Giants 6, Pirates 0: Bucs' Offense Sputters Against Madison Bumgarner
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2011 1:08 AM EDT
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This wasn't James McDonald's best outing, as he allowed homers to Chris Stewart and Aubrey Huff and allowed three walks in six innings. Still, though, James McDonald wasn't the issue here. He still notched a quality start, as Jason Grilli and Joe Beimel combined to allow three runs in the eighth.
And, more to the point, the Pirates just can't hit right now. They didn't score, but it isn't just that; they're just getting pwned night after night. Tonight, Madison Bumgarner struck out 10 batters and walked one. And yes, Bumgarner is good and all, but the Bucs struck out 13 times and walked twice against Ryan Vogelsong and company on Monday. On Sunday it was eight strikeouts and one walk against Mat Latos and the Padres. On Saturday it was 11 strikeouts and no walks against Cory Luebke and a couple relievers. There's a break in the pattern there, as the Pirates walked nine times on Friday, but still ... the Bucs' offense isn't just getting beat. It's getting killed.
It's true, obviously, that it's possible for hitters to be productive in the majors while striking out a lot, but when coupled with the lack of walks, it's pretty clear what's going on. The Bucs' hitters just look completely clueless. And this is days after it added two bats at the trading deadline. There's not much to do at this point except wait it out and hope for Alex Presley and Jose Tabata back. But right now, this is ugly.
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Help an old fogie out here.
What the f*** is “pwned”? Is that some common Internet-idiot misspelling of “owned,” as in “Bumgarner owned us tonight”? Cause every time I see it I think, “Pawned? Like in a chess match? What does that have to do with baseball?”
It’s just a trendy misspelling of “owned,” basically.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 10, 2011 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 10, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll bet it just started when some widely-read blogger hit the "p" key when he meant to type an "o"
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 10, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
it did, but it wasnt a single occurance that sparked it.
people who type fast in games and misspell stuff all the time always used to screw it up. now its like a trendy thing….like CF2 got pwned by his triple rums drinks and now his rum is gone.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 10, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I figured it was something like that.
I noticed P next to O and guessed. Also, I’m just kind of pointlessly interested in how catch phrases get started and why.
offense looks bad, obiviously
cutch really needs out of the leadoff spot. he just looks wrong there.
does ludwick or jones sit when presley is back. i can not wait to get alex back and see if he can keep it up. but with the way jones has hit this month i cannot see him getting taken out of the lineup if he continues to hit. furthermore he should be left in the 2nd spot in the lineup, IF he continues to hit. if it aint broke dont fix it.
My guess...
Tabata meets the team in Milwaukee with Pearce or Windows departing. The other departs in a week or so when Presley returns. Although you could put Diaz in the departing group and not miss anything.
Just about guaranteed to be XP. They’d be short on infielders otherwise. Plus, XP doesn’t have any skills that the team needs if it has Tabata and Presley, so he’s headed out anyway. He really can’t hit.
Logically, Diaz should be the other departure, but I doubt they’ll release him with a 2-yr deal. My guess is that Presley will stay in the minors until rosters expand. I’d like to see them release Diaz, bring up Hague in Sept., and give him a decent look. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Diaz also doesn’t have any skills that the team needs. Paul at least brings speed to the table. it doesn’t hut to have too much. Diaz is worthless. He needs DFAed, 2 year deal be damned.
Not that I’d mind releasing Diaz, but at least he’s shown repeatedly in the past that he could hit, although that ability seems to have suddenly disappeared. Paul has shown consistently that he can’t. I don’t see any use for either of them. Speed without any hitting ability is a luxury that a team with a deadball era offense can’t afford. The Red Sox can afford to keep a pinch runner on the roster. The Pirates can’t.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Diaz
What has happened to him mystifies me. He was great gap to gap with the Braves and had occasional home run power. Since his infected hand knocked him out for most of last season, he bears no resemblance at all to the hitter I saw regularly from 2006-2009. One expects a decline with age, but he literally fell off the cliff after a splinter infected his hand early last year. Even with that, he was hitting the ball hard within a week if returning toward the end of the season. Since he arrived in Pittsburgh, he has looked absolutely nothing like the player I had watched for four or five years.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
by RichieHebner on Aug 10, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Strange as it is
this seems to happen to vets we bring in ALL THE FREAKIN TIME (for the last few years at least). Hopefully Lee and Ludwick can reverse that trend.
