Kevin Correia Bombed Against Cubs
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 2, 2011 10:00 PM EDT
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PrintIt's the eighth inning as I write this, but I have to be somewhere at 10:00, and I've seen just about enough. If this doesn't turn out to be the low point in the Pirates' season, I'm not sure I want to go any further. The Cubs are a bad team, and they basically took batting practice off the Pirates for the first four innings today, smacking a remarkable six home runs, many of them no-doubters, like the Tyler Colvin shot that nearly landed in the river on the fly. It should be noted that Garrett Jones had two homers, and Brandon Wood added a two-run blast in the bottom of the eighth, but that's about all this game has had to recommend it so far.
The wheels of the Kevin Correia train appear to have completely fallen off, and that he represented the Pirates at the All-Star Game just a couple weeks ago feels like a bad joke. At this point, the Pirates need to be considering the possibility of moving him out of the rotation - I'm not sure they should actually do it yet, but it has to at least be in the back of their minds. His June wasn't good, his July was really bad, and his August is off to a terrible start. He had modest success as a reliever with the Giants a few years back; maybe that's something worth considering.
It's funny that 2011 has been the Pirates' most successful season in a decade, and yet their 2010-11 offseason has turned out to be so bad. The four guys they signed to major-league deals were Lyle Overbay, Matt Diaz, Kevin Correia and Scott Olsen. Three of those have turned out to be wastes of money, and that leaves Correia. The best you can say about Correia at this point is that he's been a reasonable fifth starter - before tonight's debacle, he had an 88 ERA+. The Pirates do deserve credit for Jose Veras, who was technically a minor-league signing, but still.
If anything exciting happens, I'll update this later. If not, hey, it's 11-5.
... Oh, hey, great, now Joel Hanrahan is pitching in an 11-5 game after sitting out every, or nearly every, relevant game the Pirates have played recently.
... Pirates lose, 11-6.
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.. Oh, hey, great, now Joel Hanrahan is pitching in an 11-5 game after sitting out every, or nearly every, relevant game the Pirates have played recently.
i feel your anger…it makes you stronger….
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:04 PM EDT reply actions
Two things:
1. That Correia was an All-Star proves that baseball people understand quite little about their game. Pretty alarming.
2. Having Hanrahan come in now (and I heard that the closer’s video played for his entrance)…well, I just hope someone says something in the clubhouse about that tonight.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
1. That Correia was an All-Star proves that baseball people understand quite little about their game. Pretty alarming.
it just shows that they put far to much stock in wins and losses.
and i agree 100% on point two. someone inside that clubhouse needs to say a few things, not just about hammers entrance music. quiet honestly it looks like the rotation has up and quit on them, particularly kc and morton
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
dude really?
we are talking about a group (mlb in general) who votes players into the hall based on avg, era, and wins and losses
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
It's worse than that.
Baseball writers vote on the Hall.
HOF criteria
Other important criteria: how nice the player was to the media, the size and passion of their internet following, whether the player looks like they did steroids even if they have never been accused or named anywhere, and, of course, whether the player was a Yankee.
Tito Fuentes is being snubbed by the HOF!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, let’s not put the struggles of the rotation on ‘people up and quitting on them’. Correia is actually a bad pitcher and Morton’s always been a victim of his own luck.
Number two was in reference to Hanrahan finally getting used when he had plenty of chances to get used in situations where he was actually needed. Hurdle is getting out of hand the last week and a half.
Thank you Ned Colletti.
what i saw tonight form the starter
was a guy who had no movement,velocity,or control on his pitches. either he’s dead tired and his arm is about to fall off or he’s thrown up the white flag
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
if the issue is number one
they need to make the call to indy tonight. stick corria in the pen until kc can work out his issues.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Or put Correia on the DL because of a dead arm (or they could find a fake injury like it tends to happen when a veteran player tanks badly, which may be the case recently for Zito in SF and Davies in KC).
Then, call Lincoln up for 3 starts and let’s see what happens.
well, the difference here is that Davies has never been a good pitcher...
dead arm is completely different from no arm.
Davies may very well be the single worst pitcher still starting in the Majors. And that means close to Van Benschoten bad.
Zito and Davies were just the last 2 examples I could find for DL trips unofficially (but likely) du to suckiness.
