Would you support...
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 4:06 PM EDT
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Printa trade of Stetson Allie and Tony Sanchez for Matt Kemp?
Just curious. Was following MLBTR Chat today and a poster suggested a trade of Matt Kemp for Taillon as a PTBNL. I'd so no way on that one but it got me wondering if a Kemp for two slightly lower ceiling prospects might be seen as beneficial for both teams. The problem with Kemp would obviously be service time so we'd probably ask for some lower level prospects back, no? Wouldn't Kemp still be arb eligible for a year or two after his contract ends this year as well? I'm sure he'd be type A if he didn't accept so there's that as well.
Again, just curious speculation on my part.
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I saw that too...lol
Who the hell would ok a Taillon for Kemp deal?
It doesn’t cost a thing to believe and the payoff on a winner is huge!
Well
no one in their right mind due to Kemp’s limited control but if you had six years of both I’d say it’d be within the realm of discussion. That’s what got me thinking about still taking a shot at Kemp with lower upside guys. A Tabata, McCutchen, Kemp outfield with Presley the 4th OF looks pretty nice.
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
years of control
If you’d have six years of both then Kemp would kind of be a no-brainer, no? He’s an established MLB superstar and Taillon still a gamble, albeit a pretty high percentage gamble.
If control was equal, I have no issue with the trade.
It doesn’t cost a thing to believe and the payoff on a winner is huge!
Kemp is an awesome player
That being said, I don’t trade Sanchez at this point. Good catchers are a hugely valuable commodity, and if the Bucs want to really be competitive for the foreseeable future I think Tony’s going to be a big part of that.
I’d be fine with trading Allie at this point — I love the guy’s ceiling but he’s decidedly less interesting than Taillon, Cole, and Cain at least. Obviously Allie alone isn’t going to get it done though, and I’m not sure what else we have that LA would want.
Of course, the big question mark is how the Dodgers finances are going to play into all of this. If we can wrangle a good deal using financial desperation, go for it. I’d say Allie+(any position player not besides Sanchez or Marte)+maybe a Z. Dodson type?
trading doesn't imply "giving up"
It just implies that you value something else more highly.
Right now Kemp is one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, period. The odds that Allie or Sanchez ever approach that are pretty bad.
Now that we have a strong farm system, we have to accept that we’re going to trade away some guys who might go on to have nice careers.
but should we 'spend' Sanchez and Allie on any outfielder?
is OF our biggest need, especially since we’re trading away our possible catcher of the future in the deal?
likewise, the ‘opportunity cost’ associated with trading Allie right now is too high IMO.
I agree that I wouldn't deal Sanchez
As posted above.
And OF might not be our biggest need, but power and betting overall hitting sure is. So if Allie+(almost anyone else) can get it done, you’ve got to pull the trigger. Kemp is an elite hitter and would hugely bolster the offense.
Anyway, that’s all debatable. My main point in replaying to you was just to say that trading prospects doesn’t imply “giving up.” It’s just trading potential production for actual production.
Well
you might think that since OF is our least area of need…if we get that legitimate OF at the ML level we could trade off some of that OF and Pitching depth to get a Catcher?
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, I'd do it
Kemp has one more year of team control in 2012, so use him this year to make a run. You can always trade him for prospects next year if we’re out of it.
I don’t think the Dodgers would do that deal, though.
in terms of value
in a heartbeat…
However, I m not sure if the Pirates should be making this kind of a trade just yet…
Yeah
I’m with you. Hypothetically, if everything goes right between now and the deadline (i.e., Pedro comes back and starts destroying everything, Doumit and Tabata come back and stay healthy, Hague gets promoted and looks like Overbay used to, the pitchers don’t melt down like they’re supposed to) I’d think pretty seriously about it.
I like Allie a lot and I think he’s a great fit for our player development system, so I wouldn’t trade him unless we had a real shot at the playoffs. There are too many questions with this team that need to work out in our favor for us to seriously contend, even with the 2 best OF’s in the league.
charity standing orders
Would.... Stetson Allie, Alex Presley, and Starling Marte
Be too much or Just Enough for Kemp
Marte's
too much for me. Allie, Presley, and Locke or Morris?
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I'd do that
I’d try to hold on to Presley (Allie, Gorkys, Locke?) but if they want Presley I’d still do the deal.
I was thinking Tabata, Allie, Moreno. I don’t think Sanchez + Allie would be enough. Kemp is way better than Bay but it reminds me some of the Bay package we received. Clearly Tabata has been better than Andy at the same time and Allie isn’t coming off a year ending injury, but similar pedigree to Morris. Moreno is equivalent to any other piece of middling value.
can we please stop with all the ridiculous trades?
the team is finally a contender and people want to go out and trade for a jose reyes, hunter pence, matt kemp type of player. the pirates are not giving up any top prospects, at all, in any trade this season. if the pirates are buyers this year it is not going to be for a superstar type player, it will be for an average player that would be a slight upgrade by the pirates, by giving up average prospects that we have the risk of losing in the Rule 5 draft or scrap peices that have some value but have no value for the pirates and are expendable. and is stetson allie even tradeable yet or not, im not really sure how that works. i know you cant trade prospects for a certain amount of time after theyre drafted, i just dont know how long
That's like your opinion man.
We can not please stop will all the (reasonable) trade speculation. It’s part of being a fan…especially a fan of a perennial rebuilder like the Buccos. I suggest you take a look in the mirror, get control of that sourpuss, and lighten up a little. The only “top” prospect we’re even discussing here is Allie (who likely profiles a backend reliever) and a few guys mentioned Marte (who I’d leave out of it).
As far as your comment about trading prospects after a certain amount of time post-draft…we already covered that by mentioning PTBNL status for Allie.
If you don’t like posts like this, don’t read them.
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
this is not a ridiculous trade
1. The trade proposed involves a struggling team with money issues to an on-the-bubble team with a fairly stocked farm system. Those sort of trades happen all the time.
2. Why purpose should this board serve if not to provide a place for discussion of all facets of our team? Personally I’m a work right now, shuffling through a tedious afternoon, and this was an interesting question to weigh in on. Yeah, the “let’s trade Overbay and Gorkys for Jose Reyes” stuff gets old, but this is a legitimate idea and actually interesting to think about.
No
I know you get the BPA, but as you get closer and closer to the ML you need to start filling holes. OF is the least of our worries with Cutch, Tabata, Presley, Gorkys, Marte, and to a lesser extent Lambo, Grossman, Grovatt, and Mel Rojas. Jr.
No thanks on Kemp.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2011 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
fair argument...
so you’d go after a SS? who do you think is available or blocked?
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh
We don’t need Kemp, who is tied with McCutchen for most WAR in the league, because we have…Alex Presley?
Seriously?
Yes
seriously. Why trade two very good prospects (Sanchez’s struggles notwithstanding) for a year and a half of Matt Kemp at our deepest and best position. If you wanna trade those two guys do it for Hanley Ramirez.
Plus, there’s no way that’d be enough for Kemp, not as hot as he is; It’d take something like Allie, Cain, Sanchez, and Presley or Allie, Cunningham, Tabata. Again, I’ll pass.
If he was controlled through 2014, sure, but a year and half. The only decent argument I’ve seen is the one you (Maguro) have above about us being able to flip him for prospects later ala Matt Holliday. Ask how that turned out for the A’s though.
To refresh on that trade…per Wikipedia
On November 12, 2008, Holliday was traded to the Oakland Athletics for pitchers Huston Street and Greg Smith, and outfielder Carlos González.
On July 24, 2009, Holliday was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for prospects Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson.39
So the A’s traded Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith, and Houston Street for Michael Taylor (swapped for Brett Wallace), Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson. The same would likely happen to us because I can’t see Kemp’s value getting any higher.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand
The Mariners got more for a half year of Cliff Lee than they gave up to get a whole year of Cliff Lee. These sorts of trades are unpredictable, you never are exactly sure which prospects are going to work out.
Exactly
so that’s why I’ll say no thank you. I like where we are going. If we sign Cole, Bell and Dickerson, and a few more of those prep arms and another interesting prep bat; say Holmes, Platts, and Watts for the arms and Dunatov and Brown for the bats I’ll absolutely love our system. It’ll have arms a plenty, top to bottom, impact and depth, and enough bats to produce a pipeline for years to come.
