Clint Hurdle Wants Pirates To Steal More Bases
Anyone else read this and groan? Rob Biertempfel reports that Clint Hurdle wants the Bucs to "be more active" on the basepaths, particularly by stealing more bases.
The Pirates' high degree of activity on the bases this season has already been really annoying. They've run into tons of outs at key times, and have been one of the worst baserunning teams in the majors despite having a bunch of young, fast players who are supposed to be good baserunners. It's not totally clear from the article whether "be more active" simply means stealing more bases, or things like hit-and-runs as well, though, so let's let's just restrict this discussion to basestealing.
Their 68 percent success rate when stealing is 24th in the majors. I'm not sure where exactly the break-even point is in this run-scoring environment, but that's probably pretty close. With guys like Andrew McCutchen, Chase D'Arnaud and Jose Tabata on the team, they really should be doing better than that. The way to increase the value they're getting from basestealing isn't to steal more. It might actually be to steal less, or at least to find more favorable situations. Stealing third more often, as Biertempfel reports Hurdle wants to do, is not the answer. Most of his players are having a hard enough time stealing second. It must be tempting to go crazy now that he's got Tabata, D'Arnaud and Alex Presley back, but Hurdle really needs to be looking for high-percentage situations to steal, not looking to steal more.
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A couple different....
things here. The “break-even” that Charlie references is in the low 70s, so 67% after last night, is really sub-standard.
I’m all for this team running more, as long as they run smarter which is really what I think Charlie was focusing on. There are times, like Presley’s ball into right center last night, where he cruised into second standing up. That is aggressive baserunning that his speed made look easy.
Others have talked about it in other threads. Walker is really good at going from first to third although he isn’t particularly fast. Cutch, on the other hand, for all his awesome speed doesn’t appear to me to have yet mastered the nuances of stealing bases or running the bases.
It goes back to the fact that this team needs to do everything right in order to be competitive. Before the all-star break, they seemed get some breaks and the smaller errors that still occurred almost every night got overlooked. With things not going the team’s way since the ASB those little things, like the Cutch/Doumit not hit-and-run in the seventh last night, stand out as glaring mistakes.
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Dave, just out of curiosity, do you have a link on the break-even point? I ask because I know the break-even is typically between 67-75 percent, but it changes based on the run environment. I would think the depressed run-scoring environment this year would make the break-even point very low, but I wasn’t able to find that out for sure.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 27, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
(By “very low,” I mean near the bottom of that 67-75 percent range.)
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 27, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
(And it varies based on the situation, obviously.)
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 27, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is an old article....
from Joe Sheehan that puts it at around 75%. If generally been walking around thinking it was just a touch below that. I’ll take a look around for some other stuff.
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I did before writing the article. Couldn’t find much.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 27, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I figured...
you did, LOL. I found a few things, but I’m comfortable with your idea of between 67-75%. I’m not sure any analysis, no matter how granular, is going to be able to give a more definite answer than that given all the moving parts.
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Yeah. It’s all just an abstract way of summarizing a really complicated phenomenon anyway. (I don’t think a more granular analysis would make Hurdle look particularly good, either, though.)
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 27, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Try this one
From beyond the box score.
The game-state makes a difference to the breakeven point. Sometimes the outs are more important than the bases.
There is a more historical graph near the bottom of this discussion here, on Tango’s blog.
by Wizard of Woz on Aug 29, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone in another thread, JRoth I think
mentioned that the estimated breakeven point for the SB success rate has been revised downward to around 67% in the past few years. I don’ t think he had a link either though.
Also, for a team with below average power like the Pirates, one would think that the breakeven point would be a little lower than for most other teams.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 27, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Short observation:
It appears to me that several (not an overwhelming amount, but several) of the CS lately have been the result of botched hit-and-runs.
They need to execute better, obviously.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
i agree with hurdle...
take advantage of the obvious speed this team possesses. tabata/presley/cutch/d’arnaud/paul and even harrison could drive opposing teams nuts.
I say green light all the time for runners.
They could use the practice out there and base stealing isn’t about speed ask Pujols or even Jason Bay. There is no reason this team can’t have 3 to 4 guys with 30 plus stolen bases. They have enough raw speed to beat a lot out. I would be curious what percent of balls thrown to second and also third are even accurate enough to tag runners out. I remember when Jones use to be pretty good at stealing bases.
by Joey Mooney on Aug 27, 2011 10:36 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's a fair point....
about Pujols and Bay, but they also bring the element of surprise (not that they should be able to, but do, as Pujols did last night). Tabata, Cutch, etc. don’t have that advantage.
The “practice” part you reference, to me isn’t a speed issue, it’s a mental understand of the pitcher, his move, the count, the game situation and more. Unfortunately some of that comes with experience, though some, d’Arnaud being the obvious answer, pick it up much quicker than others.
The Hammer Speaks
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Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
"Clint Hurdle Wants Pirates To Steal More," huh?
I think Clint Hurdle should manage less, but that’s just me.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Aug 27, 2011 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hurdle wants the Pirates to steal more...
but Cutch went almost a month…June 26th through July 24th…with NO stolen base attempts. How does he explain that?
He addressed....
that repeatedly at the time. He put it totally on Cutch to the point where they were going to give him the steal sign to make him run. He definitely addressed it because I asked him to and it didn’t catch him off guard.
I don’t have the data in front of me, but it feels to me that this has happened a few times in Cutch’s career. When he get’s thrown out a few times, I get the sense that he tends to put the brakes on. Started very slowly this year after getting caught and took awhile to get his numbers up.
The Hammer Speaks
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Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Sorry not sure how I double posted
by Horace Clarke on Aug 27, 2011 1:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
do the pirates have a baserunning coach?
… because rickey henderson was a coach with the mets for a couple years… he worked with the a’s last season too, but afaik, he doesn’t have a full-time role with any club at the moment… the pirates have a bunch of guys in the organization who have the speed to be excellent base stealers, but I’m sure they could all stand to learn something from the king…
maybe he could teach hurdle to pick HIS spots too… so many times it feels like opposing teams know the steal is coming… being predictable can’t help the success rate…
by Captain Easychord on Aug 27, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions
I'll say that they need to do something besides just run more
I’m pretty frustrated because our guys often get thrown out by a mile and, at least while I’ve been watching, we’ve hardly thrown anybody out in the last month or so. It seems like even guys who don’t steal much have been cruising into second uncontested against us lately.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 27, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
McCutchen is the key to more SB's...
plain and simple Cutch needs to take this part of his game to the next level. He should be stealing 50 SB’s per season and if he wants to be an elite player he needs to figure out how to get there. Speed is a major part of his game. He’s likely never going to hit 35-40 HR’s but he was blessed with plus/plus speed and he needs to make it play. I don’t want to hear the three-hole excuse either because it’s not as if the Pirates have a legitmate clean-up hitter behind him.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
Disagree
The last thing we need is for McCutchen to focus on 50 steals, which is of marginal benefit compared to the toll it takes on a player’s body. Keeping him healthy and in the lineup is far more important than racking up big steal numbers.
I don't want him focussing on a number necessarily (I know I said 50 but that was just an arbitrary number)...
I want him to improve reading pitcher’s moves. McCutchen is young and a few years away from having to worry about the wear and tear that stealing bases has on the body. Hell he may only be with the team three more seasons anyway. The Pirates have an asset in McCutchen that is not being fully utilized and for the Pirates to win they need to maximize all of their assets. Just my opinion but you bring up a good point about wear and tear that often gets overlooked when discussing stolen bases.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
As Mivkey Mantle said when asked about
Cansecos 40/40: “Shit, if I knew that was important, I’d have done it whey year.”
by Horace Clarke on Aug 27, 2011 9:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm all for them stealing more bases...
As long as they’re safe when they do it. Which they haven’t been.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 27, 2011 3:51 PM EDT reply actions
running/stealing is like anything else......
……it’s about learning and you learn by doing. The current roster is a mix of young players and older, core-type players who haven’t had much in the way of teaching (the basics IMO) at the ML level with past coaching staffs. Hurdle is correct to expect this team learn and execute the basics, such as bunting, stealing, effective running, etc. As Dave rightfully points out this team, and all good teams, need to do everything well. It’s a learning curve and based on the stats provided by Dave and Charlie it’s an area that needs improvement…….but you only improve by doing.
by Marooned Pirate on Aug 27, 2011 4:35 PM EDT reply actions
How do Pirates rank in total bases stolen??
Successful steals wise, what is total for Pirates and rank among other NL teams ??
The Pirates are 3rd worst in CS...
and they are 2nd in sacrifice bunts which puts them near the top of the league right now in giving outs away. This doesn’t even take into consideration baserunning mistakes. Per Fangraphs they are 5th worst in the league in giving runs away on the bases (-5.6). So all in all, they are absolutely terrible at playing small ball. Ironic when so many people believe they MUST play small ball to win given the lack of power hitters in the lineup.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
I do not understand the Pirates' Coaching System
And by “do not understand”, I’m admitting I know nothing about who does what and how. As Cpt. Easychord suggests above, the Bucs could hire a baserunning expert to audit that function of the team. Top to bottom audit, including player technique, signs, etc. And all aspects…stealing, H&R, taking extra base. What would that cost…$200K? Instead, I’m guessing Silverio and Banister are in charge of this function? I see the same problem with the catching function…framing, throwing, etc. Which coach is responsible for corrective action and improvement of catching? It would seem that an organization that spends $80M on player personnel could throw a few bucks at outside experts to advise and improve these functions. Or is it too old school for a field manager to give up control or admit his coaches are not up to the job?
by Central*Scrutinizer on Aug 27, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd defintely throw some money...
at an old base stealer and see what he could do for the team. Maybe Vince Coleman could use some work.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!

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