If the CBA allows it, it could be fun to have a GM asking for a independent medical exam of said injury. And if they found out it’s fake, the player has to be reactivated. But I don’t think anybody would ask for it because it’s almost impossible to prove than somebody doesn’t feel pain/discomfort, and I imagine there’s a gentleman agreement stat you do not question another GM’s DL assignments.
Now, Correia may be in a dead arm period, and he could be put on the DL to get some rest. Or he’s just being bad lately, and the Pirates may be better served by finding a “fake” injury and put him on the DL.
at least Zito has had success
Davies, not so much. Correia was hitting 92 last night on the gun, but he had little movement when he needed it. he was also overthrowing on occasion.
he can still even out in his next start. no one was expecting him to be an ace for us, and he doesnt have to be.
You guys may recall that over the offseason, I was very concerned about Correia lasting a full year in the rotation.
His early success this year made me think I blew that call, but now I’m reconsidering…
by Vlad on Aug 3, 2011 8:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
(Of course, Duke has been pretty marginal in Arizona, so even if Correia tanks, we wouldn’t have been any better off doing what ai’d wanted.)
by Vlad on Aug 3, 2011 8:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
marginal?
demoted to the pen is marginal? other than his 2 HR’s, Duke is pretty much Duke.
and yes, you were very concerned with Correia’s workload. i remember that vividly.
but i do agree on hammer usage.
and im sure local sports talk will be all over this but why in the hell you bring in your closer down by 6 when you had TWO games in Atlanta and TWO in philly where he could have been used is beyond me
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Let’s hope there’s a chance for a 4-out save tomorrow.
by StripesForLife on Aug 2, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
1. That Correia was an All-Star proves that baseball people understand quite little about their game. Pretty alarming.
I think that’s been proven many times by now. And not just in baseball.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 3, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Sh.... Crap happens
Still 2 months of baseball. Come on Brad Lincoln. Look at the positives. Pirates now have an offense!
by Joey Mooney on Aug 2, 2011 10:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
nh said the other day that he was looking at brining him up soon
perhaps soon means hes on the plane with doumit
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Ohlie was suppose to have another rehab start and then be ready to go. You have to wonder if they scrap that and bring him up.
by StripesForLife on Aug 2, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Doumit’s coming back tomorrow(I swear I just read that somewhere less than an hour ago, but for the life of me I can’t find it again).
Here it is. I thought I read it too. I don’t know if that’s credible.
by StripesForLife on Aug 2, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Works for me
You just have to wonder if he’s going to be an upgrade over McKenry? Langosh tweeted 11 out of 11 runners have stolen on him before he threw out 2 of 2 tonight. You know MLB teams will be running on him every chance they get.
by StripesForLife on Aug 2, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
cant blame the catcher for every stolen base
the castro steal last night was completely on correia. castro was past halfway to 2nd by the time McKenry caught the ball
I agree
Some of the fault lies with the pitcher. But everybody knows Doumit can’t throw runners out. I would have to say that not all of the 11 steals were the pitchers fault.
by StripesForLife on Aug 3, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is this "everybody" you speak of?
Doumit is not optimum, but he sure ain’t chopped liver.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there an arguement that all of McKenry, Fryer, and Brown are better defensively? My point is just those guys are much better defensively, but hopefully Doumit can provide a little bit of an offensive punch and negate his defensive shortcomings.
"It's a great day for hockey" - Badger Bob
by StripesForLife on Aug 3, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Dusty Brown?
Better than Doumit?
That pretty much negates everything you say after that.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 4, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Doumit has been activated...
but I’ll be darned if I can figure out what move got him on the roster. I thought the 40 man was full after Lee and Ludwick were added.
I stand corrected...
there was an opening…Overbay getting DFA’d.
According to Tim, there was an open spot.
I was flat on my back with the flu yesterday, and kind of lost the plot a bit, so I’m not really sure.
I jut hope this isn't th bginning of..
Alot of offense and alot of suckage on the mound..
I still hesitate to say the Pirates are producing runs.
They scored 2 in the second inning off the HR. By the 8th inning the Cubs pitchers were just trying to get the ball over the plate.
by StripesForLife on Aug 2, 2011 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
"The wheels of the Kevin Correia trade..."
He was acquired via free agency, not a trade.
Im guessing he meant train
That was horrible. I haven’t turned off or walked away from a game all season but I did just that and went grocery shopping after the 5th HR. I got back just in time to see Brandon Wood’s HR (he has a .769 OPS since May 31 FWIW) The only positive that I can think of right now is that this game reminded me a lot of the first Baltimore game. The Pirates had just come off of a horrible sweep on the road and came home to a team that they were better than. They gave up 7 quick runs against the O’s in that first game and they were out of it before you could blink. With tough series coming up against the Sox and on the road vs Toronto, it seemed like they were about to be done. They were able to turn it around, though, and I’m hoping it will happen again. The offense seems better and I don’t think the pitching could possibly be this bad. Maybe Lincoln or Ohlendorf replaces Correia. I don’t know. All I know is that if the Pirates play over .500 for the next 54 games, then I will still be pretty happy to be a Pirates fan.
Night all…
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 2, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Why couldn´t we have made our trades before the Cinci series
seems as though the return would have been the same and we could have built some momentum
price
or are you just opining?
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
er lamenting
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 2, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
A bit harsh to call Diaz a "waste of money"
It seems that Diaz (despite a slow start) has done what he was brought here to do (actually more). He was basically brought in to start against the handful of lefties the Pirates see and be a guy off of the bench. I don’t think the Pirates envisioned him being a starter for any length of time, but he’s been pretty solid when he’s had to start a stretch of games. Granted no power, but I don’t think that too much would have been expected on that front.
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 10:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
But I can’t argue with you on Overbay. And I certainly can’t argue with you on Olsen!
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Diaz has been exactly at replacement level so far.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 2, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
And last year Diaz was just slightly above replacement value with the Braves
And made $2.55 million dollars. So the Pirates paid a little less and are getting a little less. I don’t imagine the Pirates were going to expect to get much more than that. Seems right about on target to me!!!!
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why would you deliberately pay, what, $2 million for a replacement-level player? And for two years? By definition, you should be able to find them more cheaply than that.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 2, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I get what you're saying, but we all know that the reality of baseball
Is that for any given season, a large portion of MLB players will play at or around replacement level performance and get paid all kinds of money to do it.
Strictly by the definition that you speak of, any player that’s making more than league minimum that isn’t producing above replacement level, would be considered a waste of money. That would encompass a very large group of veteran baseball players.
So, I suppose, by that definition, you are correct. But I have a hard time lumping Diaz in with Overbay and especially Olsen on anything!
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
especially since Overbay was brought in to be a starter and Olsen was brought in to challenge for a spot in the rotation.
Speaking of which, did anybody ever sign Olsen? I haven’t heard, but I know the Pirates continue to pay him this year unless someone else signs him.
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And I don't mean to pick on what you wrote, Charlie,
Because even though there are many times that I disagree with you, you usually make your points logically and I can respect your opinions….but every so often you’ll make a point (usually in times of frustration…like tonight’s game) by painting with a broad stroke. So much like I didn’t like (and made a big fuss about!!) your “automatic out” comment a few months back, casting a wide net around the bottom half of the lineup (though the top half was struggling mightily as well), this combining Overbay’s failures as a $5 million starter and Olsen’s half-a-million-for- nothing year with Diaz’s OK play was a bit much for me.
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Diaz’s play hasn’t been ok. It’s been way less than ok. A .299 OBP and 337 SLG from a corner outfielder just will not work. I grant that he’s been better than Overbay, but that really says almost nothing.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 3, 2011 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions
charlie, Diaz is a backup outfielder, who starts maybe twice a week...
look around MLB, you could do alot worse
You could, but most teams won’t. Which is why he’s a problem.
by Vlad on Aug 3, 2011 8:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
other teams "backups"...
REDSOX- scutaro, drew, mcdonald… look at their starter crawford, an OPS worse than Overbays at $140+MM???
YANKEES- jones, nunez, posada
PHILLIES- valdez, francisco, schneider
GIANTS- rowand, schierholtz, ross, burriss, whiteside…
every single team has backups that are getting paid to be below average performers.
singling out Diaz comes off as fans just trying to find anything to gripe about.
He wasn’t singling out Diaz, just pointing out that the FA signings this season haven’t contributed much at all (true), which is amazing because we’re at .500. I know Diaz isn’t the biggest problem with this team, but I’m not sure why anybody’s defending him either. Diaz clearly has been a waste of money so far.
nearly the whole team has been a waste of money, if you go entirely off of stats
and yes, Diaz WAS being singled out because of his 2 year contract.
people keep trying to find things that are wrong with this team and end up going for the easy dig… Lyle is gone, now lets ridicule Diaz.
ronny is probably the happiest guy in the Burgh that NH signed Lyle and Matt. now correia.
people keep trying to find things that are wrong with this team and end up going for the easy dig… Lyle is gone, now lets ridicule Diaz.
