Karstens needs to be shut down immediately [UpdateX2]

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 10:23 AM EDT

[Update the Second: OK, just did some more research on the underlying "Rule of 30." Turns out that "Minor league innings are somehow not the same as major league innings." It's not clear why this is, but it is. That said, the linked article also mentions a piece that Will Carroll did with Nate Silver that seems to conclusively show that it's pretty exclusively a young pitcher issue. Bottom line: Karstens may be tired, but he's at no added risk of injury/long term ineffectiveness.]

[Update the First: I made a stupid mistake. Karstens threw 16 innings in Indy last year, meaning that his total IP for 2010 was 138.2. 152.0 isn't a big increase from that. If he makes 5 more starts, he will be approaching a really significant increase, but he simply isn't there yet. My apologies.]

24%

That's the increase in IP from 2010 to 2011 for Karstens. That's from 122.2 to 152 as of this morning. 122.2 was itself a 12.5% jump over the previous season.

We all know that research shows, pretty conclusively, that overly large jumps in IP wreck pitchers. Karstens isn't young, but he's not old, either - still 28. Maybe 24% and 30 IP isn't big enough to trigger alarm bells (although I doubt that to be the case), but combined with the lack of life his pitches showed yesterday, I don't see how they can responsibly keep running him out there.

Now, I understand all the issues: they want to see what he's capable of if he's to come into 2012 as a rotation member. He wants to prove that he's durable despite being skinny. There's nobody to actually pick up his remaining starts (Aaron Thompson 5 more times?).

But come on. He's had a surprisingly great season. Before yesterday his ERA was at 3.09, and his xFIP is still under 4.00. He's now hit a wall, and it's time to declare victory and go home. Maybe they can skip a turn and give him another start or two on long rest, but taking him over 160 IP strikes me as reckless.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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He's a pitcher

let him pitch. It’s the only way to build up his arm

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by WVPiratesfan on Aug 29, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

That's on page 12 of

Dusty Baker’s Guide to Managing a Major League Team.
Forward by Mark Prior.

by Wizard of Woz on Aug 29, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

There is a difference between what Dusty did and what I'm talking about

200+ innings on a young arm is dumb, but as a 28 year old Karstens’ arm should be developed enough to handle 170

by WVPiratesfan on Aug 29, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

By that logic...

…my 38-year old arm should be able to handle at least 250 innings.

I’ll call NH this afternoon and see if he’s interested in giving me a contract. Mind you, I haven’t pitched since Little League and have a broken collarbone that forces my shoulder joint forward out of socket slightly, but I think I can take on the workload.

It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.

by Bishop1973 on Aug 29, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

No it doesn't

by my logic a pitcher who has conditioned his arm by throwing a good amount in his life should be able to handle a increase in his work load

by WVPiratesfan on Aug 29, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

He's 28

with average, at best, stuff, let him pitch.

by hilltoppeer on Aug 29, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

We all know that research shows, pretty conclusively, that overly large jumps in IP wreck pitchers.

Does it really? I know that is kind of the conventional wisdom these days but I’ve never seen any studies to back it up.

by maguro on Aug 29, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

+1

References please.

by lambert58 on Aug 29, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

And it doesn't really support the notion that large jumps in IP wreck pitchers anyway

by maguro on Aug 29, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks, but...

Gassko’s “study” involves performance and not injury, which is what I assumed JRoth meant by “wreck pitchers”. Also, Gassko makes the point of points in his study. He states that “correlation does not mean causation”. It could easily be argued that neither Verducci’s or Gassko’s studies scratched the surface with respect to including all pertinent variables (e.g., early training, conditioning, arm angle, genetics, etc.).

by lambert58 on Aug 29, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

If Karstens is not DL'd soon

Most likely (with 6 starts remaining) he could be pushing for 200 IP

Which means he is most likely a lengthy DL candidate for 2012.

by BadAndy on Aug 29, 2011 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

JRoth is right

Especially since Karstens is not a big guy. The more games we lose now the better the draft pick.

by senatorblutarsky on Aug 29, 2011 10:58 AM EDT reply actions

The more games we lose now the better the draft pick.

for the 1657847th time, you don’t tank an MLB season to get better draft picks.

by theatrain on Aug 29, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I'll take the 7th pick over the 14th pick everytime

You’re crazy if you think a few extra wins is going to make a difference. The Pirates need a loaded farm system.

by senatorblutarsky on Aug 29, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

in every draft

there is a guy picked lower who turns out to be much better than a guy picked higher. The difference between a 7th and a 14th pick is next to negligible in the MLB draft. I don’t even agree with the idea of tanking for draft picks in the NFL. it just ain’t right.

by theatrain on Aug 30, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice tag.

But I have to disagree. Despite the slim frame, anyone with brows like that can handle the load.

by lambert58 on Aug 29, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually

I believe you are refering to the Verducci or Year after effect. Which states, “pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform” Will Carrol found that pitchers who exceed this threshold tend to get injured.

The key here is under 25. Karstens, could possibly be at risk, but chances are he isn’t due to age or i.e. being physically mature and the number innings he has previously pitched in his entire professional career.

See this Link

by BSpar on Aug 29, 2011 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

Youth

I knew the effect was mostly on young pitchers – that’s why I wrote “Karstens isn’t young”. Theoretically the large number of IP over his career has led to some sort of cumulative arm strength despite not having thrown close to this many innings in years (I didn’t look closely enough at his Fangraphs listing; I thought that he hadn’t ever thrown this many, but was wrong. In 2006 he threw 147.2, and in 2005 he threw 169.0). But by that argument Mariano Rivera could throw 200 innings next year; does anyone here believe that?

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

2006

He actually topped 190 innings if you count minor league and major league time.

by ElDuce on Aug 29, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Turns out it doesn't matter

From Will Carroll, who invented the “Rule of 30” before learning that Tom Verducci beat him to it:

The problem is that the Rule is based on Major League innings only, not a combination of Major and Minor League innings. I wish I could explain why this is so, but my best efforts to find a translation for minor league innings remains just a dream. Using the best translation in the business, the Davenport Translations, the ones that are at the heart of Baseball Prospectus’ efforts over the last 13 years, doesn’t work for translating workload. Adjustments to the translations haven’t come up with consistent results either, leaving me with this corrolary to the Rule: Minor league innings are somehow not the same as major league innings.[emphasis added]

Now I need to update the post a second time.

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

"Now I need to update the post a second time."

Or be smarter than Verducci and Carroll and stop trying to draw conclusions from insufficient data.

by lambert58 on Aug 29, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

But by that argument Mariano Rivera could throw 200 innings next year

Are you serious? Rivera can leap tall buildings in a single bound and make a baseball bend around the strike zone, doing both at the same time.

200 innings? Psshhtt.

by lambert58 on Aug 29, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Bigger mistake

I can’t believe I didn’t look at his MiL IP for last year. Only 16, but that takes his 2010 total up to 138.2, from which 152 is an incidental increase. I’ll update the post to reflect this.

I do still think that he needs a few days off. He’s pitching tired, and 5 more starts would be (one would hope) another 30+ IP, somewhere north of 180. That would be a 30 IP jump from last year, and close to double what he was throwing in ’07, ’08, and ’09.

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

Karstens supposedly has a sore shoulder

My vote: Season’s over.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Aug 29, 2011 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

agreed

we’re a couple of days from expanded rosters — get some kids some starts and shut him down.

Hell of a season – def. one of the bright spots

by insane_sanity on Aug 29, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Shut him down if he’s hurt, but let’s not count on Jeff Karstens for next season. He’s a nice guy to have around, but he lacks the stuff to be anything more than a 5th starter/long reliever.

by bolton on Aug 29, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

ORLY?

By FIP, he’s the 78th-best qualified SP in MLB. By xFIP, he’s 66th. So, on average, he’s pitched like a 3rd starter.

That said, I’d be happy to have 5 better SPs in camp next spring. I just don’t know where you’re expecting to find them.

