my thoughts on pirates players and prospects

by buccobat on Aug 22, 2011 1:51 PM EDT

Here are a few thoughts about the bucs players.

Garret Jones: I dont know why people hate on him. Yes he strikes out alot and struggles against lefties but he's a quality power bat in a popless lineup and has good OPS. He mashes righties and should start every day until presly returns and start against righties until Lee comes back.

Neil Walker: I know he's the home town kid (which doesn't really matter) and hits for a decent average but it's a pretty empty average and he dosen't walk. he plays below average defense and is overated. I'm not saying he's terrible he just isn't a 4th or 5th hitter. He's is a fan draws people to the ball park. He gives it his all and gets rbis. He just isn't a star or someone you he is a supporting player.

Brandon Wood: I like him. he plays above average D at third and average at short. hes been swinging a solid bat since june and I love his versitility. He may never be a starter but he's a good bat off the bench that plays many positions and has good pop and isn't afraid to draw a walk. that more than makes up for his low average and remember he still has the upside to be a power hitting starter at short or third.

Ryan Ludwick: When the pirates aquired ryan Ludwick you might have thought it's a good deal for us, we didn't give up any legit prospects and we got a potenial impact bat. think again Ludwick stock has gone downhill since 2008 and he will cost us around $2.5- $3 million. Luis herida cost $2.6 mil. So let me ask you a question would you rather sign another luis herida type prospect with lots of potential or a left fielder who i'm not sure is any better than Xavier Paul?

Thoghts on our prospects

Wes Freeman: He is super talented. He has plus power and solid defensive tools. he wasted the first three years of his career but has put it together this year and flashed his potential. He still has major contact issues and poor disipline but I consider him a top 30 prospect because he has starter potential. I don't care that he is extremely likely to be a bust and may never reach because it doesn't matter if a guy has a better chance to reach the if won't be any good because he have no talent. Just because you can put up a decent era or be like Josh Harrison in AAA dosen't a better prospect than freeman. This kid has talent.

Jared Cunningham: I know he plays bad D. I know he doesn't walk. I know he strikes out a lot but the kids simply a good hitter. I could see him being a .260 45 doubles 25 homerun hitter in the bigs one day. He just crushes the ball and if he can find a way to stay at second base and improve his plate approach he becomes very valuable there is a lot of bust potential but I like him.

jordy mercer: I find him intresting. He's in AAA. He hitting for solid power. He plays SS and is good at it. He isn't a walk machine but he gets his fair share. He dosen't strike too much. His average is a slight concern but his other skills make up for it. I could see him putting up a .240/.310/.420 line thats not bad for a player who plays solid defense at a prime. So I'm not sure why he is'nt getting recingnized as one of our better prospects

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

Tweet Comment 55 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Thoughts on your thoughts

1. Garret Jones is a good, but streaky hitter. He can’t field though
2. Neil Walker reminds me of Chase Utley. He puts a lot of effort out, and if he had Ryan Howard hitting behind him, he’d see a ton of fast balls and maybe put up those numbers too.
3. JareK not Jared
4. Please spell check and please complete sentences

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Aug 22, 2011 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

You Like....

…………..some players for exactly the same reasons you DON’T like Neil Walker????

by Skipperron on Aug 22, 2011 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

would you rather sign another luis herida type prospect with lots of potential or a left fielder who i’m not sure is any better than Xavier Paul?

This is a false dilemma. Both/and might reflect the situation better than either/or.

"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein

by SubLime on Aug 22, 2011 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

also

who is to say there was another Heredia out there able to be signed. Also, major league payroll and draft/international FA payroll are separate. Preparing to spend so much on the draft with having Gerrit Cole and Josh Bell to sign this is probably why another Luis Heredia wasn’t signed.

by PuncSpeedChunk on Aug 22, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I want to see more of Jones...