That’s how you improve a team – you find the most obvious thing wrong with it, and then make it better.
Don’t you want the team to improve? I don’t get it…
no, thats how management improves a team
we dont improve the team. we just sit back and criticize decisions from those we envy…
which is nothing wrong with doing.
but deep down, you know nothing is going to be done about it. overbay is gone, true, so that alone should help. this team cant just drop a player like Diaz and replace him with a gorkys hernandez or john bowker. you could say put Pearce out there more often but IMO thats spinning wheels.
no offense but why not?
I’m not saying that’s the move I make because in all honesty I think Diaz will come back very strong next season but for argument’s sake why couldn’t they replace him with Gorky’s or Bowker. Offensively Diaz has been punchless enough that Bowker could probably match him and Gorkys would definitely play better defense. Right now Diaz is performing at a replacement player level and frankly is showing no signs of coming out of it. I don’t really know how the guys has managed to hit so well in the past because his swing is terrible. However, Diaz has had seasons like this in the past and the importatnt thing to remember with part time players is the SSS issue. Diaz doesn’t even have 200 at bats yet. He’s had down season in the past and followed them up with very solid seasons. So given that he is under control next year I’d probably keep him around. With Ludwick on the roster there won’t be the need to play him as much when Presley and Tabata are back.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
im just counterpointing
i need to hear more than just numbers for a guy to be called a “waste of money”…
aki iwamura? huge waste of money.
Lyle overbay? waste of money
matt diaz? IMO, doing what was i expected
matt diaz? IMO, doing what was i expected
If this is all you expected of him at the time he was signed, you should have complained about it more back then.
i dont complain about my current pirates...
im not a fan of Lee nor Ludwick, and you wont hear me chastise them while they are wearing the black n yellah
but deep down, you know nothing is going to be done about it.
I don’t know any such thing. There were people who didn’t think we’d cut Vazquez or Morris or Iwamura, either… right up until we did.
sure ya did
nobody retires a pirate. they are either traded or released. so eventually, you know that they will be gone…. we just dont know when.
>:-D
every single team has backups that are getting paid to be below average performers.
And every team regrets signing those players. As should we.
I REGRET NOTHING!
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
and every team ends up signing the same players every year...
next year, we’ll probably sign Felipe Lopez and Ross Gload.
and its not just the pirates. its every team in baseball.
explain why this happens?
is it because the teams have guys in the minors that they would prefer to play on a daily basis?
next year, we’ll probably sign Felipe Lopez and Ross Gload.
I hope not.
and its not just the pirates. its every team in baseball.
explain why this happens?
Because no team is baseball is entirely foolproof, since none is run by Baseball Jesus. Everybody makes mistakes at least once in a while.
I guarantee you, though, that all teams try to make as few mistakes as possible, and in the long run some of them are much better at it than others.
Baseball Jesus. Heh.
You win.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
BUDDY JESUS!
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 3, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
its not too big of a mistake if every team does it.
what i mean is that teams like to have experienced guys as backups. sure their numbers arent what they once were, but managers/GMs like have a few around just in case.
mistakes are the signings of Zito, Werth, Crawford (so far), and yes Overbay, even though i believe he was nowhere near the 1st option for NH.
for the price, i believe Diaz is a good addition to this club and brings more than just a below average stick to this team.
Dude what point are you trying to make?
Are you really trying to say that the team shouldn’t improve upon bad players because everyone has them? Or are you saying we, the fans, shouldn’t say that bad players are bad because everyone has them. What exactly does Diaz bring besides an “average” stick which is actually below average this year and below average defense? Are you making the veteranosity argument?
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
i dont think Diaz is a bad player
and im with you; the team should always be on the outlook for better players.
but Diaz is a bench player, and a well respected one at that. i still believe that his addition, along with the other so called bad signings, helped this team more than they hindered…
but this a stat driven conversation so my argument doesnt have grounds.
mistakes are the signings of Zito, Werth, Crawford (so far), and yes Overbay, even though i believe he was nowhere near the 1st option for NH.
Mistakes are mistakes. The size of a particular mistake doesn’t affect the essential question of whether or not it was a mistake – that’s just a matter of scale.
then we should stop talking about the mistakes
and finally start talking about the things that are done right with this team…
but the banter would halt, so we cant have that.
I like talking about good things, too.
But that’s not the conversation that we’re having here. Probably because it’s a game recap on a game where we got bombed by an inferior team.
I know a little about the Giants since I lived in SF for quite awhile and follow them some
Schierholtz and Ross have OPS+s of 105 and 108, respectively. Burriss is a SS who provides plus defense and is making the league minimum. Whiteside is a catcher whose OPS+ of 84 is actually greater than that of Diaz (79) and is also making the league minimum. The only player you mention that is even remotely comparable to Diaz is Rowand who plays plus defense in CF and has a B-R WAR of 1.4 compared to -0.5 for Diaz.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 3, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
enough with the metrics stuff. its more than just math.
if those players were really that good, they would be starting. Ross and Schierholtz have serious limitations and their splits show this. Rowand is a HUGE disappointment with that contract.
the OPS+ stuff means little. you put those guys in a pirates jersey and they would still be unnaceptable to most on this blog.
In other words you are criticizing bench players for
being bench players.
If Diaz was hitting as well as Ross or Schierholtz nobody would be complaing about him. Charlie’s comment that the three players mentioned were a waste of money seems to me to be a completely uncontroverial statement.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 3, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
There's uncontroversial,
and there’s Controversy.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
and i believe its unfair to have expected more from Diaz when he barely plays
he was brought in because Jones is enept against LHP and for veteran leadership.
its a shame theres no metric for that second part.
Ross and Schierholtz have serious limitations and their splits show this.
They do. However, both are providing positive value for the money they are being paid, unlike Diaz.
the OPS+ stuff means little.
Only if you are determined not to understand it.
Hey, Vlad...
check your phone, plz.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
OPS didnt win the 2010 world series
if you go off of just numbers for the Giants batters, they shouldnt have been anywhere near the playoffs.
this is where you say the comparison is not justified because we do not have the Giants pitching.
im just saying, its more than numbers. the only number that matters is putting up more runs than the other team. thats all.
The Giants 2010 OPS+ was 96, which placed them sixth in the NL and first in the NL West.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 3, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
im just saying, its more than numbers. the only number that matters is putting up more runs than the other team. thats all.
Exactly, and all the numbers we look at it help us figure out the best way to achieve that. I’m not really sure how you continue to argue against this fact. We know that it’s difficult to put up better numbers than the other team with a replacment level OPS (for example) and it’s difficult to prevent teams from scoring more runs than us with below average UZR (example) and below average xFIP. I know you know these things so what are you trying to say. Somehow this ties back to Diaz but I forget the original point. But in the end I’ll take numbers over veteranosity any day of the week.
this is where you say the comparison is not justified because we do not have the Giants pitching.
Well yeah, excactly. Being excellent in one area came make up for defficiencies in others.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
I think people undersell their offense from last year. They were, at worst, pretty much exactly the NL average. But everyone acts like they were absolutely anemic.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 3, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
and the Giants fans complained about their offense
almost as much as pirates fans complained about theirs…
almost.
OPS+ may not be the best way to evaluate hitters, but it’s certainly more useful than how much their fans complained.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 3, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
im just saying, its more than numbers. the only number that matters is putting up more runs than the other team. thats all.
And OPS+ tracks very well with runs scored, one half of that whole “putting up more runs than the other team” thing.
Overbay's OPS+ dropped from 105 to 82
and Diaz’ from 99 to 79 and Charlie’s comment that both have been a waste of money is a bit mcuh for you?
he said he understood about Overbay. but the diaz thing is not the same simply because Diaz is not a starter.
an above average bench player is not a bench player, he is a starter.
Strictly by the definition that you speak of, any player that’s making more than league minimum that isn’t producing above replacement level, would be considered a waste of money. That would encompass a very large group of veteran baseball players.
There’s a lesson in that, I think.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 2, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
And that would probably make for a very interesting discussion...
Why is it that MLB teams continue to sign a multitude of players to double, triple, and much more than league minimum, knowing full well that, statistically speaking, a large percentage of those players will perform around replacement level. Wouldn’t these teams be better suited bringing up a slew of replacement level AAA guys? The question becomes: what else does a veteran bring to the table. I’d love to hear some GM’s give some earnest responses to THAT topic!
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Outside of veteranosis, I think it's about known quantity
I’m pretty sure managers and GM like to have players with an history of success (at least marginal) in the Majors rather than young and unknown guys.