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Back at ya, JR.

by lambert58 on Aug 29, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he’s had a fluke season. Flukes can happen twice, but the Pirates shouldn’t count on it.

by bolton on Aug 29, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd venture to say

that what you are saying about could happen to Karstens, actually did happen to Gorzelanny in 07 when assclown Jim Tracy sent him out for 201.2 Innings. Wheels completely fell off after that.

by BSpar on Aug 29, 2011 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

They would probably be best served

by limiting his outings, but I personally don’t that the extra work load is all that worriesome.

by BSpar on Aug 29, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

but I personally don’t think that the extra work load is all that worriesome

by BSpar on Aug 29, 2011 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

Watch out, BSpar

You keep posting like that, your keyboard will be wrecked.

And yeah, I was totally thinking about Gorzo.

by JRoth95 on Aug 29, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

The number of innings pitched is an oversimplification of what really counts.

Karstens, unlike James McDonald, for example, could be considered a really “efficient” pitcher. If Karstens has more McDonald-esque “stressful” innings (innings with 20+ pitches, or a higher number of pitches with baserunners, etc) than an average pitcher, more weight should be given to his workload. NH talked about this on his show at least once before. So Karstens can plausibly handle a greater increase in innings than McDonald, as has been the case thus far this season.

PS if anybody has some numbers to back this up (i.e. Karstens pitch count by inning vs McDonald pitch count by inning), I’d love to know where to get this. Fangraphs?

by 4thline on Aug 29, 2011 4:40 PM EDT reply actions

Not sure about pitch count by inning, but JMac has thrown 2449 pitches this year vs 2203 for Karstens even though Karstens has 7 more IP.

I would guess that JMac has had many more innings of 20+ and 25+ pitches thrown, though I don’t know where to get that data.

by maguro on Aug 29, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

The more data we gather on pitchers breaking down,

the more it seems that we really will never get a definitive answer as far as why pitchers get hurt. The line between right and wrong as far as handling pitchers seems so thin that the only thing organizations can do is take precautions, and even thats not guaranteed to work.
By today’s standards, Don Drysdale had a pretty scary delivery that raised a lot of warning signs as far as injury…but he was a horse for 12 years before he broke down. And even then, couldn’t that be attributed to the workloads rather than the delivery? You can almost look at a different point in a pitcher’s career and say “well, he had the big workload jump here and got hurt the next,” and while that may be right,, you’ll never know for sure.
As for Karstens…I’d give him maybe one more start and then ease off him either completely, or not at all. The Bucs don’t really have much to gain by pushing him out there every fifth day.

by NastyNate82 on Aug 29, 2011 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

"...the more it seems that we really will never get a definitive answer as far as why pitchers get hurt."

Players today are pussies.

Ask Bob Gibson.

Free your ass and your mind will follow.

by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 29, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Some of it may be due to overspecialization (Gibson has only to look at the current manager of the team he played for to thank for that), some of it may be due to being overcautious, and yeah…Gibson may have something there too about players being a little candy-assed about pitching too.
But you can pick just about any decade thru the 80’s and its littered with pitchers who had sore arms and no one ever had a freakin clue as to why or how it happened and they just faded away completely (i.e. Karl Spooner). Maybe the onslaught of information makes everyone a little too skittish about the whole thing, but it may save some guys careers in the future who otherwise would have burned out.

by NastyNate82 on Aug 29, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude got his leg broken on a comebacker and stayed in the game

that’s manly right there

by WVPiratesfan on Aug 29, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I heard that the reason today's pitchers aren't able to handle the workload

of their older brethren is that they throw more pitches that are hard on their arms.

by WestCoastBuc on Aug 30, 2011 6:39 AM EDT up reply actions

A reasonable solution.....

…..has been determined by the team.

Karstens will skip his next start. Meanwhile, we will pass through roster expansion on Sept. 1 before Karstens’ next scheduled start on Sept. 2. Thus, someone like Aaron Thompson or Jeff Locke can start on Sept. 2, and give Karstens and the team a full 10 days to further evaluate the situation going forward.

If Karstens’ arm recovers, he can start again on or about Sept. 7. If he’s still suffering from fatigue, Thompson or Locke (or whoever) can make another start.

by magnumo on Aug 30, 2011 3:31 PM EDT reply actions