Is There Some Higher Force At Work Here?
Something mysterious happens to hitters’ power when they come to Pittsburgh.
2009
Lastings Milledge arrives, having hit 25 HRs in 997 ABs with the Mets and Nats. That’s one every 39.9 ABs. With the Pirates, he hits 8 in 599 ABs. That’s one every 74.9.
The Pirates bring in Eric Hinske to add a veteran whining presence. Hinske had hit 105 HRs in 2906 ABs with the Jays, Red Sox and Rays. That’s one every 27.7 ABs. With the Pirates he hit one in 106 ABs. That’s . . . uh . . . one every 106 ABs. He went on to hit 28 with the Yankees and Braves in 573 ABs, or one every 20.5. His slugging average with the Pirates was .368. His lowest slugging average with any of his five other teams was .406.
2010
The Pirates bring in Ryan Church and Bobby Crosby to make veteran outs off the bench. Church had previously hit 51 HRs in 1675 ABs, or one every 32.8. With the Pirates he hit three in 170 ABs, one every 56.7. He went on to hit two in Arizona in 49 ABs, one every 24.5. With the Pirates he slugged .312. He slugged at least .402 with his other four teams.
Crosby had hit 61 HRs in 2397 ABs with Oakland, one every 39.2. With the Pirates he hit one in 156 ABs. He got only 12 ABs with Arizona and, like Church, is out of baseball.
2011
The Pirates sign Lyle Overbay, on purpose, to play firstbase. Overbay in his career had hit 122 HRs in 3889 ABs, one every 31.9. With the Pirates he hit 8 in 352 ABs, one every 44.
The Pirates also sign Matt Diaz, who had previously hit 43 HRs in 1504 ABs, one every 35, and slugged .456. With the Pirates he has no HRs in 209 ABs and has slugged .330.
At the deadline, the Pirates acquire Ryan Ludwick to add power. Ludwick in his career had hit 115 HRs in 2529 ABs, one every 22 ABs. With the Pirates he has no HRs in 61 ABs.
The Pirates also acquire Derrek Lee at the deadline. Not understanding what he was facing, he hit two HRs in his first Pirate game. He then got hurt and is still out.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Bummed out that they're playing for the Pirates?
Where’s the motivation?
Though this year was going well until that terrible losing streak.
by dulciusXasperis on Aug 22, 2011 11:40 AM EDT reply actions
don't forget Zach Duke
0 HR in 346 PA in Pittsburgh; 2 HR in 22 PA in AZ.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 22, 2011 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Surprised you didn't mention Diaz
but maybe you figured that would be piling on or perhaps you couldn’t calculate how long it would take him to hit one as a Pirate if he continued at his current pace.
In 5 seasons for Atlanta,
Matt Diaz hit 41 HRs in 1385 ABs. That’s a HR every 33.8 ABs.
In Pittsburgh, he has had 209 ABs. And, um, I think it’s been discussed here previously how many HRs he’s hit while wearing black and gold.
by pittbluedevil on Aug 22, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Bring in all the fences to 220 feet
Little League distance. Guys like D’Arnaud, Pearce and Diaz will hit tons of homers. Keep Morton and draft all sinkerball pitchers. Pennant!
by senatorblutarsky on Aug 22, 2011 11:47 AM EDT reply actions
James McDonald's career would be ruined.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 22, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Most of those guys are righties and it’s been mentioned here before that PNC is tough on righties….right?
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Aug 22, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions
Hinske, Church, and Overbay are lefties
I mean, we’re talking small sample size here, and Church’s and Overbay’s problem was that they were done, but there’s a few lefties in there.
At least Brandon Wood is ahead of his career pace.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 22, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I know, that’s why I said most and not all. I’m wondering if Hinske’s issue was tied into this playing time/unhappiness in Pgh (IIRC, he was pretty pissy).
As for Overbay and Church, I’m thinking it just has to do with them being past their primes.
"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto
by blackjackfishtaco on Aug 22, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Past their primes is an understatement
They were past the age where the could play the game at all. Prime was a number long gone for both of them.
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 22, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
veteran whining presence
see what WTM did there?
Lino Donoso
I think that a big part of it...
…is that with the exception of Milledge, all of them were over 30, often well over. Older players exhibiting declining skills shouldn’t be that big a surprise.
The only real exceptions are Milledge and maybe Hinske, who went back to hitting for power after he left. Neither of those is really conclusive, though. Milledge broke his hamate bone and had it removed shortly before we traded for him, a procedure that often suppresses a player’s power for a considerable time after that. Hinske’s time in black and gold was only 106 AB, a pretty small sample, and during his time with us he also put up what was by far the highest walk rate of his career, suggesting that he simply may not have seen too many drivable balls.
