game) and has earned a 14.5 component rating in UZR in total over the past 5 years.

Still, his batting trends concern me, although he would presumably leave Pittsburgh at the age of 30, meaning a big drop-off probably won’t have occured. Still, I see it as a gamble, and if it would take any 2 of Allie, Marte, and Tabata (no way the Pirates would move Taillon), then I’d pass. I’d be willing to swallow one of them, but I’d only really look to make the trade if it would be done with something like Alex Presley/Gorkys Hernandez, Brad Lincoln/Rudy Owens and Jordy Mercer and maybe include a WV arm, like Cain, ZVR, or Dodson.

Considering the article linked in the OP quoted the Astro’s GM as needing to be overwhelemed I doubt that would do it.

I’d just like to stress (although obviously I have no input in what actually happens) I’d be extremely diasspointed and angry if we move a package like “Todd Rainey” suggests in the comments. Marte, Allie, any AAA pitcher. That’s what it might take the Astros’s and I’m not interested.

What McCutchenIsTheTruth said….

maybe allie, and that’s a big maybe. and sure as hell wouldnt give up taillon, or any good major leaguer for him.

Seems NH is interested in Aram… Looks like the no trade clause is being used as leverage and cubs gm is still listening. More importantly if Pirates don’t make a deal. It feels great just hearing how NH is trying to impact this team!

they are in for a rude awakening.

We need to give up Alvarez/Taillon? Allie/Marte aren’t good enough prospects? Lol. Can’t wait to see Pence get moved (even if not to us) for a pile of half-eaten leftovers.

I honestly think they value Pence higher than we valued Bay.

I would really like to get Pence, but I am wary that a lot of his value is tied up in batting average. That doesn’t mean he isn’t an obvious upgrade, just hoping they don’t pay a star-player price for someone who is “merely” a good player.

For what the Pirates are going to have to give up to get him I don’t think its worth it. From what I have heard they Astros want a lot. There is no way they would ever get Taillon or Alvarez but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were asking for a package involving Allie and Marte among others.

The only outfielder I think I would consider trading a good amount for would be Matt Kemp. He would be a clear upgrade to a corner position and he is under contract for 2012. However, I think the odds of that happening are about as good as Chad Hermansen still developing into a good major league player

Standing my ground… Greatest player ever!

because Houston needs everything. There were/are probably 6 middling prospects in Indy that would be on Houston’s 25-man roster now (Lincoln, Harrison, Presely, Darnaud, Jaramillo, Gorkys, Hague, a reliever or two). Wade may want elite prospects, but Houston needs young talent—even if it is imperfect talent—everywhere.

and be thrilled as hell to have him. I think that would be an honest and even swap

record. I made a fanpost over at Crawfish Boxes. It just started, but the first two posters wanted Taillon as a best case scenario, but also mentioned Alvarez. Before we jump to conclusions and call them crazy and stupid, it just shows how far apart we are (considering our, including mine, suggestions where we don’t trade anyone above that Allie/Marte line).

What is realistic is probably much closer towards the middle.

Link here

Maybe it’s just me but I dont see an outfielder really helps us. Tabata’s almost suredly isn;t going anywhere, Cutch obviously isn’t going anywhere and taking Presley’s bat doesn’t seem like it’s leaving the lineup anytime soon. Unless he moves to 1B, I don’t see how Pence really helps. Maybe that’s just me but I honest to god don’t see it.

I’ve been advocating a trade for a while(More because just giving away guys in Rule 5 irks me to no end) but it should be a trade that really helps. Something like, I don’t know, a setup man….

So tough letting Marte go, but for Pence it’s a fair price. We already have our CF of the present and future. The only question is getting him locked up. If he doesn’t sign, there’s always a chance Tabata moves to CF, plus Gorkys floating in the system. CF is definitely a position of depth for our Buccos.

Lincoln’s a young, ML-ready prospect from Houston. He probably slides immediately into the rotation and performs as a #3-4 starter for a few years.

Pence could legit get us into the playoffs this year. If that happens, he’s easily worth the price. If not, he’s still a pretty good darn player for next year. Trading Lincoln complicates the Maholm situation a bit more, but that’s something the Pirates can’t worry about too much.

I’d even be willing to throw in a guy like Cunningham to get it done, but I think Lincoln/Marte is very fair for both sides.

 some times teams value their players more than they should and it makes it hard to trade prospects. Also fans of thier favorite team tend to do this also. look for the pirates to make sometime low money trade at the deadline.

It seems as if everyone wants to throw Lincoln into trade proposals but I am very hesitant to deal him. Right now he is the #1 option if a starter got hurt. Obviously the conversation changed when Ohlendorf comes back but who knows what to expect out of him. Lets fast forward to next year.

I think Lincoln is more valuable than most want to give him credit for and he is a huge secruity blanket right now and going forward to next season. If the Pirates traded Lincoln and one of the starters got hurt then the option would probably be Brian Burres with Justin Wilson as an outside shot.

My point is while I would trade Lincoln I would certainly consider him a HUGE part of a deal

Anyone wonder if we could package Karstens or Maholm for Pence? You have to think the Astros would overvalue Karstens after the performance he did. Would an outfield of pence make up for the fact you will prob be starting ohlie or lincoln?

I’d rather go after a pure rental and pay less, like Carlos Beltran. Considering the Mets are gonna try and resign the Reyes, they are gonna keep trying to contend in the future. They’d probably prefer higher floor and lower ceiling guys close to the majors. I’m wondering if something like Lincoln, Hernandez, and Grossman would get it done.

Rather do that, then have to move Allie or Marte, even for the extra two years of Pence.