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Is There Some Higher Force At Work Here?

Something mysterious happens to hitters’ power when they come to Pittsburgh.

2009

Lastings Milledge arrives, having hit 25 HRs in 997 ABs with the Mets and Nats. That’s one every 39.9 ABs. With the Pirates, he hits 8 in 599 ABs. That’s one every 74.9.

The Pirates bring in Eric Hinske to add a veteran whining presence. Hinske had hit 105 HRs in 2906 ABs with the Jays, Red Sox and Rays. That’s one every 27.7 ABs. With the Pirates he hit one in 106 ABs. That’s . . . uh . . . one every 106 ABs. He went on to hit 28 with the Yankees and Braves in 573 ABs, or one every 20.5. His slugging average with the Pirates was .368. His lowest slugging average with any of his five other teams was .406.

Star-divide

2010

The Pirates bring in Ryan Church and Bobby Crosby to make veteran outs off the bench. Church had previously hit 51 HRs in 1675 ABs, or one every 32.8. With the Pirates he hit three in 170 ABs, one every 56.7. He went on to hit two in Arizona in 49 ABs, one every 24.5. With the Pirates he slugged .312. He slugged at least .402 with his other four teams.

Crosby had hit 61 HRs in 2397 ABs with Oakland, one every 39.2. With the Pirates he hit one in 156 ABs. He got only 12 ABs with Arizona and, like Church, is out of baseball.

2011

The Pirates sign Lyle Overbay, on purpose, to play firstbase. Overbay in his career had hit 122 HRs in 3889 ABs, one every 31.9. With the Pirates he hit 8 in 352 ABs, one every 44.

The Pirates also sign Matt Diaz, who had previously hit 43 HRs in 1504 ABs, one every 35, and slugged .456.  With the Pirates he has no HRs in 209 ABs and has slugged .330.

At the deadline, the Pirates acquire Ryan Ludwick to add power. Ludwick in his career had hit 115 HRs in 2529 ABs, one every 22 ABs. With the Pirates he has no HRs in 61 ABs.

The Pirates also acquire Derrek Lee at the deadline. Not understanding what he was facing, he hit two HRs in his first Pirate game. He then got hurt and is still out.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

Comment 81 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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Bummed out that they're playing for the Pirates?

Where’s the motivation?

Though this year was going well until that terrible losing streak.

by dulciusXasperis on Aug 22, 2011 11:40 AM EDT reply actions  

don't forget Zach Duke

0 HR in 346 PA in Pittsburgh; 2 HR in 22 PA in AZ.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 22, 2011 11:40 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

nice catch :)

Yinzers uber alles

by BostonBuc on Aug 22, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Surprised you didn't mention Diaz

but maybe you figured that would be piling on or perhaps you couldn’t calculate how long it would take him to hit one as a Pirate if he continued at his current pace.

by WestCoastBuc on Aug 22, 2011 11:46 AM EDT reply actions  

In 5 seasons for Atlanta,

Matt Diaz hit 41 HRs in 1385 ABs. That’s a HR every 33.8 ABs.

In Pittsburgh, he has had 209 ABs. And, um, I think it’s been discussed here previously how many HRs he’s hit while wearing black and gold.

by pittbluedevil on Aug 22, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Argh

Meant to and forgot. I’ll add him.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Aug 22, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bring in all the fences to 220 feet

Little League distance. Guys like D’Arnaud, Pearce and Diaz will hit tons of homers. Keep Morton and draft all sinkerball pitchers. Pennant!

by senatorblutarsky on Aug 22, 2011 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

Most of those guys are righties and it’s been mentioned here before that PNC is tough on righties….right?

"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto

by blackjackfishtaco on Aug 22, 2011 11:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Yep — which makes Cutch that much more amazing at what he does, if you think about it.

Thank you Ned Colletti.

by ryebr3ad on Aug 22, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hinske, Church, and Overbay are lefties

I mean, we’re talking small sample size here, and Church’s and Overbay’s problem was that they were done, but there’s a few lefties in there.

At least Brandon Wood is ahead of his career pace.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 22, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I know, that’s why I said most and not all. I’m wondering if Hinske’s issue was tied into this playing time/unhappiness in Pgh (IIRC, he was pretty pissy).

As for Overbay and Church, I’m thinking it just has to do with them being past their primes.

"When I put on my uniform, I feel I am the proudest man on earth."
-Roberto

by blackjackfishtaco on Aug 22, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Past their primes is an understatement

They were past the age where the could play the game at all. Prime was a number long gone for both of them.

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 22, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

veteran whining presence

see what WTM did there?

Lino Donoso

by Lino Donoso on Aug 22, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that a big part of it...

…is that with the exception of Milledge, all of them were over 30, often well over. Older players exhibiting declining skills shouldn’t be that big a surprise.

The only real exceptions are Milledge and maybe Hinske, who went back to hitting for power after he left. Neither of those is really conclusive, though. Milledge broke his hamate bone and had it removed shortly before we traded for him, a procedure that often suppresses a player’s power for a considerable time after that. Hinske’s time in black and gold was only 106 AB, a pretty small sample, and during his time with us he also put up what was by far the highest walk rate of his career, suggesting that he simply may not have seen too many drivable balls.

It’s an interesting confluence of circumstances, but not much more than that, I don’t think.

by Vlad on Aug 22, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I suppose, but it’s just uncanny how the power switch seems to flip to “off” the moment these guys arrive. The apparent reason is always different but the outcome is always the same.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Aug 22, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe we can make it work to our advantage.

What’s Jason Tyner up to these days? If he loses any more power, he’ll wrap around the other side and go all Bautista on the league.

by Vlad on Aug 22, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

We should be careful to draft/sign/trade for guys coming off significant hand/wrist injuries, especially hamate bone breaks.

No one can say-especially outside the organization and without detailed knowledge of their medical histories-how much players like Milledge, An. LaRoche and Alvarez are/were affected by theirs, but it doesn’t look good with the benefit of hindsight.

Alvarez, of course, has a lot of other issues at the plate. But with the other ? marks pre-draft, including his eventual position in the field, perhaps factoring the injury in should have been enough to skip on him.

Sometimes I think we all expect too much out of modern medicine when some things are never made quite right again.

パトリック

by patthatt on Aug 22, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Starling Marte

Broke his hamate last year didn’t he…

by KentuckyPirate on Aug 22, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s a pretty common injury. Dustin Pedroia, Pablo Sandoval, Jose Guillen, David Ortiz, Ken Griffey Jr., etc…

by Vlad on Aug 22, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh I know

I was just clarifying on the nature of Marte’s hand injury from last season…

by KentuckyPirate on Aug 22, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's simple.

Nutting is too cheap to pay the power bill.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 22, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

hahahaha
The Pirates also acquire Derrek Lee at the deadline. Not understanding what he was facing, he hit two HRs in his first Pirate game. He then got hurt and is still out.

are you saying that the evil baseball gods punished him for producing HRs after coming here! Awesome!

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Aug 22, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions  

The Pirates bring in Eric Hinske to add a veteran whining presence

It’s pretty sad when the front office can’t even successfully choose a clubhouse cancer. :-)

"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein

by SubLime on Aug 22, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Oh oh I can play this game too!

Matt Stairs had about 1 HR per 23 PA in his career, but it was about 1 in 18 when he was a Pirate! Reggie Sanders was about 1 HR per 23 PA for his career as well, but he was about 1 in 16 as a Pirate! Don’t forget Garrett Jones: 1 HR per 42 PAs before joining the Pirates, and about 1 per 24.5 since. Home run hitters have a history of getting better when coming to Pittsburgh. Hey wait a second…that’s the OPPOSITE point of this article… :)

I love data, but I would want to see more than a handful of cherry-picked examples before reading anything into this.

by mickeyg13 on Aug 22, 2011 1:09 PM EDT reply actions  

I love data, but I would want to see more than a handful of cherry-picked examples before reading anything into this.

You DO realize this was intended more to be humorous than anything else . . . .

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Aug 22, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know how you can even have this discussion without countering with the power improvement of Brandon Wood....

With the LAA of A (AAAAAAAAA and A of A – sorry got carried away with the A’s there) – Wood had 11 HRs in 494 PA for 1 every 44.91
Since exploding on the scene in Pgh,, Wood has 7 HRs in 230 PAs (or 1 every 7 HRs).

But, then you look at Ronny, 13 in 977 PAs in the Windy City (1 in 75.15), moves to the luxurious Safeco Field for a year and hits one every 41.20 (5 HRs in 206)…now with the Buccos it’s 1 every 69.13 (15 HRs in 1037 PAs)….so sometimes it works out just right….or does it??

by impliedi on Aug 22, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whoops....

I really got carried away….Wood is 1 every 32.86 for the Pirates (I was looking at the 7 HRs he had – so it’s not 1 every 7)….

by impliedi on Aug 22, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

But that still doesn't explain Rafael Belliard....

He hits 1 HR every 9 seasons (yes, I do mean seasons) with the Pirates….then goes on to Atlanta for another 8 seasons and hits 1. Soooo, had he played a ninth season with the Braves, does that mean he doesn’t hit one, so it all evens out??

by impliedi on Aug 22, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

And Mickeyg13....you failed to notice....

that one of Garrett Jones’ 2 pre-Bucco HRs came off of 20-game winner Josh Beckett to deep center field in Fenway Park, in what was to be the game winner….therefore that HR counts as 2, soooo he’s pretty much right on track in his HRs per PA with the Twins and the Pirates, hitting one roughly every 25 PAs..

by impliedi on Aug 22, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

No I didn't...

Apparently my sarcasm detector needs a tune-up…

by mickeyg13 on Aug 22, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

For being man enough to admit that you missed the boat on WTM’s intent.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 22, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

ummm

it’s also worth pointing out that those guys also saw fastballs in other lineups, since they weren’t big pieces. Then came here and stunk seeing other pitches

Bees Bees Everywhere

by VoteforPedro on Aug 22, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

....

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
CM PUNK IS MY HERO
Canal Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Aug 22, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

er...

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 22, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was thinking about that one as well

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
CM PUNK IS MY HERO
Canal Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Aug 22, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nonsense, we haven’t tarped seats since we moved from Three Rivers.

http://bleedblackandgold.com/

by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Aug 22, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Case for "protection"

I know that a lot of popular statistical research suggests that “protection” in an order isn’t real, but I think observations such as this do reinforce it. Let’s face it, the common thread between all of these guys — besides (to borrow a phrase from Dejan K.) the seven letters across their chests — is that the Pirates lineups have largely stunk. Guys like Church and Diaz go from being the 6th or 7th best hitter in their previous team’s lineup to being the 3rd or 4th best hitter with the Bucs.

I don’t have any statistical evidence to back up a 100-year-old belief, but it makes sense to me (for instance) that the presence of Albert Pujols influences both the pitches seen by the rest of the lineup as well as psychological makeup of his teammates (the team doesn’t need me to hit a homerun each at bat).

If you look at Lyle Overbay’s splits this year, he hit over 110 points higher out of the 6th spot than the 5th. And even better in limited appearances in the 7th spot.

I’ve often made the case that great players can raise the water level for the rest of the lineup. But I thought Jayson Werth could do that for the Nationals this year and I’ve looked foolish on that one. Who knows?

by Fat Jimmy on Aug 22, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe protection merely changes the character of the player's stats...

I haven’t looked at the data in a while, but I believe protection causes little noticeable change in the overall offensive expectation, but having protection can cause say more HR and RBI balanced by fewer BBs and runs. But regardless, to demonstrate or refute this you would want to broaden your lens to include more examples so that you have enough of a sample size to say something meaningful.

by mickeyg13 on Aug 22, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

“If you look at Lyle Overbay’s splits this year, he hit over 110 points higher out of the 6th spot than the 5th. And even better in limited appearances in the 7th spot.”