I think standing pat or making minor moves is the way to go.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2011 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
OF
I thought.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
OF is the least of our worries
Maybe so, but power is among our biggest worries. Imagine how nice Kemp’s 22 homers would look if he was batting behind Cutch. Those two would instantly become one of the best 3-4 duos in the league.
I'd go so far to say that
Cutch’s numbers would look quite a bit better with Kemp batting behind him and Walker batting behind him.
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
A run, is a run, is a run, is a run
no matter if its made through a HR, a walk, or in the field defensively. You can build a team without power and do just fine imo, and I need to see some hard data to change my mind.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A run, is a run, is a run, is a run no matter if its made through a HR, a walk, or in the field
Sure, this is true. But a walk is not as valuable as a home run. Obviously a guy who can hit for power and average is a more dangerous player than a guy who only hits for average.
Right?
If you object to me saying that “power” is a concern, then just call it “run scoring.” We are 11th in the NL in runs scored and 13th in hits. Also 11th in OBP and 14th in slugging. Matt Kemp is much better at producing runs than anyone on our team besides Cutch.
I'm back home in the country
and I just found out the neighboring town opened a BYOB strip club! I’ve been lobbying buddies to get over there for days but no one has bought in yet.
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
What's the hold up?
Jeebus…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 6, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
would it happen to be the Blue Parrot in Morgantown?
$10 privates on Wednesdays. $5 admission b4 9pm.
by BadAndy on Jul 6, 2011 5:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ha no.
I’m from downstate IL … the place is called … wait for it …. Fluffers.
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
GTFO.
No way.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jul 7, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
If you're going to give up good prospects
for someone, why not for Hardy? Even with Cedeno being better of late and d’Arnaud/Wood also options at SS, Hardy would give you that and much more. Good defense and his bat in this lineup would be outstanding. If he could be extended for a couple of years, that would definitely address a “position of need” for the Bucs. I wouldn’t include Allie in this scenario, but for 2 of Locke/Morris/Owens/Wilson/Gorkys, in a heartbeat.
You
read my mind!
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/7/6/2263133/more-trade-fun
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 6, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Another interesting option.
Still, your suggestion has me wondering what it’d take to get both Hardy and Kemp.
Check this out:
Tabata LF
Walker 2B
McCutchen CF
Kemp RF
Alvarez 3B
Jones/Pearce 1B
Hardy SS
Doumit/McHenry
P
I don’t even know where to put guys in that lineup. That team contends, imo. Deep in to the playoffs.
What would it take for both guys? We’d have to walk away with Taillon, Cain, and one of Marte or Sanchez imo. Most other guys would have to be on the block. I’m not saying it’d be worth it since Kemp and Hardy wouldn’t be under control for long. Just talking out loud.
by RetireNutting on Jul 6, 2011 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d take Kemp for Allie & Sanchez, but really doubt the Dodgers would. Could you imagine the backlash from their fans ?
"Pitch me outside, I will hit .400. Pitch me inside, and you will not find the ball." - Roberto Clemente
by michaelbro8 on Jul 6, 2011 6:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
instead of two prospects, how about GJones & TSanchez for Kemp
Kemp would replace Garrett in our lineup, and vice versa. Three of the last four of Eric Fryer’s seasons are better than all of Tony Sanchez’s.
by Brian Cartwright on Jul 6, 2011 7:42 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think the Dodgers would go for it
but yeah, I’d make that trade with a quickness. Interesting proposal though.
Kemp instantly loses value on the Pirates
Much of his value is that his superior offensive production comes from a position bereft of offensive talent traditionally. Guess who happens to occupy that spot currently?
Also….I’d do Allie and Sanchez for Kemp in an instant. You’re talking about trading your number 4 and 5 prospects for a guy who might be the best player in the world right now, and you’d get him for next year as well. Let’s not be crazy here. Dodgers wouldn’t do it though….they’d get sooo much more on the trade market.