Everyone loves Walker but I think Jones is better and more valuable. Granted Jones plays first and right but his power numbers have been impressive enough for me. Let’s say he plays about 145 or more games a year. Struggles against lefties but remains batting 250… hits 25 homeruns… I understand he struggles against lefties but he has shown when hot he can still hit lefties and maybe there was a reason for his slow start this year. I thought last year he got off to a hot start. I like walker but I wouldn’t ever compare him to Utley!

by Joey Mooney on Aug 22, 2011 2:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

just so i understand your position

Is your take on prospects based on having watched them a lot, or based on their stat lines and reports in the media?

by BurgherKing on Aug 22, 2011 2:13 PM EDT reply actions

Freeman and upside

When you’re thinking about the upside of a given prospect, I think you need to be careful to distinguish between absolute ceiling (99th percentile outcome) and reasonable upside (75/80th percentile outcome). The former isn’t very valuable, IMO, because lots of players could be stars if absolutely everything goes right and they max out their potential. Josh Harrison, for instance, who you use as the no-talent counterpoint to Freeman, could (theoretically, in a best-case scenario) hit .315/.370/.460 with average D at 2B or 3B, which is like 5 WAR. Almost anyone could be a 5 WAR player in a perfect-world scenario.

Does Freeman really have more starter potential than any of the other marginal prospects in the system? His chances of becoming a good major league player are, what, one percent? If you think about potential in terms of 80th percentile outcome rather than absolute ceiling, I think you get a clearer picture of what a guy is likely to be.

by epoc on Aug 22, 2011 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

Wood may not be afraid to draw walks

but he has actually been drawing fewer of them for us (18 in 230 PAs, 7.8%) than Walker (44 in 520 PAs 8.5%) about whom you say “doesn’t walk”.

by WestCoastBuc on Aug 22, 2011 2:53 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah

I’m as big of a Brandon Wood fan as anybody but his plate patience and walking ability are really not things that should be used in support of him. Unless you want to say “Hey, at least he doesn’t have a 12:1 strikeout to walk ratio like he did last year.”

by KentuckyPirate on Aug 22, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

im not saying walkers bad i like him

I just think he’s a little overated.
You can win with him on your team he’s just a core player
i am just saying wood can draw a walk thats not the only reason why i like him.

by buccobat on Aug 22, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

um

he’s not overrated. I’ve pretty much been reading that he’s one of our best players. Which he is. That’s not saying much. He comes through in the clutch, and gets RBI. What’s not to like?

Again, in a better lineup, he’d have better numbers, since he’d see more heaters, which he crushes

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Aug 22, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

so refreshing to hear this

I’ve been saying this forever, but the SABRmagicians are too stubborn to listen

by rennais94 on Aug 23, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah i disagree

well, with concept of Walker being clutch. Whether he’s overrated or not, I don’t know. He’s a good young player.

by BurgherKing on Aug 23, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Walker is a star on our team

He may not be an all-star, but on the present BUCS he is one of the top five players that we have. Cutch, Walker, Jones, Doumit and whoever you want to add: Tabata, Presley, Cedeno? Walker has extra-base power and is tough on pitchers when he has two strikes. How many other Pirates do you want up there with the game on the line?

by pittsburghdad6 on Aug 24, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

How many other Pirates do you want up there with the game on the line?

This address the talent on the team, but not the “clutch” factor that BK was speaking of. Clutch seems to not exist, but if it does Talent >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Clutch

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 24, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

dang, dude, IM the 8th best player on the team, and ive been on the disabled list for two decades!!!

by white angus on Aug 24, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

jordy mercer: I find him intresting. I could see him putting up a .240/.310/.420 line thats not bad for a player who plays solid defense at a prime

Your projected numbers for SLG on Mercer may be a bit of wishful thinking, while your projections for BA and OBP are a nightmare.

As of today, there are 6 SS in MLB, among those qualified for the batting title, with a SLG of .420 or higher (Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro). All of those players are batting at least .268, with all but Hardy batting at least .288 and all but Hardy and Cabrera batting over .300. Each has at least 18 HR except Reyes and Castro, who have 16 and 8 3B, to go with 26 and 28 2B, respectively; Hardy has 23 HR in 380 AB, while Reyes has his 16 triples in 428 AB.

As for OBP, only 7 SS in MLB, among those qualified for the batting title, have a OBP of .310 or less (Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy, Erick Aybar, Alcides Escobar, Yuniesky Betancourt, Ian Desmond and Alex Gonzalez). Of those, all are batting .250 or higher except for Desmond and Gonzalez.

For BA, which I could truly care less about but since you brought it up, only two qualified SS are batting .240 or lower (Desmond and Gonzalez).

So to meet your scenario, Mercer would be one of the worst SS at getting hits or getting on base, but one of the best at getting extra base hits.

For the 23 qualified SS this year to date, the median slash line is .274/.322/.383, and I would be perfectly happy if Mercer gave the Pirates that.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 22, 2011 3:15 PM EDT reply actions

okay maybe my line was a little off

can you tell why he isn’t considered a good prospect

by buccobat on Aug 22, 2011 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

I think most consider him to be an OK prospect

But the reason that he’s not a “good” prospect is that he hasn’t been that good. In 2008, he put up a .663 OPS. In ‘09 it was just .713 and last year it was .702. This year he got off to a very good start after repeating AA but that was mostly due to a shockly high HR rate. After being promoted to Indy, he is now a 24 year old SS with a .700 OPS in AAA. On the plus side, he can handle the position defensively but offensively he’s been below average except for a half season in AA earlier this year.

by KentuckyPirate on Aug 22, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think anyone is saying he isn’t considered a good prospect, just that he is nothing special.

You allude to some of his shortcomings pretty well in your analysis. A .317 OBP at AAA is paltry, especially when people want Ronny Cedeno’s head for being bad at the plate and he has a .300 OBP in the majors.

He hits some doubles (13 so far), but has little HR power (3 this year) and little speed (1 triple, 3 steals in 6 attempts). Dusty Brown, of all people, in the same number of plate appearances, has more doubles, homeruns and almost twice as many walks, and there is no one clamoring to have Dusty brought back to the majors.

Mercer may turn out to be a decent MLB SS, but his AAA numbers don’t exactly project to be above-average in the majors, which is why I don’t think he’s on many people’s “good prospect” radar.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 22, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Not disagreeing with your overall point. . .

but in fairness to Mercer, he has hit 30 doubles 3 triples and 16 HRs this year, across two levels. His ISO of .141 at AAA as a SS isn’t terrible. I think it’s his on-base ability that is holding him back from projecting as a regular because the D seems legit and the power should be at least adequate.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Aug 22, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough

I focused solely on his production at AAA, failing to recognize his significant contributions at AA to start the season.

That said, his OBP is pretty miserable, but if we’ve managed to live with Ronny Cedeno at short this long, Mercer should at least be able to provide comparable defense with a better stick.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 22, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

but Mercer doesnt strikeout a great deal. that OBP could change...

plus if he bats 8th in front of the pitcher, he could have a natural lift in that OBP

by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Using that ISO

would give him a .380 slugging, .680ish OPS, which seems reasonable and ok enough production if he’s playing great D.

by Mr. E on Aug 22, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

okay

I just think mercer has potential to be a power hitting shortstop. They are rare that’s another reason why I like wood.

by buccobat on Aug 22, 2011 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

They are rare

because most power hitters can’t field at short. if you ignore the juice era, there haven’t been many at all

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Aug 22, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

y'know...

there’s a reply button just down there.

by BlindSquirrel on Aug 22, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know why people don't like Jones.