That seems like a case for the reverse of protection, though — surely the lower down in the order he got, the worse the hitter behind him usually was? Well, maybe he had Pedro behind him when he was hitting fifth, but still.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 22, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I think you can be protected by who hits in front of you, too. But my primary point was that I think a lack of talent in the lineup can drag people down. As he got lower in the order and less emphasis was placed on getting him out, he performed better.

by Fat Jimmy on Aug 22, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seems like random variance within the tranches of a small sample size to me.

by Vlad on Aug 22, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

agreed

i believe that, over his career, Overbay’s best spot in the lineup was cleanup, which he nearly hit 300 with an OPS of nearly 870

by white angus on Aug 22, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know that a lot of popular statistical research suggests that "protection" in an order isn’t real, but I think observations such as this do reinforce it.

I always take incomplete anecdotal evidence over research. At least, I all the times I remember…

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 22, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see a pattern here

Only Milledge seriously flamed out, Overbay could have been more productive, but even then wouldn’t have been a big deal. All the other players were longshots when the Pirates got them, and we still have to see with Lee and Ludwick.

by schraderfan on Aug 22, 2011 3:48 PM EDT reply actions  

I think the term might be

“poor hitting coaches and or poor hitting philosophy that is spewed by management. I mean not all players are meant to try and go the other way, some are the “dont think too much and if you see a drivable pitch turn and rip it”. Sure they may K a bit more but turning everyone into opposite field slap n judy hitters had been a big culprit in the previous 2 years.

They now have Jones turning on the ball and not stepping toward home plate, which was an ugly by product of the ol’ go the other way.

by jackiegleason on Aug 22, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

or....

jones could be having his annual hot streak. you know, the one that gets every one to say “ya know what? he isnt that bad after all. he’ll be a good option for us next year”

but, i hope im wrong.

by white angus on Aug 22, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

So the fact that Bobby Crosby had put up a 70 OPS+ in the four seasons before we signed him didn’t have anything to do with him sucking? It’s all on the coaches and the organizational hitting philosophy?

by Vlad on Aug 22, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good thing Clint Hurdle is here now......

without his well known quality hitting coaching skills and his hitting philosophy, the Pirates would be pulling would be pulling in at 57-105 again; regardless of how well the pitching staff has been doing. Now if he just had better hitters at some key positions….

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Aug 22, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

after all, he got the Rangers doing fine!

by BurgherKing on Aug 23, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah...

they really had time to screw over Hinske in those 108 ABs, huh?

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 22, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

the view while standing at home plate is mezmerizing...

unfortunately, the view has had little effect on Albert Pujols any of the times he has stood there….

"I choose to gamble with my life

Twice the risk, four times the prize

Nothing knocks me over"

by lighthouse913 on Aug 22, 2011 8:16 PM EDT reply actions  

But Albert is a machine.

Accordingly, he is without the emotional apparatus necessary to appreciate the Americana evoked by that magnificent cityscape.

"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein

by SubLime on Aug 22, 2011 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions   3 recs

rec'd

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Aug 23, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Always, always, always, always, always

walk the Pujols.

Nothing good can come of pitching to him.

Even when you get him out, you should have walked him.

by bucdaddy on Aug 23, 2011 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

This seems like a good candidate for a new man law

“Always walk the Pujols”
“Don’t fruit the beer.”

by mattygabe on Aug 23, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Don’t fruit the beer."

This cannot be emphasized enough.

Put on your dancin' shoes.

by PensFan024 on Aug 23, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or Mondesi?

Or Operation Shutdown.

I can’t decide who was more deplorable.

by lloyd95 on Aug 23, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Operation Shutdown

we payed a guy to not play baseball

Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
CM PUNK IS MY HERO
Canal Chronicles resident Steelers Fan

by WVPiratesfan on Aug 25, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

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