If you pay $2 million for Diaz, you know what you’re likely get, and you can expect his worst case scenario to be better than the worst case scenario of a rookie (who may be your next replacement level player available in AAA).
The best case scenario would be to pull a Reggie Sanders like DL did in 2003.
That’s why I could very well see a guy like Torii Hunter getting a good paycheck in 2013 even if his value will likely be questionable then.
Good point
The reality is that it is possible to perform BELOW replacement level, which a AAA guy certainly has the propensity to do. Josh Rodriquez, case in point. At least veterans give you some assurance of replacement level.
Of course, I think the lesson there is that behavior should be limited to contenders who value assurance in their backups … whereas the Pirates could handle a washout in return for an occassional diamond in the rough.
And Matt Stairs ...
and Kenny Lofton … and the two pitchers. All of them were cheap, all of them were at least decent, some were quite good.
DL had a very good year, probably his only good year.
The Pirates still didn’t, for a variety of reasons, some DL’s doing, some not/
The problem is that it’s very hard to identify in advance which of those guys are going to tank and which aren’t.
Not to mention that a certain percentage of true-talent replacement-level performers are going to come in below replacement level in any given season, simply through random variation.
by Vlad on Aug 3, 2011 8:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If replacement level is the “average” player performance, then a would suspect 2 mill is about average for a MLB salary, is it not?
Replacement level is not the average. It’s well below the average.
And, I mean, really … do you think Matt Diaz has been an average player this year?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 3, 2011 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions
should we try to sign Victorino and make him the 4th outfielder???
its unreasonable to think that every player should be above replacement level. if that were the case, pitchers would be well below average and then we would be gripping about how the pitching has gone to hell.
No, it’s not unreasonable. There’s a hell of a lot of ground between Victorino and “replacement level OF”.
A replacement level OF is a random AAA OF from a random AAA team. The kind of guy you could bring in for a nominal cash payment on about fifteen minutes’ notice. Bubba Bell, say.
by Vlad on Aug 3, 2011 8:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It varies depending on whose system you’re talking about, but replacement level is notionally the type of performance you’d get from a random warm body at AAA.
by Vlad on Aug 3, 2011 8:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You are off base on this one, Charlie
KC just kicked ass in Atlanta last week, and had a few RBIs too! KC just has a “PNC problem”.
In 13 on the road: 10-2, 2.74, .231.
Correia in nine starts at home: 2-6, 6.62, .341 average against.
His problem is at HOME, something is in his head, like he wants to please to fans and overthrows, or is afraid of the short right porch. Whatever it is, his mastery on the road shows that he is a top pitcher. Coaching staff needs to help figure out why he sucks only at home. That’s it!
Top pitcher? A true top pitcher can dominate in any park, regardless of location or dimensions, home or away. If your point is that Correia does not completely suck, then I can agree with that, because he’s been solid in the road, just, for whatever reason, absolutely terrible at home.
I really, really, really hope they call up Lincoln for a spot start on Sunday against San Diego. Whether they make the excuse that Correia needs a game off like they gave Charlie awhile back, I don’t care, but they simply cannot let him pitch at PNC again. For whatever reason this park hates him.
The home-road splits are mostly random variation, I think
The real issue is that Corriea just isn’t very good.
There's something vaguely
Ed Whitsonesque sounding about this suggestion. I suppose it could be done in September, if it still matters. But as it stands, Brakeman is right — the Bucs are in no position to go with a roster of 24.5 players.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
We got by with less
while Ciriaco was around.
Um … is around? Is he on the team?
The home/road split is more of a fluke than anything. His SO and BB rates are similar home and away this year, but his BABIP on the road is .246 and at home it’s .355 (coming into tonight). Correia is just a below average pitcher who’s been lucky on the road and unlucky at home this season. His ERA is now up to 4.71, I think if he gets rocked like he did tonight in the next start or two it’s time to bring up Lincoln.
I disagree that he’s just been lucky away. I think he relaxes away and is uptight at PNC for some reason. I saw him “heaving” the ball tonight from the get-go. Tries to overthrow. Ray Searage should do some side by side video home/away and I think he’d see a big difference in body movement.
Gotta agree with BucsFaninCa.
I have a hard time believing a guy can be “lucky” on the road for more than half of a season. I can see someone being lucky for a handful of games, but not nearly 2/3 of a season. Just like I can’t see him being “unlucky” at home for nearly 2/3 of a season.
I think he’s been a decent pitcher all year (not great, not poor) who has happened to have most of his worst starts at home. It’s more of a statistical anomaly, than luck.
by impliedi on Aug 2, 2011 11:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
BFCA
His problem is at HOME, something is in his head, like he wants to please to fans and overthrows, or is afraid of the short right porch. Whatever it is, his mastery on the road shows that he is a top pitcher. Coaching staff needs to help figure out why he sucks only at home. That’s it!
Baloney-Kevin Correia is a just a hum-drum starting pitcher. You’re expecting too much from him. There is nothing in his head that prevents him from pitching well at PNC Park. If anything, he looked worn out and/or injured to me today.
We’ve gotten more than could’ve been reasonably expected from him so far. (He probably would benefit from a move to the ‘pen to limit his innings the last month of the season.) Let’s hope he can pitch a bit better to finish off the season and pitch decently next year as well.
パトリック
There is nothing in his head that prevents him from pitching well at PNC Park.
How do you know this? Are you his psychologist?
he looked worn out and/or injured to me today.
He didn’t look that way in Atlanta last week.
Put on your dancin' shoes.
There is nothing in his head that prevents him from pitching well at PNC Park.
How do you know this? Are you his psychologist?
There’s no proof that there is something in his head, either – that was purely speculation
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 3, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
PensFan024
I wasn’t talking about last week. I was talking about the guy I saw on the mound yesterday. He looks worn out to me, and there is no way he can continue with the innings pace he is on right now-not even close. The team has known this for a while and is planning a six-man rotation soon to cut back on his innings, as well as those of Morton and J-Mac. Also, one or more of the trio will probably go to the ’pen by Sep., with Ohlendorf and Lincoln moving into starting roles.
And we’ll see if Correia’s arm holds up at all. I have my doubts.
パトリック
Correia’s numbers don’t show much of an actual performance difference between home and away. At home, his K rate is 4.35 as opposed to 4.72 on the road. His BB rate is actually better at home, 1.74, and 2.30. And his K/BB ratio is better at home as well. His home run rate is much higher at home as well, which probably shouldn’t happen since PNC is death to right handed power. The real difference is that his BABIP against is .351 at home and .243 on the road. And his strand rate is 57.7% at home, and 78.5% on the road.
So he’s been pitching pretty similarly, maybe a bit better at home. Which is reflected in the fact that he has a 4.11 xFIP at home and 4.25 xFIP on the road. So he should improve at home and regress on the road. It’s just a small sample size and fluctuations in luck.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 3, 2011 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Let’s not forget, last year Correia had no home/away splits ERA-wise. Which is weird for a guy pitching in Petco.
Does that mean Correia was worse at home than on the road, but Petco made it look less worse ?
All things being equal, being a better pitcher at home cannot be considered a skill. So, yeah, I don’t think home/away splits mean anything.
But, and IIRC you’ve already had this conversation with others when Correia signed, I think PETCO helped Correia maintain a lower ERA at home.
I don’t remember if FIP is park-ajusted, but it’s fairly reasonable to think 2 pitchers with the same FIP could have very different ERA depending on their home ballparks (let’s say one pitching half his games in Coors and the other in Petco).
But, and IIRC you’ve already had this conversation with others when Correia signed, I think PETCO helped Correia maintain a lower ERA at home.
PETCO helped Correia’s home ERA, just as it did every other pitcher who pitched for the Padres, regardless of what those pitchers’ actual home/road splits were.
I don’t remember if FIP is park-ajusted…
If you’re getting it from Fangraphs, it’s not.
Yeah
This is why I was hoping we’d pick up some starting pitching at the deadline because we had two guys (Corriea and Morton) that had definitely come down to Earth since the start of the season and Karstens may be starting to run out of magic as well.
You could've brought Cliff Lee in here
And it wouldn’t make much difference if they continue to be unable to score runs.
Personally, I’m glad that they addressed the offense. But, again, this team is still only going to go as far as McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker (and hopefully soon) Tabata takes them. The rotation doesn’t worry me…..now the bullpen, on the other hand, could really use a healthy Evan Meek.
by impliedi on Aug 3, 2011 12:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Tabata even before he went on the DL wasn’t hitting all that great. But he still has potential…It’s getting to the point that maybe he’s just gonna be shut down for the rest of the season and it’ll be Ludwick, McCutchen, and Pressley(once he gets back).
Good by over .500!
We barely knew ya.
See ya again in a few decades!
So onto my love rocket, climb, Inside tank of fuel is not fuel, but love.
IAPF
If you feel so strongly about it, why don’t you climb onto your silly love rocket and fly away?
パトリック
Not familiar with Zlad's Elektronik Supersonik?
Greatest song and music video ever.
So onto my love rocket, climb, Inside tank of fuel is not fuel, but love.
And I would think that you wouldn't take that seriously.
I mean really, a few decades?
So onto my love rocket, climb, Inside tank of fuel is not fuel, but love.
Sorry, there's just been too much gloom and doom here lately.
I’m damn happy to see them at .500 in the first week of Aug. When you think of the team last year, and the so-called FA “additions” for this one, throw in a helluva lot of injuries, and it’s really surprising the team has been this good.
I’m not positive at all about Morton being on the mound today, but I have a feeling the additions of Lee and Ludwick will help the lineup, which over the course of the next 50+ games should offset some of a pitching downturn. When we get to the end of the year, I bet MOST of us will be pleased with the overall season, and be looking forward to possibly better things in ’12.
パトリック
oh my goodness
you would think the US is under attack from the way you guys are shitting bricks about this team right now. The Cubs coming in and winning 2 is no different than us going and getting 2 from Atlanta.
Pirates just need to buck up, and win these next two in the series. They win the next two and no harm no foul, move onto the next series. Anytime you get a 4 game set its crucial to come out with a split. The Pirates can still do this, let’s not jump the gun on the season. Losing streaks are going to happen, and for a team that was meddling around .500 all year, a string of losses will unfortunately but us back into the .500 conversation again.
We still have 2 months left of regular season play, we didn’t let losing streaks in april/may/june/july bother us, why start now. Hell we were swept by the Indians and couldnt catch a break around that Dodgers series. Funny thing is, a win tomorrow and “almost all” will be forgotten.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
This is no place for
prudent, measured thinking.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
In response to some of the discussion above:
As much as I didn’t like Milledge and thought there were some here who couldn’t/didn’t want to see his many shortcomings, the Pirates could’ve paid him less than half this year what they’re paying Diaz, let alone next year’s commitment, and gotten a similar hitter with the ability to do a little more in the OF and on the basepaths.
Personally, I’d rather not see either player in a Bucco uniform. Maybe in the end the Pirates went for nice guy “veteranosity” edge Diaz is supposed to give them, and made MLB happy by spending more money.
パトリック
Both good points
Whatever Diaz is doing, Milledge would have done it for less.
The MLB must be happy : we paid a player twice what was necessary to get the same production. Which exactly reflects what Charlie and impliedi were talking about above.
its more than just production that wins games
our offense is worse now that it was the last third of last season, yet we are a better team despite have many of those same players struggle or get hurt. yes, our pitching has gotten better, but maybe we’re winning games for another reason……….
how many games has the pirates won despite being outhit by the opposition? how often have we seen this in 2011? we get like 5 or 6 hits yet win the game. is it the defense coming up big? was it the pen shutting the door? was it our below average hitters coming through when it matters?
positives
this should answer some questions as to who the pirates will release or demote when everyone is healthy. wood and Jones stepped in and did what you would like them to see. diaz and paul really serve no purpose once tabs, doumit, and presley are back. wood and jones have that ability to hit the ball out of the park, they have a combined 18 HR on the season, diaz and paul have a combined 1 HR on the season. thus, they provide more for a team that is short on power.
The way Hurdle has used/not used Hanrahan since the break.
Confirms my belief that he is just a rah rah guy and actually a terrible manager.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Aug 3, 2011 6:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
The way Hurdle has used/not used Hanrahan since the break.
Confirms my belief that he is just a rah rah guy and actually a terrible manager.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Aug 3, 2011 6:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
problem is...
can you find a manager that won’t have some flaw most of us disagree with? I certainly can’t think of one.
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
Extreme optimists view. Usually when they’ve lost 5 and a row and are at the lowest point of the season they’re 15-25 games under .500
Yeah,
who would have guessed that the Pirates would have been .500 in August? If you would have told me that before the season started I probably would have laughed at you,
#AllTheBuntsAreBad!
i think you did
the only one on here that said the pirates would have a winning record was evenmeek… hes like an idiotsavant.
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