Down on the Farm and where will they be come 2012
by C Shint on Aug 23, 2011 1:35 AM EDT
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8/22/11
A few more go showings down on the farm tonight had me thinking where some players might be at to start 2012. A lot of debate a few weeks back about the farm system and how it ranks. How the prospects were doing and who was moving forwards and backwards. Then we signed more quality talent and things got even more debatable.
My thinking is that a lot of the really talented guys are at the lower levels and it appears will be pushed forward in 2012. It could potentially be a very, very big season for the Pirates system as a whole. I think we'll really start to develop an understanding of what guys are panning out and which are not. So I figured, with the minor league schedules slowly wrapping up over the next few weeks, lets have some fun with some interesting players.
Starting from the top level and working down, I'll throw out some names and some opinions on where they may start in 2012.
Pedro Alvarez (AAA) - struggles all season long at the plate. Wasn't much better in the field either. By no means is it time to give up on Petey yet, but it'll take some time to find his stroke and lay off the junk. Prediction: AAA
Matt Hague (AAA) - not on the 40 man as of 2011. Not sure if he'll need to be protected this winter either. If he does get brought onto the roster though, I would assume he has a good chance to make his case in ST. Has hit well all season and at each level has shown good plate discipline. Prediction: AAA
Gorkys Hernandez (AAA) - having one of his better seasons at the plate. Gorkys is quick and a good fielder. Apparently his base running skills are lack luster but CH appears to like a speedy/aggressive team. Could be next years XP? At worst, I think he finally gets a shot sometime at the bigs next season, but just to spice it up...Prediction: MLB
Tony Sanchez (AA) - a disappointing year for Sanchez to say the least. But for a guy that had a good shot at Pittsburgh in 2012 before the season started, it may not come to happen. Not exactly sure what the FO will be looking at when determining where or how Sanchez advances through the minors. I'll guess he has gotta show a bit more with the bat before moving on. Prediction: AA
Kyle McPherson (AA) - really lit the place up this season. Was it just a one year wonder or can he repeat success? The FO generally takes the slow approach with pitchers, so I'm thinking he is back to AA next year but they did protect him last winter because I'm sure they saw something in him and so far at AA, so good. Oh what the hey. Prediction: AAA
Jarek Cunningham (A+) - Can't argue with the power numbers. Can argue with the K numbers. Can also argue with the fielding numbers. Not sure what management would like to stress here and its doubtful he improves strike zone control moving up to AA (considered the hardest jump to make). Prediction: A+
Elevys Gonzalez (A+) - Doubles power. Not sure how his glove plays, but from the stats, it looks like he may be in line for a bump up. Prediction: AA
Ramon Cabrera (A+) - The little guy is going to have to hit his way to each level. Well, so far he is doing it. His placement may hinge on the likes of Tony Sanchez and whether or not he moves up. I would like for Cabrera to keep catching so splitting time with Sanchez won't help either one of their cases. Prediction: A+
Jameson Taillon (A) - It would be hard to swallow seeing Taillons name on the WV roster again to start 2012. At 79.2IP as of now, I would think they bump him up not only level wise but to around 120-130IP next year. Prediction: A+
Zack Von Rosenberg (A) - Very tricky. His velocity hasn't gone up as some thought it might. His ERA is pretty high, but it's been coming down of late. He had another solid outing tonight and the thing to behold is his BB:K rate. Its encouraging but I wonder if that is enough to move him up. If there is space for ZVR without hindering the likes of Taillon or Cain or someone from being in the rotation at Bradenton, then he should be there. Prediction: A+
Nick Kingham (SC/A) - Has lead the pack at SC this year. Talk about a guy with some velocity and a frame to add to. Can't wait for Kingham to show his stuff for a full season. Prediction: A
Stetson Allie (SC/A) - I guess Allie was delegated to BP duty at SC? He really hasn't thrown a lot of innings and the control problems are still there. I think he moves along after an extending spring, but I look for him to piggy back some starts as they continue to work on his control. Prediction: A
Gerrit Cole (College) - I'm expecting him in high A. Would love to see him at Altoona though. Could you imagine that Bradenton rotation though? Phew. Prediction: A+
Josh Bell (HS) - WV seems more than likely, but could management think outside the box here and give him a shot at A+? This is where I channel my liking for how Atlanta runs their minor leagues. They tend to push the young guys through the lower minors with advanced placement and such. I don't want to rush Bell, but why not give him the chance to exceed starting out at Bradenton. If he struggles after a few weeks, move him down to WV for the remainder of the year. Oh out on a limb again here. Predction: A+
Just something to get the brain going again on the Minor's. Its a year away and things can change, but I had nothing else to write about/waste my time on tonight so have at it.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Josh Bell
Is Bell playing winter ball this year? If so, I’d bet his level of assignment would be pretty heavily influenced by his performance.