Come to think of it, if the Pirates sign Cole and Bell, Allie/Sanchez are closer to the bottom of the top 10 than the top. Cole/Bell/Taillon/Marte are above them for sure, and Heredia/Cain aren’t far behind.
Kemp's
bad in CF, but his offensive production is superior no matter where he plays. He can pass at RF defensively and his absurd .441 wOBA could play well at DH. That’s the second highest wOBA this year behind Jose Bautista. Offensively he’s a monster.
It has nothing to do with how good he is, it’s the fact that this is a 3 months rental. In 2014, we should make this trade, but not in 2011.
Also, just for fun, again assuming Cole and Bell sign my top 12 looks like this I’d say.
1. Cole
2. Taillon
Gap
3. Marte
4. Bell
5. Sanchez
6. Heredia
7. Allie
Gap
8. Morris
9. Cunningham
10. Curry
11. Dickerson
Gap
12. Cain
I still believe in Tony. Amazing to see how far guys like Rudy Owens and Jeff Locke have fallen off.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2011 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Morris
Get him off of that list. Dude has done nothing except be good out of the bullpen here and there.
Morris
was a top 5 prospect almost universally (except for John Sickels, who I respect and respectfully disagree with). He’s been injured, but has pitched well, even if it’s out of the pen.
Also, Kyle Stark has been quoted saying they plan on moving him back into the rotation eventually. Morris deserves to be on that list.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't know that about Stark
But I heard the interview that the Curve’s pitching coach gave, and he sounded extremely skeptical of Morris returning to the rotation in the future. Obviously he doesn’t make the decisions, but he does have the most knowledge of Morris’s makeup and current stuff.
Right.
I thought he had one more year of arb after his contract. Changes everything in the commentary here, no?
by RetireNutting on Jul 7, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
that’s a huge change, but I still don’t think we will truly be ready next year. Why mortage the farm for a mere playoff spot.
I honestly think the Pirates are building a dynasty. I’ve gotten much more knowledgeable of the Pirates farm system and other farm systems around the league over the past year. The Pirates system is absurdly deep, but has lacked impact talent at the top. If they can sign Bell, along with Cole and Dickerson, with the way Taillon, Heredia, and Allie are pitching, and guys like Marte, Curry, and Cunningham are hitting, our system could serve as a foundation to contend for years (I’m talking 5-6+ years) if we don’t jump the gun.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
The Pirates system is absurdly deep, but has lacked impact talent at the top.
And the depth is critically important, as we are seeing this year. Injuries like we’ve had this year, and the Bucs would have been 10 games under .5 at this point. Similarly, having depth with good but not great players gives you the chance that someone will suddenly figure something out and become a big time player. If not, it’s good (bench) depth to have.
I disagree that they are building a dynasty, esp given how far away all the impact talent is. As many have said, if 2 of Taillon, Allie, Heredia come close to their potential, the Bucs will have hit big.
It's crazy to think
at the start of the year I and many others didn’t expect a flood of rookies like we had in 2010. Lincoln/Owens and probably a reliever or two. The AAA squad has saved our butts this year.
Again, happy to be here
Reading “The Pirates should trade this prospect for that MLB player to make a run right now” is WAY better than the usual “The Pirates should trade this current MLB player for that prospect” stuff that I see around this time.
Oh, and no MiLB player should be considered “untouchable”… TINSTAAP.
I don't
trade Taillon for basically anyone. Exceptions would include Longoria and Tulo.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 7, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Kemp isn't near Longoria or Tulo in value?
Sorry guys, I just posted over at the “Acquire a Bat” thread and wanted to bring this up here. Apologies for starting a firestorm over Taillon for Kemp, and like I said there, I don’t want to get rid of Taillon, but when we’re talking value and if there’s any one you’d trade your top guy for, it’s a player like Kemp. He’s one of the top 10 players in the game right now (better than Bautista because of the speed aspect) and does have another year of control. Teams send top prospects, often more than that, for a player of Kemp’s caliber. Just my thoughts. I do believe we need to aim lower, because I don’t want to mortgage anything either.
by BuccoNation15 on Jul 7, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
No
because Longoria and Tulo are signed for the long term, and Longoria’s contract is so ridiculously team friendly it’s disgusting.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 8, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
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