(Hinske, Monroe, Crosby, Iwamura, Church, Overbay, Diaz, V Vazquez – who else am I missing?)
by BlindSquirrel on Aug 10, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramon Vazquez
I meant Ramon, not Virgil (who wasn’t much of a vet – or much of anything)
by BlindSquirrel on Aug 11, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
presley has already started his rehab.
would they really leave him in the minors for another 3 weeks?
He can be optioned.
I wouldn’t assume he’s going to give the team a big spark. He’s not going to be healthy until next year.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
wouldnt he be "healthier" than Tabata? Presley is back to hitting while Tabata is occasionally DHing.
do we option presley or tabata?
by white angus on Aug 10, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
They said the hand thing won't be completely healed til next year...
he has changed his grip on the bat so he can swing without pain. In addition to getting his legs back he is trying to get use to his new grip on rehab. I think WTM’s concern is that Presley with the new grip will not equal Presley with the old grip. Likely a valid concern.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
They'd have to...
activate and option Presley to send him down. Granted, that’s not an issue since his option was burned in March. However, it sends a poor message to the team that there is no room for a guy that was hitting .350 in the majors.
A guy who was hitting .350
and has stated that he will not be better until the off season. A guy who stated that he has to alter his grip on the bat to swing without pain. The normal swinging Presley, yes, but the modified swing guy, who knows? I’m ok with giving him some more ABs in AAA to work out if this new grip is going to be productive or not.
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 10, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
If he won't be better until the off-season...
they should just shut him down.
Don't Shortsell XP
Right now, he is Cutch’s backup and Tabata may not be ready to man CF yet. XP can manufacture a run with his speed, like he did in the 10th inning win vs. S.L. (infield hit + SB + advance on error + score on SF). Diaz has none of those skills and can’t provide prevent defense like XP can. Yes, Presley has the same skills and was superior before his injury, but if he isn’t rehabbed until late August, might as well keep XP around for September. Tabata’s return will cause a logjam of 4 RH outfielders; I don’t see how they can justify keeping Diaz. If you have a junk vehicle with a paid 2-year registration, you don’t hang on to it and absorb the other costs to “get your money’s worth.” Diaz is sunk cost.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Aug 10, 2011 4:30 AM EDT reply actions
XP can't steal first base, and his OBP is 303 with a 642 OPS
That’s bad for an outfielder even providing speed and defense.
Also he has 12 SB and 6 CS, for a 67% success rate.
IIRC, runners start costing runs to their team when their success rate is below 75% (somebody with a better brain can correct me here).
So yeah, if Presley is ready soon, XP is gone. He didn’t cost us anything when we acquired him (depending of the value you put on outrighting Bowker to AAA). So letting him go isn’t the worst thing in the world, especially if we replace him with a better/younger version of himself.
"a better/younger version of himself"
Would that be Vista?
ba-dum cha!
Thank you, I’ll be here all week.
They've looked again at that number
And it appears that the success rate doesn’t need to be quite that high (sorry no link, read it somewhere recently – HBT?), but 67% is marginal at best.
If I had to guess, the original calculation that got 75% (or so) didn’t really take into account situational stealing – just like IBBs, or sac bunts by your pitcher, apparently undesirable outcomes may be less important than they seem because the manager (or a smart player) picks his spots. But I’m just guessing.
I might be wrong on this but
I know 25 years ago or so the breakeven point was supposed to be about 67%. Then, as HRs became more and more prevelant during the 1990s the % increased into the 70s. I haven’t read anything on that topic for awhile, but with HRs declining again it makes sense it makes sense that the % would decline to where it was.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 10, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Team K%
Our team strikeout rate is at 24%, as of today. If you count only our hitters (meaning pitchers excluded), our team strikeout rate is at 22%. Anyway you put it, that’s awfully high.
Just for the sake of comparison, hitters against us have a 18% K-rate, pitchers included.
We are 3rd worst in the MLB in K-rate (beind SD and WSH). NL average is 21%.
I didn't think either of the hits against him were very hard hit
Sandoval hit a little bouncer over the mound that got through. Then Huff’s ball was just a GB through the hole – may have been an out if the infield hadn’t been at DP depth.
BTW, did anyone understand Hurdle’s logic in letting Grilli face Huff and waiting to bring in Beimel to face Schierholtz then leaving Beimel in to face Ross and Cabrera who are both RHB before finally replacing him with D Cutch?
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 10, 2011 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Russell must have left one of his caps behind in the manager’s office and Hurdle mistakenly put it on.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
It's plain to me that Beimel
has compromising photos of Hurdle.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 10, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Has all the fare-weather blown over?