If Bell skips the Winter League, then I would not want the Pirates to push him. I’d rather him start off too low and kill the ball than have him struggle in a higher level. Bell has never been overmatched, I don’t know how he would react if he struggled and was demoted.
Agreed...
I think WV is most likely. He is their best hitting prospect, doubt they push him too hard, but I dont think they will wait around for short season ball either. Other than that, I think I agree with pretty much all of your other placements.
If any of these guys
has the make-up to charge into the fire, then Bell impresses me as that guy. Still, I’m glad that this is not my decision.
"The limits of my language mean the limits of my world" -- Ludwig Wittgenstein
Bell
I don’t think there’s any chance he starts in Bradenton. Even Bryce Harper didn’t start in A+. I think the choice is between SC and WV. Most high first-round HS hitters go to A ball the year after the draft, but the Pirates tend to take things pretty slow.
I would guess extended spring then WV in early-to-mid May for Bell.
I think it is unlikley that the Bucs wait to mid-June for Bell to make his appearance in league play.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Tony Sanchez...
prior to the season…if you would have told me that he would start in AA…and that we’d have 7 catchers on the roster at different times…I’d have assumed that he’d be one of them (at least for a few games). Big disappointment. He’s got a lot of work to do. Repeating Altoona sounds about right.
i wouldnt be surprised if Sanchez starts in AAA...
d’arnaud had a poor 2010 in altoona yet started the season in Indy in 2011. i think sanchez, just maybe, does the same.
i would still bet on Altoona, but Indy wouldnt surprise me at all.
by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d bet on Indy. Same situation as d’Arnaud: he’s got the skills to move up, they won’t let the performance keep him down.
Problem being...
have the Pirates really seen the skills??
I don't understand your question
Are you asking if he’s actually exhibiting the skills this year? Or are you asking if the Pirates have watched him enough to know whether he has or not? I’d imagine the answer to the latter is yes, though I have no way of knowing for sure.
As to the first question, I haven’t seen him play this year, so I can’t say for sure, but his K and BB rates are in line with where they’ve been the last couple years, so I’m guessing he’s still exhibiting good strike zone control. NH has said a couple of times that Sanchez’s problem is that he’s trying to do too much. That could be FO BS, but it’s at least some indication that the FO thinks Sanchez’s problems are poor performance, not poor skills. Jim Callis, in the interview DTodd linked a few days ago, said that he still sees Sanchez basically the same way he saw him last year, as a gold glove defender and okay hitter, which again suggests that Sanchez’s skills are still intact. So, as far as I can tell, Sanchez is still exhibiting the skills that made/make him a good prospect.
I'd bet on Indy
because the payout would be better (lower odds)
by BlindSquirrel on Aug 23, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Gorkys...
will likely play in the majors next season…but it may not be with the Pirates. If one assumes that Tabata, Cutch and Presley are the starters, then Gorkys is a 4th or 5th OF, with Diaz the other one, short of eating $2M from cutting Diaz. Might be a situation where he’s part of a deal for a useful piece like a starting pitcher, SS or 1B.
I doubt
Matt Diaz is on the opening day roster next year. I’m not trying to steer this thread towards Diaz-bashing I just don’t see what he adds to the roster. I could easily see them going with Paul, Gorkys and (kinda) GI Jones as the backup OF’s next year. They also might try to deal Presley while his value is high and bring in a mid-level FA to play the outfield like Jason Kubel (although I think this scenario is unlikely).
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 23, 2011 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions
On Trading Alex Presley
Mind you, I don’t believe that Alex Presley is going to be a long-term fixture in the Pirates’ OF (although I would love for him to keep hitting and prove me wrong), but I’m not sure if dealing him and bringing in a Jason Kubel-type is the answer, for a number of reasons:
1. I’m not certain that Kubel is that much of an upgrade. He hits for some power, has a decent OBP but little speed. He’ll probably get between $6MM and $8MM on the open market, and I think Presley could be just as valuable (less power, but more speed and better defense) for a fraction of the cost.
2. It appears that one of the selling points for the Tabata contract may be that he gets to play RF, which would mean Kubel would have to play LF, which I am not sure he could handle at PNC Park. I could be wrong about Tabata, but if that is part of the deal (written or just an understanding), Presley would be needed to man LF next year.
3. I don’t think Presley has as much value as we would like to think, and for that reason alone, I would hold onto him. He could be a very valuable 4th OF in the case that the team signs a Kubel-type and Tabata stays in LF. He could back up all three OF positions, be a defensive replacement for Kubel late in games and would enable Hurdle to give McCutcheon more than the once-per-month day off.
I don’t think Presley has as much value as we would like to think, and for that reason alone, I would hold onto him.
This. We’re looking at 100 MLB PAs this year and two years of tearing up AA/AAA pitching. Other GMs are looking at an 8th-round pick who struggled mightily in his first four years of professional baseball. Rightly or wrongly, they’re not going to give much for that.
The reasons
You both stated are the main reasons I think that scenario is unlikely. I think Kubel would fit nicely into the Pirates lineup and I think they could afford him, but this is exactly why I think Presley is likely to be our 3rd OF next year.
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 23, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
kubel will fit better on the pirates if they move him to 1B
by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Not likely...
…as Jason Kubel has never played an inning of 1B in the majors.
I sure as heck would hope the Pirates wouldn’t give him $7MM+ (and a possible 1st-round pick if he achieves Type A status) to be our 1B with no assurance that he can actually play the position any better than Garrett Jones, yet another cheaper option who may actually be better (albeit in a strict platoon that keeps him away from as many LHP as possible).
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
so what... lots of 1Bmen didnt play 1B until later in their careers.
but sticking with a platoon at a premium offensive position doesnt sound like a team moving forward in its plans.
I just don't like the idea...
…of giving Kubel the kind of FA money that he will command and putting him at a position he’s never played before. It would be Clement-esque on a much larger scale.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
how so?
kubel is a proven MLB hitter while Clement was just trying to establish himself in the majors.
the only similarity between the two is they both bat left handed.
comparing Kubel to Clement in any way makes no sense at all.
I was referring to their...
…ability to play first base with any type of proficiency, which is probably about the same based on their respective lack of experience at the position.
As for Kubel being a proven MLB hitter, that is only important if the Pirates are looking for a DH, which they most-assuredly are not.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
clement wasnt bad at 1B, he was bad at the plate.
theres no reason to think that Kubel couldnt play 1B. its not like the team is asking him to man 3B or C.
I think Presley ends up an awesome 4th OF. . .
behind Marte-McCutchen-Tabata. Man, that’s an athletic OF.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
I think I agree with every one of your rankings except
I’d be pretty stunned to see Bell open in Bradenton.
Also, what are the thoughts on Luis Heredia? State College?
It would make some sense to have him at SC. Then again, he is at an age where keeping him in the GCL for another year wouldn’t hurt. The problem is I’m not sure how to gauge a 16-17yr old at that level. He spent the year at the GCL and had no set backs, so following this FOs MO, he should spend all of ’12 at SC if I had to guess.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Pedro
Just figured I’d throw in that Pedro will technically be out of options next season. I think he is eligible to be granted another option due to burning his so quick, but not sure about that.
Correct
He will have 1 more option at the start of next season
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 23, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
About Pedro
From a fangraphs fanchat on Monday
[Comment From Hope & FaithHope & Faith: ]
Is there a realistic reason to have guarded optimism for the Pirates for 2012 and beyond? Do you think Pedro was simply rushed and will rebound next season?
Dan Szymborski:
Pedro will be fine, most players are in the end.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 8:51 AM EDT reply actions
Oh
and from the some answer..
Dan Szymborski:
They really need to stay on their rebuilding path, though. If they short-circuit it early, like the Orioles do, it won’t end well, even in a weaker division.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Not really
Most players never make it. Every year teams draft 50 guys and sign half of those, plus another couple dozen international players. Out of all those, only a handful ever make the majors and even fewers still become productive, everyday players much less stars.
First rounders have better odds, of course, but even there something like 1/3rd never make the majors and only 1/5th have productive careers. And the Pirates certainly know about how really high 1st round picks can wash out.
Yeah, but Pedro Alvarez isn’t a generic minor leaguer drawn from a hat, he’s a guy that’s played very well in the upper minors at a very young age. Most of those guys are OK.
by D.Szymborski on Aug 24, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Where
do y’all think Wes Freeman should be. He’s already 21, but is very talented, was considered raw, and has a breakout year (meaning he went from dead to a legit prospect; not saying he’s a top 20 guy in the system or anything).
Should the Pirates try and push him to Bradenton where he would be at an appropriate ARL, or just take it slow and send him to WV next year?
I’m leaning towards the Bradenton angle myself.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 9:12 AM EDT reply actions
well
Santos, Grossman and C.Anderson should be moving on. Other than Rojas I really don’t care for much of the OF prospects at WV. Idk maybe they give Taylor Lewis the chance at Bradenton or Freeman.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
No
love for Mel Rojas Jr? Dude still has tools and has had a much better second half, especially his plate discipline.
He’s probably a top 20 prospect for me systemwise.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh
wow. I’m blind. Grovatt is fairly interesting, but his ceiling is probably a 4th OF. You need those guys those and depth is always good.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 24, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
i d say WV
If he mashes, they could move him up in July. His prospect status is hanging by a thread.
Yup
but I think 2 good months is enough to push him to Bradenton. I’d be aggressive with how old he is
He's not really that old.
He’s been in the system or a while, but he’s not really old.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Cole
I think Cole should start at double-A, based on the recent history of big-time college pitchers. Hell, Bauer’s already in AA and going to pitch in the majors in September (maybe…probably). This isn’t a high school kid..this is a guy that should be pushed and I would think hopefully sees time in the bigs next year.
Ehhh
I don’t think the Bucs should look at how other teams move their pitching prospects and say “well if so and so is here, our guy should be too.” Especially with Cole, since he has some issues to iron out. I’d say Bradenton, but with the opportunity to move quickly, like say to the Toona at the end of the year, and if all goes well, expect him up in mid 2013.
by NastyNate82 on Aug 23, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Cole isnt in a race with Bauer
he should start at high-A, master everything he needs before moving on to AA. I also dont mind the fact that waiting a few months will mean the weather in Altoona is much nicer when he gets there…
by BurgherKing on Aug 23, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
this... is actually the best idea about Cole ive heard yet.
good one, BK
by white angus on Aug 23, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus
I’m sure we pressed for a minor-league contract for a reason. He is more of a project than your typical college pitcher, likeDavid Price and Stephen Strasburg. It may take three years for him to make the show, and that’s fine because he also has a higher ceiling than Price.. and.. well Strasburg is a freak.
In addition, I don’t see the reason to try and accelerate his rise to the majors. Why not just promote him and Taillon in lock-step, and when they arrive 2014-2015 you have that formidable top 2 on your pitching staff for the next 6 years.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
i read that cole
turned down a 5 yr major league contract for 8.5 million for the 8.0 mil up front minor league contract.
by dynastycoming on Aug 23, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
heard the same
The minor league deal is more present value money, since the entire bonus has to be paid by the end of 2012 (instead of spread out over the length of the contract).
Cole
I don’t agree with your assessment of Cole. He’s not any more of a project than David Price, who had pretty big command issues of his own. Like with Price, Cole’s stuff should get him to the majors in short order, even if his command lags behind. I could see the Pirates taking it slow with him, but “slow” would be two years in the minors at the most. Three years in the minors for Cole would be glacial. He could be up by next September if everything goes well.
i coulda swore that Price didnt really have any faults in his game.
he was deemed a cant miss, and a future star, by pretty much every outlet. i never heard anything about his command issues.
I remember
the same thing. The only issue with him I remember was lack of a 3rd pitch, which is still an “issue.”
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
now THIS ive heard
as a Rays follower, i can positively give my word that Price was considered one of the best LHP prospects EVER. and his command was some of the best coming from the college ranks in years.
command issues
Yeah, he was considered by everybody to be a future star, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t concerns with his game. In addition to the fringy changeup he had when drafted, here is a scouting report that says he needs better command. Command was a concern for him all through the minors and into his major league career, and here is a report from just this spring claiming that his command is still only fringe-average. I remember hearing a lot of talk about how he’d never developed his command before getting to the majors because his stuff was so good he didn’t need to command it that well.
In regards to his "3rd pitch" issues
Does anyone know if he has a change that he’s developed or if he’s still pretty much fastball-slider still?
He developed a good change pretty quickly in the minors (common in the Rays’ system), and he’s also developed a curve that he uses more than his slider now.
Hmmm, thats pretty impressive...
Were his issues more command or control? I’m trying to think in how comparable he is to Cole.
command
Not control. I think Cole and Price are pretty comparable. They’re probably the second- and third-best college pitchers to come out of the draft in the last five years (after Strasburg). I like Cole better now than Price at the same point, though. A lot has been made of Cole’s command/performance issues, but I really don’t think they’re a big concern. He just needs to learn not to throw thigh-high fastballs. It shouldn’t be a difficult process. And Cole’s got three plus-plus pitches (Price had two). You won’t find many major leaguers, let alone prospects, with three plus-plus pitches. In Price’s favor, he is/was left-handed.
interesting
He developed a good change pretty quickly in the minors (common in the Rays’ system)
do they have someone that can teach it well?
I don't really know.
I don’t follow them that closely, so I don’t know what the deal is exactly. All I know, from reading about their prospects a little bit, is that they have a really good track record of getting their pitching prospects to develop strong changeups.
agree
I don’t think AA would even really be a “push.” I don’t think there’s anything to be gained by starting him in A ball.
but the Pirates are going to want to tweak some things with Cole so that he keeps the ball down more. If that means he spends a month or two in Bradenton, I don’t have a problem with that and thats what I’m guessing is what happens. Although, I agree with you, AA really isn’t a push for a guy like Cole.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
yeah
Cole actually could benefit from the whole “fastball command” program in the Pirates’ low minors.
Cesar Lopez
I’m curious where Lopez will start next year. He’ll be 21 and was supposedly pretty advanced when we signed him. He had already pitched professionally in Cuba. Will he go directly to full-season ball? Could he skip the SAL and go right to Bradenton?
I bet
you see him in Bradenton.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 23, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
oh wow
a potentially even bigger crowd at Bradenton, not that its a bad thing but it really looks like there could be a log jam there esp if they intend to stretch guys out that pitched in WV the year before.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Good
point. WV would be a fine option for him.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 24, 2011 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
i mean
if he is ready for A+ then a jam up should not prevent him from doing that. So they have a few less bullpen arms. I really wouldn’t mind seeing them piggy back starts at Bradenton next year if thats what it takes to have all these guys move up to that level of play.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
hmmm
I started to disagree with you, but the more I thought about it, the more you’re right. He’ll turn 21 in December, so 2012 would be his JR season in college if he was from the states (assuming he went to college). He got $600K, which is 2nd- or 3rd-round money in the draft, but being an IFA you’d expect him to get more than an equivalent domestic draft pick would. A 4th-round college pitcher would probably start in either A- or A after signing, so yeah, Bradenton is probably too aggressive. Considering he pitched professionally in Cuba and supposedly has three decent pitches, I’d hope he’s ready for full-season ball next year, so probably WV. That WV rotation is going to be pretty stacked, too: Allie, Kingham, Hafner, Lopez. Jefferson, Cooper, Poytress, Stevenson, and Benedict are all going to be fighting for the fifth spot.
yeah
that’s about what my thinking is based on. In general with prospects, I prefer them to go one level at a time. If they go out and flat dominate the opposition, by all means move them up.
However, this comes with the caveat that I never see these guys play (beyond Youtube clips, which are admittedly hard to get reads off of), so if someone is more advanced (as Lopez might be) I wouldn’t know. However, my thinking was exactly on the lines of the approach they took with Cumpton. (That said, they did start Justin Wilson out in high-A, so its not impossible)
by BurgherKing on Aug 24, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
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