It’s an interesting confluence of circumstances, but not much more than that, I don’t think.
Yeah, I suppose, but it’s just uncanny how the power switch seems to flip to “off” the moment these guys arrive. The apparent reason is always different but the outcome is always the same.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Maybe we can make it work to our advantage.
What’s Jason Tyner up to these days? If he loses any more power, he’ll wrap around the other side and go all Bautista on the league.
by Vlad on Aug 22, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We should be careful to draft/sign/trade for guys coming off significant hand/wrist injuries, especially hamate bone breaks.
No one can say-especially outside the organization and without detailed knowledge of their medical histories-how much players like Milledge, An. LaRoche and Alvarez are/were affected by theirs, but it doesn’t look good with the benefit of hindsight.
Alvarez, of course, has a lot of other issues at the plate. But with the other ? marks pre-draft, including his eventual position in the field, perhaps factoring the injury in should have been enough to skip on him.
Sometimes I think we all expect too much out of modern medicine when some things are never made quite right again.
パトリック
Starling Marte
Broke his hamate last year didn’t he…
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 22, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s a pretty common injury. Dustin Pedroia, Pablo Sandoval, Jose Guillen, David Ortiz, Ken Griffey Jr., etc…
Oh I know
I was just clarifying on the nature of Marte’s hand injury from last season…
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 22, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
hahahaha
The Pirates also acquire Derrek Lee at the deadline. Not understanding what he was facing, he hit two HRs in his first Pirate game. He then got hurt and is still out.
are you saying that the evil baseball gods punished him for producing HRs after coming here! Awesome!
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
he does have 11 HR so far this year
at AAA, that is: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=milled001las
Wonder if he brings money like Prince?
And can he play first?
by Joey Mooney on Aug 22, 2011 2:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bowker and Hague have hit more HRs than Milledge and are both over .300.
I’d rather see Hague get a chance for some ABs in Sep.
パトリック
Zeus, Odin, etc,
Yeah, pretty much alla them.
Oh oh I can play this game too!
Matt Stairs had about 1 HR per 23 PA in his career, but it was about 1 in 18 when he was a Pirate! Reggie Sanders was about 1 HR per 23 PA for his career as well, but he was about 1 in 16 as a Pirate! Don’t forget Garrett Jones: 1 HR per 42 PAs before joining the Pirates, and about 1 per 24.5 since. Home run hitters have a history of getting better when coming to Pittsburgh. Hey wait a second…that’s the OPPOSITE point of this article… :)
I love data, but I would want to see more than a handful of cherry-picked examples before reading anything into this.
I love data, but I would want to see more than a handful of cherry-picked examples before reading anything into this.
You DO realize this was intended more to be humorous than anything else . . . .
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
I don't know how you can even have this discussion without countering with the power improvement of Brandon Wood....
With the LAA of A (AAAAAAAAA and A of A – sorry got carried away with the A’s there) – Wood had 11 HRs in 494 PA for 1 every 44.91
Since exploding on the scene in Pgh,, Wood has 7 HRs in 230 PAs (or 1 every 7 HRs).
But, then you look at Ronny, 13 in 977 PAs in the Windy City (1 in 75.15), moves to the luxurious Safeco Field for a year and hits one every 41.20 (5 HRs in 206)…now with the Buccos it’s 1 every 69.13 (15 HRs in 1037 PAs)….so sometimes it works out just right….or does it??
Whoops....
I really got carried away….Wood is 1 every 32.86 for the Pirates (I was looking at the 7 HRs he had – so it’s not 1 every 7)….
But that still doesn't explain Rafael Belliard....
He hits 1 HR every 9 seasons (yes, I do mean seasons) with the Pirates….then goes on to Atlanta for another 8 seasons and hits 1. Soooo, had he played a ninth season with the Braves, does that mean he doesn’t hit one, so it all evens out??
BTW, I liked the analysis, WTM (and I understood the humorous take on it, even if someone else didn't!)
And Mickeyg13....you failed to notice....
that one of Garrett Jones’ 2 pre-Bucco HRs came off of 20-game winner Josh Beckett to deep center field in Fenway Park, in what was to be the game winner….therefore that HR counts as 2, soooo he’s pretty much right on track in his HRs per PA with the Twins and the Pirates, hitting one roughly every 25 PAs..
ummm
it’s also worth pointing out that those guys also saw fastballs in other lineups, since they weren’t big pieces. Then came here and stunk seeing other pitches
Bees Bees Everywhere
....