I was swept up with him after seeing him bomb that walk off home run a couple series ago.

by dasox313 on Aug 22, 2011 9:20 PM EDT reply actions

i dont dislike Jones... i just know what he brings to the table.

if the team doesnt find a fixture at 1B, im almost wanting Hague to get the job next season instead of Jones

by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Jones is one of our top five players

He has power, can run, is a decent outfielder and first baseman, steals a few bases, drives in runs. He could be counted on for .250-260, 18-20 homers and 70-75 RBIs if he plays fairly regularly. Those are solid numbers. Where are you going to get that production from without him?

by pittsburghdad6 on Aug 24, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

He is an ok heavy side of the platoon player

and that’s about it. He can’t hit lefties, so that limits his overall value. I like the guy, but its hard to say that he is that valuable when he doesn’t/can’t really play every day. Same debate with Doumit, valuable when he gets time off, but how valuable is a guy that you can only play 4 days a week? Also, not sure what the difference would be in RBI if you put another competent hitter in the spot Jones hits.

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 24, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Doumit

has more value because a it’s not unusual for catchers to not play every day. It’s such a demanding position that you could make a strong case that a 90-60 split between your catchers wouldn’t be a bad way to keep them healthy.

by KentuckyPirate on Aug 24, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions

when Jones plays regularly, and he has for two years now, he doesnt approach those numbers without a couple hot streaks...

in June of last season, Garrett had his best month of 2010, OPSing over 900. he then slumped badly the rest of the year. he had 6 HRs in august, which at first glance comes off as fairly good, but he OPSd 523 that month.

his OPS this month is high highest since last june.

once again im not slamming Jones. i actually like him alot. its fun watching him goof around with mcdonald and tabata on the bench.

but is he really a guy you want manning 1B over the next couple of years? i mean, if he is our 1B, then fine. im just saying that there may be many many better options out there.

by white angus on Aug 24, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not trying to build Jones up too much

as I agree that he is too much of a platoon liability to be a full time starter. However, those numbers (.250, 20 HR, 75 RBI) really aren’t that unrealistic for him. Last year, he hit .247 with 21 bombs and 87 RBI. This year he’s at .246 with 15 HR and 33 games left he could easily get up to 18 HRs this season. He only has 51 RBI but that’s more of a product of his spot in the lineup than any drop in production. It still wouldn’t be shocking to see him get up to 65 RBI this year…

by KentuckyPirate on Aug 24, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

but isnt most of his numbers bunched up through a couple of hot streaks?

kinda like adam laroche, even though laroche was a better player all around? dont you think the team could do better at 1B???

okay, its starting to sound like im anti-Jones on here. im done.

by white angus on Aug 24, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is crazy

with how long you stayed on the GO LYLE GO team. I guess a long season takes its toll on your optimism

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 25, 2011 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions

hahaaaaa...

the anti-Overbay stuff just wore on me. i felt the need to defend Lyle.
but hes gone now. so have at it.

but remember that i never said NOT to replace overbay. i said to replace him with someone worthwhile. not with Jones/pearce, not with Pena, not with Lee…

by white angus on Aug 25, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Neither do I

He is a better hitter than Walker right now, even if he doesn’t improve against lefties, and I think he will. He also is improving at 1st base. What they’re doing with him is working. He hits the ball hard two three times a game, and he is walking less lately, and steadily replacing his walks with doubles and homers. If he keeps this up, he should be the starting first baseman. He’s worked his ass off and earned it.

"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."

by RichieHebner on Aug 23, 2011 1:04 AM EDT reply actions

so you think the looooooooooooooong stretches of poor play will not return to Jones' game?

even though this “hot” streak is pretty much a standard Jones streak?

by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

You seem to really be hating on Jones.

Every player has had a stretch of bad play, excluding Albert Pujols.

by dasox313 on Aug 23, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

no, not hating at all. i like all of my buccos. just stating an opinion which i believe to be correct.

you guys get all giddy when someone comes along and hits a handful of dingers and doubles, and i dont blame ya. on this team, its a rare occurance.

but anyone who believes Jones is our answer at 1B is blinded by his recent outburst.
he was platooned this season for a reason.

by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions

no, not hating at all. i like all of my buccos.

If you were around for the Overbay debates you would know this. If WA is talking anything but positives on a play, you should listen up, ‘cuz he’s probably on to something.

I think he nails it pretty much straight on. Jones is a streaky platoon player, useful, I guess, but no building block. And when he’s bad, he’s really bad.

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 24, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

thank you

ive never slammed any pirate on this site. not even zach duke. im just saying that Jones is on a hot streak and nothing more. hes a decent player but plays a position that we could definately improve upon.

the only positive i really see in Jones is his paycheck is low.

by white angus on Aug 24, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand now after looking at some of the game streaks he had.

I just loved that walk off homerun, it was one of the best hit homers I have ever seen in my life.

by dasox313 on Aug 25, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions

My take. . .

Garret Jones: Not one of the many problems the Pirates have, but only an asset while he is cheap. Acceptable starter in a corner OF or at 1B, but is someone you look to upgrade and will not have a long shelf life.

Neil Walker: Average-to-slightly-above-average 2B when everything is considered. Has a chance to get better, but even if this is what he is, valuable as long as he is cheap.

Brandon Wood: Appears to be an acceptable utility player, should not be starting with any consistency if a team expects to win.

Ryan Ludwick: Will not be with the team next year.

Wes Freeman: Power is legit, but K rate and lack of BB almost certain too much to overcome. Nice to see him finally have some success, but almost certainly tops out in A+.

Jarek Cunningham: Defense, plate discipline and contact rate all major concerns, but the guy can flat out hit and hit with power. I believe (hope) that he can learn just enough discipline to make the hit and power tools play at a corner position.

Jordy Mercer: As mentioned above, reports are the D at SS is more than acceptable and he appears to have at least adequate (if not above average) power for the position, but needs to take a step forward in on-base ability (whether that be through a higher average or more walks) to be a regular. probably ends up a solid back-up infielder.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Aug 23, 2011 9:02 AM EDT reply actions

Mercer does have legit D... ive seen him a bunch. hes not flashy, but he looked good out there. decent arm strength too.

but remember that he also doesnt strike out that much. unlike Marte, whom really needs to work on his OBP, mercer has more patience than Starling.

by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

can you compare Mercer with

[ A ] D’Arnaud
[ B ] Wood

in terms of ability in the field, based on what you saw?

by BurgherKing on Aug 23, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

mercer is quicker to the ball than Wood, and this is at Shortstop of course.

i think they have similar arm strength even though i did see Mercer let one fly one night. definately stronger than d’arnaud’s.

d’arnaud is obviously way more athletic than both, and all 3 have kinda funky right handed swings.

IMO, all 3 can handle shortstop with d’arnaud being the most exciting because of his speed and athleticism. mercer may end up the best of the bunch because his game is “average”, which is not an insult. Wood i think is more valuable on the bench because he can play each infield position and not look bad doing them.

i would hope d’arnaud could take the position because his speed can be a huge offensive weapon, and his range is very good in the field.

by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I have 0 personal knowledge of this. . .

so it is not meant to be argumentative, but, from my recollection, Mercer seems to grade out higher with regard to D at SS in comparison to Chase. In fact, Mercer has been reported as a plus defender for the position, while i has been mentioned that Chase may have to move off the position. How does that reconcile with what you have said?

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Aug 23, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions

im saying that chase may have the most potential because of his speed and athleticism

i said nothing negative about Mercer other than he looks “average” out there. from what ive seen, i wouldnt call him a plus defender. but ive only seen him about 10 times, so i dont have enough to go on.

mercer looks really good in BP though. ball jumps off the bat.

last season in altoona, i saw a couple of games with d’arnaud at SS and mercer at 2B. i didnt see mercer at SS until this season.

by white angus on Aug 24, 2011 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions