Eight Questions To Ponder Down The Stretch
There are 30 games left in the season after today. The W/L record since the ASB has been disappointing and makes the outcome of the remaining games a lot less important than they would be were the team still challenging for the NL Central title or even around .500--obviously. But, as always, the games aren't meaningless. The list of things to watch is pretty long and when the team does actually expand to 33-35 players next week, will only get longer.
I could make a list of 25 things to watch for. "Will Matt Hague get called up and how will he do in his 30 PAs if he does?" would be one item on the list, but realistically, that isn't going to tell us much. I've tried to cull the list down to things that will be meaningful in determining how the team takes shape next year. YMMV.
1.) How will Charlie Morton, James MacDonald and Jeff Karstens hold up over the last month?
Karstens, the biggest positive surprise this season, looks like he may not make it to the finish line. All three are guaranteed to be in the rotation next year and I'll be interested to see how they finish and if any of the three get shut down before the season ends.
2.) Can Alex Presley continue what he did in his first month?
If he does, barring a trade, next year's opening day outfield is the one you have seen the past few nights. Exciting? Sure. OBP? Yep. Power? 35 homers between the three of them.
3.) Who plays shortstop the last 30 games? (See Poll at the bottom)
If Ronny Cedeno plays almost every day, that would be a clear signal they are going to pick up his $3 million option, which I fully endorse at this point. I can't see the team going into next season with Chase d'Arnaud as the starting shortstop unless he gets at least 25 starts the rest of the way and dramatically improves his level of play. Brandon Wood is not a realistic option.
4.) Do Brad Lincoln and Ross Ohlendorf have futures in Pittsburgh?
I was calling for Lincoln to take Ohlendorf's spot in May until Karstens turned into Greg Maddux-lite. I think his ceiling is now a back-end starter, but we should know more in a month. I'm guessing Ohlendorf gets non-tendered. I can't see paying him $2-2.5 million. He'll get 3-5 starts to suggest otherwise.
5.) Does Derrek Lee do anything to make the Pirates consider signing him in the offseason?
Garrett Jones' streaky performance continues to be a big variable. Jones would make a solid fourth outfielder particularly with the Pirates' lack of power. He'll be on the team next year, even as a Super Two-eligible player, but in what role remains unclear. The failure of the Lyle Overbay Era probably means most fans would be against signing Lee, but I'm open to it.
6.) Does Chris Snyder make it back & how does Ryan Doumit do down the stretch?
It is not out of the question the Pirates look to bring one of these two back on a cheaper deal. I'm guessing they would prefer Snyder. Can he get back for 5-10 games and show that he is healthy?
UPDATE: This note from Rob Biertempfel says Snyder has an "outside chance" of playing again this season.
7.) Does Bryan Morris get the call? Does Evan Meek get a few innings?
Justin Wilson is not coming up. Rudy Owens is not coming up. Jeff Locke is not coming up. I'm the only guy in the world who thinks Matt Hague may not come up. (I'd rather see Derrek Lee play 20 games. Hague isn't going to start at first next year.) Bryan Morris is the only guy who interests me. I think he will get the call.
The Pirates could have an extraordinarily strong bullpen next year. With all the appropriate caveats the following are all in the mix:
RHPs: Joel Hanrahan, Meek, Jose Veras, Chris Resop, Jason Grilli, Chris Leroux, Morris, Daniel McCutchen, Lincoln, Jared Hughes
LHPs: Tony Watson, Daniel Moskos, Justin Wilson
8.) Does Pedro Alvarez come back up and play?
This topic has been tarred and feathered, so I'll just add that I'm actually more interested in seeing how management handles this than what the actual results are because they won't mean much. My guess is they call him up and he doesn't make more than five starts.
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I voted yes,
mostly because three mill for a year isn’t really that much in the grand scheme of things. That said, I’d still like to see him and Chase split time pretty evenly next year, unless Chase is playing full time in AAA. I still think he’s our shortstop of the future, and 26 bad games in his first taste of the big leagues certainly won’t change my mind. I hope he does well the rest of the year, but I don’t see it as make or break.
I really don't understand...
the love for Chase d’Arnaud. I’m rooting for the guy. He’s fast, hustles and …um and…
Last year he had an OPS of .708 in over 600 PAs on AA Altoona. This year he has an OPS of .717 in over 300 PAs in AAA Indy and .529 in over 100 with the Pirates. He looked terrible in the field making 4 error in 14 games at short (along with 3 more at third).
Sure his major league sample size is small, but his minor league numbers, which included a very high walk rate, don’t suggest in any way he is going to be even as good as Ronny at the plate, let alone in the field
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
David,
I wish you’d come right out and say what you mean, instead of couching it in vague things like statistics.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 27, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s fast, he hustles…he’s strong, he has a good arm. I don’t think he’s an ideal SS (lacks the smooth actions), but he could be a good starting 2b or a utility man.
He would not be a better starting 2B than Walker
And he would not, at this point, be a better starting SS than Cedeno.
Utility guy, maybe. And maybe he even has a future as a SS. But he’s not a starter at any position right now unless he plays some other-wordly, Ozzie Smith type defense.
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Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 28, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
He has a much better approach at the plate...
which leads me to believe he will be a better hitter than Cedeno once he finishes developing. He also has a lot more speed with the best home to first time on the Pirates so he should get his fair share of infield hits. Will D’Arnaud be better than Cedeno next season? Probably not. Is there a good chance he will be better than Cedeno a couple of years from now? I think so. The catch is, in order for Chase to develop he has to play. So he either needs to get significant time in Pittsburgh or he should be in AAA next year. I wouldn’t be comfortable going into next season handing Cedeno a full time job. I think you extend him and let him compete with D’Arnaud. I think Wood fills the same role next season unless he can hit himself into more time and there’s obviously room on the roster for Wood, D’Arnaud, Cedeno and a mystery third basemen. I think it’s a no brainer that Ronny gets extended. How long he holds on to the stater’s job is another story.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
I couldn't agree with you more
I’m going to be pretty upset if they don’t exercise Ceden’s option and he goes on to outplay whomever we put at SS by a significant margin. It will be interesting to see what their plan is if they do let Cedeno walk as Dejan has suggested that they will.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 27, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally agree
Especially because Cedeno needs to be pushed by competition to even be competent. He did okay this year because he was pushed by competition, even if it was just by the likes of Wood, Ciriaco, and Rodriguez.
This club has had some bad luck
this season, and Derrek Lee is just one example. We remember how promising his start was with the Pirates before getting hurt, so we’ll have to see what happens.
I’m against signing Derrek Lee. One good game is not a good enough reason to sign him for 162. No more players on the downside of their career.
Derrek Lee on the downside of his career
is probably better than either Matt Hague or a free agent 1B that the Pirates have a realistic chance of signing.
I’m not saying he should definitely be signed, but at the least we should offer him arbitration. If he takes it, great, and if not, great, we get a comp pick.
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Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 28, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not saying he should definitely be signed, but at the least we should offer him arbitration. If he takes it, great, and if not, great, we get a comp pick.
This topic was tossed around when they traded for him. I think if he is offered arbitration he will accept (same with Ludwick for that matter). I just don’t see a demand for either player and their best chance to make money would be to accept arbitration.
"It's a great day for hockey" - Badger Bob
by StripesForLife on Aug 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather see Wood
I’m not sure why he’s not a realistic option. He was a beast in the minors and although he hasn’t as productive a mlb career as he showed in the minors, he might be just a little slow adjusting. I don’t think he is like LaRoche and can’t play, and I believe he is only a year older than Pedro who has much less track record and is still being counted on as a mid order star for this team. He fields better than d’Arnaud and hits better than Cedeno and we know what Cedeno is already. I think or could hit .265 with 20-25 homeruns if he played everyday. I’d like to see him start and mix d’Arnaud in with him. If you can get 20-25 homeruns from him that will help with no power in the outfield. The Bucs should be better next year but still not contending, I’d like to see what Wood could do over a full season with majority playing time than Cedeno for another year than prob won’t be back the next year anyhow.
He can't cut it full-time defensively
and he has a questionable bat, whether or not you think he can all of a sudden do things he’s never done before in his career.
Searage told me...
he didn’t feel great at the end of his last start (although appeared fine the next day), Rob Biertempfel said he had a huge ice bag on his shoulder and elbow after the game last night (probably just precautionary after a side session) and Karstens himself has said he is gutting it out and everyone is a bit banged up but it’s his job to take the ball. Also, his innings count is already 21% over last year. Five more starts could get that number close to 50%.
So, just speculating on a bunch of, possibly meaningless, things.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
If Karsten's Madux light performance is for real
he’s far too valuable next year to take a chance with this year. With five more starts possible it makes more sense to to spread his innings elsewhere, even if it means marginally more losses.
I doubt Derrek Lee will be back.
I see Neal working the phones moving some prospects for a 1B this offseason
I’d like to see him add a blocked or seemingly failed prospect. It didn’t work with Clement or Milledge, but it’s an approach a small-market team needs to keep trying. Maybe Travis Snider, Clint Robinson etc.
Not sure about Snider. Not necessarily opposed to the idea, I just don’t think it’s worth giving up much. He’s a had a few shots in the Majors and hasn’t shown any of the ability scouts saw in him aside from some brief flashes here and there.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 28, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Besides
The Pirates are going to pull off a major coup and sign Albert Pujols this offseason.
Or perhaps
Prince Fielder, except that I think that Milwaukee is going to do whatever is necessary to re-sign him – especially if the Brewers make it deep into the post-season.
Pick-UP Cedeno's option
I vote “yes” to Cedeno’s option. The price is probably reasonable (I am too lazy to research this). If D’enard or Wood make a push to start during ST, then Cedeno could probably bring a decent return in a trade.
Posted this on earlier yhread
Whig had petered out, so I’ll stick it here also. There was a comment previously that Ronny may be gone because Hurdle has had it w him. Seems like baseball guys just don’t like Ronny. I sat on several occasions w advance scouts at PNC and to a man they dislike Ronny’s game, very strongly. They’re openly derisive even when the guy makes a play. Don’t know if it’s personality, brain farts, unrealized potential or what, but there’s something almost visceral there. I tried to argue the guys been not terrible, but no one was buying.
by Horace Clarke on Aug 27, 2011 1:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
IMO you gotta keep the guy at that price
unless you bring someone else in. Im all for DA competing in spring, but even if he beats Ronny out, this year has shown how you need some depth. At this point Ronny is only proven MLB SS you have, howeverinally above replacement he may be. The fact that he has thrown and caught this year makes him a guy at SS who justifies his WAR.
by Horace Clarke on Aug 27, 2011 1:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Voted 'yes' too
The worst case scenario is we’re paying $3 million for a backup infielder who can play above average to plus defense up the middle, b/c someone broke out to have better season i.e. D’arnaud, Mercer, Wood, random guy out the stands…..
If paying $3 million for a backup MI is the worst managerial decision made in the next year, then we’re probably going to be in pretty good shape.
I'd actually rather see CH go than RC.
If Hurdle has had it with Cedeno, why does he keep playing him?
I think it is a fine idea to mostly play Wood and d’Arnaud at SS for the rest of the season to see how they do. Mayber that starts today as I am expecting to see Chase in the starting lineup.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 27, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Given a choice between Hurdle and Cedeno, I’d take Cedeno. Cedeno is the best SS the Pirates have now and will likely be the best they have next year. Who cares if the manager and a bunch of scouts don’t care much for Cedeno. If he’s better than the next guy and the next guy lacks a high ceiling, then the team must go with Cedeno. If Hurdle can’t understand this or refuses to understand it, then he needs to go.
s.zielinski
“The Pirates could have an extraordinarily strong bullpen next year.”
If the Pirates can trade Hanrahan for something good, the should do it.
Dear Mr. Fair-Weather Fan
That figures. Hanrahan has been lights out all year long, so now that he has a few more human-type games, you want to sell him to the highest bidder.
Obviously you have not followed Hanrahan all year long, nor are you a true Pirates’ fan. That being the case: If you are not a Pirates’ fan, then why do you bother to post here?
Just some OF stats
Power? 35 homers between the three of them.
Giants: Cody Ross 10, Schierholtz 9, Burrell & Rowand have combined for 11
—Current 30 HR projects to 37 HR
Tigers: Boesch 16, Austin Jackson 8, Ordonez and Dirks have combined for 10
—Current 34 HR projects to 42 HR
Braves: Heyward 13, Hinkse 10, McLouth 4
—Current 27 HR projects to 33 HR (with McLouth or Bourne)
Indians: Sizemore 10, Choo 8, Brantley 7. Lots of injuries so I’ll add 6 from Kearns and Duncan
—Current 31HR projects to 38HR
If you are projecting the Bucs at 35 and add in conservatively 6HR from Jones in games where he plays OF and not 1B that’s 41 total. Doesn’t stack up too badly against some of the teams in serious playoff races. IF the Pirates can get some power from other positions, a 40ish HR OF wouldn’t be a problem. We all know that the other sources of power are a BIG if. Those teams (sans Tribe) also throw out a Cy Young candidate every 5 days which helps too. 4 out of 12 “contenders” ; not a majority but some proof that you don’t need 55+ from the OF to put up a good fight
I'm not focused
on power as a be-all, end-all. Just pointing out that high OBP is a must from that group.
Also, the teams you listed all have low power levels because guys missed significant time to injury (SF, CL) or had guys massively underperform expectations: Det,Ordonez, Atl, Heyward, et al.
None of those teams went into the season expecting < 40 HRs this season.
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Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
Extraordinarily Strong Bullpen?
With all the variables in year to year performance of relievers and all of the inexperience in the guys you listed I think this statement is entirely unsupportable. There are only two guys who would be locks for a spot (and maybe not even Meek) with the Phillies, Yankees, Redsox or the Braves yet we are extraordinarily strong? Veras, McCutcheon, Resop are all just as likely to revert back to their previous established level of performance. Huntington would do well to being in a few arms to compete again next spring.
some of those guys should be locks for the Phillies
The Phillies have had exactly two relievers who have been more than 0.1 wins above replacement (Madson and Bastardo) — while pitching WAR is a shaky stat, that’s an indication that their bullpen hasn’t been a strength. Veras at least would be an improvement over their middle-inning guys, probably Resop and maybe even Leroux as well.
(The Braves pen, I’ll grant you, is absolutely sick.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Aug 27, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Even the Braves pen
is pretty top-heavy, and I’m pretty sure DTodd put a conditional on that statement in the first place, not a guarantee
I wouldn’t mind Ohlendorf in the 6th starter/bullpen role for 2012, if the medicals are good enough.
Correia isn’t a decent major league pitcher at this point, so we’d have Lincoln or an outside pickup as 5th starter.
by Adam Reynolds on Aug 27, 2011 5:47 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
KC's 2 year deal is looking like a major pain in the ass right now
he’s either gonna clog up the roster or they’re gonna have to eat his salary.
Well, I'm in the minority here, but I voted "no"
Not that I think $3 million is too much for Cedeno, but there are a number of reasons that I think he won’t be back:
I think the Pirates go out and pick up a glove-first guy to be their starter next year. Very much like some of the guys they were rumored to be looking at this last off-season.. If they had 100% confidence in Cedeno, they wouldn’t have been so active in trying to upgrade the SS position last off-season. I don’t think Cedeno has done anything this year to alleviate the main concern that has plagued him his entire career: consistency. If the Pirates were looking so hard last year, when Cedeno still had a year left, they’re certainly going to be looking going into an option year.
I think the Pirates’ management’s frustrations with an inconsistent Cedeno can not be underestimated. Sometimes teams, rightly or wrongly, get rid of a guy that may be talented because they get frustrated not being able to accomplish what they want to do with that player.
I think sometimes it’s better to get a fresh start at a position with someone new, until a younger guy is ready to take over.
Also, I think it’s hard to build an organization of teaching guys to play the game “the right way”, when your starting shortstop has severe lapses of baseball judgement. It doesn’t set a good example for the younger guys on your team. It’s got to be tough to say to a young player, “well, yeah, Ronny makes a lot of stupid decisions in the field, but he’s just soooo talented….”
Even though I’m a huge fan of Brandon Wood (and I think he should be given a legitimate chance to be in the mix for the starting position next year—though he’s probably most valuable to the team in his current position), I don’t see a problem going into 2012 with a new SS that you bring in from the outside and you give d’Arnaud and Wood a chance in spring training.
There’s an awful lot of solid shortstops in the FA market this year, or the Pirates can go after a guy in a trade. They may even spend the same amount as they would have on Cedeno. This isn’t about Cedeno being too expensive or being worse than the guy you bring in, but sometimes it’s time to move on.
I think the Cedeno era in Pittsburgh comes to a close after this season.
"There’s an awful lot of solid shortstops in the FA market this year"
Pics or GTFO!
Jose Reyes doesn’t count either.
Today's active roster and "down the stretch" questions
I think today’s active roster is very close to the one we’ll see opening day 2012. They should get 99% of the playing time, to firm up their roles and cohesiveness, and see if they can develop a winning attitude. Most of the DL’d guys (Lee, Ludwick, Pearce, Maholm, Snyder, Hart) will be gone before ST and Correia and Meek have uncertain value going forward as well. Let them (and Ohlendorf, Paul, and Diaz) sit the rest of the year and try to trade them. We know their capabilities and don’t need to see any more. Alvarez will start 2012 at AAA so let him go somewhere else for instruction. Call up Gorkys and Marte and see if they produce as PR/PH/defense off the bench options. Call up pitchers just to burn innings and prevent career threatening injuries to core staff. Call up a catcher or 2 to enable Fort to replace Doumit in late innings. Goal #1 for the winter: use whatever disposable prospects’ value the Bucs have and money saved by not picking up options to acquire a solid front-line starter. 1B, SS, 3B, C, and OF are not the main problem and free-agent solutions are lacking.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Aug 27, 2011 8:24 PM EDT reply actions
Power
We don’t need power in the outfield, we got Pedro! Go Pedro! Where are the folks who bashed individuals like myself who simply stated he might be a bust. Still hope it pans out, but thinks are not looking good. As far as the power in the outfield, I think Tabata can pick it up. I love Presley’s game, so I want him out there everyday. I think the ability to create extra base hits out of would be singles can certainly help these guys. I would love to start the season with a these three guys, if they are all healthy. Keep Jones and find some guys with pop at the corner infield positions. Oh, we got Pedro never mind! LOL!
i propose this!
Alex presley as starting outfielder if he can finsh the season with an average in the range of .300 and obp near .350. …. really who else do we have or are we going to get?
GFJ starts at first next year. with hague and curry knocking on the door
Ronny stays, really who else? unless Josh Harrison gets some time at short and proves to not be terrible.
Speaking of Harrison, does he get the utility spot next year, i know he doesnt walk and will probably never be a regular, but he could definitely have a spot on this team next year,
And i think Karstens deserves a spot in the rotation next year, no matter what happens the rest of the year.
And I am loving Lincoln as a starter, he is NOT a reliever, thats for sure.
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