Is it safe to come back and not have to hear the general nonsense?
Question--
I have seen some people advocating that Cutch shouldn’t be in the lead off spot? I thought that is what the Pirates originally envisioned for him? Shouldn’t the lead off spot be good for him?
His hitting
is better suited to the 3-spot.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 10, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I prefer him batting leadoff. More at bats for your best hitter.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 10, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
You only lead off the game
once.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 10, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
But each slot you move down
is something like 30 fewer PAs per season.
That said, the issue seems to be simply that Cutch has hit better in other slots. This year his OPS is 120 points better at 3 than at 1, in the same number of games (at #4 he’s been 30 points better). Some of that is BABIP-driven (although I’d imagine BABIP for batters with runners on is uniformly higher than with bases empty), but it may simply be where Andrew prefers to hit.
What’s status on Presley and Tabata coming back? Saw their stints from the minors on TV before I fell asleep.
given the fact that we are
near the bottom (or the top depending on how you look at it) in strikeouts, i thinks its about time to sale the hitting coach, regardless of pr issues that could arise. Seriously this team hitting has been atrocious all season. and the youngins that need to improve aren’t. the guys in certain ab’s look completely lost. the fact that we have to platoon a guy who is our first real power prospect because he cant hit lefties is another sign that this dude aint getting it done.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 10, 2011 9:20 AM EDT reply actions
it's astonishing to me that we aren't miles ahead (or behind) the rest of the league in Ks
Washington and SD have more, although i bet we pass them by season’s end, or week’s end at this rate
New convention
For the sake of accuracy, I think we should start referring to the Pirates’ “offense.”
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
I’m not sure I understand.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Aug 10, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
As in
Even though they didn’t score any runs last night, the Pirate “offense” was pretty good (for them). Ronny Cedeno, one of their “hitters” whom we’ve all been complaining about even had a double.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 10, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a newbie's question, for sure,
But can someone explain to me the general understanding about teams that K a lot, but specifically why generally a path of success for those offenses is that their walk rate is above average or considerably above average? Is there a reason for why walks are generally more likely to help the offense as opposed to the balls that are actually put in play, are put in great spots? If they strike out 60% of the time, when they don’t K they’re actually getting on base (but not necessarily walking there?)
I’ll most likely think about it for a minute and then realize something I’m missing, but please chime in if you can.
i dont understand the question
If they strike out 60% of the time, when they don’t K they’re actually getting on base
When they dont K, they put it in play, and a lot of those will be outs.
by BurgherKing on Aug 10, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
So I guess the question is
Charlie hinted to the fact that most teams that K as much as the Bucs do, generally their saving grace is that their walk rate is better than the average, which helps mask the negative effect all of those K’s have on the offense.
My specific question, is is there any reason why walks specifically are the saving grace for said offenses, and not well-placed balls in play?
Because for most ML players
BABIP is consistent, and around 300, give or take. If a team is not putting the ball in paly as much, they will most likely not have nearly as many hits. As for walks, you get on base every time with a walk, so your OBP goes up without having an unsustainable BABIP. Walks avoid outs, always. Ks make outs, always, and balls in play result in outs ~70% of the time. If you can get your walks up, it tends to negate the high K rate. Does that help?
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 10, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, BABIP is variable based on the player. A high line drive rate will up your BABIP, as will minimizing popups. A plus runner that hits a lot of ground balls will have a higher BABIP, especially if left handed. On the reverse side, a low line drive rate, or someone who hits a lot of popups (Dan Uggla pre hitting streak) will have a lower BABIP.
.300 is a decent baseline to use, but it can cause you to underrate someone like Tabata, who should maintain a high BABIP, or overrate someone who is just not hitting the ball well.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 10, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
but we are looking at team stats, not player stats. For a team, the BABIP is fairly consistent. I realize the variables for the players, you don’t generally see a team upping its LD% in a concerted way.
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 10, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Precisely.
On the surface it makes sense that high-K teams need to walk, but I wasn’t able to come up with a definitive reason why. This is precisely why – thanks!
you negate the fact that you get on base 0% of the tim with a K
with the fact that you get on 100% of the time with a walk. So if you walk as much as u k, that gets you on 50% of the time. Then throw the 30% of the time you get on when you put it in play and you’re getting on base a good percentage of the time.
Not 0%....
but close. You can strikeout and get on base with a wild pitch or passed ball.
Pirates...
rank 25th of 30 MLB teams in on base percentage. With no power to speak of, that doesn’t signify a successful offense. Thus the 26th of 30 ranking in OPS and runs per game.
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