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
CM PUNK IS MY HERO
Canal Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Aug 22, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
er...
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 22, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking about that one as well
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
CM PUNK IS MY HERO
Canal Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Aug 22, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Nonsense, we haven’t tarped seats since we moved from Three Rivers.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Aug 22, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Case for "protection"
I know that a lot of popular statistical research suggests that “protection” in an order isn’t real, but I think observations such as this do reinforce it. Let’s face it, the common thread between all of these guys — besides (to borrow a phrase from Dejan K.) the seven letters across their chests — is that the Pirates lineups have largely stunk. Guys like Church and Diaz go from being the 6th or 7th best hitter in their previous team’s lineup to being the 3rd or 4th best hitter with the Bucs.
I don’t have any statistical evidence to back up a 100-year-old belief, but it makes sense to me (for instance) that the presence of Albert Pujols influences both the pitches seen by the rest of the lineup as well as psychological makeup of his teammates (the team doesn’t need me to hit a homerun each at bat).
If you look at Lyle Overbay’s splits this year, he hit over 110 points higher out of the 6th spot than the 5th. And even better in limited appearances in the 7th spot.
I’ve often made the case that great players can raise the water level for the rest of the lineup. But I thought Jayson Werth could do that for the Nationals this year and I’ve looked foolish on that one. Who knows?
I believe protection merely changes the character of the player's stats...
I haven’t looked at the data in a while, but I believe protection causes little noticeable change in the overall offensive expectation, but having protection can cause say more HR and RBI balanced by fewer BBs and runs. But regardless, to demonstrate or refute this you would want to broaden your lens to include more examples so that you have enough of a sample size to say something meaningful.
“If you look at Lyle Overbay’s splits this year, he hit over 110 points higher out of the 6th spot than the 5th. And even better in limited appearances in the 7th spot.”
That seems like a case for the reverse of protection, though — surely the lower down in the order he got, the worse the hitter behind him usually was? Well, maybe he had Pedro behind him when he was hitting fifth, but still.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 22, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that a lot of popular statistical research suggests that "protection" in an order isn’t real, but I think observations such as this do reinforce it.
I always take incomplete anecdotal evidence over research. At least, I all the times I remember…
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 22, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Good write up...
www.softball-spot.com/
by CoachBeckyWittenburg on Aug 22, 2011 3:02 PM EDT reply actions
I don't see a pattern here
Only Milledge seriously flamed out, Overbay could have been more productive, but even then wouldn’t have been a big deal. All the other players were longshots when the Pirates got them, and we still have to see with Lee and Ludwick.
I think the term might be
“poor hitting coaches and or poor hitting philosophy that is spewed by management. I mean not all players are meant to try and go the other way, some are the “dont think too much and if you see a drivable pitch turn and rip it”. Sure they may K a bit more but turning everyone into opposite field slap n judy hitters had been a big culprit in the previous 2 years.
They now have Jones turning on the ball and not stepping toward home plate, which was an ugly by product of the ol’ go the other way.
by jackiegleason on Aug 22, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
or....
jones could be having his annual hot streak. you know, the one that gets every one to say “ya know what? he isnt that bad after all. he’ll be a good option for us next year”
but, i hope im wrong.
Good thing Clint Hurdle is here now......
without his well known quality hitting coaching skills and his hitting philosophy, the Pirates would be pulling would be pulling in at 57-105 again; regardless of how well the pitching staff has been doing. Now if he just had better hitters at some key positions….
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
by lighthouse913 on Aug 22, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
after all, he got the Rangers doing fine!
by BurgherKing on Aug 23, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
they really had time to screw over Hinske in those 108 ABs, huh?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 22, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
the view while standing at home plate is mezmerizing...
unfortunately, the view has had little effect on Albert Pujols any of the times he has stood there….
"I choose to gamble with my life
Twice the risk, four times the prize
Nothing knocks me over"
But Albert is a machine.
Accordingly, he is without the emotional apparatus necessary to appreciate the Americana evoked by that magnificent cityscape.
"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein
by SubLime on Aug 22, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Always, always, always, always, always
walk the Pujols.
Nothing good can come of pitching to him.
Even when you get him out, you should have walked him.
This seems like a good candidate for a new man law
“Always walk the Pujols”
“Don’t fruit the beer.”
Operation Shutdown
we payed a guy to not play baseball
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
CM PUNK IS MY HERO
Canal Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Aug 25, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions























